Calculated Risk http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/ is the best place to get the real truth about the housing market. Below is a shocking revelation. The NAR has been overstating existing home sales for years at a clip of 10% to 15%. If they can only work their way up to 25%, they would qualify to work for the Federal Government.
In other breaking news the NAR has declared “NOW IS THE BEST TIME TO BUY A HOUSE!!!”
This organization is a disgrace. It started with their chief lying economist David Lereah who continually argued that the housing market was not in a bubble and that it was the best time to buy in 2005. Who could ever forget his 2005 classic book Are You Missing the Real Estate Boom?: Why Home Values and Other Real Estate Investments Will Climb Through The End of The Decade—And How to Profit From Them.
Larry Yun, the current lying mouthpiece for a corrupt organization, continues the tradition. And now we find out that no only do they spew false propaganda, but they fake their own data to make the housing market appear stronger than it is. Shocking. I can’t believe that whores can also be liars.
by CalculatedRisk on 1/27/2011 10:00:00 AM
Special Note: I’ve been discussing the National Association of Realtors (NAR) existing home sales data with several analysts. As an example, Keith Jurow has been sending me data from local areas, and also calculations based on data from Inside Mortgage Finance suggesting that the NAR existing home sales data is overstating sales. I’ve also looked at other sources, and I think the NAR started over estimating sales in 2006 or 2007 (perhaps by 5% or so in 2007), and the errors have increased since then (perhaps 10% or 15% or more in 2009 and 2010). I expect the NAR will revise down sales for these years in the not too distant future (I’m hearing whispers of coming revisions – but I haven’t been able to confirm this with the NAR).
From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Continue Uptrend
The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator, increased 2.0 percent to 93.7 based on contracts signed in December from a downwardly revised 91.9 in November [revised down from 92.2]. The index is 4.2 percent below the 97.8 mark in December 2009. The data reflects contracts and not closings, which normally occur with a lag time of one or two months.
This suggests existing home sales in January and February will be somewhat higher than in December, although – based on mortgage applications – I think we might see a slight decline in sales.