So Iran shoots down one of our drones. Now the questions. Are we flying spy drones over Iran in order to provoke them into doing something stupid? Did we purposely allow it to be shot down? Will Iran’s blustering and threats to retaliate allow the U.S. to create a foreign conflict in order to take the focus off our imploding economy? China declared last week that they would be willing to go to war in support of Iran. Are we approaching an Archduke Ferdinand moment when countries are forced to choose sides in order to not lose face? Could our Fourth Turning War be just over the horizon? If conflict starts with Iran, what will happen to the price of oil? How many more liberties and freedoms will be sacrificed when the oligarchs lead us into another undeclared war of choice?
If you don’t fly spy drones over foreign countries that we are not at war with, they can’t get shot down. How would we react if China or Russia was flying spy drones over the U.S.?
The ignorant masses will be convinced that Iran is at fault and deserves to be obliterated. Comfortably numb.
Iran Military Shoots Down US Drone, Threatens Response
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/04/2011 10:05 -0500
From PressTV:
A senior Iranian military official says Iran’s Army has shot down a remote-controlled reconnaissance drone operated by the US military in the eastern part of the country.
The informed source said on Sunday that Iran Army’s electronic warfare unit successfully targeted the American-built RQ-170 Sentinel stealth aircraft after it crossed into Iranian airspace over the border with neighboring Afghanistan.
He added that the US reconnaissance drone has been seized with minimum damage.
The RQ-170 is a stealth unmanned aircraft designed and developed by Lockheed Martin Company.
The US military and the CIA use the drone to launch missile strikes in Afghanistan and in Pakistan’s northwestern tribal region.
The unnamed Iranian military official further added that “due to the clear border violation, the operational and electronic measures taken by the Islamic Republic of Iran’s Armed Forces against invading aircraft will not remain limited to the Iran’s borders.
The report comes as the United States has beefed up its military presence in and around the Persian Gulf region in recent months in the wake of popular uprising in Bahrain.
The US Department of Defense says Washington is closely monitoring the developments in Bahrain, which is the headquarters of the US Navy’s Fifth Fleet and holds some 4,200 US service members.
From Reuters:
Iran’s military said on Sunday it had shot down a U.S. reconnaissance drone aircraft in eastern Iran, a military source told state television.
“Iran’s military has downed an intruding RQ-170 American drone in eastern Iran,” Iran’s Arabic-language Al Alam state television network quoted the unnamed source as saying.
“The spy drone, which has been downed with little damage, was seized by the Iranian armed forces.”
Iran shot down the drone at a time when it is trying to contain foreign reaction to the storming of the British embassy in Tehran on Tuesday, shortly after London announced that it would impose sanctions on Iran’s central bank in connection with Iran’s controversial nuclear enrichment programme.
Britain evacuated its diplomatic staff from Iran and expelled Iranian diplomats in London in retaliation, and several other EU members recalled their ambassadors from Tehran.
The attack dragged Iran’s relations with Europe to a long-time low.
Washington and EU countries have been discussing measures to restrict Iran’s oil exports since the United Nations nuclear watchdog issued a report in November with what it said was evidence that Tehran had worked on designing an atom bomb.
And from AP:
Iran’s semiofficial Fars news agency says the country’s armed forces have shot down an unmanned U.S. spy plane that violated Iranian airspace along its eastern border.
The report says the plane was an RQ170 type drone and is now in the possession of Iran’s armed forces. The Fars news agency is close to the powerful Revolutionary Guard.
Iran is locked in a dispute with the U.S. and its allies over Tehran’s disputed nuclear program, which the West believes is aimed at the development of nuclear weapons. Iran denies the accusations, saying its nuclear program is entirely peaceful.
It appears Iran plans to retaliate:
Iran’s response to the downed U.S. drone’s violation of its airspace will not be limited to the country’s borders, a military source told state television.
“The Iranian military’s response to the American spy drone’s violation of our airspace will not be limited to Iran’s borders any more,” Iran’s Arabic language Al Alam television quoted the military source as saying, without giving details.
Iran said in July it had shot down an unmanned U.S. spy plane over the holy city of Qom, near its Fordu nuclear site.
As a reminder from Stratfor, here is how the US navy was deployed most recently as of Wednesday. Looks like life for the Stennis boys is about to get exciting.
Did you notice that the drone is reported to be collected by the Iranians as mostly intact?
So it won’t be too long before some reverse engineering is done by the Chicoms and the Russkies and we start seing those things used against us!!!
But let not your heart be troubled.
Obama et al are in HI for a 17 day vacation so nothing will happen until he gets back.
Trojan Horse.
Fanfuckingtastic!
Minding our own business is completely alien to our massive, bloated, POS government.
EF
Here Are The Next Steps In The Escalating Middle East
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/04/2011 14:44 -0500
While everyone is focusing on what empty words and promises will come out of Europe this week which continues to valiantly, yet with utter futility, fight simple math, our friends at Religare Research remind us that there is a whole another theater of operations (pardon the phrase) that many are so far forgetting about located in the middle east which is far closer to what at the end of the day really matters: oil. As Emad Mostaque notes: ‘While North Africa is busily transitioning to a set of neo-Islamist, GCC-sponsored Sunni democracies (we are positive on this trend), Shia groups in the Middle East have started to stir. In this monthly we focus on some of the key elements of the Shia tradition that may have a significant impact on global markets in the near future.” Below are the key takeaways.
Potential flashpoint: Tensions could be inflamed on December 6th (Ashura) with Saudi Arabia meriting particular attention. This could lead to a sharp spike in oil. We are also highly cautious on Iraq, where violence could easily spark a civil war
Syrian endgame: As predicted earlier this year, December looks to be the crunch point for Syria. Elections or power transfer remain the likeliest outcomes.
Bahrain beginning: The arrest of five individuals plotting to blow up various targets in Bahrain last week including the Saudi-Bahraini causeway is a harbinger of potentially more terrorism to come. The Shia majority is nursing its wounds and without proper dialogue will start to lash out.
Iran & bombs: Warnings of an attack on Iran have been circulating for 30 years. It’s different this time and we see the probability of an attack rising sharply as we head into 2012 (probability 40% on a 12 month view from 0% last year). The only solution to this mess is dialogue, which has now effectively been taken off the table. We see January/February as the point of peak probability for military action.
disinfo
Last year’s disinfo?
http://www.reuters.com/article/2010/08/22/us-iran-military-drone-idUSTRE67L0K120100822
Apparently NATO didn’t get the memo:
http://news.sky.com/home/world-news/article/16123537
I’m so glad our Pres is enjoying his well-earned 17 days off. Campaigning is a bitch!
As the World Burns….
(Reuters) – The European Union is becoming skeptical about slapping sanctions on imports of Iranian oil, diplomats and traders say, as awareness grows that the embargo could damage its own economy without doing much to undercut to Iran’s oil revenues.
Oil accounts for 50 percent of Iranian budget revenues, and those arguing for sanctions say they can deprive Tehran of billions of dollars and derail what the West sees as Iran’s attempts to build a nuclear bomb.
But diplomats and oil industry insiders say Europe may calculate that even a small rise in oil prices as a result of an introduction of an EU-wide embargo would more than compensate Tehran for any losses from being obliged to re-route displaced supplies to Asia at discounted prices.
“Maybe the aim of sanctions is to help Italy, Spain and Greece to collapse and make the EU a smaller club,” one trader joked.
The remark reflects the growing unease that EU sanctions would hit hardest some of the continent’s weakest economies, because Iranian oil provides the highest share of their needs, not to mention the rest of the bloc.
“The likely increase in oil prices that would result from a ban would be felt by all (European) oil refiners, not just those that are big customers for Iranian oil,” ratings agency Fitch said last week.
An oil industry source in Greece, which mostly relies on Iranian oil, said: “Greece can’t be put with its back to the wall.”
The threat to Iran’s oil exports and fears about a possible military strike on its nuclear facilities have helped keep oil prices above $100 a barrel despite sluggish global growth and a gradual return of Libyan oil supplies.
Iran, the world’s fifth-largest oil exporter, has said it cannot rule out a self-imposed oil embargo to punish the West and on Sunday warned that oil prices could spike to $250 a barrel as a result of sanctions.
Reuters: Oil up near $111 on Iran supply risk concerns
Oil prices rose on Monday with Brent crude futures up near $111, extending last week’s gains as rising tensions between Iran and the West increased the risk of disruption to crude shipments by the world’s fifth-largest oil exporter.
Iran warned on Sunday that any move to block its oil exports would more than double crude prices with devastating consequences for a fragile global economy.
Brent crude was up $1.14 at $111.08 a barrel by 1313 GMT, after last week posting a gain of more than 3 percent, its best weekly gain since mid-October. Earlier Brent had pushed to an intraday high of $111.22 a barrel.
U.S. crude was up 81 cents to $101.77 a barrel, having posted a gain of 4.3 percent last week.
Christopher Bellew, an oil trader with Jefferies Bache in London, said that worries about Iran and Syria were helping to buoy oil prices. “If Iranian exports were suspended that would be very significant as the market is tight already,” he said.
The European Union is considering a ban – already in place in the United States – on Iranian oil imports. The storming of the British Embassy in Tehran last week has opened the door for tougher action against Iran which is thought to be working on a nuclear bomb.
“The risk of disruptions to oil supplies remains high,” said Christophe Barret, global oil analyst at Credit Agricole CIB. An embargo on Iranian oil “would introduce severe disruption to refining in several EU countries” he said.
Barret added that speculation about possible military strikes on Iranian nuclear sites have helped to increase the risk premium on oil prices.
But on Friday, U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta made one of his most extensive arguments to date against any imminent military action against Iran over its nuclear programme, saying he was convinced sanctions and diplomatic pressure were working.
Israel has called a nuclear-armed Iran a threat. Iran says it is enriching uranium for peaceful purposes.
In Syria, EU sanctions are already biting with Royal Dutch Shell shutting down its activities there.
On Monday, Gulfsands Petroleum said it was reviewing the impact of the latest EU sanctions against Syria on its production activities and its contracts with the Syrian government and the General Petroleum Corporation (GPC).
“Syria was exporting about 400,000 barrels per day at the start of the year and it is probably exporting nothing at the moment,” said Bellew.
Oil ministers from OPEC members Kuwait, Oman and Bahrain said that the market was well supplied, echoing similar comments by Qatar’s energy minister and the OPEC Secretary-General Abdullah al-Badri at the weekend.
OPEC will meet next week in Vienna, but with Iran holding the presidency of the OPEC conference until the end of the year, analysts do not expect much from the meeting. Iran is OPEC’s second-largest producer.