Seems everyone’s getting in the doomsday-prediction business. That’s not all that unusual in Fourth Turnings; in the 1930′s, “tent revivals” were all the rage, and radio preachers gained notoriety with their apocalyptic predictions based on the moral decay of the Roaring ’20s and Prohibition.
Today, we have people using the Mayan calendar, Harold Camping’s Rapture calculations and any number of extraterrestial events to predict the end times, as well as global resource depletion and “climate shift” science. The bright minds at MIT have taken it a step further and have built a computer model to simulate when they believe it will happen. Their simulation points to no later 2030.
Whether any of these are based on fact or faith (or both) doesn’t matter. What matters is that society’s belief that something is terribly wrong and needs to be fixed will eventually create action. We all know, intuitively, that civilization is operating at unsustainable levels and cannot continue this way much longer.
Next Great Depression? MIT Researchers Predict ‘Global Economic Collapse’ By 2030
April 4, 2012
A new study from researchers at Jay W. Forrester’s institute at MIT says that the world could suffer from “global economic collapse” and “precipitous population decline” if people continue to consume the world’s resources at the current pace.
Smithsonian Magazine writes that Australian physicist Graham Turner says “the world is on track for disaster” and that current evidence coincides with a famous, and in some quarters, infamous, academic report from 1972 entitled, “The Limits to Growth.”
Produced for a group called The Club of Rome, the study’s researchers created a computing model to forecast different scenarios based on the current models of population growth and global resource consumption. The study also took into account different levels of agricultural productivity, birth control and environmental protection efforts. Twelve million copies of the report were produced and distributed in 37 different languages.
Most of the computer scenarios found population and economic growth continuing at a steady rate until about 2030. But without “drastic measures for environmental protection,” the scenarios predict the likelihood of a population and economic crash.
However, the study said “unlimited economic growth” is still possible if world governments enact policies and invest in green technologies that help limit the expansion of our ecological footprint.
The Smithsonian notes that several experts strongly objected to “The Limit of Growth’s” findings, including the late Yale economist Henry Wallich, who for 12 years served as a governor of the Federal Research Board and was its chief international economics expert. At the time, Wallich said attempting to regulate economic growth would be equal to “consigning billions to permanent poverty.”
Turner says that perhaps the most startling find from the study is that the results of the computer scenarios were nearly identical to those predicted in similar computer scenarios used as the basis for “The Limits to Growth.”
“There is a very clear warning bell being rung here,” Turner said. “We are not on a sustainable trajectory.”
Here’s a link to the Club of Rome’s site: 40 years “LIMITS TO GROWTH“