URBAN RIOTS SCENARIO

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Posted on 7th September 2012 by Yojimbo in Economy

Bracken: When The Music Stops – How America’s Cities May Explode In Violence

 

Illustration: Bracken’s CW2 Cube; click to enlarge

From Matt Bracken:

In response to recent articles in mainstream military journals discussing the use of the U.S. Army to quell insurrections on American soil, I offer an alternate vision of the future. Instead of a small town in the South as the flash point, picture instead a score of U.S. cities in the thrall of riots greater than those experienced in Los Angeles in 1965 (Watts), multiple cities in 1968 (MLK assassination), and Los Angeles again in 1992 (Rodney King). New Yorkers can imagine the 1977 blackout looting or the 1991 Crown Heights disturbance. In fact, the proximate spark of the next round of major riots in America could be any from a long list cribbed from our history.

We have seen them all before, and we shall see them all again as history rhymes along regardless of the century or the generation of humankind nominally in control of events. But the next time we are visited by widespread, large-scale urban riots, a dangerous new escalation may be triggered by a new vulnerability: It’s estimated that the average American home has less than two weeks of food on hand. In poor minority areas, it may be much less. What if a cascading economic crisis, even a temporary one, leads to millions of EBT (electronic benefit transfer) cards flashing nothing but zeroes? Or if the government’s refusal to reimburse them causes supermarket chains to stop accepting them for payment? The government can order the supermarkets to honor the cards, but history’s verdict is clear: If suppliers are paid only with worthless scrip or blinking digits, the food will stop.

STEP ONE: FLASH MOB LOOTING

In my scenario, the initial riots begin spontaneously across affected urban areas, as SNAP (supplemental nutrition assistance program) and other government welfare recipients learn that their EBT cards no longer function. This sudden revelation will cause widespread anger, which will quickly lead to the flash-mob looting of local supermarkets and other businesses. The media will initially portray these “food riots” as at least partly justifiable. Sadly, millions of Americans have been made largely, or even entirely, dependent on government wealth transfer payments to put food on their tables.

A new social contract has been created, where bread and circuses buy a measure of peace in our minority-populated urban zones. In the era of ubiquitous big-screen cable television, the internet and smart phones, the circus part of the equation is never in doubt as long as the electricity flows. But the bread is highly problematic. Food must be delivered the old-fashioned way: physically. Any disruption in the normal functioning of the EBT system will lead to food riots with a speed that is astonishing. This will inevitably happen when our unsustainable, debt-fueled binge party finally stops, and the music is over. Now that the delivery of free or heavily subsidized food is perceived by tens of millions of Americans to be a basic human right, the cutoff of “their” food money will cause an immediate explosion of rage. When the hunger begins to bite, supermarkets, shops and restaurants will be looted, and initially the media will not condemn the looting. Unfortunately, this initial violence will only be the start of a dangerous escalation.

The ransacked supermarkets, convenience stores, ATMs and gas stations will not be restocked during this period due to the precarious security situation. A single truck loaded with food or gasoline would be perceived to be a Fort Knox on wheels and subject to immediate attack unless heavily protected by powerfully armed security forces, but such forces will not be available during this chaotic period. Under those conditions, resupply to the urban areas cannot and will not take place. The downward spiral of social and economic dysfunction will therefore both accelerate and spread from city to city. These delays, in turn, will lead to more riots with the constant underlying demand that hungry people be fed, one way or another.

Catch-22, anyone? When these demands do not bring the desired outcome, the participants will ratchet up the violence, hoping to force action by the feckless state and national governments.

The “food riots” will be a grass-roots movement of the moment born out of hunger and desperation. It will not be dependent upon leaders or an underlying organization, although they could certainly add to the sauce. Existing cell phone technology provides all the organization a flash mob needs. Most of the mobs will consist of minority urban youths, termed MUYs in the rest of this essay. Which minority doesn’t matter; each urban locale will come with its own unique multi-ethnic dynamic.

Some locales will divide upon religious or political lines, but they will not be the dominant factors contributing to conflict. In the American context, the divisions will primarily have an ethnic or racial context, largely because that makes it easy to sort out the sides at a safe distance. No need to check religious or political affiliation at a hundred yards when The Other is of a different color.

We Americans are all about doing things the easy way, so, sadly, visible racial and ethnic features will form the predominant lines of division.

Would that it were not so, but reality is reality, even when it’s is a bitch.

Especially then.

NEXT STEP: FLASH MOB RIOTS

In order to highlight their grievances and escalate their demands for an immediate resumption of government benefits, the MUY flash mobs will next move their activities to the borders of their ethnic enclaves. They will concentrate on major intersections and highway interchanges where non-MUY suburban commuters must make daily passage to and from what forms of employment still exist. People making a living will still be using those roads to get to where they earn their daily bread.

The results of these clashes will frequently resemble the intersection of Florence and Normandie during the Rodney King riots in 1992, where Reginald Denny was pulled out of his truck’s cab and beaten nearly to death with a cinder block. If you don’t remember it, watch it on Youtube. Then imagine that scene with the mob-making accelerant of texting and other social media technology added to stoke the fires. Instead of a few dozen thugs terrorizing the ambushed intersections, in minutes there will be hundreds.

Rioters will throw debris such as shopping carts and trash cans into the intersection, causing the more timid drivers to pause. The mobs will swarm the lines of trapped cars once they have stopped. Traffic will be forced into gridlock for blocks in all directions. Drivers and passengers of the wrong ethnic persuasions will be pulled from their vehicles to be beaten, robbed, and in some cases raped and/or killed. It will be hyper-violent and overtly racial mob behavior, on a massive and undeniable basis.

Some of those trapped in their cars will try to drive out of the area, inevitably knocking down MUY pedestrians and being trapped by even more outraged MUYs. The commuters will be dragged out of their cars and kicked or beaten to death. Other suburban commuters will try to shoot their way out of the lines of stopped cars, and they will meet the same grim fate once they run out of bullets and room to escape.

The mob will be armed with everything from knives, clubs and pistols to AK-47s. A bloodbath will result. These unlucky drivers and their passengers will suffer horribly, and some of their deaths will be captured on traffic web cameras. Later, these terrible scenes will be released or leaked by sympathetic government insiders and shown by the alternative media, which continue to expand as the traditional media become increasingly irrelevant.

Implausible, you insist?

This grim tableau is my analysis of age-old human behavior patterns, adding flash mobs and 2012 levels of racial anger to the old recipe. Early-teenage MUYs today are frequently playing “The Knockout Game” on full bellies, just for kicks, and proudly uploading the videos. They and their older peers can be expected to do far worse when hunger and the fear of starvation enter their physical, mental, and emotional equations. The blame for their hunger will be turned outward against the greater society, and will be vented at first hand against any non-MUY who falls into their grasp while they are in the thrall of mob hysteria. These episodes of mass psychology we will refer to as “flash mob riots”, “wilding”, or some other new name.

THE OFFICIAL POLICE RESPONSE TO FLASH MOB RIOTS

To gear up for even a single “Florence and Normandie on steroids” flash mob street riot, city police departments will require an hour or longer to stage their SWAT teams and riot squads in position to react. Ordinary patrol cars in small numbers will not venture anywhere near such roiling masses of hysterical rioters, not even to perform rescues. Those citizens trapped in their cars cannot expect timely assistance from local or state authorities.

Even in the first days of widespread riots, when the police forces are well rested, it might take several hours to mount a response sufficient to quell the disturbance and restore order to even one major street intersection riot. In the meantime, scores of innocent commuters will have been attacked, with many of them injured or killed and left at the scene. It will be a law enforcement nightmare to quell the disturbance, mop up lingering rioters, restore security, and bring medical attention to the living and get medical examiners to the dead. And each jurisdiction will face potentially dozens of such scenes, thanks to the ability for MUYs to cross-communicate at will using their wireless devices.

The far more difficult challenge for the police is that by the time they are suited in riot gear, armed and geared up to sweep the intersection, it will probably be empty of rioters. The police, with their major riot squad reaction times measured in hours, will be fighting flash mobs that materialize, cause mayhem, and evaporate in only fractions of hours. This rapid cycle time is a clear lesson taken from massive riots by immigrant French Muslim MUYs in their own religious enclaves and bordering areas.

The American flash mob riot will exist almost entirely inside the law enforcement OODA (observe, orient, decide, act) loop. In other words, the rioters will have a much quicker reaction time than the police. Until fairly recently, superior police communications meant that they could use their radio networks as a force multiplier. With their networking advantage and cohesive reactions both within a department and among cooperating local agencies, police could act as shepherds guiding or dispersing a wayward stampeding flock.

Today, the mob has the greater advantage, immediately spreading word of every police preparation by text and Tweet, even in advance of the police movement. Attempts by the authorities to stop the flash mobs by blocking and jamming wireless transmissions will have limited success.

It is at this point that the situation spirals out of control.

The enraged mobs in urban America will soon recognize that their spontaneous street riots cannot be stopped by the police, and then they will grow truly fearsome. For the police, it will be a losing game of Whack-a-Mole, with riots breaking out and dispersing at a speed they cannot hope to match. The violence will spread to previously unaffected cities as an awareness of law enforcement impotence is spread by television and social media. After a few days, the police forces will be exhausted and demoralized. As the violence intensifies and spreads, and in the absence of any viable security arrangements, supermarkets and other stores will not be restocked, leaving the MUYs even more desperate and angry than before. The increasing desperation born of worsening hunger will refuel the escalating spiral of violence.

Nor will violent conflict be only between the inhabitants of the urban areas and the suburbs. The international record of conflict in tri-ethnic cities is grim, making the old bi-racial dichotomy formerly seen in America seem stable by comparison. In tri-ethnic cities the perceived balance of power is constantly shifting, with each side in turn feeling outnumbered and outmuscled. Temporary truces, betrayals and new alliances follow in rapid succession, removing any lingering sense of social cohesion.

The former Yugoslavia, with its Catholic, Orthodox and Muslim divisions, comes starkly to mind. The Lebanese Civil War between the Christians, Sunnis, Shiites and Druze raged across Beirut (at one time known as “The Paris of the Middle East”) for fifteen brutal years. Once a city turns on itself and becomes a runaway engine of self-destruction, it can be difficult to impossible to switch off the process and return to normal pre-conflict life. It’s not inconceivable that the United States could produce a dozen Sarajevos or Beiruts, primarily across racial instead of religious divides.

Vehicle traffic by non-minority suburban commuters through adjoining minority areas will virtually halt, wrecking what is left of the local economy. Businesses will not open because employees will not be able to travel to work safely. Businesses in minority areas, needless to say, will be looted. “Gentrified” enclaves of affluent suburbanites within or near the urban zones will suffer repeated attacks, until their inhabitants flee.

Radically disaffected minorities will hold critical infrastructure corridors through their areas hostage against the greater society. Highways, railroad tracks, pipe and power lines will all be under constant threat, or may be cut in planned or unplanned acts of raging against “the system.” As long as security in the urban areas cannot be restored, these corridors will be under threat. Even airports will not be immune. Many of them have been absorbed into urban areas, and aircraft will come under sporadic fire while taking off and landing.

In the absence of fresh targets of value blundering into their areas, and still out of food, MUYs will begin to forage beyond their desolated home neighborhoods and into suburban borderlands. “Safe” supermarkets and other stores will be robbed in brazen commando-like gang attacks. Carjackings and home invasions will proliferate madly. As I have discussed in my essay “The Civil War Two Cube,” so-called “transitional” and mixed-ethnic areas will suffer the worst violence. These neighborhoods will become utterly chaotic killing zones, with little or no help coming from the overstretched police, who will be trying to rest up for their next shift on riot squad duty, if they have not already deserted their posts to take care of their own families.

THE SUBURBAN ARMED VIGILANTE RESPONSE

In the absence of an effective official police response to the exploding levels of violence, suburbanites will first hastily form self-defense forces to guard their neighborhoods—especially ones located near ethnic borders. These ubiquitous neighborhood armed defense teams will often have a deep and talented bench from which to select members, and they will not lack for volunteers.

Since 9-11, hundreds of thousands of young men (and more than a few women) have acquired graduate-level educations in various aspects of urban warfare. In the Middle East these troops were frequently tasked with restoring order to urban areas exploding in internecine strife. Today these former military men and women understand better than anyone the life-or-death difference between being armed and organized versus unarmed and disorganized.

Hundreds of thousands if not millions of veterans currently own rifles strikingly similar to those they carried in the armed forces, lacking only the full-automatic selector switch. Their brothers, sisters, parents, friends, and neighbors who did not serve in the military are often just as familiar with the weapons, if not the tactics. Today the AR-pattern rifle (the semi-automatic civilian version of the familiar full-auto-capable M-16 or M-4) is the most popular model of rifle in America, with millions sold in the past decade. Virtually all of them produced in the past decade have abandoned the old M-16′s signature “carrying handle” rear iron sight for a standardized sight mounting rail, meaning that virtually every AR sold today can be easily equipped with an efficient optical sight. Firing the high-velocity 5.56×45 mm cartridge and mounted with a four-power tactical sight, a typical AR rifle can shoot two-inch groups at one hundred yards when fired from a steady bench rest. That translates to shooting eight- to ten-inch groups at four hundred yards.

Four hundred yards is a long walk. Pace it off on a straight road, and observe how tiny somebody appears at that distance. Yet a typical AR rifle, like those currently owned by millions of American citizens, can hit a man-sized target at that range very easily, given a stable firing platform and a moderate level of shooting ability.

And there are a far greater number of scoped bolt-action hunting rifles in private hands in the United States. Keep this number in mind: based on deer stamps sold, approximately twenty million Americans venture into the woods every fall armed with such rifles, fully intending to shoot and kill a two-hundred-pound mammal. Millions of these scoped bolt-action deer rifles are quite capable of hitting a man-sized target at ranges out to and even beyond a thousand yards, or nearly three-fifths of a mile. In that context, the 500-yard effective range of the average semi-auto AR-pattern rifle is not at all remarkable.

So, we have millions of men and women with military training, owning rifles similar to the ones they used in combat operations overseas from Vietnam to Afghanistan. Many of these Soldiers and Marines have special operations training. They are former warriors with experience at conducting irregular warfare and counter-terrorism operations in dangerous urban environments. They are the opposite of unthinking robots: their greatest military talent is looking outside the box for new solutions. They always seek to “over-match” their enemies, using their own advantages as force multipliers while diminishing or concealing their weaknesses. These military veterans are also ready, willing and able to pass on their experience and training to interested students in their civilian circles.

Let’s return to our hypothetical Florence and Normandie intersection, but this time with hundreds of rioters per city block, instead of mere dozens. Among the mobs are thugs armed with pistols and perhaps even AK-47s equipped with standard iron sights, and except in rare cases, these rifles have never been “zeroed in” on a target range. In other words, past a medium distance of fifty to a hundred yards, these MUY shooters will have little idea where their fired bullets will strike—nor will they care. Typically, most of the rioters armed with a pistol, shotgun or an iron-sighted rifle could not hit a mailbox at a hundred yards unless by luck. Inside that distance, any non-MUY could be at immediate risk of brutal death at the hands of an enraged mob, but beyond that range, the mob will pose much less danger.

Taking this imbalance in effective ranges of the firearms most likely to be available to both sides, certain tactical responses are sure to arise, and ranking near the top will be the one described next.

THE SNIPER AMBUSH: THE NEW TACTIC OF CHOICE

The sniper ambush will predictably be used as a counter to rampaging mobs armed only with short- to medium-range weapons. This extremely deadly trick was developed by our war fighters in Iraq and Afghanistan, taking advantage of the significant effective range and firepower of our scoped 5.56mm rifles. Tactics such as the sniper ambush may not be seen early in the civil disorder, but they will surely arise after a steady progression of atrocities attributed to rampaging MUYs.

Street intersection flash mob riots will not be the only type of violence exploding during periods of civil disorder. As mentioned earlier, the number and ferocity of home invasions will skyrocket, and they will be very hard to defend against. Neighborhood self-defense forces will be able to protect a group of homes if they are located on cul-de-sacs or in defensible subdivisions with limited entrances, turning them overnight into fortified gated communities. Individual homes and apartment buildings located in open grid-pattern neighborhoods with outside access from many directions will be much more difficult to defend, and the home invasions will continue.

Carjacking and other forms of armed robbery will proliferate to previously unimagined levels, leading to a total loss of confidence in the government’s ability to provide security across all social lines. Stray bullets striking pedestrians or penetrating houses will take a frightening toll, even in areas previously considered to be safe. The police will be exhausted by constant riot-squad duty, and will not even respond to reports of mere individual acts of violent criminality. They will simply be overwhelmed, and will be forced to triage their responses. The wealthy, powerful and politically well-connected will demand the lion’s share of remaining police resources, further diminishing the safety of average Americans.

In that context, neighborhood self-defense forces will form the nucleus of the armed vigilante direct action groups which will spring up next in the progression. Suburban anger will continue to build against the MUYs, who are perceived to be the originators of the home invasions and gang-level armed looting raids. Survivors of street ambushes, carjackings and home invasions will tell blood-curdling tales and show horrific scars.

The neighborhood defense teams will evolve into proactive suburban armed vigilante groups (SAVs) out of a desire to preemptively take the violence to their perceived enemies, instead of passively waiting for the next home invasion or carjacking. The SAV teams will consist of the more aggressive and gung-ho members of the self-defense forces, who met and compared notes. Often they will be young men with recent combat experience in the armed forces, who will apply their military training to the new situation. Major intersections and highway interchanges where ambush riots have previously occurred will be among the SAV targets. The SAV reaction times will be measured in minutes, compared to the hours required by major police department SWAT teams and riot squads.

A SAMPLE SNIPER AMBUSH SCENARIO

When word is received that a flash mob is forming at one of their pre-reconnoitered intersections or highway interchanges, the SAV team will assemble. Sometimes cooperating police will pass tactical intel to their civilian friends on the outside. Some clever individuals will have exploited their technical know-how and military experience to build real-time intel collection tools, such as private UAVs. Police will have access to urban security camera footage showing MUYs moving barricade materials into position—a normal prerequisite to a flash mob riot intended to stop traffic. Tip-offs to the vigilantes will be common, and where the networks are still functioning, citizens may still be able to access some video feeds. Sometimes, police will even join the SAV teams, incognito and off-duty, blurring the teams into so-called “death squads.”

The operation I will describe (and it’s only one of dozens that will be tried) uses two ordinary pickup trucks and eight fighters. Two riflemen are lying prone in the back of each truck, facing rearward, with removable canvas covers concealing their presence. Their semi-automatic, scoped rifles are supported at their front ends on bipods for very accurate shooting. A row of protective sandbags a foot high is between them and the raised tailgate.

In the cab are a driver and a spotter in the passenger seat who also serves as the vehicle’s 360-degree security. The two trucks don’t ever appear on the same stretch of road, but coordinate their movements using one-word brevity codes over small FRS walkie-talkie radios. Each truck has a series of predetermined elevated locations where the intersection in question will lie between 200 and 500 yards away. Each truck is totally nondescript and forgettable, the only detail perhaps being the non-MUY ethnicity of the suburbanite driver and spotter driving relatively near to a riot in progress.

By the time the two SAV pickup trucks arrive at their firing positions on different streets and oriented ninety degrees to one another, the flash mob riot is in full swing. A hundred or more of the rampaging youths are posturing and throwing debris into traffic in order to intimidate some cars into stopping. The riflemen in the backs of the pickups are waiting for this moment and know what to expect, trusting their spotters and drivers to give them a good firing lane. The spotters in each truck issue a code word on their radios when they are in final position. The tailgates are swung down, and the leader among the riflemen initiates the firing. All-around security is provided by the driver and spotter.

Lying prone and using their bipods for support, the shooters have five to ten degrees of pan or traverse across the entire intersection. Individual rioters are clearly visible in the shooters’ magnified optical scopes. Each of the four snipers has a plan to shoot from the outside of the mob toward the middle, driving participants into a panicked mass. The left-side shooters start on the left side and work to the middle, engaging targets with rapid fire, about one aimed shot per two seconds. Since the two trucks are set at ninety degrees to one another, very complete coverage will be obtained, even among and between the stopped vehicles.

The result is a turkey shoot. One magazine of thirty aimed shots per rifle is expended in under a minute, a coded cease-fire is called on the walkie-talkies, and the trucks drive away at the speed limit. The canvas covering the truck beds contains the shooters’ spent brass. If the trucks are attacked from medium or close range, the canvas can be thrown back and the two snipers with their semi-automatic rifles or carbines will add their firepower to that of the driver and spotter.

Back at the intersection, complete panic breaks out among the rioters as a great number of bullets have landed in human flesh. Over a score have been killed outright, and many more scream in pain for medical attention they will not receive in time. The sniper ambush stops the flash mob cold in its tracks as the uninjured flee in terror, leaving their erstwhile comrades back on the ground bleeding. The commuters trapped in their vehicles may have an opportunity to escape.

This type of sniper ambush and a hundred variations on the theme will finally accomplish what the police could not: put an end to mobs of violent rioters making the cities through-streets and highways impassible killing zones. Would-be rioters will soon understand it to be suicidal to cluster in easily visible groups and engage in mob violence, as the immediate response could come at any time in the form of aimed fire from hundreds of yards away. Even one rifleman with a scoped semi-auto can break up a medium-sized riot.

Many citizens will take to carrying rifles and carbines in their vehicles, along with their pistols, so that if their cars are trapped in an ambush they will have a chance to fight their way out. If their vehicle is stopped outside the immediate area of the flash mob, they will be able to direct accurate fire at the rioters from a few hundred yards away. Inside the fatal hundred-yard radius, unlucky suburbanite drivers and passengers pulled from their cars will still be brutally violated, but the occurrences of large mob-driven street ambushes will be much less frequent once long-range retaliation becomes a frequent expectation.

THE GOVERNMENT RESPONSE TO VIGILANTISM

Where they will be unable to respond swiftly or effectively to the outbreaks of street riots by MUY flash mobs, the police and federal agents will respond vigorously to the deadly but smaller vigilante attacks. These sniper ambushes and other SAV attacks will be called acts of domestic terrorism and mass murder by government officials and the mainstream media. A nearly seamless web of urban and suburban street cameras will reveal some of the SAV teams by their vehicles, facial recognition programs, and other technical means. Some early arrests will be made, but the vigilantes will adapt to increasing law enforcement pressure against them by becoming cleverer about their camouflage, most often using stolen cars and false uniforms and masks during their direct-action missions. Observe Mexico today for ideas on how this type of dirty war is fought.

Eventually, the U.S. Army itself might be called upon to put out all the social firestorms in our cities, restore order and security, pacify the angry masses, feed the starving millions, get vital infrastructure operating again, and do it all at once in a dozen American Beiruts, Sarajevos and Mogadishus.

Good luck to them, I say.

A few hundred “Active IRA” tied down thousands of British troops in one corner of a small island for decades. The same ratios have served the Taliban well over the past decade while fighting against the combined might of NATO. Set aside for a moment the angry starving millions trapped in the urban areas, and the dire security issues arising thereof. Just to consider the official reaction to vigilantism separately, it’s unlikely that any conceivable combinations of local and state police, federal law enforcement, National Guard or active-duty Army actions could neutralize or eliminate tens of thousands of former special operations troops intent on providing their own form of security. Millions of Americans are already far better armed and trained than a few hundred IRA or Taliban ever were. And the police and Army would not be operating from secure fire bases, their families living in total safety thousands of miles away in a secure rear area. In this scenario, there is no rear area, and every family member, anywhere, would be at perpetual risk of reprisal actions by any of the warring sides.

In this hyper-dangerous environment, new laws forbidding the carrying of firearms in vehicles would be ignored as the illegitimate diktat of dictatorship, just when the Second Amendment is needed more than ever. Police or military conducting searches for firearms at checkpoints would themselves become targets of vigilante snipers. Serving on anti-firearms duty would be seen as nothing but pure treason by millions of Americans who took the oath to defend the Constitution, including the Bill of Rights. Politicians who did not act in the security interest of their local constituents as a result of political correctness or other reasons would also be targeted.

A festering race war with police and the military in the middle taking fire from both sides could last for many years, turning many American cities into a living hell. Remember history: when the British Army landed in Northern Ireland in 1969, they were greeted with flowers and applause from the Catholics. The Tommys were welcomed as peacekeepers who would protect them from Protestant violence. That soon changed. Likewise with our tragic misadventure in Lebanon back in 1982 and 1983. Well-intended referees often find themselves taking fire from all sides. It’s as predictable as tomorrow’s sunrise. Why would it be any different when the U.S. Army is sent to Los Angeles, Chicago or Philadelphia to break apart warring ethnic factions?

For a long time after these events, it will be impossible for the warring ethnic groups to live together or even to mingle peacefully. Too much rage and hatred will have been built up on all sides of our many American multi-ethnic fault lines. The new wounds will be raw and painful for many years to come, as they were in the South for long after the Civil War. The fracturing of the urban areas, divided by no-man’s-lands, will also hinder economic redevelopment for many years because the critical infrastructure corridors will remain insecure.

Eventually, high concrete “Peace Walls” like those in Belfast, Northern Ireland, will be installed where the different ethnic groups live in close proximity. That is, if recovery to sane and civilized norms of behavior are ever regained in our lifetimes and we don’t slide into a new Dark Age, a stern and permanent tyranny, warlordism, anarchy, or any other dire outcome.

Dark Ages can last for centuries, after sinking civilizations in a vicious, downward vortex. “When the music’s over, turn out the lights,” to quote Jim Morrison of The Doors. Sometimes the lights stay out for a long time. Sometimes civilization itself is lost. Millions of EBT cards flashing zeroes might be the signal event of a terrible transformation.

It is a frightening thing to crystallize the possible outbreak of mass starvation and racial warfare into words, so that the mind is forced to confront agonizingly painful scenarios. It is much easier to avert one’s eyes and mind from the ugliness with politically correct Kumbaya bromides. In this grim essay, I am describing a brutal situation of ethnic civil war not differing much from the worst scenes from recent history in Rwanda, South Africa, Mexico, Bosnia, Iraq, and many other places that have experienced varying types and degrees of societal collapse. We all deplore the conditions that might drive us toward such a hellish outcome, and we should work unceasingly to return America to the path of true brotherhood, peace and prosperity. Race hustlers of every stripe should be condemned.

Most of us wish we could turn back the calendar to Norman Rockwell’s America. But we cannot, for that America is water long over the dam and gone from our sight, if not from our memories. John Adams said, “Our Constitution was made only for a moral and religious people. It is wholly inadequate to the government of any other.” If that is true, judging by current and even accelerating cultural shifts, we might already have passed the point of no return.

The prudent American will trim his sails accordingly.

Matt Bracken is the author of the Enemies Foreign And Domestic trilogy, along with his latest novel, Castigo Cay.

31 Comments
  1. Yojimbo says:

    I forgot to mention hat tip to Flash for posting this on another thread.

    http://westernrifleshooters.wordpress.com/2012/09/03/bracken-when-the-music-stops-how-americas-cities-may-explode-in-violence/

    7th September 2012 at 10:00 am

  2. AWD says:

    I don’t think there are enough police and military to quell the coming riots and murders.

    100 million are on Welfare of one type or another. How many police and military are their total? 1/10 as many as the FSA? Ouch.

    7th September 2012 at 11:38 am

  3. flash says:

    Yojimbo, Thanks, I was hoping someone would post that.

    7th September 2012 at 11:40 am

  4. Thunderbird says:

    When the iron curtain fell in the east it showed there was little food in the markets and no merchandise in the department stores, but the people had plenty of money to buy.

    When the entitlement curtain falls in the west it will show the supermarkets overflowing with food and the department stores stock full of merchandise, but there is no money in the hands of the people to buy.

    What is wrong with this picture? Who is controlling all the money? Can anyone expect anything else but riots?

    We seem to have a failed political system that is causing a failed economic system.

    One thing stands out common to both forms of government; that is, communism and democracy — both forms grow governments that are too big and control with excessive regulations the levers of commerce between the people. The former kills incentive to produce and the latter allows the accumulation of vast sums of money into golden calves depriving the common people of money to spend.

    Our solution is simple— let greed run it’s course.

    7th September 2012 at 11:42 am

  5. flash says:

    BTW, Bracken is the first to predict a break-up along racial lines.
    Thomas Chittum predicted this same scenario back in 1997, but Chittum’s work defers in that he does the demographics exposing the likely shifts in control of regions according to racial majority.
    You can read it here.
    http://www.resist.com/CWII.pdf

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_W._Chittum
    Thomas W. Chittum is an author,[1] military analyst[2] and former mercenary from New Jersey.[3] He served in the U.S. Army during the Vietnam War.[4] He fought in the Rhodesian War and the Croatian War of Independence.[5] Chittum predicts that the United States will soon face Balkanization[6] and a second Civil War based on racial conflicts.[7] He also says that he plans to move to upstate New York because it would likely still be a Caucasian-controlled area after the American Southwest effectively becomes part of Mexico due to immigration by 2020

    7th September 2012 at 11:48 am

  6. flash says:

    89 million fat people on disability just don’t want to work.

    8.1%
    +96,000
    FED SET TO PUMP
    368,000 DROPPED OUT
    88,921,000 ‘NOT IN LABOR FORCE’

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/payroll-growth-seen-tepid-may-072622785.html

    7th September 2012 at 11:50 am

  7. IndenturedServant says:

    From the article:
    ” A nearly seamless web of urban and suburban street cameras will reveal some of the SAV teams by their vehicles, facial recognition programs, and other technical means.”

    Bullshit! I sincerely doubt that you will find a govt camera, red light or otherwise, with less than one bullet hole in it. In addition to the pickup truck snipers, there will undoubtedly be teams of people running around with the sole intention of disabling the govt surveillance systems.
    I_S

    7th September 2012 at 12:05 pm

  8. Stucky says:

    Two other books on a future Civil War in America. I read neither … just googled to see what’s out there.

    .
    “Aftermath: a scifi novel from LaMar Burton — ie “Geordi LaForge ” of Star Trek fame. Just barely average reviews, but I loved him in Star Trek.

    http://www.amazon.com/Aftermath-LeVar-Burton/dp/0446605018

    and

    The Next American Civil War: The Populist Revolt against the Liberal Elite.. Reviews are all over the place … from it’s great to it sucks.

    http://www.amazon.com/The-Next-American-Civil-War/dp/0230102719

    7th September 2012 at 12:30 pm

  9. SAH says:

    “If you control the oil you control the country; if you control food, you control the population.”
    – Henry Kissinger

    7th September 2012 at 1:53 pm

  10. Hope@ZeroKelvin says:

    Told ya’ so. I think I posted extensively on the dangers when the SNAP cards go to zero several months ago, Lord I’m a genius! A prophet! The High Mistress of Doom!

    This guy, however, is talking about establishing sniper ambushes in an attempt to control violent flash mobs in the urban setting. (I never advocated that, for the record.)

    Okay. However, the smarter flash mobbers will start setting up their OWN sniper ambush points after a few iterations of this and now we’re talking about a freaking HOT civil war in the cities. Yikes.

    So, after the urban folks have sorted themselves out, what comes OUT of the cities will be the biggest, meanest, most ruthless motherfuckers EVER, and they will start rampaging into the rural areas.

    That is when the rural folks are going to have to start forming militias for their own survival. I think they will utlimately defeat these gangs but only if the rural militias become as ruthless as their enemy. The rural folks will have several key advantages: They know their own territory, they have a secure food/water supply, they have their own shelter, they have lots of well sighted-in long guns.

    Oh, and these are the folks buying ammo and guns like crazy.

    They will also be fighting for their very lives and that of their families. Personally, I would have no problem opening up on a bunch of maurading gangbangers in a total SHTF scenario, but that’s just me.

    Let’s just pray it doesn’t come to this.

    7th September 2012 at 2:02 pm

  11. AWD says:

    HZK in action:

    Rule5_Girls_With_Guns_40.jpg

    7th September 2012 at 2:19 pm

  12. Thunderbird says:

    Henry Kissinger is right; if you control the food you control the population. Food stamps are doing that. With little money in circulation among the common people the government is providing the drug to keep people in control…FOOD! You take that away and the country falls into chaos.

    Prices are going up on everything including food so I expect the food stamp program to increase it’s monthly payout to keep up with inflation.

    Why is it in this country that the money flow keeps going in the direction of the rich and away from the common man? Is it because investment is more valued than labor? The majority of people prefer to earn their living by providing their labor. But our society (the controlling members of it) reject labor by exporting jobs and taxing it at a higher rate than investments with their tax breaks. In addition high tech is also replacing labor.

    There is a common group of people that think if government entitlements ended this would force people to find jobs. They think that somehow the end of entitlements will produce jobs. How mechanical their thinking is. Out of one side of their mouth they bitch about jobs being exported and out the other side of their mouth they scream “stop the government entitlement programs for the free shit army,” thinking by doing this the free shit army will go to work. But what work?

    When TSHTF it is going to affect everyone; rich and poor. The money is unevenly distributed in favor of the rich, and this money is not working to create jobs, but rather to fund corporate buyouts, municipal bonds waiting to mature from already finished projects, offshore bank accounts doing nothing, government bonds, and on and on. In other words it is all debt instruments waiting to be paid off and dragging down all economic production.

    Government community has replaced individualism. Obama said it is government community he is in charge of. Government community provides unionized government jobs and entitlements to the less fortunate who cannot get a government job. And between the rich and the Federal Reserve there is plenty of money to provide; with money to spare for wars.

    Man was made to be a slave for nature. Genesis says it. A few men were made to be the slave masters. Men want to be used by their masters but they want to be fed too. In our day and age we have a few too many rich. It must have happened as a result of the American Revolution that let the slaves run wild for a couple hundred years. Now with our new government we are bringing the slaves back into the corral. Obama plans to tax the rich a lot more.

    Right now we have a lot of slaves with nothing to do. But the all benevolent government will still feed their servants and let them have their entitlements.

    Oh did I say “our new government?” Haven’t you all noticed (or have you been sleeping) that since Bush came to office all the laws that have been passed to strip the slaves from their wrongfully gained rights under the constitution? Haven’t you noticed the Uniform Commercial Code UCC is now the law of the land and the courts while the constitution has been put to sleep and sits in a museum. We now live under the law of the sea; Admiralty Law. Think not? Right now in every city there is a mayor who is the sole lawmaker in a declared emergency. He has the same power as the captain of a ship at sea. All he has to do to get this power is declare an emergency.

    But the slaves will be taken care of in an Obama Administration. What does Mitt Romney have to offer the slaves? No food, no housing, and no jobs? Oh he said 14 million jobs! Talk sure is cheap. At least Obama is offering something; even if it is not jobs. He is doing what Henry Kissinger said. He is providing the food and controlling the slaves. He is a good slave master!

    Funny how things have turned full circle since the American Revolution. Then we had a white president with black slaves. Now we have a black president with white slaves. LOL

    7th September 2012 at 3:32 pm

  13. You Bet says:

    If you don’t have the “Three W’s” to surround yourselves with you will be well and truly fucked. You need Weapons, Water and White Folks to survive this urban riot situation.

    7th September 2012 at 4:42 pm

  14. Llpoh says:

    The reality is about a quarter of the population – those with IQs under 85 – are simply too stupid to work in a modern economy. Some can work as fruit pickets and such. But in large part they are unemployable. And they are are expensive to keep – they suck up free shit beyond the ability of society to pay for it. And by and large the other three quarters of the population do not want to pay for it.

    What to do, what to do? Iris not going to be pretty. In the end, I think the only answer is the fund these folks, but require they work for the money. They can pick up trash, sweep streets with a broom, cut grass with an old style non- electric mower, etc. The cost of supervision will be outrageous. But what is the choice? All out war? Euthanasia? But free shit must stop.and any refusing to work must be dealt with ruthlessly, and by that I mean they must not be allowed to disrupt society in any way. The cancer is creeping through society and must be cut out. There is no other choice.

    7th September 2012 at 5:10 pm

  15. flash says:

    FWIW, The spark that sets off the blazing infernos in what RE refers to as the big shitties, may not be the failure to fund EBT at all , but could be Obama getting his ass handed to him by Romney in a landslide defeat.

    “It’ jus’ don’t make no sense” vibrant youth

    7th September 2012 at 6:03 pm

  16. Thunderbird says:

    Some people really don’t get it. We are becoming a society that no longer needs to work; technology is working for our needs. Why not find another reason for living besides working, like investigating the universe. Yes man was originally made for nature and to work. We were made to work for something lower than ourselves. But man contains something more than just a machine that works. We have a conscious brain that can think. Maybe it is time to develop that consciousness inside us.

    Me thinks rich people are too vain. They should get a dose of picking up trash, sweeping the streets with a broom, cutting the grass with an old style non-electric/non gasoline lawnmower, and separating the garbage in the landfills. Perhaps then they will learn humility.

    People getting free shit from the government. Do I sense envy coming from someone who does not get free shit? So what? The rich are getting richer. Oh that is so rightful because they are so smart that they can use the system against itself to weasel most of the wealth to themselves then sit back and enviously complain about the free shit someone else gets from the government. Oh but the government is taking my weasel earned money and giving it to him… that lazy low down low IQ smooch. We have so much in this country that it really doesn’t matter.

    The lack we are really suffering from in this country is not money… it is intellectual substance. A high IQ and higher education does not make a good man… substance does. Magnetism does. Compassion does. Love does. The higher education seems to have turned the higher IQ man into a machine without any compassion for those around him. All us lower IQ people have been made into food for the higher IQ educated man that runs the corporations like a machine grinding up people and land for PROFIT…MONEY…POWER.

    Get a grip man and stop complaining about the free shit army. The world is changing and producing more because of technology. Me thinks a three day work week would solve the employment problem. Just get the corporation and the overpaid CEO to cut loose on some of that profit and pay their employees a livable wage. Just think each person working a three day week with four days a week to do as one pleases.

    Solves the urban riots scenario. Oh and the debts? Get the Federal Reserve to pay it off. They have an endless supply of this fiat money.

    7th September 2012 at 6:25 pm

  17. Llpoh says:

    Thunderbird the socialist rears his head. I hope he was being sarcastic, but I doubt it.

    7th September 2012 at 6:58 pm

  18. Yeshua, creation of God says:

    In the garden of Eden there was no money and there was no work.

    Leisure and love. There were no bankers. There was no greed. There was no debt peonage.

    Until that old serpent came along and gave birth to that lover of treasure, Baal.

    7th September 2012 at 7:06 pm

  19. Bernanke, Commander of the Enterprise says:

    I run this ship. Now do as I tell you. Take the money from MF global, wheel it to the transporter room, and vaporize it!

    7th September 2012 at 7:10 pm

  20. AWD says:

    The lack we are really suffering from in this country is not money… it is intellectual substance. -Thunderbird

    You eyeballing my girl SAH?

    7th September 2012 at 7:13 pm

  21. ecliptix543 says:

    That article is the best movie pitch I’ve heard in ages! Let’s pool some cash and make it… how about we start in Detroit?

    7th September 2012 at 10:41 pm

  22. Novista says:

    clipx

    What about Cincinnati?

    8th September 2012 at 12:38 am

  23. ThePessimisticChemist says:

    @ecliptix

    Its already been done.

    Frankly, I half wonder if half of the US population WANTS this to happen so they can live out their favorite 80s/90s action movie.

    I think I’m going to channel my inner Demolition Man for the coming festivities.

    demolitionman.jpeg

    8th September 2012 at 4:36 am

  24. ecliptix543 says:

    Well, I was thinking that with Detroit we could just use live ammo. Who would give a fuck really? Just set up multiple cameras so we get the sequence on the first go-round and light those monkeys up!

    8th September 2012 at 7:31 am

  25. ecliptix543 says:

    I’d love to live out Red Dawn, personally. Except for the whole getting nailed by that shitbag Russian at the end… nothing like getting gut shot in the freezin’ ass cold…

    8th September 2012 at 7:33 am

  26. Thunderbird says:

    Llpoh says:

    “Thunderbird the socialist rears his head. I hope he was being sarcastic, but I doubt it.”

    It seems you think many people are too stupid to work. No doubt there are many people not educated enough or do not want to work high tech and information management jobs. But they are capable of working many low tech jobs and make a descent living if the government kept off their back and broke up their public monopolies.

    Government wants to control everything including one’s work. A license for this a certification for that, the government has gotten so intrusive into one’s occupation that there is nearly no incentive left to work. The government has turned this intrusiveness into a business to make money for itself. It also hires public workers to work in their business. Government is always looking for profitable business in the private sector to take over and run. They first over-regulate it do drive private companies out of business, then take it over. It then becomes a government monopoly that runs poorly. No competition causes quality and customer service to go down and the cost to go up.

    You seem to have assumed the idea that the free shit army are a bunch of lazy people when what has happened is they lost their incentive to work because of government takeover and control of many of the old private sector jobs. And the government keeps their monopoly control of these jobs by putting up an array of expensive regulations on the ones that would like to get into these jobs for themselves. Government have become an enemy to free enterprise.

    Because of this situation why not take advantage of the free shit? I’m all for it until the entire corrupt regulated public business structure falls apart. You seem to think it wrong to get free shit from the government at the expense of the others that have to pay higher taxes. But the government no longer pays for this stuff with taxes; it creates debt to do it. Debt it doesn’t even expect to taxpayer to ever pay off.

    The role of government is no longer a black and white question because the government is into everything with even the rich making their money off government spending. The government has fooled so many into believing it is a self regulating organism; which it isn’t. People think the government can never collapse and lose control, which is faulty thinking.

    When you say: “The reality is about a quarter of the population – those with IQs under 85 – are simply too stupid to work in a modern economy,” do you realize how stupid you sound? Our modern economy includes all levels of jobs. If you work in a suit in an office in a high rise then I can see your arrogance and ignorance in that statement above. Maybe you need a reality check.

    The jobs are not there because of government interference! But instead of calling for the government to back off, you want to throw a quarter of the work force with an IQ less than 85 under the bus because they are collecting entitlements to supplement their puny inflation ate up incomes. Man are you falling for the government divide & conquer strategy with the people.

    I think the people deserve all the free shit they can get out of the government until it gets it’s paws out of free enterprise. You underestimate the ability of people my friend. And you also make the mistake of thinking educated people are better people than non educated ones. With this mentality you are part of the problem; not part of the solution. Is Llpoh the fascist raising his head?

    8th September 2012 at 1:04 pm

  27. Appalachian Trail Deblazer says:

    @ SAH

    If you look back in history you would see that the way the US Calvary defeated the native americans of the west was to destroy their meager crops, kill off the animals they lived off of and starve them out.

    The Calvary fought them only enough to keep them moving and wearing them down, mentally and physically.

    The Battle of the Little Big Horn was the only one where the native americans had a weapons superiority (repeating rifles) vs. US Army single shot rifles and the native numerical advantage.

    8th September 2012 at 2:02 pm

  28. Llpoh says:

    Tbird – you obviously are no mental giant, so i will spell it out for you.

    One quarter of the population has IQs below 85. Do me a favor, and google up what a person with an IQ of 85 is capable of, then note that i said 25 per cent have IQs BELOW that.

    Those folks are not capable of much at all, and whatever they are given must requireno quality control or have safety issues. They require extreme supervision. EXTREME supervision.

    These folkscanot runcomputers,they cannot make change, they cannot run automated equipment or be trusted in an industrial environment. They can pick fruit if heavily supervised, or sweep floors. Some of them. Not all ofthem. I wouldn’t trust them with power equipment, in general, or sharp objects. Scares me that a lot of them are allowed to drive.

    That’s the fact, Jack. Just because you are too stupid to understand their limitations, and come out with your left wing horseshit doesn’t make it so.

    Dumb is dumb. Politically incorrect has nothing to do with it. But keep the delusion going.

    Take your single digit IQ and jam it up your ass. Me, I make my fucking living evaluating what people can and cannot do. If i get that wrong I go broke. People lose jobs. What skin do you have in the game?

    8th September 2012 at 7:06 pm

  29. Llpoh says:

    Tbird, you moron, here is what people in range of 70 – 90 can do. Notice they can be allowed no discretion in their work. Under 80 is unemployable in almost all fields. In a for profit situation:

    70-79 – Borderline retarded

    Limited trainability. Have difficulty with everyday demands like using a phone book, reading bus or train schedules, banking, filling out forms, using appliances like a video recorder, microwave oven or computer, etcetera, and therefore require assistance from relatives or social agencies in the management of their affairs. Can be employed in simple tasks but require supervision.

    80-89 – Below average

    Above the threshold for normal independent functioning. Can perform explicit routinized hands-on tasks without supervision as long as there are no moments of choice and it is always clear what has to be done. Assembler, food service.

    This is also the I.Q. range most associated with violence. Most violent crime by far is committed by males from this range. This does not imply that all males in this range are violent, nor that all violent males are in this range. But when the modal I.Q. of a group is in this range, one may expect trouble with with many male members of that group. When the modal I.Q. of a society or population is raised upward of this range, violence decreases as fewer males fall in this range then, given the shape of an even remotely normal distribution. When the modal I.Q. of a society is below this range to begin with though, raising it will increase violence.

    And, this is the range into which men of average or just above average intelligence sink when under the influence of alcohol; Alcohol reduces I.Q. by up to about 25 points while drunk (own data), which explains why many drunk men are violent and aggressive (own hypothesis).

    8th September 2012 at 8:45 pm

  30. Thunderbird says:

    Llpoh: What IQ do presidents and world leaders have that have caused wars that have killed millions of people? What IQ do our Senators and congressman have that have passed laws that take away the freedoms of their countrymen and make inside deals for themselves? What IQ do bankers and finance people have that fund wars and dream up all types of fraud on the people for their own gain?

    I strongly disagree with most of your assessments. I have figured you right about one thing. You are full of all types of misinformation. You probably spend all day in an office wearing a suit, in front of a computer reading all types of misinformation and sell it to corporate dimwits who use it to hire imbeciles to follow their scripted instructions. Believe you me I am seeing it more and more in all the corporate outlets and big box stores. They are hiring high IQ dimwits that only follow computer software programs telling them what to do.

    Llpoh says: “When the modal IQ of a society or population is raised upward of this range, violence decreases”

    Really? Where did you get this information? Have you been to Asia, Indonesia, India, Europe, Africa? Where do you think most of this violence gets activated? How about high IQ white males going into these places and robbing the people of their resources and causing wars? Then blame the people for their violence because they have a low IQ. Yep, these low IQ bastards are causing all kinds of trouble.

    If you could see yourself and the way you talk you could then see your arrogance. But you probably already can and like it. You underestimate the ability of low IQ people because you don’t know them. You only read misinformation about them coming out of your computer screen.

    This country is dying economically and politically because we have too many arrogant high IQ people running things. And they are using people like you to get recruits.

    Many drunk men are violent and aggressive not because of low IQ but because their minds are F%&ked up inside already. It is not about IQ or IQ reduction. Why don’t you open your eyes and look at the real world?

    I agree that high tech jobs require a mind with a high IQ. But I have observed that many of these high IQ minds are messed up in other ways. Many times the downside is more to handle than the up side of the high IQ. Many high IQ men have bad relationships with both men and women and have a high divorce rate because they are socially incompetent to carry on a normal relationship.

    Our minds are mechanical so a high IQ man can organize his mechanical mind very well. Corporations are looking for well organized minds. But a high IQ is not the only quality in a man to look for. What you are looking for is a balanced man with a high IQ. Those are hard to find.

    8th September 2012 at 10:35 pm

  31. Llpoh says:

    Tbird the moron returns. I build stuff for a living – what the fuck does hedo?

    It is an established FACT that the lower the IQ the more violent the person (males we are really talking about there). Tbird tries to deflect that fact as it doesn’t fit his world view. He doesn’tlike the fact that high IQ societies are less violent, as it does notfit his views. Hetalksaboutpoliticians to deflect away the facts. He talks about techs and fucked up minds to deflect the facts. He talks about everything but the facts, as he simply cannot bring himself to accept the facts.

    The fact is this – in order to compete with low wage nations, the US needs to be highly efficient, highlyskilled, and increase productivity rapidly. It needs to be cutting edge.

    But there is a significant proportion of people who do not have the inate intelligence to be employed by profit-seeking companies in such a world.

    But Tbird is too stupid tounderstand that basic fact. He will throw up smoke to try, as he feels everyone should have a high paying job, no matter whether they can add value or not. It is their human righ, accordng to him. What a moron – no such right exists. People are worth what they are worth in the marketplace, and profit seeking employers will not employ peoplewho cannot help them make profit. It has nothing to do with unfair – it is the real world.

    Too bad Tbird is too stupid to understand that business deals with what is, not pie in the sky bullshit.

    And by the way, that info was a quote, not my own writing. Modern research.

    8th September 2012 at 11:02 pm

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