On January 8 of this year I posted my annual prediction article for this year – 2012 – The Year of Living Dangerously. Now it’s time to assess my complete and utter cluelessness when it comes to predicting things within a given time frame. Despite the fact that myself and everyone else acting like they know what lays ahead are proven wrong time and time again, we continue to make predictions about the future. It makes us feel like we have some control, when we don’t. The world is too complex, too big, too corrupt, too lost in theories and delusions, and too dependent upon too many leaders with too few brains to be able to predict what will happen next. This is the time of year when all the “experts” will be making their 2013 predictions. I haven’t seen too many of these experts going back and honestly assessing their 2012 predictions, which didn’t happen.

What I’ve learned is that “experts” usually have an agenda. Their predictions are designed to convince you to buy the stocks they recommend or purchase their newsletter. Many of these “experts” work for Wall Street, the corporate MSM, a political party or corporate interest. Half of the “experts” represent the status quo and want the masses to think everything is just fine and will steadily improve. The other half are fear mongers that want to scare you into buying their products with predictions of impending collapse at any moment. I like to read the predictions of a wide variety of pundits, bloggers, and so called journalists, while understanding they probably have an agenda.

Personally, I try to make my predictions based on the facts I observe and try to gather. My agenda is to prepare my family for whatever these facts tell me is likely to happen. My website is just a place for me to post my thoughts. I don’t depend upon it for a living and I have nothing to sell. That doesn’t mean that my biases, hopes, and desires do not color my predictions. As I reread my article yesterday, I found myself thinking, “when is this long winded gasbag going to actually make some predictions?” My article was supposed to make 2012 predictions but ended up trying to tie 2012 into the Fourth Turning Crisis paradigm. When I eventually got to the predictions, I realized that a monkey throwing darts could have done just as well. If I was one of those “experts”, I’d say that I wasn’t wrong, I was just early. Of course, that is a cop-out. Being early is the same as being wrong.

I’m more interested in why I was wrong. It seems I always underestimate the ability of sociopathic central bankers and their willingness to destroy the lives of hundreds of millions to benefit their oligarch masters. I always underestimate the rampant corruption that permeates Washington DC and the executive suites in mega-corporations across the land. And I always overestimate the intelligence, civic mindedness, and ability to understand math of the ignorant masses that pass for citizens in this country. It seems that issuing trillions of new debt to pay off trillions of bad debt, government sanctioned accounting fraud, mainstream media propaganda, government data manipulation and a populace blinded by mass delusion can stave off the inevitable consequences of an unsustainable economic system. But enough excuses. Let’s see how wrong I was:

  • All the episodes which will occur in 2012 will have at their core one of the three elements described by Strauss & Howe in 1997: Debt, Civic Decay, or Global Disorder.

This was a generic prediction. Those are a lot easier to take credit for as being right. Considering the country is about to go over the fiscal cliff, I’d say that debt has had a major impact in 2012. The disgusting political campaign, the anger over efforts to ban guns, urban violence, 20% of nation on food stamps, and real unemployment rate of 23% certainly prove that civic decay is accelerating. Uprisings in Egypt, Syria and across the Middle East intensified. Israel and Iran got closer to inevitable war. Japan and China are on the verge of conflict. The U.S. is still bogged down in Afghanistan and has failed miserably in efforts to democratize the Middle East. I’d say we have had a bit of global disorder.

  • At best, the excessive levels of sovereign debt will slow economic growth to zero or below in 2012. At worst, interest rates will soar as counties attempt to rollover their debt and rolling defaults across Europe will plunge the continent into a depression.

The best case scenario for European bankers and politicians came to pass in 2012. The GDP for the European Union went negative in the 3rd quarter of 2012. The southern European nations are experiencing depression level conditions with soaring unemployment, social unrest, and higher interest rates. But even Germany is experiencing a dramatic slowdown. The bankers continue to call the shots, with various debt schemes designed to keep the bankers whole, while throwing the people to the wolves. They have postponed the day of reckoning, but it is coming. They do not have a liquidity problem. They have a solvency problem. You cannot resolve a debt problem by creating more debt.

  • The truth that no one wants to acknowledge is the standard of living for every person in Europe, the United States and Japan will decline. The choice is whether the decline happens rapidly by accepting debt default and restructuring or methodically through central bank created inflation that devours the wealth of the middle class. Debt default would result in rich bankers losing vast sums of wealth and politicians accepting the consequences of their phony promises. Bankers and politicians will choose inflation.

This was an easy one. Bankers and politicians will never choose pain for themselves when they can shift it to the people. Bernanke and the rest of the world’s central bankers, in cooperation with their captured politicians, have chosen to inflate the debt away by printing money. They trust in the shallowness and ignorance of the masses to not notice as their standard of living steadily declines.

Controlling the distribution of data allows the oligarchs to falsify the true level of inflation and the corporate MSM dutifully spews the propaganda to the masses.

  • The European Union will not survive 2012 in its current form. Countries are already preparing for the dissolution. Politicians and bankers will lie and print until the day they pull the plug on the doomed Euro experiment.

I was 100% wrong in this assessment. The politicians and bankers are most certainly lying, but they have succeeded in keeping the EU intact. The dissolution would imperil too many bankers. Whether they can keep it intact through 2013 is another question.

  • The National Debt will be $16.5 trillion when the next president takes office in January 2013.

Barack Obama will be inaugurated on January 20, 2013. As of December 26, 2012 the National Debt stood at $16.34 trillion and according to Turbo Tax Timmy will hit the debt limit of $16.4 trillion on December 31. He will use accounting gimmicks and not fund government pensions to not exceed the limit, but the debt will continue to accumulate at a rate of $3.5 billion per day. The National Debt will be at approximately $16.47 trillion when Obama starts his 2nd term. Close enough for government work.

  • As debt servicing grows by the day, the economy losses steam. The excessive and increasing debt levels will lead to a renewed recession in 2012.

Despite the fact that the government and corporate media continue to report economic growth and a barely positive GDP, a recession did begin this past summer. Using a true level of inflation, GDP has been negative since 2006.

The horrific Christmas retail sales and declining corporate profits reveal the truth. Fourth quarter GDP will be negative and the government will eventually adjust the prior quarters lower. Excel spreadsheet models, fake inflation figures and seasonal adjustments cannot deny reality or the facts.

  • As foreclosures rise a self-reinforcing loop will develop. Home prices will fall as banks dump houses at lower prices, pushing millions more into a negative equity position. Home prices will fall another 5% to 10% in 2012, with a couple years to go before bottoming. 

Another 100% wrong prediction. I again underestimated the willingness of corrupt Wall Street bankers, in cahoots with the Federal government, to fraudulently boost home prices by withholding foreclosures from the market and creating a fake housing shortage. The Feds have willingly used Fannie, Freddie and the FHA to guarantee more bad mortgage loans and put the taxpayer further on the hook for the billions of bad debt. Bennie has swooped in and bought up billions of toxic mortgage debt from the criminal Wall Street banks, while driving mortgage rates to record low levels. With this massive intervention, they have managed to increase home prices by 4% and increase home sales to levels 60% below the peak. Job well done.

  • The working age population will increase by 1.7 million, the number of people employed will go up by 1 million, but the official unemployment rate will drop to 7% as the BLS reveals that 10 million people decided to relax and leave the workforce. Surely I jest. The government manipulated unemployment rate will rise above 9%, while the real rate will surpass 25%.

I made what I thought was an outrageous prediction as an attempt at humor, but my outrageous prediction was closer to the truth. The working age population has grown by 3.7 million people, the number of employed people has gone up by only 2.7 million, 2.4 million people decided to kick back and leave the workforce, resulting in the unemployment rate “plunging” from 8.7% to 7.7%.

Measuring unemployment on par with the method used during the 1930s would put the level at 23% today. But you should trust the BLS. Why would they lie?

  • Ben Bernanke, Wall Street shysters and Barack Obama want you to be drawn in by the allure of short-term gains based on hopes of QE3. The stock market will be volatile in 2012 with stocks falling 20% when it becomes evident the country is going back into recession. Ben will try to ride to the rescue with QE3 as he buys up more toxic mortgage debt. Wall Street will do their usual touchdown dance celebration, but the bloom will fall off this rose fast, as quantitative easing has proven to be a failure in stimulating economic growth.Gridlock in Washington D.C., chaotic national conventions, and the implosion of Europe will contribute to the market finishing down by at least 15% for the year.

I hope you didn’t follow my stock market advice as it looks like I missed by only 25% or 30% with this prediction. It is amazing what zero interest rates for Wall Street banks, QE to infinity, high frequency trading supercomputers, and fake Wall Street earnings can do for a stock market. Since the recession has not been acknowledged and rigged corporate profits still sit near their peak, the stock market has continued to rise. I applaud the oligarchs for their ability to extract every last dime from the pockets of the middle class in their avaricious plundering of America. Bernie Madoff is proudly admiring their work from his prison cell.

  • The average price of oil will exceed $100 during 2012 resulting in the highest average gas price in history for American drivers. These high prices, along with various weather related issues will keep food prices elevated, with 5% or higher increases likely. This should spur a few more peasant revolutions around the globe.

I nailed this prediction. Americans paid the highest average price for a gallon of gasoline in history during 2012. Agricultural commodities like corn, wheat and soybeans soared by 7% to 20%, as the high oil prices and drought drove food prices higher. Meat prices will rise in 2013 as herds had to be thinned in 2012 because of the high feed costs. But don’t worry. The BLS will just adjust the food inflation away as they assume you switch from hamburger to cat food.

  • Gold will finish the year higher. As always, it will be volatile and manipulated by the powers that be. A drop below $1,500 in the beginning of the year is possible, but when Ben announces QE3, it will be off to the races. I expect gold to reach $1,900 by year end. Silver will be more volatile, but will likely reach $40 by year end.

Gold will finish the year higher for the twelfth consecutive year. It was volatile, with a high of $1,796 and a low of $1,527. It will finish the year in the mid $1,600s. Silver was equally volatile, but also up for the year. It ranged between $37.50 and $26. It will finish the year in the $30 range. The powers that be know that rising gold and silver prices reveal their deceitful inflationary master plan, so they use all of their market manipulative powers to suppress the prices of these metals. The higher our debt, the higher their prices will go. When the confidence game is revealed to be a Ponzi scheme, the prices of gold and silver will be unleashed.

  • Old line mall based retailers like Sears and J.C. Penney die a slow agonizing death as they stagger into the sunset like Montgomery Ward, Circuit City and thousands before them. 

I was wrong about JC Penney. They are dying a fast agonizing death as the idiot savant from Apple has driven them straight into the ground, with sales plunging by 26% versus last year. It isn’t a matter of if, but when this employer of 159,000 declares bankruptcy. The “brilliant” (Jim Cramer says so) Eddie Lampert has Sears on a glide path to liquidation. This Christmas season will reveal these CEOs to be frauds.

  • The Occupy Movement will become more extreme with more disruptions of the economic system with less warning so the authorities don’t have time to prepare. I expect more cyber hacking into Wall Street, government, and media computer networks, causing disarray and uncertainty regarding financial information. I expect the Democratic and Republican presidential conventions to be overrun by protestors. The authorities will respond with excessive force, resulting in further violent protests in other cities.  

Another 100% miss. The Occupy Movement splintered and petered out after being brutally dismantled by the armed mercenaries of the status quo. There were some cyber-attacks, but they caused minimal disruption. The masses are satiated with their techno-gadgets and reality TV shows. No one protested. No one cared.

  • The Federal government grows ever more panicked by the knowledge that its Ponzi scheme economy is going to collapse. This is why passage of the NDAA and the future passage of SOPA are so important to them. Imprisonment of citizens without charge and shutting down the only remaining means of truth – the Internet – are essential to retaining their power and control over the masses. At the same time, gun sales are at record levels. Critical thinking Americans can see the writing on the wall and no longer trust corrupt politicians of either party. Arming yourself and buying physical gold and silver is a prudent act in today’s world.

The outrage over SOPA, led by the alternative online media, stopped it from being passed. The tyrants continue their efforts to suppress free speech on the internet, as Facebook shuts down pages that do not conform to the corporate fascist government agenda. Gun sales are off the charts, as critical thinking people no longer trust the corrupt government. Physical gold and silver sales are soaring as critical thinking people no longer trust our corrupt economic system.

  • The ruling elite hand selected puppets for the 2012 presidential election are Obama and Romney. They are virtually interchangeable and both are acceptable to the Wall Street oligarchs. The monkey wrench in the gears is Ron Paul. He will run as a 3rd Party candidate and focus a light on the crony capitalism that passes for free markets in America today. He will be vilified by both parties and their media mouthpieces, but if he gains traction I fear an unfortunate accident will befall him. Either way, he will have a dramatic impact on the debate and the outcome of the 2012 election.

With this prediction I allowed my hope to overcome reason. The oligarchs are too powerful. Ron Paul’s grassroots campaign made the oligarchs extremely uncomfortable. He drew huge crowds of young people on college campuses across the country. His message of liberty and freedom resonated with millions, but he was no match for the billionaires that call the shots in this country. He was silenced by the Republican establishment and chose not to run as a 3rd party candidate. The puppet on the left won the election. The puppet on the right retreated to one of his six mansions. Ron Paul rode off into the sunset knowing he gave it his best shot.

  • It seems more likely by the day that someone will do something stupid in or around Iran and the Persian Gulf will explode into a virtual hell on earth. The unintended consequences of such a development will far outweigh the intended consequences. The revolutions, protests, and brewing civil wars in Egypt, Syria, Libya and Iraq will flare up even if Iran doesn’t explode into a shooting war. The tensions in the Middle East will keep oil prices above $100, despite a world plunging into recession.

The showdown between Israel and Iran did not happen in 2012, despite increasingly angry rhetoric. The stealth war with Iran began, as economic sanctions and cyber warfare have begun to destroy their economy and impoverish their people. Revolutions, riots, protests and civil war spread across the Middle East throughout 2012 resulting in high oil prices and a worldwide economic contraction which is picking up speed as 2012 comes to a conclusion.

  • China’s hard landing will arrive in 2012. Keynesianism on steroids has failed as they’ve built more than enough vacant malls, vacant cities, vacant condo towers, and bridges to nowhere. Property prices will plunge, exports will decline, and peasants will revolt as food and energy prices push them over the edge.

China has come in for a hard landing. With a government more corrupt than even ours, their reported economic data would make a BLS drone blush with pride. Property prices are falling. Exports are falling. But somehow they report economic growth of 7%. And the MSM dutifully reports this gibberish as truth. Unrest and protests are a daily occurrence in China, but they are immediately crushed. The Chinese authorities continue to clamp down on the internet and media. China’s economic system is a rotting Keynesian nightmare.

I also raised the generic possibilities of earthquakes, hurricanes, pandemics and terrorist attacks. I noted that a terrorist attack in a public venue might cause a government over-reaction. Even though the slaughter of young school children by a deranged mental defective doesn’t constitute a terrorist attack, the reaction by government officials and their liberal control freak allies in the mainstream media are exactly what I feared. Every tragedy is used to gain more control over our lives and take away our Constitutional rights in the name of safety and security. The ignorant masses willingly give up their freedom and liberty, believing their Orwellian government protectors will look out for them. As we enter 2013, time grows shorter. The power hungry psychopaths continue to pillage and plunder. Our unsustainable economic system struggles under the weight of debt, despair and delusion as the endgame approaches. The willfully ignorant populace is lost in their techno-narcissistic dream world.

Will 2013 be the year it all collapses in a flaming heap of rubble? I don’t know. Maybe you should ask an “expert”.

It guarantees to be an interesting year. I’ll be hiring Bonzo the chimp to help me make my 2013 predictions in the next week or so.




  1. Overall, not bad Jim. It’s all about timing at this point. The road is clear. Can’t wait ’til your prediction on the new Eagles coach.

  2. In retrospect, you did better than most. At least you can say your eyes are wide open when it comes to the economic, societal and political decay in this country. That’s better than 95% of the population.

  3. [email protected] says:

    @Admin: You were more right than wrong and were spot on for the general decay in our economy and civil society.

    Keep up the great work!

  4. I predict a war to divert attention from how fukd up everything is. The cost of everything going up.
    More police state stuff. I was trying to think of something positive,but Im not sure what effect China going downhill would have for the usa.
    Admin,im still curious how many votes or percentage Ron Paul got? Most likely anouther sign of how bad peoples thinking is.

  5. Things can be inevitable but their timing uncertain. It is inevitable the debt crisis in Europe, Japan and the US will come to ahead but when is difficult to say because so many powerful interests are desperate to forestall the inevitable. Hundreds of millions of people get up and go to work and do their best to avoid thinking about the central issue of our time. That debt is growing faster than our ability to pay it.

    Our Central Banks have bypassed the circuit breakers that would normally trip and warn us of a debt overload. The financial connections between banks and governments are glowing red hot but financial current still flows through the system and if anyone asks what that funny smell is they will be told it is nothing by the governments and financial institutions sucking as much financial amperage as the Central Bankers can pour into the circuitry of the economy. Now however is the time to start heading for the exit. The exact moment when the overheated circuitry bursts into flame is not important you just need to be outside when it does.

  6. You are much too hard on yourself, applying honesty and humility will get you nowhere in life, and especially in this country.


    1. “A shocking crime was committed on the unscrupulous initiative of few individuals, with the blessing of more, and amid the passive acquiescence of all.”

      Tacitus, Publius Cornelius

  7. Jim,

    Lemme help you start off your 2013 predicitions with a sure-fire winner; the Indiana Hoosiers WILL win the NCAA basketball tourney. Book it.

  8. Admin –

    Even when your predictions are wrong, you’re still a portion right. The EU changes faces each time they meet to discuss their future. With each bailout created the fundamentals of the entity change. I think you’re right here though it seems you were meaning to say that the EU would lose a member or two or would totally dissolve.

    As far as Occupy Wallstreet is concerned, it is my belief that anytime there is massive, continual, and coordinated coverage of some thing or some person via the MSM it is indicative of some type of product/idea trying to be sold that otherwise wouldn’t muster attention otherwise. I’m not surprised it fizzled though I actually think a similar movement that is more of a random groundswell will appear. The youth of this country are simply just to disenfranchised, regardless of the mechanism. Who could see an entire generation (give or take of course) that is just starting out in their professional lives with $1 trillion in student loan debt between them and no real prospects NOT exploding?

  9. A December 7th article in the Washington Post titled “Could Two Platinum Coins Solve the Debt-ceiling Crisis?,” It works like this;

    • The Treasury mints a $1 trillion coin, or whatever amount is desired.

    • The Treasury deposits the coin into the Treasury’s account at the Fed.

    • The Treasury buys back bonds.

    • The retirement of bonds is an asset swap, no different from QE2.

    • The increase in reserve balances is not inflationary, as Credit Easing 1.0, QE 1.0, and QE 2.0 already have shown.

    • These operations by the Treasury create no new net financial assets for the non-government sector.

    • The debt ceiling crisis is averted.


  10. Jim,

    Overall, you did pretty well. I’d say you got blindsided on some of your predictions because you wore rose-colored glasses on your sense of justice toward TPTB, ie. you firmly believed that “these bastards created this mess, and this is the year when they are going to get their just desserts.” Didn’t happen. You underestimated their power to deceive and manipulate. The banksters and their fellow travelers in Congress and the White House are still on top and still in charge.

    Now then, there are a few issues which you just didn’t see coming in 2012 and for which you paid dearly. I’ll cite just three.

    1. Southwest Airlines versus “Green Day” lead singer Billy Jo Armstrong. Here again, you wore rose-colored glasses, while ignoring the awful damage to our culture, and defended Armstrong’s reprehensible behavior in boarding a Southwest flight while wearing virtually no pants and subsequently got kicked off the flight. An alert reader took you to task over this absurd position and mopped the floor with your sorry ass.

    2. New Balance versus Sketchers sneakers. Your defense of New Balance sneakers was a tribute to Chinese slave labor and the fact you have flat feet. Again, an alert reader took exception to this absurd position, defended the solid merits of Sketchers, and mopped the floor with your sorry ass.

    3. Fracking for natural gas and shale oil. Solid science has shown that this 5,000 year old technology is absolutely without risk to the environment, yet you continued the “flat earth” claim that there may be some sort of laughable threat to water supplies and other such nonsense. Where do you come up with this shit? Thank the Dear Lord for that alert reader who took exception to this absurd position and mopped the floor with your sorry ass.

    Other than that, you did pretty well.

    1. The ravages of Alzheimers is on full display as an unnamed reader thinks that a shocking display of corporate stupidity happened in 2012 when it happened in September of 2011. Maybe he has been drinking flaming contaminated water from his tap. I think it also warps his sense of style, as he bought these sneakers for Christmas.

  11. Very respectable admin! As someone else alluded to, it’s mostly a matter of timing.

    I agree about underestimating the will of the oligarchs to make the most of this shit. By 2010 I was already burned out on expecting the big crash. It’s gonna be a long, slow ride to the bottom with some spine jarring bumps along the way. I vacillate almost daily in my expectations of this collapse.

  12. Your “data” on China is wrong. Overall good predictions with the knowledge at hand and knowing what we know. Back to China, not a fan of their government however the amount of resources they are accumulating around the entire planet is astonishing. They gold holdings are estimated to be somewhere between 2,000 to 4,000. They are readying themselves to be the next global super power.

  13. Admin-The horrific Christmas retail sales and declining corporate profits reveal the truth.

    Just a temporary glitch caused by Hurricane Sandy….no worry here.Compulsive consumerism to return at it’s regular scheduled time.
    It’s got to be true.It came from the fair and balanced news source

    Holiday Sales Barely Budge Amid Hurricane Sandy Drag

    By Matt Egan

    t was a roller coaster holiday season for retailers as the extensive damage caused by Hurricane Sandy led to negative sales in the first two weeks of November.

  14. ‘The U.S. is still bogged down in Afghanistan and has failed miserably in efforts to democratize the Middle East.”

    This is bullshit. The US, and especially the neocons and Israel lobby, couldn’t care less about democracy in the middle east. Their purpose is to use US military power to destroy middle eastern countries and their economies because it gives Israel power; power to annex more territory, power to steal water and other resources.

    1. You should see the ass kicking I’ve been giving David Pierre and his conspiracy butt buddies on Zero Hedge.

      That site really attracts nutjobs. They actually think I’m David Pierre. You can’t teach crazy.

  15. I like your economic analysis but your political views are childlike.
    Ron Paul get serious! He lived, worked and flourished, for a lifetime, as a Republican.
    He was welcomed in Republican circles because he kept his place and would always compromise his “principals” to his self interest. He was the Judas Goat to lead libertarians to the Republican trough. His son, in his brief political career, will be the same. How many ways can Ron spell hypocrite. Many more than you can spell martyr.

  16. My predictions:

    – – – 2013 will be when printed (no backing) money starts to flood the economy. Prices will rise significantly
    – – – 2014 will usher in a major flood of printed money with prices almost doubling.
    – – – 2015 will be when the USA government can’t fund things, so its power diminishes big time.
    – – – 2016 see the start of dissolution of the USA into various (independent) regions.

    My timing may be off, but that’s to where the extrapolation of current trends go.

    Have a happy new year.

  17. Excellent article again Jim. I didn’t really see much wrong and as you say it is usually just time factor more than a miss on your predictions. All these are things that we know are coming but always take longert than we think. The minds of the psycopaths in control are excellent at keeping the dog and pony show going longer than it should. I do believe the dominos of economic collapse will begin to fall at a rapid pace in early 2013. Basic staple foods here in Alaska are now becoming unreachable for the normal general public. Car gas is over $5.00 a gallon, diesel is $6.00 and a loaf of Wonderbread is $5.00. No one can afford those prices and still have a life or raise a family. I would say the rubberband is twisted about as tight as it can get. Something has got to give pretty soon. Very much looking forward to your 2013 Predictions. Keep up the great work as there are many many of us that are 100% on your team.

  18. Damn flash! I’m sorely tempted to sign up at WhiteHouse.gov just to sign that petition! Fuck that mentally impaired bitch! Alas, I don’t play White House games.

  19. You made some good calls, admin. I’m in agreement with the other comments with regards to timing…so easy to see the future but so damn hard to say exactly when a real collapse will happen.

    My own view is that it can be delayed far beyond what most of us would think… the reason being that a vast majority of Americans are totally snowed by the media and in denial of the worst kind. And of course, a majority will be happy as long as they get their free food and free money.

    It will be interesting to see if those of us at the top of the earned income heap can do anything to fight back against the ass raping they have planned for us. Frankly, it doesn’t look good.

  20. AK Outbacker-I don’t know where you are, but prices much lower than that in Fbks. Still high by Lower 48 standards, but gas is $3.50-$3.60 and diesel $4.10 right now (by far the lowest we’ve seen in a long time). I need to top of the oil tank while prices are (relatively) down-could be way up come break-up. Oh yeah, welcome aboard.

  21. This article is the true sign of greatness. You just don’t get such wisdom… and concession… from the average bear.

    Macro forecasting is THE most fickle endeavor, and this is all due as has been noted to timelines. As much of a douche it was who said it, it is wise to “change opinion to match the facts”.

    If you think about it, if different policy makers went down the list of predictions a year ago, they’d probably agree and certainly have acted to minimize, marginalize and mask the issues. Now we wait and see what distortions to reality have been wrought.

    Good retrospect questions: Who got the loot? From where? What’s missing? When a mouthpiece metaphorically yells and points “over there!” Where do the eyes really point and reveal?

    This article is absolutely refreshing. Props, Administrator. Lesser bloggers and newslettter charlatans will hide under rocks and appear when the coast is clear and chances for wasted funds for subscriptions to their one-trick-pony Erags are high.

    Keep it up, brada. Patience pays. Just ask Bass, Burry, and probably Hussman in a few months. Fundamentals, facts and patience. They matter.

    Now get to work with your new found humility and pump out another forecast.

    What is this, a fucking hobby?

  22. ROBERT

    Are you a freelance troll or the $7/hr kind? I suspect the former as no disinformation specialist would hire someone who knew not the difference between principal and principle.

    Here’s a little hint for your future elsewhere on the web: a little subtlety is better than the blunt instrument method.

    admin, nice work fairly grading your own predictions, a breath of fresh air by contrast.

  23. Jim,

    I am very glad you were wrong with your timing…it just means more time to prepare. The ending is already written. It is just timing that remains a question.

    Happy New Year.


  24. I didn’t have much quarrel with most of the 2012 predictions, but I did find them premature. I knew the Fed could keep a lid on things for a year or two but sooner or later your predictions will bear out. It’s the same situation in Europe where, for the time being, Germany backstops a bankrupt ECB. That too must end in a sort of reverse Roman Empire collapse whereupon the hordes of the south overrun the fortresses of the north. China’s future is also set, but that regime has an uncanny way of holding that lid down. When it finally blows, I wouldn’t want to be in Japan, Korea, or even Russia for that matter.

    The easiest prediction was the unraveling of the Middle East where; lets be honest, there isn’t much to unravel. The only guy that never seems to take a hit over there is that Mohammed fellow who is responsible for the whole lot. His status is assured and his gutter philosophy is regularly exported to such holy cities as Edinburg, Malmo and suburban Paris further aiding the unraveling of Europe as well. A 7th century religion funded by a 21st century welfare state. What could possibly go wrong?

    I disagreed on Ron Paul bolting for a third party but I thought the price would be at least an acknowledgement of some of his Libertarian beliefs, particularly when it comes to the Pentagon. The fact that every program over there is a sacred cow has to come to an end and I thought this would be the year for their comeuppance. Not quite. It turns out the old boy just ran out of steam which is understandable, although his farewell speech will be recited for many years after the apocalypse.

    I was actually optimistic going into 2012. As Winston Churchill once said, “Americans can always be counted on to do the right thing…after they have exhausted all other possibilities.” I thought this was the year we exhausted all other possibilities. After Bush’s soft socialism, and four years of radical Marxism, I assumed the country was ready for a return to what worked for 200 odd years. I didn’t think Romney would make an excellent standard bearer but I felt there was enough conservative and libertarian (thank you Ron Paul) leanings to begin to slow the slide to Gomorrah. The selection of Paul Ryan proved that at least one party was ready to seriously talk about entitlements which, despite all the excesses on the discretionary side, is the rock upon which the American experiment will ultimately crash. Alas, the entitlement mentality is much stronger than I could ever believe. This mentality, fueled by public sector union money ensured a win for the forces of government. Conservatives made gains in the states but for now the money and momentum is in Washington. Obama Care lives and will be fully implemented by the next time anyone gets to vote. Not one single federal entitlement will get smaller, but will in fact grow faster than base line estimates. Discretionary spending will beat the estimates as well.

    But for how long? America is over and we will go down with a might thud.

    Happy New Year everyone! At least I will get to attend one more Mummers Parade on the way out.

  25. All one really need do
    Is drive from Central City
    To Posh Suburbs
    And note
    The condition of the roads.

    The Government can not hide everything
    All The Time…


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