VIRTUALLY NO ONE IN COUNTRY GETS A NEW JOB IN LAST TWO MONTHS, BUT UNEMPLOYMENT RATE KEEPS FALLING

23 comments

Posted on 7th February 2014 by Administrator in Economy |Politics |Social Issues

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The brilliant Ivy League educated Wall Street employed economists and financial gurus predicted there would be 180,000 new jobs added in January and the pitiful December number of 74,000 would be revised upward. I guess missing by 37% is considered fine work for an Ivy League economist. Bonuses for everyone!!!

To give you some perspective, the working age population has risen by 348,000 in the last two months and one survey says that 188,000 jobs were created, while the other survey says that 781,000 more people are employed. This data is coming from the same BLS government drones. Which numbers are true, because they both can’t be right.

Do you really believe there has been a hiring surge in the last two months that has driven the unemployment rate down to a six year low? If you believe that, I have some fine beach front real estate in Syria I’d like to sell you.

A gander at the old birth death model might explain some of the discrepancy. The old seasonally adjusted bullshit excel model subtracted the least amount of jobs since 2008. This model is supposed to capture what is happening at small businesses. Do you really think that small businesses are hiring more people and laying off less people than they have done historically? Do you think Obamacare, declining retail sales, declining real household income, and higher taxes have convinced small business owners to ramp up hiring? Do you think the BLS model is capturing the closing of thousands of retail outlets across the country?

Here are a couple of pithy observations you won’t get from Jim Cramer and Steve Liesman as they spin the data for CNBC:

  • The working age population has risen by 2.3 million in the last year and only 1.8 million more Americans are employed (at low paying part time jobs). AMAZINGLY, the unemployment rate has PLUNGED from 7.9% to 6.6% over this same time frame. You’d have to be an ignoramus or an Ivy League economist to believe that BLS bullshit.
  • According to these BLS drones, 2.5 million Americans LEFT the workforce of their own free will because they supposedly no longer want a job. Is this a lie or has Obama made it so beneficial to live off welfare, food stamps, and SSDI that people have just decided to live off the state?
  • Think about the fact that almost 40% more Americans left the workforce in the last year than got a crappy job. Obama should have boasted about that fact during the SOTU that no one watched.
  • Over 10 million Americans have left the workforce during Obama’s reign of error, while the number of employed Americans is where it was in 2008. WINNING!!!!!
  • The BLS drones tell us that average wages are up 1.9% in the last year. If the unemployment rate has plunged, demand for workers should be higher and wages should be rising. Who’s lying?
  • Is your inflation rate more than 1.9%? I would say my inflation rate is closer to 5%. That means real wages are falling hard. I wonder why Christmas sales were so horrific across the board? If more people are employed and the GDP is rising by 4%, how come consumers didn’t spend?

The truth is that the BLS, CNBC, Wall Street and the rest of the propaganda mouthpieces for the ruling elite have one purpose and one purpose only. They are tasked with misinforming you, lying to you, keeping you sedated, and allowing the financial elite to keep ass raping you until they have extracted every last penny from your bank account. Know your enemy.

January Payolls Big Miss Again At 113K Below 180K Expected, December Unrevised

Tyler Durden's picture

So much for the hope of either a surge in January jobs, or a massive upward revision in the December print. Moments ago the January jobs number came out and at 113K, it was a huge miss to the expected 180K, but more importantly, the December number which was expected to be revised much higher was virtually unchanged at 75K, compared to 74K originally. The unemployment rate, which has become largely irrelevant, dipped to 6.6% from 6.7%, just so Obama can get the brownie points for fixing the economy. However, judging by the market reaction this is hardly what the traders think.

From the report:

Both the number of unemployed persons, at 10.2 million, and the unemployment rate, at 6.6 percent, changed little in January. Since October, the jobless rate has decreased by 0.6 percentage point. (See table A-1.)  (See the note and tables B and C for information about the effect of annual population adjustments to the household survey estimates.)

 

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (6.2 percent), adult women (5.9 percent), teenagers (20.7 percent), whites (5.7 percent), blacks (12.1 percent), and Hispanics (8.4 percent) showed little change in January. The jobless rate for Asians was 4.8 percent (not seasonally adjusted), down by 1.7 percentage points over the year. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)

 

The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more), at 3.6 million, declined by 232,000 in January. These individuals accounted for 35.8 percent of the unemployed. The number of long-term unemployed has declined by 1.1 million over the year. (See table A-12.)

 

After accounting for the annual adjustment to the population controls, the civilian labor force rose by 499,000 in January, and the labor force participation rate edged up to 63.0 percent. Total employment, as measured by the household survey, increased by 616,000 over the month, and the employment-population ratio increased by 0.2 percentage point to 58.8 percent. (See table A-1. For additional information about the effects of the population adjustments, see table C.)

 

* * *

 

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 113,000 in January. In 2013, employment growth averaged 194,000 per month. In January, job gains occurred in construction, manufacturing, wholesale trade, and mining. (See table B-1.)

23 Comments
  1. Administrator says:

    BLS Revises Historical Job Numbers Higher By Half A Million: A Look At The “Before” And “After”

    Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/07/2014 09:20 -0500

    With the HFT brigade selling then buying, and trying to goalseek an explanation of why this happened after the fact, one key aspect of today’s release that was ignored is that the BLS just revised its Establishment Survey data, in the process changing all historical job numbers. To wit: “Establishment survey data have been revised as a result of the annual benchmarking process and the updating of seasonal adjustment factors. Also, household survey data for January 2014 reflect updated population estimates.” As a result of this revision, while the monthly changes were not that dramatic, what happened is that the “stock” level of jobs as reflected in the Establishment Survey rose by half a million as of December 31, from 136,877 to 137,386. And so all key historic data – from GDP in early 2013 to jobs – has now been revised to reflect a more rosy economy, and instill consumers with even more confidence in hopes they will spend, spend, spend.

    7th February 2014 at 9:26 am

  2. TPC says:

    They can lie with the numbers all they want, everyone in the work force knows its getting worse, not better.

    7th February 2014 at 10:13 am

  3. Zarathustra says:

    Beachfront property in Syria sounds nice.

    7th February 2014 at 10:23 am

  4. davel says:

    “According to these BLS drones, 2.5 million Americans LEFT the workforce of their own free will because they supposedly no longer want a job.”

    I don’t know why you keep denying this fact. The CBO has reported that more and more people will leave the workforce because they can get free health insurance and don’t have to worry any longer about needing to work. These people are now free to pursue their lifelong dreams of riding unicorns and farting rainbows. Tra la, tra la, and a fiddle dee dee!

    7th February 2014 at 10:50 am

  5. card802 says:

    Obama is in my state today to sign the new Farm Bill. The Governor was not invited until the last minute, leading democrats are in glorious attendance, what happened to bi-partisanship? Maybe it had something to do with Snyder’s stand on right to work?

    80% of the farm bill is for food stamps, why work anymore.

    7th February 2014 at 11:40 am

  6. Thinker says:

    What? No need for the government drones to blame the unusually cold, snowy weather for higher unemployment??? Say it isn’t so!

    I posted Gallup’s Payroll to Population rate yesterday, showing further deterioration in the numbers. P2P measures the percentage of the U.S. adult population aged 18 and older that is employed full time by an employer for at least 30 hours per week. Since P2P isn’t seasonally adjusted, they give an 8.0% unemployment rate that is (it’s trending higher). And, just for good measure, they show the under-employment rate at 18.6% — trending much higher.

    Their bottom line:

    The overall percentage of the U.S. adult population that was employed full time for an employer dropped in January to 42.0%, its lowest point since March 2011. Further, despite a rise in labor force participation in January, the 33.8% of all Americans who were not in the workforce is high compared with the rates Gallup has found over the past four years. The combination of falling P2P and the modest increase in the labor force — attributable to more out-of-work Americans looking for work — pushed unemployment up by more than a full point, from 7.4% to 8.6%, without adjusting for seasonal variations.

    7th February 2014 at 11:47 am

  7. Joe Twelvepack says:

    If you believe that, I have some fine beach front real estate in Syria I’d like to sell you. ~Admin

    Faneffingtastic!!

    Will you take a Bank of America Visa card?

    7th February 2014 at 12:35 pm

  8. bb says:

    I am in Houston again on business and if you want a job you can get one especially in oil and natural gas.A lot of tech jobs available.This place is booming and has low unemployment compared to other states.

    7th February 2014 at 1:32 pm

  9. BUCKHED says:

    Beachfront. ….do you take Ayahtola Express ?

    7th February 2014 at 1:33 pm

  10. Thinker says:

    Oh come on, AWD… like you’re fooling anyone.

    7th February 2014 at 1:52 pm

  11. AWD says:

    Thinker

    You think too much

    7th February 2014 at 1:57 pm

  12. Thinker says:

    AWD

    Yeah, I’ve been told that a few times… :)

    7th February 2014 at 2:16 pm

  13. SKINBAG says:

    There is NO ECONOMIC RECOVERY ! I do not know ANYONE personally for whom their financial life is better now than before 2008. But I do know personally many hard working people (including myself) that are working harder and harder, running faster and faster just to maintain what they had years ago – and these are ‘the lucky ones’ ! We have taken jobs that pay much less, or we are working harder than ever before at our businesses for less money that we earned before. Many friends have cashed out their 401K’s, liquidated assets and such just to keep ‘the boat afloat’. Things out there are NOT looking any better for most of us. Many friends are scared and afraid of what may be the next shoe to drop.

    7th February 2014 at 2:26 pm

  14. card802 says:

    Final nail in the coffin will be an increase in minimum wage. Youth unemployment will rise further, as will home invasions, break-ins, purse snatching, shop lifting, knockout game.

    Winter is never going to end anyway….Fuck it, lets get this over with.

    7th February 2014 at 2:47 pm

  15. AWD says:

    Skin:

    This is the next shoe to drop. Hope! and Forward! it doesn’t happen to you (or me):

    What this formerly middle class lady is having to endure because of this horrible economy is absolutely tragic…

    Dear Mr. President,

    I write to you today because I have nowhere else to turn. I lost my full time job in September 2012. I have only been able to find part-time employment — 16 hours each week at $12 per hour — but I don’t work that every week. For the month of December, my net pay was $365. My husband and I now live in an RV at a campground because of my job loss. Our monthly rent is $455 and that doesn’t include utilities. We were given this 27-ft. 1983 RV when I lost my job.

    This is America today. We have no running water; we use a hose to fill jugs. We have no shower but the campground does. We have a toilet but it only works when the sewer line doesn’t freeze — if it freezes, we use the campground’s restrooms. At night, in my bed, when it’s cold out, my blanket can freeze to the wall of the RV. We don’t have a stove or an oven, just a microwave, so regular-food cooking is out. Recently we found a small toaster oven on sale so we can bake a little now because eating only microwaved food just wasn’t working for us. We don’t have a refrigerator, just an icebox (a block of ice cost about $1.89). It keeps things relatively cold. If it’s freezing outside, we just put things on the picnic table.

    7th February 2014 at 2:49 pm

  16. card802 says:

    A friend of mine is head of facility’s for a medical research company, he requires a full time painter for his in house maintenance crew.
    I’m helping him with his large list of applicants, you should see the list of ex managerial types, professional types, office worker types, applying to get a $14 an hour job painting. Sad.

    We are running a ad for some office help, invoicing, etc. Wow, the flood of applicants and the diversity of applicants is astounding. Some have experience, most have no experience, they are just applying for a job.
    One woman worked in DC, she moved here to help her mother, her husband is a disabled vet, said she had some real stories to tell about wasteful spending she has witnessed (her job was accounting) in Immigration and Nationalization. She concurs with the general opinion here, those in DC have no fucking clue about costs, or where the money comes from, to them, it’s just expected.

    7th February 2014 at 3:34 pm

  17. bb says:

    SKIN,my life is better.I’m making more money now then I ever did when I had a job.I pay a lot more in taxes and I don’t have a pension but that’s ok.Losing my job in 08 was one best things that happen to me besides getting out of a bad marriage..I learned some of the worse things that can happen can be a real blessing.

    7th February 2014 at 4:34 pm

  18. MikeG says:

    Sometimes I don’t understand why they just don’t be done with it, food stamps for everyone, $45 minimum wage. Socialist paradise…
    And at this point if anyone needs me, I’ll be the one in the 7 million dollar canoe, paddling over the horizon.

    7th February 2014 at 4:36 pm

  19. bb says:

    AWD ,glad you are back.I thought you had let these clowns run you off.

    7th February 2014 at 4:39 pm

  20. Administrator says:

    Crushing the Bears On NFP Day

    I know some might object to referring to today’s trading as ‘technical’ but I think that is exactly what it was.

    By technical I mean that those in the know saw the market structure of positions, to which they have an advantageous view, looked at the buying and selling pressures, saw a short term opportunity to profit, and then jammed the futures up hard after the Non-Farm Payrolls number came out. They ran the stops, and handed out some serious pain to traders who were positioned bearishly.

    They can do this in the absence of a consensus of more pedestrian selling volume. In a light volume market, dominated by the hot money traders, they can write their names in the snow with the tape. If you want to be a short term trader, you need to understand and respect that. In the intraday trade, fundamentals don’t mean squat, unless they are driving the herd to do something in force.

    That is not how it always is, at least not to this degree. But with computers dominating the course of the intraday trade and regulators held at bay, its taken on a larger footprint than what might ordinarily might be expected.

    The bad news is that in the face of some exogenous bad news, I would think this market is set up to melt down. That is because it is a snarky, in your face ‘professional market,’ not based on value but on bullshit, on short term money muscle and market gamesmanship.

    Does this strike you as improbable? Talk to me after the next crash, when the economic sages are running around waving their hands saying, ‘what happened, what happened?’

    And by the way, this is not sour grapes from a bear. I have ‘no’ short position and no stock positions for that matter. I just think this is one hell of a way to allocate capital and revive the real economy. It is a disgrace, and a shame.

    Have a pleasant weekend.

    Jesse

    7th February 2014 at 5:06 pm

  21. Stucky says:

    Admin

    I just submitted a story.

    7th February 2014 at 5:13 pm

  22. SKINBAG says:

    bb -

    Great that your work life is so FANTASTIC !

    Personally I am working in the natural gas drilling industry here in NE Pennsylvania. I moved here in the summer of 2011 because the home builing industry on Cape Cod was in a fucking DEPRESSION. My 40 – 50 hour work weeks with a two or three week vacation every summer are a distant memory now.
    Out here I work a 5 day on / one day off schedule – 12 hours each shift. Include travel time to and from work and getting ready for work and I have 15 hours per day invested in my job. I am grossing less than 1/2 of my former 6 figure income. I have NO FUCKING LIFE and I am ALWAYS TIRED.

    I am aqainted with at least 100 men out here and EVERY SINGLE ONE is here from somewhere else and EVERY SINGLE ONE is doing less well financially than they were years ago. Some are making only $12 per hour but are allowed to work 7 days per week 12 hours per day, so all that overtime helps to make $12 per hour ‘do able’ (try working these hours when you are 50 + years old!).

    So bb : “count your blessings for your enchanted work life.” So many of us are busting our ass’s for less and less.

    8th February 2014 at 11:53 am

  23. SKINBAG says:

    In addition, everyone here @ TBP knows damn well that the unemployment numbers are total bullshit ! So if the numbers are total bullshit, and if we know that the numbers are total bullshit and that the numbers are as ‘cooked as Bernie Madoff’s books’ then why do we / you / me even get our feathers ruffled over this unemployment nonsense ? (Other than the very noble cause of revealing the bullshit to the ‘bullshitter’s’ so as to in some small way let the bullshitters know that HEY ASSHOLE, real people are suffering out there !)

    If my memory serves me correctly the recession of the late 1980′s / early 1990′s was not even ‘officially’ recognized as a recession until years after the fact. But god damn it, I was in that recession and I was hurting and my family was hurting and my friends were hurting in that recession and I knew it WAS a recession, no matter what George Bush Sr. was telling me on the T.V. set.

    What troubles me most about these ‘unemployment figures’ is that no one is accounting for the men and women that were once middle class and now they are working 1 or 2 or 3 part time jobs (if they can even find one of those jobs) and not able to really ‘make it’ financially. Just see AWD’s post above or card802′s post for a small taste of the serious fucking pain that is out there in ‘our race to the bottom’.

    8th February 2014 at 12:19 pm

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