Written in 1997, giving potential scenarios after 2005 which might propel the Fourth Turning to the next level. Bullet point #4 on Page 273. Eerie.
THE FOURTH TURNING – PAGE 273 – BULLET POINT #4
Written in 1997, giving potential scenarios after 2005 which might propel the Fourth Turning to the next level. Bullet point #4 on Page 273. Eerie.
It wasn’t that long ago we were talking about bullet #2 on that page. In reality, we’ve seen various versions of all of those, from the H1N1 pandemic to the Boston Marathon bombing to Snowden. I’ve always loved how they continued that chapter with, “it’s highly unlikely any of these scenarios will actually happen,” when we’ve come pretty close on all of them.
Here is the 4th bullet point in case you don’t feel like clicking the link;
“Growing anarchy throughout the former Soviet republics prompts Russia to conduct training exercises around its borders. Lithuania erupts in civil war. Negotiations break down. U.S. diplomats are captured and publicly taunted. [My note; Too bad they didn’t capture Kerry.] The president airlifts troops to rescue them and orders ships into the Black Sea. Iran declares its alliance with Russia. Gold and oil prices soar. Congress debates restoring the draft.”
“It wasn’t that long ago we were talking about bullet #2 on that page.” ——-Thinker
Yeah, I think they nailed it!
“An impasse over the federal budget reaches a stalemate. The president and Congress both refuse to back down, triggering a near-total government shutdown. The president declares emergency powers. Congress rescinds his authority. Dollar and bond prices plummet. The president threatens to stop Social Security checks. Congress refuses to raise the debt ceiling. Default looms. Wall Street panics.”
Congress will never rescind his authority. They’ve already had ample reason and failed to act.
So were S & H really THAT good in ’97? I used to think they were smart; now I am beginning to suspect they made a pact with the devil in exchange for a glimpse in the crystal ball. No one is that good.
It helps to understand how they arrived at the Fourth Turning theory, AKAnon. Howe is an historian, economist and demographer. Bill Strauss was an historian, playwright and theater director who also had a law degree.
As they researched Generations, they began to realize that history repeated when a certain “generational constellation” took place. They also realized that each 4T resolved issues that were left unresolved by the prior 4T. You can hear their explanation for how they arrived at the theory at about the 15:20 mark.
Given that understanding that 4T resolve prior issues, it becomes a little easier for a historian to predict the likely outcomes of the next 4T. The Cold War was never really resolved, so it’s likely it will be now. The role of Federal government over the States is still festering from the Civil War era, and Federal spending remains an unresolved relic of New Deal programs. America’s imperialism throughout the world after WWII created animosity that led to terrorist actions against the U.S. All of these things fit patterns that recur throughout all of Western history, from the British Empire all the way back to the Medieval period. There’s a map of the recurring pattern on the Lifecourse website.
There’s a great 1997 C-Span interview with the two of them (looking very young!) that is good, if you have 30 minutes to spare. The book had just come out, we weren’t anywhere near the 4T / Crisis era and no one really understood exactly what they were trying to say.
That’s awesome stuff
Thanks Thinker S&H interview was excellent.
Regarding Ukraine, I just read on zerohedge that negotiations have fallen through, and to retaliate, Kerry has canceled a meeting with Putin, among other happenings.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-11/diplomacy-fails-ukraine-putin-rebuffs-kerry-proposal-kiev-issues-ultimatum-crimea-su?page=1
I mean, what the fuck? When negotiations break down is when you really NEED your diplomacy and decorum. Why the fuck have a Sec. of State if he won’t do shit in an actual event like this? What the fucking hell is so important that he can’t meet with the other side? The worst that can happen is no progress. Hell, even talking with them without any concrete results may help keep tensions from boiling over.
BamBam,
You`re a nice and on the right track lady but if the Kerry goes anywhere near Putin he will come home with an sore ass. And will ruin Obambam golf performace too.
FWIW, I used Obambam for some time now and not to trash your moniker. 🙂
Very prescient.
Did you read onto page 274? The authors state that as the crisis unfolds, people will not know who holds their mortgages.