“The risk of catastrophe will be very high. The nation could erupt into insurrection or civil violence, crack up geographically, or succumb to authoritarian rule. If there is a war, it is likely to be one of maximum risk and effort – in other words, a total war. Every Fourth Turning has registered an upward ratchet in the technology of destruction, and in mankind’s willingness to use it.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning


“In the need to develop a capacity to know what potential enemies are doing, the United States government has perfected a technological capability that enables us to monitor the messages that go through the air. Now, that is necessary and important to the United States as we look abroad at enemies or potential enemies. We must know, at the same time, that capability at any time could be turned around on the American people, and no American would have any privacy left such is the capability to monitor everything—telephone conversations, telegrams, it doesn’t matter. There would be no place to hide.

If this government ever became a tyrant, if a dictator ever took charge in this country, the technological capacity that the intelligence community has given the government could enable it to impose total tyranny, and there would be no way to fight back because the most careful effort to combine together in resistance to the government, no matter how privately it was done, is within the reach of the government to know. Such is the capability of this technology.

I don’t want to see this country ever go across the bridge. I know the capacity that is there to make tyranny total in America, and we must see to it that this agency and all agencies that possess this technology operate within the law and under proper supervision so that we never cross over that abyss. That is the abyss from which there is no return.”Frank Church on Meet the Press regarding the NSA – 1975

Ever since Edward Snowden burst onto the worldwide stage in June 2013, I’ve been wondering how he fits into the fabric of this ongoing Fourth Turning. This period of Crisis that arrives like clockwork, 60 to 70 years after the end of the previous Fourth Turning (Civil War – 66 years after American Revolution, Great Depression/World War II – 64 years after Civil War, Global Financial Crisis – 62 years after World War II), arrived in September 2008 with the Federal Reserve created collapse of the global financial system. We are now five and a half years into this Fourth Turning, with its climax not likely until the late-2020’s. At this point in previous Fourth Turnings a regeneracy had unified sides in their cause and a grey champion or champions (Ben Franklin/Samuel Adams, Lincoln/Davis, FDR) had stepped forward to lead. Thus far, no one from the Prophet generation has been able to unify the nation and create a sense of common civic purpose. Societal trust continues to implode, as faith in political, financial, corporate, and religious institutions spirals downward. There is no sign of a unifying regeneracy on the horizon.

The core elements of this Fourth Turning continue to propel this Crisis: debt, civic decay, global disorder. Central bankers, politicians, and government bureaucrats have been able to fashion the illusion of recovery and return to normalcy, but their “solutions” are nothing more than smoke and mirrors exacerbating the next bloodier violent stage of this Fourth Turning. The emergencies will become increasingly dire, triggering unforeseen reactions and unintended consequences. The civic fabric of our society will be torn asunder.    

In retrospect, the spark might seem as ominous as a financial crash, as ordinary as a national election, or as trivial as a Tea Party. The catalyst will unfold according to a basic Crisis dynamic that underlies all of these scenarios: An initial spark will trigger a chain reaction of unyielding responses and further emergencies. The core elements of these scenarios (debt, civic decay, global disorder) will matter more than the details, which the catalyst will juxtapose and connect in some unknowable way. If foreign societies are also entering a Fourth Turning, this could accelerate the chain reaction. At home and abroad, these events will reflect the tearing of the civic fabric at points of extreme vulnerability – problem areas where America will have neglected, denied, or delayed needed action.” – The Fourth Turning – Strauss & Howe


The core crisis element of debt is far worse than it was at the outset of this Crisis in September 2008. The National Debt has risen from $9.7 trillion to $17.5 trillion, an 80% increase in five and half years. It took 215 years for the country to accumulate as much debt as it has accumulated since the start of this Crisis. We continue to add $2.8 billion a day to the National debt, and the president declares it is time for this austerity to end. The total unfunded liabilities of the Federal government for Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, government pensions and now Obamacare exceeds $200 trillion and is mathematically impossible to honor. Corporate debt stands at an all-time high. Margin debt is at record levels, as faith in the Federal Reserve’s ability to levitate the stock market borders on delusional. Consumer debt has reached new heights, as the government doles out subprime auto loans to deadbeats and subprime student loans to future University of Phoenix Einsteins. Global debt has surged by 40% since 2008 to over $100 trillion, as central bankers have attempted to cure a disease caused by debt with more debt.

All of this debt accumulation is compliments of Bernanke/Yellen and the Federal Reserve, who have produced this new debt bubble with their zero interest rate policy and quantitative easing that has driven their balance sheet from $935 billion of mostly Treasury bonds in September 2008 to $4.2 trillion of toxic mortgage garbage acquired from their owners – the insolvent Too Big To Trust Wall Street banks. This entire house of cards is reliant upon permanently low interest rates, the faith of foreigners in our lies, and trust in Ivy League educated economists captured by Wall Street. This debt laden house of cards sits atop hundreds of trillions of derivatives of mass destruction used by the Wall Street casinos to generate “riskless” profits. When, not if, a trigger ignites this explosive concoction of debt, the collapse will be epic and the violent phase of this Fourth Turning will commence.

Civic Decay

The core crisis element of civic decay is evident everywhere you turn. Our failed public educational system is responsible for much of the civic decay, as a highly educated critical thinking populace is our only defense against a small cabal of bankers and billionaires acquiring unwarranted influence and control over our country. Our children have been taught how to feel and to believe government propaganda. The atrocious educational system is not a mistake. It has been designed and manipulated by your owners to produce the results they desire, as explained bluntly by George Carlin.

“There’s a reason that education sucks, and it’s the same reason it will never ever ever be fixed. It’s never going to get any better, don’t look for it. Be happy with what you’ve got. Because the owners of this country don’t want that. I’m talking about the real owners now, the big, wealthy, business interests that control all things and make the big decisions. They spend billions of dollars every year lobbying to get what they want. Well, we know what they want; they want more for themselves and less for everybody else. But I’ll tell you what they don’t want—they don’t want a population of citizens capable of critical thinking. They don’t want well informed, well educated people capable of critical thinking. They’re not interested in that. That doesn’t help them. That’s against their interest.”

The urban ghettos become more dangerous and uninhabitable by the day. The inner cities are crumbling under the weight of welfare spending and declining tax revenues. The very welfare policies begun fifty years ago to alleviate poverty have hopelessly enslaved the poor and ignorant in permanent squalor and destitution. The four decade old drug war has done nothing to reduce the use of drugs. It has benefited the corporate prison industry, as millions have been thrown into prison for minor drug offenses. Meanwhile, millions more have been legally addicted to drugs peddled by the corporate healthcare complex. The culture warriors and advocates of new rights for every special interest group continue their never ending battles which receive an inordinate amount of publicity from the corporate media. Class warfare is simmering and being inflamed by politicians pushing their particular agendas. Violence provoked by race and religion is growing by the day. The fault lines are visible and the imminent financial earthquake will push distress levels beyond the breaking point. Once the EBT cards stop working, all hell will break loose. Three days of panic will empty grocery store shelves and the National Guard will be called out to try and restore control.  

Global Disorder

The core crisis element of global disorder is evident everywhere you turn. The false flag revolution in the Ukraine, initiated by the U.S. and EU in order to blunt Russia’s control of natural gas to Europe, has the potential to erupt into a full blown shooting war at any moment. The attempt by Saudi Arabia, Israel and the U.S. to overthrow the Syrian dictator in order to run a natural gas pipeline across their land into Europe was blunted by Russia. Iraq is roiled in a civil war, after the U.S. invaded, occupied and destabilized the country. After 12 years of occupation, Afghanistan is more dysfunctional and dangerous than it was before the U.S. saved them from the evil Taliban. Unrest, violent protests, and brutal measures by rulers continue in Egypt, Turkey, Thailand, Venezuela, Bahrain, Brazil, and throughout Africa. American predator drones roam the skies of the world murdering suspected terrorists. The European Union is insolvent, with Greece, Spain, Italy and Portugal propped up with newly created debt. Austerity for the people and prosperity for the bankers is creating tremendous distress and tension across the continent. A global volcanic eruption is in the offing.

It is clear to me the American Empire is in terminal decline. Hubris, delusion, corruption, foolish disregard for future generations and endless foreign follies have set in motion a chain of events that will lead to a cascading sequence of debt defaults, mass poverty, collapsing financial markets, and hyperinflation or deflation, depending on the actions of feckless bankers and politicians. There is no avoiding the tragic outcome brought on by decades of bad choices and a century of allowing private banking interests to control our currency. The “emergency” QE and ZIRP responses by the Federal Reserve to the Federal Reserve created 2008 financial collapse continue, even though the propaganda peddled by the Deep State tries to convince the public we have fully recovered. This grand fraud cannot go on forever. Ponzi schemes no longer work once you run out of dupes. With societal trust levels approaching all-time lows and foreign countries beginning to understand they are the dupes, another global financial crisis is a lock.

The Snowden Factor

With ten to fifteen years likely remaining in this Fourth Turning Crisis, people familiar with generational turnings can’t help but ponder what will happen next. Linear thinkers, who constitute the majority, mistakenly believe things will magically return to normal and we’ll continue our never ending forward human progress. Their ignorance of history and generational turnings that recur like the four seasons will bite them in the ass. We are being flung forward across the vast chaos of time and our existing social order will be transformed beyond recognition into something far better or far worse. The actual events over the coming decade are unknowable in advance, but the mood and reactions of the generational archetypes to these events are predictable. The actions of individuals will matter during this Fourth Turning. The majority are trapped in their propaganda induced, techno distracted stupor of willful ignorance. It will take a minority of liberty minded individuals, who honor the principles of the U.S. Constitution and are willing to sacrifice their lives, to prevail in the coming struggle.

Despite fog engulfing the path of future events, we know they will be propelled by debt, civic decay, and global disorder. Finding a unifying grey champion figure seems unlikely at this point. I believe the revelations by Edward Snowden have set the course for future events during this Fourth Turning. The choices of private citizens, like Snowden, Assange, and Manning, have made a difference. The choices we all make over the next ten years will make a difference. A battle for the soul of this country is underway. The Deep State is firmly ingrained, controlling the financial, political and educational systems, while using their vast wealth to perpetuate endless war, and domination of the media to manipulate the masses with propaganda and triviality. They are powerful and malevolent. They will not relinquish their supremacy and wealth willingly.

Snowden has revealed the evil intent of the ruling class and their willingness to trash the Constitution in their psychopathic pursuit of mammon. The mass surveillance of the entire population, locking down of an entire city in pursuit of two teenagers, military training exercises in major metropolitan areas, militarization of local police forces by DHS, crushing peaceful demonstrations with brute force, attempting to restrict and confiscate guns, molesting innocent airline passengers, executive orders utilized on a regular basis by the president, and treating all citizens like suspects has set the stage for the coming conflict. Strauss & Howe warned that history has shown armed conflict is always a major ingredient during a Fourth Turning.

“History offers even more sobering warnings: Armed confrontation usually occurs around the climax of Crisis. If there is confrontation, it is likely to lead to war. This could be any kind of war – class war, sectional war, war against global anarchists or terrorists, or superpower war. If there is war, it is likely to culminate in total war, fought until the losing side has been rendered nil – its will broken, territory taken, and leaders captured.” The Fourth Turning – Strauss & Howe -1997

It appears to me the Deep State is preparing for armed conflict with the people. Why else would they be utilizing Big Brother methods of surveillance, militarization of police forces  and Gestapo like tactics of intimidation to control the masses? This doesn’t happen in a democratic republic where private individuals are supposed to know everything done by public government servants, not vice versa. They know the cheap, easy to access energy resources are essentially depleted. They know the system they have built upon a foundation of cheap energy and cheap debt is unsustainable and will crash in the near future. They know their fiat currency scheme is failing.They know it is going to come crashing down.  

They know America and the world will plunge into an era of depression, violence, and war. They also know they want to retain their wealth, power and control. There is no possibility the existing establishment can be purged through the ballot box. It’s a one party Big Brother system that provides the illusion of choice to the Proles. Like it or not, the only way this country can cast off the shackles of the banking, corporate, fascist elites, and the government surveillance state is through an armed revolution. The alternative is to allow an authoritarian regime, on par with Hitler, Stalin and Mao, to rise from the ashes of our financial collapse. This is a distinct possibility, given the ignorance and helplessness of most Americans after decades of government education and propaganda.       

The average mentally asleep American cannot conceive of armed conflict within the borders of the U.S. War, violence and dead bodies are something they see on their 52 inch HDTVs while gobbling chicken wings and cheetos in their Barcalounger. We’ve allowed a banking cartel and their central bank puppets to warp and deform our financial system into a hideous façade, sold to the masses as free market capitalism. We’ve allowed corporate interests to capture our political system through bribery and corruption.

We’ve allowed the rise of a surveillance state that has stripped us of our privacy, freedom, liberty and individuality in a futile pursuit of safety and security. We’ve allowed a military industrial complex to exercise undue influence in Washington DC, leading to endless undeclared wars designed to enrich the arms makers. We’ve allowed the corporate media and the government education complex to use propaganda, misinformation and social engineering techniques to dumb down the masses and make them compliant consumers. These delusions will be shattered when our financial and economic system no longer functions. The end is approaching rapidly and very few see it coming.

Glory or Ruin?

The scenario I envision is a collapse of our debt saturated financial system, with a domino effect of corporate, personal, and governmental defaults, exacerbated by the trillions of currency, interest rate, and stock derivatives. Global stock markets will crash. Trillions in paper wealth will evaporate into thin air. The Greater Depression will gain a choke-hold around the world. Mass bankruptcies, unemployment and poverty will sweep across the land. The social safety net will tear under the weight of un-payable entitlements. Riots and unrest will breakout in urban areas. Armed citizens in rural areas will begin to assemble in small units. The police and National Guard will be unable to regain control. The military will be called on to suppress any and all resistance to the Federal government. This act of war will spur further resistance from liberty minded armed patriots. The new American Revolution will have begun. Leaders will arise in the name of freedom. Regional and local bands of fighters will use guerilla tactics to defeat a slow top heavy military dependent upon technology and vast quantities of oil. A dictatorial regime may assume power on a Federal level. A breakup of the nation into regional states is a distinct possibility.

With the American Empire crumbling from within, our international influence will wane. With China also in the midst of a Fourth Turning, their debt bubble will burst and social unrest will explode into civil war. Global disorder, wars, terrorism, and financial collapse will lead to a dramatic decrease in oil production, further sinking the world into depression. The tensions caused by worldwide recession will lead to the rise of authoritarian regimes and global warfare. With “advances” in technological warfare and the proliferation of nuclear warheads, this scenario has the potential to end life on earth as we know it. The modern world could be set back into the stone-age with the push of a button. There are no guarantees of a happy ending for humanity.

The outcome of this Fourth Turning is dependent upon the actions of a minority of critical thinking Americans who decide to act. No one can avoid the trials and tribulations that lie ahead. We will be faced with immense challenges. Courage and sacrifice will be required in large doses. Elders will need to lead and millennials will need to carry a heavy load, doing most of the dying. The very survival of our society hangs in the balance. Edward Snowden has provided an example of the sacrifice required during this Fourth Turning. How we respond and the choices we make over the next decade will determine whether this Fourth Turning will result in glory or ruin for our nation.

“Eventually, all of America’s lesser problems will combine into one giant problem. The very survival of the society will feel at stake, as leaders lead and people follow. The emergent society may be something better, a nation that sustains its Framers’ visions with a robust new pride. Or it may be something unspeakably worse. The Fourth Turning will be a time of glory or ruin.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

Click these links to read the first two parts of this three part series:

Do No Evil Google – Censor & Snitch for the State

Google, China, the NSA and the Fourth Turning


  1. BRING IT ON !

    I am so very tired of this waiting or ‘gestation’ period. I have been going through my own personal “Forth Turning” since 1989 when the RTC (Resolution Trust Corporation -” Resolving the crises, Restoring the Trust”) took over my local Savings & Loan and ruined my economic business / personal life when they called in my loans (non of which were in arrears !).

    So, on a personal level there is not a day that has gone by that I have not wished for whatever ‘catalyst’ that ignites the shit storm to appear here in the USA. As the weeks turn into months and the months into years this waiting shit is getting old. I do feel at this time that we are getting very close to ‘ignition’ of the festering tinder and decrepit undergrowth. Let the house cleaning begin !

  2. Well, shit.

    That was a rosy read for a Thursday morning, it’s going to be hard keeping motivated working the drudgery with a future like that. The wife and I have been talking about cashing the business in, hook up the RV and just travel the country. Maybe look for a hidey hole somewhere other than Michigan, been awful cold and snowy this winter.

  3. I totally agree Admin, very well done.

    Admin —> A breakup of the nation into regional states is a distinct possibility

    I see this happening without a doubt, States will be adrift, when the lure of Federal funding is no more. The States will careless what the Feds think and will pass laws in their own interests, to hell with the Feds will be the cry. Conservative Southern States will ban together, common culture will demand it.

    Side Note; I can’t wait to see what happens to Democratic shit holes infested with free shit army parasites.

    I made the decision in the early 2000’s to ride this storm out in a rural location. The east and west coasts along with large population centers will be killing fields. Look at your TV screen, when you see riots and militarized police forces shooting the populace it’s always in an urban setting.

    Free Advice——> Get Rural —-> Get Ready.

  4. Every morning I wake up in the dark and make my way downstairs for a small pot of coffee. This is when I have a few minutes to myself, to prepare mentally for the day ahead, to catch up on email or knock out a chapter of of whatever I have been reading. Lately the first place I have looked each morning when I boot up the desktop is The Burning Platform. I don’t recall when I first came across it- maybe through zerohedge or some other blog, but for sometime now it has been a touchstone for me because it resonates with what I see, hear, and know about my country and our time.

    I don’t look forward to what is coming no matter how well prepared I think we may be. The unraveling will cost us all dearly, but I would prefer to be wide awake to the troubles of my day and ready myself than to remain ignorant.

    Over the last couple of weeks my oldest son and I have spent most of our days deep in the forested mountainside tapping maple trees for the sap run. It is quiet work in deep snow and while it may look at the end of a long Winter as if everything is dead and frozen, there are signs everywhere of rebirth and new life; the pale pink of buds on the tips of rock maple branches, the sound of water moving under five foot of snowpack, the tracks of a single bear come out of hibernation looking for nourishment. Our family depends on this work that we do and while most teenage boys are warm and comfortable thumbing electronic gadgetry in a heated wreckroom, I can see in my son an emergent independence and capability that I know will carry him through a future that I will not live to see.

    While I am not a particularly religious man, I have always found comfort in cerrtain biblical truths that apply to us always, and I think this sums it up best-

    To every thing there is a season, and a time to every purpose under the heaven

  5. Hardscrabble, I remember exactly how I found TBP. Just after the last stock market crash I started looking for answers myself rather than a broker, that somehow lead me to Casey Research, they had a article about the Fourth Turning, that lead to more searching about 4T, that lead me here.

    The newest doom and gloom book I’m reading, Holding Their Own, set in 2015, the economy still sucks after years of stimulus and QE, unemployment is high, inflation has finally taken hold, mini riots around the country etc etc.
    Iran has been patiently waiting to strike us at our weakest, and chooses this time frame as we are still fighting battles all around the globe being the world police and we are beyond bankrupt.

    First they use nerve gas on major highways to kill 30k people in three big city’s, so the highways are shut down for three days, we relax and open the roads, then they hit three major bridges, so we shut down the roads again. Basically they use less than 20 agents to create fear in numerous major cities shutting down the entire country, think how Boston was shut down for three days after the marathon bombing.

    We strike Iran with two EMP’s shutting them down. We leave NATO, leave the UN, give all foreigners ten days to leave the country or they will be deported. Wars then break out around the world, China takes Taiwan, N Korea invades S Korea, etc etc.

    Military is called back to impose marshal law, FEMA camps, family’s torn apart, roving gangs, rampant theft, shootings, gloom, doom.

    You know, world wide Fourth Turning.

  6. I agree with Sensetti, this Fourth Turning will be affecting every region differently. I would much rather live in the South. When the Federal money stops flowing to Liberal Urban areas chaos with reign. There are more agricultural opportunities in the South. Acres are relatively cheap and we are close to many bodies of water. The worst places to be will be in regions with dense populations overly dependent on goods being delivered by semi-trucks. Or a region that has a harsh winter. If money to clear roads stops and another winter with a Polar Vortex happens, the North will be screwed.

  7. “The worst places to be will be… a region that has a harsh winter.”

    “Sometimes the worst place to be is the best place to be.” -My Batallion Commander, circa 1980

    “Only the flexible survive” -Personal Motto

  8. HSF- Depends on what resources you have. I am just recalling situations in that past couple of years that has caused resource shortages. I.E. Hurricane Sandy. People quickly ran out of their basic needs within a short time frame.

  9. Good job admin,another scary but well written article…the average mentally asleep American can’t conceive of armed conflict within the borders of the US…but this is what’s coming to the US especially in the urban areas.Civil unrest ,riots and a hurricane of crime will hit this nation.Then war with even more violence and bloodshed.The average American will be in a zombie state of mind and for most there will be no way to escape.

    On a lighter note ,I was reading Michs Global Economic blog when I discovered TBP .Got on site and the first thing I saw was an argument between Stucky,AWD and Mr Z .I thought this looks interesting and I have been coming back since that day.

  10. Ha 🙂 Lost a long comment. Oh well.

    Highlights :

    Peter Savich – 4T is the People versus the Corporations :

    My timeline of 4T Crises :

    1780 Rev War
    1860 Civ War
    1940 WWII
    2020 ???

    80 years like clockwork (give or take 5 years or so).

    I stopped posting everywhere last year – this is probably the first real post I’ve made in many months – I’ve noticed others kind of winding down as well – Denninger, one of the most prolific and intense closed his forum this last month, Rawles has turned his site over to a substitute. It’s as if all the utility of the internet has been exhausted .

    I think it is a subconscious thing – the next Crisis is just a single Flash Crash away – and it’s all just Too Late.

    Strauss & Howe published all this in 1997 – 17 years ago and every single thing they said was going to come true HAS come true, yet The Burning Platform is one of the very few that still tells their story. Kudos on that 🙂 If there is one thing I have internalized in the last 50+ years it is that the truth, the real truth, is always completely abhorent to homo saps.

    Personally, I kind of cut this all pretty close. When I read the 4T in the late 90’s and knew this was all coming I went on vacation for many years – one last chance to see and experience the world. The last 5 years I have spent making as much money, buying as many supplies as I could.

    This week I gave notice at my job and will be consolidating all that stuff in Rawles’s ReDoubt getting all my ducks in a row – probably a little late, but so far I have always been early on everything so probably still ok.

    War is coming, of this I have little doubt. I’ve spent a lot of time studying WWII and the thing the two things that stuck out to me the most were first, the incredible tech advance in warmaking abilities in the years 1935 to 1945 (biplanes to A-bombs) and second, that in Total War nothing is off the table – if a weapon has been devised, or even could be devised (A-bombs) it WILL be used.

    Now look at the state of tech today and imagine a similar meteoric rise in capabilities – I cannot even imagine how badly the next ten years could all go – it’s 1934 right now in terms of the Fourth Turning – care to imagine 2025 / 1945 ?

    Jim – thanks for keeping the 4T book / theory out there and alive, and I hope that you are not only wasting the time trying to wake the unwakeable, but that you are making some concrete steps to protect those you love.


    Everybody, sooner or later, sits down to a banquet of consequences.
    – Robert Louis Stevenson

    You cannot wake a man who is only pretending to be asleep.
    – Navajo Proverb

  11. Admin.,

    Good read for making Thursday feel shitty. Going to buy 4/18 lb bags of charcoal at Costco. I have a Valcano stove that you can cook a whole meal with 10/14 briquettes (four bag limit). I already have 6 bags stored. I get my 1200 SF shop next Tuesday, and will have some serious space to bunker in.

  12. I sometimes feel like a traveling salesman for The Fourth Turning book. Changed my life, my outlook – even those who know….WHO KNOW, somethings wrong mostly seem to ascribe their theories to tangents and symptoms. These are smart people too, along the way anyone profiting from mal-investment and its cousins just parrot away the upside and hope and such bullshit. I don’t want it to come, and I know it will, because unless you’re living like a fucking caveman – the risk to the downside is just too great. But still, it marches on straight at me – at us, unstoppable. How we can go ’round and ’round and repeat the same shit over and over throughout time is the greatest mystery of all. I often think its the survivors – the hero gen, that once they’ve seen, sacrificed, and felt the soul gripping fear of the unknown but all too real…….just want to forget it all and move on, move forward. Whoever comes through I sincerely hope they just repeat that one lesson, just that one told to young kids – I guess they’ll be artists like my silent parents, what do they call ’em, ‘homelanders’? But, if we survive we’ll celebrate it and hold it up to courage and drive and will and determination which are all true, but mostly like a sporting event where one wins and one loses based on a variety of factors, it was just a lucky outcome. Brace for impact and spread the word I guess.

  13. Admin, your recent essays on the Police State are really spot on.

    I think people are genuinely afraid now. Not sure if that fear will transform into rage against the psychos who are doing the spying – but at least people are waking up. They are increasingly aware.

    Every day, when I am out and about – running errands, in a meeting – people spontaneously mention how awful things really are and how out of control the government is. It’s in the air. It’s a vibe that is pervasive.

    Maybe that is the beginning of the broader awakening. Perhaps there are more of us than we think.

    The bolder big gov gets in seizing our guns and what few assets we have left – may be our saving grace. The fascist/marxist/globalists are enboldened – they don’t even pretend to follow the law anymore.

    Their arrogance will be there downfall. In the end, it always comes down to math. There are far more of us than there are of them.

    That is our distinct advantage – and they know it.

  14. I occasionally watch a little mindless TV with the wife in the evening ( I had been re-reading “Confessions Of An Economic Hitman ” earlier ),one of her favorite shows is Revolution .

    On last nights episode it should a ” Patriot Movement” leader whose words spoke of reforming the Good Ole’ USA into the Republic it once was ( it never was really ). However his words spoke of Fascist tactics on the people,of mind games and force.

    I thought to myself this is a real scenario …..My God I hope there are some true Libertarians in the mix when TSHTF .

  15. “I am so very tired of this waiting or ‘gestation’ period.”

    Hate to break the bad news, but it’ll probably last at least another 50 years. Oh, and:

    Don’t have kids.

  16. I read this article and then sat and placed myself in a scenario:
    Would I stand for what I know to be true, and perhaps sacrifice myself, either through my life or freedom, or would I kow tow to the powers that be and walk in chains?
    There is no way to answer this question until the time is in front of me. There is no way to purposefully decide this thing.
    But I do know this:
    We all, who are living, will be forced to make this choice. We may reason that there is no hope of change, that there is no way our one choice can make any difference at all. That we are but one person in a sea of persons struggling.
    And that may well be true. But ponder this as well:
    What if my choice to stand for freedom and truth results in my imprisonment or even death? And what if, that action with an equal reaction against my person or freedom results in 1 person seeing it and making the choice to stand with me? Or 10 people? Or 100 people? What if those 100 people now choose to also stand for freedom, and they, in turn, influence 10,000 to stand.
    Now, think on this:
    What if I choose to just go along. Say nothing. Do nothing. And those same 100 people see me do nothing and so are not stirred to action and never influence the 10,000.
    “Never! I would stand!”
    Easy words to say. Remember Nazi Germany, where a whole country did nothing. But now remember people like Oskar Schindler, who did stand, and saved hundreds of lives. Yes, Oskar stood in secrecy, he had no choice. Your stand and mine may also be in secrecy.
    We all know about Schindler due to a famous movie. How many more like him were out there? We truly will never know.
    My stand may cost me the ultimate penalty. I cannot know. I also cannot know what it will be, when it will happen, and if I will have the peace in myself to make that stand. Perhaps, right now, someone reading this will be the one to make their stand which will, in turn, influence me to make mine.

  17. On a lighter note, there is an opening for a grey champion with leadership and vision from the boomer generation……any takers? Stucky – your nation needs you buddy, get in the game. Its time.

  18. “Would I stand for what I know to be true, and perhaps sacrifice myself, either through my life or freedom, or would I kow tow to the powers that be and walk in chains? There is no way to answer this question until the time is in front of me.” ———— Realestatepup

    If you’re going to wait until the last minute, when the Goons are pointing their guns in your face, then you have waited too long. You will back down.

    I’m guessing here, but I’ll bet Oskar Schindler’s decision to put his life on the line was NOT a last minute decision, but rather one based on a lifetime of living his moral convictions. When it came time to make a decision, the decision was already made decades earlier.

  19. It would appear that the only place left on Earth where the prying eyes of the Deep State cannot see is aboard a Malaysian Jumbo jet.

  20. Maybe we should call this “The Final Turning”. The resource gradients we’ve taken down to build civilization, such as it is, are not coming back. The water will be full of fracking shit or Fukushima DNA splitting micro-bullets, the soil mostly washed away, the fossil fuels providing an EROEI of maybe 3:1, and what’s left? A climate that’s going to be playing whack-a-human for the next 10,000 years? And by the way kiss ALL the coastal cities and development goodbye, it’s baked into the CO2 cake. When a cancer grows in an exponential manner like this we all know the end result. Homeostatic disruption without recourse, also known as death. The Final Turning.

  21. Perhaps there is a silver lining in the cloud that was the Malaysian jetliner’s demise. Surprising, but the almighty surveillance state can’t seem to find the thing. Maybe it isnt as omnipotent as we think.

  22. First, great piece, Jim. And welcome to all the new commentors, who seem to have a good grasp of 4T theory. Hope you hang around and weigh in more.

    Stucky, I was thinking of that exact example in response to “Pup’s” great comment. But it’s not just the Nazi’s in Germany; think of Lenin, Stalin, Mao and all the other major turning points throughout history… people who kept quiet were herded into box cars or ghettos. They were often forced labor. They were most often starved — some to the point of cannibalizing their own children. Those that stood up at the beginning may have paid for it with their lives, but before those lives became unbearable. Something to keep in mind… and it’s easier to overcome them if you fight at the beginning rather than later, when you’re weakened. At least you have half a chance.

    Now, as for how this 4T may turn, I think it’s important to consider something we don’t talk about much here… the fall of the U.S. to another foreign entity. Yes, it will be difficult, but bear with me.

    While it’s likely that we will fight the government and maybe break into new, independent regions or nations, it’s also possible that a country like China could invade in an attempt to capture territory to offset their financial losses from a financial collapse. After all, they have some 21 million young men with few marital or economic prospects; they can afford a huge loss of life in an attempt to gain control over land, water and agricultural resources needed for their growing population. And, frankly, what is stopping the US oligarchs from deciding to cede parts of the US in order to pay their debts? It’s not like they care. If it means having to round up and remove all the Americans in order to do it, they’re already well-positioned to do so.

    Extreme example, but it’s important that we begin to think of all the elements that this Crisis may include. 4T wars are “total” wars, as pointed out above. Everybody and every thing is involved, one way or another. To think we can be excepted due to difficulty of attacking the US is just not thinking through it clearly. And as someone pointed out, it could also involve an EMP attack here, terrorist actions against our infrastructure or any number of other “easy” actions. We need to be prepared for anything.

  23. The nazi guards developed a special contempt and hatred for the jews they marched to their death because there were only four of them (albeit with machine guns) and hundreds of jews who could have taken them en masse.

    The take-a-way? They learned to hate others’ fear. And act on it.

  24. Stucky, I cannot know what forces will bring me to my choice, my stand. People evolve and change throughout their lives.
    Schindler was a drunk early in his life, and like most wealthy Germans followed along with the party to maintain their wealth and lifestyle, knowing openly crossing the party would mean certain doom.
    Something, somewhere, changed for him. A switch was flipped. He had what many lack today. Empathy.
    I know that I have empathy. I believe that this can help me make the right decision when the time comes. But there is no guarantee. I do not consider myself a hero at all.
    We are purposefully lacking in the hard choices today. Our ancestors were not. The early Colonials made hard choices every day, where even the simple act of marrying and becoming pregnant was inherently dangerous, but done for love of family.
    What choices do we make that truly entail sacrifice? Is deciding to not drink bottled water are hard choice? Eating organic? No.
    We are led to believe these are difficult decisions to make.
    A hard decision would be to flee your home, your town, and all you have known, with young children in tow, to escape. Take very little, have few comforts, and set out into an unknown.
    To stand and say that the policies of a ruling class are wrong, and harmful, even faced with a gun in your face, or imprisonment. Or worse, a gun pointed at your wife, or your husband, or son, or daughter.
    It means trusting and knowing your neighbors, and hoping that they are who they say they are, like minded, who want to live as you do.
    It means feeling truly outraged on a personal level regarding what is being done (or not done) and choosing to do more than tweet about it.
    We live in a soft world, Stucky. None of us, NONE can say what our reaction will be when faced with this choice. True violence has been removed from us so that we do not know it.
    The fight to live is strong in all creatures, more so in those with higher intelligence. However, as humans we can consciously make the choice to sacrifice our well-being and even our lives if we feel it is for the greater good. We can choose to live or die for what we perceive to be a higher purpose. But it is not made lightly.

  25. No doubt some who might visit this site out of curiosity will consider much of the commentary here to be from the extreme “fringe” who are always crying that doomsday is coming.

    But too many automatically have blind faith that somehow our country is immune to failure and that things will be “just fine” indefinitely. Most just don’t pay attention to what’s going on, don’t know much about history, and live in the present with blinders on.

    However, anyone with at least some awareness that things seem to be getting worse must start to consider what they might do if things keep getting worse. It’s the old “Hope for the best but prepare for the worst” advice. Weighing one’s options is what any person with common sense does. Not doing this results in being blindsided with a much greater chance of losing one’s life if things really start deteriorating.

    Urging major “reform” as I’ve often done may already be a lost cause since as others have pointed out because trying to wake up enough people quickly enough is impossible. Even if by miracle most suddenly saw the light and decided to revolt across our country to force drastic political change, what would be the result? If there wasn’t miraculous agreement on solving our many serious problems then chaos, violence, and anarchy would prevail.

    Still, despite the futility of seeking real political reform, until economic collapse arrives, I will continue the idealistic effort to try to wake others up. I value myself, my family, and future, and our country. But I will try to make increasing efforts to prepare for the worst.

  26. Same thing happened on the Bataan death March.The Japanese guards hated the American and Filipino soldiers for surrendering.The Japs saw them as cowards and treated them accordingly.
    I don’t know for sure what I will do until the time comes but I will be very reluctant to let myself be rounded up and sent to a camp.I think I could take my M1a and stop a small army for a little while.
    That’s about the only plan I have for now.

  27. Remember who the enemy is. Those who take from producers to give to themselves and their friends. Above all else be armed , the police will be protecting themselves and their bosses.

    A man like Stuck would be a good choice for a leader during this time.

  28. I think the revolt is underway – and Americans are quietly resisting Big Government’s dictates.

    We may not have a now or never moment – it may be an incremental resistance movement – where people ignore the unjust laws and refuse to obey. They call it Irish Democracy. The idea makes my heart sing.

    Once people begin to say, “No” en masse, the revolt begins. It’s actually “game on” now.

    How many people have dropped out of the system – refusing to take crappy jobs? They are working off the books, keeping the dough out of Uncle Sam’s grubby hands. They refuse to comply.

    And, Obamacare is a total, complete flop. Why? Because Americans REFUSE to sign up for crappy, expensive healthcare. This monstrosity has been repealed – by the American people. We simply are not going to comply. And the Docs are revolting too. No patients, no docs – yeah, Obamacare will work out real well whenever it is implemented.

    Take a look at the number of people arming themselves. Make no mistake. Gun sales are not through the roof +31% since Obama’s coronation because hunting is a huge trend. Millions of Americans are arming themselves – getting ready to defend their families and private property when the time comes – against whoever comes to bang down their door.

    Our dentist, pharmacist, electrician, plumber have all gone Gault. These are the people who do the work in this country – they are refusing to comply in ways large and small everyday.

    As more of us get used to resisting – we will become braver when the big moment comes.

    In the meantime, I am thrilled that Irish Democracy is taking hold in the USA.


  29. “A hard decision would be to flee your home, your town, and all you have known, with young children in tow, to escape.” ————— Realestatepup

    Not hard at all. My parents did just that. And, I have done it. One must just determine that the “things” we love, are just that …. “things” …. and ultimately have no lasting value anyway.

    “None of us, NONE can say what our reaction will be when faced with this choice.” — Realestatepup

    Again, I must strongly disagree. How do you know? You can only speak for yourself. For example, Thinker said — “They were most often starved — some to the point of cannibalizing their own children.” Jeezus, some people value this life waaay to much! If it ever came to the point where the (supposedly) only choice I had was to eat one of my two sons …… I sure as fuck WOULD NOT do it. There is ZERO doubt in my mind about that. There are other choices; a bullet to my head, for one. And, trust me pal, I wouldn’t even have to think about it.

    Well, that’s an extreme example. I’ll give you a lessor one. If it gets to the point where some State Goon is ordering me around at the point of a gun …. I do NOT llike being bossed around … well, someone IS going to die. Either me or him. I don’t much give a fuck who one way or another. Some people value life way to much. I’m not one of them. There are more than just a few instances where death is preferable over life.

    Lastly, let me give you the example of thousands upon thousands of martyrs. Christian, Joo, Mooslim, I don’t care. We’re talking about people who DON’T THINK TWICE about dying for their faith. Making the “hard choice” is something you apparently struggle with. But it’s not for many, many others. And that’s a fact.

  30. Admin is spot on. I worked overseas for the USG for more than two decades and work overseas now, communting to the U.S. It is ridiculously clear to me that we are on a runaway train headed for a bridge that has been out for years. In the near future every American is going to find out what he is made of, the sheep will be separated from the goats – and the goats will be angry. There will be no tolerance for “nice, rational” people who just want to get along with everybody. You will take a stand with your own tribe or you will be cast out. It will indeed be war to the knife and the knife to the hilt, like it or not. Financial war, social war, political war and just plain old war. One more thing to our readers. Please stop using Nazi Germany as the bugbear to describe what is happening to our country. As bad as the Nazis were for Jews, homosexuals, Commuists and a few other groups (and they were bad) for most middle class Americans the proper boogeyman is the former Soviet Union. Few middle class, white Americans would have been seriously persecuted by a Nazi regime. All of us would have been shot or worked to death in the Gulag under the Soviet regime. The people who control this country now are either the soulless bankers or the crypto-Reds around Obama, together with all of their allies, the usual suspects. White middle and working class Americans, as well as the upper middle professional classes, are the target of these animals. Stop deluding yourselves and prepare.

  31. “Please stop using Nazi Germany as the bugbear to describe what is happening to our country.”
    ———— Southern Sage

    First, very nice and spot-on post.

    Regarding your desire to have a “Nazi-free” discussion? bwaaahahaha! Impossible!

    This site, like every other site, MUST follow Godwin’s Law!

  32. @Southern Sage: Jawohl. No, seriously, if you’re reading TBP you would be a Kulak or worse, and would be on the list for extermination in the early USSR. But in Nazi Germany you would basically be OK if you kept your mouth shut, and might have the option to expatriate voluntarily as things darkened. Yes, 100% agree that this is much more like the communist takeover in Russia.

  33. SSS Law ——- as the length of the internet discussion increases, the likelihood of seeing Selma’s tits approaches 1.

    1. The last page of the Fourth Turning – Ecclesiastes 3: 1-8

      There is a time for everything,
      and a season for every activity under the heavens:

      a time to be born and a time to die,
      a time to plant and a time to uproot,

      a time to kill and a time to heal,
      a time to tear down and a time to build,

      a time to weep and a time to laugh,
      a time to mourn and a time to dance,

      a time to scatter stones and a time to gather them,
      a time to embrace and a time to refrain from embracing,

      a time to search and a time to give up,
      a time to keep and a time to throw away,

      a time to tear and a time to mend,
      a time to be silent and a time to speak,

      a time to love and a time to hate,
      a time for war and a time for peace.

  34. 9
    a time to impeach and a time to try for treason
    a time for prison and a time to finally get all the gay sex he wants

  35. @southernsage, yeah my bad – hitler and the nazis were just misunderstood……but them fucking russians – thats another story. This was a joke and should be considered funny. Southern, good point – good call.

  36. Jim, if you weren’t on somebody’s hit list before, you certainly will be now. I appreciate your candor and your guts.

    This post makes me think about going somewhere far from civilization. There are a few such places left, and I’m actively trying to evaluate the eventual possibility of bugging out to one of them. I never thought I’d say that, and it still isn’t likely…but maybe, just maybe.

  37. “Wild, dark times are rumbling toward us, and the prophet who wishes to write a new apocalypse will have to invent entirely new beasts, and beasts so terrible that the ancient animal symbols of St. John will seem like cooing doves and cupids in comparison…Where they burn books, they will end by burning human beings.”

    Heinrich Heine

  38. thanks admin for another great article. i sheepishly admit i haven’t read “the fourth turning” yet even though i bought it a year ago. this is because i am just getting to the books i bought two years ago. i should pick it up by the end of the summer.

    for the red-blooded animals on this site, especially in light of southern sage’s excellent comment, put “witness” by whittaker chambers on your list. i am reading it now and can’t put it down. outstanding.

  39. At least pot will be legal. Much easier for the interpol (international police) that come here under the auspices of relief efforts to round us up to our local FEMA camps. My suggestion, learn how to say, “China Good” in Mandarin.

  40. Jim, Thanks again for my daily dose of doom, gloom, and reality. Found your blog in 09′, don’t remember exactly when but it is a daily read.

    Now let me get back to something a little more cheerier, just started reading Auschwitz: A New History.

  41. Greetings,

    I hate to chime in so late but I’ll throw my pessimistic .02 in as well.

    First off, most of this is NOT going to happen. This is what WILL happen.

    1. At some point in time, the dollar’s actual value will be revealed to everyone.

    2. When it becomes apparent that no obligations are going to be honored, the people will probably choose to vent their frustrations.

    3. The people will be venting their frustrations not in some open field but right in the heart of our critical infrastructure. Infrastructure, I should remind you, that is NOT designed to withstand urban warfare and rioting.

    4. With the grid down, a countdown begins whereas people either die of thirst, disease or exposure. The great die-off isn’t going to take years or even months but will occur within a matter of a few weeks. After all, we’ve poisoned most of our potable water sources.

    I know everyone thinks they are going to just run away and hide in the woods but if you can’t run away and support yourself in the woods at this very moment then you are not going to be any more capable of it when someone will shoot you dead for an apple.

  42. What I find interesting about this book is the fact that if you understand generational paradigms, as our masters most likely do, then you’d be able to control the outcome of the fourth turning by controlling the beliefs and attitudes of the previous three generations. For example, the hero generation will probably being fighting for the goals of the elites, e.g. fascism disguised as the green movement, a one world currency disguised as a crypto-currency, a one world government promising peace and prosperity, an anti-Christ disguised as a savior. I can hear the horseman now: a day’s wages for a bushel of wheat.

  43. the Salma Hayek effect: temporary amnesia, similar to watching an Adam Sandler movie and forgetting what you watched as you exit the movie theater.

  44. o A president outs top military commanders en masse – check
    o A president wants to cut military strength to pre-WWII levels – check
    o A president outfits a “homeland” army with billions of hollow-point ammunition and MRAPs – check
    o Foreign troops are “trained” on American soil – check

    etc., etc….

    Hopefully in the bowels of the Pentagon there are whispers passed among patriots!


  45. Southern Sage says:

    “In the near future every American is going to find out what he is made of, the sheep will be separated from the goats – and the goats will be angry. There will be no tolerance for “nice, rational” people who just want to get along with everybody. You will take a stand with your own tribe or you will be cast out. It will indeed be war to the knife and the knife to the hilt, like it or not.”

    That is the reality that Billy describes as evidenced by prison rules, yep, a nice guy like me will be forced to join the gangbangers of die. Not a pleasant choice but Frankl said it wasn’t the best of the Jews that survived the concentration camps. Nice knowing you, stab you later, no hard feelings.

  46. The gestation period is rapidly coming to an end. The willingness of the clowns in command to play extend and pretend is unending, but it now has run smack into the physical limitations of reality imposed by this universe. Product sizes have shrunk to the point where any more and there will be no product. Auto loans are longer than the life of a vehicle. They can’t come up with any more fancy words for money printing or operations named after Chubby Checker songs. There are not going to be SNAP or EBT cards for the crushing burden of expensive but worthless health insurance. Meddling with the minimum wage and overtime pay will only result in layoffs, rising prices, shoddy service, and product unavailability.

    The American zombies, especially the millenials, will be unable to think and reason their way out of the decline. When they can no longer afford their precious cable television and smartphone, they will latch on to the first false savior that comes along to channel their rage into forging more chains for themselves. If you doubt this and are hoping for the so-called grey champion, just read some Youtube comments or visit your local Walmart.

  47. Side note–> Caught Rand Paul on Glenn Beck this am, Damn I like what he’s saying.

    hardscrabble farmer says:

    “The worst places to be will be… a region that has a harsh winter.”

    “Sometimes the worst place to be is the best place to be.” -My Batallion Commander, circa 1980

    “Only the flexible survive” -Personal Motto

    Hardscrabble’s so very correct. I am in a great southern location, rural, unbelievable amount of water, mild climate, and a for a short time there’s plenty of game to hunt. That being said, I have extreme winter gear (eg mouse boots). If I feel the need to move I”ll head for the Rockies. Why? Like AWD I grew up in Colorado and spent many a day hiking in the high country, camped out in the winter as well. I”ll take my four horses and get so deep in those mountains no one would find me. Remember the movie Red Dawn? The Harsher the environment you can survive in……the greater your chances of survival are. The key is……you want to be as far away from large population centers as you can. Dallas is Six hours south and that’s a huge concern for me. All those Zombies are within one tank of gas of reaching me.

    Sensetti’s tip of the day—–> the very best extreme cold weather boots. About 140 dollars worth every penny. Some people call them Mouse Boots others call them Bunny Boots. Grab a pair and put them in your prep stockpile. Frostbite of the feet is a death sentence in a survival situation.


  48. Rand Paul is a dangerous waffling idiot wannabe…not a chip off the old block, IMO..

    It is our role as a global leader to be the strongest nation in opposing Russia’s latest aggression. Putin must be punished for violating the Budapest Memorandum, and Russia must learn that the U.S. will isolate it if it insists on acting like a rogue nation. Randy Paul

  49. Jim:

    One week after the Great Reset, the police and soldiers all leave their posts to go protect their families.

    The fourth turning is not The People vs. Big Brother. It’s K-selected vs. r-selected.

  50. My wife told me this one :

    A man’s girlfriend breaks up with him and he just can’t let the relationship go.
    So he goes to see the Buddha and gives a long detailed discussion of his problem.
    Buddha sits for a minute thinking, then he hands the man a teacup
    and starts pouring tea into the cup. Even after the cup is full, Buddha
    keeps pouring and the hot tea spills onto the man’s hand, burning
    him – the man jerks his hand away and drops the cup, smashing it on the floor.

    Buddha says to him, “When it hurts enough, then you’ll let go.”

    All of us old men, bloviating here on the internet about how bad things are, we’re like the man above – waiting for things to get bad enough to finally break the ties that bind us to the lives, the habits, the preconceptions we have forever surrounded ourselves with.

    S&H :

    “Don’t think you can escape the Fourth Turning the way you might today distance yourself from news, national politics, or even taxes you don’t feel like paying. History warns that a Crisis will reshape the basic social and economic environment that you now take for granted. The Fourth Turning necessitates the death and rebirth of the social order. It is the ultimate rite of passage for an entire people, requiring a luminal state of sheer chaos whose nature and duration no one can predict in advance. The risk of catastrophe will be very high. The nation could erupt into insurrection or civil violence, crack up geographically, or succumb to authoritarian rule. If there is a war, it is likely to be one of maximum risk and effort – in other words, a total war. Every Fourth Turning has registered an upward ratchet in the technology of destruction, and in mankind’s willingness to use it.”


    After reading about millenia of such historical events, I personally have come to the conclusion that the best way to survive a Crisis, is not to be there when it happens – and that does not necessarily mean leaving your country, altho that works fairly well some of the time. Think of the Jews who survived by hiding in the forests.

    You can do this (with a little luck).

    But the key word there is ‘DO’ (not just talk).

    I do not believe in a fate that falls on men however they act – but I do believe in a fate that falls on them unless they act.
    – G. K. Chesterton

    Grown men do not need leaders.
    – Edward Abbey

  51. Pick your poison Flash. Because none of the above is not an option. Who do you want to see elected? Do they or would they have a snowballs chance in Hell of getting elected. That’s what Rand was saying this am the way the Two major parties have the debates structured a third party candidate has zero chance of getting elected. He stated his goal is to change the GOP and maintain the Constitution. I take a chance on that rather than this fucking liberal bullshit we are being force fed.


      Edward Snowden is no hero: Bill Gates

      Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates criticised NSA whistleblower Edward Snowden in an interview published Thursday, saying that his leaking of confidential documents had gone too far.

      “I think he broke the law, so I certainly wouldn’t characterise him as a hero,” Gates said in Rolling Stone magazine.

      “You won’t find much admiration from me,” Gates said, adding he thinks there should be some Government surveillance powers on the internet, and that Snowden’s actions had compromised those capabilities.

      “The debate needs to be about the general notion of under what circumstances should they be allowed to do things,” he said. “The people who say that sometimes having this information is valuable — they’re not being very articulate right now.”

  52. “The actions of individuals will matter during this Fourth Turning. The majority are trapped in their propaganda induced, techno distracted stupor of willful ignorance. It will take a minority of liberty minded individuals, who honor the principles of the U.S. Constitution and are willing to sacrifice their lives, to prevail in the coming struggle.” – Admin

    Could this effort be a spark?:
    (Beginning Of Tyranny Housecleaning)

    Could the organizer, Col. Harry Riley, Ret., be the “grey champion”? From the weblink:

    “Will our national patriot leaders step forward and declare, “send me”, I’ll lead? There are millions of veterans and patriots ready to follow and have said “I will go”.

    I urge all organizations, groups, particularly veterans and military retirees begin planning to visit Washington, D.C beginning May 16, 2014. Keep tuned to Constitutional Emergency/Patriots for America for updates and guidance.

    Please bathe this effort in prayer as there is no personal agenda or gain save liberty, freedom, and restoration of constitutional government for “we the people”.

    Harry Riley, COL, USA, Ret”

    Col. Riley, in the webpage, assumes millions of participants to show up. Should they get anywhere near that number, can we expect some “incident” to happen that will bring an iron fist response? (or will the iron fist strike first?).

    Here’s Col. Riley speaking about his “operation” on John B Wells’ “Caravan to Midnight”:

  53. @ sensetti: I am in a great southern location, rural, unbelievable amount of water, mild climate, and a for a short time there’s plenty of game to hunt . . . Dallas is Six hours south and that’s a huge concern for me. All those Zombies are within one tank of gas of reaching me.

    Six hours north of Dallas would put you in or near Wichita, KS. Not exactly “southern.” Nor are the winters in those parts “mild,” as I can attest from two years living in Omaha. In fact, the Metroplex itself can get mighty cold, as I can attest from seven years living there.

    At any rate, when the SHTF the zombies will be fleeing the big cities in all directions. So expect just ~25% of them to head north. And since zombies are not known for their forward thinking, few will have a full tank of gas.

  54. The Walking Dead is an accurate portrayal of how the brain dead American zombies will act after the SHTF.


  55. Is this Dave the same as Dave L? Holy Shit Dave, technically it’s Northeast a State called Arkansas. It’s kinda Southern, we fly Rebel Battle Flags and are home to the KKK.

  56. Old Muck has the opinion that this post/thread has generated more wisdom (varying plus or minus the mean) than any other TBP article has generated in a long, long time. It is wonderful!

    I’ve always held that I have learned more from the content threads than from the post itself. Admin has succeeded in making it break even.

    There is so much wisdom in this thread that you’ll have to read it two-three times to really understand the depth of understanding presented by the comments. It is WONDERFUL!

    Wisdom is simply a package of various information on a subject presented in a way that the individuals can read, learn and make their own choice. Rarely will everyone agree. Who cares? Truth is a compilation of various degrees of fact and wishful thinking. This thread is gets a GOLD METAL for bringing out the true feelings and perceived knowledge of a lot of TBP’ers..

    That’s the real value of TBP! The more the merrier. The more diversified the posting of comments, the more benefit to those who truly think about sorting the wheat from the chaff.

    TBP contributors are 90% gold plated – well maybe 80%. Some are bent a bit, exploring the regions of reason outside what I might considered generally appropriate.. So what? Who cares? They also demonstrate where more logic and truth need to be applied to teach those of the mainstream ingesting the pablum forced fed knowledge, where truth really lies.

    There is no other blog that can fill The Burning Platform’s shoes as to broad coverage of the big picture and, simply, the truth. TBP has a feeling about it that no other blog has managed to developed such a broad, satisfying and open forum – leaving Admin in the unfortunate position of being on top where everyone else shoots at him.


  57. I believe there is a Black Swan showing itself that will complicate the future in even more dramatic and unpredictable ways than those presented in the Fourth Turning. It is what Dmitry Orlov calls the The Sixth Stage of Collapse

    I am referencing the work of Guy McPherson. McPherson’s theme is that status quo is suppressing the overall climate picture. No one likes bad news, especially as it relates to climate which discourages introverted and conservative scientists from publishing connect-the-dot type papers. Being outside controlling institutions, McPherson makes his case through a list of peer-reviewed publications from well-respected journals.

    1. Conservative estimates in the scientific community state that we, as a species and most mammals, cannot survive above wet-bulb temperatures of 95°F (a 4-6°C increase over historical baseline temperatures). All observations and climate models indicate we will get there at current rate of green-house gas emissions.

    2. Over the last two decades, each new climate model has shorten the length of time to the 4°C or greater transition point. Estimates started from 2100 -> 2050 -> 2035 -> 2025.
    Each new set of observations and model estimates shorten the interval to the wet-bulb-95°F extinction point, but none of these estimates include newly observed tens of feed-back loops that have quickly arisen in the last four years. Here are a few of the currently identified 30 or so positive-feed-back loops.
    I. Warm North Atlantic ocean currents going directly into the Arctic due to a lack of cold water to turn currents back to the south.
    II. Warming Arctic seas melting methane hydrates and subsequently releasing methane.
    III. Expansion of vast eastern Siberian methane vents as a result of defrosting tundra.
    IV. Warming boreal forest peat carbon release and Amazon basin drought-based carbon release. For example, it is estimated that Amazon carbon release exceeds all of the USA emissions on a year-to-year basis.
    Again, these are results from technical articles and each of these feed-back loops lead to more warming and subsequently more methane/carbon release. (For more examples see: Climate change summary and update

    3. Fossil and ice-core evidence indicates that historical climatology consists of long (million and thousand year) periods of consistent weather combined with punctuated changes that may occur within a decade. In other words, our weather system is susceptible to unpredictable, abrupt, non-linear, changes that can switch into alternate pattern(s) lasting for thousand/million years.

    4. Climate effects lag as much as 40 years behind recorded CO2 levels, so we are seeing the effects from the 1970s; since then, we have pumped into the atmosphere the equivalent of 236 years of pre-1970s CO2, and this is not counting the positive-feed-back loops which are dumping massive amounts of methane and carbon (see details in the article and video). Methane of course is a green-house gas with 10-100 times the influence of carbon and there is a lot more sequestered methane than carbon.

    5. At the present, oceans have been absorbing most of the excess heat leaving land masses relatively stable. So, it is not about warm or cold air masses as much as it is about weather instability. Farmers complain they cannot predict when to plant, so it is not unrealistic to assume significant crop failures within the decade due to climate variability, maybe within the next five years. The California drought, for example, will have a significant effect on produce prices.

    6. It is beyond our power to reverse these newly discovered positive feed-back loops. Thus, we have 10-20 years before life as we know it will be extinct.

    7. For those who look, climatologist Paul Beckwith says we have entered a new climate, one of abrupt changes and extreme weather events.
    Our extreme weather and climate future:
    Explanation of Northern Hemisphere Jet Stream Dynamics:
    Explanation of Southern Hemisphere Jet Stream Dynamics:

    Guy McPherson – Presenting in Olympia, Washington, Mar 4, 2014
    Guy McPherson – Picking Cherries, Jan 30, 2014

  58. Pingback: RedTrack.ME
  59. “That is the reality that Billy describes as evidenced by prison rules, yep, a nice guy like me will be forced to join the gangbangers of die. Not a pleasant choice but Frankl said it wasn’t the best of the Jews that survived the concentration camps. Nice knowing you, stab you later, no hard feelings.” — El Gordo

    I don’t make the rules.

    I don’t even LIKE the rules.

    But the shit that’s coming down? People WILL tribe up. Oh sure, you’ll have some crossover somewhere, I’m sure.

    But then someone, somewhere, will get wind of some alleged atrocity committed by someone or attributed to a group of someone’s and then it will be Game On and there will be little to stop it or check its progress.

    Payback for every hurt, real or imagined will escalate into a game of tit-for-tat, only with escalating violence… you beat one of ours, we kill one of yours. You shoot up one of our houses, we burn down half a dozen of yours.. and on and on…

    Precisely why I moved where I did, when I did. I didn’t even know what the hell a 4th Turning was… all’s I knew was that there was war in the air… you could smell it coming. And I did not want to be anywhere near a major city when it went down… just us living quiet, piling up our preps, keeping our guns clean and waiting….

  60. Damn, that is some heavy shit, Admin. Great piece.

    I envision an end to the current era of globalization, at least the reliance on it that we have now. Global trade ground to a halt back in 2008 when the banking system was frozen, though the powers that be were fire hosing money and making broad based guarantees for all the big banks. When the banking systems in any number of the G8 or maybe even the G20 implode they will all topple quickly. Boats would leave a port on one side of the world and arrive to find hot mess on the other with nothing much better to go back to.

    A large part of this cycle has involved globalization, particularly the latter half when we really started importing oil and exporting democracy, which enabled us to export jobs and import cheap shit. The end of cheap oil will help that along, the true cost of energy has been hidden by the obscene levels of debt / credit and will rear it ugly head soon enough. It will consume our military budget to continue to act as the world’s policeman, just in fuel costs, we won’t be able to afford the interventionist policies that keep us at the top.

    I’m not really worried about foreign invasion, so much of the world is riding the same cycle at the same time since WWII, globalization has helped to maintain that effect. This will be an inward facing crisis, not just here but all over the world, many first world nations will not have the luxury of lashing out when their cities are burning and citizens are fighting each other over rancid hot dogs. Our country will contract and pull back from its global standing, leading to the great internal struggle that so many of us can feel is coming.

    The next turning might be one of peace simply because everyone is too busy putting their own houses in order, the whole world may hold off on the power vacuum thing until the end of the next high.

  61. Absolutely love it! I am a big fan of the Fourth Turning. Your article captures the state we are in brilliantly and the quotes from FT support it very well.

    Keep up the good work!


  62. This is one of the first pictures I posted on TBP. It bears repeating.

    When the seat belt sign illuminates, you must fasten your seat belt… oxygen mask will automatically appear in front of you.

    There are several emergency exits. Please take a few seconds to familiarize yourself with the nearest exit. Leave all your luggage behind and move as quick as possible to the nearest exit. Jump onto the escape slide…….and Oh yeah…..Good Luck!



      Beautiful essay, James. I do not question the philosophy of Strauss/Howe, and your amplification of it. I agree with it implicitly. My cycles are slightly different. I make them more exact: 72 years.

      1821 – 1839
      1839- 1857

      Look above at each of the ‘first seasons’: 1857-1875: American civil war; 1929:1947 (American) world war; 2001-2019…

      72 years has four turnings of 18 years, or what is very close to a generational mechanism. In my view, we began what is similar to S/H Fourth Turning in 2001. My view is that cycles are based in Nature, in God’s thought (God’s geometrizing), to paraphrase Plato…

      There are larger cycles at work also, including the cycle that brought Jesus Christ to the Earth 2000 years ago, to regenerate a spiritual world view and to sink the Roman materialistic, empirical world view — American is now playing the Roman role, as the empire the New Christ will begin to sink slowly to the bottom of the ocean.

      There is clearly and will continue to be a lining up of religious warriors (Islam first, then Christian, and others….) which is certainly more important than the smaller cycles of those furiously attempting to redraw the communist-capitalist duality again, which is reactionary and limp compared to true forces of historical change coming.

      The entire world is resurrecting the fascist, military image of the 1930’s (not just Mr. Abbe and/or Mr. Putin). The ‘Arab Spring’ is telling in its vocabulary. Islam is rising (dawn), and Christianity is setting (dusk). It is a hollow version of Christianity, indeed, having been corrupted by power and wealth and pleasure and drugs. Islam will rise into wealth and civilization; and the West will fall into the Dark Age, causing it to turn inward, embracing poverty and monasticism — and of course there will be plagues and famines. Hard not to see this coming.

      Austerity is coming to the West, not a few years of austerity, but many lifetimes. Civilization fills a void; and by filling a void, it creates the next void. Nature abhors a vacuum, but only after a very long time.

  63. I understand Michael’s attempt, but he’s just flat-out wrong about a 2001 start to this Crisis. So many people try to force-fit the turning to include 9/11 but the fact is, the societal / attitudinal changes that come with a Crisis simply did not occur. The reaction to 9/11 included flying flags on cars, doing our “patriotic duty” by shopping, buying cars and homes on credit like never before. The housing bubble is a prime example of something that would NEVER happen in a Crisis era.

    All the consumer surveys I did throughout 2001 – 2006 continued to show Unraveling-era mindsets, particularly through the housing bubble and even in reactions to Katrina. And I can’t discount that Iraq / Afghanistan fit the model for 3T wars — especially with public reactions to them. These just are not the markings of a 4T.

    Since 2008, though, the sentiment changed. We rose up against TARP far more than we reacted to the Patriot Act. Look at the public outcry against Syria and even Crimea. Look at how consumer spending has tanked, even among those whose income hasn’t changed. THOSE are 4T-era mindsets.

    I had an interesting conversation with a guy who also used to work with S&H about this. He was still trying to decide if we had a 2001 start until I showed him some of my data. He said something I found really thought-provoking: that the “implication of a 2001 start is that we would end up in a cycle much like the Civil War, because there would not be a clear resolution to the climax. So although 2008 means many more years of crisis, at least there will be a clear conclusion.”

    The idea is that, if we hit the Crisis too early, before the Grey Champions arrive and before the Heroes are ready, we will replicate the 4T of the Civil War. The result is chaos and an inconclusive battle of ideologies that doesn’t give a decisive winner.

    He felt that, In the case of the Civil War, we ended up with no Hero generation because of the prematurity of that turning. I disagree; I think we had Heroes in that turning, but most were killed off during the war so never went on to do the things Hero gens do post-war (like the GIs after WWII).

    Only time will tell, but I’m hoping that we DO have a conclusive end to this Crisis and that it resolves the issues that got us here. We may not see as prosperous a High / 1T as last time around, but that would be okay, too, particularly if the resolution is about returning sustainability to our systems. Who knows if the U.S. will even exist when we’re done with this one… we may be broken up into new, self-governing region-states or taken over by a foreign power. It’s just too soon to know.

  64. There are Fourth Turning adherents who don’t even realize they are Fourth Turning adherents: witness Peggy Noonan’s latest WSJ opinion in which she states,

    “There’s a sense that in some new way we are watching the 21st century take its shape and express its central realities. Exactly 100 years ago, in August 1914, the facts that would shape the 20th century gathered and emerged in the Great War. History doesn’t repeat itself; you can’t, as they say, step into the same stream twice. But it does have an unseen circularity.”

    The circularity WAS seen, and docmented by S & H.

  65. I think that Mark Twain said it best, ‘History doesn’t repeat itself, but it does rhyme.’

    I believe that S&H codified it with their analysis of history against the generations. We do get to discuss the specific elements tied to our Turning and the start year of course…

  66. I remember that the last recorded dream of psychologist Carl Jung a day before his death was that in fifty years vast parts of the earth would be destroyed but fortunately not everything. He died in 1963. It is just a few months past fifty years since he died.

  67. Arius

    Jung died in 1961.

    “On May 30, 1961, eight days before he died, Jung dictated to his daughter his last visions, with instructions that the notes were to be given to Marie-Louise von Franz. The images were sobering: “I see enormous stretches devastated, enormous stretches of the earth. But thank God, not the whole planet.” And Jung made a drawing, with a caption under it that said, “The last 50 years of humanity.”’s-prophetic-visions-and-alchemy-our-time#_ftnref

  68. “A United States surveillance drone has been intercepted above the Ukranian region of Crimea, a Russian state arms and technology group said Friday. “The drone was flying at about 4,000 metres (12,000 feet) and was virtually invisible from the ground. It was possible to break the link with US operators with complex radio-electronic technology,” said Rostec in a statement. The drone fell “almost intact into the hands of self-defense forces” added Rostec, which said it had manufactured the equipment used to down the aircraft, but did not specify who was operating it. “Judging by its identification number, UAV MQ-5B belonged to the 66th American Reconnaissance Brigade, based in Bavaria,” Rostec said on its website, which also carried a picture of what it said was the captured drone. The photograph appeared to show an apparently armed drone in flight, rather than debris. The Crimean port of Sevastopol is home to Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, which is believed to be equipped with detection equipment. Crimea, where pro-Kremlin forces have control, is to hold a referendum on Sunday on the peninsula joining Russia, in what Moscow says is a fair expression of self identity but the West views as an illegal annexation of sovereign territory.” –Yahoo News

  69. “History doesn’t repeat itself; you can’t, as they say, step into the same stream twice.”

    Of course it does and yes you can.

  70. hardscrabble farmer says:

    “History doesn’t repeat itself; you can’t, as they say, step into the same stream twice.”

    Of course it does and yes you can.”

    mmm….technically not so much.

    The Doctrine of Flux:

    “This is the view that everything is constantly altering; no object retains all of its component parts, or all of its qualities or characteristics, from one moment to the next.”

    History has Heraclitus to thank for that viewpoint according to Plato..maybe. Apparently it has not been confirmed. Anyhoo…

    Plato may have misinterpreted Heraclitus’s position as a Fluxist by assuming Heraclitus was saying there were NO persisting objects. i.e. a static object. In other words, there is the argument that even as a Fluxist, it doesn’t necessarily follow that persisting objects are denied.

    So if rocks, being in the static state of….well, being a rock, goes through the process of having the edges smoothed by the flowing water and the compositions in the water e.g. sand, pebbles; then the rocks continue in their static state of ‘rockism’ (I made that up), even though they undergo constant change. Process, e.g. “change”, has no enemies….because it would simply be futile, irrelevant, and pointless. Change rules the day, everyday. The only thing that does not change…. is “change” Itself.

    Each time one steps into the ‘same’ stream, they are technically, in every sense of the word, stepping into a different stream. It may be the same stream in regards to its position, but certainly not in regards to its composition.

    History technically does not repeat itself. It is filled with echoes, memories, and reminders for lessons learned and not learned by Homo sapiens. I think these elements are meant to assist humans in understanding the cyclical, e.g. Fourth Turnings, nature inherent in the Human condition, collectively and individually.

    It seems to me that history is more analogous than repetitious. Repetition does not allow for the uniqueness of an historical event.

  71. Stucky:
    It’s nice to know there are some people out there who have a firm set in their minds of what they will nor will not do, settle for, or become.
    I think you maybe misunderstand me in some ways.
    I too have known people who have fled their home countries due to persecution. I have known people from the former Yugoslavia who came here before everything crapped out but their parents decided to stay behind because they didn’t think it would ever get “that bad”. It did. They were shot in their home so soldiers could steal the produce and animals from their farm.
    It is human nature (and I am simply generalizing here) that people want to stay in their comfort zone of who they know, where they know, and what they know. And yes, some people simply cannot leave “things” behind.
    A hard decision would be to know when is the right time to leave (if ever) or to stay and fight (might or might not come down to that). Some people are not capable of fighting to the death or even to grievous bodily harm. Then there are those that are just too old, or physically incapable.
    I do not have any young children. My parents do not live around here and are not feeble. For me, mobility is easier. But would I leave, or stay behind to help others? The reason I cannot answer that question is because I have no idea what the situation would be. I certainly also would not want to be in a camp. But what if someone like you, with the potential to lead, and motivate, and stand, actually did go to a camp and were responsible for freeing everyone? Or most of everyone?
    That’s what I mean. We can’t know what we will do because we don’t know what the exact situation will be at that time.
    The best we can do now is know ourselves, what we are capable of, and how we are best used and suited to certain situations.

  72. Why not address the real issues for the West?


    Why are people so anti-white??

    Racism is only racism when it is the people of the country trying to defend their ethnic interests, not when their anti-white ‘leaders’ defend theirs.

    At what point would anti-whites allow whites such as this the right to protect their ethnic interests, to not be displaced in their country and have their society destroyed– all just so they can look good for the camera. Moral grandstanding and PC prudery aside, one would not dare argue for the converse–that would be called Genocide.

    Anti-whites expect an entire race to disappear from the face of the earth without even mentioning, not even whispering about it.

    Nobody’s flooding Africa with Non-Africans and giving them free health care, affirmative action and special privileges.

    Only White Countries are doing it, only White children are affected, and only White politicians are allowing it.

    Anti-racist is a code word for anti-white.

  73. Great comments Folks.

    Some of us has taken that step into the future for our country.

    Please consider becoming a Common Law Grand Jury member in your county.

    This is what it’s about. Please take the time to at least watch these videos and at least consider supporting us in spirit or materially. This is your chance. The country needs you NOW.

    To truly understand attend our live weekly call, get in the que and ask away.

    Our Meetup – All are welcome.



    New York 2-27-14
    Florida 3-15-14
    Connecticut 3-15-14
    Rhode Island 3-15-14

    We have active members in every state.

    We WILL Constitute Common Law Grand Juries in all 3142 counties.

    Join us!

    Scout out.

  74. My virus software is saying there is a Exploit:Java/Majava.E virus attacking me here, just thought I’d let you know. Is Big Brother trying to scare away readers again?

    Good read, thx and God Bless.

  75. Get over it! America has always had a strong Fascist tendency. The upper classes of the USA loved Mussolini and Hitler. I know it from my own family. These same elements are alive and thriving today. The existing democracy paradigm is simply a cover, veneer, or user interface for fascism. Americans are pretty much stupid.


    Pat Buchanan nails one of the major ‘tail risks’ we face in this 4T: Boomer Presidents failing to act as their Greatest Generation predecessors did to end the Cold War without firing a shot. Can anyone imagine the current or any likely future President doing a Nixon-to-China move? We’re much more likely to stumble into a military disaster, or at least another quagmire, with a Prophet from in command. War guarantees extended to nations on all across the Eurasian landmass are a recipe for another ‘ land war in [Eur]Asia’ that we won’t win.

    Another risk is what Boomer Prof alludes to: Non-linear ‘black swan’ events. Remember Immanuel Velikovsky? He may not have been right on anything (I am not qualified to judge), but he did have one idea that applies: Catastrophism. How else but via sudden catastrophe do you get Arctic islands filled with big mammal bones? How else do you explain fresh-frozen mastodons who did not have time to decompose, weren’t touched by scavengers, and appears to have been in good health, some with food in their mouths, entombed in ice in a region that can barely support a fox or a lemming, let alone a multi-ton eating machine that travels in herds?

    Final thought: Non-violent resistance worked in India, South Africa and helped win civil rights in our own country for those who were being denied them. This tactic, along with the creation of vigorous communities (virtual and physical) that practice self-help and nurture civic virtue are what I see as the best way to help bring into being ‘a new birth of freedom’ in our homeland.

  77. The Fourth Turning if very similar the the Kondratiev long wave that I write about at my site Apparently, capitalism goes through a 50 to 80 year: spring (inflation)>summer (stagflation)>fall (disinflation>and winter (deflation/depression).
    The big question – is this like Rome with a New Dark Ages to follow? I think it will cycle up again and in that wave gold will go ballistic.

    The real sad thing for humanity is that just as technology advances are discovered the system
    tops and then crashes in wave four and there is little money willing and able to fund those advances.

  78. What is the difference between the belief that aliens have visited Earth, and the belief that Jesus was the son of God?

    They’re both irrational fantasies with absolute no basis in fact.

    Irrationality is irrationality, whether it is “conventional” and “traditional”, or it’s new and “progressive”.

  79. 2001 is Noon in my calendar. This means the most recent high-point of civilization and evolution. From here the Shadow begins to grow, until 2019, when the shadow is all-powerful.

    18 years of expansion followed by 18 years of deflation.
    1911-1929 expansion
    1929-1947 deflation
    1947-1965 expansion
    1965-1983 deflation
    1983-2001 expansion
    2001-2019 deflation…one can take this back through American history back to the 1700’s and find a perfect fit.

    In my understanding, economics is a secondary effect. Spiritual expansion followed by spiritual deflation. Spiritual expansion is egoic; spiritual deflation is about the death of the ego.

    2001 should be understood as a kind of Tower of Babel experience, at which time God curses Man for his Pride (and unity) and confuses the many languages of the world, as unity (relative) dissipates into diversity and decentralization (entropy). This is the opposite of the Pentecost experience, at which time God covenants with man and all foreign languages become recognizable to everyone, which signals expansion, growth, evolution of form, and anti-entropy, or energy mutating into higher and higher forms of organization. Pentecost is a White Hole experience; Tower of Babel is a Black Hole experience.

  80. chicago999444, I pity your poor wretched emaciated soul. No one on this earth loves you yet you reject the blood of Jesus, the one who loves you so much he died for you. You blasphemer. You will soon find out the error of your ways, and as you stare into the fire of hell you will regret not listening to my words urging you to repent. To hell with you is the last thing Jesus will say to you.

  81. Does history repeat? Yes and no. Seasons repeat on all planets. Think of Autumn returning each year to the earth. Yes, history repeats, if we are viewing the seasons as history. But history does not repeat if we are looking at the objects living in these seasons as history, instead of the seasons. Each object lives a life of change. I am clearly not the same as I was when I entered the Autumn last year. However, I am not free of the seasonal laws.

    Think of change as octaval. This Autumn I am the same as last Autumn but on a higher and/or lower octave. A different note, so to speak.

    The body evolves, changes, grows older in time. But does the psyche evolve? The mind evolves; but the psyche is something else, something inside the mind untouched by time.

    In terms of political change, seasons of change and evolution and debt aggregation (loss of freedom) are often (I was going to write always) followed by seasons of (winter) disintegration, crisis, depression and warfare. It is difficult to predict which deciduous tree will lose its leaves first in the Autumn chill, so, in that sense at least, history is not predictable. But one could safely predict that all deciduous trees will lose their leaves eventually.

  82. I have a different take on the ‘seasons’ or turnings of American history. 36 year cycles, with each season lasting 9 years.

    1983-1992 HIGH, FIRST TURNING

    1947-1956 HIGH, FIRST TURNING

    1911-1920 HIGH, FIRST TURNING

    You can take these all the way back into the 1700s. Every 36 years in American history we have a spiritual deflation that leads to an economic collapse, banking crises, depressions, and historical crisis.

  83. I think there is another option besides going back to what our framers laid out and devastation. I think what our framers laid out was a good step in the political evolution of humanity, but lacked the most important check and balance, the ability of the people to say NO. Without the ability of the people to say NO, over time our system has morphed into the few controlling it. I think this will always happen in pure representative democracy without any participatory democracy. When the few have too much power, they will almost always be able to be controlled by bribery and threat.

    So, I think it is not good enough to just want to take things back to what they were before. It will only end up here again eventually. The people win things in the fourth turnings. The people won their freedom from the British in the Revolutionary war. They won the end of slavery in the Civil War, and the debt slaves won safety nets in the World War II period. Perhaps we could end debt slavery in this turning. I’d certainly like that, and I do have ideas that would end debt slavery, but I am not sure if that is too ambitious for this turning. Still in some way the people are going to win something by the end of this if we don’t destroy ourselves in the trying, and it won’t be just turning back the clock to the time of our founders. It will be even better.

    On the topic of no leader bringing the country together yet, I think that is because the internet has changed things to where we don’t need a leader to come together anymore, and a single leader is vulnerable to assassination. I think leaderless is the way we are going this time around. And I think the way we will come together is that the far right (libertarians) and the far left will realize that although they differ on many points, they are in agreement on wanting freedom and liberty, and they will fight the fight for it together.


Leave a Comment

Your email address will not be published.

You can add images to your comment by clicking here.