There’s nothing like going $40,000 into debt to get a degree that isn’t required for the job you end up getting, if you get one at all. SAT scores prove that most kids going to college shouldn’t be there in the first place. The only thing propping up the higher education scam is the cheap easy debt being peddled by the Federal Government. If you turn off the spigot of debt, the marginal institutions, along with the for profit scam artist organizations will disappear. With less dumbasses entering college, the tuition prices would drop. Don’t go to college unless you have the aptitude and intelligence to do so.

Guest Post by Karl Denninger

So You Want To Go To College Eh? (To Our Young People)

Look folks, I know, you’ve applied and been accepted.

You’re ecstatic at going off to school in late August or early September.

Before you do it, think long and hard about it.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics issues 10-year projections of job growth by occupation, including estimates of the “typical education needed for entry.” The most recent projections cover 2012 to 2022. During that period, there will be an estimated net increase of 15,628,000 jobs, but only about 27 percent of them (4,230,500) will require a bachelor’s degree or more. More than twice as many of those jobs (8,789,200) are estimated to require no postsecondary education at all. In the 2001-11 decade, about 15 million people received bachelor’s degrees, and the number of college graduates per year has been rising.

Got that?

Only about one in four of the jobs created over the next 10 years will require a college degree, and more than double that many people, including you, will receive one.

It is time for you to sit down and perform an honest self-assessment, because you are about to embark on a choice as an adult that will change your life. It will either change it for the better or it will change it for the worse — and in fact it may economically destroy you.

This is particularly true if you find yourself in the same situation as most, where you are going to to be taking on any debt whatsoever to go to school.

Let’s take a look at the assumptions (once again) that you are making and have been sold:
•Your cost of attendance and thus the amount of debt you will take on are predicated on you finishing school in 4 years.The odds are you will not do so, unless you’re attending one of a handful of very select schools. Most schools intentionally try to erect roadblocks should you stumble in any way in your progression through their program. Your course catalog is a contract, but if you miss just one requirement for any reason you can’t hold them to it if that impacts your progress. What are the odds you will have not one adverse life event over the next four years? Be honest with yourself — virtually everyone has an adverse life event over that period of time! If it takes you six years to finish your costs will be 50% higher than projected.
•If you never finish will your partial education have any value in the marketplace at all? Maybe, and maybe not. But you’re still stuck with the debt. Which is better — pulling coffees at Starbucks with or without $20,000, $40,000 or even $100,000 of debt to pay off? You do the math on that.
•Even if you do finish, what’s the monthly payment on that debt? How will this impact your ability to buy a house and start a family? Are you prepared to sacrifice that goal for a decade to pay down that debt? Think long and hard about that.
•Are you really the exceptional one in whatever field you are choosing to study? Here’s reality for you: The 10% of people in any field usually do ok, irrespective of the obstacles before them. Why? Because they’re exceptional, that’s why. You have been lied to serially since grade school if you are like most kids these days with “graduation” ceremonies going back to your elementary days, handing out awards for things like “exceptional physical education” to every single kid in the class. That’s a lie because it’s impossible for everyone to be “exceptional”, and yet that’s what you’re sold. The odds are 1 in 10 that you are actually the exceptional one. If you are he or she, you’ll probably do ok. If you allow the delusion sold to you to become internalized you will destroy yourself instead.

Now might this pessimism be wrong? Sure. But this much I do know — those with vested interests in selling you something will never tell you that the future is bleak when getting you to impoverish yourself so they can get rich(er) requires that they tell you it will be partly sunny and warm tomorrow.

This is true even if they know there’s a damned hurricane coming and what you ought to be doing is boarding up the windows instead of sitting on the beach marveling at the nice waves rolling in.

We all think we’re exceptional. And we all are — at something. But schools are not only derelict at detecting and nurturing that part of us, they’re diametrically opposed to it because once you discover what you’re really good at you don’t need them any more.

The human animal is born wanting to learn. Watch any baby for a few minutes and you’ll see for yourself. The fundamentals necessary to learn anything — how to read, write and perform basic arithmetic up to exponents — can be taught to any six year on within a few short years, certainly by the time said kid is 10.

The rest is about desire.

Your desire.

The truth is that you are seen by the people of this nation who are older than you, particularly those in the educational system and government, as product. You are a resource to be bled through taxation and fee. You are asked in the name of “country” to get up and go to work — not for yourself, but so you can pay taxes. Think I’m wrong:? Then why did we spend over $2,000 billion last year on social programs and yet for less than 1/4 of that we could give every family in America a $32,000 after-tax income? We could eliminate poverty for every American citizen right now, forever, and we’ve been able to do it since you were an infant. At the same time we could cut federal taxes (all of them) by 30% and eliminate the deficit. All at once. That’s the math folks.

Unfortunately we don’t do any of that in this country. Instead we assess your property, we tax your car, we force you to buy insurance of various sorts and if you have a job today you know all about paying taxes because on your pay stub they’re in your face every Friday.

You are expected to carry on in the face of this and you probably will because frankly, the people of this country no longer have the stomach to put a stop to grift, fraud, theft and outrage. It seems we lost the willingness to do that long before the calendar flipped onto the 20th century. Instead we fill our lives with dreams of Ponzi finance — get rich schemes that all devolve into “get yours no matter what, then run like hell before anyone else can grab it from you.” This is a losing game over the long run for most, but we’re all sold that we’re exceptional — we’re all that 1%, or is it the 0.1%?

Irrespective of that, however, there is no shame in refusing to go into debt to the tune of tens of thousands of dollars because someone tells you it’s what you “should” do, or that the market “demands” it, or that you’re “special.”

Only you know if the path you’re on is really one that tailors to your own personal exceptionalism. The odds are extremely high that it is not, and you are not — not on the path you’re on.

If you’re the one in ten on your chosen path, then stay on it and pursue it. It’s worth it.

If you’re in the 90%, and most of you are, then you need to take the next couple of months and figure that out. You need to change your path before it absorbs you and the machine of lies and deceit put forward both by those who do know better and don’t give a damn (that includes most of your government and people at your school) or those who have fallen for the insanity themselves (that probably includes your parents) grind you up.

In short, you need to change the path you’re walking on before you step off the cliff — it’s a long way down and that’s a knapsack on your back, not a parachute. And while the fall may be exhilarating I assure you that the last quarter of an inch is a real bitch.

You see, you’re either not a kid anymore today, or you soon won’t be.

You’re on the threshold of being an adult.

With adulthood comes the responsibility for your actions and inactions, whether you’ve been duped or not. You, and nobody else, is going to have to live with the outcome of your choices — whether they were made in a fully-informed manner or whether you were only told half the story — or worse, were intentionally lied to. And believe me, when it comes to whether you were lied to — you were.

So if you’re a young person graduating this week, or in the immediate future, step back and think before you step forward.

Your future no longer depends on others.

It now depends on you.

33 thoughts on “75% TOO MANY COLLEGE GRADUATES”

  1. Mr Z , Pirate Jo should have kids. Give her something to do besides wasting her life smelling the roses.I told her I would volunteer to impregnate her.I think she is still thinkin about it.

  2. Long time ago people were awarded degrees for ‘independent’ study. Now degrees are something you purchase.

    I’m 65 and have two STEM degrees. While they have served me fairly well, I would tell a young person to think real hard about getting a technical cert in some sort of trade / craft. You can’t outsource a trade person. With a trade and some business sense you may be able to form a small company.

  3. Admin,
    Read this earlier and I would have to say Karl is about right. The problem is that you have kids, as I do, who have for a dozen or more years have had the idea of college beaten into their heads. The town I live in 98% of the graduating high school students go on to some form of secondary education, most to college. It has become ingrained in their brains that they must go on to college. It has become a fabulous feeder system for the colleges buffering them from the realities of having to go out and create a real business plan and marketing strategy. My daughter is going to UMass, she was on of about 3400 accepted this year. They received 38,000 applications. What a racket. When I went in the early 1980’s it was under $4,000 a year, now about $26,000. What’s even better is the tech companies are screaming about not having enough qualified engineers and want to let in thousands more HB-1 visas, all the while there are thousands of engineering graduates going without regular full time work. I would love to get my hands on some one of these self serving college administrators and tear them a new asshole. Enough rant for today I have to go home and cook dinner.
    Thank you,

  4. “why did we spend over $2,000 billion last year on social programs and yet for less than 1/4 of that we could give every family in America a $32,000 after-tax income?”

    We spent $2 trillion on social programs because the democrats want a locked-in voting majority, and they have it. It only costs $2 trillion a year, a relative bargain. We could pay off all student loan debt with one year’s welfare spending. But it’s more important to support 100 million deadbeats, so they can continue to reproduce, eat, and vote for a living.

    Being on welfare is the best career option today, paying the equivalent of $57,000 after taxes a year and you don’t even have to work, just have sex and squeeze out babies. Good luck finding a job with your college degree that pays $57,000. It helps if you’re a minority, but not a requirement, you don’t have to go $30,000 in debt, and you get free food, free healthcare, free cash, free housing, free phones, free meds, and $10,000 a year in extra “earned income tax credit” even though you don’t pay any taxes.

    The government has indebted an entire generation and then some. They’re debt slaves, owned by the government, and future tax cows to be milked by the government so the government can perpetuate the breeding and exponential growth of the FSA. After awhile, the entire country will be populated by FSA spawn, as people with an education will never be able to have kids, buy a house, never have a family. But they will be taxed to death, and support the government student loan enslavement usury service. The government wants educated people to be debt slaves, makes them less dangerous, especially the ones that resisted liberal progressive diversity and guilt programming by liberal commie professors.

  5. AWD,
    Not so funny story, I was at my doctors last week and one of the nurses doing my check up lamented to me how her son had graduated with his degree in engineering and could not find a sniff of work in his field. She said he was debating whether to go into the Air Force since they would forgive some of his loans. I did not say what I was thinking, that the government had created a debt slave so as to have more cannon fodder at its disposal. Sad, truly sad and disgusting.

  6. Good schools for mining engineering: University of Arizona, Penn State, U of Utah, U of West Virginia, New Mexico Institute for Mining and Engineering, Colorado School of Mines, and the U of Alaska in Fairbanks (pack your long underwear).

    Best starting pay of any occupation today (getting hired by Goldman Sucks is not a job unless you consider selling your soul a job) …… in the $75-90,000 range. And it will jump into 6 figures in a short amount of time.

    You’re welcome.

  7. The flaw in Denninger’s logic is the supposition that just because a job doesn’t “require” a degree that having a degree wouldn’t help get the job. The other implied premise is that someone who doesn’t go to college will spend those years doing something productive. Even if the they wanted to eschew college in favor of something else that’s more immediately remunerative or that builds a useful skill, how many 18 year olds would even know where to start? I don’t know whether Karl went to college, but I do know he started some computer company in Chicago. For most young people, the question isn’t “go to college or start a computer company”. It’s “go to college or earn money parking cars while spending money on weed and pizza”. Getting a degree proves 1) you’re not a complete idiot 2) you can do at least some work and 3) you can delay gratification. Being able to demonstrate those things may give you a leg up getting a job that doesn’t technically require college-acquired skills.

  8. People want to prove that they are employable, and parents want to arrange opportunity for their children. Amazing to me, academics have sold the idea that you don’t really know something unless you have “taken a course” in it.

    Schools can give entrance exams covering anything, but businesses are discriminatory if they do the same. Schools can take money for providing semesters of work experience and internships, while businesses are exploitive for paying their “students” some small amount for doing the same things. Schools strongly suggest that college is the way to success. Any complaints get the reply “You attended for your own reasons. We promised nothing.”

    The value of college is the degree. That is the proof to the future employer that the student once learned something complicated, even if he has since forgotten. The degree is sold dear. A student must take a minimum number of courses (pay a minimum amount of tuition) before taking exams which show knowledge.

    If colleges were in the knowledge business, rather than the degree business, then exams would be administered to anyone regardless of classes purchased. Classes would be optimized to deliver knowledge as a most efficient way to pass the exams, and there would be individual merit badges for exams in each course.

    Unfortunately, colleges are taking advantage of their monopoly and charging more than the market will bear, when you count defaulted student loans. Colleges do not disabuse the student of the wildly optimistic idea that their degree will get them $1 million more in lifetime earnings.

    Easy Opinions – College is an expensive IQ test

    The law says that a company cannot give an employment test unless it has been shown to be non-discriminatory in effect, that it doesn’t screen out people of color at a different rate than people of pallor.

    So, employers don’t create their own tests or use standardized tests. Companies rely heavily on college degrees to give them some little information about the quality of candidates. Interviewers talk randomly about whatever they want, using personal judgment to decide if the candidate is “a good match”. This is supposed to be less discriminatory!

  9. US Government Proposes To Ease Student Loan Standards Even Further

    Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/27/2014

    Because it worked so well for housing finance in the last bubble, the US government is poised to ease loan standards on this cycle’s biggest bubble – student debt. It appears being punched in the face by over-leveraged, over-debted, over-priced housing finance was not enough and as Bloomberg reports, parents whose financial standing disqualify them from most loans will have an easier time borrowing to pay their children’s college costs under a U.S. government proposal to ease credit standards. Come on in – the debt-serf water is warm. With student loan delinquencies already soaring to record highs, some are actually questioning the government’s sanity as consumer advotaes warn “a decent number of people are going to get in trouble.”

  10. Many people say that we do not need so many “college educated” people.

    There is no such thing as too much education. The problem is that degrees are no longer equivalent to education. I would have no problem with everyone having a college degree if college degree = educated. But it doesn’t.

    For me, I would hope that the US would have the best educated people on the planet – that every citizen could speak and write English to a high standard, that everyone could speak and write a foreign language, do calculus, be trained in all of the sciences, be able to program a computer, by well read, be knowledgeable about a wide range of issues, have read the Constitution and all of its Amendments, etc. The majority of ?Americans could, with effort, accomplish those things.

    But instead the US is populated by an incredibly high number of illiterate morons. Too bad about that.

  11. “Getting a degree proves 1) you’re not a complete idiot 2) you can do at least some work and 3) you can delay gratification. Being able to demonstrate those things may give you a leg up getting a job that doesn’t technically require college-acquired skills.”
    —-Iska Waran

    You’re a smart guy, and I mostly agree with your comments. This one, not so much.

    Denninger focused on people who don’t belong in college. And they don’t. The education community exists on getting people into a place where they don’t belong. For their own job security. A degree in art appreciation is largely useless. There are dozens of other examples out there.

    It’s a brainwashing scam by the universities, public and private. Not even the CIA could have thought of it.

  12. Andrew_M_Garland says: “The value of college is the degree. That is the proof to the future employer that the student once learned something complicated”

    Not where I come from. The value of college is in the opportunity it provides to learn something. Many colleges are responding to the demands of their students – the students see themselves as customers, not as traditional students. They refuse to study, and demand their degrees, as after all, they are the customer.

    Also, I believe his comment “The law says that a company cannot give an employment test unless it has been shown to be non-discriminatory in effect, that it doesn’t screen out people of color at a different rate than people of pallor.” to be total and utter bullshit.

    You can give accounting applicants math and accounting tests. What you cannot do is give janitors those tests. The tests need to be professionally developed, but not non-discriminatory. They need to test for the job in question.

  13. SSS – he posted bullshit. He is totally wrong about some of his facts.

    I am an employer – much of what he said re employers was inaccurate. That he thinks employers are too stupid to decide if a person has received an education is arrogant. His comment re the law on testing is flat out wrong.

    He posts bullshit, he gets called on it.

  14. One of the reasons that’s tuition is so ridiculously high, and going up double digits every year is that states have all but cut out contributions to higher education. Used to be states supported colleges and universities with taxpayer money. Now, all that money is going to fund gold-plated union government drone pensions and salaries that are 60% higher than people make in the private sector. States can no longer subsidize universities, and so they have to raise tuition, and students get to spend the rest of their lives in debt. It’s the fucking union drone government employees that get to retire at 50 with massive pensions and benefits once again causing the problem.

  15. AWD – that is correct. Also, education is one of the two major fields – medicine is the other – where there are not major efficiencies being gained. Those fields rely on labor, and it takes as long to train a doctor as it always has, and as long to teach a course in math as it always has – so costs continue to climb.

  16. “Stop cherry picking (Andrew) Garland’s comments. He is spot on.”
    SSS @ llpoh

    “I am an employer – much of what he (Andrew Garland) said re employers was inaccurate. That he thinks employers are too stupid to decide if a person has received an education is arrogant. His comment re the law on testing is flat out wrong.”
    —-llpoh @ SSS

    All right, Mr. Big Shot Employer, let me walk you through this, in your own words.

    “much of what he (Andrew Garland) said re employers was inaccurate” What exactly did he say that was inaccurate?

    “That he thinks employers are too stupid to decide if a person has received an education is arrogant.” WTF? He never said that, or anything close to it. You INFERRED that by saying “he thinks.’ How do you know what the fuck he thinks?

    “His comment re the law on testing is flat out wrong.” Prove it. Examples. Real live, LEGALLY- TESTED-IN-A-COURT-OF-LAW EXAMPLES. Case law, amigo. I will accept nothing less.

  17. Law is written in exclusion not inclusion. Show me where it is illegal to breathe? Cannot do it can you? Ie it is illegal to do such and such is what laws tend to say, not it is legal to do such and such.

    He says business is discriminatory if it gives entrance exams. That is false. Look it up yourself.
    He says a degree is proof to an employer that a student learned something complicated. That is proof of no such thing. That is inaccurate. What do you not understand there? That is indeed arrogant.
    He says company rely on degrees to give them some “little” info – as though there are no other sources.
    I already debunked the crap re tests – it is flat out crap. I can test welders for welding skills, accountants for accounting skills, secretaries for typing skills, etc. but I cannot test janitors for accounting skills.

    The supreme court ruled re the janitor accounting test example, as tests were used in that manner to discriminate.

    Either he is clueless or he is not communicating accurately.

    Seriously SSS – do you know anyone who likely is more up on what a company can legally do or not do than me? If you think you know the law better than me, you prove it.

    It is akin to me telling you you do not know what you are talking about re wiretaps and stakeouts and flying jets. I make a living knowing this shit. .

  18. SSS – someone with no track record comes on, posts some bullshit as fact, and you decide that it is my position that should be challenged. Incredible.

    Betting against me in this stuff would be no way to make a living. But then you know that.

    Why you did not ask him to prove his bullshit is the real question – maybe you love newbies. You old softy.

  19. In the mid ’80s, my advisor (himself Rhodes Scholar and a valedictorian at Harvard) who also served as the school’s pre-law advisor was advising students that unless that could get into a top-tier law school, not to bother going. (Fortunately, most who applied did get in–and few went to lesser schools, but I can’t say that most are happy being a paid prick.)

  20. A person who desires and education of the highest order in whatever discipline or subject available can obtain it with little or no expense, in their free hours without leaving home thanks to the Internet. Most skill sets- the actual implementation of that education through the use of tools- can also be had for little cost and in most cases while actually earning an income if a person is serious about developing those skills in real world applications as an intern, apprentice or volunteer.

    A degree is going to cost you.

    While there are still some careers or disciplines that are 100% locked out for the non-degree holding individual- vascular surgery, for example, there are very few people with the combined desire, intelligence and interest to obtain such an education and put it into practice. I can guarantee, however that should you be one of these rare individuals, that education would likely be obtained at minimal cost based on a future promise of service using those skills.

    What most people talk about when they talk about the importance of “going to college” and “getting a degree” is not the education itself, but the ability to demonstrate conformity to a current paradigm. I could ridicule the oft touted degrees in gender studies or art history- neither of which requires anything more than a modem and curiosity- but far more common degrees such as political science, or general studies. These degrees are for the most part without value except for their ability to confer status. They are credentials, not abilities. In a sane world only a select population would go on to higher education and it would be predicated upon the triple crown of intelligence, desire and ability, something that fewer than 10% of any population has.

    Denninger has really hit this one out of the park because he exposes the reality of what college degrees are about not for the individual, but for the society we currently inhabit. It keeps young adults, at their physical and mental peak, off the job market artificially suppressing the dismal employment stats. It forestalls for many and often the best family formation and child rearing- which anyone with a medical degree will tell you is optimal for women at that age – It offers an additional 4-6 years of social conditioning and propagandizing of impressionable minds into the paradigm of progressive thought. It adds significantly to GDP, creates an enormous level of non-dischargeable debt and thus makes people easier to control and more likely to conform. The only real promise is that you may have a 1 in 4 shot of future employment if the wheels stay on the bus long enough to finish your “education”. If the government was touting that possibility of earning future millions based not on college, but on the lottery and casinos for 4-6 years and pushed that as the avenue for advancement, people would think it was insane, yet as the odds of college degrees being worth the cost approach those of hitting the PowerBall, we only double down on this unsustainable course.

    Life is difficult enough without having to enter the workforce nearly ten years into your adulthood, saddled with a massive debt, alone and without the prospect of creating a family until early middle age if at all and yet this is the course the majority of Americans are told is optimal.

    As I see it it wouldn’t take huge numbers of individuals to turn everything around simply by choosing a different path, by rejecting wholesale the cafeteria style life offered by the ruling elites and finding a niche where ones life is filled not with empty promises, but daily purpose. A life based on productive self sufficiency rather than dependent consumption. While I do not believe that everyone is capable of living such a life, I know that tens of millions are. I encounter them every day, live with them, work with them and find comfort and belonging in their company. They are on the whole happier, healthier, more capable and resilient, funnier and far more interesting than the folks I meet who are on hamster wheel of status seeking consumerism.

    Not that there’s anything wrong with that.

  21. Griggs case was re IQ tests. Duke arranged tests and criteria to exclude blacks from employment.

    If Griggs was an accountant, and Duke administered a math test, properly set up, then it is legal. If Griggs is a janitor, applying an IQ test, along with an absolute requirement for a HS diploma, then it is not legal. that was what Duke was doing.

    I covered this earlier.

  22. This is current employment law about testing. Testing is discouraged if it goes beyond minimums.
    A company can only screen for general ability (ie. intelligence) by using (but not formally requiring) academic degrees, absent work experience.

    Companies can avoid difficulties by not writing anything down, and this confuses just what are the standards for joining any company or starting emmployment in a desired area of interest. Larger companies avoid litigation by not testing. They do not want liabilities caused by the mistakes of hiring managers. Lack of discriminatory intent is not a defense.

    Lipoh, good for you if you test formally. You don’t seem to be aware of the bigger picture.

    === ===

    [edited] State and federal laws protect employees before and after hiring. Before hiring, laws largely concern discrimination. Employers are prohibited from discriminating in the hiring process on the basis of race, gender, national origin, sexual preference, and disability. Certain pre-employment tests may on their face violate these laws, or may do so by being applied incorrectly.

    Because of the potential legal problems in administering pre-employment tests, employers should consult an attorney before utilizing any test beyond a rudimentary skills test.
    === ===

    Note, anything above “rudimentary” is legally dangerous.


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