PEAK WATER (Oldie but Goodie)

 I wrote this one in August 2009. I’m re-posting it to ruin SSS’ weekend.

“It should be obvious from simple arithmetic that population growth is on a direct collision course with increasingly scarce resources.” Jeremy Grantham

The notion of peak water probably sounds crazy to most people. The earth is 70% covered by water. The water cycle replenishes water on a continuous basis. The global warming enthusiasts tell us that glaciers are melting and oceans are rising. This should make water more plentiful. But, as they say in the real estate business – Location, Location, Location. Freshwater shortages in the wrong places could have calamitous consequences to those regions, worldwide commodity prices, the economic future of nations with water shortages and possible war.

Regional water scarcity means water usage exceeds the annual natural replenishment from the water cycle. The impact of water scarcity can be far reaching. It can lead to food shortages, famine, and starvation. Many nations, regions and states have mismanaged their water resources, and they will have to suffer the long-term consequences.

File:Water cycle.png
Source: Wikipedia

The peak oil debate gets a tremendous amount of press and generates heated disagreements on both sides. The focus on peak oil has permitted the future water crisis to stay under the radar. As usual, myopic self serving politicians have ignored resource issues for the last 30 years. These were 30 years of debt financed good times with relatively low prices for all natural resources and commodities. The end of this period of low prices is nigh. The brilliant investment manager Jeremy Grantham lays out the future in his recent newsletter:

“We must prepare ourselves for waves of higher resource prices and periods of shortages unlike anything we have faced outside of wartime conditions. In fact, I believe we are already several years into this painful transition but are still mostly invested in denying it.”

The following chart provides a useful comparison of oil and water as resources. While oil is non-renewable and limited, it is replaceable by other more costly alternatives. Water is renewable and relatively unlimited, but there is no substitute and it is only useful in the precise places. The Southwest region of the United States, our fastest growing region, has considerable freshwater constraints and could ultimately run out of water.

CHARACTERISTIC OIL WATER
Quantity of resource Finite Literally finite; but practically unlimited at a cost
Renewable or Non-Renewable Non-renewable resource Renewable overall, but with locally non-renewable stocks
Flow Only as withdrawals from fixed stocks Water cycle renews natural flows
Transportability Long-distance transport is economically viable Long distance transport is not economically viable
Consumptive versus non-consumptive use Almost all use of petroleum is consumptive, converting high-quality fuel into lower quality heat Some uses of water are consumptive, but many are not. Overall, water is not “consumed” from the hydro-logic cycle
Substitutability The energy provided by the combustion of oil can be provided by a wide range of alternatives Water has no substitute for a wide range of functions and purposes
Prospects Limited availability; substitution inevitable by a backstop renewable source Locally limited, but globally unlimited after backstop source (e.g. desalination of oceans) is economically and environmentally developed
Source: Pacific Institute

 

Facts & Figures

According to the United Nations, by 2020 water use is expected to increase by 40% to support the food requirements of a worldwide population that will grow from 6.7 billion people to 7.5 billion people. The U.N. estimate is that 1.8 billion people will be living in regions with extreme water scarcity. Even though 70% of the globe is covered by water, most of it is not useable because it is saltwater. Only 2% of the earth’s water is considered freshwater. Most of the freshwater is locked up in glaciers, permanent snow cover and in deep groundwater.

Desalinization is a process that can convert saltwater into freshwater, but it is only practically useful on the coastlines and it is 15 times more  expensive. The middle of the United States is considered our breadbasket, where the majority of our food is grown. Drought and/or over-consumption of existing sources of water in this sensitive area would have worldwide implications, as the U.S. is a huge exporter of wheat, soybeans, rice and corn. The United States exported $115 billion of agricultural products in 2008 while importing $80 billion, according to the USDA. This is one of the few remaining businesses where the U.S. is a net exporter. Population growth and water shortages could change that equation.

One estimate of global water distribution:
Water source Water volume, in cubic miles Water volume, in cubic kilometers Percent of fresh water Percent of total water
Oceans, Seas, & Bays 321,000,000 1,338,000,000 96.5
Ice caps, Glaciers, & Permanent Snow 5,773,000 24,064,000 68.7 1.74
Groundwater 5,614,000 23,400,000 1.7
    Fresh 2,526,000 10,530,000 30.1 0.76
    Saline 3,088,000 12,870,000 0.94
Soil Moisture 3,959 16,500 0.05 0.001
Ground Ice & Permafrost 71,970 300,000 0.86 0.022
Lakes 42,320 176,400 0.013
    Fresh 21,830 91,000 0.26 0.007
    Saline 20,490 85,400 0.006
Atmosphere 3,095 12,900 0.04 0.001
Swamp Water 2,752 11,470 0.03 0.0008
Rivers 509 2,120 0.006 0.0002
Biological Water 269 1,120 0.003 0.0001
Total 332,600,000 1,386,000,000 100
Source: Igor Shiklomanov’s chapter “World fresh water resources” in Peter H. Gleick (editor), 1993, Water in Crisis: A Guide to the World’s Fresh Water Resources (Oxford University Press, New York).

 

The major challenges regarding freshwater are:

  • Tremendously uneven distribution of water on earth.
  • The economic and physical constraints of tapping water trapped in glaciers.
  • Human contamination of existing water supplies.
  • The high cost of moving water from one place to another.

Regional scarcity is not easily solved. Once the extraction of water exceeds the natural rate of replenishment, there are only a few options.

  • Reduce demand to sustainable levels.
  • Move the demand to an area where water is available.
  • Shift to increasingly expensive sources, such as desalinization.

None of these options is available for many areas in the Southwest U.S. The cities of Las Vegas, and Phoenix were built in the middle of the desert. The Hoover Dam, built on the Colorado River near Las Vegas during the Great Depression, created Lake Mead, the country’s largest artificial body of water. The lake provides water to Arizona, California, Nevada and northern Mexico – but after several recent years of drought, on top of ever-growing demand, it’s dangerously depleted. Housing developments on the outskirts of these towns have been stopped dead in their tracks by lack of water supply. The growth of these major U.S. metropolitan areas is in danger of going into reverse if their long-term water supplies are not secure.

Mike Shedlock noted the difficulties facing the Southwest in a white paper that he wrote on the subject of peak water:

 “There is more water allocated to each user from the Colorado River than there is water to allocate. As long as some people are willing to sell their water, this isn’t an immediate problem. Chevron’s water rights for its DeBeque, Colo., shale oil project are leased, not sold, to the city of Las Vegas for drinking water. How will Las Vegas replace that in the future when Chevron won’t extend the lease? Many areas are using ground water that will be used up entirely in just a few decades.”

 Potential Impact on Commodities

The United States, for better or worse, is a sprawling suburban dominated country with large supplies of freshwater in some regions and limited amounts in other regions. Suburban sprawl has put intense pressure on local water supplies. The millions of acres of perfectly manicured green lawns and millions of backyard “cement ponds” require vast quantities of water to retain that glorious green hue.  The Ipswich River near Boston now “runs dry about every other year or so,” according to Sandra Postel, director of the Global Water Policy Project. “Why? Heavy pumping of groundwater for irrigation of big green lawns.”

In drought years like 1999 or 2003, Maryland, Virginia and the District have begun to fight over the Potomac — on hot summer days combining to suck up 85 percent of the river’s flow. With 67 million more people expected to inhabit the United States by 2030, these water shortages will only become more severe.

Peak_water_2
Source: The Big Picture

Kansas is considered part of the fertile mid-section of our country that has allowed the average American to become morbidly obese. The story of Scott City, Kansas should be a warning to all farming communities in the Midwest. Mike Shedlock describes what happened to Scott City:

“Farmers around Scott City pumped with abandon from the underground reservoir called the Ogallala Aquifer in the 1960s, ’70s, and ’80s, raising record wheat, corn, and alfalfa crops, and never once worrying that they might hit ‘E’ on the tank fueling the economy. But today, in a withering downtown that no longer has a place for residents to buy shoes or dress clothing, some have likened the situation to a car running out of gas.

“‘If you run out of water for your crops, that’s one thing,’ farmer Kelly Crist says, recalling the day about a decade ago when his well went dry. ‘But when you go to your house and turn the shower on and there is no water, it’s a serious situation. Today, the 46-year-old farmer relies on an 800-foot-deep well that pokes into a deeper but smaller aquifer to fill his toilets, sinks, and bathtub.

“Water levels in the Ogallala, which stretches from Texas to South Dakota, vary in depth, and some communities have decades — or even more than a century — before the water runs out.Scott City sits atop a shallow portion of the aquifer. Water experts say that makes it a window into the Plains’ future.

“‘The area around Scott City is beginning to experience what the rest of the region is going to experience if we continue to pump the way we do,’ says Rex Buchanan of the Kansas Geological Survey. ‘If they keep going at the rate they are, it’s not a sustainable lifestyle. Something has to give.’

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/8e/Stocks_to_use_ag_Indicators_market_1977_2007.png

Food production around the world has begun to flatten or decline. The last 10 years have seen steady erosion in the amount of grain grown per capita. And since wheat and rice and corn are all world markets, with developing countries growing at a breakneck pace, the need for imports elsewhere could drive up the cost of food everywhere. The Chinese are relentlessly converting farmland to industrial uses (even as they continue to demand more meat and grains in their diet). The price spike in 2007 and 2008 was not a onetime event.

It was a foreshadowing of a much more costly future for consumers. The U.N. said global food reserves in 2008 were at their lowest level in 30 years, which was good for only 53 days, compared with 169 days in 2007. Peak oil and peak water are misleading terms. They should be changed to peak cheap oil and peak cheap water. We’ll be able to produce oil and water for decades, but it will cost significantly more to do so. This will result in much higher commodity prices as farming requires prodigious amounts of oil and water to produce the food for the 6.7 billion people that inhabit the planet (8.3 billion projected in 2030).

More Dire Consequences

“In real life our species has such a modest ability to deal with distant outcomes or to defer gratification that a bad ending is probably inevitable. We need, it seems, the shock of a Pearl Harbor to really gear up and make sacrifices.”
Jeremy Grantham

Americans seem to have a problem facing up to imminent threats until they hit them like a sledgehammer. This penchant for delay is going to cause much heartache and pain for most Americans. Hoping for a good outcome will not work. Thirty years of delay has set the stage for eventual conflict over resources. Peak oil is the more likely trigger for armed conflict. We know who has the oil – Middle East, Russia, Brazil, Canada.

We know who needs the oil – United States, China, Europe, Japan. Peak water as a trigger for conflict isn’t on anyone’s radar screen. It is interesting that Brazil, Russia, and Canada also have the greatest amount of renewable freshwater on the planet. South America, which has 28% of the world’s freshwater and consumes only 6%, is the prize. Asia, which has 29% of the world’s freshwater, consumes 50% of all the freshwater on the planet. With high population growth and industrial development something will have to give in Asia.

Total Renewable Freshwater Supply, by Country
Country Annual Renewable Water Resourcesa (km^3/yr)
Brazil 8,233
Russia 4,498
Canada 3,300
United States of America 3,069
Indonesia 2,838
China 2,830
Colombia 2,132
Peru 1,913
India 1,908
Congo, Democratic Republic (formerly Zaire) 1,283
Venezuela 1,233
Bangladesh 1,211
Myanmar 1,046
Source: Pacific Institute

 

A looming future crisis of food shortages and skyrocketing commodity prices is inevitable. Peak water will play a significant role in the crisis. The facts are undeniable:

  • Droughts in key farming belt areas due to climate change.
  • Less snow pack in the mountains resulting in less freshwater flows during growing season.
  • Contamination of freshwater sources by industrial waste.
  • Soil erosion and depletion of underground aquifers.
  • Higher oil prices resulting in higher fertilizer costs, food transport, and industrial agriculture.
  • Expansion of bio-fuels as an energy source.
  • Worldwide population growth, with developing countries expanding the diets of their middle class.
  • Subsidies and tariffs that protect farmers and distort market prices.
  •  Inability to transport water economically.

War over resources has happened before and it will happen again. Japan attacked Pearl Harbor because the U.S. was cutting off its oil supply. The devastating combination of peak oil and peak water in the coming years will combine to create a commodity crisis that is likely to spur armed conflict as countries contend for  declining resources. The question is who will attack who and when. In the meantime, plant a vegetable garden.

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newsjunkie
newsjunkie

I came across an article by Servando Gonzalez, who believes that the invasion of Libya is in part due to its vast underground water supples and I’m inclined to think he’s onto something.

“…In late 2006, while still in the White House, CFR member George W. Bush bought a 98,840 acre ranch in the northern Chaco region of Paraguay. Though the news was all over the South American press, it passed unreported by the U.S. mainstream press, despite the fact that Bush’s daughter, Jenna, flew to Paraguay under cover of a 10-day UNICEF trip, allegedly to visit child welfare projects. During the visit, she paid a secret visit to Paraguay’s president Nicanor Duarte to get his approval to the land deal on behalf of the Bush family.

The land sits atop of the Guaraní aquifer, the largest natural deposit of fresh water in South America, and one of the largest in the world. It has been calculated that the huge underground reservoir could supply free drinking water to the whole world for 200 years. The ranch is protected by a secret U.S. military base manned by American troops ready to serve and protect the interests of the NWO conspirators.

Now, back to Libya.

In the 1960s, while performing oil exploration deep in the southern Libyan desert, Libyan geologists discovered four huge fresh water reservoirs that had been kept untouched by man for millennia. It was calculated that these vast reserves contain close to 35,000 cubic kilometers of pure drinking water — most likely, the largest aquifer on the African continent.

Muammar al-Qaddafi may be an authoritarian dictator, but, contrary to the American NWO conspirators, he does not want to destroy his country. So, he ordered a series of scientific studies on the possibility of accessing this vast ocean of fresh water and bringing it to the Libyan people, mostly concentrated on the northern coastal areas of the country. To this effect, in late 1983, Qaddafi created the Great Man-Made River Authority, whose job was taking water from the aquifers in the south, and bringing it in the most efficient and economic way to the Libyan coastal belt. The amount of water was so huge that he offered to share it with some of the neighboring countries, particularly Egypt.

As he publicly expressed, Qaddafi’s goal was to use the water mostly for irrigation. This would turn Libya into a country of agricultural abundance, with the capability of producing food and water for Libya’s needs and its close neighbors. Of course, this goes contrary to the plans the NWO conspirators have carefully crafted for the rest of us. An action was in order…”

Here’s the link for the whole article

http://www.intelinet.org/sg_site/articles/sg_libya_war.html

KaD
KaD

But let’s keep destroying the little precious potable freshwater we have with fracking. Yeah, that’ll make things better.

TeresaE
TeresaE

Take this and add to it the anecdote from a TBP’r from the Great Plains (removing the earthen hills to plant every square inch, putting the Great Plains right back where they were leading up to the Dust Bowl) and you are left with a sinking feeling in the pit of your stomach.

But, Americans will NOT care until the day their shiny, petro-based, overpriced clear “spring” water is either $20 a bottle or gone forever.

Why plan for tomorrow when you can Tweet(tm) today?

Surly1
Surly1

Had no idea Admin wrote this in 2009. This outlines what will be THE critical issue in the coming years. And is one of the reasons why any activity that pollutes the watersheds is absolutely nucking futz.

If the figures from “Water in Crisis: A Guide to the World’s Fresh Water Resources” are to be believed, (and if I read them correctly), we’re prosecuting ALL human activity with @ two per cent of the planet’s available water. That’s a too-thin margin.
Any prep plan ought to involve multiple water access sources and a filtration system.

Oh– one other thing–

“It is interesting that Brazil, Russia, and Canada also have the greatest amount of renewable freshwater on the planet. South America, which has 28% of the world’s freshwater and consumes only 6%, is the prize.”

While South America may be the prize, the Canada datum puts the proposed “North American Union” in sharper focus, don’t it?

Our troops may be deployed to go get the oil, but we may be about one or two severe weather events away from a war over water. Makes that Libya angle even more fascinating…

SSS

Admin is on a Doom and Gloom campaign to piss a lot of people off. First, it’s the fricking fracking fiasco article. Now, Peak Water. Bullshit. At least for the U.S., bullshit. Here’s my response.

What Mother Nature taketh away, Mother Nature giveth.

When this Peak Water article was written in 2008, it was at the height of a nearly decade long drought in the Southwest. Since then, consider:

1) The Spring rains and snows in the Southwest (yes, it snows a lot in the mountains of Arizona) of Feb-Mar 2009 filled the 6 reservoirs of Arizona’s Salt River Project. For example, Lake Roosevelt, the anchor lake for much of the water going to Phoenix, went from 18% of capacity to 99% of capacity in a matter of weeks. It is still at 93% capacity.

2) The 2010-2011 snowpack on the western side of the Continental Divide in Colorado is nearly DOUBLE the average annual snowfall. 170% to be exact. What does this mean? It means that Lake Powell (ignored in the article) and Lake Meade, cited in the article as getting “dangerously low,” are about to get a bonanza in water. Lake Meade alone is estimated to gain 32-36 FEET in its water level. Lake Powell is currently at 56% capacity, and Lake Meade at 45%. That’s gonna change…………..big time.

Let me give Admin a statistic for another doomer article. Southern Arizona has gotten one-quarter of an inch of rain so far this year. WE’RE DOOMED!!!!

Tbessi
Tbessi

Peak Fear mongering,

I suppose true for certain states, countries.

Here in the Midwest, I’m not going to loose a drop of sleep over it.

Niagra Falls: More than 6 million cubic feet (168,000 m3) of water falls over the crest line every minute in high flow,[3] and almost 4 million cubic feet (110,000 m3) on average.

That’s a lot of fresh water we are dumping out to sea every minute to be anywhere close to peak!

Your going to have to wait until the falls drains the Great Lakes before I buy this one.

Of course I will not be moving to Arizona or California any time soon, maybe bottling water and selling it to them will be a profitable business venture.

ron
ron

Dont worry washington well always be happy to provide water by pissing on you whenever possible.

stevie
stevie

tbessie

So you figure this is all scare tactics about the water?

Here’s a little information that might get that brain thinking……I own a large property in Calif with springs and all kinds of fresh water deeded to it and guess who are looking into buying these properties up?
European Mutual Funds are packaging these properties to sell in 50-100 mil dollar group investments.

Do you think they know something that you don’t?

Bob
Bob

The concepts to study are “Peak Freshwater” and “Peak Cheap Water”. The practical issues with desalinization of ocean water deserve a lot of attention as well.

As the article and some of the comments point out, uneven distribution, demand and pollution are the main culprits in the water problem.

Scientists report that the amount of water has neither been increased or decreased since the Earth assumed its present configuration — that water cannot neither be created or destroyed, but only altered.

Ihaved turned down more than one opportunity to relocate to the Southwestern US. It appears it may be headed for a water-based economic debacle. There are a number of other terrible water situations around the world.

Conflicts over water may be more frequent and intense than conflicts over other resources in the coming years…

Tbessi
Tbessi

You can have some of our water, I just wish it would stop raining 2 times a week for the last 6 months so I could get some actual work done.

Take a look at your natural soils if you have a lot of clays or rock than, duh its going to talk a long time to build up any storage because most of its going to shed to the nearest river. You live hear in Indiana, Michigan it doesn’t very much for long.

Go visit Niagra that’s a lot of water going out to the ocean every minute. You might have to migrate to areas with better soils and water.

Kind of like complaining about running out of water or air on the moon!

SSS

Bob said, “I haved turned down more than one opportunity to relocate to the Southwestern US. It appears it may be headed for a water-based economic debacle.”

You need to study the water situation in the Southwest more. It is NOT headed toward a debacle. Go over to the Bread Basket article thread.

Kill Bill
Kill Bill

Well, there are problems with zebra mussels [Lake Texoma] that have altered water availability. Texas has only one natural lake, the rest of the reservoirs are all man made [dams].

Kill Bill
Kill Bill

I own a large property in Calif with springs and all kinds of fresh water deeded to it and guess who are looking into buying these properties up?
European Mutual Funds are packaging these properties to sell in 50-100 mil dollar group investments. -Stevie

I doubt they are buying the properties because of water rights but because they think the housing market [prices] have hit bottom, IMO.

TeresaE
TeresaE

Kill Bill says:

Well, there are problems with zebra mussels [Lake Texoma] that have altered water availability. Texas has only one natural lake, the rest of the reservoirs are all man made [dams].

KB, the zebra mussels do a number on manmade water collection (maybe we, the more intelligent animal, should do something to fix that?), as was evidenced in Lake Erie back in the ’80s.

Every other week there were scare journalism stories about how they were going to kill the lake (which was actually declared dead in the 70s, due to industry, not snails) and decimate the walleye population.

Funny thing happened. The little filter clogging for the nuke plant buggers, actually helped to clean up the lake.

Dramatically. First time I went to Erie in the ’70s it was disgusting. Smelled to high heaven, left oil on your skin, had a nice steel gray color and tasted horrible. Though I haven’t been in five years or so, the last time I went the water was blue, the smell was fresh, the sand looked clean and absolutely no icky feeling left on the skin after a dip.

Invasive foreign species aren’t always as detrimental as we are lead to believe.

stevie
stevie

Killer

They fly over with thermal imaging and see where all the water flows. I’m not shitting you!

Kill Bill
Kill Bill

They fly over with thermal imaging and see where all the water flows. I’m not shitting you! -stevie

Link?

Kill Bill
Kill Bill

Invasive foreign species aren’t always as detrimental as we are lead to believe. -TE

Thats probably true, but its federal regulations that have reduced our water supply, here, because of zebra mussel fear, by 1/4.

sensetti
sensetti

KB here is a link, Infared Imaging can detect ground water.

COOL VIEW OF GROUNDWATER—Infrared images shot by airplane in September 2002 reveal the extent of groundwater seeping into Waquoit Bay, Mass. Bright yellows indicate locations where cool groundwater is emerging from the sandy bottom into the salty, warm waters of the bay. (SenSyTech, Inc. and Ann Mulligan, WHOI.)

http://www.whoi.edu/oceanus/viewArticle.do?id=2485

sensetti
sensetti

KB I dont know if that is what Stevie is talking about or not?

SSS

Admin

Not gonna ruin my weekend. Not even close. From the above article …..

“The major challenges regarding freshwater are: Tremendously uneven distribution of water on earth.”

Correct. And the uneven distribution ain’t our problem and never will be. Never.

The article incorrectly points out Brazil and Russia as the two biggest sources of “renewable” (what the fuck does that mean?) water, with Canada and the US running third and fourth. No, no, and no. Canada and the US have 80% of the world’s fresh water largely sitting in humongous lakes which are mostly NATURAL.

Not so with Brazil and Russia. Their fresh water is defined as “a river runs through it.” Well, we have rivers, too. And really big fucking lakes. Thousands of them.

Take your Peak Water shit and sell it to the Saudis, the Africans, or wherever you think it makes sense. It doesn’t even come close here.

Mike Moskos

Take a look at Alan Savory’s TED video: http://www.ted.com/talks/allan_savory_how_to_green_the_world_s_deserts_and_reverse_climate_change

Properly managed herbivores (like cows) can reverse the desertification of the world (and make lots of micro farms profitable). The U.S.–which once had the world’s richest soils thanks to great management by the “native” peoples–is turning to desert faster than any other country in history. The soil can hold huge amounts of water (and carbon) if we let the bacterial and fungal life in it flourish rather than buying from factory farmers who make their soils sterile with pesticides. How you spend your food dollars makes a big difference.

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