This is classic economic propaganda. The government reported new home sales of 504,000 in May. The talking head douchebags on CNBC and the rest of the propaganda media declared this as proof of a housing recovery. New home sales COLLAPSED in June to 406,000. This is a 20% decrease from the number reported last month. But the captured assholes in the MSM are only reporting a moderate 8% decrease over last month. How can this be? It seems the stock market surge created by last month’s report was produced with fake numbers. New home sales weren’t really 504,000. They were 442,000. OOOPS!!!! Why does the government report numbers at all until they know what they really are? A 13% error in one month is a fucking disgrace. When people in the real world make 13% mistakes, they are fucking fired. How many times has the government underestimated a key economic number by 13%? Never. The errors are always in the negative direction and the government and propaganda media expect the error to be lost in translation.
Government reported data is like the American Dream – you’d have to be asleep to believe it.
New Home Sales Collapse 20% From May To Dec 2012 Levels; Biggest Miss In A Year
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 07/24/2014 10:06 -0400
New Home Sales in June plunged to 406k vs 504k in May (remember that 504k print was the catalyst for ‘weather’ is over and the market to surge: it somehow was magically revised lower by more than 10% to only 442K) Now that has soaked in, consider this is equal lowest sales print since September 2013 (and Dec 2012) and the biggest miss since July 2013.
The last 3 months of exuberance have all been revised significantly lower as follows:
- March: 410K to 408K
- April: 425K to 408K
- May: 504K to 442K
What is even more troubling in the “survey” vs “reality” world is this collapse in sales when NAHB Sentiment surged to near cycle highs. For context, this is a 5-standard-deviation miss from economists’ expectations, below the lowest guess and a massive miss from almost highest estimate Joe Lavorgna’s 510k.
Where the biggest revision was: sales in the West. One wonders how it is possible to overestimate sales in one region by 20%?
And this is all going to be quite a shock for the homebuilders…
Finally, here is your long-term recovery:
US Manufacturing PMI Drops, Biggest Miss On Record
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 07/24/2014 09:50 -0400
But, but, but… the rest of the world’s PMIs are soaring as soft-survey data trumps any hard data facts. US Manufacturing dropped from 57.3 to 56.3 despite analysts that were convinced it should rise further to 57.5. This is the biggest miss on record, and the 2nd miss in a row. In spite of soaring markets proving the recoverty is just picking up and accelerating, new export orders weakened, manufacturing production fell, input costs surged, and employment tumbled to 10-month lows. But, stocks are surging on this dismal news…
as Employment tumbled to its worst of the year!
“Worryingly, job creation slid to its lowest since last September, which in part reflects concerns that current sales growth may not be sustained. A key source of concern is export sales, which continue to show disappointingly meagre gains”
* * *
the US data mills churn out a lot of surveys. Since the last FOMC meeting, there have been four new ISM readings and a bunch of regional releases. A popular view is that these surveys are better than hard data.
In our view, however, these data get way too much air time. They give a timely, rough read on the economy, but should get little weight once hard data are released.