NO, THE GOVERNMENT GDP REPORT IS NOT AN ONION ARTICLE

You know when Onion articles are more believable than government reported data, your country has jumped the shark. Last quarter your government reported GDP GROWTH of 0.1%. They ultimately admitted it was really NEGATIVE 2.9%. Now the government goes back and “adjusts” 15 years worth of their worthless data and surprise surprise, it was ONLY NEGATIVE 2.1%.

Now these BEA drones have the balls to report a 4% 2nd quarter increase. This figure is beyond laughable. It is complete and utter bullshit. Three months from now they will revise it to 1.5%. They needed a big number today because the world situation is going to shit and Obama’s approval rating hits new lows every day.

Zero Hedge points out that the BEA admitted to making wild ass guesses about the two biggest components of the surge because they had incomplete June data. The downward revisions will follow after they get their all-time stock market high based on bullshit data.

They had the gall to say that consumer spending spiked when major retailers have been reporting shitty 2nd quarter sales. Who do you think is lying?

They say that residential construction surged in the 2nd quarter. We know for a fact that new home construction plummeted in the 2nd quarter. All of the housing market is lower than last year. How can durable goods purchases be surging (appliances, furniture, electronics) when the retail sales figures for those retailers are negative versus last year?

This entire report is bogus. I know it, you know it, and the government drones know it. But CNBC and the rest of the captured corporate media will shout the awesome news from the mountaintops and the Wall Street shysters will pump the rigged market with their HFT supercomputers.

All is well in our Brave New World of finance and propaganda.

 

Q2 GDP Surges 4%, Beats Estimates Driven By Inventories, Fixed Investment Spike; Historical Data Revised

Tyler Durden's picture

Moments ago the Commerce department reported Q2 GDP which blew estimates out of the water, printing at 4.0%, above the declining 3.0% consensus, as a result of a surge in Inventories and Fixed Investment, both of which added over 2.5% of the total print, while exports added another 1.23% to the GDP number. The full breakdown by component is shown below.

What is interesting is that the Commerce Department announced that as a result of incomplete June data, the biggest components of the GDP beat, Inventories and Trade, were estimated. In other words, assume that future revisions of Q2 GDP will be lower, not higher, as the actual data comes in, and especially as the CapEx data, which contrary to the GDP report, has not rebounded. Speaking of revisions, today the BEA also released its annual revision of all data from 1999 to Q1 2014, which made last quarter’s -2.9% print a more palatable -2.1%, in the process throwing everyone’s trendline calculations off as yet another GDP redefinition was implemented.

The chart of the original and revised data is shown below.

We are currently combing through the years of revisions and will provide a snapshot shortly but for the time being here is Bloomberg’s take:

  • 2Q personal consumption up 2.5% vs est. up 1.9% (range 1.5%-2.9%); prior revised to 1.2% from 1%
  • Core PCE q/q 2% vs est. 1.9% (range 1.4%-2.3%)
  • Gross private investment up 17% in 2Q after falling 6.9% in 1Q
  • Residential up 7.5% after falling 5.3%
  • Purchases of durable goods jumped 14%, most since 3Q 2009
  • Corporate spending up 5.9% vs little changed q/q
  • Inventory accumulation added 1.7ppts to GDP

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TC
TC

These horseshit reports used to make me angry, now they just make me chuckle. All that matters is for the lo-info voters to get their huffpo, yahoo and media matters headlines.

Tommy
Tommy

If it feels good, do it.

ThePessimisticChemist

My ridiculously liberal intern touted those numbers to me. Then I had him research Q1 GDP claims vs. revisions.

He is now quiet.

Then we talked about declining median household income, rising food/energy costs, and the skyrocketing cost of medical care or education.

Damn it all, he seems almost morose. Shattering the delusions of the young is almost as fun as forcibly yanking a boomer’s head out of the sand.

Sensetti
Sensetti

Obama will save us just hang in there a little longer. He has a pen and a phone and he”ll bring the hope and change you all so desperately need. Just wait and see, be patient, believe in Barack.

TeresaE
TeresaE

Wow, these struggling retailers and contractors – around here – sure are being the friend of the consumer with all their sales and deals. Sales and deals that shrink their profit margins, even as their margins shrink. Everyone knows that corporations beholden to shareholders voluntarily cut their own throats when business is growing.

Get freaking real.

Illusions, fantasies and bullshit. From the Bureaus of Lies and Statistics.

This crap only makes the inevitable crash so much more spectacular, “unexpected” and, in the end, destructive to a level not seen in a long time, if ever.

It took over 20 years, a massive industrial base and a World War fought on multiple fronts to “fix” the economy and our stock markets.

And yet tools like someone I am close to insist that the market “always comes back,” even as the number of years left to “invest” is way less than 20.

So it goes, serenity now…

Thinker

The fact that 77 million Americans are in debt collection sure helps to demonstrate the effect of subprime loans on the economy.

Consumers are increasingly noticing that the economy is getting worse, not better:

GALLUP: U.S. Economic Confidence Down Sharply From Last Week
http://www.gallup.com/poll/174179/economic-confidence-down-sharply-last-week.aspx

WASHINGTON, D.C. — Gallup’s U.S. Economic Confidence Index dropped six points last week to -21 — the largest one-week drop since last October, and the lowest weekly index score since December. Americans’ confidence in the economy’s future waned more than their views of the current conditions.

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Econman
Econman

Ah, a surge in inventories. Bought with borrowed money to goose the GDP, but inventory that will not be sold quickly & will be marked down tremendously.

Also, with a real inflation rate probably above 10%, GDP is really negative because they don’t subtract inflation.

The Obomber Admin. idiots are doing more, unbelievably, to destroy the USA’s credibility than GW Bush. Who’d have thought U could do worse than that guy?

Econman
Econman

Belive in Barack!

1,2,3 o’clock, 4 o’clock Ba-rack…

We’re gonna Ba-rack around the clock tonight!

More like “We’re gonna Ba-rack around a Greater Depression in sight.”

TeresaE
TeresaE

How does the bullspit “goodwill” component (overpayment of purchase price of corporations, now part of GDP as if it actually contributes to production), being added last July coincide with the inventory build?

What if it ISN’T “build” but is just “hoard” – as in the stuff ain’t selling?

What if we add hookers, blow, ganja, blackmail, extortion and murder-for-hire to our GDP, what will that do for the “economy?”

Anyone that believes ANY of these stats, from the gubment, or even most “private” data-compilers, is a fool.

SISO, shit in, shit out, that is what passes for information in this “information-age.”

Thinker

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2014/07-overflow/GDP vs Inv Q2_0.jpg

Econman
Econman

Quite:
But an executive noted on an investor call that, right now, you see aggressive competition in the subprime sector, particularly the “deep subprime space.” And even at Ally, the delinquency rate is beginning to rise.

Deep Subprime Space? Will that be a new Star Trek series>

Econman
Econman

Quote:
What if we add hookers, blow, ganja, blackmail, extortion and murder-for-hire to our GDP, what will that do for the “economy?”

When the Greater Digital Depression hits, they will probably add stolen cars too.

There’s no limit to phonying up the numbers!

Econman
Econman

TeresaE, are U related to Sheila E., who used to play with Prince?

spinolator
spinolator

Bullshit. Those govt numbers are real. I know bc today when I woke up I saw a unicorn.

TE
TE

@Economan, why do I remind you of her? Funny guy…

I vaguely remember hit hit, but what I do remember is that she was one beautiful mulatto.

Nope, the last time my bloodline had that much African in it would have been sometime around the Civil War.

And, I have NO musical talent. None. Nada. Zip. I dreamt of being a rock star when I was young, the scowls of anyone that heard me try pretty quickly woke me up to the fact that I wouldn’t be the next Pat Benatar, Joan Jett or Chrissy Hines.

Anonymous
Anonymous

Meanwhile, yet another, “This is NOT an Onion Article” has appeared.

More sound and fury, signifying nothing.

GOP-led House votes to sue Obama in first-of-its-kind lawsuit
http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-house-votes-to-sue-obama-20140730-story.html

hardscrabble farmer
hardscrabble farmer

You guys must not listen to NPR. They were touting this yesterday as if it were 1927. Good times! 4% growth! Even more next quarter! Obama’s policies are working! 280,000 new jobs every month! Housing starts up, up, up! Obama did the right thing and auto sales have never been better! Economy hasn’t grown like this since records were first kept!

Every single hourly update, all day long. I listen to it because it entertains the hell out of me, keeps my blood pressure up there and really cues me in to just how much Kool Aid these folks imbibe.

Yesterday was a banner day for these folks, you’d have thought it was VJ day.

Econman
Econman

TE, just having fun. Glad U & others post & it’s good to read stuff from a woman’s perspective too.

& those 3 ladies U mentioned are rock goddesses & legends. U couldn’t have mentioned 3 better female rockers. I’ve seen Joan Jett many times live & they sound much better than the records.

TBP should someday, after the collapse, have a cookout or something. Everyone can see the faces behind the sarcasm. Although it would probably be infiltrated by some government agent provocateurs who don’t like admin’s site.

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