Do Fourth Turnings ever de-intensify?
Did someone just do something very stupid?
Is all hell about to break loose?
It Begins: Ukraine Troops Destroy Part Of “Armed” Russian Convoy
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/15/2014 10:43 -0400
Things just escalated notably – (Via Bloomberg):
- *UKRAINE FORCES ATTACK ARMED CONVOY FROM RUSSIA: LYSENKO
- *UKRAINE TROOPS ‘DESTROY’ PART OF ARMED CONVOY: LYSENKO
- *UKRAINE’S POROSHENKO: CONFIRMED APC INCURSION TO CAMERON
We await Putin’s response…
- *RUSSIA CONCERNED AT ATTEMPTS TO DISRUPT AID CONVOY
EU & US Stocks and bond yields (and Ruble) are tumbling, gold rising.
Of course we noted Russia’s “invasion” last night… but stocks didn’t care…
A reminder of the comparative anxiety in bonds and stocks…
From Reuters:
- UKRAINIAN MILITARY SPOKESMAN SAYS UKRAINE FORCES ENGAGED RUSSIAN ARMOURED COLUMN ON UKRAINIAN SOIL AND “PART OF IT NO LONGER EXISTS”
- UKRAINIAN MILITARY SPOKESMAN SAYS UKRAINIAN FORCES HAD TRACKED RUSSIAN ARMOURED COLUMN AFTER IT CROSSED BORDER INTO UKRAINE
The result…
The Ruble snapped lower but is recovering..
But stocks knew better?
Chart: bloomberg
Reuters reports,
Ukrainian artillery destroyed a “significant” part of a Russian armoured column that crossed into Ukraine during the night, President Petro Poroshenko told British Prime Minister David Cameron on Friday, according to the presidential website.
Separately, a Ukrainian military spokesman said Ukrainian forces had tracked the Russian armoured column as soon as it crossed onto Ukrainian soil.”Appropriate actions were undertaken and a part of it no longer exists,” military spokesman Andriy Lysenko told journalists.
Here is Ukraine President’s statement:
President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko had a phone conversation with Prime Minister of Great Britain David Cameron.
The parties coordinated their actions on the response to the information regarding the entry of Russian military machines to the territory of Ukraine that has been clearly witnessed by international journalists, particularly of “Guardian” newspaper. The President informed that the given information was trustworthy and confirmed because the majority of that machines had been eliminated by the Ukrainian artillery at night.
The British Prime Minister once again reaffirmed his strong and gradual support to Ukraine and the actions of the President. He also asked about the issue on humanitarian assistance for Luhansk. The President informed on recent developments. He stressed that the Ukrainian part of the international humanitarian assistance in the framework of the Red Cross mission was on its way to Luhansk.
The President expressed concern over the situation on the border, particularly, over the fact that the inflow of Russian arms and military machines in Ukraine through the open part of the border continued.
The parties discussed international efforts for the dialogue on the possibility to settle the situation in the Donbas and the prospects of enhancing military-technical cooperation.
David Cameron informed that Great Britain was ready to provide financial assistance to Ukraine in the framework of the UN humanitarian assistance.
With as much forewarning the arrival of the convoy generated perhaps this was a bit of “bait and switch” – a sacrificial lamb sort of thing?
Ukraine Says It ‘Destroyed’ Part of Armed Convoy From Russia
By Daryna Krasnolutska and Scott Rose – Aug 15, 2014
Ukraine said its troops attacked and partially destroyed a column of armed vehicles that had crossed the border from Russian territory, while Russia said it was concerned about an attack on another convoy carrying aid.
Ukrainian government troops engaged the vehicles that had arrived overnight through a rebel-held section of the border, Andriy Lysenko, a spokesman for the country’s military, told reporters in Kiev today. Ukrainian soldiers continue to come under shelling, including rounds fired from Russia, he said.
The government in Kiev has for months said that separatist rebels in its easternmost regions are receiving support from Russia, which backs them with artillery fire. Russia has repeatedly denied any involvement in the Ukrainian unrest. The Foreign Ministry in Moscow said it was concerned about potential attempts to disrupt the humanitarian convoy and repeated a call for a cease-fire to allow for aid delivery.
The incursion last night isn’t seen by Ukraine as a new development or a possible start of an invasion by Russia, Defense Ministry spokesman Leonid Matyukhin said by phone earlier. The vehicles were painted white to camouflage the operation as a peacekeeping mission, he said.
Putin Call
The standoff is adding to unease over plans by Russia, which has about 275 trucks parked near its western border loaded with what it says is humanitarian aid for rebel-held areas in eastern Ukraine. European Union governments warned Russia against using humanitarian missions as cover to bring troops into Ukraine, expressing frustration at the Kremlin’s refusal to heed calls to de-escalate the conflict.
Russian President Vladimir Putin, under increasing international pressure for allegedly supporting separatists in Ukraine, pledged during a visit to Crimea yesterday that he would work to halt the conflict.
The conflict is coming to a head as Ukrainian government forces push to dislodge pro-Russian insurgents from their strongholds of Luhansk and Donetsk. The authorities in Kiev have been saying for months that the separatist rebels are receiving reinforcements from Russian territory.
Russia has only deployed forces to patrol its side of the frontier and its troops didn’t cross into Ukraine, the state-run news agency RIA Novosti reported, citing the FSB security service’s border guard division. Major General Igor Konashenkov, a spokesman for the Russian Defense Ministry, declined to comment.
JJ3 sent me this Reuters release. Check out the bold faced lie in the report. Gold had been down $20 prior to reports of the attack. It immediately rebounded by $10. Reuters reported that it fell after the news. LIES LIES LIES
Ukrainian forces engage Russian troops on Ukraine soil
Maxim Shemeto | Reuters
Russian military personnel sit atop armoured vehicles outside Kamensk-Shakhtinsky, Rostov Region, August 15, 2014.
A Ukrainian military spokesman said Friday that Ukraine forces have engaged a Russian armored column on Ukrainian soil and “part of it no longer exists.”
When news broke of the fighting, U.S. markets immediately turned downward.
Bond yields fell, as tensions renewed. Gold prices also fell on the news.
German Stocks Give Up Week’s Gains As Bund Yields Plunge To Record Lows
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/15/2014 11:47 -0400
News of the Ukrainian destruction of part of a Russian military convoy sent European stocks (and bond yields) plunging. German DAX futures lost all the gains from the US close last Friday as 2Y bonds closed at -1bps and 10Y bunds at a record low 96bps. European equity indices all lost significant ground on the news today but generally held on to some gains on the week. Peripheral bond spreads pressed wider today but ended the week lower (Spain -5bps, Portugal -25bps). High yield spreads jumped over 20bps on the news. Europe’s VIX soared over 20 today (from 16 earlier).
German stocks were hit hard, but the periphery higher beta indices like Portugal slammed lower…
To clarify, this was NOT the 300 or so white-painted trucks carrying civilian relief supplies. This was a different, unrelated smaller column of a few dozen armored vehicles, probably heading in for military assistance purposes.
But regardless, Putin isn’t going to ignore this. Whether he takes offense, or if it was a deliberate provocation to get a military reaction to be used to justify a Russian military effort, either way this suggests things will heat up.
World War III begins in 2017…
I’ve already written the book.
There has to be advanced plans for this outcome, how could Putin have missed this.
James…WWIII will start after the fall of the PIIGS, the replacement of the dollar as the world currency and the crash of our economy . A war started by dictator “Short Stuff ” in N Korea….may be but I doubt it .
Very interesting article about Ukraine from a Dutch journalist.
http://www.unz.com/article/the-ukraine-corrupted-journalism-and-the-atlanticist-faith/
Russia Responds: Ukraine Statement On Convoy “Provocation”, Seeks To Aggravate Conflict, Drag In Russia
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/15/2014 12:52 -0400
All morning we have been waiting for some Russian response to the announced, if so far unconfirmed, attacked by Ukraine on a Russian “military convoy”. We got it moments ago. From Bloomberg:
UKRAINE SEEKS TO AGGRAVATE CONFLICT, DRAG IN RUSSIA: ZAKHAROVA
RUSSIA FOREIGN MINISTRY SPOKESWOMAN ZAKHAROVA COMMENTS BY PHONE
UKRAINE’S STATEMENTS ON ARMED CONVOY `PROVOCATION’: ZAKHAROVA
And remember what we said not even an hour ago: “as a reminder this is first and foremost a war of relentless propaganda on all sides”, well Russia seems to agree:
UKRAINE’S REPORT ON CONVOY PART OF INFORMATION WAR: ZAKHAROVA
Time for the CIA to unleash the YouTube clips. And while we are waiting, perhaps Ukraine can finally release those MH-17 air traffic control recordings its secret police confiscated a month ago, and which the entire world forgot about?
Washington Chokes Truth With Lies — Paul Craig Roberts
Are Western propagandists fooling anyone but themselves?
The latest absurdity coming out of Ukraine, the EU and Washington is that the humanitarian aid that Russia and the Red Cross are trucking into the former Russian territories that comprise eastern Ukraine is a trick, a deception, a pretext for Russia’s invasion forces. Such a preposterous lie tells us that Western propagandists have no respect whatsoever for the intelligence of Western peoples.
Even a moron should understand that if Russia wants to send military forces into Ukraine, Russia doesn’t need any pretext, much less a joint humanitarian venture with the Red Cross. The eastern Ukraine, following Crimea’s lead, has already voted both independence from Kiev and in favor of rejoining Russia. If Russia needed an excuse, the decisions by the eastern Ukrainians made months ago suffice. But Russia needs no excuse to rescue Russians from being slaughtered by Washington’s stooges like Palestinians in Gaza.
By its inaction, the Russian government is providing Washington’s vassal states in Europe time to comprehend that Washington, not Russia, is the problem, and that Washington intends for the cost of its conflict with Russia to fall on Europeans.
The opposition from Washington, Washington’s EU vassals, and Washington’s stooges in Kiev to the inflow of humanitarian aid is due to the West’s desperate attempt to keep the world from knowing about the massive destruction by Washington and its stooges of civilian lives, housing, and infrastructure in those former Russian territories who are directly threatened by the Russophobic extremists that Washington has installed in power in Kiev.
The Western presstitute media has added yet another failure to its long inglorious history by failing to report the atrocities inflicted on a people who see no future for themselves in a country ruled by murderous Russophobic criminals installed in power by Washington.
The demented NATO generals, Pentagon chief, and US senators are spreading hysteria about a looming Russian invasion not only of Ukraine but also of the Baltics, Poland, indeed, all of Europe. This hysteria is engulfing the West despite the total lack of evidence of any sign whatsoever of Russian preparations or motives for such invasions. The lie is being spread by Washington that Putin intends to reconstitute the Soviet Empire. This is the same Putin who had the former Russian province of Georgia in his hands and let it go.
Washington’s propaganda is working. Polls reveal that a majority of Americans, who should be awake by now after being lied to about Afghanistan, Iraq, Somalia, Libya, Syria, and Iran, have again, in their infinite gullibility, fallen victim to the propaganda and regard Russia as a threat.
Among the misinformed and propagandized American population, the question of the day is: “How are we going to stop the Russians?” Thus has the corrupt and deceitful Obama regime again prepared Americans for war.
The hope for peace is that the Russian counter-sanctions, a response to the sanctions against Russia that Washington forced its European vassals to implement, will end up falling on the deluded American taxpayers. The Polish government has demanded that Washington purchase the apples and agricultural products that Washington has made impossible for Poland to sell to Russia. As Poland is Washington’s choice for the US missile base directed at Russia, the Polish government has leverage. Once Washington gives in to Poland, Washington will be faced with similar demands from hard-hit Greece and Austria and from the rest of Europe to compensate Europeans for the costs that Washington’s sanctions have imposed on its vassal populations.
The fraud perpetuated on the world by the United States in the 21st century is extraordinary. Nothing comparable has ever been witnessed in history. Not only are there the frauds of the numerous wars (Afghanistan, Iraq, Somalia, Iraq, Syria, Ukraine, almost Iran and Washington’s illegal military actions within the borders of Pakistan and Yemen, but also the vast financial frauds perpetuated on the world. Among the costs of Wall Street’s frauds are the European debt crisis, the infringements of national sovereignty of European countries by the IMF bailouts of sovereign debt, and the impoverishment of “rescued” Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal, and Ireland, along with Eastern Europe.
One day the Europeans will wake up. When they do, they will realize that Washington does nothing for them except to protect them from a non-existent “Russian threat,” while imposing dramatic costs upon them by employing Europeans as levies in Washington’s war for hegemony over the world. Sooner or later Europeans must realize that this role assigned to them by Washington is not in their interest and leads directly to World War III in which Europeans will be the first casualties.
Damn! And just as Obomba got things smoothed over in iRock.
Someone Is Lying: Russia Defense Ministry Says There Was No Military Column In East Ukraine
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/15/2014 13:14 -0400
And just like that the disinformation war goes full retard:
RUSSIAN DEFENCE MINISTRY SAYS THERE WAS NO RUSSIAN MILITARY COLUMN THAT CROSSED INTO EASTERN UKRAINE – RIA
RUSSIA SAYS UKRAINE STATEMENTS BASED ON `SOME FANTASIES’: RIA
STATEMENTs BASED ON FANTASIES SHOULDN’T BE THE SUBJECT OF SERIOUS DISCUSSION: RIA
And the full google-translated RIA article:
No Russian military convoy that allegedly crossed the Russian-Ukrainian border, does not exist, said Friday the Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Major-General Igor Konashenkov.
“In the Russian Defense Ministry denied reports of alleged” extermination “Ukrainian military” Russian military convoy, “which allegedly crossed the eve of the Russian-Ukrainian border,” – said the Russian defense ministry.
“No Russian military convoy, which allegedly crossed the Russian-Ukrainian border by night or by day – exists. And it would be best if the Ukrainian artillery destroyed some phantom, instead of refugees or their own troops,” – said the official representative of the Russian Defense Ministry, General -Major Igor Konashenkov.
“Such statements are based on some kind of fantasy, or rather assumptions journalists should not be the subject of serious discussion by senior officials of any country”, – the report says.
What is happening in Ukraine and New Russia
Mass anti-government protests began in the south-eastern regions of Ukraine in late February 2014. They were a response to local residents on the violent change of power in the country and the subsequent attempt to cancel the Verkhovna Rada of the law granting the Russian language the status of regional. Center of opposition pro-Russian citizens with the authorities in Kiev became the Donbass. About how the conflict evolved in the south-east of Ukraine, read in the chronicleof RIA Novosti.
Surely the Ukraine president, who already confirmed to David Cameron that the Russian column was mostly “eliminated” will be releasing a YouTube clip with the proof momentarily.
Martin Armstrong Warns “We Are Witnessing The Collapse Of Democracy”
Submitted by Martin Armstrong via Armstrong Economics blog,
Part of the war cycle is just the general feeling or attitude shifts due to economics. We seem to be headed for such a fateful turn.
The police domestically have turned militaristic.
This is a very serious issue far beyond what most people would even guess. It tends to show the changing attitudes within society.
Couple this with Obama who seems to think he was elected to start a war. We are approaching a serious turning point that may reshape the world as did 1932 following the economic trend of the Great Depression.
The year 1932 saw Mao come to power in China. In Germany, Hitler came to power. FDR came to power in the United States. Even in Japan, the seeds of war were planted with the May 15 Incident, in which Prime Minister Tsuyoshi Inukai was assassinated by young military officers in an attempted coup. The killing spread fear among Japan’s liberal politicians and strengthened the militarists, who eventually led the country into the catastrophic Pacific War.
1932, which was also the low in the markets from 1929. The year 2007 began the changing process and we should be looking ahead now [for] the war cycle will turn upward.
We are witnessing the collapse of democracy or to put it in the proper perspective – the right of the people to vote even in a republic. Europe is hell-bent on removing any democratic process because Brussels believes they know best and the people are just too stupid to know what is best for them.
So 2007 marked the beginning of shift in attitude.
If this was a “Russian Column” one wonders whether this too was a distraction strategy for something larger? Or was this “Russian Column” so conveniently photographed simply a suitably repainted Ukrainian column?
REAL military incursions are just NOT going to be in areas where the local population can produce ANY evidence. REAL covert incursions will be just that – COVERT, i.e. NO-ONE is going to be aware of their goings-on.
So, was this another case of Western-initiated deception? the “convoy” being first driven into Russia, then “conveniently photographed” on its return? Or was is a real distraction manoeuvre by the Russians – as a over for something far more substantial?
We’ll see.
Did Ukraine Attack Its Own Tanks? White House “Can’t Confirm Russian Convoy Was Destroyed By Kiev”
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/15/2014 19:07 -0400
While today’s trading session was marked by news which at first blush correlated with what may be the 2014 equivalent of the Archduke Ferdinand shooting, in retrospect the newsflow made painfully little sense. Let’s recap:
Yesterday afternoon, two UK reporters working for the Guardian and Telegraph, supposedly located by the border in east Ukraine, reported that they were “eyewitnesses” as a convoy of military trucks crossed the Russian border into the breakaway Donetsk republic, aka Ukraine. While there have been photos of the military truck that have accompanied the Russian humantiarian convoy on Russian territory, there has so far been no proof, aside from said eyewitness reports, confirming Russian military vehicles entered or were in Ukraine.
This morning Ukraine military’s spokesman, Andriy Lysenko, shocked the world when newswire reported that Ukraine forces had attacked an armed convoy from Russia, and “destroyed” a part of it. This was subsequently reiterated by the president of Ukraine himself who said that “the given information was trustworthy and confirmed because the majority of that machines had been eliminated by the Ukrainian artillery at night”, and by the secretary-general of NATO, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, who said that the alliance had detected an “incursion” of vehicles from Russia last night, adding that “what we have seen last night is the continuation of what we have seen for some time.” Alas, as in the case above, just more verbal reports, with zero actual evidence.
Shortly thereafter, Russia responded when the Russian defense ministry said that there was no Russian military column that crossed into Eastern Ukraine, and that the above reports are based on “some fantasies.”
This is where the breakdown of logic occurs, because for Russia to make such a formal statement it clearly implies that Russia believes there is no evidence of destruction of a Russian convoy in Ukraine territory, something which obviously would exist if indeed as Ukraine’s president had claimed, the “majority of the machines had been eliminated.”
If true, it also implies that either Ukraine had fabricated the entire story, and certainly the part about the destruction of the convoy and by extension that Russians had ever entered into East Ukraine. Furthermore, that would also suggest that the reports of the British reporters were also a fabrication.
Unless, of course, there is evidence, in which case the credibility of the both the Guardian and Telegraph reporters can be preserved, Ukraine can not be accused of fabricating a story to suit what some may say its own warmongering ambitions, and the onus is on Russia to explain why it lied about there being no invasion.
More to the point, the onus is on Ukraine to present some evidence, in fact any evidence, of a destroyed Russian military convoy instead of merely building upon a story conceived by the two UK media outlets, because if Ukraine indeed has no evidence, then its story falls apart and what’s worse, the credibility and reputation of its government, of NATO and certainly of the UK press would be in tatters.
So what other possibility is there? Well, one that is all too unpalatable for Ukraine, namely that in its excitement to blow something up, it may have well destroyed some of its own military vehicles. A possible lead to such a turn of events comes from this Interfax report citing the leadership of the breakaway Donetsk People’s Republic.
The leadership of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic has dismissed the Ukrainian government’s statement on destroying a convoy of what appeared to be Russian armored vehicles in eastern Ukraine.
“We haven’t received any armored vehicles from Russia. No Russian units, including Russian armored vehicles, have crossed the border. Hence, no Russian armored vehicles could have been destroyed,” DPR First Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Purgin told Interfax on Friday evening.
Purgin claimed that, on the contrary, the militias destroyed about 100 Ukrainian armored vehicles.
“A lot of Ukrainian armored vehicles were destroyed today, 7 at one place, 12 at another. And the same all over the DPR territory. A total of about 100 of them,” Purgin said.
The implication is clear: while 100 or so Ukraine armored vehicles may or may not have been destroyed, one wonders if indeed the Ukraine army was responsible in “aiding” the separatists with what would appear to be a friendly-fire incident?
But perhaps the most damning evidence comes from none other than the White House itself, which according to CNN just admitted that while it accuses Moscow of “incursions” it can’t confirm the convoy was destroyed by Kiev.
Perhaps for the simplest reason that there is no evidence to help with the confirmation process?
Which is rather unpleasant, because as explained above, without confirmation of a destroyed convoy, the whole story falls apart as merely yet another unprecedented warmongering fabrication, one involving not only the Kiev regime, but NATO and the UK press as well!
What is worse, is that if indeed the specter arises that Ukraine is lying about an event that nearly gave the market a heart attack on the belief that a new international war involving Russia may be about to break out, was Ukraine also lying about flight MH-17. And else may the Kiev regime been lying about?
WWIII;
Not yet. Thery are still engaged in foreplay. Be patient!
The money shot won’t be for a little bit.
As fo all hell breaking loose, it’s about time.
What I Ilike about the Obama administration, the Republicans, and the Neocons is that they’re willing to keep pushing the Russians, the Chinese, and recalcitrant. states like Malaysia
I think that the Russians and the Chinese can’t stand up to us now. Their actions indicate it. Now, before our enemies get stronger, is the time to act. Crush them when we’re strong and they’re weak.
Remember that God’s Chosen People and the United States have killed, conquered, and never quailed at doing what’s necessary to keep control.
The folks running the show have literally lost their marbles at this point. The Ukies are doing everything they can to provoke a war with Ruskies, because that’s the only way they get more daily operating money from the clowns in Brussels.
Somethings gotta give here pretty soon.
RE
Olga said:
“With as much forewarning the arrival of the convoy generated perhaps this was a bit of “bait and switch” – a sacrificial lamb sort of thing?”
Yes, the ‘bait’ analogy makes perfect sense. Add deliberate provocation into the mix, along with
a golfing clown versus a Chess grandmaster, and we have disaster in the making.
Insane economic sanctions via EU, US and Russia serves no useful purpose and harms every nation involved in the insanity.
____________________________________________________________________________________
Administrator says: Washington Chokes Truth With Lies — Paul Craig Roberts
“Among the misinformed and propagandized American population, the question of the day is: “How are we going to stop the Russians?” Thus has the corrupt and deceitful Obama regime again prepared Americans for war.”
How true. EU is teetering on precipice of economic catastrophe. EU and US sanctions against Russia just shoved Poland, Finland, etc… over the economic cliff. Watch, as Domino effect gathers momentum.
RE is pretty close.
It will begin when the Russians say it will begin. Not before. Or …. ever.
Maggie,
Wolferen article is spot on – Thanks
TBP,
I do not believe there was an incursion and Keiv is just stiring the war snot. If Russia acts, it will be total and swift.
It seems this is nothing but ONE HUGE FUCKING LIE.
========================================= =
A couple of short pointers about the situation in the eastern Ukraine
Guys, I came home late after a pretty crazy day and I can’t write a proper SITREP, if only because of the still very confused situation in the eastern Ukraine. Still, I want to share a couple of short pointers with you.
The “destroyed Russian armor column”: Poroshenko vs Carl Sagan
I cannot prove a negative. But then, I am not the one making the claim. The Ukies and a few British reporters did. And they presented ZERO proof. As Carl Sagan so well put it “extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence” and the notion that Russia would send in only 23 armored vehicles, with no protection, in broad daylight is quite extraordinary. As is the notion that in a region chock-full of Russian military units nobody would have taken any action to save the column.
So even if a Russian unit got into the Ukraine by mistaken (at the age of GPS and GLONASS, yet another extraordinary claim!) the notion that those who sent it did nothing to protect or extract their own men is also extraordinary. As for the British reporters, they don’t even have a cellphone to show even bad images, maybe taken from far away? They have nothing at all? Quite extraordinary again.
Last, but not least, there is one more extraordinary element to this story, but one which I do believe. I just heard that the British Foreign Office summoned the Russian ambassador to the UK over this Russian incursion. Excuse me -but since when is the Ukraine part of the British Empire of Commonwealth? What business does the Foreign Office have in this matter?
I am quite sure that there are *lots* of destroyed armored columns all over the Donbass. In fact, the Resistance always makes a point of filming them. I just came across this one today: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bV5Y7OaDBng (sorry, no translation yet). So maybe the Ukies did show some burned armor to the British journalists. Ukie armor, of course.
As for Poroshenko, he is desperately trying to convince the world that the Russians are about to invade, possibly by using their humanitarian convoy. What is sure is that until I see some rock solid evidence, with a credible scenario explaining how this could have happened, I will continue to side with Carl Sagan and dismiss this story completely.
Kind regards to all,
The Saker
http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.com/
The change of the Novorussian leadership
Unlike the previous story, this one is also quite extraordinary, but it comes with plenty of extraordinary evidence: there is no doubt possible about the fact that all the key figures in Novorussia have been replaced. Strelkov is alive and apparently not under duress. What could explain this?
As much as I hate baseless speculation, I will say that two theories seem to make sense to me. I present a summary of both of them here for discussion’s sake, and I am at this moment endorsing neither one.
Theory One: a “grand deal” is in the works.
Under this theory, some key individuals in the Kremlin and the Ukie oligarch Rinat Akhmetov are trying to stop the war and hammer out a deal in which Novorussia would remain part of a single Ukrainian state, but with very large autonomy, especially in cultural, linguistic, political and economic terms. Some speculate that the Ukraine would not join NATO.
This theory is similar to the “secret Putin-Merkel deal” theory also put forward recently. The strongest argument for this theory is that from the onset of the conflict Moscow’s #1 goal has always been a unitary but neutral and stable Ukraine, but not a russophobic, Fascist or NATO one. Russia neither wants nor needs the Ukraine or even the Donbass. What Russia needs is a stable, predictable and safe neighbor on its eastern border.
The biggest problem with this theory is that for the majority of those who took up arms against the Nazi junta nothing short from a complete separation from Kiev is acceptable. This does not, however, mean that such a solution is also unacceptable to most of the people in Novorussia a majority of whom have not taken up arms.
There is only one actor which has the means to conduct a survey of majority public opinion in this war zone, and that is the Russia state. Thus, I submit that only the Kremlin knows what a majority of Novorussians want or would settle for.
Finally, let me be clear here. We are not, repeat, NOT discussing any type of “sellout” or “betrayal” or “backstabbing” of Novorussia by Putin. Yes, all the Putin-bashers (paid or not) will present that like this, but even a close friend of Strelkov like Pavel Gubarev has unambiguously stated that there was zero chance of that happening. What we are talking about here is a compromise deal with would probably be acceptable to some parties (most non-fighting Novorussians, the Kremlin, Rinat Akhmetov, the EU) and non-acceptable by others (Kiev, Uncle Sam, most fighting Novorussians).
Theory Two: a “grand counter-attack” is in the works.
Contrary to a lot of comments I have seen posted here over the pas few days, I see exactly zero reasons to believe that the Resistance is about to be crushed. In fact, from all the reports I have seen, it is the Ukie sides which at tremendous costs has achieved exactly nothing. Furthermore, the re-taking of Saur Mogila by the Ukie forces might well result in yet another cauldron for them. Add to this the very persistent rumors and hints by various commanders on the ground that a big counter-offensive is in the works and I get feeling that the Ukies might well have reached a breaking point.
Please be careful to notice that I said that such a hypothesis is consistent with the available data, I did not make a prediction that this will happen. However, in this hypothesis what happened is that all the key Russians-from-Russia figures have been replaced by local, Russians-from-Donbass people. The rationale would be to avoid the impression that “Russian forces are invading the Ukraine” and to show, instead, that “Ukrainian forces are liberating their own land”.
The best argument in favor of this hypothesis is that if the Resistance was to go on the offensive it would need a more complex headquarters and that this is why Strelkov was “promoted” to “chief of staff” of the Novorussian military. The best argument against this hypothesis is that I simply don’t see the Resistance which yesterday was only a militia of volunteers become an effective military force capable of operational-level actions. Now, if there really is nobody between the Ukie troops in the Donbass and Kiev, maybe such a move could be achieved by a constant series of tactical-level engagements, but I just don’t see that happening.
As I said above, I am endorsing neither theory at this point, it is too early to call and there are way too many “unknown unknowns” (to borrow Rumsefeld expression) to make categorical statements. But I will say that I find the first theory substantially more plausible than the second one.
The half-empty trucks
That is a simple one. The Russian convoy of trucks is composed of trucks roughly loaded at 50% of max capacity to make sure that no truck stops in route or has any difficulty getting through very bad terrain. It was planned this way and the Russians announced that on day 1.
A nationalist Maidan against Putin this fall
I am not a big fan of the Dugin-Fedorov-Limonov crowd because they tend to do what I call “headline baiting”: they always predict the most extreme events (such as a US nuclear attack on Russia) and they always get the most attention form the general public.
The case in point is this notion of a nationalist backlash against Putin. First, you will notice that this very idea implies that Putin would betray Russian national interest. He might do that tomorrow morning. But as of right now there is absolutely zero evidence for that. Again, I would never place my faith in the hands of a politicians, and I don’t want people to “trust” or, even less so, “believe in” Putin. But I am saying that the theory that tomorrow morning Putin will “sell out” Novorussia or “betray” the Russian national interests has as much factual or logical basis as the theory that tomorrow Putin will join the Hare-Krishnas: zero. There is a HUGE difference between “possible” and “probable” or “likely” and while “possible” requires very little, if any, substantiation, it is amateurish and often irresponsible to call “probable” something which is only “possible”.
Second, right now Putin’s rating is at a stratospheric 87% – higher than ever before – and even his way of dealing with the anti-Russian sanctions has made him more popular than before.
Third, there are many lies and inanities written by the MSM about “Putin the Dictator” but one thing is true: Putin has complete control over the Russian security services and the Russian security services are more powerful now than ever before.
Lastly, how can one seriously think that the Russian people have seen the horrors of the Ukie Maidan only to start one of their own. This is utter nonsense. My strictly personal advice would be this: take anything Dugin-Fedorov-Limonov have to say with a couple of cubic meters of salt.
The countdown to Dmitri Orlov’s stages 4 and 5
One more thing. All these topics are just like the proverbial trees hiding the forest. The real story is that we are living a countdown to a huge explosion in Banderastan. We all know that the rump-Ukraine is broke, but we forget what that means and what this really means. Dmitri Orlov, in his absolutely fantastic book “The Five States of Collapse” explains that collapses happen in the following sequence:
Stage 1: Financial collapse. Faith in “business as usual” is lost. The future is no longer assumed to resemble the past in any way that allows risk to be assessed and financial assets to be guaranteed. Financial institutions become insolvent; savings are wiped out and access to capital is lost.
Stage 2: Commercial collapse. Faith that “the market shall provide” is lost. Money is devalued and/or becomes scarce, commodities are hoarded, import and retail chains break down and widespread shortages of survival necessities become the norm.
Stage 3: Political collapse. Faith that “the government will take care of you” is lost. As official attempts to mitigate widespread loss of access to commercial sources of survival necessities fail to make a difference, the political establishment loses legitimacy and relevance.
Stage 4: Social collapse. Faith that “your people will take care of you” is lost, as local social institutions, be they charities or other groups that rush in to fill the power vacuum, run out of resources or fail through internal conflict.
Stage 5: Cultural collapse. Faith in the goodness of humanity is lost. People lose their capacity for “kindness, generosity, consideration, affection, honesty, hospitality, compassion, charity.” Families disband and compete as individuals for scarce resources. The new motto becomes “May you die today so that I can die tomorrow.”
By the way, Orlov correctly notes that the collapse of the Soviet Union stopped at Stage 3. Now think about the rump-Ukraine lead by the Nazi junta in Kiev. It is already more or less at Stage 3 and the economic collapse has not really made landfall yet!
Sure, the junta’s western patrons are keeping the Hrivna artificially high (have you ever seen the currency of a country in the midst of a civil war remain more or less stable? Of course not! The western banks are buying that useless toilet paper for political reasons!) and fake short term loans can give the illusion that “so far so good”, but the reality is catching up really, really fast.
Within the next couple of months Banderastan will full enter Stages 4 and 5 of Orlov’s collapse model and then things will get really ugly. At this point the introduction of some kind of dictatorship is simply inevitable. Either that, or a “Somalization”.
In either case, this is really going to be hell on earth and this is were the real focus should be right now: how to prepare for the absolutely inevitable explosion.
As for the EU, the Russian sanctions are beginning to bite. Badly. Hence more and more EU politicians are frantically trying to climb out of the hole they dug for themselves. The really weird thing is that Russia has, so far, avoided to enter a recession in spite of the outflow of speculative capital. Oh sure, eventually, factors such as the recession in the EU, the war in the Ukraine and western sanctions will hurt Russia, but it is quite remarkable so far Russia is doing better than predicted.
Bottom line: very soon the rump-Ukraine will either completely explode or see a new regime, this time openly dictatorial. The EU economies are likely to begin really hurting and the combination of these two phenomena will leave the USA without any viable puppet to use against Russia. Things might get so ugly that we might even see a moment in which the EU will welcome a Russian intervention in the Ukraine.
That’s it for tonight. Hopefully the very confused and murky situation will become clearer soon at which point I will try to sit down and write a halfway decent SITREP.
Kind regards to all,
The Saker
http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.com/
Egor Prosvirnin, the chief editor of a Russian news site, shows us the extent of the anger in Russia caused by the dangerous mixture of Washington’s broken promises with the vicious propaganda war against Russia and the German government’s complicity.
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The Russian appeal to Germany
My name is Egor Prosvirnin, I am the chief editor of the Russian site http://www.sputnikipogrom.com which advocates European values. I’ve heard that one of the aspects of life that Europeans, and Germans especially,cherish is history. If we were to recall recent history, we would remember that a vast army of 300,000 Soviet troops along with 5,000 tanks, 1,500 aircraft and 10,000 artillery pieces (including tactical nuclear weapons) simply left the then just-united Germany without firing a shot.
It was an operation unprecedented in scope and brevity, when the entire Soviet army withdrew literally to open fields. Tens of thousands of Soviet officers, obeying the orders of the supreme command, went from their warm barracks to live in moldy tents set up in the middle of sodden snow-covered fields. In many instances along with their families.
For what?
For hope. Hope that the dark pages of history between our two countries were finally and forever past. Hope that we no longer have to keep armies of tanks in the center of Europe, and that Europe would respect and consider our interests. Hope that in a united Germany we would have a good friend and ally, with whom Russia would fulfill the dream of Charles de Gaulle of a united Europe stretching from Lisbon to Vladivostok.
When our armies were leaving Germany, our soldiers were told that Germany had recognized and redeemed its mistakes of the past, there were no undecided issues with Germany, and that we would no longer hear German voices calling for retribution against Russia, therefore we did not need our Army of tanks positioned in the middle of Europe.
From that moment, Russians and Germans were friends, and friends have no need for vast armadas of armor and tanks. Russians should cease being afraid of a united Germany and disarm.
And we disarmed. And for 20 years we felt that we did the right thing, that the past is forgotten forever, and that the Germans appreciated how readily we closed all the bases and brought all the troops home (although there are American bases in Germany to date). In good times our friends know us; in troubled times we come to know our friends; and troubled times did come via the Ukrainian crisis. It became clear that the Germans do not remember the good. It turned out that the Germans did not learn the lessons of history, it seems that the Germans viewed the voluntary dismantling and withdrawal of our war machine not as humanism and goodwill, but weakness.
It turns out that when the Americans spoke loudly and sharply with the German chancellor, whom they for all these years have kept under surveillance like some sticky-fingered housemaid, the entire German society leaped up like a submissive dog running obediently to its American master…. even when the conflict with Russia goes against German economic and political interests. It seems therefore that if one blunts their sword, removes their armor, ceases the Soviet-era preparations for World War III, and is reaching out to the Germans, the Germans will spit in your extended hand at the first opportunity.
It turns out that Russians are yet again “Untermensch”, who can be savaged with impunity on the pages of the German press and punitive sanctions demanded from the rostrum of the Bundestag, while disallowing an opportunity for Russia to openly and equitably argue its case. It turns out, however, that the Ukrainian government can without any liability prohibit the Russian language, jail Russian activists, target residential neighborhoods with volleys of artillery, kill thousands of civilians who happen to be mostly Russian – and that’s OK. It is OK because it’s a “democracy”, and it suits Germany because Russians are “Untermensch”, because Russians are Jews whose blood for Germans is worth nothing. And what’s more, for trying to defend themselves, for attempting to return fire against the Ukrainian armed forces, Russians should be punished, publicly harassed, their will to resist broken, and then forced into an international Russian ghetto.
Then burn that ghetto, as the Trade Unions building in Odessa was burned with 49 pro-Russian protesters inside. Do you know how the Ukrainian social networks responded to this holocaust? By referring to the dead as “Colorado Shishkebabs”(*) – this is what tens of thousands of people in the Ukrainian social networks wrote, including indecent sayings copied into photos of the charred bodies.
We are again the subhumans, we are again nothing but animals that Ukrainian Nazis may kill with impunity, creating a “Russian-frei Ukraina”. According to the data collected by Human Rights Watch, only during this past July the Ukrainians killed one thousand one hundred fifty PEACEFUL RUSSIANS in the eastern part of the country, and these killings continue daily. Where are your protests, Germany? Where are your sanctions against Ukraine? Where is your vaunted humanism that you profess to have learned since 1945 by recognizing the errors from your past?
Saur-Mogila, which is located on strategic heights and is a memorial to Russian soldiers who died there 70 years ago during a fierce battle with the Wehrmacht, has once again been stormed. This time by the Ukrainian battalion “Azov” wearing their Wolfsangel patches, a symbol of the 2nd, 4th and 34th SS divisions, and you are silent! Russian militia are ducking behind the granite statues of Soviet soldiers from neo-Nazi bullets fired by “the National Guard” of Ukraine, and you dare to agree with the American nonsense about “Russian aggression”! Ukrainians shoot cities with ballistic missiles, leaving craters in places homes once stood, and you impose sanctions not against Ukraine but against Russia!
Again, troops are killing unarmed Russian civilians, and you are debating whether it is time to start delivering weapons to these murderers so that they can kill more Russians? All of your vaunted “politics of memory” and “learning from the past” is simply a pile of dog shit, as again before your eyes unarmed civilians are butchered, and you applaud this and promise these Ukrainian murderers fresh financing.
You have not learned humanism, you Germans. You have not learned responsibility. You have not learned to resist Evil and tell that Evil clearly to its face, “No, you are the killer, I will not help you, you must stop the killing immediately.” You have not learned to be a responsible, independent, free people, who are capable of giving good in return for good.
You are slaves who think good is a weakness.
In 1934, Hitler drove you like sheep, and in 2014 Obama is your shepherd. If tomorrow in Germany, the Americans open a concentration camp for Russians, half of you will immediately submit their curriculum vitaefor jobs as operators of the gas chambers, and your press will start to explain how this camp is patriotic and good for the German economy. It would then follow that killing these Russian “Untermensch”, crafting lampshades out of their skin for daring to resist, and sending this nicely packaged to Washington to please your American ally.
Germans have failed their test. When Evil has returned again to Europe, you do not even attempt to resist it, and immediately fall prostrate at its feet like a slave after the eagerly-awaited, long delayed return of your master. Serve Evil, impose sanctions, support the murder of Russians, supply weapons to the killers of Russians, justify this genocide – the end of your story will be familiar, because Evil cannot win.
I will conclude this text with a popular quote from the famous American stateswoman Ms. Victoria Nuland, who obviously makes the decisions in Ukraine instead of your Chancellor:
“Fuck the EU”.
Like it or not, but admit that the Americans are a smart people capable of accurately determining the “price” of a united Germany and a united Europe.
Regarding the above editorial by Egor Prosvirnin, here are some responses from Germans in Germany. Interesting …
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from Heinz ———– As a German I am ashamed that my government has disposed an elected president and has brought to power a Neo-Nazi junta in another supposedly European country. I find it unbelievable that the Konrad Adenauer foundation and the Heinrich Boell foundation have been financing the violent bogus “pro Europe” groups in Ukraine. In our subservience to the Anglo-Zionist mythology of one sided guilt for WW2 we ahve overlooked that Hitler was sponsored by the same Wall Street , CIA, and London cabal that has been operating death squads in Latin America in the 1970s to 1990s and now in Ukraine. However most Germans today are pro Russian and pro peace. The German media seem to realize now, that they are only speaking for themselves. The arctice appeared in our leading financial daily and is reason for hope: http://www.handelsblatt.com/me…
Best regards
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from Bernhard ———- As another German I like to support Heinz. Many Germans do not agree with Merkel & Co. I wish the russian people, in russia and elsewhere, all the best and a peaceful future for all of us. …… PS: Please, Russia, stop Western Imperialism – in Syria, Ukraine etc. ……… PPS: I think, “good” Germans in the 30′ may have felt like we feel today: Nothing but lies and propaganda in the media and an economic situation that is “good” at the surface, but terrible once you look under the carpet.
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from Günther ———— I second Heinz and Bernhard. It pains me beyond belief what happens these days to the Russian people wherever they may live. If there was a country on this planet that would offer me a passport I am ready to shred my German passport. I am deeply ashamed and angry over the bootlicking of the American imperialists by the German leadership, and indirectly, the German people. But please trust me there still are Germans like Heinz, Bernhard and me who passionately disapprove of the unfair and inhumane policy of the German government, not just in their relationship with Russia but also the Palestinian people.
I left Germany to follow my American girlfriend to her country 26 years ago; from the first week of my residence in the US on I discovered that the picture of the US, painted by the subservient German mainstream media, was nothing but post-war brainwashing propaganda. To me the US regime is the ultimate terrorist state today, selfish; reckless; violent, inside and outside her borders; lying through their teeth whenever given an opportunity – with Germany her little helper. I can’t put in words how disgusted I am! Please forgive us – what you are dealing with are are not free people who stand up against the inhumane policies of their governments; you are dealing with an enslaved crowd of nitwits, Americans and Germans. People, gullible, ignorant. People without a memory and conscience.
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from urs ———– I am very disgusted about how the german government is licking americas arse! I understand that Germany is under their fist, the US is running Germany NOT Merkel, everything is decided in Bruessel, Germany has no say, even if they think they have, they have NOT ! It is high time to free themselves from this totalitarian dictatorship! I don’t consider Americans smart people, Americans are Warmongers and War Criminals invading country after country with false pretences leaving nothing but destruction and death behind them! Open your eyes and you will see!!
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from Barbarossa296 …………. Ich bin Sudetendeutsche. My fatherland is a prisoner of war camp. It has been an occupied country since 1945. Its inhabitants have become accustomed to the cultural, political, and social slavery imposed upon them. Their sense of guilt has been cultivated by their masters to maintain their servitude. Their government is a hoax perpetrated upon them by their American masters. Expect no independent actions from the BRD – it is incapable of doing other than that which Washington D. C. demands. How ironic it would be if it were Russia that finally reestablishes German freedom and independence from the fetters of World War II. Please remember that in this case, the German people have little real say as to the actions of their government – it is a “democracy” in theory only. In reality, it is but a provence of the Anglo-American Empire.
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Lastly this, from an American genius named Robbie ———– What a load of drivell .. So putin has no aspirations to take back countries that he thinks belong in the sphere of influence, there is no political involvement in the murder of Litvinenko.. Like all countries, if you worked harder at solving the difficult issues at home you might not be so interested in publicity drawing, perhaps populist, policies abroad!
http://sputnikipogrom.com/europe/germany/18213/russian-appeal/