Russia is in the process of annexing East Ukraine. Make no mistake about it. Putin doesn’t think NATO or the U.S. has the balls or ability to stop him.
Next move is Obama’s and the feckless European apparatchiks.
One wrong move and we could have World War III on our hands.
The significance of the Russian decision to move the humanitarian convoy into Novorussia
First, the case of Crimea was also a “special case”. The Russian were legally present there and, in the Russian rationale, all the “Polite Armed Men in Green” did was to protect the local population to make it possible for the latter to freely express its will. Only after that will was expressed did Russia agree to formally re-incorporate Crimea into Russia. So from the legal Russian point of view, none of the Russian actions in Crimea included any form of violation of Ukrainian sovereignty. I know, most western analyst will agree, but that is the official Russian stance. And official stances are important because they form the basis for a legal argument.
Second, the aid which Russia has been sending to Novorussia has been exclusively covert. Covert operations, no matter their magnitude, do not form the basis for a legal position. The official position of Moscow has been that not only was there absolutely no military aid to Novorussia, but even when Ukie artillery shells landed inside Russia did the Kremlin authorize any retaliation, again in (official) deference to the Ukrainian national sovereignty.
This time, however, there is no doubt at all that the Russians did deliberately and officially chose to ignore Kiev and move in. Now, in fact, in reality, this is clearly the logically, politically and morally right thing to do. But in legal terms, this clearly a violation of Ukrainian sovereignty. From a legal point of view, the Ukies had the right to keep the Russian convoy at the border for another 10’000 years if they wanted and Russia had no legal right to simply move in. What apparently happened this morning is that the Ukie officials did not even bother showing up, so the Kremlin just said “forget it!” and ordered the trucks in.
Not only did the Russians move in, but they did that without the ICRC whose personnel refused to go because of the lack of security guarantees from Kiev. The Russian response to that lack of security guarantees was a) to order this unarmed convoy in and b) to clearly state in the official statement:
We are warning against any attempts to thwart this purely humanitarian mission which took a long time to prepare in conditions of complete transparency and cooperation with the Ukrainian side and the ICRC. Those who are ready to continue sacrificing human lives to their own ambitions and geopolitical designs and who are rudely trampling on the norms and principles of international humanitarian law will assume complete responsibility for the possible consequences of provocations against the humanitarian relief convoy.
Again, from a logical, political or moral point of view, this is rather self-obvious, but from a legal point of view this is a threat to use force (“complete responsibility for the possible consequences”) inside the putatively sovereign territory of the Ukraine.
The US and their main agent in Kiev, Nalivaichenko, immediately and correctly understood the threat: not only did this convoy bring much needed humanitarian aid to Lugansk, it also provided a fantastic political and legal “cover” for future Russian actions inside Novorussia. And by “actions” I don’t necessarily mean military actions, although that is not clearly and officially possible. I also mean legal actions such as recognizing Novorussia. From their point of view, Obama, Poroshenko, Nalivaichenko are absolutely correct to be enraged, because I bet you that the timing, context and manner in which Russia moved into Novorussia will not result in further sanctions or political consequences. Russia has now officially declared the Ukie national sovereignty as “over” and the EU will probably not do anything meaningful about it.
That, by itself, is a nightmare for Uncle Sam.
Furthermore, I expect the Russian to act with a great deal of restraint. It would be stupid for them to say “okay, now that we violated the territorial integrity of the Ukraine and ignored its sovereignty we might as well bomb the junta forces and move our troops in”. I am quite confident that they will not do that. Yet. For the Russian side, the best thing to do now is to wait. First, the convoy will really help. Second, it will become a headache for the Ukies (bombing this convey would not look very good). Third, this convoy will buy enough time for the situation to become far clearer. What am I referring to here?
The Ukie plan has been to present some major “victory” for the Sunday the 24, when they plan a victory parade in Kiev to celebrate independence day (yup, the US-controlled and Nazi-administered “Banderastan” will celebrate its “independence”… this is both sad and hilarious). Instead, what they have a long streak of *very* nasty defeats during the past 5-6 days or so. By all accounts, the Ukies are getting butchered and, for the first time, even pushed back (if only on a tactical level). That convoy in Luganks will add a stinging symbolical “f**k you!” to the junta in Kiev. It will also exacerbate the tensions between the ruling clique in power, the Right Sector and Dmitri Iarosh and the growing protest movement in western Ukraine.
Bottom line: this is a risky move no doubt, probably brought about by the realization that with water running out in Luganks Putin had to act. Still it is also an absolutely brilliant move which will create a massive headache for the US and its Nazi puppets in Kiev.
The Saker
PS: I heard yesterday evening that Holland has officially announced that it will not release the full info of the flight data and voice recorders of MH17. Thus Holland has now become an official accomplice to the cover-up of this US false-flag operation and to the murder of the passengers of MH17. This is absolutely outrageous and disgusting I and sure hope that the Malaysian government will not allow this. As for Kiev, it is also sitting on the recording of the communications between the Kiev ATC and MH17. Finally, the USA has it all through its own signals intelligence capabilities. So they all know and they are all covering up. Under the circumstances, can anybody still seriously doubt “who done it”?
The endless delays hampering the initial deliveries of the Russian humanitarian relief aid to southeastern Ukraine have become intolerable.
A lorry convoy with many hundreds of tonnes of humanitarian relief aid, urgently needed by the people in these regions, has been standing idle for a week now on the Russian-Ukrainian border. Over this period, the Russian side has made unprecedented efforts in all areas and at all levels in order to complete the required formalities. We have met all conceivable and inconceivable demands of the Ukrainian side and have submitted to the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) exhaustive lists of food, drinking water, medications, essential items and diesel generators due to be delivered to Lugansk, where they are urgently needed by women, children and the elderly. These people are experiencing the horrors of daily artillery attacks and air strikes that have resulted in an increasing number of killed and wounded and destroyed the entire vital infrastructure in the area. Time and again, we met requests to check and recheck the shipment route, to coordinate procedures for the shipment’s delivery, and have signed the required documents with the ICRC. We have provided all essential security guarantees and have ensured similar guarantees on the part of the self-defense forces. These guarantees apply to the Russian convoy as well as other humanitarian relief aid being sent to Lugansk by the Kiev authorities.
At the same time, Kiev has delayed granting its formal consent required by the ICRC for several days, while repeatedly inventing new pretexts and stepping up attacks on Lugansk and Donetsk that involve military aircraft and heavy-duty armored vehicles, targeting residential areas and other civilian facilities. Over the past few days, the Ukrainian side has been launching ballistic missiles, including the deadly Tochka-U missiles, ever more frequently.
On 21 August, the situation appeared to have been resolved when the Ukrainian authorities finally informed the ICRC of their readiness to start clearing humanitarian shipments for prompt delivery to Lugansk. The Ukrainian side officially confirmed its unconditional consent for the convoy to start moving during a phone conversation between the Foreign Affairs Ministers of Russia and Ukraine. On 20 August, customs clearance and border control procedures were launched at the Donetsk checkpoint. On 21 August, however, this process was stopped, with officials citing much more intensive bombardment of Lugansk. In other words, the Ukrainian authorities are bombing the destination and are using this as a pretext to stop the delivery of humanitarian relief aid.
It appears that Kiev has set out to complete its “cleansing” of Lugansk and Donetsk in time for the 24 August Independence Day celebrations. It seems increasingly credible that the incumbent Ukrainian leadership is deliberately delaying the delivery of the humanitarian relief aid until there is nobody left to deliver this aid to. Quite possibly, they hope to achieve this result prior to the planned 26 August meetings in Minsk.
Russia is outraged by the blatant external manipulation of the international experts involved in preparing this operation. An endless succession of contradictory and mutually exclusive signals and messages we have been receiving is a true indication of behind the scenes games for purposes that have nothing to do with accomplishing a set humanitarian objective. Those who are holding the reins and hampering efforts to save human lives, to mitigate the suffering of sick and wounded people neglect the basic principles of society. We have called on the UN Security Council to promptly declare a humanitarian armistice, but these proposals are being invariably blocked by those who pay lip service to universal human values. Last time, this happened on 20 August, when the United States and some Western members of the UNSC declined to issue a statement in support of a ceasefire during the delivery of humanitarian relief aid to Lugansk by Russian and Ukrainian convoys.
We hereby state once again: All the required security guarantees regarding the passage of the humanitarian convoy have been provided. The ICRC has officially recognised these guarantees. The delivery routes are known, and they have been checked by an ICRC mission. The documents have been drawn up. The shipments have long been ready for inspection by Ukrainian border guards and customs officers who have been waiting at the Donetsk checkpoint in the Rostov Region for a week now. The capitals that display heightened concern for the situation in southeastern Ukraine are well aware of this. The endless artificial demands and pretexts have become unconscionable.
It is no longer possible to tolerate this lawlessness, outright lies and inability to reach agreements. All pretexts for delaying the delivery of aid to people in the humanitarian disaster zone have been depleted. The Russian side has decided to act. Our humanitarian relief convoy is setting out towards Lugansk. Naturally, we are ready to allow ICRC officials to escort the convoy and to take part in distributing aid. We hope that representatives of the Russian Red Cross Society will also be able to take part in this mission.
We are warning against any attempts to thwart this purely humanitarian mission which took a long time to prepare in conditions of complete transparency and cooperation with the Ukrainian side and the ICRC. Those who are ready to continue sacrificing human lives to their own ambitions and geopolitical designs and who are rudely trampling on the norms and principles of international humanitarian law will assume complete responsibility for the possible consequences of provocations against the humanitarian relief convoy. (emphasis added by me – the Saker)
We are once again calling on the Ukrainian leadership, as well as the United States and the European Union, which are exerting their influence on Kiev, to promptly launch negotiations in southeastern Ukraine and start complying with the accords formalised in the 17 April 2014 Geneva Statement by Russia, Ukraine, the United States and the EU on stopping the use of force, mitigating the humanitarian situation and immediately launching nationwide dialogue that would involve all Ukrainian regions.
Pentagon Demands Russia Remove Convoy “Immediately” As NYT Reports Russians Firing Artillery In Ukraine
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/22/2014 12:52 -0400
The Russian military has moved artillery units manned by Russian personnel inside Ukrainian territory in recent days and is using them to fire at Ukrainian forces, New York Times reported, citing NATO officials. The Russian move, NYTimes reports, represents a significant escalation of the Kremlin’s involvement in the fighting there and comes as a convoy of Russian trucks with humanitarian provisions has crossed into Ukrainian territory without Kiev’s permission. The US is now getting involved, as WSJ reports,
Pentagon calls on Russia to ‘Remove Vehicles Immediately’ From Ukraine
Kirby says “very concerned” by Russian convoy in Ukraine.
Ukrainian Security Service chief Valentyn Nalyvaichenko said the move amounted to a “direct invasion,” and The Pentagon has warned “failure to [remove its vehicles] will result in further costs and isolation.”
NATO SAYS RUSSIAN ARTILLERY SUPPORT BEING USED AGAINST UKRAINE
NATO SAYS MULTIPLE REPORTS OF DIRECT RUSSIAN INVOLVEMENT
Time for some YouTube clips?
* * *
As NYTimes reports,
The Russian military has moved artillery units manned by Russian personnel inside Ukrainian territory in recent days and is using them to fire at Ukrainian forces, NATO officials said on Friday.
…
Since mid-August NATO has received multiple reports of the direct involvement of Russian forces, “including Russian airborne, air defense and special operations forces in Eastern Ukraine,” said Oana Lungescu, a spokeswoman for NATO.
“Russian artillery support — both cross-border and from within Ukraine — is being employed against the Ukrainian armed forces,” she added.
And as WSJ reports, The US is not happy…
*KIRBY SAYS RUSSIA FACES COSTS, ISOLATION IF CONVOY REMAINS
*KIRBY SAYS AID CONVOY SHOULDN’T BE EXCUSE TO CROSS BORDER
*KIRBY SAYS RUSSIA CONTINUES TO ADD TROOPS NEAR UKRAINE BORDER
*KIRBY SAYS RUSSIAN FORCE NEAR UKRAINE INCREASINGLY READY, ARMED
*KIRBY SAYS `A LOT OF EQUIPMENT’ HAS BEEN MOVED INTO UKRAINE
*GENERAL BREEDLOVE SAYS RUSSIAN CONVOY IN UKRAINE A CAUSE FOR CONCERN
The United States is very concerned about the movement of a Russian convoy into Ukraine in violation of its territorial integrity and is calling on Moscow to withdraw its equipment and personnel immediately, the Pentagon said on Friday.
“This is a violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity by Russia,” Rear Admiral John Kirby, the Pentagon press secretary, told a briefing. “Russia must remove its vehicles and its personnel from the territory of Ukraine immediately. Failure to do so will result in additional costs and isolation.”
* * *
Not more “costs” – Europe must be in panic mode…
* * *
And the Russian denial…
*CHURKIN: NO RUSSIAN MILITARY FORCES IN UKRAINE
*CHURKIN: NO PROOF OF RUSSIAN ARTILLERY IN UKRAINE
“Pentagon Demands Russia Remove Convoy “Immediately” ———- above article
Putin’s Response
Without that russian gas, europe is fucked – energy, industry, household, heat – no way can europe afford to enforce shit. Vlad will do as he pleases – including bending merkel over for good measure. Unless the savior’s got one hell of an extension cord, vlad wins. Its actually a beautiful situation for medvedev/vlad – the vulnerable gas lines are safe bringing the btu’s east and if they do befall an ‘accident’, he’s got his reason to drop the hammer and pull out all the stops. If they do incur and ‘accident’, europe will beg vlad to do something to turn the heat back on, and again, merkel will be on her knees.
Joint military drills of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) were conducted in the Karaganda region of Kazakhstan, Friday. About 3,000 soldiers, 200 vehicles and about 30 planes took part in the drills. Military units from the Air Assault Brigade of the Russian Airborne Troops, the Air Forces of Kazakhstan, the mobile team from the Special Operations Forces of Belarus, the Special Forces of the Armed Forces of Kyrgyz Republic and a commando squadron from Tajikistan participated in the exercises.
There will be a war maybe. It will be between Russia and Ukraine. USA,Germany France NATO are all powerless and nutless as Putin thinks. The war in the west will be in the newspapers. Not to get excited.
Stucky concise and to the point.
Russia should, probably, annex East Ukraine. It was ripped out of Russia but communist dictators.
Regardless, the West has been provoking Russia to an extreme degree, fomenting color revolutions and coups.
Russia and China and the BRICs are humanities last hope against the complete domination of psychopathic banker overlords, run by the Deep State and military industrial complex.
Go Russia.
Putin wants to “bend Merkel over”? That’s about as appetizing as bending Hillary over!
Russia Releases Video Of Massive Army Drill To “Contain Armed Conflict In Imaginary State”; Schedules 2 More
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/22/2014 15:29 -0400
Two weeks ago today, on Friday, August 8, the “market” seemingly desperate for any excuse to soar, did just that when Russia, tongue-in-cheek, announced that a Russian military drill, which everyone knew in advance would end that day, and which “worried the US department of state” finished. So by that logic the announcement of a new, and even more massive, military drill by Russia should send stocks crashing, right? We are joking of course: there is no news in this world that could possibly send stocks lower as good news is great but bad news only means even more intervention of various central banks, however Russia did indeed announce that it will take part in counter- terrorism exercise called Peace Mission in China with other members of Shanghai Cooperation Organization, RIA Novosti reports, citing unidentified Defense Ministry official.
The main part of drill is set to run from August 24 until the 29, so next Friday when the market soars on “news” that the drill has ended you know that algos once again failed to read anything beside the headline.
According to Bloomberg, Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan to deploy total of 7,000 military personnel, the largest ever for SCO.
And just in case stocks need more catalysts to soar (if not drop), Russia announced it would hold another exercise, called East-2014, some time in mid-September, which would involves multiple branches of armed forces. The scenario for that particular exercise is not yet disclosed.
Finally, all this is happening as Russia is currently taking part in a third exercise, called Interaction-2014, located in Kazakhstan with members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization. The purpose of this particular drill: “seek to contain armed conflict in imaginary state.”
Yes… imaginary.
Lets all not forget, $5 Billion of your and my tax dollars were spent overthrowing the elected sovereign Ukie gov by the U.S. From Russia’s viewpoint I’m sure they look at the Ukie gov as being illegitimate. And since this gov has been blowing the shit out of the Russian-speaking East Ukies, sending aid to them is only a humanitarian action.
Bottom line, the U.S. gov and NATO need to butt out!
White House Accuses Russia Of Painting Military Vehicles White; Merkel Agrees “Actions Represent Dangerous Escalation”
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/22/2014 19:53 -0400
With no Instagram #selfie image or YouTube clip as proof (yet), The White House issued a statement proclaiming that today, in violation of its previous commitments and international law, Russian military vehicles painted to look like civilian trucks forced their way into Ukraine… and that Russia has no right to send vehicles, persons, or cargo of any kind into Ukraine, whether under the guise of humanitarian convoys or any other pretext, without the express permission of the government of Ukraine. Furthermore, the actions “only amplifies international concerns about Russia’s true intentions…for which it will bear additional consequences.” If that sternly-worded email was not enough, President Obam took time away from the course on Martha’s Vineyard to chat with Angela Merkel and then issued a joint statement somewhat sheepishly noting that this is “further provocation” and represents a “dangerous escalation.”
* * *
But didn’t US equities surge 2,3,4,5% on de-escalation news?
* * *
Regarding Russia’s “Invasion”…
Statement by NSC Spokesperson Caitlin Hayden on Russian Convoy in Ukraine
Today, in violation of its previous commitments and international law, Russian military vehicles painted to look like civilian trucks forced their way into Ukraine. While a small number of these vehicles were inspected by Ukrainian customs officials, most of the vehicles have not been inspected by anyone but Russia. We condemn this action by Russia, for which it will bear additional consequences.
The Ukrainian government and the international community have repeatedly made clear that this convoy would constitute a humanitarian mission only if expressly agreed to by the Ukrainian government and only if the aid was inspected, escorted and distributed by the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC). We can confirm that the ICRC is not escorting the vehicles and has no role in managing the mission, a condition that all parties had agreed would be required. Under the agreed terms, the mission should have been accomplished by sending a small number of inspected trucks in to drop their supplies and return to Russia within 24 hours by the same approved route by which they entered. That is not what is taking place. As we and governments around the world have said all along, Russia has no right to send vehicles, persons, or cargo of any kind into Ukraine, whether under the guise of humanitarian convoys or any other pretext, without the express permission of the government of Ukraine.
The primary barrier to the delivery of the humanitarian aid has been the lack of security guarantees from the Russia-backed separatists. Russian military vehicles piloted by Russian drivers have unilaterally entered the territory controlled by the separatist forces Russia has been training, supplying, and reinforcing for months. The Ukrainian humanitarian assistance convoy was prevented from delivering much needed assistance to Luhansk city.
At the same time as Russian vehicles violate Ukraine’s sovereignty, Russia maintains a sizable military force on the Ukrainian border capable of invading Ukraine on very short notice. It has repeatedly fired into Ukrainian territory, and has sent an ever-increasing stream of military equipment and fighters into Ukraine. As a result, the international community has been profoundly concerned that Russia’s actions today are nothing but a pretext for further Russian escalation of the conflict. We recall that Russia denied its military was occupying Crimea until it later admitted its military role and attempted to annex this part of Ukraine.
Russia’s decision today to send in its vehicles and personnel without the ICRC and without the express permission of the Ukrainian authorities only amplifies international concerns about Russia’s true intentions. It is important to remember that Russia is purporting to alleviate a humanitarian situation which Russia itself created – a situation that has caused the deaths of thousands, including 300 innocent passengers of flight MH17. If Russia really wants to ease the humanitarian situation in eastern Ukraine, it could do so today by halting its supply of weapons, equipment, and fighters to its proxies. This is a flagrant violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity by Russia. Russia must remove its vehicles and its personnel from the territory of Ukraine immediately.
And the follow-up call with Merkel…
•*OBAMA SPEAKS WITH MERKEL ABOUT UKRAINE, WHITE HOUSE SAYS
•*OBAMA, MERKEL AGREE THAT RUSSIAN CONVOY A PROVOCATION
•*OBAMA, MERKEL AGREE THAT CONVOY VIOLATES UKRAINE SOVEREIGNTY
•*RUSSIA’S ACTIONS REPRESENT AN ESCALATION, MERKEL AND OBAMA SAY
As AP reports,
President Barack Obama and German Chancellor Angela Merkel say the presence of Russian soldiers in Ukraine, the buildup of Russian troops along the Ukrainian border and Russian shelling into Ukraine represent dangerous escalations of tensions by Moscow.
The White House says the two leaders agree that a Russian convoy that entered Ukraine without approval is yet another provocation by Moscow that violates Ukraine’s sovereignty.
Obama and Merkel spoke Friday while Obama vacationed in the island resort of Martha’s Vineyard.
Russia says the convoy that entered Ukraine on Friday is for humanitarian purposes, but Ukraine and the U.S. say the Russians failed to abide by conditions set by Ukraine and the International Red Cross.
Obama and Merkel agree that Russia must remove the convoy and withdraw from Ukrainian territory.
* * *
More costs and isolation? More red lines? We assume European leaders are in full panic mode…
Listening to all the fuckwad politicians, fuckwad militaryfuks, and endless warmongers on cabul teevee … well it ‘s outrageous and hilarious at the same time.
Are we TBPers, and the few web sites like us … the only ones who see the MASSIVE HYPOCRISY??? It seems so.
Stucky’s Russia/Ukraine Peace Plan.
Average Americans’ response:
Who cares? Where’s my iPhone?
Tommy hits the nail on the head. Russia wins before it even started.