Guest Post by Dmitry Orlov
With regard to the goings-on in Ukraine, I have heard quite a few European and American voices piping in, saying that, yes, Washington and Kiev are fabricating an entirely fictional version of events for propaganda purposes, but then so are the Russians. They appear to assume that if their corporate media is infested with mendacious, incompetent buffoons who are only too happy to repeat the party line, then the Russians must be same or worse.
The reality is quite different. While there is a virtual news blackout with regard to Ukraine in the West, with little being shown beyond pictures of talking heads in Washington and Kiev, the media coverage in Russia is relentless, with daily bulletins describing troop movements, up-to-date maps of the conflict zones, and lots of eye-witness testimony, commentary and analysis. There is also a lively rumor mill on Russian and international social networks, which I tend to disregard because it’s mostly just that: rumor. In this environment, those who would attempt to fabricate a fictional narrative, as the officials in Washington and Kiev attempt to do, do not survive very long.
There is a great deal to say on the subject, but here I want to limit myself to rectifying some really, really basic misconceptions that Washington has attempted to impose on you via its various corporate media mouthpieces.
1. They would like you to think that there is a Russian invasion in the East of Ukraine. What’s actually happening is a civil war between the government of Western Ukraine (which no longer rules the east in any definable way) and the Russian population of Eastern Ukraine. Ukraine has been falling apart for decades—ever since independence. The eventual break-up was inevitable, but the catalyst for it was the military overthrow of Ukraine’s legitimate government and its replacement with cadres hand-picked in Washington.
2. They would like you to think that the Russian government stands behind Lugansk People’s Republic and Donetsk People’s Republic—the two regions which, based on referendum results, have chosen to break away from Kiev. In fact, the Russian government has refused to recognize these republics. They have received no official political support from Moscow, which asked for the referendums to be postponed, and repeatedly asked for a cease-fire and an international, negotiated settlement to the crisis. The leadership of LPR and DPR has refused, and now aims for an outright military victory.
3. They would like you to believe that the Russian government is arming the “rebels” in Eastern Ukraine. To the contrary, the Russian government has withheld all military support, limiting itself to providing humanitarian supplies to the hundreds of thousands of people whose lives have been destroyed by artillery and rocket fire coming from the Ukrainian forces. The weapons in the “rebels’” arsenal are trophies, which they seized from the retreating Ukrainian forces. That said, the “rebels” are indeed being supported—but by the Russian people, not the Russian government. Remember, these are all Russians, on both sides of the border, and the Ukrainian government no longer controls any of it.
4. They want to convince you that Russia poses a threat to peace in Europe, and that the crisis in Ukraine is part of an imperialist Russian strategy to resurrect the USSR. Nothing could be further from the truth. The overarching Russian ambition is for Russia to be a normal country, subject of international law, at peace with the whole world, and integrated into the global economy. The Russian government is doing next to nothing to prevent Russians in areas that were once part of Russia from being slaughtered right in their homes using artillery and rocket fire. This makes for a distressing spectacle, but the Russian people understand that enlarging the military conflict beyond the by now purely notional borders of Ukraine is not the answer.
5. They want to assure you that Kiev will eventually prevail in the conflict. In fact, the Ukrainian military is being systematically destroyed. Shelling civilians is the only activity which they have been able to carry out successfully. The government in Kiev has instituted three mobilizations, one after the other, sending into battle boys and old men (maximum draft age is now 60). Those who refuse to be drafted were at first threatened with incarceration, but this no longer works, so they are now threatened with murder. The unofficial “fee” for getting out of being drafted is several thousand dollars. These soldiers are badly armed, badly trained, completely demoralized, and they mostly refuse to fight. Ukraine is quickly running out of tanks and APCs, which are all old Soviet-era and have been rusting for decades. It appears that Ukraine no longer has an air force at all. The casualties run into the tens of thousands. Over just one week in July, 1400 Ukrainian soldiers were killed; on the other side the figure is 10. The kill ratio is 140:1 and that one number tells almost the whole story. The war is far from over, but now, for the first time, LPR and DPR actually have something resembling an army, and that army is going on attack. Once the Ukrainian military collapses altogether, there is still the mercenary force maintained by the oligarch Kolomoisky, who runs Dnepropetrovsk Region as a personal fiefdom, and has recently decided to take charge of other neighboring regions as well. But mercenaries don’t like getting killed and, beyond a certain point, will simply run away. In all, it seems increasingly likely that Kiev will lose and that Ukraine will cease to exist.
6. They want you to think that the government in Kiev is legitimate, popular and stable. In fact, there are huge protests going on in Kiev at this very moment. The entire country is beyond bankrupt and is falling apart in real time, not just in the east, but everywhere. The people are beyond angry. The military units retreating from the east are in a foul mood, and may soon decide to turn their weapons against those who ordered them into battle. The people are beyond angry, and it seems probable that another revolution, only half a year since the last one, is in the works.
I hope that you can absorb this basic information and use it to filter out the propaganda that you read in Western newspapers and hear on the nightly news (if they mention Ukraine at all). Don’t automatically assume that if your side is full of it, then the other side is too. You don’t have to settle for lies.
Fascinating… I’m passing this along to all the people who keep saying “we have to stop Russia.” I keep trying to tell them what’s really going on, but perhaps seeing something from someone on the ground will actually convince them.
Here’s what people are saying about the worsening conflict in Ukraine
Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday further turned up the temperature in the Ukraine conflict, directly praising pro-Russian separatists while likening Ukraine forces to Nazis and threatening to expand Moscow’s standoff with the West to the Arctic.
The remarks come as Ukrainian and NATO officials charge that Russian troops have crossed into Ukraine to aid the separatists, a move that Russia has denied. Meanwhile, Ukraine Prime Minister Arseny Yatsenyuk said he would ask parliament to put the country on a path toward membership in NATO, the Western military alliance that includes the U.S., a move that would seem unlikely to be embraced by the West.
Here’s a roundup of what commentators are saying about the current state of affairs:
At The Guardian, Angus Roxburgh, a commentator and former public-relations adviser to the Russian government, says the West’s attempts to use sanctions to contain Putin’s ambitions have been the biggest mistake. He argues that Putin is likely to continue to outfox his adversaries:
Since sanctions don’t work, and war is unthinkable (President Obama on Thursday explicitly ruled out military intervention), then only one viable option remains. If Ukraine is to become peaceful and whole again, and Putin prevented from carving chunks out of neighbouring countries, there needs to be political engagement with Moscow.
In contrast, former U.S. ambassador to NATO Kurt Volker and McAin Institure fellow Erik Brattberg urge NATO and the West to stand tough:
By sending troops, tanks and artillery directly into the Ukrainian fighting, Putin is making a point: He will fight for Ukraine, and NATO will not. He is calling NATO’s bluff.
The Western response will be read carefully from Kiev to Tallinn to Moscow. For the sake of Ukraine’s integrity as a country, for future European security and for NATO’s credibility as a defense organization, NATO leaders need to make some tough decisions and push back militarily against Russia.
Their recommendations include urging NATO to provide “direct military and intelligence support” to the Ukrainain government in the form of advisers, trainers, equipment and the “possibility of direct reinforcement using NATO air and ground capabilities.”
But more sanctions do appear inevitable, writes Ingo Mannteufel, head of German broadcaster Deutsche Welle’s Russian department:
This blatant Russian meddling in Ukraine forces Europe’s hand. However, Ukraine’s hopes of a military intervention by European nations or NATO are going to be dashed. The EU will tighten sanctions – and this move will fuel escalations even further.
Meanwhile, here’s what Ian Bremmer, the head of political-risk consulting firm Eurasia Group, thinks of Ukraine’s NATO ambitions:
Writing in the September-October issue of Foreign Affairs, University of Chicago political science professor John Mearsheimer puts the blame for the crisis on the West, particularly past rounds of NATO expansion that saw the alliance add several former Warsaw Pact countries:
Putin’s pushback should have come as no surprise. After all, the West had been moving into Russia’s backyard and threatening its core strategic interests, a point Putin made emphatically and repeatedly. Elites in the United States and Europe have been blindsided by events only because they subscribe to a flawed view of international politics. They tend to believe that the logic of realism holds little relevance in the twenty-first century and that Europe can be kept whole and free on the basis of such liberal principles as the rule of law, economic interdependence, and democracy.
(This is a long-running debate. It’s also worth a look back at this piece from Foreign Policy in April, which argues that Putin is merely using NATO expansion as cover for his desire to be able to “invade his neighbors at will.”)
Ulrich Speck, a visiting scholar at the Carnegie Europe think tank in Brussels, says German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who had stepped up to take the lead in the crisis, is left without a “Plan B.” He writes on CNN.com that her “carrot and stick” approach, which was predicated on Russia’s indirect involvement, is no longer viable as Moscow moves from “proxy war to open war.” That means a “much less cordial relationship” ahead for Russia and the West and the failure of the West’s “grand strategy of transforming Russia into a liberal democracy”:
More robust tactics won’t fly in Germany or in the wider EU. Anything that appears to raise the risk of direct military confrontation with Russia will be vetoed. The only possible option now is to increase sanctions. Diplomacy will take a pause. And every hope of a return to the way relations with Russia used to be will be buried.
Meanwhile, Putin’s use of the word “Novorossiya,” or New Russia, an old tsarist term for an area that encompasses part of Ukraine, is triggering alarm. Putin last used the word in April, just before Russia’s annexation of Crimea. He used it Friday in reference to pro-Russian separatists. Over at Vox, Max Fisher breaks down what the use of the term has to say about Putin’s ultimate ambitions:
In other words, Putin’s choice of phrasing — and picking such a hotly political phrase is no accident — sounds an awful lot like a rhetorical step toward annexing all or part of the rebel-held territory. Significantly, earlier this week Russian forces invaded a part of Ukraine where there had been no previous fighting, along the southeastern-most coast with the Black Sea. That is not a rebel-held area, but it is prime Novorossiya territory.
Putin used the term only in the title of the statement, potentially leaving himself an out, Fisher writes. Putin isn’t yet “fully committing himself to the idea of Novorossiya, but his statement is enough of a step in that direction to be legitimately alarming,” he writes.
–William Watts
Believe it or not, CuNNt actually “reported” on Putin’s comments that Kiev Ukraine has been taken over by defacto Nazis.
Guess what the cunt whore CuNNt blond bimbo and her man-whore mimbo had to say.
Guess muthafucka!!!
OK, they said that Putin is ONLY addressing his own constituents in Russia. And that NO ONE in the West … OR … the WORLD in general ……. believes any of Putin’s fabrications. That Putin is not to be taken seriously, and that he is hell-bent on resurrecting the old Soviet Union.
DO you see why news reporters need to be double-tapped FIRST when TSHTF?
“and the “possibility of direct reinforcement using NATO air and ground capabilities” — @1:07
So now NATO planes dropping bombs is called “direct reinforcement”, eh? Cockfuk doublespeak! Words just don’t mean shit anymore.
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“Anything that appears to raise the risk of direct military confrontation with Russia will be vetoed. The only possible option now is to increase sanctions.” — @1:07
Sure. Because the current endless sanctions have worked out just fucking great. Goodamn, the stupidity is breathtaking to behold. I SOOOOO fucking hope Russia turns off Europe’s gas this winter. Let the Eurotrash libfuks freeze their shriveled dicks off.
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I meant to email a link to this piece to you Admin, glad you found and posted it.
Seems to me the U.S. foreign policy right now is to start WWIII. I don’t mean figuratively, I think they really, actually want war with Russia. Didn’t we have a purge of the military over the past few years? And does anyone else get the feeling the neocons are running the ship of state? Paul Craig Roberts agrees: “In order to have a reason for NATO’s continued expensive operation, Washington has had to construct an enemy out of Russia.”
http://www.sott.net/article/281198-Paul-Craig-Roberts-Washington-leadership-has-totally-failed-the-world
Stucky said: “DO you see why news reporters need to be double-tapped FIRST when TSHTF?” I am so impressed that Stuck knows what “double tap” means. Seriously, we are making progress here, people. BTW, I agree with Herr Stuck. Been spending a fair amount of time listening to NPR lately-really. Entertaining, but like all US news, only good for awareness of some of the issues.