The MSM was blathering about unemployment claims being at 2006 levels today. The market celebrated by dropping 300 points. The busy chart below shows the fascinating economic recovery we’ve experienced since the last time unemployment claims were this low. Average wage growth has stayed below the level of inflation. Real median household income is still 8% lower than it was in 2007. Mortgage applications are at 1997 levels. But Wall Street has somehow engineered higher home prices with no one applying for mortgages and millions of people taking home less pay.
Shortly after jobless claims reached today’s levels in 2000, the S&P 500 fell 45%.
Shortly after jobless claims reached today’s levels in 2007, the S&P 500 fell 55%.
This is as good as it gets with jobless claims.
Guess what happens next.
buy buy buy! bullish! recovery! jim cramer!
SO many people are working less hours than one needs to qualify for unemployment, coupled with the numerous people that finally found jobs, but haven’t worked enough quarters to re-establish a claim.
I know quite a few that this scenario is happening to. Canned from any job below 32 hours (and ALL part time are now WAY below 32 thanks to the ACA), and you do not qualify for ANY unemployment.
I knew years ago that we were going to reach a point that claims were meaningless (even if they were accurately reported, which they are not) due to these issues.
Laying off people that don’t qualify for unemployment now means the government can claim success even as millions lose everything.
One way I can tell that this is happening is the low-to-mid class consumer spending AND the increase in food stamps – which started to increase again in August, after a couple month lull (in increases).
The smart guys refuse to accept the reality that ALL improvements in our “economy” are nothing but illusion UNLESS and UNTIL the numbers going onto disability and welfare substantially drop.
Of course, “they” have “recovered,” for now, they still are making money and have jobs.
Of course our “median” income increases when the Feds (and most States & Locals thanks to Fed cash-infusions) increase their ranks and pay.
We really didn’t think that supply military gear for “free” to local cops is “free,” do we?
The costs of the extra training, specialists, storage and maintenance I’m sure have gone a long way to bumping up the median while the people that actually pay for it all continue to fade away.
Success. Soon we will be 100% fed paid and all will be well.
Sure it will.
Once everyone is unemployed, and not receiving unemployment comp – we will have arrived at 0% unemployment!
Maybe they should start reporting the employment stats!
The last three-four days has been the nastiest volatility in the markets that’s been seen in a long time.
My portfolio is bouncing $20k up one day and $15k down the next.
It leads me to the conclusion that TPTB are loosing control of the various pumps, switches, storage bins, swaps, derivatives, sub-prime instruments and all the other bullshit, fake, underfunded (or not funded at all) shadow securities and it also reminds me of what the initial stages of everyone trying to slither out the door first so as not to get trampled in the panic sure to follow.
The used to be USA economic situation is beyond grave. Total unfunded liabilities in this country (Federal, State, Municipality, individual, corporate) now exceeds $340 Trillion which is so far beyond the abilities of those who own these absolutely insane debts of whatsoever source have absolutely no way to repay the debt. The idea is to roll over these swaps, derivatives, sub-prime instruments and other debt. ROLL IT OVER.. Don’t pay it back, just borrow more to pay the interest on the debt outstanding. FOREVER….
It is simply insane.
It will not work.
It will fail at the first loss of confidence in the intercontinental community. Of course, as time goes by, the international community is adopting the exact Ponzi schemes so that, world wide, as nations find themselves insolvent, the central bankers play the game of printing money to keep everyone in the game. WORLDWIDE — except for a few frauds that are beyond hope such as Zimbabwe, most of Africa in fact, much of Central and South America, The Balkans, and a good chunk of Europe which will eventually be left to their own resources and collapse.
Who will be the first to trip and domino into the pit? Who knows. Some are more likely than others and sadly the USA is in the top quintile of possibilities. When will it happen? Absolutely no one knows (the most hilarious of the prognosticators are those who get on once side of the arguement (or discussion), insisting they are right and remaining in that position month by month, year by year, until — BUY GOLLY — what they’ve been predicting (for months or years) comes to pass! Whoopee ! See, they’ve be right along regardless of the embarrassing trail of busted investors who have does the exactly wrong thing and have lost capital all along..
The secret? Do not risk more than you can afford to loose. Never allow losses to run (a maximum loss should never exceed 2-3% before you sell it.Let the profits run, setting a following rising _close_ stop below the current level of the stock (again – say 1-2%) and if the stop is hit, sell it. More will become available soon.
IN the meantime, remember, you are playing games with people who are crooked as a dogs’ hind leg, amoral and —yes, even evil — and will skin you alive if you allow it.
Have a great Fall..
MA
Perhaps the fed’s balance sheet is a great Ark in which all of the refuse will be placed to be lit in a great Pyrrhic finale. Bad mortgages, bad bonds, bad securities all consumed and transformed into a beautiful rising phoenix of destruction.
Not sure if this is the best thread to put this link. This is the latest piece by Paul Krugman touting the glory of Obama in Rolling Stone magazine. It is obvious that Mr. Krugman has a far different opinion of POTUS than the majority of TBP readers. Would be curious how far into the article you read before you get pissed off. Guessing it won’t be long.
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/in-defense-of-obama-20141008
@peaceout —
I’d actually take this as a positive sign — the ship of fools is sinking, and if they feel they need to trot out their running dog Krugman in order to reinvigorate their liberal base that are likely readers of RS, then things must be going very badly at the Ministry of Propaganda.
When Jimmy Carter calls you out for not having a strong enough foreign policy, you are in serious trouble:
http://fortressamerica.gawker.com/even-jimmy-carter-thinks-obama-is-weak-in-the-middle-ea-1643998543
Good call Mabuk that is an interesting way to look at it.
“There is only one thing more painful than learning from experience, and that is not learning from experience.”
― Archibald MacLeish