A critical thinking person might ask themselves how can retail sales be falling if the unemployment rate has been plunging and Obama tells me this is the best economic recovery in decades? The results would have been even worse if the iMorons hadn’t financed millions of new iPhone 6s in September.
I find it fascinating that this absolutely dreadful economic news was buried in small text half way down the page on Marketwatch this morning. I guess it isn’t helpful to their buy the fucking dip mantra as the stock market continues its plunge.
There is no way to spin this report. It sucked and is another warning signal that we’ve entered a world of pain. The Greater Depression has resumed its downward course. It seems QE was the only thing propping up financial markets after all. What a shocker. It did nothing to help the average American. It actually left him far worse off, as consumer debt now sits at a new all-time high, while real household income sits at 25 year lows.
A deep dive into the Census Bureau report reveals some pertinent facts that should concern any rational thinking person. That would exclude the clowns on CNBC and the rest of the captured mainstream corporate media.
- The “adjusted” retail sales fell by .3% over last month. That is bad enough. Guess how much the non-adjusted retail sales fell? How about 6.8%. I know that sales are supposed to fall in September, but that gap is pretty huge. Consumers spent $30 billion less in September than they did in August.
- The monthly numbers aren’t as important as the year over year numbers. After nine months, retail sales are only up 3.9% and excluding the subprime pumped auto sales, only up 2.9%. If you believe the BLS CPI figure of 2% inflation, then real retail sales are up a whopping 0.9% over last year. Using a true inflation figure of 5% reveals negative real retail sales. This jives with the plunging retailer profits.
- Retail sales were up $18 billion over last year. A full 44% of that increase, or $8 billion is attributable to the 7 year 0% loans and billions in subprime auto loans being doled out by automakers to move their recall inventory to the masses.
- The other significant increase was in restaurants and bars, with a $3 billion increase. This is attributable to the 10% increase in food prices and Americans drinking themselves silly because things are so fucking great.
- The month over month data is scary. Restaurant sales were flat. Internet sales actually FELL. Auto sales FELL even though they are practically giving them away to anyone who can scratch an X on a lease or loan document. Furniture sales FELL as the fake housing recovery is revealed as a fraud. Clothing sales FELL. Virtually every category was either flat or down.
These results reveal that the employment “recovery” and the housing “recovery” storylines are a fraud. The stock market has been pumped by QE heroine. The patient is beginning to experience withdrawal symptoms. There never was a real recovery. The consumer is still up to their eyeballs in debt, but they are now using the credit card to pay their utilities and taxes. The retail death rattle grows louder by the minute.
Going forward will be a real What The Fuck moment for so many of the sheep….
Who knows if this time will be the time that some of us look back and say, yup, we knew the end game was near, just not the timing.
I notice the “Health and personal care” is posting huge increases.
O’care wins. Millions find their out of pocket costs skyrocket, so stop taking meds but in the grand scheme of things, the free medicaid crowd rushes in and saves the day. ADHD, EDD, birth control, Paxil and Spiriva for everyone! Woot! Woot!
Oops, woot’ed to soon. I notice the increase since April has slowed as the reality of $6000 deductibles hits those paying out of pocket, and most that got in on the free and firmly secured on the tit without increasing their free meds until the next disease hits them.
These results directly reflect O’care stripping billions from the paying-middle and gifting to the rich and the “poor.”
Sadly for our planners, the opium-high of the positive hit is short-lived as the true costs will continue to be revealed in less money flowing everywhere else.
March of next year seems to be the most oft heard prediction for more pandemonium.
You were right Admin, I do smell it on the air.
When I peeled back the wrapper, I noticed ‘Hookers and Blow’ was up nicely. (NAICS code 69)…. Opportunity?
Thank you bill clinton. Despite my reservations about it, sending our industry and jobs to Mexico and China turned out great after all. Nothing wrong with our economy importing 50 million more third world era can’t fix.
I can explain this drop in sales. It’s all due to the weather. The weather was so pleasant people were out vacationing (especially those 109,000,000 no longer in the work force), and didn’t have time to buy Chinese shit with a 500% markup.
It was the weather.
Wal-Mart Tumbles After Slashing Revenue Guidance, Warns Of “Somewhat Slower” Profit Growth
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/15/2014 15:20 -0400
If anyone wanted any confirmation that corporate earnings are always and only driven by the (very rigged) market, look no further than Wal-Mart, which moments ago did the inevitable: it just cut its sales forecast by nearly half, to just 2-3% from the prior forecast of 3-5%. From Bloomberg:
WAL-MART SEES NEXT 3 YRS PROFITS GROWTH ‘SOMEWHAT SLOWER’
WAL-MART SEES FY16 SALES GORWTH 2-4%
WAL-MART SEES NEXT 3 YRS SALES TO GROW 2.5%-3.5%
Also per Bloomberg, Wal-Mart Stores Inc. plans to dramatically scale back expansion of its U.S. supercenters, while investing more in e-commerce in an effort to pursue customers where they are shopping.
So instead of growth, what will WMT spend its money on? Why making its shareholders as rich as possible, while firing thousands and converting full-time workers to part-time status:
WAL-MART SEES USING CASH ON DIVS, SHARE BUYBACKS
It’s days like today when we wish Tim Geithner’s hadn’t “welcomed the recovery” back in August 2010.
and so… WMT stock tumbles to the lows…
Come on, Walmart is looking at how dirty and complicated actually making and selling stuff really is. (Even with slave and subsidized labor) They badly want to become a bank. Get your money for nothing.
2014-10-15 09:57 by Karl Denninger
Retail Sales: Barf
From the Census (we make ’em up as we go along) Bureau:
The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for September, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $442.7 billion, a decrease of 0.3 percent (±0.5%)* from the previous month, but 4.3 percent (±0.9%) above September 2013. Total sales for the July through September 2014 period were up 4.5 percent (±0.7%) from the same period a year ago. The July to August 2014 percent change was unrevised from 0.6% (±0.2%).
So that report is nasty, down everywhere an unadjusted basis. The only metric that was “slighty” ok was electronic stores, which were only down a bit — but they were still down.
As you know I trust the so-called seasonal adjustments as far as I can throw them — so I use the unadjusted numbers. There is simply no joy to be found there, with auto sales being (as reported) a large decrease — in fact, a near-collapse move.
I’m sure someone will point to the decrease in gasoline as a good thing, since the price has fallen so much. But I’d like to point something out to the mouth-breathers on CNBC and elsewhere in this regard: They always say that falling gas prices wind up being spent somewhere else — that is, when gas prices (and thus sales) fall, there is an increase in other categories to make up for it, as it is effectively a tax decrease.
Ok, where is it?
Inflation is killing people’s buying power.
The idiots at the Fed think we need more inflation.
That’ll fix everything???