Will the Fed Ever Learn?

Guest Post by Jesse

“They will act in accord with the proverbs, ‘that a dog will return to his own vomit again; and the sow that was washed goes back to wallowing in the mud.'”

2 Peter 2:21-22

No. The Fed will not learn.

The Fed will keep repeating their policy errors because they are well paid not to learn. And the economic bobble heads will keep agreeing with them and rationalizing their failures because that is the judicious thing to do if you wish to succeed in a disgraced profession that traffics in expedient fantasies as long as everyone that matters agrees with them.

The Fed wishes for the ECB and the other central banks to do dumb things like they and some of their friends are doing so that they all do the same dumb things together. There is safety in numbers apparently. Hey, we all did dumb things out of good intentions. Who could have known? No one saw the bubble coming. No one could have known that what we were doing was making things worse.

It worked for Greenspan. And its working for the Banks.

The Fed is a creature of the Banks. Its members are all members of the same ‘Club,’ the financial demimonde, and their livelihoods and privileges are supplied by the financial-political complex.

Insiders never speak ill of insiders. And whistleblowers and reformers are left at the curb.

As a regulator the Fed is one of the worst possible choices, just a quarter step removed from pure ‘self-regulation’ by the Banks. The Fed are their proxies and manservants. The recent tapes of Fed meetings with Goldman are no surprise except to those who live in fantasies with their models and jargon.

I’m sorry, but that is just how things are in the real world. The US and UK are caught in an awful credibility trap, and are destined to suffer stagnation and growing inequality until reform comes. And as we see in the case of Japan, that can be a very long time.

Speaking of things that make you go what the heck?, on CNBC this morning the assertion was that ‘the gold market is not driven by supply and demand. It only responds to fear and greed.’ That is, it’s only fundamental basis is emotion.

And you know what? In the West, in London and New York, that’s true.

The gold and silver markets have all the depth and substance of a game of Liar’s poker. They are rigged like most of the other markets with global consequences have been. This one hasn’t been cleaned up yet because the pinheads who are running the scam have no real track record or experience in trading physical commodity markets, and think they can keep leasing out what isn’t theirs and leveraging up ad infinitum, without ever incurring any real world consequences. And the Banks are perfectly willing to take their cuts because they are covered with plausible deniability, just following orders.

But this divergence from reality is not the case everywhere. Certainly not in the Asian and Mideastern markets where some accountability still exists, and delivery tends to imply taking possession.

And in that convergence of these two markets, the physical and the paper, there is both risk and opportunity. When the reckoning comes it is likely to be quite impressive.

There will be a Non-Farm Payrolls report on Friday.

The Comex Delivery Report for Friday is late, as if it is about anything that is actually delivered anywhere but on paper. There was the usual moving around the plate in the silver bullion warehouses. Gold was a snoratorium.

There is speculation now by the economists about when wage inflation will return. They are looking at 2015 for it.

I would point to the Japanese experience of 3.6% unemployment, at least on paper, and a massive underemployment running about 40%, with general wage stagnation and a large portion of the population struggling along on near subsistence wages.

Tell me again what is going to change to allow Labour to demand higher wages from a system totally dominated by two political parties both paid to represent the moneyed interests?

Change will come, but not from within. Something will have to happen to bring people back to their senses. What that will be I do not know.