This was an unequivocal disaster. All the hype. All the deals. All the advertising. All the extra hours. And sales PLUMMET by 11% versus a shitty Black Friday weekend last year. You will see bullshit excuses like on-line sales surging. Well here is the deal. Annual retail sales are about $5 trillion. On-line sales are less than $500 billion. If bricks and mortar sales decline by 11% and on-line sales go up by 20%, total sales still decline by 8%.
Black Friday is so named because it was when retailers would go into the black (profitable). It looks like this was a Red weekend. This will be the holiday season where the marginal retailers will begin to fall by the wayside. RadioShack will declare bankruptcy. Sears and JC Penney will lose hundreds of millions.
The economic recovery storyline is complete and utter bullshit. The average American can barely pay their monthly bills. If the storyline was true, there is no way retail sales would be collapsing year over year. Oil prices are deflating. Consumer spending is deflating. Wages are deflating. Global commerce is deflating. The central banks have pumped out more fiat in the last five years than had been created in world history, and their grand experiment has failed.
The shit is hitting the fan and the willfully ignorant masses don’t have a clue. The mood in the country is darkening. The mass media will keep peddling propaganda and falsity right until the end. It’s their job.
Holiday weekend sales fall 11%: NRF
By Shelly Banjo
Published: Nov 30, 2014 2:56 p.m. ET
Retail spending over the Thanksgiving weekend fell 11%, its second straight annual decline, according to the main industry trade group, a sign that flashy discounts during the four-day shopping bonanza weren’t enough to prompt increased sales.
Total spending from Thursday through Sunday sank 11% from a year earlier to $50.9 billion, according to the National Retail Federation. Shoppers spent an average $380.95, down 6.4% from $407.02 a year earlier.
NRF CEO Matt Shay attributed the drop to a combination of factors, including the fact that retailers moved promotions earlier this year in attempt to get people out sooner and avoid what happened last year when people didn’t finish their shopping because of bad weather.
He also attributed the declines to better online offerings and an improving economy where “people don’t feel the same psychological need to rush out and get the great deal that weekend, particularly if they expected to be more deals.”
I bet its worse than 11%. All the places we visited this weekend were dead.
Although, I was in Manhattan on Friday and was watching closely, although anecdotedal on my stroll down 5th Avenue. Saks was packed as usual with foreigners buying like there is no tomorrow. The high end watch stores–empty. Morons waiting outside the Best Buy to save their $50 as per earlier article. The fast food places–packed. Lord & Taylor, sizable crowd but it was hard to determine whether this actually translated into sales. Diamond District/47th Street–empty with few lookers as I went by there twice. All in all a mixed bag– Saks is freaking going full tilt every time I go in there, but low to middle end would appear to be hurting..Any one else have boots on the ground obvservations?
Retail Disaster: Holiday Sales Crater by 11%, Online Spend Declines: NRF Blames Shopping Fiasco On “Stronger Economy”
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/30/2014 17:09 -0500
Last year was bad. This year is an outright disaster.
As we reported earlier using ShopperTrak data, the first two days of the holiday shopping season were already showing a -0.5% decline across bricks-and-mortar stores, following a “cash for clunkers”-like jump in early promotions which pulled demand forward with little follow through in the remaining shopping days. However, not even we predicted the shocker just released from the National Retail Federation, the traditionally cheery industry organization, which just reported absolutely abysmal numbers: sales during the four-day Thanksgiving holiday period crashed by a whopping 11% from $57.4 billion to $50.9 billion, confirming what everyone but the Fed knows by now: the US middle class is being obliterated, and that key driver of 70% of US economic growth is in the worst shape it has been since the Lehman collapse, courtesy of 6 years of Fed’s ruinous central planning.
Demonstrating the sad state of America’s “economic dynamo”, shoppers spent an average only $380.95, down 6.4% from $407.02 a year earlier. In fact, as the NRF charts below demonstrate, there was a decline across virtually every tracked spending category (source):
As the WSJ reports, NRF’s CEO Matt Shay attributed the drop to a combination of factors, including the fact that retailers moved promotions earlier this year in attempt to get people out sooner and avoid what happened last year when people didn’t finish their shopping because of bad weather.
Also did we mention the NRF is perpetually cheery and always desperate to put a metric ton of lipstick on a pig? Well, hold on to your hats folks:
He also attributed the declines to better online offerings and an improving economy where “people don’t feel the same psychological need to rush out and get the great deal that weekend, particularly if they expected to be more deals,” he said.
And of course the sprint vs marathon comparisons, such as this one: “The holiday season and the weekend are a marathon not a sprint,” NRF Chief Executive Officer Matthew Shay said on a conference call. Odd how that metaphor is never used when the (seasonally-adjusted) sprint beats the marathoners.
So there you have it: a 11% collapse in retail spending has just been spun as super bullish for the US economy, whereby US consumers aren’t spending because the economy is simply too strong, and the only reason they don’t spend is because they will spend much more later. Or something.
Apparently the plunge in Americans who even care about bargains is also an indication of an economic resurgence:
The retail trade group said the number of people who went shopping over the four-day weekend declined by 5.2% to 134 million, from 141 million last year.
Finally, what we said earlier about a surge in online sales, well forget it – it was a lie based on the now traditional skewed perspectives from a few self-servcing industry organizations:
Despite many retailers offering the same discounts on the Web as they offered in stores, the Internet didn’t attract more shoppers or more spending than last year. Online sales accounted for 42% of sales racked up over the four-day period, the same percentage as last year, though up from 26% in 2006, the trade group said.
In fact, it was worse: “Shoppers spent an average $159.55 online, down 10.2% from $177.67 last year.”
But the propaganda piece de resistance is without doubt the following:
“A highly competitive environment, early promotions and the ability to shop 24/7 online all contributed to the shift witnessed this weekend,” Mr. Shay said.
So to summarize: holiday sales plunged, and Americans refused to shop because the economy is “stronger than ever” and because Americans have the option of shopping whenever, which is why they didn’t shop in the first place. That, and of course plunging gasoline prices leading to… plunging retail sales, just as all the economists “correctly” predicted.
Goebbels approves.
Jim asked:
“.Any one else have boots on the ground obvservations?”
Yep. It was calm an peaceful at my house all weekend. No money was spent. Dogs had a blast chasing tennis balls across the frost covered lawn. My cell phone has not rung once since Wednesday. Apart from the doom porn on the interwebz, all seems well with the world.
Wife said Walmarts was empty. Sams Club was normal crowd.
What? No mention of the “Black Friday” Sale in Precious Metals?
Black Monday Sale in PMs look even better!
Let’s see them report THAT in the MSM.
Honest, Lawful Money.
Got any?
If not, here’s your chance!
Cheers, S. Rex
Spent nada last year, and nada again this year.
What is this thing “Black Friday”?
Better than normal weekend shopping traffic in L.A. but I was able to average about 75 on the freeway through most of LA/suburbs on Friday morning. I bought a $4.95 usb flash for my daughter at Radio Shack on T-day. We needed a washer and found a $200 off BF deal at bLowes late Friday. $249 for a Hotpoint washer ain’t bad! Amazingly they had 3 in stock.
Westcoaster, you fool, Wat be wrong wid you? Course dose washers be availideble.
Youse knowz we black folks ain gots no use for dem washin machines. Wen deez clodes gets dirty, weez just stealz some mo.
And dem beaners, dey dontz care ifn dey be durdy o not.
Dey alwayz be washin machines availble. weez gots no use fur em in da hood.
But, but, but, I thought President Zero told us that the economy was improving. Oh wait, that’s right, it’s only improving for his Wall Street and Hollywood fat cat buddies.
I’m waiting for the Ferguson type of shopping to come to my neighborhood where the merchandise flies off the shelf.
Mike – no needs to wait. all uze gots ta do iz tex all youse frenz telz em deys a flash mob a happenin down at da Walmartz.
Dats all weez does wen we wants us sum mo free stuff.
I wonder if anyone in the lame stream media is feeling even remotely embarrassed at its role in conning the American rubes into thinking we’re in a recovery.
Hint: if your political elite talk about a “recovery” for five years, you can be assured we’re in for a world of hurt.
Every day I expect the crap to hit the fan, and every day it is put off. How long can this charade go on?
Westcoaster says:
“We needed a washer and found a $200 off BF deal at bLowes late Friday. $249 for a Hotpoint washer ain’t bad! Amazingly they had 3 in stock.”
Should have spent a little extra and bought a Speed Queen. Still made in Murika by Murikans. It’s the same washer your grandparents had and still have if they’re frugal. Best things about them is they are not computerized, YOU still get to select your water temp, they are easily serviced and repaired by their owners, they are made of metal parts and you don’t have to replace them in 5-10 years. More like 25-30 years or more. Oh yeah, they actually CLEAN clothes too. I used front loaders in Europe and the US for the last 20 years and once I switched back to a good old fashioned top loader you could see and smell the difference from the very first load.
Steve– that is the million dollar question-how long can it go on?. I am always amazed visiting relatives in NYC, Westchester County, etc. how oblivious they are to “doom” talk and potential scenarios in the future. I for one, do not want to be anywhere near NYC when the proverbial SHTF. In fact, the industrial midwest and south will probably fare better in that folks are used to bad times and live more conservatively. But at any rate, back to NYC and environs, the people there have had it so good for so long that they are oblivious to the bad times coming. The whole economy there appears to be based on tourism and financials swindles which will disappear faster than you know what.
@STEVE HOGAN
Golf clap STEVE, you hit the nail on the head. Historically, it is not unusual for collapse process to go on for over a century. I’m with you, tired of dealing with it day after day. Roman Empire took 150 years to bite the big one.
Spent nothing and went only to family’s house in St Louis County (nowhere near Ferguson), where we had a quiet holiday and spent the weekend just being with each other. The malls in the area tried to use protests as an excuse for their crappy sales, but we never feel like getting into the middle of the Black Friday mob at the Galleria anyway, so we just watched the protests there on TV. They were made up of lame-ass white liberals lying down on the floor of the mall concourse, holding signs, while shoppers stepped over and around them like they weren’t there.
All was pretty quiet, including most of the protests.
We’re not spending any money this Christmas, and neither are most of my friends of whatever race or political persuasion. Everyone is nervous, including those few of us who are well-employed.
Roll the motherfucking guillotines! We’ll get that 0.01% yet (at least the ones who don’t flee on their yachts).
I spent a lot this weekend. For example, I just spent some time taking an online spelling test. Got 29 of 30 correct, and I’m sure the 1 incorrect answer was a miss click. Heh.
“We’re not spending any money this Christmas, and neither are most of my friends of whatever race or political persuasion.”
—-Chicago999444
Good call. My wife and I knocked that shit off years ago. Exchange cards with family and pop some dough into the grandkids education accounts. That’s it.
P.S. I may send a Christmas donation to Admin to support TBP, but I’m still not sure whether he’s been naughty or nice. What do you think, readers?
“Red Friday’ should be a red letter day for you and your future spending habits.
Think back over your life. When has buying things for Christmas or at other times ever led to your most meaningful moments? – I’m not including travel, just things. Christmas gifts are important but only because they perpetuate a ritual essential to all of us. A few gifts and those personalized are enough then, just as they should be at other times. Getting together as a family and doing activities together are more important. That’s the best way to live for the rest of the year.
I’m older than most of you who comment on TBP and I have more to reflect on. After providing for necessities for my family and myself, no thing I’ve ever spent money on has ever approached the satisfaction I’ve had from getting together with family and friends. It does take some thinking to plan events and manage contacts but the time and effort are worh it.
Therein lies the lesson of “Red Friday.” Don’t be seduced by the advertisers. Don’t think that you can buy happiness or the good life. Remember “Red Friday” and for the rest of the day and the weekends of your life create your own good times and your happiness. Don’t think you can buy them.
I think it is fucking great that the American public spent 11% less.
This is a positive thing.
I mean it.
I broke down and bought a precision torque screwdriver for scope rings and mounts on guns that I don’t shoot. No malls, shopping centers, restaurants, &TC.
a nice tune for getting in that beat down festive consumer spirit.
Song: Have Yourself a Merry Little Black Friday
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flash
terrific video !!
The story, to go with Jim’s chart:
NRF: Thanksgiving Weekend Sales Decline
Monday December 1st, 2014 – 11:06AM
According to the National Retail Federation’s Thanksgiving Weekend Spending Survey conducted November 28 and 29 by Prosper Insights & Analytics, 55.1% of consumers were or would be shopping in stores and online over Thanksgiving weekend, down from 58.7% in 2013. Overall shopper traffic from Thanksgiving Day through Sunday, November 30 dropped 5.2% from last year’s study.
Total shopping visits, including multiple trips by the same shopper, also fell this Thanksgiving weekend to 233.3 million versus 248.6 million, NRF stated.
The average person who shopped over the weekend spent $159.55 online, which was about 41.9% of total average budget, down 10.2% from last year, NRF pointed out.
The average person who shopped or would shop the holiday weekend planned on spending $380.95, down 6.4% from $407.02 last year, the survey indicated. In total, NRF said it expected a spending decline to $50.9 billion from last year’s estimated $57.4 billion. In all, the survey determined, 77.2% of consumers said they took advantage of retailers’ online and in-store promotions to buy non-gift items for themselves or their families, in line with last year’s 76.4%.
NRF noted that 86.9 million shoppers were in stores and online on Black Friday with 32.2%, or 43.1 million, saying they shopped on Thanksgiving Day, flat with last year’s 31.8%. In response to the survey, 51.8% of consumers said they shopped on Saturday and one-quarter said they would shop on Sunday. In addition, 75.2% of survey respondents said they did or planned to shop specifically for Small Business Saturday, NRF asserted.
In the survey, 54.5% of respondents said they purchased apparel items over the Thanksgiving weekend while 32.6% purchased toys, 34.2% bought electronics, 34.9% purchased books, videos or video games, 20% purchased home décor or home furnishing items, 28.1% bought gift cards and 15% bought jewelry items.
I dint buy shit. Rubber or real.
After Abysmal Thanksgiving Spending, Cyber Monday Is Latest Dud, Rising Less Than Half 2013 Pace
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/02/2014 08:03 -0500
Prepare to hear much more of the “retail spending slowed down because the economy is just too strong” excuses today, used most hilariously by the NRF on Sunday to explain the unprecedented 11% collapse in the 2014 4-day holiday weekend spend, when pundits “justify” why Cyber Monday sales were only the latest proof the US consumer – that 70% driver of US GDP – is being crushed day after day, pardon, basking in the warm glow of America’s centrally-planned golden age.
Here are the facts: Internet holiday shopping rose only 8.1% on Cyber Monday yesterday, usually the busiest day for Web shopping as people return to their desks after the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday weekend. This was a big miss to expectations, and is less than half then growth posted just last year, when online sales grew at 17.5%, according to IBM.
Enter the spin doctors:
… Cyber Monday sales growth is slowing as consumers embrace the convenience of online shopping, spreading out their purchases instead of being lured by one-day specials.
… The declining pace of growth reflects an earlier start to the year-end shopping season, with Amazon.com Inc. and other online retailers offering online deals a week before Black Friday, when stores traditionally began offering holiday discounts.
… “We’re still getting really strong growth on Black Friday and Cyber Monday, but people are realizing it’s a season of shopping,” Soren Mills, chief marketing officer at Newegg Inc., an online electronics retailer. “We’re releasing new deals all the time. We refresh constantly and bring in new deals to keep the excitement there. People are turning it from a day-long occasion to a monthlong occasion.”
… “Consumers are definitely shopping earlier,” said Scot Wingo, ChannelAdvisor’s chief executive officer. “Thanksgiving eats into Black Friday, and Saturday and Sunday are eating into Cyber Monday.”
But nothing compares to:
NRF’s CEO Matt Shay attributed the drop to a combination of factors, including the fact that retailers moved promotions earlier this year in attempt to get people out sooner and avoid what happened last year when people didn’t finish their shopping because of bad weather. He also attributed the declines to better online offerings and an improving economy where “people don’t feel the same psychological need to rush out and get the great deal that weekend, particularly if they expected to be more deals,” he said.
Yes, consumer spending is plunging due to a stronger economy. Clearly this guy went to Princeton.
All of which is not only funny, but an outright lie as well, because as reported previously, when aggregating all the Thanksgiving spending data from Thursday to Sunday, we find that shoppers spent an average $159.55 online, down 10.2% from $177.67 last year. This took place as there was an actual decline in the percentage of Black Friday weekend shopping taking place online. So not only did Americans buy less online, they spent less online!
Which is why, of course, one needs spin. The problem is when people no longer buy, pardon the pun, the bullshit:
This year, many shoppers stayed home. The NRF had predicted that 140.1 million customers would visit retailers last weekend. Instead, only 133.7 million showed up. The slow start may make it harder for retailers to hit sales targets over the next month. The NRF had predicted a 4.1 percent sales gain for November and December — the best performance since 2011.
And it may still get it… if all retailers go “full Amazon” and liquidate their wares well below cost, leading to another wave of retail bankruptcies and even more evil, evil deflation.