In Part One of this article I laid the groundwork of the Fourth Turning generational theory. I refuted President Obama’s claim that the shadow of crisis has passed. The shadow grows ever larger and will engulf the world in darkness in the coming years. The Crisis will be fueled by the worsening debt, civic decay and global disorder. I will address these issues in this article.

Debt, Civic Decay & Global Disorder

The core elements propelling this Crisis – debt, civic decay, and global disorder – were obvious over a decade before the financial meltdown catalyst sparked this ongoing two decade long Crisis. With the following issues unresolved, the shadow of this crisis has only grown larger and more ominous:


  • The national debt has risen by $7 trillion (64%) to $18.1 trillion since 2009 and continues to accelerate by $2.3 billion per day, on track to surpass $20 trillion before Obama leaves office and $25 trillion by 2019.

  • The national debt as a percentage of GDP is currently 103% (it would be 106% if the BEA hadn’t decided to positively “adjust” GDP up by $500 billion last year). It is on course to reach 120% by 2019. Rogoff and Reinhart have documented the fact countries that surpass 90% experience economic turmoil, decline, and ultimately currency collapse and debt default.
  • Despite the housing collapse and hundreds of billions in mortgage, credit card, auto, and corporate debt being written off, dumped on the backs of taxpayers and hidden on the Federal Reserve balance sheet, total credit market debt has reached a new high of $58 trillion.

  • Harvard professor Laurence Kotlikoff has been a lone voice telling the truth about the true level of unfunded promises hidden in the CBO numbers. The unfunded social welfare liabilities in excess of $200 trillion for Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and Obamacare are nothing but a massive future tax increase on younger and unborn generations. Kotlikoff explains what would be required to pay these obligations:

To honor these obligations we could (a) raise all federal taxes, immediately and permanently, by 57%, (b) cut all federal spending, apart from interest on the debt, by 37%, immediately and permanently, or (c) do some combination of (a) and (b).”

The level of taxation and/or Federal Reserve created inflation necessary to honor these politician promises is too large to be considered feasible. Therefore, these promises, made to get corrupt political hacks elected to public office, will be defaulted upon.

  • The level of local and state pension and healthcare unfunded liabilities to government workers exceeds $4 trillion. State and local politicians would have to double real estate, sales, and income taxes in order to fund the gold plated benefits for state and local workers. As government workers in Stockton, San Bernardino, Jefferson County and Detroit have experienced, these promises will be not be honored.
  • Consumer credit outstanding, despite the false media storyline of austerity, currently stands at $3.3 trillion, an all-time high, as the Federal government took monopoly control of the student loan market in 2009 and proceeded to issue $600 billion of subprime loans to University of Phoenix wannabe graduates seeking degrees in Gender Studies. The Feds also used their five year control of Ally Financial (after their taxpayer bailout) to rejuvenate the subprime auto loan market by doling out $35,000 seven year car loans to unemployed SNAP recipients, because everyone deserves to drive a brand new Cadillac Escalade. The $250 billion increase in auto loan debt since 2009 has “created” the auto recovery. Loan delinquencies approaching 2009 levels will surely not cause a problem.
  • Despite the false storyline of corporate America being flush with cash. Corporate debt levels are at all-time highs. The brilliant CEOs of S&P 500 companies decided that adding hundreds of billions in debt to their balance sheets to buy back their stock at or near all-time highs was an outstanding idea. It worked so well in 2007. I wonder if tying their million dollar bonuses to earnings per share had anything to do with it.

  • Every legitimate valuation method used to assess stock market valuations for the last 100 years confirm the stock market being at least 100% overvalued. There could not be a worse time for margin debt to also reach all-time highs. The previous peaks in 2000 and 2007 preceded 50% collapses in stocks. The Yellen Put will surely save the excessive risk takers this time. Right?

Civic Decay

  • The feelings of anger, disillusionment, confusion, angst, bitterness, blame, and helplessness among a large swath of America is rising by the day. They were so pissed off in November, they voted the D team out of office and put the R team back in control. But more people have begun to realize there is one corporate fascist party in control doing the bidding of Wall Street, corporate CEOs, special interests, and shadowy billionaires who call the shots, select the candidates, write the laws, fund the wars of choice around the globe, and keep the citizens under constant surveillance and threat of military rule by police thugs in communities across the land.
  • Despite the false storyline of economic recovery, soaring GDP, plunging unemployment rates, record corporate profits, and stock market highs, the lives of real people living in the real world continue to deteriorate at a rapid clip. The number of people on food stamps in 2009, at the height of the worst recession since the 1930s, was 33 million. Today, five years into the “economic recovery”, the number of people on food stamps is 47 million. This means 19% of all the households in the U.S. depend on the government for food. That figure was 6% in 2000. Does that sound like progress or decay?
  • The Federal government insists the unemployment rate has fallen from 10% in 2009 to a miniscule 5.7% today. The ridiculousness of this claim is borne out by the fact the working age population has grown by 14 million since 2009, while the number of employed has only grown by 7 million. The number of people who have left the workforce since the economic recovery started is an astonishing 12 million. In the previous five years, only 4 million people left the workforce. There are now 102 million working age Americans not working versus the 147 million working. The labor participation rate stands at a 38 year low, back to levels before women entered the workforce in great numbers.

  • If Obama is boasting about the best job growth in decades, why are real median household incomes below 1989 levels? The non-existent inflation, which has reduced the purchasing power of the USD by 96% since the Federal Reserve was mandated in 1913 to keep our currency stable, has somehow outgrown any wage increases received by the average America for the last 25 years. As good paying full-time jobs have been replace by low paying part-time service jobs, wages have stagnated.

  • The entire engineered “recovery” has been a sham, designed to save Wall Street, not Main Street. The little old widowed grandmothers have been given a death sentence of .15% interest on their CDs and money market accounts, while the .1% Wall Street elite was handed trillions of interest free fiat to gamble in the market, buy up foreclosures for their rental scheme, and earn billions in risk free returns by parking their reserves with their sugar daddies at the Fed.
  • The proof this debt induced, Federal Reserve concocted, Keynesian inspired, scheme was designed to benefit the few at the expense of the many can be seen by the level of global wealth accumulated by the richest, as the middle and lower classes sink further into despair. Over 48% of global wealth is in the hands of 1%, with the vast majority in the hands of the .1% ruling elite. The fact the wealthiest .1% have seen a vast increase in their wealth since the 2008 Crisis began, while the rest of the population has seen their net worth decline, is solely due to the policies implemented by central bankers and their puppet politicians around the globe. The larger this gap widens the more likely class warfare turns into a real war.

  • The signs of civil unrest are everywhere. It began with the Tea Party liberty movement and the Occupy Wall Street movement back in 2010 – 2012. Both movements were hijacked and/or crushed by the police state and their media mouthpieces, carrying out the orders of a panicky corporate fascist hierarchy. The full use of mainstream media propaganda was utilized to discredit both resistance movements. The recent civil uprisings in Ferguson and NYC over the failure of civil authorities to prosecute rogue cops are the latest in a myriad of citizens versus police clashes, which grow by the day. The police as heroes’ propaganda emanating from the corporate mainstream media is deafening, but only the non-thinking statists are buying it. The level of advertising and movies glorifying the military as protecting us from ever looming threats, despite the fact no country on earth could possibly invade our country, has been thunderous as the deep state uses propaganda techniques to sway the easily manipulated.
  • The United States has rapidly decayed into a surveillance police state, making Orwell’s 1984 seem like a guide for amateurs. The only true hero to rise during this Fourth Turning thus far, Edward Snowden, has revealed the depth of deception being practiced by a paranoid Big Brother style government operating unconstrained by the shackles of the Constitution as they attempt to retain their power and wealth at all costs. Freedom of speech, freedom from illegal search and seizure, and virtually every other Constitutional right has been disregarded by an all-powerful but fearful ruling party, as they monitor and record every electronic interaction of every citizen on earth. Orwell couldn’t have conceived of the $1.5 billion, 1.5 million square foot NSA Worldwide Surveillance Center in Utah. But, he did understand the mind of authoritarians:

“The Party seeks power entirely for its own sake. We are not interested in the good of others; we are interested solely in power, pure power.”


  • The use of Executive Orders to bypass the U.S. Constitution regarding vital issues, which according to the U.S. Constitution must be approved by Congress, has pushed the country ever closer towards authoritarian rule. The checks and balances of the three branches have been found superfluous by the ruling party. They have set the stage for a president to declare a national emergency where one person can take complete control over the financial system, the internet, phone communications, road networks, and ability to use the military on domestic soil.
  • The proliferation of red light cameras and surveillance cameras on street corners in most major cities were sold to the public as safety measures designed to make the roads and streets safer. These cameras are nothing more than a means to keep revenue flowing to government bureaucrats, monitor our every movement, and record our personal information. You can be tracked by your car, your phone or your credit card. Big Brother knows your location, thoughts, plans, weaknesses, and fears.
  • The U.S. military has been conducting unannounced “training exercises” in major cities across America for the last few years, even though they have vast training facilities in designated non-populated areas. This is clearly being done as an intimidation tactic to let the public know it would be futile to resist such a high tech powerful force. The government is desensitizing the population to the military operating within our borders, even though the Constitution prohibits use of the military domestically.
  • Did the Department of Homeland Security just think it was a fiscally responsible move to give “excess” military hardware to local police forces, run by a bunch of Barney Fifes? The idiocy of providing military equipment to low IQ, high desire to bully and control, small town cops is incomprehensible. Unless the government just wants to position the assets for when they assume control of the situation on the ground after social unrest spreads across the land.
  • The number of SWAT raids has increased from a few hundred per year in the 1970s to over 80,000 per year today. This outrageous trend has occurred as the violent crime rate per 1,000 people has plunged from 50 in the 1970’s to less than 15 today. SWAT teams are a hammer in search of a citizen nail.

  • The lock down of the entire Boston metropolitan area by government military forces as they conducted illegal house to house searches, in violation of the Fourth Amendment, searching for two teenage kitchen utensil terrorist bombers, who they were warned about by our evil Russian enemy months before their attack, was a trial run. The people of Boston obeyed, cowered, and submitted to the boot. Their colonial ancestors would have been disgusted by their trembling display of cowardice. Once the government declares an imminent or ongoing terrorist threat it is clear the majority will obey, submit, and cringe in fear. They will beg to be saved by their government keepers.

  • The level of contempt for the common man and the arrogance displayed by these “Ivy League men of substance” as they ride roughshod over the U.S. economic system was never more visible than the recent spending bill passed with the support of both parties and signed by Obama. It proved there is truly only one party, controlled by the wealthy interests on Wall Street. The $1.1 trillion spending bill that funded Obamacare and Obama’s executive order granting amnesty to illegal aliens, also included language written by Citicorp allowing Wall Street banks to trade certain financial derivatives from subsidiaries that are insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp, explicitly putting taxpayers on the hook for the nearly certain billions in losses which these reckless, lawless bankers will incur when they crash the financial system again. Congress and Obama proved they are bought and paid for by the Wall Street oligarchs – true bipartisanship.
  • The cultural decay of American society is pervasive, promoted and applauded by the corporate media, hawking Chinese made baubles & trinkets, and proudly displayed by the delusional egocentric iGadget addicted masses. The tattooed, pierced, obese masses glory in their ignorance, apathy, materialism, selfishness and greed. A united nation of self-reliant, freedom loving, hard-working, personally responsible, civic minded citizens has degraded into a fragmented amalgamation of dependent, fearful, lazy, irresponsible, short sighted inhabitants in a kleptocracy of delusion. The vast majority are incapable or uninterested in the critical thinking required to keep evil men from hijacking our economic, financial, political and judicial systems. There will be no groundswell for change until the societal structure implodes.
  • The only way civic decay could be reversed would be through an educated populace capable of critical thinking who questioned and contested the actions of government apparatchiks, politicians, bankers, corporate executives, and the self-declared Ivy League ruling class. Sadly, that is not to be. After forty years of government control of the education system spending per student (in constant dollars) has risen from less than $5,000 per student in 1970 to $12,000 per student, while test scores haven’t gone up by one point over this same time frame. Total enrollment is up 8%, while government employed union teachers and bureaucrats are up 95%. Their job has been to produce functionally illiterate, financially ignorant, indoctrinated consumers, who follow orders, feel rather than think, and believe what they are told by the government and their media mouthpieces. They’ve done a stupendous job of dumbing down the populace.

  • Any children who show individuality or fail to conform to the government indoctrination are immediately diagnosed with A.D.H.D. and pumped full of drugs. This has the added benefit of increasing the profits of the healthcare industrial complex that pay doctors to prescribe their drugs. Nearly one in five high school age boys and 11% of all school-age children have been diagnosed attention deficit hyperactivity disorder. An estimated 6.4 million children ages 4 through 17 have received an A.D.H.D. diagnosis at some point in their lives, a 16% increase since 2007 and a 41% rise in the past decade. Keeping uncooperative children sedated is good training for adulthood, where one in ten adults is on anti-depressants and one in five women in their 40s and 50s are on anti-depressants. The prescribing of anti-depressants is up 400% since 1990. A dumbed down drugged population is not likely to revolt, notice the crumbling of their society, loss of freedoms, or declining real incomes. The oligarchs like it that way.

“The more corrupt the state, the more numerous the laws.” Tacitus – The Annals of Imperial Rome

Global Disorder

  • The one constant since the onset of this Crisis in 2008 has been a never ending onslaught of violent upheavals, wars, revolutions, coups, financial collapses, currency wars, and shifting alliances. Anyone who doesn’t recognize the ratcheting up in the level of global turmoil and mayhem since 2008 are either paid by the vested interests to obscure the truth, are financially benefitting from the global disorder, or have been effectively neutralized and manipulated by the unseen government propaganda campaigns. Edward Bernays would be so proud of his modern day disciples of mind molding.
  • The Middle East has been a flashpoint since the Arab Spring began in Tunisia with the self-immolation of Mohamed Bouazizi, a mild mannered street merchant pushed too far in 2010. By January 2015, rulers had been forced from power in Tunisia, Egypt (twice), Libya, and Yemen (twice); civil uprisings had erupted in Bahrain, Syria, Iraq, and Palestine/Israel; and major protests had broken out in Algeria, Jordan, Kuwait, Morocco, and Sudan. The common thread in all these uprisings is the United States of America. We propped up the dictators in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Yemen, and Syria until we decided they were expendable. When Egypt elected a government not in our best interests, we supported a military coup and currently prop up a new dictator. This is called spreading democracy in the Middle East. Allies and enemies are interchangeable, depending on the circumstances. The goal of the U.S. is to spread chaos, so no one country or coalition gains significant power.

  • The U.S. provoked the uprising in Syria and armed and supported the forces fighting Assad, as part of a plan to build a gas pipeline from Saudi Arabia, across Syria to Europe. This is being done to reduce Russian influence over Europe with their near monopoly of natural gas supply. It has been a chess match between superpowers since Russia bloodlessly reclaimed Crimea. The chess pieces have been the lives of Syrians, Iraqis, and Ukrainians. The hundreds of thousands of dead, wounded and displaced are nothing but collateral damage to the rulers of empires. The very same rebels armed by the U.S. to fight Assad suddenly became the newest existential threat to our existence as the dreaded ISIS, who is now a threat to take over Iraq. They also happen to be enemies of our other axis of evil enemy Iran and the Kurds, whom our ally Turkey hates. Got it? Chaos and disorder are the U.S. solution and the main beneficiaries are our very own military industrial complex, whose profits were threatened when no military threats were on the horizon. If they don’t exist, just make them up.
  • Meanwhile, in Afghanistan after thirteen years the Taliban are stronger than they were in 2001 and the opium trade is booming. The U.S. needs a strong illegal drug pipeline to keep its War on Drugs funded and enforced by hundreds of thousands of militarized police. Our corporate prison complex needs new meat from petty drug criminals to keep the profits flowing. As boots on the ground leave Afghanistan, they march back into Iraq to train the Iraqi military again. ISIS has been very impressed with the military hardware we left the Iraqi army, as they use it against the Iraqis. Israel continues to warn that Iran is only months away from a nuclear bomb, as they have for the last fourteen years. U.S. economic sanctions are an act of war and have pushed Iran closer to China and Russia.
  • Russia’s support for Assad and Iran prompted the U.S. military empire to first use Cyprus as a way to siphon off some of their Russian oligarch wealth and then conduct the most blatant coup d’état in history by toppling the democratically elected Russian friendly Ukrainian government and inserting their hand-picked lackey. Russia rightfully fears the U.S. military/NATO on their doorstep in the Ukraine. They prefer a buffer state, not in the EU or NATO. The eastern Ukrainians prefer an alliance with Russia, while the U.S. controlled Kiev puppets will do as they are told. They have been told to destroy Donetsk, its citizens, and the resistance fighters supported by Russia. Just as the U.S. created the poison gas false flag attack in Syria, which was proven to be false, the shooting down of a Malaysian airliner over the eastern Ukraine by the Kiev government was blamed on Putin and the rebels. The blackout by American media regarding the suppression of radar, black box recordings, and controller transmissions is proof of their complicity in this government conspiracy. The economic sanctions against Russia are another act of war and have pushed Russia closer to China. The incompetence of the Kiev regime and their embrace of Nazis have allowed the rebels to gain traction and fight off repeated attacks. Neither superpower will back down, as their strategic interests in the Ukraine are essential to their power.
  • China, which has been the driving world economic force for the last decade, is in a precarious position. They have been the slave labor manufacturer to the world as the worldwide debt fueled consumption orgy reached its 2008 climax. Their level of Keynesian mal-investment since 2008 makes Obama, Bernanke, and Yellen look like pikers. The level of corruption, deception, wealth inequality, pollution, censorship and phony economic data has been done on a majestic scale. It is now unraveling in a slow motion crash as the global recession has crushed their industrial output and is rapidly deflating their real estate bubble. The 52 million unoccupied housing units in China may not turn out to be great investments after all. The absurdity of Chinese economic reports makes the BLS look highly accurate and upstanding. Their reported GDP of 7.4% was their slowest in 24 years, but the real figure is closer to 4%. The proof of the dramatic slowing in Chinese growth is the collapse in oil prices, copper prices, iron ore prices, and the Baltic Dry Index. The index measures world trade and has crashed to its lowest level ever. The potential for social unrest when their mal-investment debt bubbles implode will be great.

  • The 25 year Japanese recession has entered its final death throes of complete currency collapse. In 1990 the Japanese had a choice. Their debt fueled boom was going bust. They could have taken their lumps, experienced a brutal depression, wrote off the bad debt, liquidated the reckless banks, and learned an important lesson. Their economy would have recovered and their manufacturing based economy would have flourished. Instead they have attempted to extend and pretend for a quarter of a century. After trillions of waste on Keynesian stimulus projects, 0% interest rates, and increasing their debt to GDP ratio from 75% to 250%, the psychopaths in charge have pushed their money printing to hyper-speed levels. Next stop total catastrophe.

There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.” Ludwig von Mises

  • The poster child for global disorder has been Greece. They were the catalyst for the EU debt crisis in 2009/2010. And they are currently the channel through which the molten ingredients of EU disintegration are flowing. The “solutions” implemented by the ECB and EU politicians to solve an insolvency crisis created by too much debt have been to introduce austerity on the average person, while issuing trillions in debt, and protecting bankers and billionaires at all costs. Europe does not have a liquidity problem. It has a solvency problem due to unpayable social promises, government corruption, mass unemployment in Southern Europe, and overleveraged sleazy bankers. Why anyone with an ounce of mathematical ability would think that driving your national debt to GDP ratio from 113% to 175% in the space of five years would solve a debt solvency dilemma, is beyond my comprehension. But if your true purpose was to keep your insolvent banks from going bankrupt, protecting the rich and powerful vested interests, and refusing to accept the consequences of your reckless lending, than the “solutions” make perfect sense.

The dominoes are beginning to fall. The initial spark in 2008 has triggered a series of unyielding responses by those in power, but further emergencies and unintended consequences juxtapose, connect and accelerate a chain reaction that will become uncontainable once a tipping point is reached. The fabric of society is tearing at points of extreme vulnerability, with depression, violence and war on the foreseeable horizon. Mr. President, the shadow of crisis has not passed. The looming shadow of crisis grows ever larger and darker by the day as this Crisis enters the most dangerous phase, where the existing social order will be swept away in a torrent of carnage and ferocious struggle. We are not a chosen people. We are not immune from dire outcomes. There are evil men wielding power and influence over our nation and their actions could lead to tragic consequences. The future course of our country hangs in the balance, as Strauss & Howe so forebodingly warned in 1997:

“History offers no guarantees. Obviously, things could go horribly wrong – the possibilities ranging from a nuclear exchange to incurable plagues, from terrorist anarchy to high-tech dictatorship. We should not assume that Providence will always exempt our nation from the irreversible tragedies that have overtaken so many others: not just temporary hardship, but debasement and total ruin. Losing in the next Fourth Turning could mean something incomparably worse. It could mean a lasting defeat from which our national innocence – perhaps even our nation – might never recover.” –  The Fourth Turning – Strauss & Howe

In Part Three of this article I’ll examine how the seeds of this Crisis were planted during the resolution of the previous Crisis.


  1. Jim, have you ever tried to get something like this published elsewhere? This is brilliant work and deserves to be more widely read. I disagree that darren wilson was a rogue cop. Thumbs up

  2. I can tell you as a computer sci / software developer (for 44 years) – let me tell you about large systems (such as our government with it’s myriad of laws and rules.)

    I’ve worked on many large software systems. Programs are just rule based systems – the data determines the path (the rules) that the program follows – and thus the output of the program.

    When a company grows large enough they need to replace their aging programs – simply because of the scale of transactions, new laws, new products, etc. Fortunate is the company that has the time, materials, talent, cash to accomplish this.

    Recasting a large system is painful – mainly because nobody remembers why all that ‘logic’ is in there. It takes a very long time and you have to run parallel systems to test the old against the new.

    Now to the US where we have probably a million pages of laws and rules. Hell the Affordable Care Act (just the law) is 2,400 pages.

    We have gone down the road of making so many complicated, interlocking laws that nobody really knows what’s happening.

    Our government is even accelerating the number of laws and rules. The next result will be, as stated in the above article:

    “The use of Executive Orders to bypass the U.S. Constitution regarding vital issues, which according to the U.S. Constitution must be approved by Congress, has pushed the country ever closer towards authoritarian rule. The checks and balances of the three branches have been found superfluous by the ruling party. They have set the stage for a president to declare a national emergency where one person can take complete control over the financial system, the internet, phone communications, road networks, and ability to use the military on domestic soil.”

    There’s no way to get anything done. Since the ‘program’ we have built is so large (getting larger) and out of date, and unknowable, it will lead to a governmental collapse, as our leaders pass more and more laws – just to rearrange the chairs on the Titanic.

  3. Thanks Admin.

    These are a few random – very random – thoughts re all this, and re the 4th Turning stuff.

    Re 4th turning – the cycle seems to be 80 years. That is 3 or 4 generations. In previous world history, at any given time perhaps only two or three generations were intermingling, owing to life expectancy. Currently, there are around 4 generations constantly intermingling. I wonder what impact this will have – the youthful vigor, idealism, and naivety of the youth with the old 80 year old curmudgeons? That did not really happen.

    Second, this is the first turning where the bulk of the populace were not farmers. The population is by and large much better exposed to the media than they wee 90 years ago, and they no longer work the land to survive. Will this result in a massive die out? The farm folks were of course slaughtered at a prodigious rate in wars, by despots,, by starvation – both naturally and despotically induced, etc.

    Third, currently the world is at its most peaceful in history, if dying by violence is the metric used. And if the US had not been involved in killing huge numbers in Iraq, the percentage dying by violence would be far lower again. There are rumblings everywhere – but people at this point are not dying violently. Is this about to change in a hurry?

    Will the young have an impact on the turning that prevents the huge amount of violent deaths? They are always the most idealistic in the community, and perhaps they can help prevent large-scale violence. They also seem to have a tendency to riot, so maybe I am wishful thinking here.

    Fourth – the top 10% of the economic population pays just about all the taxes. A huge percentage of the population relies on the transfer of wealth from these folks, directly and indirectly. All welfare transfers rely on those 10%, and all govt expenditures flow from them. In a crisis, this money/funding will dry up. The most productive will be lucky to scramble around and pay for themselves, much less have enough left over to pay for the rest of the community.

    The rest of the community will not have an agricultural base to fall back upon. A great many are old, infirm, or too fat to even waddle out their doors. The govt will be starved of funds in the extreme. Even if family units band together as in the olden days, a great many families do not have the ability to fend. This is going to be a clusterfuck if it eventuates.

    Fifth, many millions of folks are reliant on medicine/medical care to survive. And I am not just talking about the old and infirm. For instance, 26 million Americans have diabetes. In a severe crisis, these folks could almost entirely die off in a very short period of time. Same goes for various other folks with certain diseases – folks with asthma, kidney problems, allergies, etc.

    The reality is that many millions of folks are 100% reliant on the current system for DAILY survival.

    Sixth, what is going to be the impact of not accessing oil in large quantities (that is going to be exciting, now isn’t it). Refining it, shipping it, paying the Ayrabs for it, etc., could be just a teeny bit problematic. Seems to me this will mean war.

    Anyway, those are a few random thoughts off the cuff.

    Thanks again.

  4. Admin is like a bulldozer, flattening out the wall st. Pimps, guberment whores and media liars in one article. Kudos.

    Although, maybe admin is a contrary indicator, and I should reanimate my margin account and double down on Facebook and shakeshack. After all, Cramer is bullish…

    In any case, fork over the shekels you cheap bastards. Donate today. If a cheap bastard like myself can do it you can too.

  5. We shipped out the jobs for some folks – CEO
    We made jobs obsolete for some folks – Machine
    We legislated against folks for some rich folks – Politician
    We permanently liberate some folks – Warmonger
    We brainwashed some folks – Whorenalist


  6. If only the govment lackies were presented this as required reading. If they would, we could possibly change the course, but alas it will never happen. What this article and the comments does bring to mind though is that there are still people out there who clearly see what is happening and that thoughtful readers know that they are not alone with their frustrations and thinking.

  7. I know thirty year ago eleven bucks an hour was great money!! Today, fifteen an hour and if we didn’t raise our own food we’d live on ramen noodles. Just sayin”!

  8. I’m sad .,I think I’m going to kill myself. Someone take care of little bb .Gun to head -Silent -Bang .
    Damn ,sometimes that seems like a fast way out.Only problem is I believe in God.I know judgment cometh. So I guess I will carry on like a good soldier of Faith.

    Anyway another home run Admin.I’m looking forward to reading the last two parts. I’m sure there’s a silver lining somewhere in all the bad news. God bless.

  9. I read the 4th when it came out in trade paperback. 1998? Thereabouts. Tender age of 64. Now I’m 80. I still see no reason to disagree with the authors’ ideas. Good to see that folks can tie it to what’s now going on in this world we’re stuck with.

    It’s obvious that I’ve observed a lot in these 80 years. 🙂 I eased into the prepping thing back in the 1980s, and have been in the bullion business since 1966. Call it a form of self-defense beyond that of skill with weaponry. A lot fewer worries than most folks, during these twilight years.

    Interesting times, for sure.

  10. I’ve offered this up before but am going to do so again. I urge readers of this site to read this––, because its implications are very serious. The author of the article is a former Fed EVP and a major player in a money management fund for hnw individuals. If what he suggests comes to pass, believe me, the noose will tighten and fourth turning or no fourth turning, the consequences will be very detrimental to all of you from what I can judge. I would love to believe that John/Jane Q. Citizen will benefit from an overturning of the status quo, but I don’t. Maybe y’all can fight city hall, but I haven’t seen it work yet in my 68 years. I’d bet that nearly no one wants to see a collapse, and in fact I’ve made my bets accordingly. Y’all have spirit and gumption, but I fear you’re greatly outnumbered and would suggest you plan accordingly, which means to me that your best bet is to downsize to the degree possible and stay under the radar.

  11. On the first part of the article, Stuck made mention of how hard it would have been to support a family on a few cents a day. I have no idea how my grandparents survived.

    One set of grandparents came from the dustbowl of Oklahoma. They resorted to sending their kids out to work or by farming them off to others. My dad was not so much abandoned as shunted off to others at the age of nine. His parents, may they rest in hell, could not afford to keep him, or so they said. By the time he was twelve he was independent. His experiences were wondrous to hear, but the scars never healed. He was a true survivor, and I never knew him to be unable to accomplish whatever he set his mind to. It was really somewhat discouraging as a kid to see him do so many things that I knew I would never be able to do. He had to be able in order to survive. And able he was. But it was a cruel, horrible way of learning that he was forced into.

    My mother’s family was somewhat more fortunate. They were more stable, more caring for their family. They hung together during the bad times. Their children thrived for the most part, and all did pretty well in life. They had better educational backgrounds, better family backgrounds.

    My dad’s family were illiterate dustbowl Indians, from a long line of such. From generation to generation the sins of the father were passed down. My dad largely broke the chain with how he kept his family together. My mom’s family was working class, and the difference in upbringing, family values, value of education, etc., between her family and my dad’s was striking indeed.

    So, from personal experience, I can say that in hard times it is critical that families stick together. I can also say that valuing education, thrift, hard-work, etc., pays off generationally. That even if a family is dirt poor and hungry, by hanging on to family and by being of good character, opportunities arise for the benefit of the subsequent generations.

    Severe crisis/depressions will have devastating consequences. But these things can and generally do pass – eventually. The key is to survive it, and for families to take care of each other generationally. Some will meet the challenge, and others not. In the end, character will tell.

  12. To newbie TBPers, the above anonymous is the draft-dodging, goat-fucking nutjob we all know as David Pierre – or DP for short.


    This is him and his dadbrothercousin.


  13. I see the infamous offender’s comment was deleted whilst I was composing the below. I’m posting this anyway cuz I went to the trouble of creating it.

    Look what the cat drug in….David Pierre.


  14. I came to this site because James Quinn was published in Market Oracle UK. He is circulating in with the big boys. Really good stuff Mr. Quinn.

  15. “The level of advertising and movies glorifying the military as protecting us from ever looming threats, despite the fact no country on earth could possibly invade our country, has been thunderous as the deep state uses propaganda techniques to sway the easily manipulated.”

    The first and third parts of this I absolutely agree with. The second part, that no one else could invade us, has two issues:
    1) We are being constantly invaded from the south. This is almost identical to the anglo-saxon invasion of England in the 8th and 9th centuries. It wasn’t a sudden military conquest, but rather a bunch of settlement that fundamentally changed the nation. Politicians are encouraging rather than fighting this invasion.
    2) Our military was mighty in the recent past, but it is an increasingly hollow shell today. It may be that in just a few years we are unable to stop a conventional invasion from a force that we think of as inferior today, such as China or Russia. It’s the fault of our damn politicians, again.

  16. Star, Quinn has built in animus toward rogue cops and it blinds him sometimes. Darren Wilson was a victim of the MSM most on this site despise. Any objective observer could look at the tape and see that the takedown of the cigarette vendor was actually pretty non violent as police work goes.

  17. Overthecliff, wilson is the ferguson cop that shot mike brown. While I agree with you that the brooklyn takedown was not particularly violent, I don’t think that anything to do with tax issues, especially something as petty as selling loose cigarettes, EVER rises to the level that a cop can touch you. Whitey may not know it, that is a common practice in every ghetto in america. It’s not heroin

  18. + 1000 admin….”The number of people on food stamps in 2009, at the height of the worst recession since the 1930s, was 33 million. Today, five years into the “economic recovery”, the number of people on food stamps is 47 million.”

    Well at least the %1 is hanging on..

    Jeb Bush’s eye-popping event: $100K per ticket
    NEW YORK — Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush will raise money on Wall Street on Wednesday at an eye-popping $100,000 per-ticket Park Avenue event hosted by private equity mogul Henry Kravis and his wife.

    The price of admission to the event, which will raise funds for Bush’s “Right to Rise” super PAC, surprised even Wall Street veterans used to high-dollar fundrais

    Read more:

    Go R-Team! The common man’s candidate Jeb will restore ‘Murica!

  19. Back-to-back tour de force articles on consecutive days, and two more coming … it’s making my head spin.

    Admin should put these together in a book with the title ‘Man, of man, are we ever fucked!’. It would be a bestseller.

    I hope every major Libertarian blog picks these up. I wish at least 20 million Patriots in America would read them.

    Debate on National Teevee: Quinn vs Obama ……… wouldn’t THAT be fuckin’ AWESOME???

    I hope that Llpoh is noticing, and appreciating, that I am not posting any fucking fluff during this time. 🙂

  20. “currently the world is at its most peaceful in history, if dying by violence is the metric used”

    First, the qualifier “in history” indicates a very long time. Hardly anyone died in wars in the year 481AD. So, I’m going to assume Llpoh likely meant something more recent … let’s say since 1900.

    Even so, the comment doesn’t seem quite correct. Just look at the CURRENT conflicts around the world.

    BUT … just a little more research proves that he is correct.

    “Year by year death toll of the century’s atrocities:”

    Here, in case it doesn’t show up, or is too large

  21. Llpoh,
    look at China’s Red Guards if you want an idea of what young, idealistic people do in social mood downturns.

    And the low levels of violent death worldwide are a parallel symptom of stock market highs answer the ebullient social mood they illustrate.

    The rate of violent death that should accompany a coming social mood nadir….well….I don’t want to even think about it.

  22. Lloph and TBP,

    Of course it is going to be a custerfuck. The old and young will have a huge die off. I can’t imagine that I could even grow 75% of the food I need. I have the assets and the tools needed for survival, but age has its consequences. We as a population have such a narrow skill level, that taking care of yourself will be near impossible.

    I think the suicide rate would be very high also, as when life gets very hard, people get very depressed.

  23. Nature cannot be thwarted.

    Nature is the ultimate carrot and stick. Choose wisely and prosper, choose poorly and die. Some luck is involved, too, and it is that arbitrariness that induces people to seek collectivist protections from “bad luck” which end up rewarding stupid behavior.

    Nature’s “stick” (the suffering and death of pursuing stupid paths) is not eliminated by “welfare state social safety nets,” it is simply dammed up and accumulates in a vast reservoir.

    For a century people have been taught, by thwarting of Nature’s Lessons, that “anything goes.” Vast numbers were taught to stop parenting, stop behaving in reserved, prudent ways, live solely in the present. They were told that food comes in wrappers and is microwaved (home cooking) or it comes from a drive-through window. They were taught that their masters in government will see to their well being.

    Natural selection will make a massive comeback in coming decades.

    PS: Most of those with type 2 diabetes will be just fine. Type 2 is a disease of TOO MUCH FOOD, especially carbs, and this will not be a problem in a few years, or so I suspect. Type 1 versions will be screwed, as will be the aged and the completely helpless.

    Intelligence matters. Only people above a certain level of intelligence plan. Truly stupid people have no carry-over from day to day, and do not give any consideration to the future. This renders them unfit to survive in any but the most forgiving environments, and I suspect that we’re ending the period where the truly stupid have the same (or better) reproductive and survival success as the intelligent.

  24. Far more than The Fourth Turning, I think Prechter’s Socionomics explains which is chicken and which is egg when it comes to major trend changes in human social behavior.

    The fantastic correlation between stocks and warfare (and how STOCKS LEAD, they do not follow, “events,”) is the Poster Child for this.

    The bottom line is that social mood has been PINNING THE NEEDLE to the high for 20 years. “Buy and Hold Forever” is so ingrained that to challenge this dogma will get you laughed out of any office or bar on the planet.

    This shows that in log terms, the long-term chart of stocks has spent a long time at the highs but that the seemingly HUGE rallies of 2003-2007 and 2009 to now are small potatoes compared to what came before. We’re just waffling around near the highs, awaiting Social Mood’s change.

    Timing the change in trend has eluded EVERYONE. But no trend lasts forever, and during the late stages of a long trend, the conditions that drive the trend weaken visibly. This essay chronicles the rot, the complete suppuration of the engines of rally…and it remains only a question of when, when will the uptrend finally give way to a FULL bear market of the magnitude required (a Grand Supercycle Bear Market), one FULL DEGREE larger than the bear market that set off the Great Depression and encompassed two world wars as bookends.

  25. When the trend rolls over (finally) and we march to the eventual lows, people will express their desire to rip others apart in any ways offered (war, chaos, etc.).

    Others will simply give up. If you think mothers murdering their children, or fathers murdering their families and then eating a bullet is a trend now, just wait.

    Japan’s downturn is 25 years and counting, and their suicide rate is off the charts. They haven’t hit nadir yet, either.

    Suicide will soon be the leading cause of death in the USA, first among young adults, then eventually among the elderly. People in the middle may find creating ways to kill each other…, or the demons who rise to power will incinerate half of us in nuclear firestorms.

  26. Jim:
    Add to your reading list The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich by William Shirer – a very long read – near 1000 pgs and having just started to read it – this book dovetails nicely wiht Guns of August. Just a suggestion for those who read your site…… Ps. I just read Guns of August by B. Tuchman – a GREAT and I mean GREAT read!

    1. rj chiciago

      I read Shirer’s book when I was in high school for fun. I devoured history books back then. Guns of August is a classic and shows you how unintended consequences can lead to disaster.

  27. @Admin, I was sensing some killer 4th Turning posts were coming and you didn’t disappoint. You are preaching to the choir, but looking at the number of new names who are commenting, the choir is growing, so keep reminding us of what’s ahead. Part One was short and succinct–the perfect lead-in to Part Two which has all the statistics to convince anyone with 1/2 a brain that we are in deep doo-doo.

    @Stucky, surprised you haven’t read the book yet, since much of what Admin posts here at TBP is predicated on the principles in that great tome.

    So many good comments that I can’t really add much. The global warming smack-down of Baby Boomer Professor was fun to see play out (sensetti, you rock!). But to be honest, even though I’m not convinced of anthropogentic global warming, the climate IS and DOES periodically change, and there may well be a consequence to the arctic ice melt with regard to methane (although the antarctic ice buildup continues at record levels).

    I e-mailed Guy McPherson ( to ask if his theories of human extinction that are based on human-caused CO2 and methane release are now in question since the latest news is that the data was falsified over the last couple of decades. His reply was that those reports were lies. Well I can’t respect someone who doesn’t adapt to new information, or at least consider that his work is built on corrupted data. When science gets polluted like this, it’s impossible to find the truth of this matter.

    Somebody mentioned stashing food/guns/ammo only to get their house burned down by thugs. How true! Protecting what you have will be very difficult. Read the scenarios in “Lights Out”, “One Second After”, “Patriots”…I’m addicted to this genre at the moment.

    There are other things to keep an eye on…Fukushima radiation exposure is huge, for example.

    It’s apparent to me that the pace is quickening. This house of cards can’t hold up much longer. It’s simply amazing how the guv continues to lie to us, bombard us with new regulations and rules, and manages to not crumble under it’s own weight. That link to TSA demanding passports within our own border is disturbing, and I’m sure most of you see that a new CyberSecurity agency is being put together by Obummer. Probably the fruition of “Total Security Awareness” from years ago.

  28. For those with a conspiracy bend (me included) this interpretation of “The World in 2015” issue of The Economist magazine cover is freaky. The PTB, Illuminati, etc., supposedly have some “rule” that says they must convey in advance what they are going to do to us (re: all those movies that have scenarios that come true in real life). This video is long, but the first 10 minutes or so describes hidden meanings all over the cover of that magazine issue.


  29. many students of history have written on the cycles they all seem to find~ cycles in culture, economics, war… everything. seeking understanding of ourselves and our tribes and our place… also runs in cycles. management of the “matrix” is at historical highs in contrast to previous elite abilities, thanks to global dominance of money and mass media: the usurers have returned the babylonian woe to a new empire once again, and there is church to drive them from the temple- and soon, as retold in revelations, “on that day…no money could buy anything.” and the fires and the deaths began. many christian soldiers are ready- are you?

  30. @Stucky “Second, there was a thread dedicated to the Economist cover.”

    As much as I’d like to, I can’t keep up with every thread on TBP.

  31. “As much as I’d like to, I can’t keep up with every thread on TBP. ” ——- Rise Up

    I understand that. Wasn’t trying to be a smart-ass or anything …. just trying to help … and since you like conspiracies, I thought you’d like that thread.

    Peace, bro.

  32. And it’s not so much that I like conspiracies, it’s just that they can teach you so many things. It’s part of the search for truth.

  33. Stuck – by history, I meant in the entire history of mankind. As I understand it, as a percentage of population, fewer people die violently than at any other time – ever.

  34. The Australian nonprofit group Vision of Humanity produces an annual list called the Global Peace Index, which ranks 144 nations according to how they stand on 23 different indicators of peace. The Top 5 most peaceful countries today

    1 — New Zealand
    2 — Denmark
    3 — Norway
    4 — Iceland
    5 — Austria
    83 — USA!USA!USA!

    1)—- Probably the most peaceful era is the 200 year era of Pax Romana

    2)—- A thousand years after the Pax Romana, another era of international peace was established. Throughout the Eurasian continent, an empire arose that had advanced technology and a strong economy and protected thousands of miles of trade routes. In fact, it was this empire that enabled Marco Polo to travel by land from his home in Italy to China. Yes, believe it or not, it was the fearsome Genghis Khan, unifier of the Mongol hordes, who established the largest — and one of the most peaceful — kingdoms in history.

    3)—- There’s still another era to consider: the one we’re living in RIGHT NOW. Certainly, there’s no shortage of war around the world, not to mention famine, disease and economic struggle. However, some analysts believe that despite these shortcomings, the world as a whole is relatively more peaceful now than it ever has been before.

    all comments from here —->

  35. Glad to see Stuck post something that sort of at least agrees with me. I have overcome my shock, and can now resume posting.

    Some more background on percent of people dying violent deaths:

    “You are less likely to die a violent death today than at any other time in human history. In fact, violence has been declining for centuries. That is the arresting claim made by Harvard University cognitive neuroscientist Steven Pinker in his new book, The Better Angels of Our Nature: Why Violence Has Declined (Viking)”

    “By examining collections of ancient skeletons and scrutinizing contemporary tribal societies, anthropologists have found that people were nine times as likely to die violent deaths in the prehistoric period than in modern times, even allowing for the world wars and genocides of the 20th century. Europe’s murder rate was 30 times higher in the Middle Ages than it is today.”

    “But a better question may be, “How bad was the world in the past?”

    Believe it or not, the world of the past was much worse. Violence has been in decline for thousands of years, and today we may be living in the most peaceable era in the existence of our species. ”

    “These investigations show that, on average, about 15% of people in prestate eras died violently, compared to about 3% of the citizens of the earliest states. Tribal violence commonly subsides when a state or empire imposes control over a territory, leading to the various “paxes” (Romana, Islamica, Brittanica and so on) that are familiar to readers of history. ”

    “The rate of documented direct deaths from political violence (war, terrorism, genocide and warlord militias) in the past decade is an unprecedented few hundredths of a percentage point. Even if we multiplied that rate to account for unrecorded deaths and the victims of war-caused disease and famine, it would not exceed 1%. ”

    So, again I wonder if this overall trend toward more peaceful societies will limit the carnage of the next crisis. Maybe, maybe not.

    I suspect it is much more likely there will be severe die-offs due to economic issues, inability to source energy, over-extension of natural resources, Africa suffering severe famine when foreign aid dries up, etc.

    1. Llpoh

      It makes you wonder why we need so many police and need to spend $1 trillion per year on the military if the world is the most peaceful in history.

  36. I do not wonder – I know. We gots to support the military industrial complex. It is a hammer eternally looking for a nail.

    Imagine what the recent deaths by violence rate would have been if the US had minded its own business and stayed out of Iraq, Afghanistan, etc ad infinitum? The US sure is delivering some peace to the world, yessir.

  37. “Glad to see Stuck post something that sort of at least agrees with me.” ——–Llpoh

    I agree with about 95% of what you write.

    But how many “Hey, Llpoh, right on, brutha!” posts can I write before SSS tells us to get a room?

    I like disagreeing with you on the 5% because ….. you ENGAGE …. say stuff like “fuck off, asshole” … which gets me all warm & fuzzy, really.

  38. Stuck – I just revisited my “fuck you, asshole” comment to see the thumb count, out of curiosity. It marginally has more down than up. You original comment slightly more up than down.

    I remember the time that my comment would have been applauded and cheered – not because the monkeys were choosing sides. But because they were wanting a huge shitstorm to erupt, for the entertainment value of it. They would have applauded your initial comment, and cheered the response, in hopes that WW3 was about to break out.

    The current batch of monkeys are soft, soft I tell you. There has not been a good war in ages.

    This is more what a common response used to be:


    Today, if someone senses they have given offense, this is more likely what they will post:


    A lot of these folks need to understand when:


  39. “I remember the time that my comment would have been applauded and cheered – not because the monkeys were choosing sides. But because they were wanting a huge shitstorm to erupt, for the entertainment value of it. They would have applauded your initial comment, and cheered the response, in hopes that WW3 was about to break out.” ————–Llpoh

    Yes, yes, yes …. a thousand time yes.

    I have noticed — just lately, mind you — that some folks are losing their sense of humor. Even SSS seems to be more sensitive than normal.

    I KNEW my snarky comment would be met by an even snarkier one by you. I smiled when I say the ‘fuck you, asshole’. Even gave it a thumbs up! Seriously.

  40. Stuck – figured that would be your response. Your comment deserved more than a blow me, I figured.

    Just fun. But the monkeys lack a sense of humor. I was stunned to see either comment got a thumbs down. I thought they both were hilarious.

    Oh well.

  41. Excellent article, I do get a chuckle over statements about out losing our innocence though. America has about as much innocence left as a 55 year old crack cocaine addicted hooker.

  42. Anybody here discussing and exchanging some usefull advice other than a few boiling frogs describing the water temperature?

    Seriously, perma-commenters, do you REALLY understand and believe the message in these articles? Are you motivated to get through the times ahead, or are you okay with you and your family being roadkill? Don’t have to leave the states to up your chances, but you do have to get self-sufficient, continually learn more basic skills, and educate yourself on survival without technology. The technological disruption will be slow, and then all at once.

    Get out of debt
    Get out of cities
    Learn fundamental skills
    Diminish your dependence upon systems for survival
    Educate yourselves
    Get fit, stay healthy, work hard, make like-minded friends, not internet mental fuck-buddies.

    I’m an ex-yank on my own farm in NZ, growing my own food, non-flouride water from my own bore, no TV msm brainwashing bullshit, saving up for solar when the price/payback goes green. Guns for hunting not private property protection. Swapping extra pasture with other farmers for lamb and venison cuts. Make our own wine, which we sell and also swap for organic olive oil and pit fruits, nuts, seeds etc that we don’t grow.
    We’re breathing clean air and seeing billions of stars every night. It’s far from impossible, matter of fact it’s rather fun, liberating and builds good community networks.

    Or just sit around bitching about it and talking tough till you and you’re family are toast.

  43. Civil unrest …….. just an empty SNAP card away.

    You people who post here have too much time on your hands. Please work harder so these chill’un don’t have to starve.

  44. You made your case. But…you’re preaching to the choir. It’s Bubbus Americanus that still believes in government and that’s the problem. They are placing their hopes and dreams in a false reality. Soon, they will awaken from their slumber (some will) and wonder how they got in the position that they are in.

    If the people don’t pay close attention to the rudder, the ship of state will soon run aground. Letting others (think professional politicians) determine the course of the nation, instead of taking responsibility your selves has led you to your folly. These leaders are menial men, concerned with their own self interest. There are exceptions, Ron Paul for one.

    The rewards of what you have sown (your country has sown) over the last 80 years is about to be reaped.

    Have you been good stewards of the soil???

  45. “Have you been good stewards of the soil???” I fear not. There is a choice to be made. You either choose yes or you either choose no to what is happening today–to you. There’s no middle ground.

    When the battle lines are drawn and the opponents face off. It is the middle ground where the carnage occurs. If you think that, you can seek the safety of the middle ground and see who is winning the battle before you commit to it. You may find to your surprise, that the tide of battle has turned against you. For you are alined against both sides.

    You can choose God or the other fellow, there is no middle ground. Choose wisely. Let it be said that you, chose wisely.

    In this battle of Good and Evil, there are consequences to saying No and there are consequences to saying Yes and there are consequences to remaining undecided. Not deciding is a choice, too.

    Today, it is put before you, Good and Evil. Choose thou!


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