Fourth Turnings are driven by the mood of the populations. The Russians will not be backing down. Misjudgement will lead to war. Obama is a dangerous moron.
Guest Post by The Saker
One example if in the Russian social media and the blogosphere. Today, a reader posted a link to a Russian video (thanks!) which I want to post here and I will add a video I saw earlier.
Please watch these videos and don’t be too quick to dismiss them as irrelevant. They are an expression of the mood of a big part of the Russian society which has mentally already entered what I would call a “war mode”. To ignore these “social warning” would be a huge mistake. I have been saying that over and over again, Russia is ready for war. It gives me no pleasure to say that (actually it scares me), but I think that this warning must be circulated as widely as possible: Russia will not “blink” and Russia will not surrender. Russia will not attack first – that is utter nonsense – but if she is attacked, she will strike back with everything she has.
Ukrainians Rage Against Military Draft: “We’re Sick Of This War”
Submitted by Justin Raimondo via Anti-War.com,
When Ukrainian army officers came to the Ukrainian village of Velikaya Znamenka to tell the men to prepare to be drafted, they weren’t prepared for what happened next. As the commanding officer was speaking, a woman seized the microphone and proceeded to tell him off: “We’re sick of this war! Our husbands and sons aren’t going anywhere!” She then launched into a passionate speech, denouncing the war, and the coup leaders in Kiev, to the cheers of the crowd.
What she did is now a crime in Ukraine: the only reason she wasn’t arrested on the spot is that the villagers wouldn’t have permitted it. But in Ukrainian Transcarpathia, well-known journalist for Ukrainian Channel 112 Ruslan Kotsaba has been arrested and charged with “treason” and “espionage” for making a video in which he declared: “I would rather sit in jail for three to five years than go to the east to kill my Ukrainian brothers. This fear-mongering must be stopped.” Kotsaba may sit in jail for twenty-three years, the prescribed term for the charges filed against him.
Kotsaba’s arrest is part of a desperate effort by the Ukrainian government to intimidate the growing antiwar and anti-draft movement, which threatens to upend Kiev’s dreams of conquering the rebellious eastern provinces. Kotsaba’s particular crime, according to prosecutors, was in describing the conflict as a civil war rather than a Russian “invasion.” This is a point the authorities cannot tolerate: the same meme being relentlessly broadcast by the Western media – that an indigenous rebellion with substantial support is really a Russian plot to “subvert” Ukraine and reestablish the Warsaw Pact – now has the force of law in Ukraine. Anyone who contradicts it is subject to arrest.
Also subject to arrest, and worse: the thousands who are fleeing the country in order to avoid being conscripted into the military. In a Facebook post that was quickly deleted, Defense Minister Stepan Poltorak wrote: “According to unofficial sources, hostels and motels in border regions of neighboring Romania are completely filled with draft dodgers.” President Petro Poroshenko, the Chocolate Oligarch, is readying a decree imposing possible restrictions on foreign travel for those of draft age – which means anyone from age 25 to 60. Ukrainians may soon be prisoners in their own country – but they aren’t taking it lying down.
Draft resistance is at an all-time high: a mere 6 percent of those called up have reported voluntarily. This has forced the Kiev authorities to go knocking on doors – where they are met either with a mass of angry villagers, who refuse to let them take anyone, or else ghost towns where virtually everyone has fled. In the Transcarpathia region of western Ukraine, entire villages have been emptied, the inhabitants fleeing to Russia to wait out the war – or the fall of the Kiev regime, whichever comes first. “It may seem a paradox,” says Transcarpathia’s chief recruitment officer, “but from the western Ukrainian region of Ternopyl people have fled to Russia in order to escape army conscription.” The frantic Ukrainian regime is now contemplating conscripting women over 20.
Poroshenko’s military mobilization is due not only to numerous setbacks in the east – Ukrainian troops are being pushed back on all fronts by highly motivated rebels defending their own towns and villages – but also because thousands are deserting, throwing down their arms and fleeing to Russia. In response, the Ukrainian parliament has passed a law authorizing local commanders to shoot deserters on the spot.
With Poroshenko’s war looking like a major disaster, one that could easily topple his EU/US-installed regime, the War Party in the US is turning up the heat, demanding that Washington provide Kiev with arms. Sen. John McCain is – naturally – leading the charge, but prominent liberals are also in the front ranks, with leading scholars of the Brookings Institution recently calling for heavy weapons to be sent. That provoked a response from a dissident within Brookings, former State Department official Jeremy Shapiro, who argues that the Ukrainian conflict is a civil war that cannot have a military solution, and is more than likely to provoke a dangerous military confrontation with Russia.
The Obama administration is under considerable pressure from within the President’s own party to start arming the Ukrainian army, but America’s European allies are reluctant to let this war go on much longer, especially now that their sock puppet Poroshenko is increasingly unpopular. With protests erupting all over western Ukraine, Germany’s Angela Merkel is openly opposing escalation of the war. She made that clear at a recent conference in Munich, where Merkel spoke after returning from talks with Russia’s Vladimir Putin and French President Francois Hollande. Meanwhile, on the sidelines, McCain was telling reporters: “If we had provided Ukraine with weapons they wouldn’t have had to use cluster bombs.”
They don’t call him “Mad John” for nothing.
The United States is providing the Kiev regime with military training, and we already have American boots on the ground there, ostensibly to “strengthen the rule of law.” What that means in practice is that we are bolstering a government that has declared war on its own people, and is rapidly closing off all legal means of dissent – charging political opponents with “treason,” banning political parties, and unleashing ultra-nationalist mobs on anyone who dares dissent. While the US State Department regularly canoodles with Russian “dissidents” who defile Orthodox churches and bare their breasts for the Western cameras, you won’t hear Marie Harf so much as mention Ruslan Kotsaba’s name. As far as I know, the Global Post is the only Western media outlet that has noted his existence – and I’ve not seen a single mention in English about his arrest.
Ukraine is a tripwire that could easily set off World War III – and US provocations are edging closer to that by the day. The crisis was initiated by Washington’s regime-change campaign which succeeded in violently overthrowing elected President Viktor Yanukovych, whose electoral victory was made possible by the criminal incompetence and outright thievery of his predecessor, US-supported Viktor Yushchenko. The so-called “Orange Revolution” led to economic chaos, rampant corruption, and the unleashing of a virulent nationalist current that has culminated in the rise of open neo-Nazis taking seats in the Ukrainian parliament. We are seeing its openly fascistic culmination in the current gang lording over Kiev.
All this was done in the name of sticking a finger in Vladimir Putin’s eye, whose great sin has been kicking out thieving oligarchs and opposing US pretensions to global hegemony. Washington’s ultimate goal is regime-change in the Kremlin, and the reinstallation of a Yeltsin-like sock puppet who, when Washington says “Jump!”, will answer: “How high?”
That they’re willing to risk World War III in order to achieve their goal underscores the sheer craziness of US foreign policy. The latest official US “National Security Strategy” puts the new cold war at the center of Washington’s military-diplomatic vision – an emphasis so monstrously misplaced that it’s hard to believe they’re serious. Yet you had better believe it: this is what we can expect from a future Democratic administration, if one should come to pass, with Hillary Clinton taking her husband’s Slavophobia – remember the Kosovo war? – to new heights of unreason.
The US has no business interfering in Ukraine’s civil war, and no legitimate security interest in the question of who gets to administer Crimea – which has been Russian since the days of Catherine the Great. The idea that we are going to confront Russia over this issue is dangerous nonsense – and, unfortunately, it is just the sort of nonsense politicians of both parties find hard to resist.
There are even some ostensible “libertarians” who can’t resist the temptation to refight the cold war, notably the voluble and well-placed NATO-tarian faction of “Students for Liberty” (SFL), who denounced Ron Paul for his supposedly “pro-Putin” (i.e. anti-interventionist) statements on Ukraine. Ron is appearing at their upcoming “International Conference,” with several of the loudest NATO-tarians in attendance: one hopes he’ll give them a good talking to, although perhaps a spanking is more appropriate for these noisy brats. These juvenile blatherskites claim “Compelling arguments can be made for both advocates of globalist and noninterventionist foreign policy positions,” but aver that “Ron Paul has crossed the line.” It is they who have crossed the line: no libertarian is or can be an advocate of a “globalist” foreign policy – because conquering the globe is, you know, a statist thing.
Of course now that Ukraine – where SFL held a conference – is jailing draft-resisters and clamping down on all dissent, we don’t hear a peep from these adolescent cold warriors. They talk a lot about “liberty,” but not in places where it can get them into trouble.
The main danger to liberty and peace in the world isn’t in the Kremlin, or Peking, or North Korea – it’s right here in these United States of America, in the global epicenter of evil otherwise known as Washington, D.C. This, our “libertarian internationalists” claim, is vulgar “anti-Americanism,” but these foreigners have little conception of what true Americanism is all about. The Founding Fathers of this country are rolling in their graves as the usurpers in Washington sully the good name of America with the blood of innocents worldwide and defile the Constitution in the process. True Americanism means opposing these monsters as they rampage over the earth and destroy our civil liberties at home – not dutifully echoing their rationalizations for endless wars of aggression.
a half-honky girlie man ,a German dyke and a french puddler all threatening a martial-minded sociopath with ultimatum .This does not bode well for the rest of US.
Kremlin: No one can speak to Putin in ultimatum-like tone
President Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, on Monday said: “We’ve already said everything about the tone of the negotiations. No one has ever spoken or can speak to the president in an ultimatum-like tone much as one would like to.”
The comments come in response to a report published by the Wall Street Journal a day earlier, where it was claimed that German Chancellor Angela Merkel has given Putin until February 11 to agree to the peace plan for Ukraine, or face more sanctions.
The report, which cited unnamed Western officials, further noted that the German chancellor also told the Russian leader during the late-night talks in the Kremlin on February 6 that she would not oppose to Washington’s sending military hardware to Ukraine.
The leaders of Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France are slated to convene in the Belarusian capital city of Minsk on Wednesday to revive an earlier deal inked between the sides involved in the Ukrainian crisis and tamp down the flare-up of violence in eastern Ukraine.
http://english.irib.ir/news/world/europe/item/204447-kremlin-no-one-can-speak-to-putin-in-ultimatum-like-tone
Russia has put it out there that they are ready to hit the Saudis with an EMP attack. That would totally disrupt Saudi oil production which would be a brilliant move on their part until the EU and US go full retard on them. Bad news for gas prices at that point.
Seriously a leadership of half-honky homos and gender confused femi-nazis do not want to fuck with this man. They don’t have a strategic nut sack between ’em , so why challenge one who does?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3E1aZlADRQU
[img]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZjmiyOgO66g[/img]
Watch This Reaction: Putin Laughs Right In This Journalist’s Face
I’ll move this over here.
The United States and the Saudi’s are handling Russia. The Saudis increased oil production again last week in the face of falling prices. Oil is Russia’s economic engine, crash the price of oil and the Russian Bear will hit her knees. Russia is the one being backed into a corner with little recourse other than War. Low oil prices brought Russia down once, we will see if happens twice, time will tell.
From article –> Russia will not attack first – that is utter nonsense – but if she is attacked, she will strike back with everything she has.
Russia has been attacked by falling oil prices. If the price of oil remains low for an extended period of time Russia is in big trouble. Russia will attack at some point somewhere or she will be degraded to a shell of her present self.
I believe Russia learned a lesson from the last time the West and OPEC crashed the oil prices and the USSR disintegrated. I don’t think they will let it happen twice without a war.
Dropping Oil Prices And Sanctions Are Hurting Russia To The Tune Of $140 Billion
Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said that Russia could expect to lose between $90 and $100 billion a year from the global drop in oil prices, and $40 billion from the sanctions imposed by the United States and the European Union.
“We’re losing around $40 billion a year because of geopolitical sanctions, and about $90 billion to $100 billion from oil prices falling by 30 percent,” Siluanov told reporters assembled at a news conference on Monday. And some economists peg those numbers as conservative, due to the weakness of Russia’s currency, the rouble, and how costly it actually is for companies banned from borrowing outside of Russia.
“The main issue that affects the budget and economy and financial system, this is the price of oil and the fall in monetary flows from the sale of energy resources,” the finance minister continued.
Link for above
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/11/25/3596403/russia-oil-prices-sanctions-140-billion/
neo-con fantasies of beggaring russia with cheap oil are so progtard. “those nasty homophobes must pay!!” our euro-pals are already moving away from the foaming at the mouth “policies” blathered daily on the cathedral media: the western hegemony is dead, it flails about in ever increasing spasms of melodrama while all the world boos the “hero”. let us pray they do not wish to kill the audience so they can save it from those “evil roosians”.
and- deflationary oil is a symptom of the dying debt money we created- maybe the saudis are in on it – or not – real facts/ numbers are hard to find, but martin armstrong and other respected economists would discount the idea that there is less oil coming out of saudi- witness many rented tankers filling up on cheap oil by speculators, hoping the price comes back. it probably will. the russians do not have debt. they have a united citizenry willing to suffer to defeat the west- we have nothing except our overinflated pride to lead us to our fall.
I am watching this thing play out in utter disbelief. Does the caramel-colored mulatto in the White House really think he can play games with the Russians? And his “advisers”, a gang of poofters, canyon yodelers, high yella nigras who should be selling their booty on Bourbon Street, smarmy Ivy League punks, soft-handed, prissy faced generals, bottom-dealing Democratic shit heel politicians and, last but not least, that absurd creature with the homo haystack hair, mule face and cringe-inducing lack of decency, gravitas and common sense, Kerry-Cohen, what the hell are they thinking?
Putin has no intention of nuking us nor does he have to. He knows the EU has zero intention of fighting a war with Russia and no amount of U.S. aid, lethal or not, can change the facts on the ground. He is going to recognize the Donbass as independent and later absorb it at his leisure. He will simply pee and poop on the idiots who provoked this farce in the first place.
NATO is a joke. They don’t have the hardware to stop a Russian attack, much less the will. Does anyone think that the Polish or the German people fancy having Russians swarm over their countries again?
The only nations with any semblance of a military are the UK, France and Germany. Here are some numbers in the same order:
From the site; http://westernhero.blogspot.com/2014/03/the-european-order-of-battle.htm
………………..UK – France – Germany……………….
Manpower: 387,330/424,426/328,000
Tanks: 407/423/408
Armored Fighting Vehicles: 6,245/7,290/4,279
Self Propelled Guns: 89/149/185
Towed Artillery: 138/750/0
Rocket Projectors (MLRS): 56/60/252
Total Aircraft: 908/1,203/710
Helicopters: 362/561/401
Aircraft Carriers:1/1/0
Frigates: 13/22/12
Destroyers:6/0/0
Corvettes:0/0/5
Submarines:11/1/4
Coastal Craft: 24/14/8
Mine Warfare: 15/18/15
Okay, now here’s Russia:
Manpower: 3,000,000
Tanks: 15,500
Armored Fighting Vehicles: 27,607
Self Propelled Guns: 5,990
Towed Artillery: 4,625
Rocket Projectors (MLRS): 3,781
Total Aircraft: 3,082
Helicopters: 973
Aircraft Carriers: 1
Frigates: 4
Destroyers: 13
Corvettes: 74
Submarines: 63
Coastal Craft: 65
Mine Warfare: 34
The EU and NATO want to fuck with that? I seriously doubt it. The situation would go nuclear almost right away, as was war planned by the Pentagon decades ago.
We say it often enough, but occasionally it really hits you just how idiotic/psycopathic peeps like McCain/Obama/Clinton/et al actually are. It’s good to be optimistic but difficult to imagine this ending well.
T4C
VT contends that Putin is possibly going to release satellite proof about 9/11. That would be interesting to say the least. Might tone down the war drums.
bl and t4c,
I agree with giant grains of salt when reading Gordon (he gives pcg no cred. Maybe he’s right. Thoughts admin?) if 20% of what he writes is real, we live in bizarro world (we do).
Side note: Maybe I don’t look in the right places but I’ve seen no reaction from Russia about our new stance with Cuba.
T4C
Low Oil prices are choking Russia hard. All I’am saying is do you think Vlad will just sit on his hands while the Russian economy is crushed by artificially low oil prices? The Saudis can pump oil longer than the Russian economy can stand. Look at the hit it’s already taken in the last six months give it 12 or 24 more months and see how they fair.
Russia’s economy is teetering on the verge of recession. The central bank says it expects the next two years to bring no growth. Inflation is on the rise. The rouble has lost 30% of its value since the start of the year, and with it the faith of the country’s businessmen. Banks have been cut off from Western capital markets, and the price of oil—Russia’s most important export commodity—has fallen hard. Consumption, the main driver of growth in the previous decade, is slumping. Money and people are leaving the country.
http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21633816-more-decade-oil-income-and-consumer-spending-have-delivered-growth-vladimir-putins
‘Twas I above
I meant pcr not Phillip Christopher Griffin from King of Prussia. My bad…
Sensetti…Saudis have no leverage over Russia. A camel humping a bear will not prevail. As the old cliche of .keep fucking around and sooner or later you’re going to get fucked up still stands true today.
How Russia Plans To Retaliate For The Saudi-Driven Collapse In Oil
To be sure, the Chairman of the Russian State Duma International Committee Alexei Pushkov promptly rejected all the NYT allegations, writing on his Twitter account:
“There were no negotiations with the Saudis to decrease oil production
in exchange for Moscow’s refusal to support Assad. Hoax.”
Simple and elegant: if the US does everything in its power to deflect attention from the ongoing conflict for the control of Syria by backing a proxy civil war in Ukraine merely meant to keep Moscow off guard, a civil war that Ukraine and the west are now perilously close to losing, Russia will retaliate, but not in Kiev – that’s irrelevant. It will do so where the pain to the west would be greatest: in Saudi Arabia, the place that is the true ground zero of all Russian hurt in the past 6 months, ever since oil started tumbling from $100, and continued following the historic collapse of OPEC on Thanksgiving Day 2014, where Saudi Arabia unilaterally decided to crush the price of oil indefinitely, or until Putin comes crawling, and begging for a Saudi oil supply halt, in exchange for al-Assad’s head on a silver platter.
Well, that may happen… or if the US does arm Ukraine, Russia may just do everything in its power to take the proxy war away from Ukraine, and right into the hornets’ nest of the House of Saud itself.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-10/how-russia-plans-retaliate-saudi-driven-collapse-oil
WEST: NORAD Head Says Russia Increasing Arctic Long Range Air Patrols
This is the US security team ….feel froggy…. we’ll do ya’ punk?
[img[/img]
T4C
The cover of the Economist in January being “Sargent Pepperish” is somewhat a tradition and is thought by some to always hold clues for the coming year. So did you notice the nuke cloud in the upper right hand corner???