RECESSION CONFIRMED

It must have been the cold weather. Maybe those millions of newly employed workers are so busy at work, they don’t have time to spend all that money they are making. The 4th quarter GDP was solely boosted by Obamacare spending and higher utility spending. The 1st Quarter is now at NEGATIVE 0.7%, to be revised lower in the future when no one is paying attention. The Fed’s own model shows 2nd quarter GDP near 0%. Anyone with two brain cells, can see that 99% of the people in this country are experiencing a recession. The expansion is only occurring on Wall Street and K Street. That’s the way they like it and that’s the way it will be reported on CNBC and the rest of the dying legacy media mouthpiece networks. So it goes.

“Welcome To The Contraction”: Q1 GDP Drops By 0.7%, Corporate Profits Crash

Tyler Durden's picture

And you thought the preliminary 0.2% Q1 GDP print from last month was bad. Moments ago, just as we warned, the BEA released its latest, first, revision of Q1 GDP (pre second-seasonal adjustments of course), and we just got confirmation that for the third time in the past four years, the US economy suffered a quarterly contraction, with the Q1 GDP revised drastically from a 0.2% growth to a drop of -0.7%: the worst print since snow struck, so very unexpectedly, last winter.

Incidentally, there has not been a US “expansion” with three negative quarters in it in the past 60 years.

Worse, the breakdown shows that far from being a non-core slowdown, consumption rose just 1.8%, below the 2.0% expected, and contributed just 1.23% of the bottom line GDP number. This was the worst Personal Spending contribution since Q1 of last year, when revised GDP dropped by -2.11%.

What is disturbing is that as noted before, inventories contributed the biggest component of Q1 GDP growth, adding $95 billion in real terms to Growth. Without that contribution, GDP would have been worse than -3%!

And worst of all, was the plunge in corporate profits. According to the report:

Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation adjustment (IVA) and
capital consumption adjustment (CCAdj)) decreased $125.5 billion in the first quarter, compared with a
decrease of $30.4 billion in the fourth.

 

Profits of domestic financial corporations decreased $2.6 billion in the first quarter, compared with a decrease of $12.5 billion in the fourth. Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations decreased $100.4 billion, in contrast to an increase of $18.1 billion. The rest-of-the-world component of profits decreased $22.4 billion, compared with a decrease of $36.1 billion. This measure is calculated as the difference between receipts from the rest of the world and payments to the rest of the world. In the first quarter, receipts decreased $28.9 billion, and payments decreased $6.5 billion

Or visually:

In short: welcome to the recession, which however will soon be double seasonally adjusted into another flourishing, of only stiatistically, “recovery.”

 

23
Leave a Reply

avatar
  Subscribe  
Notify of
BUCKHED
BUCKHED

So does Janet Y pull the trigger and raise interest rates in June…sending everything further down the crapper ?

Stephanie Shepard

The numbers may see a recession but I think everyday Americans see a depression. I wonder how many people are on the verge of being homeless due to expensive rents and inflation. I know of many people only surviving because of multiple generations living in one household. The recent figures for Millennials have gotten more depressing. Apparently, my generation has the lowest birth rates and marriage rates in recorded history. Boomers may get a crappy retirement along with no grandchildren to visit them.

DC Sunsets

Janet will raise rates when you see the 3-month T-bill yield rise….and rise it will.

The Fed is not the market. The market is astronomically larger than the Fed.

When rates begin to rise, this time it won’t be because the economy is recovering. It will be because people begin to worry about getting stiffed, about NOT getting their money back.

We’re not there yet, but when the crisis finally arrives, it may coalesce very, very quickly.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/kaavio.Webhost/charts/big.chart?nosettings=1&symb=3_month&uf=0&type=1&size=2&sid=12576397&style=320&freq=3&entitlementtoken=0c33378313484ba9b46b8e24ded87dd6&time=13&rand=1958503376&compidx=aaaaa%3a0&ma=5&maval=13&lf=4&lf2=32&lf3=256&height=553&width=579&mocktick=1

DC Sunsets

“Boomers may get a crappy retirement along with no grandchildren to visit them.”

There’s a price for misreading the instructions for the game of “LIFE” and indulging in narcissism. Look at how people live today.

Young people don’t attempt to make of themselves persons who another would wish to partner with for the long haul. They stand on a soapbox and demand others take them as they are, because they are somehow already perfect.

People in general seem to think loneliness and depression are GREAT. They appear to invest NOTHING in trying to find a partner with whom to tackle the great adventure that is life.

People (esp. women) seem so self-obsessed that they either eschew the concept of partnership and children or (worse) women have children without a man to help them because they want a baby who will love them unconditionally. Thus is there a generation or two now of dysfunctional kids because they have totally dysfunctional parent (lack of “s” is intentional.)

Men have “game” if they are getting laid, as though somehow shallow, physical intimacy with a succession of forgettable women is “life,” when that is so laughably stupid that words fail in description.

Life: it’s an adventure best faced with a trusted partner. A key component of it is raising children, a sub-adventure all its own. The best chance of succeeding in finding Happiness Path is BEING a trusted partner, and FINDING a trusted partner. The order of that is paramount: you can’t find one until you’re ready to BE one, and engaging in a long series of causal physical encounters AIN’T going to get anyone, man or woman, there.

Our entire society is based on TOXIC LIES, constantly inducing people to do the most utterly self-destructive actions and forever turn away from any path that leads to Happiness. Only those who find a way to tune out all of Pop Culture have any hope of living a happy life.

Stephanie Shepard

dc.sunset- That was quite a tirade and for most of it I don’t disagree. Where I disagree with you is Millennials didn’t come out of a box with those life perceptions. They were taught them.

Bea Lever
Bea Lever

DC- +100

Nice rant/so true.

DC Sunsets

Stephanie, as I see it there are TWO ways to live:
1. Do whatever it is the herd is doing.
2. Figure it out for yourself.

My parents didn’t teach me jack shit. Everything I’ve learned I learned either the Hard Way or I reasoned my way to it. Raising my sons was pure reasoning; my lovely wife and I ignored what everyone else did, took what her parents did that made sense (perhaps 20% of what we did) and made up the rest as we went along.

I have often said that there has never been a more difficult time to pass from adolescence to adulthood. Lots of people I know in their 40’s are still not adults as I define the term. Some of these permanent children are in their 50’s. I feel nothing but pity for them.

The cards are heavily stacked against people today. This makes breaking free of the herd much more difficult. Finding ***quality*** spouses is damn difficult. I can’t *imagine* trying to find someone now, I’m ecstatic that my sons all appear to have found nice young ladies, and I marvel at my own good fortune to find my wife so early…she is one in a billion.

So I sympathize with your viewpoint and empathize with you and your fellow young people. Those of you who figure this all out in time, and are able to surf the coming rogue waves and keep from drowning will discover that the future does belong to those who show up to claim it.

You’re a smart girl. Work the problem and find “the path.” Be the Remnant.

Pick your platitude.

Dutchman
Dutchman

Millennials seem to have the money for iCrap / Bars / Restaurants / Concerts.

Dutchman
Dutchman

As I’ve said before, if you correlate these numbers to sun spot activity, the Economy is doing quite well, and has actually grown 10%. Yes, it’s hard to believe, but VP Biden told me so, in an email from his private server.

Billy
Billy

Good rant, dc… +1

Life: it’s an adventure best faced with a trusted partner. A key component of it is raising children, a sub-adventure all its own. The best chance of succeeding in finding Happiness Path is BEING a trusted partner, and FINDING a trusted partner.

This.

I was in a conversation with someone last week at a grocery store, and the topic was marriage. She wanted to know why I would drive 30+ miles just to obtain a certain type of rice pudding for my wife.

My answer was that she liked it and that particular store was the only one that carried it. That answer didn’t satisfy her. I told her that the most important thing in a marriage isn’t romance or anything squishy like that. It’s loyalty. My wife has stood by me during the darkest, most trying times. And she did so without question, hesitation or complaint. A lesser woman would have left long ago.

And that counts. It counts so much to me that I have no problems whatsoever making an hour-long round trip just to obtain a certain kind of rice pudding that she likes.

You give your solemn word to someone – in front of God Himself – and pledge your loyalty and fealty, then you stand by that promise – no questions, no hesitation, no complaints. When things are their darkest, you can take strength from your partner, and vice versa.

Stephanie Shepard

“Millennials seem to have the money for iCrap / Bars / Restaurants / Concerts.”

Eh, I disagree. Most millennials are going about their day the same way the Baby Boomers did. They see life through rose colored glass because all they know of their fellow cohorts are what they post on facebook or tweet. So it appears everybody is happier than they really are. To compound this my generation is suppose to be conformists. If they think everybody is happy they’re going to fake it until they make it. Total nonsense.

As for “icrap” can we stop pretending in today’s world you don’t have to have a phone and an internet connection to either get a job or to work? All applications and job hunting are done online. There is no way to get employed without both a phone or internet.

Dutchman
Dutchman

@Steph: “As for “icrap” can we stop pretending in today’s world you don’t have to have a phone and an internet connection to either get a job or to work? All applications and job hunting are done online. There is no way to get employed without both a phone or internet.”

I agree one needs internet connectivity. The iGadget world where one continually sends are receives useless messages is what I’m referring to.

To the many times I see Millennials on an iPhone, I can’t image they’re looking for a job.

Mark
Mark

Wisdom is teaching me that our circumstances are secondary and how we interpret them is paramount.

The question are we better off knowing the truth about things or not? IM comming to the conclusion that we are. And that’s going to take into account understanding natural selection and brain science.

Like it or not your brain is a mechanical device all be it with feral neurons as opposed to computer chips. I’ve reconned much as laughter evolved to kick us out of recursive loops so does our overall brain try to escape hurts and rough times. We are all a little obsessive compulsive wether like it or not. And or brains will automatically try to work those things out wether we want them to or not.

Karma seems to be a law of the universe and helps. And interpet even bad things as good. And be grateful for the smallest of things. Such as a stranger taking the time and courtesy of calling you back and telling you there is nothing their for you. And you do likewise. You’ll feel better I promise.

AnarchoPagan
AnarchoPagan

Some of us, like TE and myself, find ourselves in marriages and then learn our partners aren’t trustworthy. You can say it’s our fault, whatever. I say, be grateful for your good fortune, your choices are half chance.

DC Sunsets

I was fortunate; my wife and I found each other when she was 15, I was 16. Trials and tribulations through college (mostly my fault for trying to fit in, when all evidence said don’t bother), married at 21/22, kids at 24, 27 and 30. I hit my stride when my first kid was born; my purpose in life came into instant focus.

Was I lucky? You bet.

I can’t speak to anything but this: The men I know who are divorced were volitionally blind to what was obvious to anyone else that their intended was bat-guano crazy in all but one case (she hid it really well.)

Finding someone is difficult; once they’re found, you still have to learn a whole lot to stay on “The Path.” This life is now full of vices into which any of us can trip. I’m still learning what it requires to avoid such traps, so I don’t claim omniscience. I am getting better at avoiding the ditch, however.

Hans Hermann Hoppe showed me that “democracy” infantilizes people. I believe it. People today are obsessed with This Moment. From obtaining the latest fad gadget to donning the latest fad tattoo, they give NO thought to the future.

Fighting the influence on ourselves of this toxic culture is a full time occupation.

DC Sunsets

@AnarchoPagan,

My guess is that fewer than 1 in 500 people is a keeper now. It’s so bad that when my wife had a 4th grade girl who was the trifecta (sweet, smart and cute) we actually discussed how to keep track of her as she worked her way toward 18 in case our (at that time, 20 year old) son had not found a non-toxic girl.

Would I have PAID that girl (college tuition, clothing, whatever) to become Miss Right for my son? In a New York Minute. (By the way, now 7 years later, she is reportedly just as sweet, smart and cute just in a 17 year old body. With a little luck she’ll make some decent young man a wonderful wife, if she values herself properly and is exceptionally choosy.)

Two of my sons resorted to eHarmony to find their girls. By all appearances they found their needle-in-haystack ladies, but we’ll know better in 20 or 30 years.

I have a traditional view of kids & family. I want my family to grow in each generation. The future belongs to those who show up to claim it. As an aside, I told all my sons to be damn careful with whom they shared intimacy, that I’d go to great lengths to avoid a grandchild being aborted and it would not please me if they produced one with some batshit crazy cant.

DC Sunsets

It isn’t only Millennials sitting in a restaurant where wife, husband and all the kids are hammering their phone keypad throughout the meal.

Vices. We’re awash in them.

Overthecliff
Overthecliff

DC on a roll lately.if I weren’t so happy to see my comment in print,I could just give him ++++++++.

DC Sunsets

Nervous energy. It turns out my best friend died last weekend. When you are the quintessential square peg, losing a friend is like a bicycle losing a wheel.

DC Sunsets

Correction: best friend outside of wife and sons.

Discover more from The Burning Platform

Subscribe now to keep reading and get access to the full archive.

Continue reading