It seems the mainstream media is giddy with excitement over the 280,000 jobs supposedly created in May. The markets aren’t so happy, as good news is actually bad news. What excuse will Yellen and her fellow Wall Street puppets at the Federal Reserve use to not increase interest rates from emergency levels of 0.25%? The ten year Treasury rate immediately skyrocketed to 2.43% in seconds. It was at 1.64% in February. That’s a 46% decline in price in four months. Do you still think bonds are a safe investment? Guess what is tied to the 10 Year Treasury rate? Mortgage rates. There goes the fake housing recovery. Artificially high prices, higher mortgage rates, and young people unable to buy sounds like a perfect recipe for collapse.
The MSM is cackling about the 280,000 new jobs, but you won’t hear them mentioning that the number of unemployed people went up by 125,000 as 208,000 people the BLS classified as not in the labor force last month decided they were in the labor force this month. What a crock. At least 20 million of the 93 million classified as not in the labor force can or will work, therefore they are unemployed.
One month does not make a recovery. Let’s see what the YTD numbers show:
- Since January, 594,000 more Americans are employed, an average of 149k per month. Considering the working age population has gone up by 732,000 since January, why is anyone crowing?
- The BLS drones actually expect you to believe the unemployment rate has fallen from 5.7% in January to 5.5% today, because 442,000 Americans decided to voluntarily exit the labor force. That’s a hoot.
The really good stuff is buried in Table A-9 of the BLS data dump. See for yourself:
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t09.htm
As the MSM hacks and government apparatchiks try to convince you the jobs market is booming, Table A-9 tells a different story. Here is what is revealed:
- The number of working age Americans went up by 2.8 million in the last year, or 236k per month. The number of new jobs must average 236k per month just to stay even. In the last year the economy added 2.9 million jobs, slightly above the workforce growth, but the BLS expects you to believe the unemployment rate plunged from 6.3% to 5.5%. Hilarious!!!
- It’s the breakdown of jobs by age that really screams out. It is a known fact that people in the 45 to 54 age bracket are in their prime earning and spending years. In the last year the number of employed 45 to 54 year olds has DECLINED by 67,000. It DECLINED in May by 51,000. It has DECLINED by 187,000 since February.
- It is a known fact that people over 55 dramatically reduce their spending as they approach and enter their retirement years. The Boomers have added 824,000 jobs in the last year, or 28% of all the new jobs added.
- Only 117,000 jobs were added in the 35 to 44 year old bracket in the last year. So the age brackets that do the most spending in the country (35 to 54) have a net increase of 50k jobs in the last year. That is 1.7% of the total jobs added.
- The remainder of the new low paying jobs are going to young people who are in debt up to their eyeballs. Now you should understand why there is no real recovery. The people who normally spend the most aren’t getting jobs. The people who don’t spend or can’t spend are getting the bulk of the low paying service jobs.
- Of the 2.9 new jobs created in the last year, guess how many are classified as self-employment jobs? How about 935,000. That’s right. Your new job selling shit on Ebay or cutting three lawns per week is counted as a new job by the BLS drones. What a load of bull.
- There are also 7 million people who hold multiple jobs. That is a sure sign of economic progress.
- Almost 300k of the new jobs added in the last year were part-time shit jobs. 205k of the 464k jobs added since March are part-time jobs.
Sorry to be a buzzkill, but today’s jobs numbers are not great. The job market sucks. Wages suck. The BLS will lie and obfuscate until morale improves. The MSM will regurgitate the lies. So it goes.
Thanks to Seasonal Adjustments and especially the ‘guess’ at Birth/Death ratio of new businesses (that guess at the # of people hired), the numbers provided are fantasy.
In April 2014, of 284,000 new jobs, 234,000 were calculated from the algo in the Astrological Birth/Death ratio of new businesses. Either the IPCC copied the BLS Models or vice-versa.
The Fed has to raise rates a little bit someday just to avoid being a laughingstock. They won’t do a series of increases as was done by Greenspan in ’92, though. A max increase in the Fed Funds Rate of 3/4% and probably less. The effect of the economy in a presidential election year is set by where public sentiment is in June of that year. Their aim will be to make everything as rosey-appearing as possible by next June to help Clinton. That probably means two 25 bp increases this year and then done. The jobs reports – complete artifice – are crafted as mere support for the preordained policy decisions.
Greetings,
If anyone bothered to pay attention, this makes for great anti-establishment propaganda. After all, it is one thing to lie about the affair you are having but another to try to lie while caught in the act. That the BLS can go month after month with its pants around its ankles while spewing this kind of crap amazes me.
Between stuff like this and, say, mailing anthrax to itself, the government bleeds away its credibility.
Where The May Jobs Were: Teachers, Waiters, Retail, And Temp Help
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/05/2015 10:27 -0400
One of the defining features of jobs “recovery” and the main reason why wage growth has been so far below the Fed’s expectations for years it has prevented wage inflation from appearing despite years of QE, is that the quality of jobs added month after month has disappointing. May was no difference.
Yes, the headline print of 280K job additions was great, but a quick look at how the BLS got there shows that nothing has changed because four of the five main job additions were, as usual for the lowest paid jobs.
Here is the breakdown:
Education and Health (i.e., teachers): +74,000
Leisure and Hospitality (i.e., waiters): +57,000
Retail Trade (i.e., minimum wage store clerks): +31,400
Temp Help: +20,100
In fact, these lowest quality jobs accounted for two-thirds of all jobs gains in May.
As for the well paid jobs: Mining and logging (energy workers): down 18,000, Information: down: 3,000, Financial services: up 13,000, and Construction workers: up 17,000 which is not bad, however it is down more than half from April’s +35,000.
Incidentally, by consistently adding the lowest quality jobs, not only is the conundrum of America’s missing wage growth resolved, but so is the quandary of why US labor productivity has gone nowhere in the past 5 years.
with its pants around its ankles while spewing this kind of crap amazes me -.NR
Brain bleach table 10 stat!!!
Kokoda: “In April 2014, of 284,000 new jobs, 234,000 were calculated from the algo in the Astrological Birth/Death ratio of new businesses”. That birth/death ratio formula is not “astrological”; it was calculated using data during the boom days around 2007 and BLS is still using that formula after the crash of about 2009. In your Apr2014 data, 82% of the jobs BLS claimed were created in Apr14 did not come from Survey Data but from a very invalid birth/death formula…82% pure government imaginary astrological bologna jobs.
The birth/death bullshit adjustment added 213,000 jobs to the calculation for phantom jobs supposedly created by new small businesses. That’s a real hoot, as more small businesses are closing than opening.
The Bureau of Lies and Shams doing their duty for the oligarchs.
@Administrator
How is it possible that so many teachers were added in May? What need is there for so many new teachers during the summer?
Must be a lot of dumbasses going to summer school.
The point is, when the interest rate on the 10_year rises, the VALUE of the underlying bonds CRATERS.
I don’t know how much money this represents, but I’ll bet it is in the tens, and possibly hundreds of billions of dollars.
Someone is taking it in the backside with a chainsaw.
THIS is what I’ve screamed from the mountaintop for years; once an ocean of IOU’s exists, all roads lead to evaporation of that “water” (the wealth all those IOU’s represent.)
People today FEEL wealthy. They hold title (in their minds) to the PROMISES of future dollars, not actual productive wealth itself. When interest rates rise (and they can’t do much else, given how close to zero they are), the wealth evaporates. It doesn’t go into stocks, or land, or beanie babies, it simply disappears.
We had our inflation….40 years of it. Now we’ll have our DEflation, probably more like 5-10 years of it. It hasn’t begun in earnest yet, but we’ll know it when stocks begin to fall HARD. Then it won’t matter what the Clowns at the Fed do, all roads will lead to wealth destruction and nominal price collapse.
The 10 year yield bottomed a long time ago. Bonds will eventually become the graveyard of capital.
[img]http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/kaavio.Webhost/charts/big.chart?nosettings=1&symb=10_year&uf=0&type=2&size=2&sid=12576401&style=320&freq=3&entitlementtoken=0c33378313484ba9b46b8e24ded87dd6&time=10&rand=1262312599&compidx=aaaaa%3a0&ma=5&maval=13&lf=4&lf2=32&lf3=0&height=444&width=579&mocktick=1[/img]
In these reports I never see the transportation industry represented.If you want a decent Job with good benefits then look to FedEx, UPS ,Conway . These are just some of trucking companies that are hiring in all areas of the trucking industry. These companies are hiring for all positions not just driving.Most of these jobs start out at about 50,000 a year.Management pays in high 80,000 .These are good jobs for people who will work but Inever see them in advertisements.
Go to their web sites.
Just goes to show you can’t believe any government figures, especially if there’s even a hint of an “estimate”. Perhaps we should run the numbers w/o the birth/death estimate. Dramatically different result, eh?
They want slaves and robots for the trucking jobs mentioned. The trucking Industry is a giant meat grinder.. There is always a demand since people figure out how much the job sucks. Huge turnover rate, (for years) instead of fixing the problems the industry keeps trying to bring in cheap labor from Mexico.
OTR trucking is notoriously hard on people’s health.
Bladder problems, obesity and all the downside risks that come with it are the cost of a “decent” income.
Increasingly there are two kinds of jobs in the USA: minimum wage jobs and the dwindling number of decent ones.
“OTR trucking is notoriously hard on people’s health.” ——— dc.sunsets
It also turns you into a dumbfuk raving lunatic retard with no redeeming social values and a brain that turns into swiss cheese ……….. if bb is an accurate representative of the profession.
Well I finally got my first REAL job since 2009. And found out my guy’s IT job is in jeopardy, a Hispanic woman got the contract with all the extra points for being not white or male. Now he’s going to have to interview twice to keep his job. Someone explain that ‘white privilege’ thing to me again.
Stucky….you are brutal with bb.
Bad health for truck drivers is their own fault. Many of these guys sit and eat at the buffets then go bad to truck to sleep. Do that over and over you end with health issues.
High turn over rate on the trucking side because most men can’t handle being away from home as much as it takes.I tell them to get a pet.Dog or cat.
Management jobs are usually stay home jobs.
I like it .Get to see first hand what’s being done especially to the country.
Stucky , I’m waiting. You still haven’t told me to fuck off and die.You’re not dead to me .I’m going stay on your ass FOREVER. You still need to apologize to little bb.
Let’s not forget that the BLS honchos also count even one hour worked as a “job.” This is probably the worst part of their falsified statistics, after the imaginary jobs estimated into existence via the birth/death model. I expect this to only get worse as the election season marches on to its fateful end.
The polls are not looking great for Hillary, even against Rand Paul, surprisingly. That, plus Obama’s “legacy,” will surely push the fabrication machine at BLS into high drive.
KaD, at least they’re letting your guy interview to keep his job. Last time I got laid off they didn’t give me that privilege – the jobs were going to India no matter what – but they did let us stay on a while to train our replacements. My current job they keep harping about diversity – as if the fact that half or more of the people in the local office speak English as a second language is a good thing. Add to that that over half the total jobs are in the company offices in China, India, Russia, etc. Now ask me if half the people in the offices in other countries are naturalized citizens or their equivalent of H1B. So “diversity” basically means that those with ‘white privilege’ get screwed twice.
The ZIRP-strap must be employed until morale improves.
280,000 jobs created, yes.
The problem is that 279,000 of ’em involve asking customers if they’d “like a large order of fries with that?”
Let’s see what the revisions are next month.
How many truckers will be needed when the trucks are self-driving?
Bureau of Labor and Statics would more appropriately be called The Ministry of Plenty.
“But actually, he thought as he readjusted the Ministry of Plenty’s figures, it was not even forgery. It was merely the substitution of one piece of nonsense for another. Most of the material that you were dealing with had no connection with anything in the real world, not even the kind of connection that is contained in a direct lie. Statistics were just as much a fantasy in their original version as in their rectified version. A great deal of time you were expected to make them up out of your head. ”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ministry_of_Plenty
It saddens me that I am not even slightly surprised by the research.The revision shell game has persisted for so long now my eyes are glazed. Its clearly the new normal. I am not sure how the United States of America can reconcile trust(even a modicum) with standardized pervasive lies.