In Part 1 of this article I discussed the catalyst spark which ignited this Fourth Turning and the seemingly delayed regeneracy. In Part 2 I will ponder possible Grey Champion prophet generation leaders who could arise during the regeneracy.

The nearly seven year reign of Barack Obama has resulted in furthering wealth inequality, in spite of his socialistic rhetoric. Notwithstanding his Nobel Peace Prize, military spending is at all-time highs and we are engaged in actual and proxy wars across the Middle East and in the Ukraine. Race relations have never been worse. Poverty levels have never been worse. Real median household income is lower than it was in 1989. Real hourly wages are at 50 year lows. Home ownership has plunged to 50 year lows, as middle class workers have been kicked out of their homes and young people are saddled with so much student loan debt and bleak job opportunities they will never have an opportunity to own. The ownership society pushed by Clinton and Bush, with the proliferation of Wall Street created “exotic” subprime mortgages, peddled to people incapable of paying their mortgages, blew up the world in 2008, and the fall out will last for decades.

Meanwhile, Wall Street banks have reaped $700 billion of ill-gotten profits since 2010 as the Federal Reserve has handed them trillions of interest free funds to gamble with, while rigging the financial markets, and paying their executives obscene bonuses. The hubris and arrogance of the Wall Street titans is appalling, as they buy politicians, write toothless financial regulations (Dodd Frank) for their bought off politicians to pass, report fraudulent financial results with the stamp of approval from the FASB, blatantly rig interest rate, currency, stock and commodities markets, and use deception and propaganda to distract and mislead the public through their corporate media mouthpieces – dependent upon Wall Street advertising revenue to thrive.

And still, Obama has not prosecuted one banker for the largest control fraud in world history, as he assumed the role of useful puppet to the vested financial interests. I’m sure he will be paid handsomely after he leaves office in 2017, just as Bill Clinton, Alan Greenspan, and Ben Bernanke have been richly rewarded by their Deep State benefactors for a job well done.

Illegal immigrants are pouring over our borders with encouragement from the Obama administration. Obamacare has proven to be a giveaway to health insurance conglomerates, hospital corporations, and drug companies, as insurance costs are driven higher, care deteriorates, and deficits soar ever higher. The welfare state has grown to immense proportions, with 46 million Americans remaining on food stamps, proving the reported unemployment rate of 5.1% to be a fraud. The labor participation rate of 62.6% is at levels last seen in 1977 and far below the 67.1% rate achieved from 1997 through 2000. The politicians and corporate media applaud $600 billion deficits as an achievement, while 10,000 Boomers turning 65 per day is guaranteed to drive future deficits back over $1 trillion per year.

Laurence Kotlikoff, economics professor at Boston University, reveals the truth about our true fiscal mess. Our unfunded liabilities are too damn big and our current deficits are a lie:

“I told them the real (2014) deficit was $5 trillion, not the $500 billion or $300 billion or whatever it was announced to be this year. Almost all the liabilities of the government are being kept off the books by bogus accounting. The government is 58% underfinanced. Social Security is 33% underfinanced. So, the entire government enterprise is in worse fiscal shape than Social Security is, but they are both in terrible shape. So, how much is America on the hook for in the future?  If you take all the expenditures that the government is expected to make, as projected by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), all the spending on defense, repairing the roads, paying for the Supreme Court Justices’ salaries, Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, welfare, everything and take all those expenditures into the future and compare that to all the taxes that are projected to come in, and the difference is $210 trillion.  That’s the fiscal gap.  That’s our true debt.

We now know for sure Barack Obama is not the Grey Champion of this Fourth Turning. He has only worsened the three core elements of this Crisis – debt, civic decay, and global disorder. Since his ascension to power, U.S. and global debt has expanded at an astounding rate never seen in world history. Class, race, political and cultural divides have grown to vast proportions. The world is exploding in violence, refugees flooding over borders, civil wars, proxy wars, riots, currency wars and economic depressions caused by U.S. military interventions and monetary policies.

The world is becoming increasingly chaotic and the American people are seeking a leader who can bring order, make tough decisions, and capture the zeitgeist of this moment in history. They are in search of a prophet generation (Boomer) Grey Champion, whose arrival marks the moment of darkness, adversity and peril as the Fourth Turning careens towards its climax. The Grey Champion doesn’t necessarily have to be a good person, but they must lead and display tremendous confidence in their cause and path. Franklin, Lincoln, and FDR have many detractors, but during their Fourth Turnings, they most certainly led, casting aside obstacles (sometimes illegally) and enduring dark days and bleak prospects for success. Is there someone of that stature ready to lead the American people now?

Gray Champion?

“Americans have always been blind to the next turning until after it fully arrives.

Most of today’s adult Americans grew up in a society whose citizens dreamed of perpetually improving outcomes: better jobs, fatter wallets, stronger government, finer culture, nicer families, smarter kids, all the usual fruits of progress. Today, deep into the Third Turning, these goals feel like they are slipping away. Many of us wish we could rewind time, but we know we can’t – and we fear for our children and grandchildren.

Many Americans wish that, somehow, they could bring back a saecular spring now. But seasons don’t work that way. As in nature, a saecular autumn can be warm or cool, long or short, but the leaves will surely fall. The saecular winter can hurry or wait, but history warns that it will surely be upon us.

We may not wish the Grey Champion to come again – but come he must, and come he will.” The Fourth Turning – Strauss & Howe – 1997

When Strauss and Howe wrote these words eighteen years ago, halfway through the Unraveling, the American Dream was already turning into a nightmare. Perpetually improving outcomes have turned into a perpetually declining standard of living for most Americans. Fear for the futures of our children and grandchildren were warranted. Millennials have been lured into and enslaved by $1.3 trillion of student loan debt, left with limited job opportunities and low pay, priced out of the housing market, and handed a $200 trillion bill by their elders. Despite factual data showing that default rates on for-profit student loans were even three times as high as subprime mortgages in the early 2000s, the government took over the student loan market in 2009 and proceeded to dole out $500 billion (taxpayer money) in new debt over the next six years to anyone that could fog a mirror and scribble an X on a loan document.

The criminal enterprises known as for profit colleges such as: University of Phoenix, Corinthian, ITT Tech, Strayer, and Devry, have absconded with the money, provided dreadful education, graduated about 20% of enrollees, and left millions of suckers with billions of debt. With default rates now exceeding 50%, students are angry, demanding relief from their own stupidity. Hard working taxpayers who have struggled to put themselves and their kids through college are angry they will foot the bill for defaults that anyone with a high school diploma could see would happen. Trust in the government’s decision making process and motives have been rightfully shattered.

It is clear the Obama administration purposely enslaved young people in debt to artificially lower the unemployment rate for political purposes. The issuance of colossal amounts of subprime auto loan debt (begun by Ally Financial when it was owned by the Federal government) has also been politically motivated to artificially increase GDP figures and pump up the financial results of the US automakers (GM, Chrysler) saved with taxpayer funds in 2009. There are no free markets left. Everything is manipulated for a political reason or to benefit a particular constituent. The average American pays the price, while the connected .1% are further enriched.

When young people protested against the true enemies of the people on Wall Street in 2011, they were maced, beaten, tear gassed, trampled by horses and imprisoned by the enforcers of the surveillance police state. The working middle class has seen their real wages stagnate for the last 50 years, as the dollar was unpegged from gold, politicians were free to run up the national debt with no short term consequences, and citizens were turned into consumers through media propaganda, the peddling of debt by Wall Street, and the complete and utter failure of our educational system.

While working class Americans have seen no advancement in their real wages in almost a half century, the cost of their food, energy, education, healthcare, housing, and taxes have risen astronomically. It is no coincidence the Wall Street bankers stepped in to offer prodigious levels of consumer debt in the form of credit card, mortgage and auto loans to allow Americans to pretend their standard of living hasn’t fallen. Excessive levels of debt leads to excessive profits for the moneyed interests. The last 35 years have been a grand national delusion.

Trust in the economic system, financial markets, political parties, mainstream media, and generational social contract has been destroyed. Rampant irresponsible fraud, abuse, deception, and deceit by the moneyed interests, lackey politicians, their government apparatchiks, media mouthpieces, and legal system have shattered the illusion the establishment is looking out for your best interests. The revelations by Edward Snowden of illegal mass surveillance, militarization of local police forces, military exercises in US cities, attempts to roll back the 2nd Amendment, and trying to control the internet has revealed the true nature of the corporate fascist state. The disintegration of trust began slowly after 9/11 but accelerated rapidly over the last three years. Our leaders have done the exact opposite of what needed to be done after 2008. Everything they have implemented has failed. The average American is worse off than they were in 2009 at the depths of the recession.

The highly educated, white collar, sociopath masters of the universe have captured the levers of power in this country. The world is enthralled and mesmerized by a gray haired academic troll-like figure who will ascend her monetary throne and pronounce whether her and her fellow central bank lackeys will raise an obscure inconsequential interest rate from 0% to .25%. This is nothing but a meaningless diversion as her owners (Wall Street banks), their corporate brethren, captured politicians, pliable judiciary, and media mouthpieces rig the financial markets to enrich themselves while impoverishing the masses and drowning current and future generations in un-payable debt. Harry Markopolos, who uncovered Bernie Madoff’s Ponzi scheme, while the SEC and criminal co-conspirator Wall Street bankers willfully ignored the blatant easily identifiable fraud, captures the essence of why trust in our economic, financial, regulatory, political, judicial and journalistic systems has collapsed:

“Government has coddled, accepted, and ignored white collar crime for too long. It is time the nation woke up and realized that it’s not the armed robbers or drug dealers who cause the most economic harm, it’s the white collar criminals living in the most expensive homes who have the most impressive resumes who harm us the most. They steal our pensions, bankrupt our companies, and destroy thousands of jobs, ruining countless lives.” – Harry Markopolos, Congressional Testimony

The men who retain the levers of power are the same men who were in command when the Crisis struck in 2008. They are even more powerful and rich today than prior to the financial collapse provoked by their unbridled greed and avarice. They believed they could engineer a recovery by promoting confidence in the Wall Street banks through the issuance of prodigious amounts of debt to solve a crisis caused by too much debt. Total debt outstanding in the U.S. rose from $52 trillion in 2009 to $59 trillion today, at the behest of the government and their Federal Reserve cohorts.

While rational thinking Americans have continued to pay down their mortgage debt and reduce credit card usage, the Federal government through their insolvent (if using mark to market accounting) entities Fannie and Freddie, along with their monopoly on student loan issuance, and their massive deficit spending, have accounted for more than 100% of the $7 trillion increase. Total global debt approaches $230 trillion, up approximately $70 trillion since the crisis began.

The mood change in the country is palpable as economic misery besets the middle class; race wars break out in urban ghettos across the land; push back against the police state intensifies; distrust of a rigged financial system keeps people out of the market; young people are priced out of the housing market by Wall Street price manipulation; productive good paying jobs dwindle; government bureaucrats prove themselves inept at everything they attempt; illegal immigrants pour over the southern border overwhelming the social safety net when it is already stretched thin; and faith in both political parties is close to zero. The regeneracy has been delayed, but this has allowed the anger, bitterness, and dismay with the government to grow to staggering proportions. The country is growing desperate for someone to lead. Ignoring the debt, civic decay and global disorder is no longer acceptable. It’s time for someone to step forward and tell the people the truth.

“Soon after the catalyst, a national election will produce a sweeping political realignment, as one faction or coalition capitalizes on a new public demand for decisive action. Republicans, Democrats, or perhaps a new party will decisively win the long partisan tug of war. This new regime will enthrone itself for the duration of the Crisis. Regardless of its ideology, that new leadership will assert public authority and demand private sacrifice. Where leaders had once been inclined to alleviate societal pressures, they will now aggravate them to command the nation’s attention. The regeneracy will be solidly under way.” – The Fourth Turning – Strauss & Howe – 1997

The Grey Champion is likely to be elevated through an election, but it isn’t a requirement. Ben Franklin and Samuel Adams were the intellectual and firebrand Grey Champions of the American Revolution. They inspired the revolutionaries through writings and oratory. Lincoln and FDR were elected Grey Champions, but Lincoln only won 40% of the popular vote in a four way race, while FDR won in a landslide with 57% of the vote over Hoover. It was clear Lincoln didn’t have a mandate, as Southern states began seceding after his election. No one can argue Franklin, Adams, Lincoln or FDR united everyone in a common cause. They actually aggravated the societal pressures that had been ignored or deferred by their predecessors. Compromise was not an option for these men. They were going to lead based upon their own criteria. You were either with them or against them. And many were against them.

It is widely believed only 20% of colonial Americans were strong supporters of the American Revolution, with 20% Loyalists, and the rest sitting on the fence. Franklin’s own son remained a Loyalist throughout the fight. Half the country departed the Union upon Lincoln’s election and his support in the North was lukewarm at best. Lincoln captured 55% of the vote in the 1864 election, with only northern states voting. Even though FDR won landslide popular vote victories in 1932 and 1936, his detractors and enemies were many. FDR’s confiscation of gold and antagonism toward big business convinced a number of wealthy businessmen to approach General Smedley Butler to lead a coup against FDR and install a fascist regime to run the country. So, it is clear Grey Champions are not universally loved or supported. They have the ability to ignore the complexity of life and focus on one simple imperative: society must prevail.

Until three months ago the 2016 presidential election was in control of the establishment. The Party was putting forth their chosen crony capitalist figureheads – Jeb Bush and Hillary Clinton. They are hand-picked known controllable entities who will not upset the existing corrupt system. They are equally acceptable to Goldman Sachs, the Federal Reserve, the military industrial complex, the sickcare industry, mega-corporate America, the moneyed interests, and the never changing government apparatchiks. The one party system is designed to give the appearance of choice, while in reality there is no difference between the policies of the two heads of one party and their candidate products. But now Donald Trump has stormed onto the scene from the reality TV world to tell the establishment – You’re Fired!!!

As Hillary’s crimes and lies catch up to her and Jeb Bush drowns in a sea of irrelevance, low energy, and passionless rhetoric, Trump and Bernie Sanders have surged ahead in the polls. The country is tired of the Clinton and Bush dynasties. They are tired of the existing ruling authority. My initial reaction to Trump’s entering the presidential race was scorn. He’s a bloviating, egocentric, self-promoting, reality TV parody of himself. After seeing him in action for the last three months it has become apparent the country deserves a president like Trump.

He represents everything we’ve become as a nation. Sound bites, no substance, self-involved, boastful, and in constant attack mode are the qualities necessary to lead America today. Facebook twitter nation merits a president like Trump. Bill Clinton playing sax on Arsenio and Obama’s weekly guest appearances on the Daily Show or Jimmy Fallon Show has already tainted and made a mockery of the office of the president.

Trump was born in 1946 putting him in the Boomer Prophet generation, so he fits the mold of Grey Champion from a generational perspective. Hillary and Jeb are also Boomers, with Sanders from the Silent generation. Trump has struck a nerve with a wide swath of middle class America with his anti-illegal immigration rhetoric, disdain for the elitist mainstream media, unflinching assessment of his second string GOP opponents, and exuberant confidence in his own abilities.

Building a wall on our southern border, going after billionaire hedge fund managers, cutting government spending, and negotiating trade deals that don’t ship American jobs overseas, are resonating with fed up households across America. Some polls show Trump with significant support among blacks and Hispanics. The linear thinking supporters of the status quo are flabbergasted and outraged by Trump’s popularity. The ruling classes never anticipate the mood shift of the peasants as they look down on the masses from their gated estates and penthouse suites. The country is looking for someone who can tear down the entire fetid, corrupt, rotting structure.

The moneyed interests are still betting on Hillary or Jeb, but they are getting nervous. There is still time for them to pull the old Ross Perot play by threatening Trump or his family with harm or making him an offer he can’t refuse in financial terms. But, with the Middle East awash in blood, refugees flooding into Europe, China experiencing an epic meltdown, oil producing countries suffering depressions, emerging market economic systems collapsing under the weight of unpayable promises, the Federal Reserve panicked as recession approaches with interest rates at zero bound, and stock, bond and real estate bubbles approaching the inescapable pin, the stars are aligning for a 2nd crisis more perilous and catastrophic than the 2008 catalyst event. The onset of phase two of this Crisis in 2016 will produce a populace more desperate, less trusting of the establishment and likely to turn towards someone like Trump, in despair.

No matter who is elected in November 2016, there is no turning back. Winter is here and Spring is many years away. Grim times will befall the world. The potential for tragic consequences is growing by the day. The storm clouds are gathering on the horizon. There will certainly be famine, chaos, death, destruction, and war. Let’s pray our Grey Champion can lead us through the valley of death to a new High.

“The risk of catastrophe will be very high. The nation could erupt into insurrection or civil violence, crack up geographically, or succumb to authoritarian rule. If there is a war, it is likely to be one of maximum risk and effort – in other words, a total war. Every Fourth Turning has registered an upward ratchet in the technology of destruction, and in mankind’s willingness to use it.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

In Part 3 I will try to assess which channels of distress are likely to burst forth with the molten ingredients of this Fourth Turning, and lastly make some educated guesses about potential climaxes.


  1. This morning the weather turned and it became an inescapable fact that Autumn was here. There will be a larg faction of people who will lament the passing of Summer, those who relocate to the south for the duration, and the ones who stay behind thinking about and dreaming of another Summer ahead.

    Very few people are prepared for reality, hardly anyone ever deals with what is rather than what they wish it would be and it is that division between us- the ants vs the grasshoppers- that sets the stage for a successful future or a failed one.

    I have given up trying to explain any of this to people.

    You remind me of the guy filling sandbags against the flood- admirable, courageous, hopeless all at the same time. Great writing, really fluid and well designed, like blueprints in their simplicity and precision.

  2. Perfect assessment. Absolutely perfect.

    “He represents everything we’ve become as a nation. Sound bites, no substance, self-involved, boastful, and in constant attack mode are the qualities necessary to lead America today. Facebook twitter nation merits a president like Trump. Bill Clinton playing sax on Arsenio and Obama’s weekly guest appearances on the Daily Show or Jimmy Fallon Show has already tainted and made a mockery of the office of the president.”

    In response to incremental and apparently unceasing threats to their pride, their position in life, their status or inability to either attain it or maintain it, or just their fundamental dignity, American culture has devolved into simmering rage. And rage leads to impulsive action – anger unleashed. Trump, and to lesser extent Sanders, are simply manifestations of this, symbols personified.

    When people react impulsively, particularly in large groups, they can affect change, but history has shown time and again why the old adage, “Be careful what you wish for, you may just get it.” is so true. People often imply their willingness to sacrifice for change – but let’s be realistic: for the vast majority who claim this, it’s true.just so long as their own lives aren’t actually impacted.

  3. Wow Mr. Quinn, you missed your true calling. Nancy Pelosi said that O’care (and SNAP) would make it so artists could follow their passion, too bad you are both eloquent, and a God loving family man that still believes that taking care of the family today, and in the future, has to come before artistic dreams. I so respect and admire your take on our Turning.

    You state that, “..They believed they could engineer a recovery…” and it is the only thing I don’t agree with. I firmly believe that our Overlords are firm believers in the Agenda 21 type world. In that world we, the American and European middle class, MUST be eliminated to eliminate the opposition to their plans. This financial disaster is no more accidental, nor in spite of, their financial (and other) wranglings. They NEED this to happen, they WANT the little (comparative) wealth the small business middle class has. One or two trade deals, bailouts, H1-B visa deals, or changing of statistical data points and I’d agree that they were actually trying to “fix” our country. As the evidence mounts of disastrous financial fallouts, coupled with ever more Federal and State mandates and regulations, and fewer jobs, and it starts to look like this is totally on freaking purpose. If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, well damn, it just might be a duck.

    As I know you do your own edits, in the final Stauss & Howe excerpt/quote, there is one sentence repeated, “Regardless of its ideology, that new leadership will assert public authority and demand private sacrifice…” is there twice.

    Thanks again Jim, you rock.

  4. HSF: ” Great writing, really fluid and well designed, like blueprints in their simplicity and precision.” Thank you! You’ve stated my take on this piece perfectly.

    I moved south for the duration, but I’m entering the winter of my own life and have never been enamored of my generation’s “prophets”. Politically, I share Pat Buchanan’s views for the most part, culturally as well, making me something of a throwback to the “silents”, although Bernie is very much a sixties throwback in spite of his age. If there is to be a “gray champion”, I suspect he (yes, that’s right, “he”) will be someone who is still beneath the radar, whose rise to prominence will occur if and when there is a serious collapse, a likely but not foreordained event. If it does, I am not optimistic as to its outcome: all too often in history, emotion trumps reason in times of crisis. Where is Cincinnatus when we need him?

  5. I haven’t forwarded anything in a while – but I’ll forward this.

    One quibble …..

    Everything they have implemented has failed.

    “Where leaders had once been inclined to alleviate societal pressures, they will now aggravate them to command the nation’s attention.”

    Have they failed?

  6. Kunstler, in his article today, thinks the financial crisis that hits in 2016 will be so bad that there won’t be a 2016 election. He’s pondered a military overthrow for a couple years now. I’d say it’s unlikely, but who knows.

    Could the Grey Champion be a General?

  7. Humans have known for eons that they were not capable of governing themselves, and thus the invention of Gods and Angels to try and help them make sense of our animal natures.

    Governments are run by humans, so we need to stop blaming “The Government”. Lets start calling a spade a spade and point out those in the human population that cannot be trusted to be altruistic in their nature, and govern responsibly.

    If a supposed “Expert” convinces our elected officials to act in such a manner that the outcome is disastrous, then that expert needs to also be brought up on charges of Fraud.

    If the American people adopted this approach those idiot Phds Professors and their ilk will soon stop meddling in affairs of which they are not in command. Just because some loud mouth college educated idiot professes to know something, it is still just conjecture regardless of their protestations that they have the answer to our problems.

    Our problems are very simple really. Our Animal natures still rule the world and everything used to try and manipulate and control that nature has come up against a brick wall.

    Sooo….. Apparently all the control mechanisms are still in the experimental stage where trial and error are considered part of the learning curve. Also, apparently we would give over our responsibilities to anyone who professes to know something with an authority that seems God-Like. And like those supposed Gods, have the power to back their ignorance. Think – America’s Foreign Policy to start with……

  8. James Quinn for Grey Prophet, 2016

    Vote James Quinn! A vote for James Quinn is a vote to go fuck yourself!

    (Technically not a Boomer by S&H definition, but probably close enough to be considered an outlier Prophet.)

  9. “Neo-feudalism (literally new feudalism – the terms are used interchangeably in the literature refers to a theorized contemporary rebirth of policies of governance, economy and public life reminiscent of those present in many feudal societies, such as unequal rights and legal protections for common people and for nobility.

    The concept of “neofeudalism” largely focuses on economics. Among the issues claimed to be associated with the idea of neofeudalism in contemporary society are class stratification, globalization, mass immigration/illegal immigration, open borders policies, multinational corporations, and neo-corporatism.”

    Donald Trump the Gray Champion? He may just be a bit too orange.

  10. The chill in the air is most welcome here on our little piece of the Ozarks. Like HSF, we know it means Autumn is here and Winter is coming, but also like him, we have been planning for this season for many years. Now that it is closing in, we are racing like ants to get everything ready.

    We prepare not necessarily for ourselves, but as some great-thinking men (whom we were once allowed to think of with great pride as our forefathers) said, but for our children and for our posterity if they manage to salvage anything worthwhile from the rubble. Unfortunately, we know now that we should be ashamed of every single one of those white sexist men who penned those words and set out upon what was the greatest social experiment attempted based on the idea that an individual’s worth was not defined by parentage or societal status, but by how much of his own energy, time and sheer willpower he was willing to devote to improving his lot in life. And, of course, we also have to cringe that I, a woman, would use the term “he” without apology or clarification.

    Well, I refuse to clarify. If you don’t understand or accept the idea that family with a man as the head of household, providing for and protecting his progeny was believed to be the cornerstone on which the foundation of a strong and lasting society could be formed, then you don’t understand that the great melting pot this country became because of the opportunities available to the individual was made possible because the foundation of the structure was solid and VALID. Even a house of cards will stand for a time on a solid foundation. Nothing will stand on shifting sand.

    So now that the foundation has been weakened by multiple attacks on the family unit as the basic building block on which civil society exists, our society wobbles and sways. What will be the great event that topples our house of cards? At this point, it doesn’t really matter… it only matters that you know it is falling soon.

    So, yes, we watch the election circus with disgusted interest. Quite often, Nick and I talk about whether the admiration we feel for the “great leaders” we learned about when we were in the military is the result of propaganda or if such a thing as courage and loyalty really did at one time exist in the upper echelon of our political establishment. Because, we know without a doubt it is not there now.

    Your article was most welcome and did not disappoint. I had not read about The Four Turnings until I happened upon TBP. Now that I have, I find myself looking to history to see if the patterns are always similar. So often we hear the decline of our great nation compare to that of Rome. I have been reading excerpts from The Fall of the Roman Empire: A New History of Rome and the Barbarians, by Peter Heather (New York, New York: Oxford University Press, 2006). This in particular strikes me as intriguing —

    A horde of Gothic immigrants was given amnesty and allowed to cross the Danube River on the west in 375 A.D. Because the Romans were fighting the Persian empire on the East, they were short on manpower in the Balkans, so the Emperor admitted the Gothic refugees. However, once the refugees ran out of food supplies, they began their own assault on the Empire from within.

    Hmmm… it does seem hauntingly familiar.

  11. Shiller called the 2000 bubble and the 2007 bubble. He’s now calling out the 2015 bubble.

    Shiller: Investors haven’t been this worried about a stock-market bubble since 2000

    By Barbara Kollmeyer

    Published: Sept 14, 2015 6:04 a.m. ET

    But don’t expect big market reaction from any Fed hike

    Investor fears that the stock market is overvalued have hit their highest level since the dot-com bubble’s peak in 2000, and that could lead to a bear market, warns Nobel-winning economist Robert Shiller.

    “It looks to me a bit like a bubble again with essentially a tripling of stock prices since 2009 in just six years and at the same time people losing confidence in the valuation of the market,” the Yale University professor told the Financial Times in an story published Sunday. “When we see a correction and an increase in the VIX, the problem is the short-run thing of when will it turn?”

    Shiller said those investor fears are showing up in his valuation confidence indexes, which are based on his surveys of investor sentiment. These indexes indicate that worries are at their greatest level since 2000. Shiller expressed concerns around a valuation confidence index in an interview with MarketWatch in the spring, when he noted confidence had been dropping for the past year.

    Recent increases in the CBOE Volatility Index VIX, +5.95% and market volatility also indicate that people are thinking “worried thoughts… and it suggests to me that many people are re-evaluating their exposure to the stock market. And we could see aftershocks of the correction,” though he said that may not happen right away.

    However, Shiller downplayed any potential market fallout if the Federal Reserve goes ahead with an interest-rate increase at its meeting this week. Markets are divided over whether the central bank go ahead with a hike.

    “It has been talked about for so long, everyone knows that it’s coming. It’s just not that much of a big deal,” he said.

    Read: Fed clarity won’t help to ease stock market volatility

    He also discussed his much-debated valuation measure, the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio or CAPE. It’s the ratio of the S&P 500 SPX, -0.20% to trailing 10-year average earnings. Shiller and others say the CAPE ratio shows stocks are overvalued, but that’s been the case for years while stock prices have been going up.

    Among the criticisms, some say CAPE isn’t reliable as it was distorted by a drop in earnings after Lehman Brothers went bankrupt in 2008. Shiller said that fall in earnings came from a deep recession, and that normally companies take write-offs early during a recession, giving earnings time to recover. “If I average over 10 years I don’t see that as a problem,” he told the FT.

  12. And yet another maga-wealthy ‘champion’ takes over, and this one is a limousine lliberal:

    “Australia is facing the prospect of its fifth leader in eight years after Prime Minister Tony Abbott on Monday was challenged by his popular communications minister after months of speculation and poor showings in opinion polls.

    Malcolm Turnbull, a multi-millionaire former tech entrepreneur, said he would seek the leadership of the ruling Liberal Party after being urged “by many people over a long period of time” to run amid criticism of Abbott’s performance.

    “Ultimately, the prime minister has not been capable of providing the economic leadership our nation needs,” Turnbull told reporters at parliament house in Canberra.

    “We need a different style of leadership.”

    Turnbull was Chairman of Goldman Sachs Australia from 1997-2001.”

  13. I was finally able to talk my mom into reading some of your articles. She says you’re either real smart or a fool pretending to be real smart. She hasn’t made up her mind.

    She said she thought Stucky was funny.Anyway looking forward to the third part.

  14. I think the US will mirror Oz with our next election, the Bernmeister will be voted in, and he will FDR the shit out of everything, destroying whats left of American manufacturing and crippling the middle class as he gives everything he can find away to the poor.

    Such a shame, we know how to fix this problem, but people have been enamored of the “Broken Window Fallacy” for too long, and thats not going to change now.

    Wealth is gained through production first and foremost. Emptying the pockets of the producers to fill buy out the consumers is a one-way ticket to a Chinese Democracy.

  15. Rumplestiltskin’s post reminded me of this line from Firefly.

    “A government is a body of people usually—notably—ungoverned.”

    -Shepard Book

  16. It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future. Yogi Berra. I’m sure glad I left part 1 alone, a lot more red meat here. A lot more everything here.Tough to argue with any of your facts, Jim, but there’s lots of other stuff here that runs contrary to my basic thinking. Gonna have to let this soak in a little. You are far more fatalistic than I am. To be continued.

  17. A lot of opinions up today from people I admire and respect, yourself, hussman, kunstler, and schiller, and yet I’m not convinced at all. Am I missing something? That’s a hell of a lot of current to swim against. Hmmm.

  18. Clinton Crash Continues: Hillary Loses Majority Support For First Time

    Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/14/2015 13:55 -0400

    The massively-funded Hillary Clinton campaign to run for President goes from worse to worserer. As The Hill reports, Clinton’s support has fallen 21 points since July, from 63 to 42%, according to a Washington Post/ABC News poll released Monday, dropping below 50% for the first time.

    As The Hill reports, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is faltering in her bid for the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination, a new national poll of Democratic-leaning voters shows.

    Clinton’s support has fallen 21 points since July, from 63 to 42 percent, according to a Washington Post/ABC News poll released Monday, dropping below 50 percent for the first time.
    Support for Clinton has particularly eroded among women, an integral demographic for her campaign, falling from 71 percent two months ago to 42 percent now.

    Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), who gained 10 percentage points since July, now stands at 24 percent support in the poll, while Vice President Joe Biden has gained 9 points amid increasing interest in a potential White House bid, putting him at 21 percent now.

    Should Biden opt not to run, Clinton leads Sanders, 56 percent to 28 percent.

    A majority of Americans, 55 percent, said they disapproved of the way Clinton has handled questions about her use of private email while serving as secretary of State. That includes a third of Democrats, 58 percent of independents and 83 percent of Republicans.

    Fifty-one percent of Americans think Clinton broke government rules regarding private email, while nearly a third, 32 percent, say she didn’t. Nearly half of Americans, 49 percent, don’t consider her use of private email as a legitimate issue, while 44 percent do.

  19. I’m just ready to get this show on the road. I’ve been ready for years, I’ve actually gotten lackadaisical, nothing breaks. I’m ready for the bottom to fall out and see the herd thinned out. To many dead beats leaching off the productive population. I am in top physical shape at 53 years old, I need to get this crisis kicked off now. I don’t want to see a continued slow decline over another decade, bring on the overnight collapse while I can still kick ass if need be.

  20. I really don’t think anything is going to happen in the short run except another round of QE. I’ve said it a million times, War will come before the dollar collapse’s. Obama is not going to kick off a war so we should continue to drift along until the next President is in office.

  21. As long as the Fed can keep pumping money in the back door of the banks and the stock market, the lying / manipulation can go on for a long time. The corps will amass huge alleged wealth, and the banks will have a great balance sheet. This will keep enough of us serfs employed, and pay for all the entitlements.

    However, some day, some day there will be a need for something more than money. Then all the billion and trillion dollar corps will be SOL.

    1. The One-Man Roadshow of Donald Trump

      By Monica Langley

      NEW YORK— Donald Trump skipped breakfast one recent morning, blow-dried his hair in his Trump Tower penthouse and headed out to his personal Boeing 757 jet, dubbed “Trump Force One” since he emerged as the Republican presidential front-runner.

      Seated in his plane’s living room, with its pearlwood and 24-carat gold trim, Mr. Trump worked alone, watching the big-screen TV and reading the day’s political news, mostly about him, with no binders of policy positions or talking points in sight. Upon landing, he waded alone into a throbbing mob desperate for his autograph at a packed Nashville rally.

      It all fit the rule for staffers scrawled on a white board at campaign headquarters: “Let Trump Be Trump.”

      The 69-year-old billionaire has soared to the top of the Republican field flying solo—a man and his plane, propelled forward by a gust of free media attention and virtually devoid of the staff, position papers, opposition researchers and ad budgets of modern campaigns. Now, though, with the time for summer flings ending and more serious voter examination just ahead, the Trump effort has reached an inflection point, at which he must decide whether he can continue to prosper as this kind of one-man show or whether the time for that is running out.

      Travels and extensive conversations with Mr. Trump in recent weeks show that, while he is slowly beginning to bend to some candidate norms—opening state offices, readying ballot-access drives and preparing a tax plan—he continues to resist the experts’ view that he needs a conventional campaign apparatus.

      “A lot of what I’m doing is by instinct,” Mr. Trump said in one of several interviews. “I assimilate a lot of information…and I believe in being strategic.” Instead of surrounding himself with what he called “political hacks,” Mr. Trump said, “I don’t need an inner circle.” His rationale: In an “age of specialization, I am tapping phenomenal people in every field.”

      His tax plan, likely to come in the next couple of weeks, will reflect this approach. Figuring that “no candidate ever has known the tax code better than I do,” the longtime businessman issued directives: Simplify and cut taxes, help the middle class, solve the problem of corporate “inversions” in which companies move headquarters abroad, and “tax the paper-pushing hedge-fund guys.”

      Without much staff, campaign manager Corey Lewandowski has worked with outside advisers to flesh out the details of the tax plan, particularly to end up with a revenue-neutral result that neither raises nor lowers overall receipts. “We’re running an efficient organization with a business mind-set,” Mr. Lewandowski said. “We don’t need high-priced staff or consultants when leading authorities are volunteering to help Mr. Trump.”

      Regarding his own tax rate, Mr. Trump said, “I would be happy to pay a lot more if it would help solve our country’s many problems.” He hasn’t released his tax returns but said he definitely would, without specifying when or the number of tax years.

      Despite the bare-bones framework he has in place, Mr. Trump vows: “I will build a successful campaign for the long haul…I’ve never lost in my life.”

      Republican strategist Kevin Madden said Mr. Trump faces new and serious threats. “One big question is whether he can turn momentum from celebrity fandom into an actual infrastructure to organize voters in cold gymnasiums in the dead of winter in Iowa…Trump hasn’t seen a full-on assault, which is just beginning, with millions of dollars in paid advertising and their relentless attacks.”

      Criticism by his opponents is intensifying, calls for him to spell out what policies he believes in are growing, and Mr. Trump is entering the phase of the campaign cycle in which previous early GOP sensations have either faded or crashed.

      Mr. Trump is reacting with characteristic bravado. “I hope they attack me, because everybody who attacks me is doomed.”
      Surprise success

      When he stood in Trump Tower’s marble-and-bronze lobby on Fifth Avenue in Manhattan to announce his long-shot bid in June, few predicted the success Mr. Trump has had, not even him. “I had no idea I would do this well this fast,” he said, particularly after he was pummeled for calling some Mexican illegal immigrants “rapists” and “murderers,” which led Macy’s to drop his clothing line and Univision to end the Spanish broadcast of his Miss Universe pageant.

      “The first two weeks were very bad for my brand,” said Mr. Trump, whose Trump Organization line of luxury properties includes hotels, golf courses and both residential and commercial high-rise buildings. In his office on Trump Tower’s 26th floor, the walls, tables and floors brim with testaments to his success—his best-selling books such as “Trump: the Art of the Deal,” magazine covers, the chair from which he told contestants “You’re fired!” on the hit reality-TV show “The Apprentice.”

      After that rocky start, his poll numbers rose all summer, shaking up the GOP race and drowning out coverage of other contenders. The presidential bid is turning out to be “very good for the brand,” Mr. Trump said. “I’m No. 1.”

      Jenny Beth Martin, chairman of the Tea Party Patriots Citizens Fund, said the appeal is simple: “A lot of what Trump is saying is what many outside of D.C. are thinking.”

      With fall arriving, Mr. Lewandowski is building what he calls an “atypical bottom-up model” of a campaign structure that has as many staff members in Iowa as in Trump Tower. “We get zero votes in headquarters,” said Mr. Lewandowski, from the sparse campaign office on the unfinished fifth floor in Trump Tower.

      National political director Michael Glassner, who along with Mr. Lewandowski is among the few seasoned campaign operatives on the staff, said he has been Skyping with potential hires and renting space in states based on the electoral map. He is overseeing the nitty-gritty of ballot access in all 50 states and petition drives in the 11 that require voter signatures.

      Press secretary Hope Hicks, a onetime Ralph Lauren model who was communications director in the Trump Organization’s real-estate and hotel division, juggles a demanding national press corps and a boss with a penchant for doing his own media. Daniel Scavino, who started as Mr. Trump’s caddie in high school and rose to operate one of his golf clubs, is running social media, in which he has been flooded with résumés and 98,000 messages in a month.
      Donald Trump at his campaign headquarters in the Trump Tower in Manhattan, where his staff remains small. ENLARGE
      Donald Trump at his campaign headquarters in the Trump Tower in Manhattan, where his staff remains small. Photo: Chris Buck for The Wall Street Journal

      When a court overturned the NFL suspension of New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady over “deflategate,” Mr. Lewandowski reminded his boss, a friend of the football star, “Don’t forget to tweet how happy you are that Brady is vindicated.” When Mr. Brady gave his first press remarks, a red Trump “Make America Great Again” hat was visible in his locker.

      So far, the campaign website holds exactly one position paper, on the candidate’s now-well-known ideas for stopping illegal immigration. Besides a tax plan, Mr. Trump said he would begin releasing proposals on trade, health care and military and veterans issues.

      But he added, “People don’t care about seeing plans. They have confidence in me.” There is little sign his is turning into anything like a conventional campaign.

      Over Labor Day weekend, Mr. Trump stayed out of sight while other candidates paraded and picnicked in early-primary states, “That’s the exact opposite of what works for you,” Mr. Lewandowski advised Mr. Trump. “We want you where massive numbers of people can hear you and your messages, not a few watching you walk down a street.”

      Instead, Mr. Trump huddled with advisers who volunteered to prep him for Wednesday’s debate on military and foreign-policy issues. Mr. Trump said he wasn’t cramming, though: “I’ve been prepping for 30 years.”

      He limits his appearances largely to those before big crowds to ensure maximum media coverage. He will speak to about 20,000 in Dallas Monday night and then fly to Los Angeles to address veterans in front of the USS Iowa battleship. After Wednesday’s debate at the Reagan Library, he plans to fly overnight to New Hampshire for a rally in the first primary state.

      Mr. Trump’s penchant for mocking opponents in his own party, as well as media figures, shows little sign of abating. Asked about a report of his disparaging former Hewlett-Packard Chief Executive Carly Fiorina with the line “Look at that face. Would anyone vote for that?” Mr. Trump said: “She’s got the wrong persona. I’m not talking about her looks. She failed miserably at HP and in her Senate race.” Ms. Fiorina later said she didn’t worry about what he meant but suggested she was getting under his skin.

      Mr. Trump also has belittled former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush’s “low energy” style but now says he is losing interest because “Jeb is just single digits” in the polls. Instead, he now directs fire at former neurosurgeon Ben Carson : “Jeb looks like the Energizer bunny compared to him.” Mr. Carson declined to comment; Mr. Bush has said Mr. Trump can’t “insult [his] way to the nomination.”

      Sometimes, Mr. Trump simply ignores the conventions. Before the first GOP debate, candidates were invited to go for a walk-through, microphone check and makeup stop. Mr. Trump skipped it all, getting off his plane in time to line up with his rivals right before walking on stage, a campaign aide said.

      His circle of outside advisers is equally unorthodox. Mr. Trump recently dined with activist investor Carl Icahn to “energize Carl about dealing with China, Japan and Mexico,” he said. Mr. Icahn hosted the dinner on his apartment terrace and recalls telling Mr. Trump, “You’re striking a nerve with the people who are tired of getting screwed.”

      But, Mr. Icahn added, “The rich guys in the Hamptons don’t like you too much.” Mr. Trump’s reply was, “Who cares? They are all giving money to Hillary and Jeb anyway.”

      Mr. Trump said he is talking with some of America’s “biggest corporate names and finest negotiators” about renegotiating trade deals and making sure the U.S. isn’t disadvantaged. “I’ll give you each a country” to deal with if he wins, he said he has told them.

      Another close adviser is his 33-year-old daughter Ivanka Trump, who oversees Trump Organization real estate and hotel development in addition to heading her apparel and accessories brand. She introduced her father when he announced his candidacy and talks to him several times a day. On Thursday, she stopped by to ask him to meet with a business client in the building.

      In the meantime, Ms. Trump’s work leading the renovation of Washington, D.C.’s Old Post Office into a luxury Trump hotel is giving her dad an applause line on the stump: “I got it from the Obama administration—can you believe that? And it’s ahead of schedule and under budget!”
      Irked by a sign

      One of Mr. Trump’s themes has been his willingness to fund his own campaign while others “take money from lobbyists and special interests.” So when he swooped into Boston recently for an appearance hosted by a local auto magnate, he grew angry at a sign asking for $100 donations at the door to cover the event’s costs, and had his staff remove it. Even so, media reports called the gathering a fundraiser.

      On on the flight back, Mr. Trump told his campaign manager, “I’ve turned down a $5 million donation, and then that stupid sign. My trip cost more than the $2,000 raised to cover their food.” Mr. Trump said he has spent around $2 million of his own money to date.

      The next day, he headed to Nashville for a rally on his 757, which was largely empty as usual but for his four top campaign aides and five security guards sitting in back. There were no flight attendants or drinks served, but a binder of Miss Universe contestants was stacked in a corner with luxury magazines.

      In Nashville, he told the audience, “I’m going to make this country rich again” and joked to them, “I need your friggin’ votes.”

      Back home in New York, Mr. Trump said his real-estate business is evolving as he campaigns: “As the days go by, I give more and more to my children to run, and my executives.” His three older children with his first wife, Ivana, run divisions from the 25th floor. His fourth child, with ex-wife Marla Maples, is a student at the University of Pennsylvania, where Mr. Trump graduated from the Wharton School.

      After work, he rode the elevator to the 68th floor to the penthouse home, decorated in Louis XIV style, that he shares with wife Melania and their 9-year-old son Barron. He emptied his pockets of germicidal hand wipes and $100 bills he sometimes hands to volunteers on the trail.

      He caught up on news and the other candidates’ actions, as well as some of his own speeches recorded by his wife, who is more technologically adept. Mr. Trump doesn’t use a computer. He relies on his smartphone to tweet jabs and self-promotion, often late into the night, from a chaise longue in his bedroom suite in front of a flat-screen TV.

      Later, in a rare moment of reflection, he likened being a candidate to the real-estate business and said he considers himself a better builder than marketer:

      “Just as I’ve built great buildings that sell themselves, I believe in my product now. I’m prepared that if my truth doesn’t sell, the campaign won’t succeed. As in my buildings and my presidential campaign, the people will buy if they want the product. I don’t have to be the best salesman.”

  22. What TE said.

    Admin you’re a smart guy, now if we could only open your eyes to the truth about 9/11 and climate change.

  23. Sooooo. …Which Presidential candidate is against all of the Wall Street corruption and the disparity of incomes that has destroyed the Middle Class. Only one. Bernie. The rest are so bought off by Wall Street that they can not come out and state the obvious much less propose a solution to it.

  24. things really aren’t that bad compared to the nihilism in this piece.

    I just met a millennial that bought a house over here in Vegas. of course the real estate is dirt cheap out here.

    I still see a lot of growth when I look around. There’s a Buffalo Wild Wings opening up down the street. I don’t see many empty buildings. A lot of construction being done. Plenty of tourists/gambling.

    Even back in LA, things looked good. I can’t tell you how things look outside of the big cities though. I don’t think we will see a major collapse in our lifetime. We may see market crashes similar to 2008. But as far as a revolution or uprising of the people .. I doubt it.

  25. In three minutes we’re leaving for an all-you-can-eat $24.95 Japanese sushi joint. How many sushi fishies can old lard ass eat? Don’t know … never did a sushi buffet. I’ll count ’em, but I’m guessing 53.

    See ya!!

  26. Admin

    We sure live in a fascinating era. Watching the Old Order fall apart and waiting with a mixture of dread and exhilaration to see what replaces it holds a morbid allure for the awake. This piece is an excellent and concise summation of the timbre of the times. A++

  27. I haven’t been to Vegas in years, but when I was there in the AF days, we stayed at a dive hotel three blocks off the strip and it was on a street with dozens of pawn shops and buy/sell/trade auto dealers. The strip looked AWESOME…

  28. Don’t get down on procrastinator, because, after all, for some folks the economy has never been better.

    “The richest 85 people in the world hold as much wealth as the bottom half of the global population, according to a January 2014 report by Oxfam International, a British humanitarian group, as reported in the Seattle Times.

    About 3.5 billion people, the bottom half, account for about $1.7 trillion while the wealthy elite, a small part of the richest 1 percent, now hold about 46 percent of the world’s wealth — $110 trillion — the report said.

    It also said the percentage of income of the richest 1 percent in America has grown almost 150 percent from 1980 through 2012 — and has received 95 percent of wealth created after the financial crisis in 2008.”

    Money flows from the bottom to the top, and while the bottom is getting much larger and much poorer, the top is getting smaller and far wealthier. So how we doing in this present economy? It all depends on who the “we” are.

  29. Cheap sushi. Bad idea. Stuck is gonna need to be wormed afterward, and he will bring a case of the shits to Olympic qualifying standards.

    It may be some time before we hear from Stuck again. Hope he stocked up on tp.

    Nice article.

    Are these Grey Prophets actually of value, or are they assholes like Lincoln and FDR?

  30. Llpoh- Curious, what is a big buffet item in the outback? Do you even have buffets?

    No way I could eat 53 pieces of sushi, that would cause a major blowout.

  31. Bea – much the same as in the states, but fewer options. Frankly, the US has better regional food – bbq, ribs, etc.

    Australia has really nice restaurant dining, but no good Mexican or southern cooking, which I dearly love. So I have every bbq and smoking device known to man, and make my own, and have a couple good mex dishes I make – my mom’s chilli verde is yummy. On my kamado I can make the best steak, chicken and Christmas turkey ever. My tip – get a good digital thermometer. No over or under cooked meat ever again.

  32. Llpoh says: It may be some time before we hear from Stuck again. Hope he stocked up on tp.

    Women make calls while in the stall, Stucky will be posting yet another article.

  33. 48

    They came 12 to a plate per order. I was up to 4 plates … coulda done another plate, but I ran out of time …. 2 hour limit. Yelp customer ratings gave it pretty much 5 stars across the board, so I’m not too worried about the shits.

  34. ” I’m not too worried about the shits.”

    Thanks for sharing. Good to know that you will still be able to live up to your screen name.

  35. If somehow the Trump train runs out of track and Bernie has a heart attack, and the old guard of Bush and Clinton end up on their respective tickets, the populace will go bananas with anger, methinks.

    I need to buy more popcorn.

  36. OK, I promised myself I wasn’t going to read this shit and now I have started. Being a new student in bullshit I need to get some basics. In the first paragraph and the first sentence we begin discussing regeneracy? And, in the second sentence of the first paragraph we will be discussing Grey Champion prophet generation.

    Shit o dear, my first class and my first hour here at the university and I’m already behind all the other students?? This is not looking good!

    Second paragraph second sentence. Finally I recognize something that has some familiarity. “Notwithstanding his Nobel Peace Prize”??? Seriously, the next 3 hours of reading this is going to see a relationship of content based on the relativity of Obama receiving the NPP?

    I’ve got to stop right here professor.

    You see, the Nobel has historically been given to some total shysters as of the last few decades. It is a meaningless sham that liberals, and I mean liberals in the sense that not only have their contributions to humanity been zero, nil, zilch, but as a community of intellectual elites such as you would find at the academy awards they are a circle jerk of self congratulating fools who are born into or travel in the right circles. Obama as an example of being given the award for “peace on earth” when in fact through the magic of electronic voting and mass hysteria because he represented a historical moment, the first black man to be yada yada in racist white America, had done nothing at all to merit or warrant receiving this sham award. Now as I head into the remaining 2hours and 58 minutes of the torture that I was expecting, given that I read part I of the fourth turning I am a little suspect of what is to come? If anyone can summarize this for me the information will be greatly appreciated.

    -A D student in an F Class!

  37. The N.P.P. is about the clearest form of a Title of Nobility, expressly forbidden by the Constitution by sitting officials of government, but no congresscritter would draft articles of impeachment on that because they all covet one themselves.

  38. I think sensetti and dutch have this right. Liquidity is the new solvency. And nothing comes apart at the seams as long as things remain liquid/solvent. And they know how to do that. So you can take your fingers out of your ears. Ain’t gonna be no big event. 2008 was the big one. And TPTB got lucky, they got to replace a completely befuddled and demoralized bush with a dillatante with 7th grade math skills and no moral compass.

  39. Bush got steamrolled in his second term. He turned out to be exactly what the liberal caricature of him was, a dumbass way in over his head. Obama was even less, a busboy level intellect captivated by all the failed ideologies of the the loser class. Obama is like a squirrel on a busy highway, everywhere he turns there are big fast deadly things zipping around he can’t quite comprehend.

  40. The global economy is a farce, as currently constructed. Think of it as a collection of niggertowns, willing to spend lavishly on anything shiny, as long as the EBT cards get charged every month. It turns to detroit as soon as the spigots shut off. It is as self sustaining as jim’s 30 blocks of squalor. Right now, it’s mantua square, with granite countertops and shiny new everything, paid for by the miracle of free money.

  41. When we stop funding this madness, america will be fine. Quickly. Forget strauss and howe. There is a cycle at work, but a much accelerated one. My analogy would be a gas tank. We have sucked it dry. Time to focus on refilling it. Forget the people of walmart, our country is full of people ready, willing and able to get their hands dirty with the hard work of refilling our national tank

  42. Germany & Austria Close Borders — Schengen Agreement Under Pressure — Will War Emerge?

    Posted on September 15, 2015 by Martin Armstrong

    The Schengen Agreement was to be the cornerstone of the entire euro proposition. We just warned that this freedom of movement would begin to come under pressure with this turning point:“As the economy turns down very hard after 2015.75, we are more likely than not going to see the freedom of movement in Europe fragment and that will be the crack that signals the eventual risk of breaking up the EU idea of empire-building.”

    Germany has closed its borders with Austria and in turn Austria has now closed its border with Hungary. We are starting to witness the turn. Obama praised Merkel for accepting so many refugees, but after Merkel boasted that there was no limit to the number of refugees Germany would accept, it set in motion a huge migrant crisis. All public buildings and stadiums are full. Germany cannot handle any more refugees and these people have to be fed. Besides that, the winter will be harsh and many could die from exposure. This is going to be a real crisis.

    Then, the headlines in France yesterday declared in the latest polls that 56% of the French people are now in favor of war. We are looking at the economy turning down very hard and the blame will be directed at the immigrants fleeing because of ISIS. We will see war rise because of this issue, as they are blamed for the economic decline in Europe. With unemployment among the youth already at 50% on average in many areas, accepting this many migrants who will also be unemployed will topple the economic system in Europe. We are seeing the seeing for this turning point of 2015.75 unfold before our eyes. As always, domestic populations will blame the migrants for the economic decline.

  43. The clinton/bush/obama years are like a backed up toilet to someone who doesn’t know how to fix it, an overwelming putrid mess of unsolvable horrors. Then daddy gets home, fixes the problem, one flush, and, why was that so hard? Normalcy returns, everyone is happy and goes back to their routine

  44. Shengen could have worked just fine with a fiercely defended EU border, a policy of no welfare for immigrants and some sanity about who got to be in the club. Liberals will fuck up anything

  45. Here’s where I think we’re headed. We muddle through the rest of obama. A rising sense of hope and urgency keeps people from getting too down. A landslide election sets a clear course, rebuild our country. And so we unleash another 20 year run of prosperity, and for most of us, that will take us to the house. The rest of the world, meh.

  46. One other thing. My analogy of a toilet full of sewage that could be flushed away in an instant. I was referring to our political problems. An even bigger opportunity exists in mainstream media. Somebody is going to fill the truth telling vacuum. Ideology or not. The commercial rewards are just too great to ignore. You heard it here first.

  47. Jim, when I seem dismissive of strauss & howe, ron paul, etc., not the case. To use the football analogy again, brett favre was great, but he’s not the guy today, rodgers is. That’s why you have 3rd down backs, someone fresh to stick his head in the hole. Strauss, howe, paul,bbuchanan, these guys are giants, but now other guys need to stand on their shoulders and hit the hole.

  48. Vast majority of Americans can hardly afford to buy gas to get to work all week (for the one’s who still have a job), yet we see hundreds of thousands of migrants with tickets to travel from one part of the world to another. Who is paying for this migration of people? And in most of the pics I have seen of migrants walking along roadsides, they are clad in brand new clothing.

    Has anyone else noticed this besides me?

  49. I’ll probably take some flak for this, but here goes:

    Liquidity, or the ability to meet short-term cash flow requirements, works right up until solvency is demanded.

    In the derivatives markets, liquidity can meet covenants that are tripped wherein payment (a penalty of a sort) is contractually required. But when markets accelerate the amount due in-full under clauses that allow them to do so, that’s when solvency becomes an issue, as it did with Lehman Brothers in 2008 (actually, Bear Stearns, which was leveraged at 35:1 when it imploded. THIS was the wake up call few heeded, as it was the event that led to the 2008 “Great Recession.”). By comparison, in a very real sense, sovereign debt will be the next “subprime.”

    When, not if, but when circumstances enable derivatives investors to begin demanding payment-in-full, that’s when liquidity reaches it’s limitation and solvency comes into question – the US has the Fed, the EU has its ECB, but neither could fund the bailout of a Spain or Italy. How fast would the USD or Euro be hit in market value if they were even remotely capable of doing this? How fast in turn would currency swaps be triggered as a result? Sovereign debt derivatives have the potential to wreak havoc on world markets, exacerbated by “bond vigilantes,” massive hedge funds that bet against a debt problem and accelerate it downward (driving up the rates required to issue it).

    Almost all economies, certainly the major ones, in way or another, are inextricably linked via the derivatives markets (currency swaps being the easiest example).

    The world’s major economies are like heavily-laden boats in bad seas; in this instance the cargo is government debt obligations. All it will take are a series of progressively worsening storms, some at first glance not so severe, and at some point boats will start taking on water. There will be an inflection point, wherein all the liquidity in the world won’t solve this problem because that same liquidity will simply manifest out of newly-issued debt, which win turn will only drive the boats’ gunwales deeper into the water. It’s a self-reinforcing, negative feedback loop. As that happens, contractual covenants allowing payment-in-full will be triggered (e.g., when debt-to-income exceeds predetermined levels), and its game over.

    The next crisis is probably not on anyone’s radar at the moment – there are just too many things that could go wrong to say any specific one will be it. The reality, however, is that by having produced so much debt, and potentially magnified its impact with derivatives, in some cases multiples of times over, the threat of default rises dramatically, as does the probability.

    The US is not going to simply extract itself from the world stage and begin, “A New Day.” It’s the ultimate in hubris for some political contenders to claim this, and even more naive to believe it. Assuming this will be the case will only make the effects of a worldwide downturn that much harder to endure, and to solve.

    There are no simple answers. It doesn’t matter how “smart” anyone claims to be, a day of debt reckoning is coming, and probably sooner rather than later.

    The only honest question is how prepared, or unprepared, will we be to handle it?

  50. Backtable, it depends on how and what you consider that the financial system represents. Is it the grease that keeps the actual economy functioning, or is it the actual economy itself? I tend to believe it’s the former. The excess (the latter) is in for a world of hurt, as the unpayable will not be paid. Doesn’t bother me a bit. I don’t consider debt destruction the collapse of the economy.

  51. @Backtable… there may be flak, but not from me. I agree with you. Somehow TPTB have convinced the world that as long as they continue to pump liquidity into the system, the system is just fine. The reason it is NOT fine should be obvious to people as they go about their merry way purchasing cans of processed food grown who knows where in what kind of chemical laden soil and paying $1 per can for what my mother bought ten cans for a dollar thirty years ago. And paying $5 per lb for a pot roast that is beautifully red on its face only to discover a strange hue inside the unwashed meat inside should you decide to cut it prior to cooking.

    Actions eventually have consequences. You can forestall them for a time and a half, but eventually, the bill comes due.

  52. What economy do you anticipate we will have? One like we have today, functioning smoothly, no real bumps in the road as we wipe away nearly $20 trillion in national debt? My point is that politicians tell people what they want to hear, mainly the id-driven hope, “We can have it all with no pain!”

    There will be substantial pain. You don’t threaten China with 20-30% trade tariffs and get away with it unscathed. Not when they hold a sizable amount of your debt. You don’t enact currency policies that crush emerging market economies without the potential for some serious fallout.

    You can’t make America an overnight net-exporter with a strong dollar, nor can you remove the nation from the rest of the world economy and remain the world’s reserve currency.

    We want it both ways and it simply doesn’t work like that – not without massive sacrifices, and this is precisely what no politician will ever, at least to date, tell the American people. You can’t run massive deficits and expect to be able to fund the entitlement programs unfurling into the future. Hell, you can’t do it now and continue to run the country, period.

    Again, I don’t doubt America has the capacity to be great, I’m simply saying that believing it’s going to happen without real, and in some cases tough, sacrifices is extremely naive. Disappointment, often rising to anger, stems from having unmet expectations and this is why it is critical to clarify at the outset not only “the what” but “the how” in fulfilling them. Otherwise assumptions are made and the reality can be far, far different than anticipated.

  53. 5 paragraphs. One at a time. First. What kind of economy? One based on production, not fantasy. Second. Fuck china. we can monetize our debt to them in seconds with the push of a fed button. Without our trade deficit, they are toast, not us. Third. Didn’t make any of those arguements. In fact, make opposite points.

  54. Fourth, who’s we? The people who expect their paper portfolio or massive pension promise to allow them to retire at 50 and live like kings are going to get crushed. So what? They won’t starve. Their disappointment isn’t my problem. They better get ready to work. Fifth. RIght on

  55. Gut wrenching , but excellent read admin. Makes me sick to witness Western civilization being destroyed by global corporatism all for the sake of their insatiable greed and bestial power mongering.

    As third world culture becomes more established in the West ,so will grow the levels of private and public corruption ,crime and total lawlessness until we’re no different than any other third world nation made up of tow classes. The permanent rich and the perpetually poor.

    The rising popularity of Trump is totally built on this increasing awareness of Western culture to recognize that allowing unchecked immigration is national suicide or more accurately stated , national murder and at the hands of those sworn to protect and preserve our national interests. We the People have been betrayed.

    Again +1000


  56. 1. “One based on production, not fantasy.”

    Domestic or export consumption? If domestic, you really think we’re going to put the 94 million out-of-work people we have now back on the payroll selling stuff to one another?

    If foreign, explain how the strongest currency remains so and is still able to generate enough sales to sustain those domestic industries?

    If by production you mean “making things,” the one word, “automation.”

    2. “Fuck China.”

    Yeah, that’ll have absolutely no reverberations, anywhere.

    3. How many more “opposite points” do you want?

    We don’t get from point A to Nirvana without REAL pain. The world doesn’t write off the debt its carrying with the fallout hitting everyone, almost everywhere.

    In your previous entry, you wrote:

    “The excess (the latter) is in for a world of hurt, as the unpayable will not be paid. Doesn’t bother me a bit. I don’t consider debt destruction the collapse of the economy.”

    That unpayable debt? That’s an opposite side’s asset. And yes, they do care. They have enough power and the willingness to use it that if pushed hard enough they would. The costs would be high for all involved and they undoubtedly wouldn’t prevail, but there’d be a serious struggle, nonetheless. It’s easy to dismiss it all with the swipe of hand as if to imply there are no real difficulties involved, but there would be.

    I envision an ending that involves more local production, greater local control, and a better way of life for everyone in this country, I just don’t expect it to unfold without some seriously trying times along the way. And being told to believe otherwise? I’ll stick with what I believe in, what the past has shown, and what those in power are doing (which veers from nothing to making matters worse).

  57. You and your export obsession. I don’t give a fuck about the global economy. It’s a failed experiment the way it is currently being run. There is a huge difference between gross and net. Our trade deficits mean we have ZERO net. In fact we have the opposite. A DEFICIT.Stop wetting your pants about reverbarations. Let china worry about china.

  58. Naw, you’re right.

    Thanks for schooling me on this.

    I’m obviously in way over my head here on TBP…and feeling relieved there’s nothing to worry about.

  59. There’s plenty to worry about. We are all in over our heads, in the search for truth, that’s why we’re here in jim’s world. Your last paragraph is is spot on, that’s exactly how I see it. Globalization has been dogmatic for 25 years. I don’t want to bleed a half trillion dollars to prop up china.

  60. Rich writes:
    “Money flows from the bottom to the top, and while the bottom is getting much larger and much poorer, the top is getting smaller and far wealthier. So how we doing in this present economy? It all depends on who the “we” are.”

    So easy to restate the old Marxian adage, and so wrong still.
    There is little to nothing on the bottom to flow to the top, you don’t fill a water tank from a dry river.
    Yes, it’s coming from somewhere, but that’s the middle not the bottom

    It’ that middle that’s descending as the flow continues, but they’re not of the bottom.

    The bottom is actually the fail-safe for all this: they greedily lap up the bread-crumbs tossed their way by the siphoning class, and help keep them in power
    That’s what makes democracy such a useful scheme:

    The leeches guarantee a voting majority that will keep them in power.
    None of this new, the main difference is that today’s helots don’t even know they’re enslaved.

    And this goes to show how tired and trite Sanders is:
    his criticism falls exactly in the same vein, coming from his out-data proto-communist thinking.

    And flak all you want: he is of the class that put this crap out there within the last 200 years.

  61. The United States for all practical purposes is bankrupt at this very moment and has been for years now. The U.S. Equity Markets are rigged and manipulated and have been since at least the creation of the plunge protection team post 1987 crash, but yet the game continues. The question is why? The answer is –> modern accounting principles do not apply, not even in the least. To even attempt to discuss our current fiscal modality using accounting terminology is naive at best, bordering on insanity at worst.
    There’s a Global power structure in place that manipulates markets and ALL mediums of exchange including precious metals. This power structure has bought and paid for politicians, media outlets, and has the ability to pull the strings on the most powerful military standing on this planet. Pay attention to this next sentence it’s the key!! In order for a different outcome to manifest the variables in the equation must change and only WAR will change those variables. They can print money to move markets, they can manipulate global assets to move foreign Governments, this power structure will Rule until it doesn’t. You will have plenty of warning when “The Crash” is imminent, World War 3 will be playing outside your window.

    There it is, absolutely free of charge, a prophetic road map to the future which time will prove to be precisely accurate, if you have ears, then hear, if you have reason, then understand. Dont sit in your suburban neighborhood buy a few ounces of gold and tell yourself everything will work out, the wisdom of the next generation will rise to meet the occasion, you may end up confused and very disappointed. But, “People believe what they need to believe when they need to believe it” unknown.

  62. Trump ain’t no Grey Champion. WHY did he sign the RNC Loyalty Pledge?


    The Beginning of the End for Trump? The Donald Signs RNC Loyalty Pledge

    Hated insurgent Donald Trump has finally bowed to pressure and signed off on the Stalinist loyalty oath concocted by the Republican party establishment. The pledge was delivered to him by RNC boss Reince Priebus who was under mounting pressure by the big money donors to bring the bombastic billionaire outsider to heel. How the pledge will affect the Donald’s lead in the polls and whether it will give the green light for the entire stable of establishment candidates to go for his throat has yet to be seen. However, to those who ardently supported him due to his independent status, the agreement to not run as a third-party candidate and support the nominee – effectively surrendering his leverage –there has to be more than a bit of a feeling of betrayal.

    Trump’s acceptance of the new rules of engagement are reported by CNN in the story “Donald Trump signs RNC loyalty pledge”:

    Donald Trump has signed the pledge.

    The Republican presidential front-runner met privately with Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus Thursday afternoon, and soon after, came out to the lobby of Trump Tower to declare that he has signed a loyalty pledge. This means Trump has promised to support the party’s eventual nominee — whoever that may be — and that he will not run as a third-party candidate.

    “The best way for the Republicans to win is if I win the nomination and go directly against whoever they happen to put up. And for that reason, I have signed the pledge,” Trump said, holding up the paper. “So I will be totally pledging my allegiance to the Republican Party and for the conservative principles for which it stands.”

    He added: “We will go out and fight hard, and we will win.”

    All 17 Republican presidential candidates have now pledged to support the GOP’s eventual presidential nominee, Priebus announced Thursday evening in a statement, billing it as a sign of “party unity.”

    But if Trump’s official declaration of allegiance to the party serves to calm the nerves of establishment Republicans — at least for now — it could also invite backlash from some of the bombastic candidate’s die-hard supporters.

    Trump has propelled himself to the top of the polls by casting himself as an anti-establishment, outsider candidate, railing against career politicians and the Washington political class.

    Signing an RNC pledge complicates that image.

    The enthusiasm that Trump brought to a large segment of the party base struck mortal terror into the hearts of Priebus and the elite who much like the Democrats with Queen Hillary had already decided on their 2016 standard bearer “Jeb!”. Now a lot of those folks are naturally going to feel that they have been sold out again with the memory of the Boehner-McConnell backstabbing of November 2014 still fresh in their minds. While the Trump public relations team talked it up as a victory it may soon prove to the moment when the wave crested and then began to recede as the establishment has reasserted control over the process.

  63. Trump’s not even close to being done, Mother Fuckers been winning his whole life. I’m backing him now, I’m sure that will be enough to propel him straight in to the White House. Now, how he plans to eradicate the ghetto stigma left behind by the previous occupants is another matter. He may have to burn the bitch to the ground and rebuild. Hell, that’s what he do, build it back with opulence. He’ll stamp a big gold TRUMP on the front of that fucker. Side Note: I bet the First Lady will be a knock out, none of this ugly shit we embarrassingly have to watch parade across our TB screens. I’m ready we need a new Don!!!

  64. Trump is the Gloden Champion. Trump reads The Burning Platform so be careful how you talk about the last President. Stuceeeeeeeeeeeee

  65. Trump will be the perfect exclamation point in history, a testament to the hubris of excess. FUCK IT, let’s party, for tomorrow the bankers gonna call the note !!!!!!!

  66. flash says: Gut wrenching , but excellent read admin. Makes me sick to witness Western civilization being destroyed by global corporatism all for the sake of their insatiable greed and bestial power mongering.

    Living with Dementia must be a bitch Flash! Gut Wrenching, really? You’ve been reading this blog for years and this article woke you the fuck up? There’s some seriously fucked up shit going on between those satellite dishes strapped to the sides of your head. Go to your doctor and request to be placed on Aricept immediately it may buy you a little time before a stranger starts wiping your ass for you.

  67. On the Trump loyalty oath, could turn out to be a brilliant tactical maneuver, as it puts him in a position to ask the other candidates to pledge to support *him* if he wins the primaries, or even leads in the polls against the Democrat front-runner.

    I’m starting to believe that Trump could well be the next president, which worries me in this respect: what happens if there’s a Fourth Turning crisis and no resolution? I can see Trump doing some popular things, like deporting a bunch of Hispanics and modifying some trade treaties, while the banksters and the corps and the MIC remain firmly in charge. Providing the illusion of normalcy while the country continues being driven into the ground.

    Bea, I suspect you’re right, we’re being had — again.

  68. AnarchoPagan says: what happens if there’s a Fourth Turning crisis and no resolution?

    I never made to the liquor store yet. I’ve stopped at my very most favorite Mexican restaurant and BAR! When I walk through the door it’s all smiles and someone runs to get me a half gallon margarita with a couple extra shots of Chinaco Reposado Tequila, why because on occasion I tip everyone in the house, and always tip my server to extreme, money talks bullshit walks. So much for that now to …..admin

    Admin, I’ve never called Admin by his first name like other dumbasses do that don’t know him anymore than I do, I see from the above comment your schooling and educational endeavors are paying off! LMFAO, God Fucking Damn, really? Oh how I miss the old days! When the big dogs kicked ass! And you were worried about keeping us on the net, damn near quit a couple times if I member, right! Avalon the most high princess of the burning lands has pulled you ass off me more than once, she’s the glue that’s made this place work, without her there would be no TBP! Oh how I long for the old times, these Newbies have no idea how ruff this place was or the hard work that’s brought us here!!
    Thank you for spinning your wheels straight into the fucking ground with zero hope of forward motion, God Damn that’s true dedication rarely seen today! Most people quit beating a dead horse once the stench sets in, not you, it’s forward to victory, educating people like AnarchoPagan. It’s working, Flash finally caught a vision today, outfuckingstanding!

    1. Sensetti

      Why do I have a feeling your comments will be getting more entertaining as the night goes on? Avalon loves her margaritas too.

  69. Your elaborations on “Fourth Turning” are top notch, insightful, enjoyable reading. Ever thought of putting them together in a book?

  70. Sounds like Sensetti buys friends. Nice. Me, I get a dog. They never demand to be tipped. Just a bowl of kibbles will keep them happy, and they will love you for life.

  71. The greatest distraction, deception, division tactic is war. Certainly for those in charge war is very lucrative and beneficial, on all accounts, for all their agendas, and from all angles.

    But on the Internet blogs of today, the attention is more on the sign posts which might reveal which SHTF prediction is more on track. Beyond the blogs, I see war increasing. Does it really matter which SHTF prediction comes to pass? Isn’t a SHTF situation a very personal and local thing? Didn’t the SHTF already in Syria? Can the middle class get off the grid fast enough? Can they avoid the attacks from many sides as they try and maintain some semblance of prosperity and freedom? Freedom only works as a verb and the middle class is a very short running experiment in light of all modern history. The current modern world we live in today is a very new thing itself, having been mostly formed over the last half century only. Some soon to arrive collapse as part of, or not as part of the 4th turning, either way, is unlikely to turn over the apple cart enough to really change the existing pecking order.

    On top of the pecking order, at least here in the material world today, those in charge of the various pieces will continue to use the three “D”s. Stop using their money and cut them out of the picture is a simple solution which is only short of impossible to implement. So war will continue to be a big part of their tool mix and even WWIII may need to be trotted out. Can the destruction of the middle class be avoided, or will they become something a bit different? When will the workers of the world accept war as the solution? After all, a war economy is better than no economy. Throughout all of history, war has been a major factor. If you lump in large scale ‘police action’ events and global crime syndicate activities then most of history has taken direction from the outcomes of an age old struggle between violence and love. Will today’s modern world be an exception?

    Maybe we’ve been looking at the wrong sign posts. Maybe who becomes the next leader of the free world doesn’t even matter now. The framing of all debates and all topics is quite controlled now. Most believe now that the ends justify the means. Everyone is now looking for someone they can trust. They’re looking for a doctor, a financial advisor, a world leader which they can trust who will solve their problems and the worlds. The so called free, middle class, working people today believe they can find trust in their fellow man, it’s just a matter of who – maybe that’s the sign post we should be most concerned about?

  72. ..must be the past habanero level butt burn being refocused by the likker wisdom that’s got Sensetti’s philosophical juices flowing..I don’t mind though. He”l somber up in the morning and be the old gullible albeit lovable Republican dupe he always was..May God bless him in that he can’t find his keys.

  73. BTW, Sensetti, I gave you a thumbs up .Thanks for noticing I’ve awoken…just to think I almost voted for George Bush makes me shudder.

  74. AP- When in history have we not been taken to the cleaners? TPTB’s motto is “Never Let Them See It Coming”. They will bend us over and drive us to Newark and it will all be over but the crying.

    Please don’t worry about TPTB fuknuts not being able to straighten out their messes, they write the script and they could just kill off most of everybody and be done with it or declare a Jubilee and we all dance in the streets, who knows? Mostly we are moving into a new stage with a new script and there will be things of great wonder and entertainment….like the alien invasion. So, stock up on booze and popcorn and I urge you to keep a diary or journal for your grandchildren and their children. We are going to live in the MOST INTERESTING times and as I have posted before the lull between leaves us feeling like we are at the top of the BIG hill on the wild roller coaster ride.

  75. Administrator says:


    Why do I have a feeling your comments will be getting more entertaining as the night goes on? Avalon loves her margaritas too.

    No, my girl friend shut me down for the night. “Have you been drinking” absolutely not baby, you know I’ve got a couple deals cooking, I’ve been on the computer working all day! “You smell like beer” no baby… Well… maybe I did have ONE at lunch! You old timers have seen her pic, she makes Donald Trumps women look like crack whores. Why she hangs with me is a mystery.

  76. Flash you have been a Republican since Abe turned the niggers loose! Don’t you even try to convince the newbies you did not campaign for George Bush! Acting all neutral and shit, fuck me dead.

  77. Admin posed a question – could the Grey Champion be a general? Many of you are familiar with Colim Powell’s contest for his staff officers back a quarter-century ago, where they competed to produce the best paper. One winner was titled, “Origins of the Military Coup of 2012.” Make it 2017 after Trump gets in and cannot work with Congress, or if Sanders gets in and gets serious about scaling back military commitments & spending, or if one of the usual suspects gets in and cannot handle the fast-moving crisis that engulfs us and the thesis – gridlock and paralysis put America’s existence sufficiently at risk to warrant a coup – look prophetic. Rome was saved by her ‘Barracks Emperors’ in the Third Century and one could argue that we have so centralized power that we have a de facto ‘Presidential Republic’ already, making seizure of one office much more likely to lead to autocracy than when we had a strong system of checks and balances, etc.

    However, we might still be surprised by a politico seeing the light and stepping up; FDR’s nickname before his Presidency as, ‘The Feather Duster,’ because he was seen as a lightweight who stirred things up every time he discovered a new ’cause,’ but who never actually accomplished much. Crises can amke heroes out of the most unlikely material.

    Link to paper:

  78. Re: Sensetti @ 12:46 p.m.

    Early on, Nick and I determined that “hedging” our stores of metals and ammo with a few precious liquids that could be purchased on sale at the Class VI store on the military base with a discount for purchase by the case was a good idea. Carrying them across the Oklahoma/Missouri State line was somewhat worrisome for a few years, but once in place, they are as precious as gold.

    I’m not gonna argue with you old timers here on TBP… I am far too new here to understand the game you all have studied. However, if you think we are not prepared for what is coming?

    Our neighbors are happy to see us here. And that is all we could ever hope for.

  79. Maggie #1 who the hell is nick? Is he going to be a problem should our relationship progress? According to my world ammo is the absolute very best store of wealth, unless you’re like a few that post here and you’re wealthy, Gold is a fools game but I have a little, junk silver is cool I have some . Me…. My ability to move to a high mountain retreat with my horse’s is my greatest asset. Maggie are you beyond child bearing years?

  80. Bea L have you not been paying attention? Flash is so God Damn old he can’t remember who he is or what he represented in days gone by. Hell yes he’s a Donald Trump fan, as he was was George Bush, Donald Rumsfeld, and dangerous Dick Cheney fan. Flash blows in the wind with no sure direction. He attacks Sensetti saying he’s not a son of the South ignoring the fact all his Grandfather’s are buried in Confederate Soil. And Sensetti was born and will most likely die on ground claimed by sons of the Confederate States. I live and die the Southern way of life, best damn thing I’ve got going for me. I pray Flash returns to his home of his ancestors.

    Note: To all you newbies Flash is a solid Son of the South, born and fucking raised. He likes to pick on me because my father moved us to Colorado when I was in third grade and it took me 20 plus years to get back home!

  81. A lot of ammo on top a high mountain retreat works in a lot of SHTF scenarios.

    Helicopter gunships, a large scale war and a new police state might be a bit of a problem though. What’s your plan under that kind of SHTF situation?

  82. BL and Sensitti , et al… I support the Trump message not the man…and yes, I was the first on TBP much to the chagrin of the Cuck party faithful and others who will argue with a stump for no obvious purpose, to declare Trump will be the catalyst in deconstructing the Rainbow Republican brand.
    Trump is the middle class finger to Republican establishment. And that is the message.
    Do you see now?

    And for the newbies, going all the way back to the Raging Debate.I was one of the few that bashed the Republican brand for the traitorous warmongering corporatist party they are. I posited on the stupid of those who supported the Bush family of globalist pwnd wax moths and took the first verbal shots at Chris Christie and Elizabeth Warren for being wax moths too.

    Also , I was one of the first to decry Lincoln as savior of the Union. He was not. And, FWIW, I did support Reagan, but he was a a Democrat in transition.we all know how that worked out..Global war on everything..from drugs, to oil , to freedom, all at great increase in national debt. Drug warriors made out OK though.

    So I over the years have entertained the ideologies of both left and right and thus though active study have arrived at the destination of National Libertarianism which defines freedom as the right of association and ownership of self. For more on this see Hans Herman Hoppe.

    So in affect my big L libertarianism has been fire-blasted by reality into what is becoming a bud of what is being called on the netz as National Libertarianism , which described in few words means “get the fuck off my porch” ..yeah I’m old and with such comes maybe not brilliance but the experience of seeing firsthand what works and what doesn’t. I like to think of this knowledge as wisdom. but it can also considered mere commonsense , which we all know isn’t so common anymore.
    On Free Immigration and Forced Integration

    By Hans-Hermann Hoppe

    For the purpose of illustration, let us first assume an anarcho-capitalist society. Though convinced that such a society is the only social order that can be defended as just, I do not want to explain here why this is the case. Instead, I will employ it as a conceptual benchmark, because this will help clear up the fundamental misconception of most contemporary free immigration advocates.

    All land is privately owned, including all streets, rivers, airports, harbors, etc. With respect to some pieces of land, the property title may be unrestricted; that is, the owner is permitted to do with his property whatever he pleases as long as he does not physically damage the property owned by others. With respect to other territories, the property title may be more or less severely restricted. As is currently the case in some housing developments, the owner may be bound by contractual limitations on what he can do with his property (voluntary zoning), which might include residential vs. commercial use, no buildings more than four stories high, no sale or rent to Jews, Germans, Catholics, homosexuals, Haitians, families with or without children, or smokers, for example.

    Clearly, under this scenario there exists no such thing as freedom of immigration. Rather, there exists the freedom of many independent private property owners to admit or exclude others from their own property in accordance with their own unrestricted or restricted property titles. Admission to some territories might be easy, while to others it might be nearly impossible. In any case, however, admission to the property of the admitting person does not imply a “freedom to move around,” unless other property owners consent to such movements. There will be as much immigration or non-immigration, inclusivity or exclusivity, desegregation or segregation, non-discrimination or discrimination based on racial, ethnic, linguistic, religious, cultural or whatever other grounds as individual owners or associations of individual owners allow.

    Note that none of this, not even the most exclusive form of segregationism, has anything to do with a rejection of free trade and the adoption of protectionism. From the fact that one does not want to associate with or live in the neighborhood of Blacks, Turks, Catholics or Hindus, etc., it does not follow that one does not want to trade with them from a distance. To the contrary, it is precisely the absolute voluntariness of human association and separation – the absence of any form of forced integration – that makes peaceful relationships – free trade – between culturally, racially, ethnically, or religiously distinct people possible.

  83. Maybe this will help explain National Libertarianism better than I.

    Libertarian Nationalism Vs. National Libertarianism

    Except for a quibble here and there, they seem to be pretty much the same thing. I (and others) call it Libertarian Nationalism, while Vox Day calls it National Libertarianism. Whatever you call it, it’s essentially a policy of realistic libertarianism, as opposed to the rainbow-unicornian view of the world that too many libertarians have absorbed from their progressive pals.
    One of my favorite people has been going on about how opposing the free movement of people over our border is anti-libertarian. She is dead wrong, but she can justify it by taking libertarian principles to a ridiculous extreme. She is absolutely sincere in this, make no mistake about it, and is simply in the position that so many of us are, of not seeing the forest for the trees. Because libertarianism isn’t a theory of reality. It’s a political philosophy. And a political philosophy stops being useful the minute it begins denying reality in favor of philosophical consistency. And, in this border connection, reality tells us that open borders will change the demographics of the nation in precisely the wrong way for the furtherment of libertarianism. It will change it for the furtherment of liberalism/neoconservatism. And if there is any value to libertarian thinking, surely one of the first things one should do is take steps to preserve it, not drown it in a flood of barbarian hordes.


  84. BTW, I never attacked Sensitti saying he was not a Son of the South..that’s just the likker talking . I did say only a moron would actively supported the Republican party.

    Did the GOP secure the border with control of the White House and Congress? NO.

    Did the GOP balance the budget with control of the White House and Congress? NO.

    Who said “I think we are going to crush [the Tea Party] everywhere.”? Mitch McConnell of the GOP.

    Reagan recapitulated the Founders’ teaching on liberty, equality and consent of the governed in these two eloquent sentences:

    “From time to time we’ve been tempted to believe that society has become too complex to be managed by self-rule, that government by an elite group is superior to government for, by, and of the people. But if no one among us is capable of governing himself, then who among us has the capacity to govern someone else?”

    It is not Donald Trump that makes the political-media establishment look pathetic, but a disdain for self-government and its own lack of integrity, statesmanship and vision.

  85. Ace, from ace of spades hq, quote, “One thing that has people exited about trump is that he is talking about what is in our own interest, rather than talking about what is universally better for a generic group of non denominational people. Nationalism has it’s pitfalls, obviously, but people are fucking sick and tired of being told they cannot take their own side in an argument of tremendous importance.

  86. For many of us, this is a very important point-In fact, for some of us, this is the most important point of all. Without establishing that the people of the united states have a right to make policy for the benefit of we ourselves- what the hell is the point of the rest of it? Talk, by the way, is very cheap for many self declared universalists.” Amen, ace

  87. Trump may be fiddling, but he’s fiddling to his base and most have never heard such attention given to their REAL concerns , so it is pure music to their ears. The immigrant invasion issue will not be put back in the Repukes sound proof party box. It is the #1 national issue , yet the Cuck controlled congress still ignores the ongoing transformation of the demographics of this once Christian nation.

    The evidence is indisputable.The US is being invaded by foreign nationalists both legal and illegal, aided and abetted by congressional representatives of both parties.The question that should be on every American’s mind is WHY?

    Federal Data: U.S. Annually Admits Quarter Of A Million Muslim Migrants

  88. It is my contention that Dr. Ben Carson is the Gray Champion. He is the person who can successfully lead the new paradigm shift which our times are desperately demanding.. He is the deliberative, intelligent, humble man of God who is a uniter. Dr Carson is the soft spoken, serious challenger to the status quo who has the vision to thoroughly reform America and has been methodically articulating plans to accomplish it.

  89. Yes, there is no doubt about it. It is totally clear, global status quo forces fear Dr. Carson’s message much more so than Trump’s or anyone else running.

  90. I have nothing significant to add to this discussion, but I want to register my appreciation of Jim’s work. Damn fine writing.

  91. I went back in time to re-read your 2012 article (and the 234 comments!) as the election that year was taking place between Obummer and Romney.

    Many people didn’t understand the concept of S&H’s “prophet” term. Interesting to read how people commented back then (Colma Rising, RE, Leobeer, ThePessimisticChemist, Eddie, SAH, Novista, etc.).

    Some of the crazies seemed to be on LSD.

    However, the article itself is one of your all-time masterpieces.

  92. Trump likens to some of the late Roman emperors, specifically Julian “The Apostate.” Cocky, capable, a problem solver — he wants to get in there and start fixing things. But he is too late, much too late, and the political barriers of the day will temper the amount of action needed by an enormous magnitude. Julian tried to return the bloated empire to its Roman roots, complete with the old religion and customs, at a time when the military was majority foreign and the barbarians were being paid yearly tribute not to invade. Trump would try to build a wall when there are already 30+ million fast-breeding third worlders living within the borders, living on institutional welfare, and propped up by the willful dupes comprising the “I’m offended!” industry. He will try to slow down the massively entrenched government apparatus via a few tweaks, equivalent to a trying impede the progress of a lumbering tank by placing a few pebbles in its path. He will try to return dignity an aura of authority to the White House, after it has become rainbow coloured illuminated joke. Too late for all. Trump is unfortunately not the Grey Champion. He is, at best, a late season reformer who might stave off the blizzard for a couple more years.

  93. Admin, I have a serious question. Sticking completely with strauss & howe’s game theory, and the grey champion thing. In your mind, what might that champion look like? Where might he emerge from, and what might be his armor, what is his superpower? Are there any individuals that you are watching hopefully (no need to name them, just, do any exist) tough questions, I know, but no tougher than asking a dim who they would like to see nominated. What experience, what skillset, would separate this guy from the one right in front of us? Stucky, feel free, also. Just curious.

    1. starfcker

      The Grey Champion doesn’t have super power. All of the previous ones mentioned in this article were terribly flawed, with Lincoln and FDR breaking the law while in power. The reason a Grey Champion arises is due to the mood of the country, the situation, and their own self-confidence. Trump fits the mold. Fiorina, Bush, Carson, and Clinton are all from the Boomer generation. Sanders and Biden are from the Silent generation and don’t appear to fit the mold.

      Maybe it’s someone from the military. The best chance for your boy Trump will be if the economy and stock market tank over the next 12 months. The anger would build and the people would more likely turn to a perceived outsider who acts confident and sure of himself.

  94. Exactly. Trump isn’t saying the economy will tank, just that he’ll revitalize America. All well and good and desperately needed, but if he’s elected and then things go south, it becomes a different situation entirely. The best thing that could happen for Trump is a crash prior to his “arrival.”

    What is frustrating is that no candidate is discussing the instability in the markets or the economy, nor the unsustainable process of propping them up. Choices will have to be made, ones that are going to require some real pain.

    Why? Because the public doesn’t want to hear it. They want “simple answers and easy solutions,” which is what all politicians understand and therefor promise. Rinse and repeat ad nauseum until that which can’t be sustained any longer, isn’t.

  95. What about James Webb as the grey prophet (I know, I know, he’s a Democrat). He is mentioned by Strauss/Howe on page 286 of The 4th Turning as a possibility. Of course he’s been hugely marginalized but I like some things about him (as a Virginia native for one, since I am, too). That’s not an endorsement, just bringing his name into the picture.

  96. Rise Up, I have been pondering Webb for some time. yes, he faded into the Dem woodwork on many issues while in Congress, but neither Lincoln nor FDR set the world on fire before their rendezvous with destiny. They had an ability to overcome personal adversity, as well as an ability to communicate far above that of the normal politico. Webb’s novels and writings on policy issues are evidence of his abilities as a communicator, and he is a very confident individual with a sense of his own destiny. He is also a lifelong opponent of the Woodstock types and would be the antithesis of Hilary or Sanders. In spite of where he is now, I still think he has a chance. Trump is energizing a large part of our population along populist lines; Webb is as well-positioned as any to attract their votes, if the timing – Trump and Hillary flame out at the same time, a crisis emerges (say, a stock crash or terrorist incident on our soil) and Biden is the best the Dems can do, post-HRC, as an establishment stop-gap. If Jeb or another moderate starts pulling ahead of the post-Trump pack, a Webb candidacy would have a chance. It’d be only a chance, but it would be there, if he could take advantage of it.

  97. What about a fundamentally new political coalition in the U.S.? It would be the antithesis of ethnic identity politics and social democratic redistribution. It would be a nationalist American coalition uniting different classes and races that are dependent on the U.S. economy, not global markets.

  98. Excellent article. Can’t wait for the next instalment. Many interesting speculations in the comments. Interesting times. Get ready.

  99. I am a believer in 4ts. I have been reading you site for many years. Thank you for your insights into our current time. I would like you to consider giving some advice on how to profit in part 3 for a 1946 boomer! I need some cash and have $200,000 to invest long or short during the crisis. Thanks and keep up the good works.


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