It looks like the BLS has run out of lies. Not only were the September numbers an absolute disaster, but the July and August lies had to be admitted. It seems my views on the economy being in recession have been vindicated. I’m not the type to say I told you so, but I TOLD YOU SO!!!!
Payrolls Disaster: Only 142K Jobs Added In September Zero Wage Growth; August Revised Much Lower
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/02/2015 08:36 -0400
And so the “most important payrolls number” at least until the October FOMC meeting when the Fed will once again do nothing because suddenly the US is staring recession in the face, is in the history books, and as previewed earlier today, at 142K it was a total disaster, 60K below the consensus and below the lowest estimate.
Just as bad, the August print was also revised far lower from 173K to 136K. And while it is less followed, the household survey was an unmitigated disaster, with 236,000 jobs lost in September.
Putting it into perspective, in 2015 job growth has averaged 198,000 per month, compared with an average monthly gain of 260,000 in 2014. The recession is almost here.
As noted above, the headline jobs print was below the lowest wall street estimate. In other words 96 out of 96 economisseds did what they do best.
The unemployment rate came in at 5.1% as expected but everyone will be focusing on the disaster headline print.
And worst of all, average hourly wages stayed flat at 0.0%, also below the expected 0.2%. Actually, if one zooms in, the change was not 0.0%, it was negative, while weekly earnings actually declined from $868.46 to $865.61.
Finally, not only were workers paid less, they worked less, as the average hourly weekweek declined from 34.6 hours to 34.5, suggesting an imminent collapse in economic output.
From the report:
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 142,000 in September. Thus far in 2015, job growth has averaged 198,000 per month, compared with an average monthly gain of 260,000 in 2014. In September, job gains occurred in health care and information, while employment in mining continued to decline. (See table B-1.)
Health care added 34,000 jobs in September, in line with the average increase of 38,000 jobs per month over the prior 12 months. Hospitals accounted for 16,000 of the jobs gained in September, and employment in ambulatory health care services continued to trend up (+13,000).
Employment in information increased by 12,000 in September and has increased by 44,000 over the year.
Employment in professional and business services continued to trend up in September (+31,000). Job growth has averaged 45,000 per month thus far in 2015, compared with an average monthly gain of 59,000 in 2014. In September, job gains occurred in computer systems design and related services (+7,000) and in legal services (+5,000).
Retail trade employment trended up in September (+24,000), in line with its average monthly gain over the prior 12 months (+27,000). In September, employment rose in general merchandise stores (+10,000) and automobile dealers (+5,000).
Employment in food services and drinking places continued on an upward trend in September (+21,000). Over the year, this industry has added 349,000 jobs.
Employment in mining continued to decline in September (-10,000), with losses concentrated in support activities for mining (-7,000). Mining employment has declined by 102,000 since reaching a peak in December 2014.
Employment in other major industries, including construction, manufacturing, wholesale trade, transportation and warehousing, financial activities, and government, showed little or no change over the month.
Following all this, the December rate hike odds just tumbled to a record low 32%. It was not immediately clear what the December negative rate odds were as of this writing.
Participation Rate Crashes To October 1977 Level: Americans Not In The Labor Force Soar By 579,000 To Record 94.6 Million
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/02/2015 09:02 -0400
While the September jobs number was an absolute disaster, here is the real punchline: in September, the people not in the labor force soared by a whopping 579,000 to a record 94.6 million, up from the previous record 94.0, even as number of people employed – according to the household survey used to calculate the “5.1%” unemployment rate – tumbled by 236,000 to 148.8 million.
And as a result of this latest surge in people who aren’t working, nor want to work, the participation rate crashed yet again, and sliding from 62.6% to 62.4%, it was the lowest since October 1977.
US Factory Orders Flash Recession Warning – Drop YoY For 10th Month In A Row
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/02/2015 10:04 -0400
For the 10th month in a row, US Factory Orders dropped year-over-year – the longest streak outside of a recession in history. Against expectations of a 1.2% decline MoM, August dropped 1.7% which is the worst MoM drop since Dec 2014, with a 24% drop MoM in defense new orders and capital goods. Most worrying however is the rise in the inventories-to-shipments ratio once again to cycle highs after a hopeful dip lower in July.
by Karl Denninger
Now about the internals —
The unadjusted figures show a loss of 248,000 jobs. What’s worse is that over a million people left the workforce — they gave up. At the same time 229,000 people were added to the workforce. There’s the explanation for the ‘unch’ in the unemployment rate — giving up means you’re not “unemployed” any more!
This report is utterly awful.
What’s even better is that of the so-called “growth” had 34,000 of it in “health care”, with about half of it in hospitals. This with, as I’ve noted, radically outrageous increases in health insurance cost that are just now hitting the economy. That will end well, I’m sure.
The workweek fell by 0.1 hour; it stands at 34.5. Obamacare part-time jobs anyone? Oh yeah, that’s special. Manufacturing hours were down and factory overtime slackeneed.
What I find amusing from the internals is in table A-4; according to that table nobody lost ground based on educational achievement. Uh huh. Sure…… there were no employment:population ratio decreases anywhere in the table?
How did that happen, may I ask, with this weak of a report on an unadjusted basis, when the aggregate number showed a decline? Isn’t it funny when the numbers don’t add up and check with each other? Every once in a while our fabulous government agencies manage to stick something out in the wild without checking their work first to make sure that the internals are plausible given whatever the headlines claim.
I find that highly amusing, and perhaps it’s the real story in this report, validating what I’ve called the people who compile this ditty every month ever since I began presenting it for you: The Bureau of Lies and Scams.
Welcome (back) to the recession that never left but was merely papered over folks.
Looking at the “great recession” and its progression to our current situation.
Toward the end of the Bush administration a rather significant recession developed as the effects of replacing our wealth producing industries with financial manipulating industries as the basis of the economy took effect (this has its roots all the way back to Reagan, so placing partisan blame for it is an effort in futility).
This recession was beginning to stabilize and recover when Obama took office.
Essentially, outside of the financial industries catering to and owned by the Elite, this has not changed under the Obama administration. It has simply held place and is now beginning to deteriorate again as reality catches up to propaganda.
You won’t find this being discussed in any reality based detail in the MSM sources since they are still on the propaganda side of the equation and trying to avoid the facts by either placing blame or explaining them away (or both).
But you will see nothing change, at least not for the better, till “Free Trade” changes in favor of equitable trade and brings back our wealth producing industries to our own shores to start producing new domestic wealth again.
There is no political will to do this. Be ready to deal with what is to come, don’t be naively taken by surprise by it after the fact.
Sorry, Admin, not buying your BS anymore. Not even this story making top billing at Drudge has me fooled.
I am an optimist. There is plenty of work out there in our vibrant economy.
There are plenty of baristas needed to serve coffee and discuss racism with the bureaucrats frequenting Starbucks. In the suburbs, help is needed at TGI Fridays to keep up with brisk Jack Daniel’s sauce demand. In the cities, many overnight shifts at gas stations and convenience stores are available. KFC, Church’s, and Popeye’s are all hiring motivated young go-getters for an exciting fast paced career in siphoning EBT and child support benefits from the population. And on Wall Street, there is a startling lack of strippers and escorts willing to do what they’re told and keep their mouths shut.
Yet we wonder why unemployment stays low as “workers give up.” For shame.
Many of the unemployed are the millenials….living at home in their parents basements. I wonder if they are pondering their “White Privilege ” and how the man has kept them down .
If asking ” Do you want fries with that ” is part of your work routine.I’d say that majoring in French Literature in college wasn’t a good idea .
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-02/they-just-dont-want-job-feds-stunning-explanation-why-946-million-americans-are-out-
@Admin, the Waiters vs Manufacturing jobs is very telling.
They have been touting a “manufacturing renaissance” ever since, what, 2010?
How could we possibly be having a “renaissance” if we have REDUCED associated employment? Even IT working in manufacturing counts as manufacturing, so strictly “technology” job loss doesn’t cut it.
Well, we’ve been asking for six years “how long can they cover this shit up?” Looks like we are finally getting our answers.
Look out below.
There is no recession. It’s just the beginning of the fall vacation period and the pre-winter readiness practice season so when it gets really cold they are used to not being outside. Also in some parts of the country the weather has been very hot and so people are not going outside. All this has impaired economic activity. There…..
I need help.
I’ve lost count.
Is this recession 2.0? Or is this a carry over from recession 1.0?
Personally, it feels like the 08 recession that became the greater recession!
Soon to morph into the greater depression.
Non-Farm Payrolls: There’s Not Enough Lipstick In The World To Pretty Up This Pig
Every good lie has to retain an element of truth. If today’s non-farm payroll report is the best possible lie, how bad is the truth? – Investment Research Dynamics
Well, now we know why they aggressively and blatantly tried to push gold as low as possible this week. Is this the best they got?
I am not going to discuss the actual details of what was reported in today’s NFP (non-farm payroll report). This serves no purpose other than to imbue the numbers that were reported with some sense of legitimacy. The numbers are a fairytale and I’m not in the business of engaging in a debate over the “finer points” of fantasy-derived fiction.
Having said that, and given that the August lie was revised lower by 21%…think about that for a moment: the stock market screamed higher on a number originally reported in September that they decided was incorrect by twenty-one percent…let that sink in for a moment…one has to wonder just how bad the truth is that lies beneath the carefully constructed fiction.
If you take a paint-scraper to the heavy latex paint applied on top of the facade, just how badly damaged is the underlying structure?
Again, without giving any assent to the validity of the number that was reported, the Government is telling us that the percentage of the population that is “participating” in the labor force is at its lowest rate since 1977. That is a staggering statistic because in 1977 this country was largely still a one-income producing household. So how catastrophic is the real number?
Interestingly, after the “number” was reported, the S&P 500 futures embarked on a 40 point reversal from the 10 point gain that the Fed had managed to achieve overnight. A 40 point reversal that was not just a “flash crash” because it took several minutes to transpire. Conversely, gold had been pushed lower by Yellen’s gang and it embarked on a $33 dollar upward reversal.
The reason this is interesting is that if this “miss” by a major “economic” report had occurred 3 months ago, the S&P 500 would have spiked up 30-40 points on the “renewed” indication that the Fed would not raise interest rates at the next meeting. Conversely, gold would have been slaughtered because the only way to smear the lipstick of legitimacy on ZIRP is to make sure gold stays in a dungeon.
Something has changed in the complete character of the market and the Fed’s ability to manipulate it. We saw this a couple weeks ago when the stock market behaved scatologically – and gold shot higher – after the Fed deferred (predictably by me) on hiking Fed funds by even a tiny amount.
The Fed is losing control of a system that is rapidly collapsing from countless skeletons in the closet that have come to life. Too much debt in every nook and cranny of the U.S. system; hidden OTC derivatives bombs with lit fuses; impending emerging market sovereign bankruptcies; declining tax revenues and State/local Governments on the verge of insolvency; a real economy that is in a frenetic downward spiral; the most overvalued stock market in history (when you strip out all the accounting gimmicks piled into what is being reported by S&P 500 America).
Perhaps most frightening is a political system with the wheels coming off. A good friend and colleague of mine – and someone who was actively involved in politics at one time – commented, after Boehner announced that he was quitting the job he was elected and paid well to do, that he couldn’t recall ever seeing so many “insiders” voluntarily leaving the system (Congressmen, Bernanke, high profile hedge fund managers) as we’ve seen the past couple years.
And now guys like Carl Icahn are openly stating that the system is fake and will sooner or later crash. This is the guy who got rich off of exploiting and front-running waves of dumb money piling into the the markets (he was an original beneficiary of Drexel Burnham’s junk bond odyssey).
Something really devastating is coming at us in the system. The insiders see it but we can only see and interpret the smoke signals that are leaking out from the cracks in the Orwellian wall that has been built over the last 40 years which has prevented the herd from seeing the truth.
The best we can hope for now is that the insane neocons running the Department of Defense do not start pushing the wrong buttons as a means of deflecting our attention from a system that is economically, financially, politically and socially collapsing…