It seems the NAR goes to the BLS school of reporting fake numbers. Sales didn’t really plunge by 6.5% in September, once you adjust them in your excel spreadsheet. They soared!!!
Same shit, different day.
So it goes.
It seems the NAR goes to the BLS school of reporting fake numbers. Sales didn’t really plunge by 6.5% in September, once you adjust them in your excel spreadsheet. They soared!!!
Same shit, different day.
So it goes.
The gig is up. We can wallow along for sometime, perhaps, but sooner rather than later the RE market will get HARD, and probably will not recover to anything like what we’ve had these last 30 years.
Just prior to the Great Recession, NAR was reporting booming real estate numbers. I think it was in 2010 that they admitted their Lying numbers.
Is there any agency in the U.S. that doesn’t vomit fraudulent data?
As these are government numbers and government logic…..maybe as people give up looking for a job unemployment numbers go down, so when people give up the dream of a home purchase and can’t afford a home, sales numbers go up?
The NAR is actually a private organization who had to restate five years of sale figures DOWN by 2 million a few years ago. That’s right. They over-reported home sales by 2 million. Just an honest mistake. You can always trust a realtor. Haven’t you seen their commercials? It’s the best time to buy.
My hub’s “refi” is one of those sales!
Apparently, even though taking thousands in fees, the title company does not have a copy of some bullshit FHA form that we HAVE to have (even though the sale had NOTHING to do with the FHA).
So, hub just “bought” our home again. He calls it a refi, I call it Cognitive Dissonance and Stockholm Syndrome at its best.
There were NO legal records of our purchase of this house, NO legal fillings of the debt.
To “save” a few thousand over the life of his loan, the dumass fixed it.
And people wonder WHY I am so frustrated with this man?
We, literally, could have walked away with a house free and clear and done it legally. Instead, he has now GUARANTEED that if things to turn to shit and he loses his business/cashflow that we will lose our home – and the thousands and thousands and thousands we have dumped into it over the past 11 years.
My bro-in-law made the “joke” that since my name isn’t on the house, I have no right to the “asset” if I were to divorce.
I laughed in his face. In Michigan I have dower rights to the home the day I said “I do.” I also have NO obligation, nor credit ding, if the worst happens. I can waltz right out with pristine credit (as if that will matter, but go with what you have) and buy a new home while the Sheriff is auctioning off “his” house.
NOTHING is as it seems. NOTHING.
I’ve been meditating and praying on finding mirth in the horror and trusting that God and Universe have better plans for us all. Really helps when reading lies like the NAR and BLS reports, or my hub and his smarter than the average bear family, mock me and my “chicken little” warnings.
Serenity now.
And bullshit for all.
Amen.
Realtors – they right up there with the ‘Slime of the Earth”
Think about it: They aren’t lawyers, nor lenders, nor engineers, nor inspectors, nor surveyors. Just fucking middle men.
You can tell a Realtor, they have callouses on their knees.
Housing – There’s No Way Out
Submitted by Lee Adler via The Wall Street Examiner,
The Fed has created permanent housing crisis from which there is no escape.
Total US housing starts peaked in 1972. This chart shows actual (not seasonally manipulated) total starts, multifamily starts, and single family starts for each September since then.
I have 3 observations.
The recovery in total starts since 2010 has regained less than the post 1972 average.
Multifamily starts are near the peak levels of the 1978-87 decade, which is to say, nearing “as good as it gets,” and unlikely to be additionally accretive for the US economy.
There is no single family housing market. It has recovered only to 1982 recession levels. Prior to the 2008-2012 housing depression, that was the worst housing market in the US since single family starts reporting began in 1959. The single family housing industry in the US is still in a depression.
This can only leave us to wonder what would happen if mortgage rates were to actually materially rise. You can bet that the Fed is wondering the same thing.
If rates did start rising, the housing industry might be stimulated a little at first as buyers and multifamily developers who were on the fence jump into the market to beat rising rates. But once that reluctant pool of fence sitters is exhausted, there would be no more buyers. The next step would be collapse.
The Fed’s only option would then seem to be more QE. We know that economies develop a greater and greater tolerance that drug over time. Japan and Europe are perfect cases in point. They are the walking dead. By keeping rates at zero the Fed has left itself, and us, no way out.
Hey Admin, exactly what is the difference in population between those two time?
And wasn’t a BIG part of the “housing boom” of the early/mid ’70s directly attached to returning Vietnam veterans and the FHA shelling out loans like candy? Even with incredibly high, by today’s standards, interest rates?
On other “recovery” news, Michigan buried three homeless vets yesterday because their families could not be found/could not afford to bury their dead.
Smell the recovery, it is EVERYWHERE!
TE
The oldest Boomers turned 25 years old in the early 1970s. That was the driving force. I don’t think the government got very involved in housing until the 1990’s.
My two uncles both came out of service in the early/mid 70s, they both got “help” from the VA and FHA to buy homes. My dad and mom bought their (now) home at the height of the recession in ’78, it was financed by FHA as they were “low income.” So the “help” goes way back and is insidious.
Due to my own family history, and my “coming of age” a good 10 years before most people my age, I know the Federales were throwing lots of money around quietly. Wonder how many of the Boomers were backed by government policy/lending?
Anyway, not that it matters a bit to us today. But do LOVE, LOVE, LOVE the continued light shining on the darkness!
Who’s doing the buying is more significant than how many are being sold.
But you rarely find that discussed.
The Chinese are doing the buying.
You had to be blind not to see the housing bubble between 1992 and 2006. Now you’d have to be stupid to not realize that with the new car and student loan bubbles bursting and decreasing employment and pay, increasing medical insurance costs, and a very high potential of an interest rate rise and a dollar collapse, housing purchases are going to decrease for a log time. Of course if you have cash (but not in a bank), you will get lucky.
Log time? Like I love you log time GI.
I have been on Cape Cod for more than two weeks now. I was born and raised here and I have spent most of my adult life here. Very noticeable are all of the many many ‘for sale’ signs EVERY WHERE. With the exception of 2008 – 2010 never before in my life time have I seen so many houses up for sale. And the asking prices are insane ! I just drove down the ‘shore drive’ from P-town to Truro this afternoon. I saw a small string of ‘condos’ right on Cape Cod bay in P-Town for sale for $299,500.00 EACH, and they are about the size of a medium sized box on a bread delivery truck. Un fucking real !
And yesterday I was at a home on Oyster Harbor – a gated island community in Osterville on the Cape. This home was listed as one of the ten most expensive real estate transactions of 2013 @ a sale price of 8.75 million. The owner of this ‘weekend house’ is my age – made me wonder WTF does he do for a living and WTF did I not do or did wrong in my life.
So the short story is – from what I can see here on the Cape the housing market looks poised to CRASH !