FOURTH TURNING POLL

Strauss and Howe pondered four broad outcomes to this Fourth Turning. Two are cataclysmic. One could be terrible. And one results in a new High. Those aren’t great odds. Let’s do a poll of TBPers. Which of the four scenarios do you think will happen, and why? If you have a 5th scenario, please make your case.

 

  1. This Fourth Turning could mark the end of man. It could be an omnicidal Armageddon, destroying everything, leaving nothing. If mankind ever extinguishes itself, this will probably happen when its dominant civilization triggers a Fourth Turning that ends horribly. For this Fourth Turning to put an end to all this would require an extremely unlikely blend of social disaster, human malevolence, technological perfection and bad luck.
  2. The Fourth Turning could mark the end of modernity. The Western saecular rhythm – which began in the mid-fifteenth century with the Renaissance – could come to an abrupt terminus. The seventh modern saeculum would be the last. This too could come from total war, terrible but not final. There could be a complete collapse of science, culture, politics, and society. Such a dire result would probably happen only when a dominant nation (like today’s America) lets a Fourth Turning ekpyrosis engulf the planet. But this outcome is well within the reach of foreseeable technology and malevolence.
  3. The Fourth Turning could spare modernity but mark the end of our nation. It could close the book on the political constitution, popular culture, and moral standing that the word America has come to signify. The nation has endured for three saecula; Rome lasted twelve, the Soviet Union only one. Fourth Turnings are critical thresholds for national survival. Each of the last three American Crises produced moments of extreme danger: In the Revolution, the very birth of the republic hung by a thread in more than one battle. In the Civil War, the union barely survived a four-year slaughter that in its own time was regarded as the most lethal war in history. In World War II, the nation destroyed an enemy of democracy that for a time was winning; had the enemy won, America might have itself been destroyed. In all likelihood, the next Crisis will present the nation with a threat and a consequence on a similar scale.
  4. Or the Fourth Turning could simply mark the end of the Millennial Saeculum. Mankind, modernity, and America would all persevere. Afterward, there would be a new mood, a new High, and a new saeculum. America would be reborn. But, reborn, it would not be the same.


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Backtable
Backtable

3.

hardscrabble farmer

3

Truth be told the people who control the devices that could bring about 1 are, to me, inscrutable. I do not understand their motivations, nor would I underestimate their desire to pull a Samson option should things not go the way they choose.

3 is a best case scenario, 1 the most likely to occur should the 4th Turning turn a blind eye towards these folks- whoever they may be.

destroyerofsolesnikesales
destroyerofsolesnikesales

Well, world leaders are meeting to discuss climate change, and no one invited the sun to the talks. Possibly the largest driving factor for weather and climate. Their penchant for discussing the pretend and ignoring the real tells me option 2 is baked in the cake, but option one in the form of fukushima might steal the show. No leader on deck is capable of an option 4 scenario, nor do I believe our leadership would let the country fracture into pieces as in option 3. They would choose to destroy the nation option 1 style first, and would have done so during the war between the states if the technology existed to do so. For a majority of the population, option 2 is indistinguishable from option 1. So option 2 ftmfw. Or roughly stated, the charlie sheen option. Winning, but has aids. Gonna die.
And for those cognizant of ooparts, ekpyrosis may be the reality. We have made and destroyed ourselves before. But 2 is still my answer.

hardscrabble farmer

“There could be a complete collapse of science, culture, politics, and society.”

Funny, I must have missed this the first time I read through. Since this has already occurred, I guess I should say #2

SpecOpsAlpha
SpecOpsAlpha

A military state with 24/7/365 surveillance will be established, a kinder/gentler form of North Korea. This last will only happen because the United States is a large and heavily armed country. If you give up your weapons (perhaps in exchange for food) then the USA will much more resemble North Korea as it is now.

TC
TC

I think 3 is the most likely, but I don’t think it will happen in our lifetime. One of the things that I’ve struggled with over the last decade of reality discovery is our nation’s capacity for suffering. TPTB have filled us full of drugs (prescription as well as illegal), furnished our homes full of flat screen TVs with a 24×7 endless supply of mind-numbing escapism, provided crumbs of sustenance to the lowest common denominators. We are living in the Matrix. Sure, a small population feels the cognitive dissonance of the happy face mask over the shitty state of affairs, but the vast majority still doesn’t get it and never will. Very few understand just how violently we are all being violated on a daily basis. Fewer still want to understand. I just don’t see anything changing anytime soon, except a slow and steady increase in the bleeding out of our society.

Anonymous
Anonymous

That which is in the prophecies will happen, that which is not in the prophecies will not.

If you want to know what is happening, what is going to happen, study the prophecies and observe how mankind is choosing to fulfill them as they come to final fruition.

bb

# 3

End of our REPUBLIC but doesn’t destroy western civilization . It will be bad enough that the majority of nations will allow some form of world government with strong political figures of whom one will be the anti Christ .This person and political system will be the new world order.

If will probably be a cashless world order.

Jeebus
Jeebus

Anonymous is the Man

comment image

Iska Waran
Iska Waran

As long as it kills all mimes, I say bring it.

Persnickety-at-large
Persnickety-at-large

#3

I think it would be hard to completely annihilate the human race. And we may get another nuclear war as part of the experiment.

However, I also think we might be sending the end of the “modern” political nation-state. It’s not a good system and never was. I think we are going to turn over to some sort of ethnic/belief system alignment groups. Sort of tribes. Neil Stephenson’s book The Diamond Age has this concept and I think it is fairly well developed, and looking more likely by the day.

SpecOpsAlpha
SpecOpsAlpha

Freedom and liberty are historical anachronisms. They will vanish as weapons become smaller and more deadly.

Anonymous
Anonymous

Spec,

It’s not the weapons that count, it’s the people behind them.

Stucky

Scenario #5.

The Seals, Trumpets, and Bowls as described in the book of Revelation pretty much wipe out the entire earth ….. and 1/3 of the universe. The moon survives, but only 1/3 of it. Same with the sun … 1/3 of it goes dark.

Then Jeebus returns on a White Horse to save the day. He rules all the world, what’s left of it, with a rod of iron from Jerusalem — which somehow survived thanks to a large squadron of F-16’s — for 1,000 years.

I immediately log on to TBP — the Internet is still working — and proclaim that what happened is just a big False Flag pile of bullshit. I submit a ten thousand word post on why I am still a Deist. No one responds because you’ve all been killed by either a Seal, Trumpet, or Bowl …. except bb, who tells me I’m going to hell. I start to consider that I may actually be IN hell.

I go to Jerusalem to investigate for myself. Security is very very tight with all them fuckin’ angels, cherubim, and seraphim flying around, now working as TSA agents. I never even catch a glimpse of Jeebus. But, I do find a White Horse. I fuck it, since women are still quite scarce.

Immediately I hear a voice from heaven — “For thy transgressions against my beast, I hereby banish you to the uttermost corner of my Kingdom!” — and, POOF (!!), just like that I find myself back in Scotch Plains, NJ. And it’s true, I am completely alone, except for bb and the Internet.

However, somewhere around the year 850AA (After Armageddon) I find myself completely surrounded by a mass of humanity so thick I hardly even have enough space to move my arms. You see, no one dies during the 1000 years of bliss and happiness. By 850AA each woman has already had 500 children, and each child has 500 children … well, do the fuckin’ math, and you’ll see that Jeebus made some serious miscalculations there. Oops. On the bright side, we were finally warm as the 1/3 of the sun that burned out, well, restarting that bitch never quite worked out.

By December 31st, 999AA there literally wasn’t one square centimeter of land available for even one more human being. Unfortunately, 952 billion women were due to give birth that day. After 777 saeculums, Earth’s final Fourth Turning had arrived.

It wasn’t that big a deal. Things never really are when God is involved. God merely snapped his fingers — kinda like when he just spoke the whole universe into existence – and, POOF (!!), there was a New Heavens and New Earth. Every one that ever lived was in Heaven, even Hitler. And, George Bush. Someone heard God saying to the Pope, “What? You think it’s hard for me to give them a new brain??”

Meanwhile, the Earth was barren of human life. As the new saeculum rolled in, God was seen speaking to Gene Roddenberry, who said, “This time Lord, let’s start by creating the Woman first.”

————

That’s how I see it unfolding.

Backtable
Backtable

When the Great Default occurs, the federal government will contract, and more control will naturally cede to the states.

Rise Up

#2 is possible if there is a cataclysm world-wide, either man-made (nuclear war) or natural disaster such as a huge solar flare(s) that wipes out the world’s electric grid, taking 5-10 years to rebuild. Or maybe some viral contagion like Ebola or influenza.

#4 is unlikely, and ONLY possible if the entire American structure is torn down and restarted from scratch. That would be my hopeful choice, as slim as it is.

One thing is certain–the present political, social, and cultural conditions cannot continue.

card802
card802

#3

Americans are changing America.

People left oppressive taxation and over regulated governments to create America for a purpose, to create a new life for themselves and their families. They dug in and fought hard to create and then keep their new freedoms, none of them thought about asking for free shit but were willing to fight and die.

From Bondage to spiritual faith;
From spiritual faith to great courage;
From courage to liberty;
From liberty to abundance;
From abundance to complacency;
From complacency to apathy;
From apathy to dependence;
From dependence back into bondage.

Strauss and Howe say history is not lineal but an ever expanding spiral, well here we are again.

RiNS

Going with Proposal #5

Well done Stucky!

Anyways I’m going to say #3 because we are pretty much there now. Just need war, wash, repeat.

With the S-400 now in Syria it is only a matter of time before there is some sort of technical difficulty. I’m sure Nato isn’t going to like having their planes especially the F-22 being tracked in skies over that country. Won’t be total tear down. But Black Friday maybe indefinitely postponed .

Oh the humanity!

Ghost

@Iska… Mimes! I want all those people who walk up to you in grocery stores or on the street to ask if you have a few minutes to answer a couple of questions wiped from the face of the earth.

Otherwise, I say #3.

Persnickety
Persnickety

@Stucky:

#6: Götterdämmerung Muss Fliegen!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gwsPLciYPyU

(Iron Sky is a great dark comedy, from a VERY non-US perspective…)

Tommy
Tommy

#2.90

With global currencies and a means and method for killing so many – both of which the world has never seen, operated by the nearly universal delusional sick fucks who only want more and more, they’ll over do it. They look at us the way we look at the residents of the 30 blocks of squalor.

Dutchman
Dutchman

My best bet is #3 We have enough status quo momentum to continue with an extremely watered down version of Constitution ‘lite’. We will continue to spiral down the drain, until the next 4th turning – when the real SHTF.

#4 Would not be possible unless we have some sort of new’revolution’ – like the industrial revolution or the lesser tech revolution. A revolution that would bring true economic growth. Also the burden of all the rotting cites (populated by feral Neegrows): Philly, NYC, Chicago, LA, Detroit, Baltimore, DC, etc would have to be dealt with. I don’t see this happening.

#5 A pandemic or natural disaster that wipes out a significant portion of the population. This would give us the best chance for a reset.

Francis Marion

#3

Back in PA Mike

2.5. I’m looking forward to breaking up the Country based on political ideology.

fear & loathing

i would be very happy if this country broke into many small parts. as a product of orwell/huxley what is occurring is no surprise, just worst than i could ever have imagined. i never recovered from the 60’s and the scars it left, feel lucky that others have serious concerns as well. my attempts to bring attention to our self suicide as a nation have been for nought, check out paris and what they have in store, insanity. on every front western civilization is at and end. #2

BigStupid
BigStupid

‘…moral standing that the word America has come to signify’? Would that be ‘hypocrisy’?

#3 but…

Meet the new boss, same as the old boss. (likely just more open about the use of violence and coercion)

Bob
Bob

Some version of #3 world-wide, followed by a huge rebound with a #4 – type outcome. This is not the end by a long shot, despite the desire of many people to see it during their lifetimes.

ottomatik
ottomatik

#3
Many in the New Mid West (basically west of the Mississippi, east of the Left Coast) already want out, Secession talk has been noted all along the Rockies.
Balkanization of these United States of America seems likely. Potentially giving rise to a ‘New’ United States, Constitutionally based, with less States participating.
The push from the control center will be Global, that in my mind, will be the crux of our ‘American’ Fourth Turning.
Ironically, Washington, created and empowered by the Constitution, will attempt to retire it, for the head seat at a bigger table.

Credit
Credit

5. This Fourth Turning could mark the end of freedom for all mankind, enslaved by a global governing elite turning the dials on everything from economies to managed life spans. Indentured servitude, sex slavery and oppression will rule the next millennium as the societal overlords in-breed and separate as a break away civilization, hoarding all the best technology for themselves.

Phaedrus
Phaedrus

Admin: “The reason I cannot fathom a positive resolution of this Crisis is the deeply entrenched corruption and diseased institutions controlling the levers of society. The system cannot be reformed from within and must crash, with the existing social order replaced.”

Well and accurately said IMO. But as to current trends and outcomes, I choose Door Number … Five.

Kunstler: “It [the status quo] is likely to get the shove it needs from the implosion of the financial system, which is now running on the fumes of dwindling credit. A false capitalism reigns based on false capital — notional wealth where there is really no wealth; value where there is no value. Moments like this in history beat a path straight to currency collapse, and that will open the door to a greater collapse of all our familiar arrangements.”

comment image

Yes, I agree, and the Dollar will consequently fail, meaning debt deflation that is now hidden but occurring will get far worse quickly, because there are trillions in unpayable Dollar debt out there in the world. What does that mean? Well, it means that what you call money, Dollars, go “poof”. They disappear every time a debt is repaid or goes unpaid. That is debt deflation. If that happens in the trillions rather quickly? So you thought that bond or 401(K) you hold is worth something? Well, maybe not if mega-disappearing debt is involved. Then the Big Boyz, the Fed et. al., will panic bigtime and open the QE floodgates. They might even mail checks to Joe Average Six.

And then what? Well, hyperinflation is loosed upon the country and the world, and even those Hundred dollar bills you have stashed away will erode away rather quickly. Zimbabwe. What do you suppose the denizens of the big inner cities will do?

Then it really does all fall apart. At that point, I would choose something between Doors Numbered two and three but, frankly, attempting to forecast specifics is a fools game, especially if the perspective of the forecaster is one seven-billionth of the planet’s humanity.

As of 2015 world population is estimated at 7.3 billion.

comment image

The curve is straight up. Does that continue, flatten out or decline? Or crash? Well, when populations explode in the animal kingdom, they usually crash, doesn’t matter how or why, that’s the mode based on experience. And it also applies to algae blooms. Not a forecast per se, just the way the world works.

DRUD
DRUD

I don’t think 1 is even possible. There are enough people in subs, bunkers, etc that even a full nuclear war would not end in complete extinction of the human race. However, in this case, #2 would be a huge, fast die off followed by a another massive, but much slower one from nuclear winter…in this scenario a mere handful of humans (maybe tens of thousands worldwide) live a dreadful existence for a few generations. However, “Life Will Out.” People have a remarkable will to survive, an incredible ability to adapt, abundant technologies and there are simply a shit-ton of us all over the globe. Of course, as someone (I think it was James) pointed out, for the vast majority of us there is no difference between #1 and #2.

Like most here, I think 3 is the most likely. However, I think there would be a High of sorts to follow this scenario, it would just be much delayed. Again, people have an amazing capacity to adapt. Also, personally, I don’t see this as a significantly worse outcome than #4. The current power structures must be completely torn down–we are WAY past the point of reform. I believe the republic will die, but that is NOT a tragedy (everything that lives must eventually die). The IDEA of America, that of liberty, personal responsibility and minimal government cannot be destroyed until the human race IS eventually extinct. History has shown that liberty always reasserts itself eventually. There is something in the idea that does NOT die.

I see a broken nation (maybe 5 new nations, maybe dozens or even hundreds of small republics), most places will have terrible conditions and therefore be ripe for tyranny—but a few, maybe just a handful, will have real freedom. This is my view of #3, not a #5.

destroyerofsolesnikesales
destroyerofsolesnikesales

How can so many envision an america that breaks apart, yet the power grid remains intact? Once the lights go out, you are in scenario 2. Even if power only went out in the eastern seaboard. And the nation breaking apart? Scenario 2 folks. Scenario 3 is the very lowest likelyhood scenario. Really only a 2 or 4 for us. And 2 could feel like 1 right quick.

DRUD
DRUD

@nikesales – just because the power grid goes down doesn’t mean technology goes away. Even and EMP doesn’t mean that. Sure, it would be devastating, paradigm-changing and millions upon millions would die–but that doesn’t mean we just go back to 18th century life. The knowledge is still there and again, cannot be destroyed, unless everyone able to understand it dies. Not happening.

I DO think there are many massive and devastating power losses in our future. Will the grid (or, more specifically, all three US grids) die and fade out forever? It’s certainly possible, but hard to envision—people like to rebuild things the same way they did it before. Either way, technology doesn’t just die–sure, mass media and the internet would fall to nearly lifeless levels. Even that is hard to imagine.

suzanna

#3…I hope,
altho Nike-guy has a point

Westcoaster
Westcoaster

We’re overdue for #1 and it’s come close to occurring on a couple of occasions. Follow this link for some hair-raising reality:

Nightmare on Nuke Street

BTW Rob in NS: I used to be in the Radio biz and worked for a guy who worked at the very Radio station where the Turkey drop really happened. The station manager really did think Turkeys could fly; he was such an asshole no one told him different and let it happen!

Tom S.
Tom S.

2 for sure. The developed world has gone out way too far on their technological tether, and as that tether gets longer, it becomes thinner and more fragile. Soon it will break. Who knows what event (or combination of events) will pull the trigger, but it is inevitable that it WILL be pulled sooner or later.

My best guess is that someone somewhere is going to create something like a stuxnet writ-large, and then that will be it for most of modern civilization as we know it. If most people knew how far out on a digitally dependent limb they were they would freak. Pretty much everything modern civilization depends on for survival – the infrastructure – is totally dependent on digital controls, scada systems, etc. which will eventually be hacked to the demise of them all. And once they go down, there is basically no way to boot them up again, at least in a survivable time frame for civilization as we know it.

AC
AC

#2 is looking most likely, with #3 a close second option, and #1 is doing pretty well at trying to claw its way to the top. #4 fell into a crevasse along the way and was raped and eaten by muslims.

harry p
harry p

#3, im hoping the US breaks up into oess diverse mini countries with distinct differences, almost like reverting Europe before the EU nonsense.

Gryffyn
Gryffyn

James Lovelock, co-creator of the Gaia Hypothesis, has suggested that warming of the planet might force humans to migrate to polar regions and rainy cool temperate islands for survival, as other places on the Earth become too hot and dry to sustain life. This could happen quickly and violently, but would preferably proceed in an orderly down-sizing of the human population. Worldwide restricted reproduction? Preferably through natural attrition with a proportional genetic mix as currently exists on the Earth. Survival of our species depends on having enough variation in DNA to allow humans to survive in the most inhospitable places. Over-specialization killed off a few species since life arose on Earth. If we are really fully awake and intelligent we will figure out what is coming down the pike and how to survive.

Persnickety
Persnickety

@nikesales: there is no national power grid in the USA. There are three major interconnection grids – east, west, and Texas. Taking out one has little effect on the others. Substantial parts of the US have tenuous to insignificant connections to their nominal grid. Failure of a grid for any length of time would be a catastrophe, but would not end the US.

@DRUD: more recent modeling says “nuclear winter” would not actually happen. Who knows!?!

skinbag
skinbag

TWO (2)

DRUD
DRUD

Persnickety – haven’t heard that, but you are right: no one knows. Models are basically just mathematical guesses when there are so many variables. I look at it from an energy perspective. A good sized volcanic eruption could release say 50 megatons of energy. The total nuclear arsenals of just the US and Russia are about 6000 megatons. The eruption of Mt tambora in 1815 changed the climate of the whole world…there were famines on all continents. Now if it were 300 times more energy?

I always wondered about the source of such studies as you site. There are people–powerful ones—who genuinely believe a nuclear war is winnable. Let’s just say I am not one of them.

SSS

I’ll go with #4. “America would persevere. America would be reborn. But, reborn, it would not be the same.”

I have great faith in the best social and legal contract ever devised in human history, the U.S. Constitution. I plead guilty to being a Pollyanna. Deep down, I bet many of you hope I’m right.

Silverado
Silverado

#3

The first two are too terrible to contemplate. And I don’t have enough…faith in my fellow man for #4. At least until we arrest, prosecute and jail the war monger neocons and do the same thing to the criminal element running the largest banks in America – the banksters AND the criminals at the Fed that make all this mayhem possible. These criminals have absolutely ruined this country, especially since 9/11. And while they’re at it they can chop those mega banks down to a more manageable size after the ones that are prone to failing fail. The public will only bail out jails and prisons where we can keep these criminals locked up and the public safe. Where the pieces left over from a bankruptcy could be purchased and used by a new leaner banking entity maybe not quite so prone to felonious criminal behavior & activities due to more stringent rules and regulations that we as a freedom loving society will insist upon. The louder they yell the more we’ll know we’re on that…right track

Odin's Raven

Certainly 3 and probably 2. It is likely that the distinctively American attitudes will wither away, regardless of social and political arrangements. That is closely related to Modernity, which will also decline as something like rabid Islam replaces it.

IndenturedServant

I’m rooting for #1 but expecting a mix of #2 & #3. Despite technology, people are becoming less intelligent, less able to think and lack any kind of common sense. Every generation is literally dumber than the last. It really is The Great Regression.

robert h siddell jr
robert h siddell jr

I’ll go with Matt 24, Rev etc. Those Americans who voted for the Devil will get what they deserve and if it isn’t what they expected it will be because they closed their brains and hearts to God’s many old and modern prophets and chose the easy route following Social Organizers and perverts; those who stay with Christ will enter Heaven and meet Him.

Bob
Bob

This site, TBP, is solid evidence that the true America still exists. There will be a new version of true America, solid to the core, smaller yet stronger, having cast off the leeches, parasites and vampires that burden our current America. Oh happy day for those who survive to see the new America persevere in a balkanized world!

Chris Webb
Chris Webb

It’s going to be a combination of 3 and 4. With the advent of decentralizing technologies like the internet and bitcoin/blockchain, we are going to witness the end of the nation state and see the arrival of a ‘mesh’ society of smaller, real world societies linked together to the greater online world. The transition is going to be ugly though as the FSA dies off.

P.M.Lawrence

“In the Civil War, the union barely survived a four-year slaughter that in its own time was regarded as the most lethal war in history”.

No, it wasn’t. The Mongol invasions were worse, as were Tamurlaine’s. The Thirty Years War was worse. Just a few years earlier, the Tai Ping Rebellion was worse. It was only the most lethal war in American history until then – and that only because it was just earlier than the War of the Triple Alliance in South America that wiped out half the population of Paraguay and around 90% of the men there.

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