LIES, DAMN LIES, & BLS STATISTICS

34 comments

Posted on 4th March 2016 by Administrator in Economy

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“There are three types of lies — lies, damn lies, and statistics.” ― Benjamin Disraeli

It’s my favorite day of the month. The Bureau of Lies & Scams issues their double seasonally adjusted, massaged to provide a happy ending, birth death adjusted unemployment propaganda, designed to keep the masses in the dark about their own dire financial circumstances. Even though the equally manipulated GDP is at 1% or below, retail sales are plunging, corporate profits plummeted by 15% in the 4th quarter and Challenger & Grey corporate layoff announcements were up 42% in January versus last year, our fraudulent friends at the BLS announced glorious employment figures this morning.

The Establishment data that gets all the headlines blared that 242,000 net new jobs were created in February. Of course, 129,000 fake birth/death jobs were factored into that number. Anyone with a functioning brain (excludes Wall Street economists, CNBC shills, and any government apparatchik) knows that more businesses have been closing than opening for the last four years as Obamacare and government solutions destroy the economy. Rather than adding 129,000 jobs, small businesses likely subtracted 50,000 jobs in February. That would put the true number at about 60,000.

In a shocking coincidence, Trim Tabs, a privately run independent company that monitors actual real time payroll withholding tax info issued a report two days ago which said the number of new jobs created in February was between 55,000 and 85,000, based on actual withholding tax data. If you are employed, payroll taxes are automatically extracted. This data cannot be manipulated by the government propagandists. It reveals the truth. No seasonal adjustments, tweaks or phantom jobs added. It’s pure tax data.

“The U.S. labor market is weaker than the conventional wisdom believes. We estimate based on real-time income tax withholdings that the U.S. economy added between 55,000 to 85,000 jobs in February, down from 175,000 to 205,000 jobs in January. Last month’s growth was the lowest since July 2013.

We cite a range rather than a single figure for our February estimate because the timing of bonus payments impacts withholdings at this time of year and makes our year-over-year analysis more challenging than usual. Part of the sharp deceleration in wage and salary growth in February was likely due to shifts in bonus payments, but the deceleration was too sharp to be explained by bonus-related factors alone.

Our estimate is not an attempt to predict the initial estimate that the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will report on Friday. The BLS data is subject to so many seasonal adjustments and so much statistical manipulation that we have no way to know what the BLS will report.”

The Household Survey is even funnier. It shows that 530,000 jobs were created in February and the unemployment rate of 4.9% sits at eight year lows. A little digging into the numbers provides a couple nuggets.

  • The number of full-time jobs added out of that 530,000 jobs was 65,000
  • The number of part-time jobs added out of that 530,000 jobs was 489,000
  • The number of self-employed jobs added out of the 530,000 jobs was 87,000
  • The number of multiple job holders declined by 165,000

The Obama jobs economic recovery in all its glory. The falsity of the headline numbers is borne out by the fact wages plunged in February. Average weekly earnings crashed from $878.15 to just $872.04, and at -0.7%, this was the biggest monthly drop in the entire series history. It seems government mandated minimum wage increases in January warped the data and February is the payback. The future layoffs from the government mandatory minimum wage increases will arrive shortly.

The reality is that wages have gone up by a measly 2.2% in the last year, with the bulk going to supervisory workers. The average hours worked in a  week DECLINED by 0.2 hours, a sure sign of economic growth. The work week is 0.2 hours lower than last February. The average working stiff is stuck with a part-time, low paying, service job with no benefits. Do you think Trump’s soaring poll numbers have anything to do with this “fantastic” jobs recovery?

So, we have the BLS reporting tremendous job growth over the first two months of 2016, while actual payroll tax data and actual corporate layoff announcements showing little or no growth. Who to believe? Wages are dropping. The number of hours worked is dropping. The number of part-time jobs is soaring. The number of self employed Ebay sellers is going up. Retail sales are terrible. Polls show most people think the economy is on the wrong track. Corporate profits and all economic indicators indicate recession. Establishment politicians are being tarred and feathered. Do you believe the facts or do you believe the government manufactured propaganda, propagated by their corporate MSM mouthpieces, and peddled by the Wall Street criminal bankers?

34 Comments
  1. kokoda says:

    Registered Dem voters believe the gov’t stats.

     

    4th March 2016 at 10:14 am

  2. Anonymous says:

    Obamacare has caused a shit toward part time jobs that don’t fall under it and this has improved the total number of jobs (people working).

    This was predicted before its passage, and that prediction has come true.

    Another benefit of Obamacare.

     

    4th March 2016 at 10:30 am

  3. Administrator says:

    Anon

    You are right. Obamacare has caused a shit.

    Is that why Obama’s approval rating is in the shitter?

    Is that why the majority of people in the country think its on the wrong track?

    You actually think shit part-time service jobs replacing full-time production jobs with benefits is a positive?

    Are you brain dead or a liberal Democrat? I repeat myself.

     

    4th March 2016 at 10:35 am

  4. Anonymous says:

    Admin,

    Apparently yo only under crude sarcasm, more subtle and polite forms escape you.

    But it points out the truth anyway.

     

    4th March 2016 at 10:51 am

  5. kokoda says:

    Anon ….. reading your post, I thought you made a typo, thinking shit was supposed to be shift. I think Admin knew that but couldn’t resist jumping on your shit.

     

    4th March 2016 at 11:11 am

  6. Back in PA Mike says:

    Was waiting for this when I saw that all is well on CNBC this morning.

     

    4th March 2016 at 11:27 am

  7. Administrator says:

    By Karl Denninger

    The internals of this report are a bit of a problem though, despite the headline. All the goods-producing (making things) numbers declined, except for motor vehicles and parts, which were up just a skooch (+2,000) and construction. The job gains were heavily focused on retail trade with the second being in health care.

    In addition the average workweek was down and earnings dropped by 3 cents/hour on average. Now to be fair, last month was a rocket shot on earnings, so this looks like a one-off — provided it doesn’t repeat next month.

    There’s another element to this report — unlike the last few months where the gains were notched among those with less education, this time around gains in labor participation included those with college experience. That’s bad, not good, when wages are falling and the employment is coming in retail trade — none of those jobs actually require degrees.

    So let’s put this in the context of the political season.

    The attacks on Trump that aren’t puerile in character are focused on his trade policies, mostly. Yet those policies would reward returning manufacturing to this country.

    And before you align with Meg Whitman, who was slamming him this morning, let me note for you that China places tariffs or local content requirements on virtually everything that our firms wish to sell there.

    Meg, and others in business, are not calling for the replacement of those government heads and policies; nor will they pull their manufacturing and sourcing from there as a result. Instead, they manufacture there and meet the demands of said government.

    The truth is this folks: If Trump is elected and gets Congress to pass said policies manufacturing will return here to America along with those jobs.

    How do I know this?

    Because these very same executives manufacture and source in China to meet their local content and tariff demands.

     

    4th March 2016 at 11:33 am

  8. Fiatman60 says:

    Free trade is not FREE for the average American. It is “free” for the corporation, by side – stepping import/export tariffs. You the consumer gets a slightly less expensive item, that is poorly made, at the expense of a good paying job. The corporation gets more profit at your expense. That simple.

     

    4th March 2016 at 11:44 am

  9. bb says:

    As Lenin said …The worse the better.. When you begin to understand how these treasonous enemies think then it starts to make sense.

     

    4th March 2016 at 11:48 am

  10. bb says:

    Fiat ,I like the way you make very complex issues simple to understand. Us simpletons need this.Carry on my good Man.

     

    4th March 2016 at 11:52 am

  11. Administrator says:

    Liar in Chief:

    Obama: “Labor market strength makes U.S. economy the envy of the world”

     

    4th March 2016 at 12:42 pm

  12. card802 says:

    Not sure if this is true, from the Daily Pfennig

    Did you know that an accountant, did the math, and if the BLS had used the same “seasonal adjustment” they used a year ago, that the 158,000 jobs created in January would have actually been a loss of jobs totaling 188,000?
    If seasonal adjustments are going to be used, for crying out loud, could we have some consistency, please? Serenity Now!

    Also in there:

    Gold had a good day yesterday.. The price of Gold rose $24 without a takedown in the afternoon! Gold closed at $1,263, yesterday, and is up $11 in early morning trading this morning. Has Gold turned the corner, and soon the $1,200 figure will be a figure that just keeps getting smaller in Gold’s rear view mirror?
    It’s so difficult to call, given the wolf is always at the door here with the price manipulators. But, I’m going to go out on a limb and say, that in my opinion, which could be wrong, that Gold has turned the corner.

    “The Chinese renminbi saw a quite large appreciation at the fixing last night. That marks two days of appreciation heading into the National People’s Congress annual meeting, where it is believed that premier Li will probably drive home the point that the Gov’t will promote stability for the renminbi.

    China has a lot of stuff going on folks, and it’s all coming together, and before we know it, China will have control of the Gold market pricing. Just another step toward “when I ruled the world, by the China”

     

    4th March 2016 at 12:45 pm

  13. Administrator says:

    CcYxu-vW4AAoGGc.jpg

     

    4th March 2016 at 12:56 pm

  14. SpecOpsAlpha says:

    “Did you know that an accountant, did the math, and if the BLS had used the same “seasonal adjustment” they used a year ago, that the 158,000 jobs created in January would have actually been a loss of jobs totaling 188,000?”

    This stuff is straight out of ‘1984’. Good post!

    Didn’t Orwell invent a term for stopping one from doing such thinking called ‘crimestop’?

     

    4th March 2016 at 1:01 pm

  15. Administrator says:

    “He’s taking credit for job creation when 88% of jobs created in Feb. were part-time, & 80% paid minimum wage!” – Peter Schiff

     

    4th March 2016 at 1:04 pm

  16. Administrator says:

    CcuYGV2UcAAjgO8.jpg

     

    4th March 2016 at 1:43 pm

  17. jamesthewanderer says:

    ” If you are employed, payroll taxes are automatically extracted. ”

    Yes and no – I am one of those evil 1099 contractors, and I have to send in quarterly checks. I doubt TrimTabs has any way to know that I exist, or whatever. I also suspect that as more and more people figure out that having payroll taxes withheld actually LESSENS your control over your own finances, more people will opt for this form of employment.

    Too bad – one more set of poor quality numbers will bite the dust. ONLY considering those who have payroll taxes withheld as employed is a poor assumption, and ignores entrepreneurs, black market (talk about a growth industry!), and lots of others.

     

    4th March 2016 at 1:44 pm

  18. Administrator says:

    James

    They are tracking this stuff month to month and year to year. The quarterly payments would be picked up in their data and it would be in the same months every year. There are 150 or so million people employed, so their data would be more accurate than any survey or model. It’s real taxes paid by real people.

     

    4th March 2016 at 1:54 pm

  19. Westcoaster says:

    Where are all the layoffs from the fracking fields? Did I miss something?

     

    4th March 2016 at 2:41 pm

  20. Lysander says:

    @Westcoaster…….Good question. Are the numbers of military personal discharged from their jobs via force reduction counted at all?

     

    4th March 2016 at 3:19 pm

  21. TC says:

    Guys, it’s already well documented there’s a 85+% correlation with market performance leading up to the election and the ability of the incumbent party to retain the white house. I wouldn’t have expected the onslaught to start quite yet, but you know the Fed is going to be monetizing anything and everything they can get their hands on, as well as the FedGov doing as much deficit spending as possible in the next 7 months. You’ve also got to assume the propagandists at the agencies like the BLS are going to be pulling reports and happy face bullshit out of their dewy mystery holes that would make Bernays blush.

     

    4th March 2016 at 4:13 pm

  22. Lord Koos says:

    This has little do to with either Obama or the Democratic party. This is the continuing plan of an elite that cares little for American workers, whom they view as too expensive. It really makes no difference which party is in the white house, for all intents and purposes the outcome for American workers is the same. The leaking of American jobs has been going on for 30 years, through both Republican and Democrat administrations. People need to wake up and realize this isn’t about partisan politics and labels, it’s about the American system needing a complete overhaul.

     

    4th March 2016 at 6:18 pm

  23. wdg says:

    It is no surprise that BLS = BS. Morality and truth have been banished from the land and we are now confronted with endemic lies from politicians and government agencies. Up in the untrue north weak and not so free Diseased Dominion of Canada, we have Junk Stats Canada spewing lies on inflation, the unemployment rate and the GDP. Inflation figures are rigged by Junk Stats Canada at ~1% except for anyone who buys anything when the real inflation rate is 6-8%; the unemployment rate is well over 10%; and GDP has been negative for a decade. At this rate, Justin Trudeau will become known as unJustin Trudeau.

     

    4th March 2016 at 6:50 pm

  24. Rise Up says:

    “Anyone with a functioning brain (excludes Wall Street economists, CNBC shills, and any government apparatchik) knows that more businesses have been closing than opening for the last four years as Obamacare and government solutions destroy the economy. Rather than adding 129,000 jobs, small businesses likely subtracted 50,000 jobs in February. That would put the true number at about 60,000.”
    —————–
    Therein lies much of the problem…hardly anyone HAS a functioning brain! (except us here at TBP).

    And I agree with TC that this data is pumped up to help Hellary and her dumbass drones into thinking the economy is coming up roses.

     

    4th March 2016 at 6:53 pm

  25. KaD says:

    I actually just moved three weeks ago and started a new job Monday. Part time to full time, no benefits. $12 hour. Still thankful to have a job though.

     

    4th March 2016 at 8:11 pm

  26. skinbag says:

    What absolutely dumbfounds me is why anyone, especially those supposedly ‘in the know’ would waste one precious moment reading any of these government produced statisics. It is a given that the numbers are massaged vigorously. Why then does the BLS report, or any other government report Cary any weight at all?

     

    4th March 2016 at 8:39 pm

  27. skinbag says:

    USA ECONOMY THE ENVY OF THE WORLD – What a fucking joke ! Maybe those living in Sudan envy us, for at least most here in the USA can get a glass of water to drink. For Obama to say that anyone who says the economy is bad is peddling fiction, well he and the rest of the 0.01 percents aren’t seeing what is going on ‘under the hood’ in the REAL economy. There has never been any economic recovery since the start of the GREAT RECESSION for most Americans?

    There were few if any high five figure or six figure jobs to replace all those high income jobs lost when sub prime imploded. From the Lehman Brothers jobs lost out to the real estate agents and mortgage brokers, to name only a very few. And today I can say from personal experience that I’m not se9eing any high five figure jobs to replace the income I lost when the Marcellus natural gas fracing industry recently turned into a bust. I’m now outside of Jacksonville Florida staying with my daughter. All I’m seeing for most positions is 8.50 per hour up to about 13 dollar per hour jobs. What the fuck am I gonna do with a job that pays those kind of shit wages? I certainly can’t run a house and pay my meager bills (and of course my health insurance) on that kind of income, no matter how frugally I live, the numbers just don’t work.

    So no mr. President, I won’t be buying a new vehicle any time soon. And I won’t be buying any new furniture or appliances either. So please enlighten mr Obama, with so many of us losing good paying jobs now and so many lost in the previous years where is all of the consumer buying power coming from?

     

    4th March 2016 at 9:05 pm

  28. Mark says:

    Skinbag

    Why? Listen to public (government) radio sometime.

    The media is the biggest enemy of the people. More so then the government, the bankers, the Democrat party.

    The dumbed down people believe this shit for now.

     

    5th March 2016 at 2:27 am

  29. goofyfoot says:

    Our gas dryer took a shit on Thursday and the wife says she’s gonna go buy a new one. A new gas dryer is $500 fiat dollars that we do not have. I’m no repairman but slowly I am becoming one in Ozero’s fictional world. So I research the problem online, then trouble shoot it physically and low and behold the ignitor switch for the gas has burned up. Replacement part was $49 fiat dollars at the appliance store. I just saved $450 fiat dollars. I can work on older cars and tractors, appliances are new to me. So, like Skinbag above, no Ozero, I won’t be buying a new appliance anytime soon either, or one of those new shiny computer controlled automobiles so piss off Barry.

     

    5th March 2016 at 7:18 am

  30. Administrator says:

    Another Phony Jobs Report

    March 4, 2016 | Categories: Announcements | Tags: | Print This Article Print This Article

    Another Phony Jobs Report

    And if true it is damning

    by Paul Craig Roberts

    The monthly payroll jobs reports have become a bad joke.
    No growth in real retail sales, but 55,000 retail trade new jobs in February.
    No growth in real consumer income, but 40,000 more waitresses and bartenders.
    86,000 new jobs in Education, health services, and social assistance. February is a strange
    month to be hiring new teachers. If February brought a quarter million new jobs, how come a
    big hike in social assistance jobs?
    Manufacturing lost 16,000 jobs.

     

    5th March 2016 at 8:11 am

  31. flash says:

    CczmhQ6UkAArhvE.jpg

     

    5th March 2016 at 2:13 pm

  32. Muck About says:

    Harry Dent isn’t a dummy. But then a lot of TBPer’s aren’t dummies either.

    I’ve made a whole lot of off Gold and silver over the past few weeks.. And expect to make a lot a more.

    We’ll see..

    MA

     

    5th March 2016 at 9:12 pm

  33. Marty says:

    An easier way to arrive at the jobs picture is : take the given number each month, this month of 242K, and multiply by Fib numbers .236 & .382= 57K – 92K, pretty damn close to the 55-85000 by TBP.
    Yea Baby!

     

    10th March 2016 at 6:10 am

  34. Homer says:

    goofyfoot–I can also fix anything, but a broken heart and the crack of dawn.

     

    10th March 2016 at 5:36 pm

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