“The inability to predict outliers implies the inability to predict the course of history”
Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable

“I know that history is going to be dominated by an improbable event, I just don’t know what that event will be.” Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable

Nassim Taleb is a prickly arrogant SOB who doesn’t give a crap what intellectuals, academics, and other establishment elitists think about him. He has an Ivy league MBA, but despises everything about the curriculum of Ivy League MBA programs. He has a PhD, but scorns academics and their worship of theories and models. He enjoys poking holes in the storylines of the propaganda spewing corporate media. He glories in ridiculing the predictions of captured “experts” mouthing the talking points of whichever corporate interest is paying them blood money.

I read his brilliant Black Swan book back in 2008. It was a difficult read, but there were so many gems of wisdom throughout the book, it was a powerful tome predicting the financial collapse in real time. He wrote it in 2006. He understands the world doesn’t operate the way Ivy League models say it is supposed to operate. The world is propelled by black swans, not a normal distribution of the world. He was right in 2006 and he’s right now. The paragraph below has been making the rounds in the alternate media this past week. The establishment media would never publicize it, as their job is to protect the crumbling social order.

He sees what the pseudo intellectuals, highly paid pundit monkeys, think tank pay for play sages, and other mouthpieces for the establishment have failed to see. They didn’t see the 2008 black swan coming and they fail to grasp the black swan flying into their midst today. Taleb understands unexpected events of large magnitude and consequence and their dominant role in history. Trump is an extreme outlier who will play a large role in sweeping away the existing establishment. The “experts” foisted upon the masses by the dying legacy media are clueless as to what is really happening.

“The problem with experts is that they do not know what they do not know”
Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable

Trump’s blunt, angry, provocative, anti-establishment message has struck a chord among millions of disaffected Americans who have been ignored, abused, scorned, and shit on by the elitist establishment, banking cabal, corrupt politicians and government apparatchiks. The Deep State establishment has overstepped their bounds. Their ravenous pillaging of the national wealth through outsourcing millions of American jobs, largest mortgage control fraud in history, and outrageous gall in shifting their losing bets onto the backs of hard working Americans is about to bite them in the ass.

With real median household no higher than it was in 1988, the Wall Street criminal banks and their Madison Avenue maggot propaganda machine convinced the masses to add $2.8 trillion of consumer debt since 1988, a 500% increase. Meanwhile GDP has only gone up by 350%. The establishment has stolen the wages of the people while simultaneously enslaving them in chains of debt. TARP, ZIRP, QE, the $800 billion porkulus plan, Obamacare, non-stop social engineering, black lives matter, never ending wars, and now more jobs sacrificed at the altar of TPP, have pushed working class Americans beyond the point of no return. They are finally fighting back.

When you read Taleb’s assessment of our interconnected fragile world written in 2006, you see a mind far more advanced than the phony establishment acolytes appearing on CNN, MSNBC, and Fox on a daily basis:

“Globalization creates interlocking fragility, while reducing volatility and giving the appearance of stability. In other words it creates devastating Black Swans. We have never lived before under the threat of a global collapse. Financial Institutions have been merging into a smaller number of very large banks. Almost all banks are now interrelated. So the financial ecology is swelling into gigantic, incestuous, bureaucratic banks – when one falls, they all fall. The increased concentration among banks seems to have the effect of making financial crisis less likely, but when they happen they are more global in scale and hit us very hard. We have moved from a diversified ecology of small banks, with varied lending policies, to a more homogeneous framework of firms that all resemble one another. True, we now have fewer failures, but when they occur … I shiver at the thought.”― Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable

Not only did Taleb grasp what was about to happen in the immediate future, he foresaw the global black swans which have blown up the Middle East and threaten to blow up the world:

“Dictatorships that do not appear volatile, like, say, Syria or Saudi Arabia, face a larger risk of chaos than, say, Italy, as the latter has been in a state of continual political turmoil since the second war.”Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable

Taleb’s current assessment that votes for Trump and Sanders are actually votes to destroy the establishment is entirely accurate, in my opinion. One year ago, no one on the face of the earth thought either one of these men had any chance of getting even 1% support for president of the United States. Anyone who says otherwise is a liar. Jeb and Hillary were awaiting coronation as the establishment selections who would keep the status quo and continue the warfare/welfare policies of the corporate fascist surveillance state. The establishment and their paid pundits on propaganda TV were fat, content, smug and happy.

Trump was considered an oddball billionaire reality TV star self promoter. An impartial assessment would say he was an intelligent man, brilliant marketer of himself and his brand, with a spotty record in the casino business, but generally a successful real estate mogul, with no strong political ties. There was absolutely no forewarning of a dynamic popular uprising anti-establishment presidential campaign on the horizon. Sanders has been a black sheep socialist in Congress for the last 25 years. He was the Ron Paul of the left, ignored, shunned and belittled. None of the talking heads or spokesmodels on the MSM faux news networks thought he could garner a vote, let alone challenge Queen Hillary.

I have to admit I didn’t take Trump’s candidacy seriously at first. I knew the mood of the country was darkening. I knew the economic recovery storyline was a fraud. I knew the average American was struggling to make ends meet. I knew the Wall Street criminal banks and their Federal Reserve puppets had saved themselves and their corporate cronies while throwing senior citizens and savers under the bus. I didn’t know they would rally around Trump’s bombastic anti-illegal immigration, anti-corporate trade deal, anti-establishment message in such large numbers. But they have. I was wrong.

You can only agree or disagree with Trump in a general sense, because there are no real specifics or track record to assess. Slogans and broad pronouncements don’t change how a country is governed. That is beneficial for his candidacy, as emotion and the mood of the country are driving his support. He has capitalized on the anger, disillusionment, and cynicism of the public to propel a campaign that can’t be stopped by the establishment. The linear thinkers in the establishment are dumbfounded by this staggering turn of events. Their protected, isolated, posh lives are being turned upside down. Trump is the large deviation black swan ruining their bell curve lives.

It seems the establishment is the turkey in Taleb’s revision of belief tale:

“Consider a turkey that is fed every day. Every single feeding will firm up the bird’s belief that it is the general rule of life to be fed every day by friendly members of the human race “looking out for its best interests,” as a politician would say. On the afternoon of the Wednesday before Thanksgiving, something unexpected will happen to the turkey. It will incur a revision of belief.” Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable

The plutocracy of criminal Wall Street bankers, pliant central bankers, clueless Ivy League academics, internet media moguls, billionaire corporate chieftains, bought off politicians, and their parasitic toadies live in gated compounds, fly on their luxurious Gulfstream jets, are chauffeured to their exclusive dinner parties, have heavily armed private security services, send their kids to exclusive private schools, have private doctors at their beck and call, and never feel the need to mingle with the lowly plebs. They have secretive meetings on private islands off Georgia to decide what’s best for the easily manipulated masses – control of the banking system in 1913 and stopping Trump today.

As a libertarian, much of what Trump is selling does not appeal to my view of the world and how it should function best. But it doesn’t matter what I think at this point. The country is being catapulted by emotion and a wave of anti-establishment sentiment. The establishment is thrashing about in the death throes of a corrupt multi-decade run. They will resort to violence in order to maintain their power, control, and wealth. But this time it will likely fail. Enough people are choosing an assertive leader to follow to blow this thing sky high.

Specific policies are meaningless. This dynamic is driven by pure emotion. People are voting for the enemy of their enemy. No one knows where this will lead. It will likely lead to more violence, civil chaos, economic turmoil, assassination attempts, and eventually war. One thing is certain, the establishment will fall. Some people think Trump is part of a master plan by the establishment to gain even more power. Anything is possible, but keeping the masses sedated and focused on their iGadgets seems to be a better play for the establishment. Allowing the anger and contempt for the existing social order to be unleashed through Trump’s rhetoric is not coming from the standard establishment playbook.

It seems the people are finally beginning to heed Howard Beale’s plea in the 1974 movie Network:

All I know is that first, you’ve got to get mad.

You’ve gotta say, “I’m a human being, goddammit! My life has value!”

So, I want you to get up now. I want all of you to get up out of your chairs. I want you to get up right now and go to the window, open it, and stick your head out and yell,

“I’m as mad as hell, and I’m not going to take this anymore!!”

We now can plainly see the left wing and neo-con wing of the establishment Party both have the same agenda. These faux believers in free speech are doing their utmost to shut down Trump’s right to free speech. They believe in speech they can control. They believe in pre-approved establishment speech designed to manipulate, mold, and form the opinions of the masses. They are using every dirty trick in their bags to derail Trump. I think they will fail, as the mood of the country grows angrier by the day. Taleb’s assessment about the establishment is accurate. His warning below should also provide some perspective on where we are going. The tens of millions of Americans who have been screwed by the establishment are gathering together behind Trump. Will he lead the country in the right direction? Going it alone against the establishment has failed. It looks like we are going to find out what happens when enough people bind together to destroy the establishment. It’s going to be a wild ride. Prepare yourself and your loved ones.

“Alas, one cannot assert authority by accepting one’s own fallibility. Simply, people need to be blinded by knowledge-we are made to follow leaders who can gather people together because the advantages of being in groups trump the disadvantages of being alone. It has been more profitable for us to bind together in the wrong direction than to be alone in the right one. Those who have followed the assertive idiot rather than the introspective wise person have passed us some of their genes. This is apparent from a social pathology: psychopaths rally followers.”Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable


  1. The Fourth Turning is a Crisis. This is an era in which America’s institutional life is torn down and rebuilt from the ground up—always in response to a perceived threat to the nation’s very survival. Civic authority revives, cultural expression finds a community purpose, and people begin to locate themselves as members of a larger group. In every instance, Fourth Turnings have eventually become new “founding moments” in America’s history, refreshing and redefining the national identity.

    Taleb is right, people are seeking to destroy the establishment. Every Fourth Turning sees an increase in government power over the people, and this time will be no different. We’re presented with choices that favor collectivism and government authoritarianism over individual rights. Mandates and controls over freedom. The illusion of choice is just that — an illusion. Either way it goes, what we knew before will be replaced with a new normal. Everyone will need to adapt to survive.

  2. Sure I want to destroy the establishment, but Trump’s policies are also spot-on:

    No to neocon interventions
    No to stupid belligerence against Russia
    No to TPP & its anti-sovereignty components
    No to taking in Muslim “refugees”
    Yes to drug reimportation (to stop the screwing of American consumers)
    Ending fake medical billing

    If he adopts Denninger’s proposal to 1) get the government out of students loans and 2) allow student loans to be discharged in bankruptcy, Trump would be on board with 90% of Denninger’s ideas. Throw in thorium reactors and it’s up to 95%.

  3. good morning admin.,

    excellent summation you have written, and I think

    it is a very accurate assessment. It is not the venerable

    Mr. Trump that is attracting people…but what he represents.

    Ditto with the frail Mr. Sanders.

    Scanning the “news” (net) finds blatant near-criminal organizing

    against Mr. Trump. I believe the violence at the “protests” has been

    played down. Actually I am parsing my words. One wouldn’t be

    too blatant in calling the actors out…your male contributors will

    do that.

    Meanwhile, you are tops on this Monday morning piece of writing.

  4. Admin- Taleb’s current assessment that votes for Trump and Sanders are actually votes to destroy the establishment is entirely accurate, in my opinion…we are going to find out what happens when enough people bind together to destroy the establishment. It’s going to be a wild ride.

    Excellent analysis of current US political climate …not dark yet for the Establishment but getting there.+ 1000
    This post may cause Bea Levers head to explode. He thinks that the large swell of voters supporting Republican candidate Trump is a show of GOP support and not the establishments demise.

  5. For me the main theme of Tolstoy’s War and Peace was that once historical events are set into motion , the originator of the event loses control and the event though the force of human mass takes on a life of it’s own and therefore out comes cannot be predicted. Trump has set one such event in motion.

    This will fly over the braying ass Mr Ed’s head as well.

    “Napoleon, the man of genius, did this! But to say that he destroyed his army because he wished to, or because he was very stupid, would be as unjust as to say that he had brought his troops to Moscow because he wished to and because he was very clever and a genius”

    On the rug-covered bench where Pierre had seen him in the morning sat Kutuzov, his gray head hanging, his heavy body relaxed. He gave no orders, but only assented to or dissented from what others suggested. […] He listened to the reports that were brought him and gave directions when his subordinates demanded that of him; but when listening to the reports it seemed as if he were not interested in the import of the words spoken, but rather in something else – in the expression of face and tone of voice of those who were reporting. By long years of military experience he knew, and with the wisdom of age understood, that it is impossible for one man to direct hundreds of thousands of others struggling with death, and he knew that the result of a battle is decided not by the orders of a commander in chief, nor the place where the troops are stationed, nor by the number of cannon or of slaughtered men, but by that intangible force called the spirit of the army, and he watched this force and guided it in as far as that was in his power. (

    While this was taking place in Petersburg the French had already passed Smolensk and were drawing nearer and nearer to Moscow. Napoleon’s historian Thiers, like other of his historians, trying to justify his hero says that he was drawn to the walls of Moscow against his will. He is as right as other historians who look for the explanation of historic events in the will of one man; he is as right as the Russian historians who maintain that Napoleon was drawn to Moscow by the skill of the Russian commanders. Here besides the law of retrospection, which regards all the past as a preparation for events that subsequently occur, the law of reciprocity comes in, confusing the whole matter. A good chess player having lost a game is sincerely convinced that his loss resulted from a mistake he made and looks for that mistake in the opening, but forgets that at each stage of the game there were similar mistakes and that none of his moves were perfect. He only notices the mistake to which he pays attention, because his opponent took advantage of it. How much more complex than this is the game of war, which occurs under certain limits of time, and where it is not one will that manipulates lifeless objects, but everything results from innumerable conflicts of various wills! (

    ― Leo Tolstoy, War and Peace

  6. Iska

    Can Donald do any of those things without Congress approving them?

    What are his odds of getting those things through Congress successfully?

    If you say he can do it all by executive order, than you are voting for dictatorship.

  7. “This will fly over the braying ass Mr Ed’s head as well.”

    Oh shit! WTF was that? It just flew right over my fuckin head. Good thing I ducked. Whew! That was close.

    Really, flasher, doing web searches and posting C&P’s of things you wish you’d written (or that you wish you understood) is just so 1990s. Sometimes you conveniently “forget” to enclose your gems in quotation marks and newbies here, like me, mistake your stolen gems for your own work.

    Stealing the “braying ass Mr Ed” line from Aravan is typical of you. If you ever had an original thought, your head would probably bust wide open.

  8. This is a good article and spot on citing Nassim Taleb. Every time the Establishment tries to stop Trump and Sanders they only add to their support. It’s clearly a indicator of massive disgust with the way things are, and the people who put us here. I suspect Trump and Sanders are in the vanguard of a whole flock of black swans coming our way. (Are they black swans if you can see them coming?) I’ll post this on SLL today.

  9. There is a slight possibility of destroying the establishment if a large percentage of the sheep no longer believed anything the MSM spewed and they began to believe the entire political system was rigged and fubared . Next you would need large percentage of population demanding that heads should roll.

    Call me when that happens………..I still see the starry eyed masses of dumbass dipshits waving their political signs and fawning over dipshit candidates. Yawn.

  10. Cuck shills of the GOP say working class whites need to die….to amke room for what?

    National Review hates working class whites

    The beauty of the Trump campaign is that it is unmasking all of the entryists, infiltrators, and cuckservatives who have been leading conservatives astray for decades. Case in point, the white-hating “conservative” Kevin Williamson:

    In a featured article for the prestigious conservative journal entitled “The FatherFuhrer,” Williamson seeks to rebut criticism that he and other conservatives don’t articulate any policies that would appeal to Trump’s blue collar supporters.

    Williamson, a long-time critic of The Donald, essentially agrees that he doesn’t support any policies or rhetoric directly tailored to the working-class — particularly about jobs being taken by outsourcing and immigration — because it would be wrong to do so.

    “It is immoral because it perpetuates a lie: that the white working class that finds itself attracted to Trump has been victimized by outside forces,” the NR roving correspondent writes. “[N]obody did this to them. They failed themselves.”

    He then goes on to make the conclusion that it’s great these communities are dying out because they have a warped morality and are a dead weight on the economy.

    “The truth about these dysfunctional, downscale communities is that they deserve to die. Economically, they are negative assets. Morally, they are indefensible,” the conservative writer says.

    What is conservative about calling working class white communities morally indefensible and deserving of death?

    It’s telling that National Review, which fired everyone from Sobran to Derbyshire, not only didn’t fire Williamson, they published his appalling, anti-white hate.

  11. Supreme Dark Lord [email protected] 3h3 hours ago

    The #Trump2016 is based on the astonishing idea that basing a presidential campaign on the interests of Americans is a viable strategy.

  12. You are free to refute my claims Flash. Fire away.

    Does anyone see anything other than the same pablum puke we have had in the past? Same shit different day.

  13. POP QUIZ

    Who is this person?

    Presidential candidate – Billionaire worth 4.1 Billion

    Known for being intense business man and making epic deals

    Running as the outsider (not part of the establishment) candidate

    Appeals to the average Joe that he he is “one of them and on their side”

    Promises to keep jobs in America

    Has 39% percent lead in the Gallop poles by early in the election year

  14. Pop Quiz…who out of all POTUS candidate do Neocons hate most?

    For bonus points who is the less astute idiot on this thread?
    The neocons who led the George W. Bush administration into Iraq are now touting a fresh crusade to save American democracy — and the Republican Party — from an authoritarian foe: Donald J. Trump.

    Their campaign began with an impassioned essay in The American Interest last month by Eliot A. Cohen, a former Bush State Department official, who depicted Mr. Trump as symptomatic of the broader “moral rot” of America. Then, in an open letter, more than 100 Republican foreign policy mavens, including neocons such as Mr. Cohen and Robert Kagan, as well as more traditional Republican foreign policy figures like the former World Bank president Robert B. Zoellick, announced they were “united in our opposition to a Donald Trump presidency.”

    Now, in a last-ditch effort, leading neocon thinkers have established what they call the National Security Advisory Council to support Senator Marco Rubio. And many are announcing that if push comes to shove, they will support Hillary Clinton over Mr. Trump. Indeed, in the magazine Commentary, the neoconservative historian Max Boot wrote, somewhat hyperbolically, that Mr. Trump is “the No. 1 threat to American security” — bigger than the Islamic State or China.

  15. flash,

    The National Review is an Establishment publication.

    This election cycle seems to be giving the Establishment a chance to show themselves for what they really are, standing out like a beacon in the night for all to see.

  16. Bea,

    You may not realize it but you are one of the ones the Establishment counts on to keep them in power.

    But your side’s numbers are dwindling, and the Establishment is in panic about how to get your side’s defectors back into the ranks that help keep them in power.

  17. “For bonus points who is the less astute idiot on this thread?”

    Wait! I know this one It’s…..flasher. Yeah. I got it.


    “At a private luncheon in Washington, DC, a group of GOP establishment figures gathered to lament the rise of Donald Trump and discuss what can be done to defeat him.

    The luncheon was filmed as part of an episode titled “The Reckoning” in the Showtime documentary series The Circus, which chronicles the 2016 race for the White House. Executive producers Mark Halperin and Mark McKinnon sat down with these establishment figures before Super Tuesday.”

    These asshats are clueless:

    VIN WEBER [Former Congressman]: I talk to people all of the time, as I’m sure everybody around the table does, and they say, “Why don’t you Republicans do something about this guy?” I’m sorry. This is not the Soviet Union. We can’t call a meeting and decide Trump is out.

    RON KAUFMAN [White House Advisor Bush 41]: And we hate that.

    And the dumbest comment was this:

    ROGERS: He’s not articulate. He’s not poised. He’s not informed. All he has going for him is a lot of votes. Why hasn’t any of that hit home? Here we are. Here we are.

    Last time I checked, votes is what wins elections!

  19. It’s all about power, money and CONTROL, control above all else. Power and money flow from control, if you must choose my Guy #1 or my Guy #2, I win either way. If someone else who’s not my guy, or can’t be bought to become my guy, wins, then I lose – and my power and money are in doubt. I can’t have that – I love, depend upon and need my power and money. I’d have to suffer loss of prestige and lifestyle if my power and money went away.

    THIS is the whole fabric of this election – will those who have held power and money for decades be able to hold on to it, or give it up to someone new? Mitch McConnell, Paul Ryan and all the other RINOs are upset that we don’t want them in power any more, and are trying every trick to hang on to it. One way or another ….

  20. Bea,

    Except Trump isn’t dropping out and running away the way Perot did.

    And FWIW, Perot was right in his positions and would probably have won if it wasn’t for that on again off again quitting stuff.

    Now we finally have someone with much the same positions, updated to our time and circumstances, that isn’t backing down and running away under Establishment pressures and coercion’s.

  21. Flash- I never said that the support for Trump was support for the Repugnants. You are making shit up now.

    At the end of the day voting will be futile no matter which candidate you vote for. Again, November can’t come soon enough for me so we can get this dog and pony show over with.

  22. [email protected] says:

    Increasingly I am moving over to the LET IT BURN camp.

    NOT because I truly wish for the destruction of DC (well, okay, mebbe just a little) or the destruction of my country (which is inevitable) or the destruction of the current political/financial system (again, inevitable).

    But because it is like watching an out of control house fire – mebbe a dumpster fire is more accurate. It is totally out of control, beyond the reach of any earthly way to put out the flames. Nothing will be salvaged from the ruins, it will be bulldozed over and something built anew.

    It is what comes AFTER that is so terrifying.

  23. Dipshit Anon says- ” Except Trump isn’t dropping out and running away the way Perot did.”

    It’s only March dipshit, there is a great deal left to unfold in this election.

    And again, for the love of Mike, use your real moniker.

  24. So Ed is now seconding as BL’s buittplug…cute.

    BL, your comprehension skill resides on a 5TH grade level. The revolt agaisnt the establishment was set in motion by Trump, but he no longer controls the outcome.He could drop out today and the mass anti-establishment movement woudl still have legs. This genie ain’t going back in the bottle…got it now?

  25. Bea- This is the first time I have seen a presidential candidate (other than the Paul’s) create a platform that is anti-free trade since Ross Perot.
    So, no, its not the same pablum puke the RNC has put forth for decades.
    Basically, if we shelve the contentious social issues, abortion, gay marriage, and guns, both parties are the same party, and they have failed us miserably.

    Admin- Great read, as this Fourth heats up there will be a bewildering amount of material fueling the blog sphere, pace yourself, if possible, it’s getting wild. Thanks for all of these years of education and investigation. I must say, your Fourth Turning foundation is blossoming, congratulations on a course well chosen.

  26. We shall see Flash, but looks to me I managed to get a grade higher than your gullible ass.

    ***Reality Show Actor……….I believe……….I believe…………..I believe ——- Flash the Believer

  27. Otto- Your key words “since Ross Perot”, you typed it not me……………so yes it is same shit different day.

  28. nothing is going to change until foreigners stop accepting the dollar as a form of currency.

    our population is so fat, clueless, lazy, and government dependent that it doesn’t fucking matter who the president is. there will be no grassroots revolution. the revolution must come from a revolt against American hegemony from the East.

    once the Donald gets into office, just as Obama did, he will get a good look into the deep abyss of the oligarchy. then he will realize, just as Obama did, that he cannot change a god damn thing.

  29. Bea- I am confused about our(the) discourse, in light of this I am assuming via your responses that you believe Trump will falter in the election cycle or cave to the establishment once elected, on his campaign platforms.
    Is this your ‘same pablum puke’?

  30. “So Ed is now seconding”

    Yeah, OK, whatever.

    “He could drop out today and the mass anti-establishment movement woudl still have legs”

    Duh. That’s pointing out the obvious. Keep rooting around. Someday you might just get a slice of the view that adults have of what’s actually happening. As long as you’re closing your eyes and ears and dismissing anything that doesn’t fit your narrow little view, you’re going to be looking the wrong way when it all just runs right over your blind ass.

  31. procrastinator says: once the Donald gets into office, just as Obama did, he will get a good look into the deep abyss of the oligarchy. then he will realize, just as Obama did, that he cannot change a god damn thing.
    First off, let’s not assume at this point the Donald will get into the WH.

    Second, yes, he may not be able to change anything if he DOES get there, but the fuse will have been lit for the mandate which the electorate who voted him in will expect.

    And if those expectations are not met, more than a little chaos will ensue.

  32. Very good article and I believe you are correct. The citizens are tired of getting shit on and are fighting against the establishment. I do not believe it can be fixed via an election but only torn down through the fourth turning. The beast will not die easily. It is kinda fun to watch it for a change though.

  33. Add up ALL the disaffected voters belonging to Trump + Sanders + Cruz and you get one nice explosive package waiting for a fuse…like an economic collapse or an assassination.

    1. Here’s How The Establishment Will Steal The GOP Nomination From Trump

      Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/14/2016 14:01 -0400

      The political establishment in America is terrified.

      Donald Trump gets closer to securing the GOP nomination with each passing month and his rivals on both sides of the aisle are in disbelief.

      Worse – or “better” if you enjoy entertainment – Trump has seemingly given up any attempt to be anything other than… well… than Donald Trump. He recently offered to pay the legal fees of a supporter who punched a protester, shouted almost maniacally about “Bernie guys” at a recent rally, and frankly seems to have gone punchdrunk with his newfound political clout.

      That’s not necessarily a criticism. Heaven knows it’s funny and obviously there’s something highly satisfying about watching the establishment squirm.

      All the same, no one – not even Trump’s staunchest supporters – really know what to expect from a Trump presidency. And virtually no Washington veterans want to find out. In fact, as we reported last week, a group of GOP and tech execs recently made stopping Trump the topic of the American Enterprise Institute’s annual World Forum, a secretive affair held on Sea Island, Georgia.

      And although everyone now jokes about just how unstoppable the Trump “juggernaut” has become, the establishment isn’t called “the establishment,” for nothing. Trump may have proven remarkably adept at whipping certain sectors of the electorate into a veritable frenzy, but he himself will tell you that he’s no politician. In fact, he prides himself on being “outside the political fold,” so to speak.

      He may know quite a few tricks in the boardroom, but he doesn’t know all of the tricks of the political trade, and as Bloomberg outlines below, he could still have the nomination “stolen” from him, if the party pulls out all of the stops.

      Below, find excerpts from “How To Steal A Nomination From Donald Trump”.

      * * *

      The Hunt for Double Agents

      On Saturday morning, while the candidates were scattered across Ohio and Florida, Illinois and Missouri, Cruz’s campaign was back in Iowa trying to wring another victory out of the state that gave him the first win of the primary season. After Iowa Republicans caucused on Feb. 1, diehards who stuck around their precinct got the chance to elect a local delegate to the county convention. It was those 1,681 precinct delegates who attended conventions in each of Iowa’s 99 counties this weekend, where they selected from among themselves the delegates to subsequent conventions at congressional-district and state levels. Cruz’s victory awarded him eight of the state’s 30 delegates—Trump and Rubio each got seven—but his campaign saw that as a beginning rather than an end.

      In many states, primaries and caucuses are just the most public face-off in a multi-step process to select the individual delegates who will choose the party’s nominee. Only a small share of the 2,472 total convention delegates are free to pick the candidate of their choice, regardless of the election’s outcome, on the first ballot, while about three-quarters of them are gradually freed to do so on subsequent votes. That means there is a small pool of so-called unbound delegates who are pure free agents, but a much larger number who can be recruited throughout the spring as double agents—delegates who arrive in Cleveland pledged to Trump, all the while working in cahoots with one of his opponents and confessing their true allegiances once it is safe to do so.

      Reports of the Party Boss’s Death Have Been Greatly Exaggerated

      It has become fashionable to renounce the term “brokered convention” with the argument that, as strategist Stuart Stevens has said, “there aren’t any brokers.” There may no longer be the handful of national leaders able, as their early 20th Century predecessors did, to settle multi-ballot convention battles in smoke-filled hotel suites.

      But delegate selection is still an internal party matter, and in state capitals the Republican establishment holds unusual sway. In those states with a Republican governor, the state party is typically a fiefdom of the executive controlled through a chosen chair.

      During the nominating season, this often means a governor can freely stack an at-large slate with cronies, expecting a rubber-stamp from a subservient party committee. In Iowa, where Governor Terry Branstad in 2014 helped to reclaim the state party after an unexpected takeover from supporters of Ron Paul, Republican officials actively discourage their rank-and-file from even understanding how the state’s 18 at-large delegates will be selected.

      Party bosses stand ready to gut some of Trump’s greatest primary-season successes. He won every one of South Carolina’s 50 delegates, by finishing first statewide and in each congressional district, but Trump is powerless to fill that slate with his own people. “Whoever is chosen for national delegate will have allegiance to the party establishment, and the party establishment is never going to be fond of Donald Trump,” says a South Carolina Republican insider.

      The Art of the Deal

      There is nothing in the RNC’s rules that prohibits delegates from cutting a deal for their votes, and lawyers say it is unlikely that federal anti-corruption laws would apply to convention horse-trading. (It is not clear that even explicitly selling one’s vote for cash would be illegal.)

      Every delegate and alternate is already paying for individual travel costs to get to Cleveland. Most state parties tell delegates to expect to spend $3,000 out of pocket on airfare, hotel and meals, and for some it could prove an unexpected hardship. (Delegates are assigned hotels by state; some could end up paying for the La Quinta Inn, others stuck with a bill from the Ritz-Carlton.) As blogger Chris Ladd has noted, Trump’s slate in Illinois contains “a food service manager from a juvenile detention center, a daycare worker from a Christian School, an unemployed paralegal, a grocery store warehouse manager, one brave advocate for urban chicken farming, a dog breeder, and a guy who runs a bait shop.” Could some of them be tempted to flip their votes if a generous campaign, super-PAC, or individual donor picked up the costs of their week in Cleveland?

      The Disqualifying Round

      If the primary calendar ends without any candidate emerging as its presumptive nominee, all those responsibilities will remain with RNC Chairman Reince Priebus. Thus far, Priebus has been docile toward Trump, who early on made being treated equitably by the national party a precondition for promising not to run as an independent in the general election. But if Trump doesn’t finish with a clear majority of delegates, Priebus will face immense pressure from party officials and donors to undermine him.

      * * *

      And there’s much, more in the full article at Bloomberg including how the party could take the nomination at the convention in a series of procedural maneuvers.

      But perhaps Ted Cruz put it best when he said the following in Maine: “If the Washington deal-makers try to steal the nomination from the people, I think it would be a disaster. It would cause a revolt.”

      It sure would. And make no mistake, Trump would be more than happy to lead it.

  34. “once the Donald gets into office, just as Obama did, he will get a good look into the deep abyss of the oligarchy. then he will realize, just as Obama did, that he cannot change a god damn thing.”

    Getting into the office by itself is changing things.

    Further, the Establishment -and worldwide not just domestically- wouldn’t be offering up increasingly hysterical opposition to him if they didn’t believe he could.

    FWIW, Obama has changed many things, not changes for the better but changes he intended nonetheless.

  35. Otto- Not one of you passed the pop quiz, and Flash did not have a clue. I agree that you are confused about this pablum puke, I don’t know how to make it any clearer.

    TPTB are sure that the sheep will fall for the same game plays over and over for good reason.

  36. You nailed it, Admin. Excellent piece.

    I can’t speak for anyone but my immediate family, but my hubs and I feel like our back is against the wall. We are both intelligent and entrepreneurial and self sufficient, and EVERYTHING about our current system stymies the exercise of those talents.

    TPTB would like to portray the angry mob as stupid right wing rednecks, but in reality, I think the angriest people today are people like me. Pissing off smart, innovative and determined people is not usually a good idea, but that is exactly what they’re doing.

    You can only keep productive people down for so long before their rage breaks out.

    They are trying to destroy the function of the ballot box to vent that rage, and we all know there is only one box left to use if that happens.

  37. Admin,

    No. He can’t do any of that shit without Congress. (other than not starting stupid wars). I expect that a couple of things would apply
    1) congress would be scared shitless if he won, since they wouldn’t even comprehend how it had happened and
    2) he would use every possibility to extort and intimidate them to exert his will on his most important issues. At a minimum, that would mean threats to embarrass the shit out of them and campaign against individual members. He could threaten some executive enforcement actions within their districts just to twist their balls even harder. I think he would be willing to “shut down the government” for a lengthy period – which would be fine with me. And some of the changes are such no-brainers that members would be loathe to try to defend them: fake medical billing, Americans paying 30 X’s what foreigners pay for drugs, etc.

    When have you ever seen a candidate say “Fuck you, Fox News. I’m not showing up for your stupid debate”? I expect him to do shit like that all the time with zero fucks given. we don’t even know if would want a 2nd term. He might want to just build the wall, kill TPP, accomplish a couple other things and then retire to bone his wife.

  38. Rose: +1000
    Those of us running small businesses are really PISSED OFF. We don’t go out as paid protesters, but will seek to save our lively-hood and families. We quietly go about our business and are preparing for when the SHTF.

    What do we want? To be left the FUCK alone. We have no problem working 80+ hours per week, but we want five minutes to enjoy the fruits of our labor and that is getting more and more difficult to do.

    That’s it just get the Leviathan off our backs and let us go to work.

    It’s really that simple.

  39. “We have been silent witnesses of evil deeds; we have been drenched by many storms; we have learnt the arts of equivocation and pretence; experience has made us suspicious of others and kept us from being truthful and open; intolerable conflicts have worn us down and even made us cynical. Are we still of any use? What we shall need is not geniuses, or cynics, or misanthropes, or clever tacticians, but plain, honest, and straightforward men.”

    Dietrich Bonhoeffer

  40. How come Robert Gore gets to use his own picture and the rest of us are stuck with these silly ink blot resembling alien figures? Is he related to Al or something?
    I come down on the BL side of things and can’t imagine how a someone who paid Hillary Clinton to come to his wedding is going to be the guy to blow up the establishment. Trump is not only of the establishment and for the establishment, he funds the establishment pouring money not only into the stinking Clinton coffers, but also the rancid accounts of Harry Reid, and Chuck Schumer, to name a few. That’s just the national level. He is also on the speed dial of such state and city unsavories as Andrew Cuomo, Shelly Silver Alan Hevisi, and Comrade Bill DiBlasio. Trump is winning on immigration because the silk stocking set can’t bring themselves to oppose it, but in the end it won’t make a difference. Trump will build his wall and the next day the Mexicans will tunnel under it if for no other reason than to get their ex-pats back out after 8+ years of economic stagnation north of the border.
    I should stop now before Quinny bans me for being to much of an optimist. I would hate to miss out on those thought provoking ads such as the one of the guy with the glass bulbs glued to his back.

  41. Skinny

    Just click the fucking ads so I can earn a few pennies. Doom doesn’t sell as well as you might think.

  42. Skinny -I come down on the BL side of things and can’t imagine how a someone who paid Hillary Clinton to come to his wedding is going to be the guy to blow up the establishment.

    Don’t feel bad Skinny.I’m sure there a lot of other shit you don’t understand as well.

  43. “All the same, no one – not even Trump’s staunchest supporters – really know what to expect from a Trump presidency.”

    The ones posting here certainly think they know what to expect from a Trump presidency, but Durden’s probably right that they don’t really know.

    ” Could some of them be tempted to flip their votes if a generous campaign, super-PAC, or individual donor picked up the costs of their week in Cleveland?”

    That’s an easy question to answer. Since the rules aren’t clear that this would even be considered shady of course they could.

    “But perhaps Ted Cruz put it best when he said the following in Maine: “If the Washington deal-makers try to steal the nomination from the people, I think it would be a disaster. It would cause a revolt.”

    Well, consider the source. Cruz should know by now about the timid gullibility of the average GOP rank and file voter. That’s just chin music coming from him.

  44. “They are trying to destroy the function of the ballot box to vent that rage, and we all know there is only one box left to use if that happens.”

    I thought there were three boxes: the ballot box, the jury box and the cartridge box. Not disagreeing with your other points, Rose.

  45. Skinny

    Do you really want to have an image of your face on the web once the shit hits the fan?

    .Gov already has facial recognition software, and they will use it to make sure they follow you wherever you go.

    By posting on The Burning Platform, you are sure to be on the “list”, which means that you may want to stop leaving a trail of breadcrumbs that is easy for them to follow.

    Just a thought.

  46. I really dont get this, tRump is not a cure but a Koch view that, once again, co-opts his supporters.

    Look for bigger govt. As always.

  47. I just wanted to thank you for the great article and analysis…as usual. The near future will not be easy and I agree completely with the concluding imperative expressed in the article’s final sentence. I’d suggest also that prayer, and lots of it, is also an imperative at this point in time. We’re going to need people with their heads screwed on straight to get through it. God Bless.

  48. Anyone anywhere close to the beltway in any branch of government, whether appointee or elected, no matter the branch….has been vetted long before they got there. Their compliance with what they are told to DO has been assured in spite of what they are told to SAY for public consumption. The 2 party system is theater-an illusion of control that does not and has not existed for many years. Evidence of this abounds in many places, most notably legislative voting records on both key and minor issues.

    The three letter agencies, through manipulation, monitoring, entrapment or worse, have collected “facts” on everyone in Washington–that can be used to not only destroy lives and reputations……but lead to untimely ends. Not only for the aspirants but the electees as well. Otherwise none of them would be there. This assures compliance.

    Earlier comment about Trump doing everything he proposes either by executive fiat or with the legislature…… probably will not happen because 1) the special interests have already vetted the people in the legislature and 2) if Trump attempts to change what he proposes by executive decree(aside from the questionable legality of doing so) an accident might happen….he will not be allowed to break all of the rice bowls of the special interests who would be adversely affected by his proposals. Too many $$ at stake. I hope I am wrong on all counts but I harbor no illusion of great differences being made by only a presidential change. The old money is too entrenched. Although Trump is a political outsider, he has a long history in high finance and banking circles. Given the mood of the country what better a recruit to create more divisiveness, something TPTB want. What they do NOT want is the voting public unifying across various lines to break their rice bowls. Aside from all of this I think Nassim Taleb absolutely correct in his comments.

    Interesting times

  49. Jim, for me, one of your best, and for different reasons than the ones I usually like about your work. Trump didn’t come out of nowhere. He’s been thinking about this, and hammering home publicly all of these same points for at least five years. He was a regular caller to Michael savage’s radio show back in 2011, and seemed to be considering a run in 2012. I believe he has been regular on Fox and msnbc in the mornings for years as well. What you have identified here, and I’ve watched develop on your site, is a number of smart but politically diverse people thrash through whatever angst and ideological misgivings they have, from any number of angles, and come up with the same conclusion

  50. If your band of monkeys, pretty much covering the spectrum from borderline derangement to the circumspect, can take unlimited information from any number of sources, and arrive at basically the same place, we’re probably going to end up allright. Could be tough for some, but life is tough. And I think the above piece really lays out the facts; we could be heading somewhere new. I always thought he was going to be big, but I never thought through how people would get there, in the ways you describe above. Fascinating stuff. The Republican primaries are probably over in any real sense, today. I hope the larger population works through whatever dogma they operate under, and seizes the moment that seems to have arrived. Big kudos, jim.

  51. One related item. You state no one on the face of the earth thought he might be president. He went to 17% and first place in only a couple of weeks. Seventeen per cent isn’t no one. Everyone on this site seems to get lots of news and opinion from unusual sources. I myself hit all the aggregator sites every day, and I like to follow links. So even with a broad base like that, in more than a decade of internet reading, I never came across a political piece about trump. Yet 17% of Republican voters knew enough about him from somewhere, Savage or whatever, to propel him to the front of the field almost immediately. I don’t know where they were getting information. Was Savage’s audience that big?

    1. starfcker

      I stated one year ago, no one thought that. Please provide the date when he went to 17%. Facts are what I like.

  52. Hi,

    I dont want to interrupt “important” discussions about politics, but maybe some update of AWG denial si needed, since people are freaking out:

    February 2016 has soared past all rivals as the warmest seasonally adjusted month in more than a century of global recordkeeping. NASA’s analysis showed that February ran 1.35°C (2.43°F) above the 1951-1980 global average for the month, as can be seen in the list of monthly anomalies going back to 1880. The previous record was set just last month, as January 2016 came in 1.14°C above the 1951-1980 average for the month. In other words, February has dispensed with this one-month-old record by a full 0.21°C (0.38°F)–an extraordinary margin to beat a monthly world temperature record by.

    I know I know… who cares about climate change? Trump is much more important!



    1. Alex

      The climate is changing, the climate is changing, the climate is changing!!!!

      Fund my research that never ends!!!


  53. Jim, you miss my point. I thought he was going to run, and win in 2012. He didn’t run, but I knew he was out there, I knew what his ideas were, and I knew it would be a massive hit with the voters. Not because I have any special ability to forecast the political future, but simply because I was familiar with his politics and intentions from listening to one particular radio show. I’m not aware of anyplace else he was laying that out. If I hadn’t been in the car at that time of day I might have been as clueless as anyone else. But it was out there. I’ll look up some polling, shouldn’t be hard, from last spring when he started making noise about running. But let’s not bicker. You wrote a nice piece. I like it a lot. I like what’s happening a lot. Learn to take a well earned compliment. That’s great writing.

    1. My statement is correct. Not quite a year ago = 9 months ago. Show me anything from March 2015 indicating Trump as a legitimate contender for president.

      Your thoughts on the matter do not equate to the country.

  54. Let them who have eyes see

    It looks to me as though the two-party system has been an illusion. We actually have four parties:

    The White Gentry Liberal Party, as represented by Bernie Sanders.
    The party of labor unions and NAMs—that’s Non-Asian Minorities—led by Mrs. Clinton.
    The Donorist-Capitalist-Neocon party, which rallied behind Jeb Bush and is now staging a desperate, and surely doomed, rearguard action under Marco Rubio.
    The White Prole Party, under the leadership of Donald Trump.

    I don’t think this four-party configuration is stable long-term. Having committed the U.S.A. to multiculturalism by importing tens of millions of Mexicans, Central Americans, Caribbeans, Asians, Africans, and Muslims, our final destination will be the one arrived at by every other multicultural nation, the situation defined by the late Lee Kuan Yew, who actually ran such a polity for thirty years:
    In multiracial societies, you don’t vote in accordance with your economic interests and social interests, you vote in accordance with race and religion. [ SPIEGEL Interview with Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew: “It’s Stupid to be Afraid”, August 08, 2005]

    don’t think the people still relying on sob stories and worrying about breaking families up don’t understand that the long term alternative to repatriating most of the 60 million post-1965 immigrants is civil war. The USA is heading towards partitition at an increasingly rapid rate, and the more foreigners who are involved in the process, the more vicious the ethnic and religious cleansing is likely to be.

    The dirt is not magic. The USA is not magically exempt from the same rules of power, politics, and war that have stricken nearly every other multiethnic society in history at one time or another. There is absolutely nothing preventing what has happened many times elsewhere from happening on US soil.

    The post-1965 invasion is the largest invasion in all of human history. Think about it. What are the chances that it doesn’t end in violence? What is the scenario that doesn’t involve various ethnic groups scrabbling ruthlessly for power?

    Deporting the illegals is only the first step to avoiding a nightmare, but Kasich is determined to keep making things worse.

  55. There is no animal on earth more dangerous than an unemployed 19 year old male….not even the Controlled Opposition figment of BL and Shithead Ed’s imagination.

    The left behinds are the supermajority of Americans getting creamed by the hollowing out of America.

    Americans who lose more good good jobs, benefits, and status with each passing year. Americans who went deep into debt for college (in order to ascend to a slot in the technorati) but are perpetually underemployed. Americans who work all day but can only make enough to buy food with the money they earn. Americans now adrift in an America so culturally unmoored, it makes the “people of walmart” not only possible, but common.

    The problem for the technorati is that the left behinds are starting to realize they’ve been conned.

    They are starting to find their political voice, and their candidates want big changes. A demand that will only grow more intense as the hollowing out of America continues.

  56. The left will never back down. All human institutions and governments tend toward socialism as they mature, it is observed, and the latest election activities prove there is no compromise being considered by the left, only total victory. The fact the GOP has merged at the highest levels, for all intents and purposes is proof.

    Until conservatives get it through our heads that this is a war, and they are trying to annihilate us while we are trying to be all gentlemanly and polite and fight cleanly, by the rules, we allow the continued growth of the Deep State and it is Socialist.

    No government voluntarily shrinks itself, either. The shrinking HAS to be forced from outside, period. Friends, the direction of this election and its consequences will determine the state of our existence for the next several years. I hope we leave something worth fighting for for our grandkids.

    There are no perfect men. There is no perfect candidate. Therefore, let us bring our best, in-you-face, fighter to bear on the opposition!

  57. Flash- How is this any different than the huge support that was given to Ross Perot as the “fuck you” vote over two decades ago?

    You think because you listen to the opinions here on TBP that everyone is of the same mindset as the SFM. During my day, I talk to a cross section of people who will freely give their thoughts based purely on Fox and CNN . They would be shocked that you think we are voting to destroy the Repugnant Party.

    Last Friday I had a retired minister in the office who proudly stated he was for Hitlery because he is a democrat (yep, Dems would vote for the devil himself to stay true to their party). I also had a thirty year old half Joo who is voting for Clinton because he was raised in a liberal democrat home (I know his parents well.)

    TBP does not reflect what I see with the average idiot voter who has no clue about destroying the establishment. By the way, both of those Dems are well educated upper middle class.

    I could ramble on about my clients but let me assure you Flash, the vast majority of America is just playing the game same as it ever was.

  58. Let me add Flash that I still believe that this will turn out to benefit Hitlery just as I have stated all along. After the election you and the idealists will be standing around with your dick in your hand asking, “what happened?”

  59. Bea, Ross Perot was not a fuck you vote. George Bush wanted NAFTA. The country didn’t. Perot AND Clinton ran against it. Bush, who was at 90% approval the year before, got 36%of the vote. Anti NAFTA got over 60%. Then Clinton sold us out. Trump isn’t a fuck you vote either. America never voted for open borders and free trade. We have a choice this time.

  60. After 24 years of all in globalization, you would think the promised benefits to your fellow citizens would be stacked to the ceiling. They aren’t. 24 years is long enough. Time to grade the project and course correct.

  61. BL. do you think the only site or media on the web that is discussing the Trump the GOP murder weapon is TBP? Pull you head out of your ass before you suffocate.

    Ross Perot ran third party.Why do you think Ron Paul became a Repub? To capture both R and L voters. Trump captures D, I, L And R votes. The GOP is losing control and just because you and a few obtuse farts you know can’t see it is irrelevant.

  62. BL. Like I’ve said a hundred times.You read but do not comprehend. I as far as you can get from an idealist. I’m a realist and the reality is that , regardless what Trump can or will do to set this nation right, he has a chance to win. Thats all.

  63. Bea, is this the side you’re on? Kevin williamson? Stucky, who despises anons of any stripe, had to agree with anon on this one. I love any bet that i can’t lose. If trump fails, we get more of the same. If trump wins, he might sell us out. But he might not. Where is the downside? but, but, but, i wanted to believe soooo badly. I don’t care about belief. Best option, check the box, see how it turns out. No hysteria, no tears, no fears.

  64. Admin, All those on the billionaire list are grandsons David Rockefeller. It’s true . Just ask BL for the link.

  65. Jim, those numbers are stupid big. Benefits stacked to the ceiling alright. I’d be happy with one per cent of any of that.

  66. Flash- The average idiot voter does not read on sites like this !!

    They would not have a clue about any of it. They would vote for Trump (those who lean that way because of jobs and illegals).

    Get someone to show you FB sometime, that would give you a good idea of how the stupid tv watching voter thinks. You may be surprised that some on FB say they would vote for Hitlery if Trump get the Repugnant nomination. It doesn’t get any worse than the average FB idiot but you have to understand that is the real American voter. We are not the majority, we who know that parties are a farce.

  67. Star- I beg to differ with you, people were afraid of the “giant sucking sound of jobs leaving”, today they are pissed because they (jobs) left the country.

    You and Flash are somehow convinced that Trump will be nominated by the Repugnants and I thinks that is doubtful. To stay in the game he would have to go third party.

    Same as it ever was, same as it ever was.

  68. BL, I have been on FB for years now. They are both informed and uniformed voters there. Do you have anything beside bullshit to offer?

  69. I said all you’ve got is bullshit. I never once said Trump will be nominated.I said he has a chance. Your the idiot that denies this reality.First with his campaign will never take off. Then with the controlled opposition nonsense.Now its TPTB won’t let him get the nod.

    Oh and the FB voting bloc will not support Trump. You really are apiece of work. How can one human be so full of such all over the page bullshit?

  70. Bea, depending on how today goes, they may not have a choice. Again, where is the downside, for you personally, or the country, of a Trump presidency? Are you afraid of getting your feewings hurt if he let’s us down? Pick a better option, right now, and you win. BTW, I’m totally bailing on voting for bernie today. Just can’t do it. Westy’s gonna hate me.

  71. “By the way, both of those Dems are well educated upper middle class.”

    Whenever I see the words “well educated” I understand it to mean “fully indoctrinated”.

    Knowledgeable, curious, self taught and wise are words you don’t come across often, but when you see them associated with a specific person, it usually means they escaped being “well educated”.

  72. hf- Third party for Trump because the Repugnants will block him from the nomination.

    Hitlery will be elected the same way her hubby was elected. Third party will send her to the WH.

    Also, that was my point HF, the well educated idiots STILL vote party line. Nothing has changed, nothing will change.

    If the owners thought we could change the system, they would outlaw it and you know that is true.

  73. I switched from Rand Paul to Trump after the first T.V. interview Paul gave after announcing. I knew Rand was toast & Trump could win from day one.

    I’ve been busy, tirelessly working, helping Trump drive his narrative on Social Media. I’ve connected with people intimately involved in the campaign, some outstanding individuals!

    One comment from Admin caught my eye–“Administrator says: “Can Donald do any of those things without Congress approving them” Answer is: yes, thank’s to Obama setting the EO president.

    In the first 100 days Trump will aggressively roll out his agenda like nothing in history. Immigration laws are already on the books all they need is enforcement. Trump has a large number of angry Americans behind him that fill his sails with a favorable wind, he’ll take advantage of that & cover a lot of ground in short order.

    But Trump has not reached the summit yet. The GOP Establishment hovers above relentlessly raining boulders down on him & his supporters!

    I wouldn’t look to Trump as the Black Swan. The Black Swan event will happen in Trumps absence. I’ve been to a couple of his rallies, a few protestors in both, the reaction of the crowd towards these crazy individuals was unexpected on my part. I witnessed little Ole ladies that I know would have taken a bat to them if someone would hold them down. People are super pissed off & that genie is not going back in the bottle. What I can see happening is People literally taking their country back, by force if necessary. In the Kingdom of the disenfranchised ballots have away of turning into bullets!

    Get out & vote today if you’re in one of the five States! Peace??

  74. Should Trump survive the establishments efforts to derail his attempt at becoming President and actually be elected POTUS I question what will the electorate do when continuity of government asserts itself and Trump’s impotence and feet of clay are revealed? The rest of government is safely in the pocket of the plutocrats making this continuity a monolith that has yet to be reckoned with by the people who have yet to realize the true situation. Instead they cling to the delusion of the hopium and changium individual candidates continue to provide and myths of democratic triumph, banding together and marching in the wrong direction as pointed out in this article. Bloody sad but understandable under the auspices of Madison Avenue’s supreme control of perception and psychological marketing prowess, Trump is a relief valve that the power elites cannot shut off with the immense pressure of anger surprisingly manifested but ultimately controllable within the overall structure they command.

  75. Sensetti, great post. Correct, most of what he needs to do is enforce existing law. The rest will be handed to him by q submissive congress. See anybody out there truly able to stand up to the force he is willing to apply? I don’t. Congress is all worker bees. They will get busy at whatever task they are instructed. Patriotism (nationalism) will become their nature.

  76. Thank God Ingvar still made the billionaire list. The billion or so he saved by not fixing his teeth kept him in ninth place. Did anyone notice that Quinny stopped the list at 10? Had he continued he would have have made an appearance at #12 having benefited from his billions in TBP advertising revenue. They don’t let you in the Carlyle unless you’re in the top 20.

    1. Skinny

      I’m willing to sell TBP to Ingvar or Soros for an even $1 billion. Imagine how rich Ingvar would be if he hadn’t gotten me fired from his company.

      I was just a guest of Stockman at the Carlyle. The $9 beers are a little steep for me.

  77. Yojimbo, thanks for your concern but they already know where I live. Fortunately for me, they already know where all of you live and I’m counting on the fact that by the time they are done dealing with that cohort, there will be an absence of energy for dealing with me.

  78. Guest or no, you ain’t getting in without a “b” next to your name. You won’t get less popular with the TBP crowd if you reveal your true net worth. Look what its doing for Trump?

  79. Flash- I don’t FB, I go by the idiots in my family that do.

    Trumpeteers are on FB, sure. What I related is true.

    Bottom line is the great unwashed is still playing the game and most are still voting party line.

  80. Admin @ 6:376am — you’re right ( as always )

    Polls going back to 2015 showing Trump’s popularity / vote:

    You’ll need to scroll down, but you’ll see Trump with numbers like 9% – would consider and 62% – would *never* consider in March of 2015. From multiple polling sources.

    By August / September he was in the range of 25-50% depending on the poll. He didn’t really start pulling ahead until he made the comments about “building the wall” and “rejecting all Muslim refugees.” As if either is actually going to happen.

  81. Bea- “Same as it ever was, same as it ever was.” You constantly bark this line, as if you have read some stone tablets and have the truth. You have a wild ass guess WAG, own it, stop acting as if you are in some special light.
    Yes there may be clues and inuendo, you think JC has solidified your position by claiming International Bankers own Trump, yeah yeah yeah….you don’t know, you guess, assume, and ultimately, believe, but you don’t know.
    Rejoice in what that Trump Campaign has already delivered, look at those low life traitors squirm….

  82. HSF, absolutely hits the mark. I’ve met several well-educated successful people that will admit to not having read a book since their college days. Certainly they are not curious and self-taught.

  83. procrastinator–It’s true Trump once in office can’t change much. But…It is the people behind Trump that will change things. That’s you.

    Kill Bill–Look for bigger government if Trump wins the presidency? Maybe and Maybe not!


    This seems like an appropriate time to do just that.

    Government is an organism. It acts and lives like an organism. Bacterial colonies don’t grow forever. When anything grow exponentially, they meet the limits of growth. Trees don’t grow to the sky. It is a mathematical certainty that ‘limits’ exist in the Universe, in Nature.

    Government is an organism and like any organism it grows, which is why government is constantly growing. It’s survival depends on it growing. That ‘need to grow’ is why you never see government contracting. Contraction is death just like in any organism.

    All organisms grow by taking in nutrients from the their Environment. It’s the same with governments. They take in nutrients in the form of money or your life’s energy and time which allows them to sustain themselves and grow. Most people think of themselves as part of the organism, the government’. But, they are not. Most people are the Environment. That which the organism feeds upon. YOU ARE THE ENVIRONMENT.

    And grow they do, from local governments to state governments to central governments to world government, the march is unstoppable, ever expanding. Or, so it seems.

    Nature has its limits. History makes it abundantly clear that no government lasts forever. But…Governments do re-invent themselves to assure their survival. War breaks government into a myriad of pieces only, like the silvery enemy android in “The Terminator”, to reassemble itself. Look at Japan and Germany after the WWII. Governments are in a state of stress brought on by Environmental decline, a financial Armageddon . Can they re-invent themselves?

    This time it REALLY is different. It’s not the organism dying of old age, or its institutions and processes becoming sclerotic, becoming less and less effective, and trying to birth a new version of itself. This time it’s the Environment that’s dying. It’s you that’s dying. It’s what the government feeds upon that’s dying and it’s happening world wide. It’s a mass die off of the Environment, you.

    Like all organisms, governments will become ruthless in its attempt to survive. They will go to any length, including mass theft, war, and mass genocide. They have a simple mind, eat, grow, and reproduce.

    The Environment is going to deny them their very sustenance. It really is between you or them and people are waking up to that reality. Trump and Bernie are evidence of a changing consciousness.

    Trumps campaign slogan should be, “Vote Trump or vote same ole, same ole.”

  84. Yes, both parties have morphed into one, or did the Republican party get invaded and betrayed by people pretending to be Republicans??

    if you ask me we have been been infiltrated by people pretending to be Republicans but are actually Democraps!

  85. Beano McReano–Yup! The Rhinos are there, the neo-cons are there, the lobbyist representing the Military Industrial corporate complex are there. The trouble is folks, I don’t see you there.

    One big party called the GG party. The ‘Grow Government’ party.

  86. flash,
    I hear what you’re saying about the likely end result of our multi culti rainbow nation

    The only bone I have to pick with the idea is that all demographic studies assume entropy in terms of economic change.

    The third world right now is propped up by the first world. If our farmers were not farming as they are, Africa wouldn’t have a population of 2 billion people. India wouldn’t have a population of 1 billion. Look at Yemen’s population explosion since it started getting US Aid as an excellent example.
    Minority populations have skyrocketed because we’ve been feeding them.

    IF the US (and EU) go into a tailspin, that aid will dry up, and so will our care and feeding of the FSA. At the rate things are going, where Idiocracy is winning out against the productive, you will reach a point at which first world life saving food and medicine are no longer available to the poor. You can already see it in the way Obamacare backdoor rations healthcare by making it so expensive that many cannot afford it. You can see it in single payer nations where people wait so long for care that they die. And that’s during relatively stable times, imagine those systems during a depression worse than the one in the 1930s. Then you’ll be right back where we were in places like Victorian England and Gilded Age urban America, where the educated and productive had decent lives and everyone else’s were nasty, brutish and short.

    The ONLY thing that has propelled liberalism to the pinnacle it now occupies is vast surpluses of food and supplies, enough excess to be able to successfully paper over the utter debacle that liberalism is at heart and keep the lie alive. Chicago, Detroit and Baltimore haven’t burned to the ground yet because there are still enough actual producers producing to fed the beasts. When they have deficits and disasters, they get bailed out. When there isn’t any bail out money left, they will burn.

    It used to be normal to have 6 kids and only raise 2 or so of them to adulthood. Right now, western productivity is allowing all 6 to survive. Remove the economic engine, and you’ll be back to only 2 or 3.

    It is a self correcting mechanism, long term.

  87. Alexander AC says: “February 2016 has soared past all rivals as the warmest seasonally adjusted month in more than a century of global recordkeeping.”
    I should not respond to this bunk, since everyone else wisely managed to ignore you…but in case you’re still reading, remember this:

    NOBODY believes the government statistics anymore because they lied and fudged the data many times previously. They have been exposed. All their credibility is GONE.

    Seems that you are the only one who is “freaking out”.

  88. Is Trump going to be the man on the ‘white horse’? hmmm!

    “Americans, at some point, will call for a man on a white horse to save us, There are a lot of guys out there with brown horses and a bucket of whitewash.’ — Jack Miller

  89. Homer says: Is Trump going to be the man on the ‘white horse’? hmmm!
    Not sure if he’s the man on the white horse, but he could be this 4th Turning’s grey champion.

  90. Great commentary. Taleb is so right. Trump may not be elected this go-round, but here’s the deal, Establishment: The genie is out of the bottle. You’re never going to get it back in.

  91. I went by a church awhile back and a sign on the lawn said, “Jesus Saves”. A couple of day ago, I went by a sign that said, “Jesus Saves” and underneath it said, “At Madison Federal Credit Union”

    Hillary’s going to save us by following in Obama’s footsteps, Obama Care, War, and Political Cronyism.

    Bernie’s going to save us by redistributing other peoples wealth and giving everyone a free lunch.

    Trump’s going to save us by building a wall and bringing jobs back to America.

    And Jesus is going to save us by…that’s the problem. Hillary, Bernie, and Trump are going to save us. Jesus isn’t going to save anybody. I hate to break it to the Evangelicals, but Jesus never was going to save anybody. The idea that all one has to do is ‘believe’ and we will be saved or that Jesus is going to come again and right a wrong and He’ll show them is unrealistic thinking.

    I can’t think of a place in the bible that says that Jesus is the Savior and believe me, there are a lot of versions of the bible out there. That’s Savior with a capital S. Luke 1:47 says God is my Savior. (capital S) The other references are to savior, rescuer not Savior, Rescuer.

    Jesus was the pattern for all. He gave mankind the ‘keys to Heaven’ which were hidden, closed, to mankind by mankind’s selfish withdrawal from the Spiritual. You have to save yourself. You have to do the hard work yourself and it is hard work to return, but now you have a way. Jesus speaking as the Christ, said, “I am the Way and nobody gains the Kingdom of Heaven, but through Me.” Follow Me!

    Jesus isn’t going to save you any more then Hillary, Bernie, or Trump will save you. You have to do the hard work and save yourself. Preppers, seeing the handwriting on the wall are saving themselves.

    You can sit back and wait for someone to save you, but you just might be waiting a very long time.

  92. My favorite parable is the “Prodigal Son”. That was the great hope that Jesus gave to the masses, to mankind. That is the story of God and how mankind left God with his inheritance and squandered it and in remorse and suffering made his way back to his Father’s kingdom to the joy of his Father. And…while a long way off his Father ran to him meeting him half way throwing his robe around him and rejoicing in his return. That’s the story of God, of Man and His relationship to you. It is rich in symbolism. You have to make the first move, tho, God is patiently waiting. Eternity is a long, long time.

  93. xspooker says: I’ve met several well-educated successful people that will admit to not having read a book since their college days.
    One cannot be well-educated if they do not read books. Sure, you can become informed and somewhat more “educated” by keeping up with alternate views and articles posted on the Internet, but reading books is a big part of the process of enlightenment.

  94. Anarchy will wipe the slate of human nature clean and replace it with LUV.
    And demons will fly out of matslingers ass.

    Candy Mountain is just over the next rise. Come Come..Rose Larken is waiting. Bit coin is accepted along with Visa , gold and Pay Pal too.

    Who Is a Threat To You? “Dangerous People to Avoid After the Collapse”
    – MEDICALLY DEPENDENT/DRUG ADDICTS: People who are dependent on medication may become desperate for drugs when prescriptions fall through, and could become unstable, dangerous or a liability to your survival plan. Most wouldn’t mean

    – PANICKED/WEAK MINDED: Emotionally unstable, prone to upset, who can’t keep their cool under pressure and those who are temperamental are difficult to trust, and who put your life in danger

    – GANGS/CRIMINALS/LOOTERS: Then of course there are always going to be violent gangs, looters and outright criminals. It’s pretty obvious what they want, but it may still surprise you how far they are willing to go to get it. Only, some criminals won’t be as easy to spot, and historically they have taken advantage of hard working, prepared and ultimately naive individuals using any and every tactic they can think of. Keep in mind, this includes color-of-law rogue government agents, too; historically the appearance of authority will be used to gain entry, take advantage and catch you off guard. During Hurricane Katrina, some cops were caught on tape looting Wal-Mart… just imagine the type of stuff that wasn’t seen by cameras.

    – WANNA-BE LEADERS: Narcissists, selfish, egotistical, grandiose and those willing to use psychology and tactics to gain advantage of your group and your resources, let you down when a plan needs to come to fruition, or turn tail when the going gets tough. These people are in it for themselves, would create a mutiny if they thought they had the leverage to do so, and will be even more undependable than the easily panicked and the addicted.

    – ALSO BEWARE OF: The above category is closely related to those who are overly macho, those who hold obvious and disproportionate gun fetishes, those prone to uncalled for paranoia, the weaselly and conniving salesman types, and the foregone-conclusion doomsday nihilist who secretly wants to fulfill his entimes fantasy and die in a fight, rather than living to fight another day. There are other variations of these types, but few of them will be all that helpful when reality sets in, regardless of how big they talk as things gear up.

    – PARASITES AND NOSY PEEPERS: Perhaps the most dangerous type of person, at least immediately when the SHTF, is the one who knows about your prepping, your supplies and stocks, and expects to come over to your place and join you without contributing any skills or having prepped in advance. Even worse, if a reward or a position of power is offered, this person is far-too-willing to turn you in and turn you over to a FEMA camp if they can derive any benefit. Though this individual may be a nosy neighbor or family friend during times of normalcy, they are a very dangerous liability for you and your family during times of emergency. Here’s what to do when those types come knocking…

  95. Homer, the big problem I have with my fellow Christians is their ability to disconnect with current political events. The think that when TEOTWAWKI moment arrives they will all be raptured up in the sky to meet Jesus while the sinners stay here on earth and burn.
    There have been millions made off the the Rapture myth by charlatan preachers and book sellers alike.The danger of this unbiblical prophesy is that it frees the Christian from taking personal responsibility for standing unyielding on principle and Christian values. .Afterall when Satan gains majority control over the will of the people , Christians will not be fed to lions again, but be raptured away. Or so they believe.

  96. Rise Up,
    Trump as the Grey Champion? Unlikely, but not impossible. The first few Grey Champions will probably be killed by the Deep State, the Shadow Government, the Elite, the Status Quo, or whatever/whoever. And I’m sorry to have to say that.

  97. Admin,
    I haven’t seen any of your latest Fourth Turning articles.

    I am having a hard time following those articles in your Fourth Turning Library, because they are listed alphabetically, and not by date posted, so they seem all mixed up.

    Thanks for all you do.

  98. flash–Yup! The 18th century Rapture Myth. There’s as much ignorance in Christianity as in the political process. But, like the Muslems that look to get their 72 virgins, Christians look to the Rapture.
    They both might be surprised.

    By the way, why don’t the virgins have a say about it. Oh! Women don’t count in Islam. Their purpose is to be used by men.

    I would be ashamed to be a part of any religion that treated women so badly.

  99. Here’s another one from Trump this morning after the next round of primaries: He said that if he arrives at the convention just a hundred or so delegates short of an outright majority and he is not just given the nomination anyway, that his supporters are likely to riot. Way to instigate your supporters, Donald!

  100. Anyone running for political office who sincerely tries to undermine the corrupt establishment either won’t be elected or if elected will be blocked from achieving their goals. If by miracle they begin to actually achieve any real reforms, they will be either set up for scandal – or end up the victim of a “accident”.

    We desperately need drastic political/financial reforms across the board but they won’t happen because a majority of the public and big money special interests don’t want the reforms because they must protect whatever financial benefits, subsidies, or tax breaks they receive.

    So we will continue on the path of economic decline until various events occur that finally cause collapse.

  101. Excellent article, however, in your admission that you underestimated the velocity of the rise of Trump’s voter following, there still appears to be a partial lack of understanding of what really drove and continues to drive Trump’s voters. Yes there is a factor of emotionality along with other outlying factors. But most of his support comes from voters that are aware of several cold hard deadly facts that are not a play on emotions, but are a logical reaction akin to a situation where you wake up one morning and realize your country has been sold out from underneath you. For me it was a gradual realization. From Obama’s first campaign speeches that were hours of bluster and no substance, to his race baiting stances on police vs. criminal instances and lawless attempts to change America’s constitution through executive actions, blackmail, racial division etc. When this dictator decreed that the Islamic murder of 14 plus American citizens in San Bernardino was an example of “workplace violence” and ,by the way, was a result of climate change (And to top it off Loretta Lynch decides she’s going to prosecute any American citizen that exercise their 1st amendment right to free speech if it offends islam!) I began to wonder what kind of twilight zone we’re living in. Then on December 17, 2015 house resolution 569 was put forth and signed by HOUSE DEMOCRATS. I decided to take a crash course of learning and enlightenment this winter. Folks these are indeed dark days. Things are not what they seem. Our beautiful country that was, is fast becoming no more. What the hell are sanctuary cities? A Philadelphia police chief and his associate (both black) stand up and give a correct account to the press of an islamic terror induced attack on a Philadelphia police officer. Immediately following their account white mayor Jim Kenney who is reminiscent of one of Joseph Stalin’s “useful idiots” reports that the attack had nothing to do with islam. CNN, CNBC, etc. push the liberal agenda. Censored to their, and whatever middle east interests own and back them. College campuses have become liberal America hating “things”. Why the hell wasn’t the conservative wing warning the American public at large what was going down before our very eyes. If you want real information you have to look for it. All I can say is there must have been a lot of people smarter than me that must have been in the know much sooner than me.

  102. after it burned. and the glow (heh) of satisfaction wore off, it would suck. bad. and those who want to survive will embark on a long hard desperate toil, and maybe… maybe… survive.

  103. swell, don’t underestimate jim. I think he gets this completely. If he has soft spots, analysis ain’t one of them.

  104. Swell, I doubt there are great numbers of people smarter than you, it seems to be more of a case of at what point you dig out or stumble upon good information. It’s really hard to find truth that’s not spun for someone’s advantage. The country is figuring this out very quickly. We have an opportunity with Mr.Trump. That doesn’t mean every nimrod gets their personal checklist of petty bullshit taken care of. We’ve got a lot of work ahead. Do your part. Great post.

  105. We have to realize that America is run by people just like Jeb. They are cowardly cuckolds who hide behind PC fakery and run at the first sounds of battle. They want to change the rules of the battle because, being cowardly cucks, they know that Trump (being Alpha) will crush them like the cockroaches they are.
    We just have to realize these puny Jeb like sacks of shit with their tiny penises must be crushed before they establish ‘cuckold world’ (like Obama is trying to do now…see Iran deal for ex)

  106. swell–I was aware of what was happening 45 yrs ago. My uncle in the 40s and 50s, when ever he heard on the radio the words that America was a democracy would shout out, “It’s a Republic not a democracy.”

    swell, you can’t convince people who refuse to believe. I don’t spout out to family and friends anymore.
    The tide of humanity will take you where ever, and you can’t fight it. You can’t live with delusion either. Once you’ve been to the city you can’t go back to the farm, so to speak.

    I will tell you about the power of belief and I have never forgotten that lesson.

    In the 40s, I was about 7 yrs old. In Seattle there was a playground called Collins Field. It had its array of swings, teeter totters, monkey bars, etc. In the center it had a wading pool which was about 1′ to 1 1/2′ deep. This place was a gathering ground for all the neighboring community. Nobody had televisions in those day. We kids entertained ourselves.

    Well, at the end of the day, only me and one other kid who was a little older than me remained in that pool. Everyone else had gone home. He and I were in the middle of the pool where the drain was and he reach down into the murky water and pulled up a quarter and he reached down again and pulled up a dime. I knelt there in disbelief watching him pull up coins. I truly thought that he was playing a trick on me. He must have pulled up 70 to 80 cents from the bottom of that pool. In the 40s to a kid, that was a kings ransom. You could buy candy for 6 months with that. By the way that was silver coins, too. I never pulled up one coin. I didn’t believe it.

    I have thought about that incident all my life. I learned how strong beliefs are in governing behavior. It seems that all the lessons that I have learned in life have come the hard way. I think that lesson was the basis of my questioning everything to the dismay of my parents, teachers, and clergy. Telling the truth always comes at a high price which is why you rarely see it, especially in politics or any established dogma.

    After all, they didn’t crucify Jesus because He was a conformist.

  107. Question your beliefs and especially question the beliefs of others.

    Whether Trump, Hillary, Bernie, Obama, or anyone else. To know what the beliefs of another person are, watch what they do. Everyone and I mean EVERYONE acts consistent with their beliefs. They may lie to you like Hillary does but their actions betray them. Perhaps Trump really believes what he is saying, as opposed to Hillary who’s an out and out liar, and if he should become president reality may modify his beliefs and he may act differently. Reality modifies beliefs and does so unremorsefully.

    Think about Santa Claus, still believe in him?

  108. “Like I’ve said a hundred times.You read but do not comprehend.”

    A hundred times?

    Don’t sell yourself short. It’s probably more like thousands…..


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