Retail sales always fall two months in a row when jobs are growing strongly – according to Obama and his minions. Right? Last month’s positive report was “adjusted” to a decline. Do you need any more proof that government reported numbers are complete and utter bullshit? The purpose of seasonally adjusting bad retail sales numbers to a strong gain last month, was to stop the stock market from falling, which it was doing at the time. Mission accomplished. You just bury the lies in the next press release.
If you strip out the subprime debt goosed auto sales (rentals), you have retail sales up an entire 2.1% over last February. As the MSM mouthpieces fail to mention, last February was bitterly cold with huge snowstorms across the nation. This year was mild, with virtually no bad storms. This makes the year over year change even more pitiful. With real inflation above 2.1%, real retail sales are actually falling year over year. That always happens during an economic recovery. Right?
We are in the midst of a recession for the average person. Any gas savings have been siphoned off by the Obamacare abortion. The government also reports virtually no medical expense related inflation. That’s a hoot. The lies will keep coming because the government thinks the ignorant masses won’t figure it out. It seems the increasing throngs of Trump voters have figured it out. This sucker is going down.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/15/2016 08:42 -0400
Thanks to dramatic downward revisions (from “resilient” historical data which we pointed out were entirely anomalous at the time and due entirely to seasonal adjustments) retail sales have dropped 0.54% in the last two months – the biggest sequential drop in a year.
While the YoY change rose from +3.0% to +3.1%, it remains below historically-recessionary levels and given the revisions suggests Q1 GDP growth markdowns are on their way with sales down MoM for every cohort from gas stations to furniture.
Retail Sales down most in a year:
And YoY changes still at weak recessionary levels…
And the breakdown shows sales dropped across the board, with all the key segments, including the all important online sales, posting sequential declines:
- Motor Vehicles: -0.2%
- Furniture and Home Furnishing: -0.5%
- Electronics: -0.1%
- Food and Beverage: -0.2%
- Gasoline Stations: -4.4%
- General Merchandise: -0.2%
- Miscellaneous: -1.1%
- Online Sales: -0.2%
Sorry, I’m flabbergasted it isn’t more like 2008 given the shipping index and the possibility that Harpy could get vote-frauded in and then she and the UN, the Banksters and the FSA pillage and burn the country to the ground. PS: I joined the Republican Party of Florida (the only way to vote for Trump here) and now they keep sending me “thanks for your support, please send money” messages. Dear morons, I only joined because ya’ll were destroying The Bill of Rights and everything that made America great (or letting it be destroyed). Ya’ll plot against Trump (and me). I hate your guts and want Trump to destroy you all. I’d rather be put in a Lions Den than send you money.
I couldn’t help but notice that despite everything we’ve ever been told about lower fuel costs leading to greater spending, it appears that the opposite is true.
Why that is?
The Men’s Warehouse is closing 250 stores.
I find it amazing that a gov’t agency will even generate a revision that adjusts downward a (spurious) prior claim. Since it is obvious that GDP, Inflation, Employment, etc., are are butchered beyond comprehension, why do they bother with revisions? – is it a means to achieve respectability in the public’s eye?
The important item to note is when the initial claim is announced (mostly always exaggerated), it is intended to boost the stock market.
Hardscrabble,
I think lower fuel costs are helping compensate for lower pay, not giving people more spending money.
Do any of these numbers even mean anything anymore? They have been tweaked and adjusted so many times for so many years is there even a baseline that makes sense? Statistics are being reported on numbers that have been adjusted who knows how many times and compared against numbers from a year ago that were bullshit then.
The only statistic that means anything to me is the amount of money I have left in my wallet and checkbook at the end of the month and I can tell you it continues to be less and less in spite of the fact that I earn more than I ever have and I buy less than I ever have. Now that is a stat that is real and that I can trust.
Admin has talked about this many times, excerpt from a Newsmax article this morning:
‘Delinquencies on subprime auto debt packaged into securities reached a high not seen since October 1996, as late payments continued to worsen in February, according to Fitch Ratings.
The number of car borrowers who were more than 60 days late on their bills in February rose 11.6 percent from the same period a year ago, bringing the delinquency rate to 5.16 percent, Fitch wrote Monday in a report. During the financial crisis delinquencies peaked at 5.04 percent, Fitch wrote.’
kokoda, revise lower so the next numbers have a chance to look better starting from a lower base 🙂
warts…..Yeah, you are correct. Generally, the market responds to the initial super-duper announcement, but the revisions don’t get any fanfare. Then, the next month the revised lower number is used to show an improvement in the next month’s announcement.
They do this with stocks every quarter (analysts and companies).
@HSF: People are using the fuel savings to pay for the increase in their Obamacare. My premium increased 100% this year. As a country, we desperately need single-payer.
@HSF—Cause and affect
All other things being equal, lower fuel prices would lead to improved retail spending.
But consider: higher housing costs, rising rents— higher food costs —- higher medical premiums and deductibles just to mentions a few of the rising costs. Add the fact that incomes of the bottom 80% have declined, and realize that the decline of spending ability due to all these other costs and lower incomes far out weights the small improvement in fuel prices. So if you don’t have any money left after paying all your other bills and you cut back on fuel, fuel prices will drop.
Cause and effect – fuel prices are dropping because people are out of money and therefore buying less fuel not the other way around where fuels prices are lower so now people can buy more other stuff.
It’s an Obama economic recovery miracle, and another win for Obamacare’s tripled premiums.
No discretionary funds for you, American citizens.
Thanks, Obama.
The bomber et al tell me all is gooooood. 5% unemployed. I think all the all retailers are jus sick an tired of making profits. BTW my IQ is the same as all the slim in the cesspool.
BTW my IQ is the same as all the slim in the cesspool. ~Jack
Stick you in congress and you’d be Mensa material. 😉
Fire 3/4 of gov employees.Shut down boarder and no more free everything for illegals at tax payer expense.Audit congress and have them pay back all no bid gov contracts to friends and family with interest.Shut down Obamacare scam,Ditto Planned Parenthood.Give people of the US back THEIR MONEY!!!!!
@Anonymous: Sorry, this ship has sailed.
Based on my review of the histories of previous countries, the United States is headed for a Venezuela type of collapse. Only then, can there be a reset.