I get tired discrediting the MSM narrative of economic recovery, but I feel it’s my duty to set people straight. There were blaring headlines about the much better than expected retail sales in April. I find it humorous watching the government report this drivel and the MSM unquestioningly regurgitating it to the ignorant masses as retailer after retailer reports absolutely atrocious results.
Let’s dissect the bullshit report from the Census Bureau. They said retail sales went up 1.3% in April over March. Unless you delve into the actual report, you don’t know this is a seasonally adjusted number. On an unadjusted basis retail sales fell by 2%. But, for the sake of consistency I’ll use their adjusted numbers.
Total retail sales rose from $447.8 billion in March to $453.4 billion in April, an increase of $5.6 billion. That’s a 1.26% increase. Let’s breakdown our increase.
It seems $2.9 billion of that increase came from auto “sales”. That’s 52% of the total retail sales increase. So, desperate auto manufacturers with inventory piling sky high on their lots are doling out more subprime 7 year loans, 0% down leases, and offering massive rebate incentives to rid themselves of inventory. This is supposed to be some sort of positive development proving the consumer is back?
Remember those low gas prices? It seems the 30% increase in prices has boosted retail spending at gas stations by $700 million in one month and $1.7 billion over the last two months. Gas station sales increases account for another 13% of the monthly increase. So, 65% of the jump in retail sales is accounted for.
Another $550 million was produced at grocery stores, as food prices have jumped 20% since the beginning of the year. Paying more for less food is surely a sign of economic progress. Food is another 10% of the increase.
Lastly, the death of bricks and mortar retailers is further confirmed by the $900 million increase in on-line sales, as department store sales fell again.
In conclusion, the “awesome” increase in retail sales was essentially due to inflation in energy and food, with debt financed “renting” out of overpriced vehicles as the kicker. Sales at discretionary retailers like restaurants, sporting goods, electronics, and furniture stores were either flat or down. The MSM bullshit is a lie.
The ripple effect of the empty retail space alone could sink our ponzi scheme. Take a good look around, there are a lot of non performing retail realestate loans out there. The Quinn Retail Real Estate Indicator is flashing red. No sirens yet though.
Shoulda had better return policies.
You love to poke a pin in every inflated report, don’t you?
Seriously, I’m glad you do.
UPS guy says he’s busy as he has ever been this time of year. Our local mailmen now deliver packages on Sundays in U.S.mail-trucks.
Bob.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/audio/2016-05-13/davidowitz-all-u-s-department-stores-are-bad
Need to listen to this downstairs…
There is a shopping ,all across the line from our area that relies heavily on canadian shoppers, it has been on the radio that they are offering canuck bucks at par with the us green back for canadian shoppers.
Hurting?? nope not at all….
“Bellis Fair Mall puts Canadian dollar at par for holiday promotions”
I’m glad I have a Best Buy nearby so I can go and look, touch and feel the stuff I’m gonna buy from Amazon.