China first. But the rest will follow in rapid succession.
I notice the Euro currency missing – it should be high on the list. The dollar will eventually pop, but it will be near last. I’ve been betting on the dollar’s demise since 2008. It’s been a bad bet, and it will linger zombie-like longer than it possibly should.
Rise Up
May 25, 2016 2:03 pm
Let’s just get this over with and have all of them at once.
card802
May 25, 2016 2:11 pm
How about the bubble headed fantasy that politicians really want to help us, and not themselves.
TC
May 25, 2016 2:14 pm
Only the inner circle know when they will pull the plug and what will fall first. Of course there are people who know when, where and how and will profit greatly from it, but it’s safe to say that nobody here is in that club.
Bee Lever
May 25, 2016 2:46 pm
The derivatives ($) global financial bubble without a doubt. Any day now……..tick, tick, tick.
diogenes
May 25, 2016 3:03 pm
China, That place is a polluted shithole.
rhs jr
May 25, 2016 3:39 pm
If it was par Economics 101, they would all be busted flat already but with the Plunge Protection Team, fiat money printing 24/7 and TPTB lying like The Devil, the System is kept alive like some pulsing Space Monster Blob. It all depends on who (the BRICS, OPEC, N. Korea, God) pulls what plug first then they all scatter and die like roaches with hundred thousand pound dominoes falling on them during a 9.9 earthquake. My guess is that some more big nations that can’t print Euros like Spain & Italy will have to shove Greece aside in a Free For All Privatization Fire Sale to feed people (like in Venezuela); Investors will demand their Shorts get paid no matter how many must starve; Hedge Funds and The Zombie To Big To Fail Banks fail. Silent bank runs will bring down all the rest of the banks because the FDIC has to pay Derivatives First and couldn’t save a small Credit Union much less a Big US Bank.
bb
May 25, 2016 4:41 pm
Card , you seemed to be really stressed out the last couple of days. Go have some drinks and dance with a pretty lady. Forget about this world . It will still be here tomorrow.
IndenturedServant
May 25, 2016 5:19 pm
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constman54
May 25, 2016 5:40 pm
E) All of the above
Gator
May 25, 2016 6:06 pm
Haha I’m inclined to agree with IS….. But since this is more of an intellectual exercise(I’m sure we all think it kinda is irrelevant since they all will pop). I think the big red Ponzi will go first, if I had to guess. They will react by instituting real capital controls rather than the ‘paper tiger’ ones they have now. This will cause the next bubble, housing to collapse. Maybe not nationwide, but in the high end areas, which will spread, since much of it is driven by Chinese cash purchases. The PBoC will also print a shit ton of money, more than we have seen, trying to shore up the banks as the domestic defaults soar. This will drive the yen down, a lot. This, in combination with a flight to safety in the US dollar will cause the USD to take a huge leg upwards, which will drive domestic stocks down. It will also drive oil, priced in dollars down again, probably back into the 20-something a barrel range, further dragging US markets down. This will lead to layoffs across the board, which will pop the subprime auto bubble, and put further downward pressure on the US housing market.
The strengthening dollar/dropping oil price will collapse Venezuela even worse than right now, and cause further turmoil in the ME. This will cause the refugee crisis to worsen, and spread big disagreements between EU nations, causing uncertainty in EU bond and stock markets as well as the euro currency itself. Citizens of some EU counties will demand their sovereignty back, and will leave the EU, causing yet another currency crisis. This will also cause the collapse of at least a couple of the PIGS countries with the most debt, as no one will be in the mood for another bailout.
Whew, how’s that for some doom porn? But, what do I know, I’m not a PHD economist of anything.
artbyjoe
May 25, 2016 6:37 pm
it really doesn’t matter which one pops first. results are the same.
Gator
May 25, 2016 6:56 pm
damnit, just realized I typed ‘yen’ not ‘yuan’ in my first post, my bad
John Angelo
May 25, 2016 9:54 pm
This is the opening monologue to Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines. There’s a lot of wisdom in these words and accurately capture my sentiment since 2008. The movie is 13 years old, but these words from 2003 ring all the more prophetic in 2016:
“The future has not been written. There is no fate but what we make for ourselves. I wish I could believe that. My name is John Connor. They tried to murder me before I was born. When I was 13 they tried again. Machines from the future. Terminators. All my life, my mother told me the storm was coming. Judgment Day. The beginning of a war between man and machines. Three billion lives would vanish in an instant. And I would lead what was left of the human race to ultimate victory.
It hasn’t happened. No bombs fell. Computers didn’t take control. We stopped Judgment Day. I should feel safe… but I don’t. So I live off the grid. No phone, no address. No one and nothing can find me. I’ve erased all connections to the past. But as hard as I try… I can’t erase my dreams… my nightmares. I feel the weight of the future bearing down on me. A future I don’t want. So I keep running… as fast as I can. Anywhere. Nowhere.”
China first. But the rest will follow in rapid succession.
I notice the Euro currency missing – it should be high on the list. The dollar will eventually pop, but it will be near last. I’ve been betting on the dollar’s demise since 2008. It’s been a bad bet, and it will linger zombie-like longer than it possibly should.
Let’s just get this over with and have all of them at once.
How about the bubble headed fantasy that politicians really want to help us, and not themselves.
Only the inner circle know when they will pull the plug and what will fall first. Of course there are people who know when, where and how and will profit greatly from it, but it’s safe to say that nobody here is in that club.
The derivatives ($) global financial bubble without a doubt. Any day now……..tick, tick, tick.
China, That place is a polluted shithole.
If it was par Economics 101, they would all be busted flat already but with the Plunge Protection Team, fiat money printing 24/7 and TPTB lying like The Devil, the System is kept alive like some pulsing Space Monster Blob. It all depends on who (the BRICS, OPEC, N. Korea, God) pulls what plug first then they all scatter and die like roaches with hundred thousand pound dominoes falling on them during a 9.9 earthquake. My guess is that some more big nations that can’t print Euros like Spain & Italy will have to shove Greece aside in a Free For All Privatization Fire Sale to feed people (like in Venezuela); Investors will demand their Shorts get paid no matter how many must starve; Hedge Funds and The Zombie To Big To Fail Banks fail. Silent bank runs will bring down all the rest of the banks because the FDIC has to pay Derivatives First and couldn’t save a small Credit Union much less a Big US Bank.
Card , you seemed to be really stressed out the last couple of days. Go have some drinks and dance with a pretty lady. Forget about this world . It will still be here tomorrow.
[img
[/img]
E) All of the above
Haha I’m inclined to agree with IS….. But since this is more of an intellectual exercise(I’m sure we all think it kinda is irrelevant since they all will pop). I think the big red Ponzi will go first, if I had to guess. They will react by instituting real capital controls rather than the ‘paper tiger’ ones they have now. This will cause the next bubble, housing to collapse. Maybe not nationwide, but in the high end areas, which will spread, since much of it is driven by Chinese cash purchases. The PBoC will also print a shit ton of money, more than we have seen, trying to shore up the banks as the domestic defaults soar. This will drive the yen down, a lot. This, in combination with a flight to safety in the US dollar will cause the USD to take a huge leg upwards, which will drive domestic stocks down. It will also drive oil, priced in dollars down again, probably back into the 20-something a barrel range, further dragging US markets down. This will lead to layoffs across the board, which will pop the subprime auto bubble, and put further downward pressure on the US housing market.
The strengthening dollar/dropping oil price will collapse Venezuela even worse than right now, and cause further turmoil in the ME. This will cause the refugee crisis to worsen, and spread big disagreements between EU nations, causing uncertainty in EU bond and stock markets as well as the euro currency itself. Citizens of some EU counties will demand their sovereignty back, and will leave the EU, causing yet another currency crisis. This will also cause the collapse of at least a couple of the PIGS countries with the most debt, as no one will be in the mood for another bailout.
Whew, how’s that for some doom porn? But, what do I know, I’m not a PHD economist of anything.
it really doesn’t matter which one pops first. results are the same.
damnit, just realized I typed ‘yen’ not ‘yuan’ in my first post, my bad
This is the opening monologue to Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines. There’s a lot of wisdom in these words and accurately capture my sentiment since 2008. The movie is 13 years old, but these words from 2003 ring all the more prophetic in 2016:
“The future has not been written. There is no fate but what we make for ourselves. I wish I could believe that. My name is John Connor. They tried to murder me before I was born. When I was 13 they tried again. Machines from the future. Terminators. All my life, my mother told me the storm was coming. Judgment Day. The beginning of a war between man and machines. Three billion lives would vanish in an instant. And I would lead what was left of the human race to ultimate victory.
It hasn’t happened. No bombs fell. Computers didn’t take control. We stopped Judgment Day. I should feel safe… but I don’t. So I live off the grid. No phone, no address. No one and nothing can find me. I’ve erased all connections to the past. But as hard as I try… I can’t erase my dreams… my nightmares. I feel the weight of the future bearing down on me. A future I don’t want. So I keep running… as fast as I can. Anywhere. Nowhere.”