Joseph Tainter wrote “Collapse of Complex Civilizations”, Tom Lewis thinks the collapse will be due to complex and unnecessary technology in an essay posted below. An initial reading may strike you as humorous but later reflection revels a serious problem. Adding unnecessary and costly gizmos and gadgets with real wages going down seems counterproductive but it creates employment for geeks.
Reliability of a system is determine by the product of the reciprocal of the various components. If a system has one component that is 99.9% reliable the system is 99.9% reliable. If you add a second component that is 99.9% reliable the system is 99.8% reliable, 99.9% x 99.9% =99.8%. Even though each component is highly reliable each component reduces the over system reliability. Here’s Tom –
Technology is Now a Cancer. Stage Four. Metastasized.
This is your brain on technology. Get help. (Image by techinfographics. com)
“New and improved” is now an oxymoron. Every single day my cell phone tells me that 10 or 20 apps have been “updated” and none of them ever work better. Instead, a phone that worked perfectly when I got it now tells me, 10 to 20 times a day, “Unfortunately, Moto has stopped.” The operating rule in technology for years now has been, if it isn’t broke, graft something onto it so we can advertise it as new and improved.
Why does every coffee maker come with a clock? Because consumers have been banging their pitchforks on the iron gates of the appliance companies, chanting “We want clocks!”? No. They do it because they can. Likewise with variable-strength settings, and delayed-start. Now they’re connecting the coffee pots to the Internet of Things so we can talk to them about coffee with our smartphones. I don’t want to discuss coffee with my coffee pot. I just want a damn cup of coffee.
Okay the examples so far are trivial. These aren’t:
- More cars broke down and stranded their occupants on the road in 2015 than in any year on record. The main culprit, according to AAA: technology.
- Farmers in several states are campaigning to win the right to repair their own machines, while manufacturers claim the farmers only lease the technology that makes the thing run, and any problem has to be handled by a certified technician in a company-owned service center. Tell a farmer that when, in harvest time, his $400,000 combine is sitting silent in a field containing his annual income for lack of a 100-dollar oxygen sensor. Then step back.
- Long-haul truckers are desperate to escape the rising costs of technology — some of it mandated to control emissions. “The engines and drive trains of these new trucks are good for a million miles, easy,” one operator told me. “But the technology starts shutting them down after about 20,000 miles.” Nothing like having a refrigerated 18-wheeler stopped on an Interstate ramp in Florida because a crankshaft-position sensor is hallucinating.
- Now comes the Internet of Things, featuring devices connected to the Internet via your Wifi system so you can use your smart phone to feed your dog, adjust the thermostat in your empty house, adjust your refrigerator temperature (something I personally have not done more than twice in 50 years), adjust the lighting in your empty house, and other necessary things.
There is no question that automobiles, for example, are far better today than they were 30 years ago, mainly because of improvements in the machining of engine and drive-train parts. We used to have to drive a car a thousand miles at painfully slow speeds to “seat” the valves and rings and bearings, which meant, let them bang against each other until they fit better. Even when properly broken in, and most of us didn’t wait to exceed 60 miles per hour, it was rare for an engine to last 100,000 miles. Now, precision tools have done away with the break-in period, and at least tripled the life expectancy of engines. Score one for technology.
Now consider the matter of the ignition key. Was this a huge problem? Were people calling customer service and demanding a black box with a battery in it to carry around, instead of a key?
Never mind. Here’s your black box, because the engineers are proud of it and the marketers think it has legs. Forget about worrying where your keys are, just leave the box in the car. (Whoops. Kills the car battery. Which disables the car locks. Which you need to operate to get at the battery. Snag.) Okay, leave it on a shelf inside the house. (Which might be close enough to the car to allow you to start it and leave, not discovering that you don’t have the box until you get where you’re going and shut off the car. Snag.)
As we patch and fix and tinker to deal with such unintended consequences, and add on the newest insane ideas of the engineers, the software required to run a car has become bloated and bug-bitten. It takes 100 million lines of software to get you on your way. All of Facebook operates on 60 million lines.
In fact, according to a new book Overcomplicated: Technology at the Limits of Comprehension, the sheer size of these programs, with their fixes and patches and now interactions over Wifi and Internet networks, is exceeding the ability of the human mind to comprehend them. Hm. Sounds like it’s time for driverless cars. What could go wrong?
Moreover, the opportunities for malware have been increased by orders of magnitude. It is now possible to insert an infected CD in a car’s player which, when played, will disable the car’s brakes.
And the growth goes on. In every field of endeavor, the engineers and the marketers high-five each other every time they come up with some new feature that nobody needs, but everybody can be convinced they ought to have. (“No, really! It’s not a bug, it’s a feature!”)
There is nothing in nature that grows continuously except cancerous tumors that eventually kill their hosts. That is what technology is doing now — getting so big and ponderous that it is beginning to endanger the systems it was supposed to be helping.
Roy. Two things. First, this article is dead on.
Second, you’re getting old enough that you’ll soon find out if your bet about God was right. I wish you well.
I hate my wifes fucking piece of shit over tecnology loaded ford. Cant change the radio station and the navigation for a grand which it did not come without is useless. 4wd but so low to the ground she tore the exhaust off with less than a thousand miles on that truck. On a city street. In boston. I dont ask much out of a vehicle. But I should be able to change the radio station without looking away from the road. And clear a pot hole.
God is real and the Gospels are closer than any other religion. Doubters need to watch the many testimonials on Youtube like: ATHEIST’S NEAR DEATH EXPERIENCE: SEEING HELL, HEAVEN AND MEETING GOD !!; Heaven/hell; Ex Muslim Tells His Near Death Experience; etc.
People on the path to damnation usually don’t like being told they are on it.
Like all deception, it promises wonderful goodness but delivers only misery, strife and death.
As a Christian all we can do is inform people they are on it and tell them of the only way to get off it, they have to decide for themselves if they will take it.
The world ends in a robotic genocide . . . . brought on when a technician forgets to uncheck the ‘Kill All Humans’ auto-enroll box on the robot army configuration page.
Roy is right. Consumer products have too many bells and whistles for me to take the time to learn. I give you expensive microwave ovens as examples. They are equipped to deal with every possible variable someone dreamed up in the heating of food and thus have become too cumbersome to deal with. I never have figured out how to use my daughter-in-law’s wretched one. My nice cheap one is still pretty simple. Just put in the time you want to heat the food and then remove the food when the time is up.
It sounds like new cars and other wheeled vehicles are becoming nightmarish contraptions. I have a feeling the cancer is going to get the best of us.
Old Phil clipped a cartoon of a mechanic throwing a fit. Another mechanic tells the customer, we have the latest technology but it appears we’re too stupid to use it.
Right on Roy, you nailed it!!
Good article…damn you are sharp for 80. Whatever you are doing, keep it up. +100
Excellent commentary, Roy! I am an AF vet too… Husband retired at 20, then worked for Boeing doing the same thing when the government decided contract labor made sense (for Boeing.)
Excellent article and 100% true!
New and improved was an oxymoron long before all this technology came along. I heard a comedian (carlin?) who complained that everything these days is New and Improved which implies that it was old and lousy.
I’ve told a number of local millenials that old, American made *stuff* would eventually become a road to riches and I believe it more with every passing day. Have the time, money and space to store it until demand arrives is the only problem. I still shop in some old mom and pop stores that carry NOS merchandise that is up to 100 years old. One store has some ancient casters that I’d bet you could balance a modern pickup truck on and tow down the highway with no problem weight wise.
Thanks for posting!
More systems failure. The more complex, the more rigid; every part must work every time, so the more parts, the more likely any given failure mode will occur.
Some car manufacturer should look at reviving simple, easy-to-fix cars with NO electronics (plugs, points and condenser, anyone?) and see how many they sell. I can guarantee I would pay for a new car that had NO electronic ignition, NO GPS, NO cd/mp4/WiFi, NO way for anyone to track, hack or locate you. NONE of these things are the basic mission of a car, to get you from here to there, safely.
Just like the government, cars are doing things they were never meant to do, and failing overall.
Greetings,
Roy is right in that these systems are becoming so complex that humans are just unable to take it all in. Enter the robots.
See, as we come to rely on things like the internet or self driving cars, the thought of them crashing will become an unthinkable event. Technology will, itself, become too big to fail. So, for all this to work, we’ll have to hand over the task of maintaining, troubleshooting and programming to the machines themselves. After all, humans make mistakes.
Once our vital infrastructure is handed over to the machines then it is anyone’s guess where it goes from there.
Watson 2020!
The “unabomber” Ted Kaczynski nailed this 20 years ago.
The Amish did the same hundreds of years before that, but took a different approach to dealing with it.
Brought my HRV into Honda Dealership as AC Fan was making loud noise. They told me it required a diagnostic ($275) first. I said no, the AC is fine (cooling works). After two more steadfast replies from me, I won. It was a mouse that load up the interior of the fan with insulation.
Point being that the new ‘model’ for Dealerships is automatic diagnostics required for every malady = $$$$$$$.
I previously brought in a 2010 Honda as Instrument Cluster icon for Tire Pressure Warning came on. Yep, a diagnostic was required to determine which tire had the faulty sensor. It was also an outrageous price to replace that sensor. It would have been cheaper to just go buy a new tire and sensor – I’m thinking that after-market may have a diagnostic toy for the TPS sensors.
You have it nailed. It’s about the money.
We have the same issue… the TPMS comes on every so often, but if the tires dont look flat, we just ignore it. Literally would cost over $1K to fix them… screw that!
Arthur C. Clarke wrote a sci fi short story on this theme over 50 years ago. It is titled “Superiority” and can be found in it’s entirety at http://www.mayofamily.com/RLM/txt_Clarke_Superiority.html. It was once on the required reading list for incoming freshmen at MIT. The piece is written as a report from a star fleet officer explaining why his force was defeated by the “barbarians” equipped with inferior technology.
When I cruise flea markets a common refrain is “It was made here in the U.S.” about an old tool whose maker is long gone or has moved to Asia. Our supply lines for everything from home goods to military equipment now extend across the Pacific. Auto production lines have shut down because a part made in China or Taiwan or Japan did not arrive “just in time” and there is no supplier left here at home.
I can remember when there were no computers and mobile phones. Man was it sweet. Also I still own a flip phone because I don’t want to own a phone which is smarter than me.
Due to a near by lighting strike, I need to replace a TV, DVD player, and A/V Amplifier – all about 15 years old.
New Samsung flat panel – has extensive setup menu. Yamaha receiver has never ending setup menu and 162 page manual. Oppo DVD player has 50 page manual, and setup menu.
As a computer scientist if have zero interest in reading all this bullshit. I actually doubt some of the ‘stuff’ actually works.
And have you noticed most of the flat-screen tvs you see out there in public (or even people’s homes) have a distorted picture. The picture is noticeably squashed and nobody gives a shit!
One Tv I had.. None of the dozens of settings gave an undistorted image, so I just quit watching altogether.. It just creates such an unpleasant sensation. My partner keeps watching, though (different tv but still squished) and gets angry because I’m always saying, “Damn! How can you *stand* to look at that!”
What I hate is those fucking CFR lightbulbs. More $$$ than the old incandescent bulbs, they don’t last near as long as promised, they have the brightness of a candle for the first 10 minutes upon turning on and if you break one you need to call in a HazMat team to clean it up.
Also, as a buyer of pre-owned cars who drives them longterm, what if I don’t want them to be like my smartphone? Seems like all you can buy anymore have all of the computer GPS, navigation, text capabilities, etc. I don’t want to pay for all that shit now or when it breaks down later. I already have a smartphone for texting and I prefer a portable $140 Garmin that I can use with different vehicles anyway.
Call me old fashioned, but I’ve seen the future and it’s FUBAR.
Good article, Roy.
“…it was rare for an engine to last 100,000 miles.”
Apparently the author is not familiar with Toyota or Honda brand automobiles, just to name a couple.
I have had several Hondas go well past 100k before I sold them, and one Civic had 240k.
Totally spot on, the diminishing returns of complex systems.
I own a 2002 Ford F150. Cassette player(I only use radio), manual windows, rubber flooring, regular old key. I love it and would never trade for a new one. Not even if an even swap was offered. I am also looking to purchase a late 60’s VW bug with original ignition system. Simple and reliable machinery.
The sun will soon awaken and offer us up a wonderful coronal mass ejection with the magnitude of the Carrington event. IMO, that will fix everything.
I couldn’t agree more with every point. If an appliance says “programmable” I won’t consider buying it. It’s likely that moments after the incredibly short warranty period has expired some microscopic electronic component will die or malfunction leaving one with the burden of taking the now useless carcass to the recycling center.
Agree with most of commenters that this was a super-duper post.
I had to have the second set of brake rotors replaced yesterday within 40,000 miles. My mechanic said it’s because even the “factory” parts are made with cheap-ass metals in china and they warp after warming up and get out of round.
Nothing like planned obsolescence.
peaknic……..if you are well-off, ignore this comment.
Learn how to change pads and rotors yourself; it IS fairly easy.
Go online and buy better rotors than OEM.
The price dealers charge for this is obscene.
Note: I am familiar with rotors warping; agree with your mechanic.
OEM rotors for my car were $108 each from the dealer and were just like the original which wore out within about 50k miles. I bought Raybestos Professional brand composite (bimetal) rotors and Centric pre-scorched pads for all 4 wheels for about $200 delivered from Amazon and spent 3 hours putting them on with the help of youtube vids.
The dealer wanted over $800 to do the job with inferior OEM parts. You can do it too, probably.
Nicholas Taleb’s “Anti fragile”
“Antifragile is a blueprint for living in a Black Swan world”
My brother was the head mechanic at a ford dealership and he said every year Ford sent someone to brief them on the new stuff to kill off shade tree mechanics.