5 factors that could turn America into another collapsed empire

 

Nations are just as likely to unravel after periods of prosperity as after periods of depression

JEFF HAYNES/AFP/Getty Images
Rich nations fall apart, too.

Have you ever met an Ottoman? Or a Habsburg? Neither have I.

Like a chopped-up Magritte painting, all that is left of the Habsburgs is a homburg hat. Yet in the 1800s, the Ottoman and Habsburg Empires controlled a huge chunk of the modern world. One in 10 Americans can trace his or her heritage to Habsburg lands, which spanned most of middle Europe from Poland down to Dracula’s castle in Transylvania.

Many people have written about poor countries that have fallen apart. But rich nations fall apart, too. In fact, nations are just as likely to unravel after periods of prosperity as after periods of depression. The 2016 presidential campaign appears so bitter precisely because so many Americans worry that the “other” party’s candidate will annihilate the nation.

I have found five forces that undermine nations after they achieve economic success — and they are biting down on the U.S. today. We have little time to spare to renew the nation. Whichever candidate wins in November better come up with tough and effective solutions.

Falling birthrates

As countries grow rich, people have fewer babies. (The average American women now gives birth to just 1.89 children.) To keep up their lofty standard of living, citizens need new workers to serve them, whether as neurosurgeons in hospitals or as manicurists. This requires immigrants. But immigrants can splinter the dominant culture. So countries face either declining relative wealth or a fraying cultural fabric. Great empires of the past, from the Roman to the Venetian to the British, have faced this challenge — and failed to surmount it.

Globalized trade

Nations cannot grow and stay rich without trading. Countries that fold themselves into a self-contained bubble grow fetid, like a badly aerated terrarium. Or a dank prison, which pretty much describes North Korea. South Koreans, who believe in trade, are 17 times richer, live 10 years longer, and stand several inches taller than their neighbors. South Korea produces super-sharp Samsung flat screens, fine Hyundai cars and charismatic K-pop singers.

But there’s a downside to trade. It shakes the customs and character of the nation. Donald Trump has skillfully tapped into this anxiety and is right to ask whether trade deals like the Trans-Pacific Partnership are vigorously negotiated to boost the incomes of typical Americans, or simply to boost the ego of the president.

Harper Collins

Rising debt loads

As countries grow richer, they build bigger bureaucracies and inflate their debts. Here’s a puzzle I call “The Paradox of Theft:” As a family grows wealthier, it is less likely to fall into deep debt, default and bankruptcy. But the opposite is true of individual countries — wealthier nations may pile up proportionately more debt than poorer nations.

Amid the Great Recession of 2010, developing countries like Mexico and Russia had smaller debt burdens than Japan, the U.S. and the eurozone. Why do we borrow more? Because we can! And because today’s politicians aren’t held responsible for the debts they leave for our children and grandchildren.

Eroding work ethic

When a rich nation shatters, people don’t go hungry. They just stop waking up early. The proportion of adults who want to work has been sliding over the last 17 years. In West Virginia, only half of working-age adults have a job. Between 2000 and 2013, disability claims across the country surged 43%. Even though jobs have grown less dangerous, the chances of a judge approving a disability claim has jumped 50% since 1980.

We are seeing a structural shift: Millions have decided they just don’t care much for the idea of showing up for work in the morning and staying on the job until the end of the day.

To prod the unemployed back to work, I propose they receive a signing bonus if they accept a new job before their unemployment compensation payments run out.

The challenge of patriotism in a multicultural country

Unless rich nations discover and embrace their national characters, they won’t survive. In many schools, the Pledge of Allegiance and “My Country ’Tis of Thee” have been pushed aside in favor of self-esteem chants. Characters like Columbus, the Pilgrims and George Washington have been disdained as pillagers, rather than as symbols of exploration, religious freedom and courage.

To help ensure that all learn America’s story and values, all immigrants and any U.S. student applying for a federal loan be required to get their passports stamped at no fewer than five historical monuments or museums around the country.

Is it too late?

Should the U.S. and European nations simply hold a “going out of business sale” while the wealthiest individuals sneak off to private islands or to New Zealand? The odds are against us, as the Spartans, Romans, Ottomans, and Habsburgs would attest — if they were still around.

But as Bill Murray said in Stripes: “We’re not Watusi. We’re not Spartans. We’re Americans, with a capital ‘A”…that means that our forefathers were kicked out of every decent country in the world. We are the wretched refuse. We’re the underdog. We’re the mutts.”

And we can win again.

Todd G. Buchholz, a former White House director of economic policy under President George H.W. Bush and managing director of the legendary Tiger hedge fund, is the author of the just-released “The Price of Prosperity: Why Rich Nations Fail and How to Renew Them.” Follow him on Twitter @EconTodd

 


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Dutchman
Dutchman

He left out the most important one: Lies.

Today everything that has to do with our government is either an outright lie, a lie by omission, or a lie by twisted statistics.

When the truth is obscured in this manner, there is no way to fix problems, since you’ve not been told what the real problem is.

Ed
Ed

Old Todd sure proves my maxim that if he looks like an asshole, he’s probably an asshole. Just look at the motherfucker.

rhs jr
rhs jr

One thing is for certain, the day of destruction will come very swiftly if Harpy is elected (please vote Trump). He was weak on solutions to postpone or reverse the collapse; that would make a mush better article since we all already know a of a couple dozen Black Swans a flying. We know we are being crapped on; how can we stop it before TPTB crash the economy and start chopping Conservative Goy’s heads off?

Cdubbya
Cdubbya

“Todd G. Buchholz, a former White House director of economic policy under President George H.W. Bush ”
Excellent credentials of a greed-driven corporate stooge: ‘Borrow billions and give it to the banks and the military-industrial complex’ – a truly enlightened policy, nice work asshole.

It is quite certain that the American empire is going to collapse, just a matter of when and how violently. Still, this is not necessarily all bad for America and certainly not for the rest of the World.

bb

I hope TRUMP wins but it’s already to late to avoid the coming debt default and currency collapses. This Will only divide the nation even more along racial / ethnic groups .I have never in my life had so much hatred in my heart toward other so called Americans. I see half this population as nothing but treasonous parasites who are willing voting for our destruction. I never had hate like this until about 6 years ago when I found out most of what I thought I knew were Damn LIES.

3rd Generation
3rd Generation

Very Well said – Your comments are like a mental blueprint for Millions, I’d bet…

I too ‘woke up’ (sorta hate the term, but wtf) and went semi-Galt at around the same time you did. No Regrets whatsoever.

What was your tipping point ?

Anyone Else ? (apologies – not a hijack attempt).

I look forward to see the feral animals deal with one another in a Real Crisis, be that in the 30 blocks, or in DC.

I’d wager, when push-comes-to-shove, they both eat their young.

Dutchman
Dutchman

@bb: I’m afraid that MORE than half the people think they can get something for ‘free’.

The other day I was sitting in on our health care meeting. They have several levels of plan. One of the plans allows you the first 3 doctor visits per year – for ‘free’. I pointed out that they were not ‘free’ – since their cost is factored into the premiums you are paying.

The other thing about less than half the people working. That’s only going to continue for so long. Us productive people, figure how to work smarter and have a responsibility to get the job done right. I’m convinced we work more – like the frog who unknowingly is cooked – with the pressure of additional taxes, fees, inflation, etc. There will come a time when us people will reach the point of John Galt – an say “fuck it – you do it”.

Hell, we had a lawn service, and they couldn’t even mow the grass correctly. How can you fuck that up?

Bourbon pete
Bourbon pete

I too have so much hate for the brain dead morons in our country. Especially my own family members who think Hillary is “just brilliant”. We’ve passed the point of no return.

bb

One last thing ,Thank Christ in Heaven for the internet and sites like the Burning Platform. I sincerely mean that Jim Quinn.

Boat Guy
Boat Guy

It’s not , My country tis of the but rather “MY COUNTRY BONE FUCKED ME , SWEET DEAL FOR THEM NOT ME , RIGGED FOR SOME NOT THEE !
Face it the very people dependent on a successful industrial based economy by taxing it screwed it in every way and in every orfice possible . Trade and import deals that entice industry to move and don’t give me that to high Union wage and benefits shit ! I lived it it was not the cost of American workers being well paid it was the cost of government and connected investor class who buy every seat in our representative republic till there is nothing left but unemployed groups scrambling to survive and a tax base so diluted or looted that disability unemployment welfare or crime is all that’s left while the government mortgages the future into a debt spiral that is inconceivable . And no the wealthy do not pay a fair share I have been fortunate to always find a fair paying job but I was also gifted with hands on training in a repair field that few handle well and yes I got my hands dirty making my money so as I recall I paid 28% tax rate on $60k while Mitt paid 15% on $12 MILLON ! Problem : no I don’t believe wealthy people should pay a higher rate but neither should I . I expect total equal treatment by government as a free American and obviously such is not the case . So grab all you can while you can like the Titanic scramble in that lifeboat with expensive stuff because otherwise it’s going down with the ship !

Lisa
Lisa

He says this country need immigrants because of the falling birthrates of Americans? He obviously worked for a Bush. What a Bushite this moron is.

We have 2 sons in their young 20s. We are middle class and it took a small fortune to raise them, and that’s without vacations and nearly all our stuff came 2nd hand from garage sales including clothes. We would have had more kids but we couldn’t afford them. The US middle class is punished for having children, that’s why they don’t have more.

Instead, “enlightened” fools, like the Bushes and their cronies (for example, the guy who wrote this article), import the dregs from around the world, and our own home grown dregs, and pay them to have children. That is their job, popping babies every year. Why work when the foolish government will pay you to have babies instead? The middle class gets to pay to feed and clothe and “educate” and jail those feral children, to the detriment of their own children. If our idiot government was interested in a higher quality population they wouldn’t try so hard to discourage their middle class from having children.

straightline
straightline

Wouldn’t it be great if Barbara Bush has maintained her virginity until after menopause. Oh well, wishful thinking.

Ed
Ed

I’ve always thought that Barbara Bush was living proof that GHW Bush is a secret homo. She looks more like a man than he does. I wonder if W got confused by having two daddies?

llpoh
llpoh

Todd G. Buttholes said in his article : “To prod the unemployed back to work, I propose they receive a signing bonus if they accept a new job before their unemployment compensation payments run out.”

Fuck me, that discredits every damn thing he says. So he thinks we need to resort to bribing people to take work. That is despicable – bribe someone to do something that they are obliged to do. It is similar to Chamberlain’s belief he could make peace with Hitler.

It is insane to try to bribe someone to do the right thing. It will never work. Use the goddamn stick and eat the damn carrot yourself.

Here is how to give incentive by using the stick: cancel all unemployment compensation. That will have the effect he wants – they will be real anxious to get a job then. And we will have no need to bribe them.

But no, that is too “hard”. That is “unfair”. That is not “politically correct”.

I am surrounded by fuckwits.

Full Retard
Full Retard

Your too nice, LLPOH. The dude writes like a moran.

South Korea is prosperous because it believes in trade? He suggests that S Koreans are taller because they believe in trade. I believe in trade but I never grew taller than 5’1″.

He could have written, ‘American women on average’ but instead, he writes; ”The average American women now gives birth to just 1.89 children.”

He suggests that immigrants play a cultural equivalent of Pokemon, chasing after statues and monuments of American heroes like Bush Deuce, Lon Cheney, Jackie Wilson and Tito Jackson.

Even the Maya and Aztecs are still around, although their civilizations are history. Too bad the fuckers didn’t make the least effort to control illegal immigration.

fear & loathing

bonus before you start, yea that sounds like a winner. little like free education, get what you pay for, i delight in the knowledge that professors are now worth zero as well.

ASIG
ASIG

Richmond Cal. is now paying criminals $1000 a month to stop committing crimes.
Political insanity knows no bounds. You just can’t make this shit up!!

Richmond, CA: Pay Criminals $1,000 a Month NOT to Commit a Crime—Not a Joke

bb

3th generation , my point was getting laid off in 2009 after the housing bubble collapsed . I finally bought a computer and internet service. After a couple months of reading about different schools of economic theory I knew something was wrong.The internet has been one of the best blessing for finding the truth. I had to dig but it was worth every hour.

3rd Generation
3rd Generation

bb
I hear and respect you for that and I totally agree, re: the net.

For me, it was a combo-plate/menu of learning about: FIAT money creation, credit, the Fed/Creature from Jekyll Island, banking/Money Masters, the housing collapse, the TARP scam/Wall Street whores, the scandal of robo-signed (Linda Green, et. al.) legal documents, the ongoing chronic general lawlessness and non-culpability of certain classes of people, the race hustler game, bought-and-paid for politics and discovering things, institutions and individuals I thought were legitimate and were respectable were simply frauds, rackets and whores nothing more. The workings of the ‘media’/pressitutes, Propoganda/Bernays techniqs, the entire 9/11 situation, Goebbels- the way populations are sold on and led to war, etc. etc. The internet made this post-college education possible and for that I am extremely grateful and remain awed by the power.

America has been a place of tremendous opportunity for our Family (3rd Generation) until very recently. Still, I wouldn’t consider abusing her/the ‘system’ in the grotesque way that a large percentage of the population does and seem to think it is OK and business as usual.

Sooner or Later, there ARE consequences. Peace Out.

livin in da nile
livin in da nile

it IS too late – even IF da “TRUMP” wins – as pogo might say – “We is screwed” the elite will still hold sway over CON-gress Trump most likely will NOT downsize da gubermint becuz “Merikans” will be pissed / NO downsizing means that debt GROWS – possibly more slowly – the bubble WILL pop / I think a currency crisis will ruin Amerika & government will then have excuse to go to electronic “money” with EBT cards / cash will be criminal / travel will be restricted etc / better HIDE yer GOLD !

Hershey
Hershey

BB I changed from downvoting you for “to late to” to upvoting for being spot on. I fucking loathe liberals now and I supported Obama in 07. I thought Hillary was a good role model standing by Bill in the Lewinsky scandal. I thought Bill was a great middle east peacemaker getting the evil Arafat to shake hands. I thought the nato balkan bombing was needed against evil Milosevic. That was all when the only news I got was from the TV.

3rd Gen, I also got the good oil about 6 yrs ago in late 2011 but i knew a number of things very wrong esrly than that but could not put it all together. When iraq and afghanistan started around 2002 I said this will send the US bankrupt like the end of Rome. Before that in 1999-2000 I bought all new equipment and tools and noticed everything including the top name brands was all made in China. I said China will become the strongest country economically, my Chinese friend said no, most people there are just peasant farmers and a bicycle is a big luxury. He obviously hadnt been back since he left there. I saw the social engineering effect on families and the extreme corription from it in institutions starting a few years earlier from the late 90s. So I knew all this but when you talked about it nobody agreed or cared. One night I was just skipping radio stations in the car and by chance landed on an interview and they were talking about Ron Paul doing great in the election debates, yet I didnt even know who he was. They mentioned a website and I looked it up. I mostly only used internet for work/car interest stuff before. The rabbit hole had me reading and reading, thinking I wasnt nuts after all. When I finally understood that banks never had any of the money I had borrowed in my lifetime, that I had paid so much fees and interest on to slowly get the principal down, that it was created out of nothing, I determined to sell up enough to be out of debt and owe them nothing ever again, downsize, and did it.

These issues of basic fairness vs liberal lunacy now are way beyond agree to disagree territory, its either with us or against us. Being objective and using your brain is called uneducated, conspiracy, misogyny and hate now. Donald Trump in America, Nigel Farrage in England, Marine Le Pen in France, Geert Wilders in Holland and Pauline Hanson in Australia represent us and if they keep fucking us we go galt and bring the house down like Samson.

Full Retard
Full Retard

BB I changed from downvoting you for “BB says” to upvoting for being BB.
Sail on, silver surfer in your 55 foot silver rig.
Keep us posted on your travels across the great land!

3rd Generation
3rd Generation

Terrific points – all of them. Thank you for sharing. It gives me great personal pleasure (how’s That for selfish – eh?) to realize that I am not alone here in the wilderness. . .

Happiness IS a positive Cash Flow.

Filomeno Reyes
Filomeno Reyes

Here’s a song for Stuck:

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