Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,
Based on this analytic structure, Trump may not just win the election in November–he might win by a landslide.
If we believe the mainstream media and the Establishment it protects and promotes, Trump has no chance of winning the presidential election. For starters, Trump supporters are all Confederate-flag waving hillbillies, bigots, fascists and misogynists. In other words. “good people” can’t possibly vote for Trump.
Even cartoon character Mike Doonesbury is fleeing to Vancouver to escape Trumpism. (Memo to the Doonesbury family: selling your Seattle home will barely net the down payment on a decent crib in Vancouver.)
For another, Trump alienates the entire planet every time he speaks.
The list goes on, of course, continuing with his lack of qualifications.
But suppose this election isn’t about Trump or Hillary at all. Suppose, as political scientists Allan J. Lichtman and Ken DeCell claimed in their 1988 book, Thirteen Keys to the Presidency, that all presidential elections from 1860 to the present are referendums on the sitting president and his party.
If the public views the sitting president’s second term favorably, the candidate from his party will win the election. If the public views the sitting president’s second term unfavorably, the candidate from the other party will win the election.
(Lichtman published another book on his system in 2008, The Keys to the White House: A Surefire Guide to Predicting the Next President.)
Author/historian Robert W. Merry sorts through the 13 analytic keys in the current issue of The American Conservative magazine and concludes they “could pose bad news for Clinton.”
If five or fewer are negative for the incumbent, the incumbent party will win the election. If six or more are negative, the incumbent party loses the election. Merry counts eight negatives for President Obama’s second term, which if true spells defeat for the Clinton ticket.
Whether the 13 issues are positive or negative for the candidates is of course open to debate, but consider what it means that Trump won the Republican nomination despite the near-universal opposition of the Establishment.
Consider that some polls found that 68 percent of adults think the country is on the wrong track and a recent average of six polls on the subject concluded that 64% of adults feel the nation is moving in the wrong direction.
This means 2/3 of the nation’s adults no longer buy into the Establishment/ mainstream media’s narrative that the economy is expanding nicely, things are going in the right direction and Hillary Clinton has a lock on the presidency.
Merry scored the economy as a positive for the incumbent party, but based on the public’s view of where the nation is heading, I suspect the reality that the economy is weakening rapidly can no longer be hidden from the voting public. If we score the economy as a negative, that’s nine negative keys for the incumbent party, well above the six minimum.
Based on this analytic structure, Trump may not just win the election in November–he might win by a landslide–with landslide usually being defined by an overwhelming advantage in electoral college votes or 60% of the popular vote.
As improbable as this may seem at the moment, consider the improbability of Trump capturing the Republican nomination. Consider the nature of Clinton’s support: a mile wide (encompassing the entire Establishment) but only an inch deep.
If the mainstream media has failed to persuade the American public that everything’s going in the right direction, why should anyone remain confident that they can persuade the American pubic that Hillary will be their president come heck or high water?
As I have noted before, there are very few ways left to stick your thumb in the eye of the elitist, predatory, self-serving Establishment that won’t get you tossed in prison other than voting against their candidate, which in this election is Hillary Clinton.
Memo to Clinton supporters: if you want to persuade the American public the nation is going in the right direction, you’ll have to actually change the direction rather than just promise more of the same.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
I don’t have to tell you things are bad. Everybody knows things are bad. The fiat paper buys a nickels worth of goods. Banks are going bust.
Shopkeepers have guns under the counters. The thugs are frustrated and running wild in the streets.
None of the bribed politico’s seem to have enuf balls to figure out what to do, & there is no end to it.
We know the air is unfit to breathe some days, we know the GMO foods are unfit to eat. The masses sit, watching, listening to the lying media, while some bubble headed bleach blonde tells us that today Shitcongo had 15 homicides and 63 violent crimes, as if that’s the way its supposed to be.
We know things are crazy. Its like everything, everywhere is crazy, so we don’t go out anymore.
We sit in the house & slowly the world we know and cherish is getting smaller, and all they tell us is at least you have your toaster,TV, & steel belted radials. Just shut up!!
Well, I/we won’t shut up, and I/we won’t leave you alone.
I want you to get MAD! Don’t protest,riot or write your for sale congress critter.
I don’t know what to do about the oncoming depression, inflation, the boogeyman Russian’s & the feral criminals in the streets.
All I know is, you’ve got to get MAD!
You’ve got to say – “We’re human beings and this planet belongs to everyone, God Damn it! Our lives have value!” fuck Killary, Soros, lil barry, and the Rothchilds. It’s game on motherfuckers!
VOTE TRUMP!!!!!!!!!!!!
Greetings,
This will be an interesting election. Should Trump lose and there are problems with the vote count then I might expect to see civil unrest. Should Trump win then I might expect to see even more civil unrest as those that haven’t produced anything in several generations may want to remind everyone of their privledged status as welfare slaves. Either way, expect unrest.
I wish Gen Patton was still here. “The Truth is finally going to gut that Harpy bitch from her lying Commie lips to her stinking criminal fat ass. She is no more fit to be elected Commander and Chief of this Great Nation than that paperhanging SOB Kraut Fuhrer in Berlin was!” Alex, I’ll take Landslide for $1,000.
Hillary literally has no events scheduled for the whole month of September. She physically may not be able to continue. Trump may win by default. Not that it matters who wins. No one can fix this burning wreck of a country. Ain’t enough lifeboats ( Qe3’s )to pump the water (Capitol).
Rainman………
She could just be devoting the majority of her “feeble” time to debate prep, because she’s going to need it. With her health being bad, she’s trying to conserve energy and focus on that. At least that’s my guess.
If Hillary is unable to continue, I would expect a third Obama term. I’ve seen this scenario floated by the MSM a few times now, planting the seed and seeing how it grows.
Trump’s got this thing.
The deep state wants Trump to win because his entire history shows that as long as he feels that he’s won the negotiation and therefore has gained what he wanted out of the negotiation he’s a known factor that can be controlled.
Whereas Hillary has become a total and complete nutcase who truly believes that she can do whatever she wants, whenever she wants, regardless of who says she cannot. Therefore she can’t be controlled because you can’t trust anyone who is completely insane.
Either way the country is completely fucked. But Trump allows for a more smooth, level and slow fuckjob, with far fewer wild and unpredictable fluctuations.