Weeks ago, we published a flow chart that showed all U.S. energy consumption from 2015 in one giant diagram.
This is a great tool for understanding a static picture of U.S. energy consumption – it breaks down the energy sources, as well as the details about where the energy ultimately flows. It also shows that a large amount of energy potential, about 61%, is inevitably “wasted” due to the laws of physics as well as inefficient processes.
However, because it is a static view of one year, it ends up doing a poor job of encapsulating how the energy sector is shifting. This week’s chart shows the changing landscape for different energy sources in the United States.
Examining the Shift in U.S. Energy Consumption
As a starting point, based on the aforementioned diagram of energy usage, let’s look at the composition of the energy mix:
- Oil: 36%
- Natural gas: 29%
- Coal: 16%
- Renewables: 10%
- Nuclear: 9%
Now, let’s look at the rate of change of these broad categories between 2014 and 2015 according to the EIA:
- Oil: +2%
- Natural gas: +3%
- Coal: -12%
- Renewables: +1%
- Nuclear: 0%
On a macro level, the first obvious note is that coal consumption dropped rapidly in 2015. This, along with other factors, is why many people are declaring that coal is dead.
Another interesting observation is that renewables only increased by 1% in consumption. This seems strange, considering that there is such hype around things like the Tesla Gigafactory and the surging demand for lithium-ion batteries. Diving a bit deeper will provide an explanation for this.
Renewable Energy
There are five main components that make up U.S. renewable energy: solar, wind, hydro, geothermal, and biomass.
The biggest sub-sector is biomass, which made up about 43% of all renewable usage in the United States in 2015. Hydro is also significant, as it is 27% of the renewable total. However, as you will see, consumption in biomass and hydro dropped between 2014 and 2015:
- Biomass: -5%
- Hydro: -4%
- Wind: +5%
- Solar: +31%
- Geothermal: +4%
Even though the biomass and hydro consumption dropped, the future of renewables is in good hands. In particular, it has been the miraculous change in the price per watt of solar energy that has changed the landscape. Solar energy consumption, even though it is a relatively small number compared to other energy sources, increased by 31% in 2015.
As a final point, here is the data and projections going out to 2017 for the main renewable sources, according to the EIA. Note that solar’s CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is 39% between 2013 and the projected 2017 number.
Renewable energy consumption (Quadrillion Btu, 2015)
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016e | 2017e | CAGR (2013-2017) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Solar | 0.31 | 0.42 | 0.55 | 0.66 | 0.82 | 39% |
| Geothermal | 0.21 | 0.21 | 0.22 | 0.23 | 0.23 | 3% |
| Wind | 1.60 | 1.73 | 1.81 | 2.08 | 2.26 | 12% |
| Hydro | 2.56 | 2.47 | 2.39 | 2.57 | 2.52 | -1% |
| Biomass | 3.76 | 3.93 | 3.77 | 3.74 | 3.75 | 0% |
Aggressive marketing to the general public for solar, especially rooftop panels, caused the surge in installation.
Market saturation for homeowners may have already occurred; i.e., solar may have already hit the wall. Expect SCTY to drop.
I would never put panels on a roof.
Aggressive marketing combined with taxpayer paid subsidies.
I read a number of stories that indicate these giant eyesore windmills are not a viable, longterm energy source due to a relatively short service life and high maintenance costs. A number of companies are quietly selling their interest in them as a result.
A 31% increase in solar over four years seems a bit optimistic to me.
There are going to be far fewer humans on Earf in the next decade or two so our energy requirements should be going down.
In the five years NG will be up +10 % on top of the three percent increase you see today and that will be globally. The US will be the biggest supplier to the world so the big question is what will “we the people” get out of the deal as they sell off our resources ?
Oregon does not consider Hydro “renewable” when they mandated a 25% renewable energy supply requirement by 2025.
Hydro supplies 40+%
The hippies along the I-5 corridor are trying to kill the remaining coal plants and are even removing some of the smaller dams on some of the more minor rivers.
It is madness, it will lead to even higher rates. If the hippies had their way, they would remove all the huge capital dams on the Columbia and Snake rivers. Then shudder the remaining coal plants and the last nuke plant up in Wash. state.
I personally like to flip a switch and have the lights come on. These degrowther throwbacks need to move to fucking Africa and experience nature in her full non-discriminatory manner.