Calculated Risk http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/ is the best place to get the real truth about the housing market. Below is a shocking revelation. The NAR has been overstating existing home sales for years at a clip of 10% to 15%. If they can only work their way up to 25%, they would qualify to work for the Federal Government.
In other breaking news the NAR has declared “NOW IS THE BEST TIME TO BUY A HOUSE!!!”
This organization is a disgrace. It started with their chief lying economist David Lereah who continually argued that the housing market was not in a bubble and that it was the best time to buy in 2005. Who could ever forget his 2005 classic book Are You Missing the Real Estate Boom?: Why Home Values and Other Real Estate Investments Will Climb Through The End of The Decade—And How to Profit From Them.
Larry Yun, the current lying mouthpiece for a corrupt organization, continues the tradition. And now we find out that no only do they spew false propaganda, but they fake their own data to make the housing market appear stronger than it is. Shocking. I can’t believe that whores can also be liars.
Pending Home Sales index increases 2% in December
by CalculatedRisk on 1/27/2011 10:00:00 AM
Special Note: I’ve been discussing the National Association of Realtors (NAR) existing home sales data with several analysts. As an example, Keith Jurow has been sending me data from local areas, and also calculations based on data from Inside Mortgage Finance suggesting that the NAR existing home sales data is overstating sales. I’ve also looked at other sources, and I think the NAR started over estimating sales in 2006 or 2007 (perhaps by 5% or so in 2007), and the errors have increased since then (perhaps 10% or 15% or more in 2009 and 2010). I expect the NAR will revise down sales for these years in the not too distant future (I’m hearing whispers of coming revisions – but I haven’t been able to confirm this with the NAR).
From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Continue Uptrend
The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator, increased 2.0 percent to 93.7 based on contracts signed in December from a downwardly revised 91.9 in November [revised down from 92.2]. The index is 4.2 percent below the 97.8 mark in December 2009. The data reflects contracts and not closings, which normally occur with a lag time of one or two months.
This suggests existing home sales in January and February will be somewhat higher than in December, although – based on mortgage applications – I think we might see a slight decline in sales.
Smokey says:
You don’t see too many of those real estate infomercials on television nowadays. There are still a couple, though. The one I used to get a kick out of was Carlton Sheets.
The setting for his infomercial would typically be some plush resort, next to a swimming pool and the ocean, with a breeze blowing in.
That greedy cocksucker would profile a hot dame without a fucking brain in her head. She’d explain how she just made $210,000 in three months following Carlton’s PROVEN system. And Sheet’s would ALWAYS ask those “successful ” investors, “How did that make you feel to have that much spendable cash ?”
Like they are going to answer, on the air, “Frankly, Carlton, it made me feel like shit. Because I fucking hate money. That’s why I signed up for your system in the first place.”
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27th January 2011 at 5:53 pm
Welshman says:
Admin.,
They learned to lie from our government. Real Estate was the greatest bubble in the history of mankind, and many made lots of money, if they were not over leveraged and had a chair when the music stopped.
People in sales and government do lie, that is how they make a living. The troubling thing is, many people don’t understand they are being lied to. They take lies at face valve and let the good times role. That is why the TBP will grow, more people see the lies.
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27th January 2011 at 6:34 pm
llpoh says:
Yep. Like a realtor is going to say “for sure you will be able to buy this house 20 percent cheaper in 3 months”.
If they told the truth they would all be out of a job overnight. The whole industry would collapse. We wouldn’t want that, now, would we?
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27th January 2011 at 6:38 pm
Reverse Engineer says:
Wanna go Double or Nothing on my 80% from the top Price Collapse bet?
RE
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27th January 2011 at 6:45 pm
llpoh says:
Welshman – some salemen lie, especially in real estate/mortgage lending / etc. However, if you want to be successful in the long term the secret to sales is to be honest and reliable and to not push product, but rather discover what the customer needs and see if you can fill the need.
By the way, I noticed your comment re “kissing ass” the other day. Don’t know that I have ever had cause to rattle your cage before, and didn’t have time to respond then. You got something to say to me say it direct. Next time don’t be such a cowardly low-life piece of shit pussy asswipe. I am more than happy to torch your ass any time you feel froggy.
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27th January 2011 at 6:46 pm
llpoh says:
RE – aint gonna happen. Aint gonna happen. You really need to get a grip. Still talking about a fall of about 70 percent from today’s prices.
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27th January 2011 at 6:48 pm
Reverse Engineer says:
“the long term the secret to sales is to be honest and reliable and to not push product, but rather discover what the customer needs and see if you can fill the need. ” LLPOH
You have been drinking the Kool Aid for far too long there dude. Everybody on Wall Street knows the way to earning Fuck You Money is to rip off as many customers as you can and then stick it to the taxpayer, in the tried and true method of Capitalism since it was born along with the Bank of England and the British East India Company.
RE
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27th January 2011 at 6:50 pm
Administrator says:
I’ll declare you the winner when my home value drops below my mortgage balance.
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27th January 2011 at 7:00 pm
StuckInNJ says:
llpoh — The life of a Realtor
1. You list a house for 7% commission
2. Another realtor sells it — as is almost always the case
3. Split the commission — you’re down to 3.5%
4. The broker gets at least 1% – 1.5% — you’re down to 2%
5. Other office fees and expenses will eat up most of what’s left — you’re lucky to gross 1% – 1.5%
6. Taxes eat up more
It’s a generally shitty dog-eat-dog “career”. ” Honesty” doesn’t pay the bills … so they do what they gotta do to get the sale.
I’ve known literally hundreds of realtors. The majority are shady bastards.
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27th January 2011 at 7:04 pm
llpoh says:
RE – as always you can (and do) find examples that support your case. However, you really do not know anything. Ia am not talking about a few thousand corrupt bankers. I am talking about millions of salesmen throughout the country that behave in an honorable fashion. They include newsagents, local auto salesmen, harware store owners and employees, etc. I know a bit about sales and what it takes to secure and retain long-term customers. You have no idea. Yes there are those that grab and run. I said long-term, and meant long-term. Integrity still exists in the US – a lot more than you seem to understand.
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27th January 2011 at 7:08 pm
llpoh says:
Stuck – I prefaced my comments by saying realtors can’t survive by being honest at the moment. My comments are relative to sales in general – and apply even to real estate in the long run. The long term success of salespeople depends on repeat business and word of mouth recommendation. Shysters do not survive as a rule.
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27th January 2011 at 7:11 pm
Kill Bill says:
Its rather sad when used care salesman look much like realtors. [not directed at SiNj]
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27th January 2011 at 7:17 pm
Administrator says:
llpoh
Shysters thrive on Wall Street and in DC
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27th January 2011 at 7:19 pm
Matt says:
I actually like the realtor who helped me sell my house last year. She was hard-working and a pit-bull with other realtors who she thought were full of shit. We listed my house a little under the rest of the houses in my area and actually closed within 90 days. Here’s why I like her, she told me to rent if possible for the next 12-24 months and she would call me if she found something too good to pass up. I gave her card to a few friends because I like her style and honesty.
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27th January 2011 at 7:51 pm
llpoh says:
RE – you telling me about how I am wrong about sales/manufacturing would be like me telling SSS he is wrong about how to do security work. I have made a successful career out of this stuff. I have decades invested in study and work experience. There are many areas where I keep my mouth shut as I deem it better to defer to those who know more. You seem to have no such compunction. It is better to stand silent and be thought a fool than to open your mouth. You might remember that sometime.
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27th January 2011 at 7:57 pm
Smokey says:
llpoh—-RE doesn’t know dick about sales.
His sorry ass couldn’t sell pussy in prison on Nickel Day.
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27th January 2011 at 8:04 pm
Jmarz says:
Smokey
That is fucking hilarious. Where do you come up with this stuff? I’m laughing my ass off.
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27th January 2011 at 8:34 pm
Jmarz says:
Llpoh
I agree with you completely on your take on successful selling. I’ve been in sales since I was 19 and Ive done well doing it the honest way. Integrity, persistence, and reliability has contributed to my sales success. Cheaters and liars may get a sale or two but that is all they get. I don’t worry about this kind of competition because I know they will be here today and probably gone tomorrow.
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27th January 2011 at 8:41 pm
Reverse Engineer says:
“Integrity still exists in the US”-LLPOH
You should write for the MSM. Even if a few small bizmen had integrity, the currency they are using has no integrity, therefore they now have no integrity since you cannot do business without using a currency with no integrity.
As far as it being rewarding to be one of the millions of “honest” salesmen, does that apply to all the RE salesmen who sold houses on LIAR loans and all the mortgage brokers who pushed the loans through?
You live in a fantasy world my friend. The world of honesty being rewarded has been disappearing around you and you just bury your head in the sand and refuse to believe it. Dishonesty is what Pays, and Pays the Biggest. Just ask Jamie Dimon, JD Rockefeller and Mayer Rothschild.
RE
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27th January 2011 at 8:46 pm
llpoh says:
Jmarz – thanks. I have seen it myself – do what is right and you get long-term gain. Mr. RE is right that some things aren’t as they once were. I still have faith in the Amaerican people in general, and believe they are honest folk. Unfortunately too many have forgotten basics.
Good post Smokey!
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27th January 2011 at 9:16 pm
SSS says:
LLPOH ” I still have faith in the American people in general, and believe they are honest folk.”
Me, too.
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27th January 2011 at 9:38 pm
Welshman says:
llpoh,
Nothing personal, I have great respect for most of your posts, and I agree sometimes with RE and tell him so.
I was teasing RE, as two positive posts in the same day from the same person, only re-enforces a 10 pages response.
I have not notice too many “ass kissers” on TBP – LOL, especially towards RE, as he works sometimes overboard, but I like him.
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27th January 2011 at 10:05 pm
Opinionated Bloviator says:
RE, when the dust settles the drop will be more of a 90-95% from peak. Economic implosions ram down the price of real estate to what people can afford. In a nation with 30% unemployment singing – I’ve got the (1930′s) Obama blues, who is going to have the money to buy housing at anything like todays prices?
Real estate in Argentina, Zimbabwe and Somalia is cheap… there’s a reason for that.
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27th January 2011 at 10:13 pm
llpoh says:
Welshman – I grovel at your feet and beg forgiveness. Please allow me to unrattle the cage. Anyone with an affinity to RE must of course realize they are susceptible to the odd burst of friendly fire. I have permanently engraved your name on the good guys side of the ledger.
Please consider your ass kissed.
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27th January 2011 at 10:28 pm
Reverse Engineer says:
@OB
I go with 80% to play it safe. I agree 90-95% is possible. JimQ & LLPOH maintain that “foreign investors” will jump in and buy all the great “investment” properties when it drops to even 80%, so this is where the over/under bid is.
RE
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27th January 2011 at 11:47 pm
English Rose says:
Just out of interest, what will said “foreign investors” do with the great “investment” properties when prices continue to collapse?
Pay for the property, pay the fees and commission, pay the property taxes, pay for repairs and ongoing maintenance of the property, pay a landscape gardener………….
and sit back and watch the value of their “piece of shit property in a failed state” continue to decline. Brilliant.
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27th January 2011 at 1:34 am
Novista says:
RE
Were you channeling Loughner before?
ER
The ‘foreign investors’ are prolly a SWF using US$. By the time the housing market bottoms, so will the $.
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27th January 2011 at 7:34 am
English Rose says:
Novista
By the time the housing market bottoms……
so will civilisation in the United States.
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27th January 2011 at 8:55 am
Funny signs, blistering attack on the NAR | For What It’s Worth says:
[...] An anonymous reader sent along this link. Well worth reading. [...]
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27th January 2011 at 9:27 am
DexterMorgan says:
In other breaking news the NAR has declared “NOW IS THE BEST TIME TO BUY A HOUSE!!!”
To the NAR, it’s always a great time to buy a house….there’ salespeople (they have a vested interest in real estate sales..)
Housing market collapses…what do they say ?…”Buy now….housing prices have never been cheapr !…they won’t stay this low much longer”
Houseing marker is soaring….what do they say..? “Buy now…housing prices are only going up….!!!!”
There could be a nuclear war….what would they..? “Buy now….there’s an incredible housing shortage….prices are only going to go up…!”
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27th January 2011 at 11:36 am
Administrator says:
Based on this impartial analysis, the NAR has overstated home sales by 1.7 million in 2007 through 2009. No one goes to jail for this?
To give one an idea of what such a revision might ultimately look like, below is a table showing the NAR’s estimate for existing home sales from 2006 to 2009 versus CoreLogic’s count of existing home sales from its property records database. Full year 2010 data from CL are not yet available; in addition, CL’s data for the past several months (through October) will be revised upward as new data from county recorders become available. (The CL data include “normal” existing home sales, REO sales, and short sales). Also shown are “grossed-up” CL estimates assuming that the NAR’s existing home sales estimate were “correct,” [in 2006] which would imply that CL’s database covers about 84.25% of total existing home transactions. That assumption, of course, may not be correct, but I’m showing the data that way anyway.
Existing Home Sales (thousands)
Year NAR CoreLogic Grossed-up CoreLogic
2006 6,478 5,458 6,478
2007 5,652 4,465 5,299
2008 4,913 3,720 4,415
2009 5,156 3,641 4,321
One reason for the NAR/property records sales estimates gaps appears to be that since 2006 there was a cyclical increase in the share of home sales through local MLS. This reflects both the greater difficulty sellers had in selling homes, as well as the increased use of the internet by buyers in their home search.
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27th January 2011 at 4:15 pm
llpoh says:
English Rose – what will the investors do that buy houses for 30K? They will rent them out. Or they will sit on them empty. The chinese own empty homes all over the world even now. Don’t be so stupid.
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27th January 2011 at 4:50 pm
Realtors Are Liars says:
Realtors Are Liars
~Realtors Are Liars of thehouingbubbleblog and huffingtonpost
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27th January 2011 at 9:53 am