Continuing on here with the Theme of the Last Crusade, in this Installment I am going to analyze the underpinning of the battle we are engaged in here, which as I see it is one which pits Technological Progress against a reversion to the mean of sustainable technologies. The factual stuff I posted verbatim from MSM sources and the Blogosphere in Part II of this series with respect to the direct consequences of these choices speaks for itself in terms of what is happening right now in the M.E. My purpose in writing on TBP and Reverse Engineering is to look at the driving forces which underpin the choices that we make as individuals and as a society. By looking at the real consequences as we travel down the Collapse Highway, it is my hope that what I write can help individuals make better choices to help insure their own survival and that of their loved ones. I write to inform with my own view of how our civilization developed and where it is likely to go. It is a personal view based on my own life experience and my own choices. I leave it to the reader to decide how much of what I write is valid, and what is not. If you CHOOSE to read what follows, it is up to you to consider its validity with respect to your own life and those you care for.
As I mentioned in Part I, the Battle which is developing here is not so much one of Islam v. Christianity or even the Haves v. the Have Nots, but one of perpetuating the Industrial paradigm v. REVERSE ENGINEERING back to a lower Energy Footprint for Human Civilization. This is a concept most people in the Western World refuse to consider as the necessary outcome of our currently Collapsing Model.
For people immersed in our Energy dependent society who do accept the Peak Oil hypothesis but wish to see our society continue to develop along this paradigm, for the most part they hang their hopes on the development of Nuke Power. I have written before extensively on why I do not believe Nuke Power can substitute for liquid fuels derived from fossil resources, I am not going to rehash those arguments here in this post. If we go off on that tangent I’ll rehearse them as necessary in the dialogue which follows.
A smaller percentage of people (on TBP anyhow) hang their hopes on forms of Renewable Energy like Wind, Hydro and Geothermal power. While I do believe we should attempt to rev up in these areas, I don’t believe they can generate enough power in the near term to substitute on a Kilowatt for Kilowatt, Joule for Joule, Calorie for Calorie (yes, Food is Energy measured in Calories convertible mathematically to Joules or Kilowatts) basis to substitute for employing fossil fuel Energy to do Work, so even if you do ramp them up, you still have to move toward much lower energy and power consumption overall. Please remember your basic Physics here, which is that Power is Force distributed out over Time, the two are integrally related, and Power and Work are synonymous concepts. Also remember how Entropy fits into Thermodynamic balance, and that all systems that do not have an Energy input move toward greater Disorder. Dependence on GREAT Energy to maintain Order in a complex system means that once that energy is no longer available, the complex system MUST fall into greater disorder. This is PHYSICAL LAW that cannot be denied. Our complex energy dependent society MUST fall into disorder without the input of great quantities of energy. You cannot wish that away.
If you take a Time Trip with Sherman back in Mr. Peabody’s Wayback Machine, it was realized at the very beginning of the Industrial Revolution that coming to depend on the Energy of Fossil Fuels and the Machines they powered was a MISTAKE. The Luddite movement was composed of people who worked in tasks like Weaving Cloth, who were displaced out of their work by Industrial Looms powered by Oil. These folks were so unhappy about this that they went about destroying the Machinery until they themselves were destroyed.
The Amish also foreswore the use of thermodynamically powered Machinery, for Religious based principles on the inherent value of Human Labor, based on the Biblical injunction that People must actually WORK for their daily bread, in the real sense of the word which is Physical Labor. Sitting at a Bloomberg Terminal and Naked Short selling somebody’s currency would NOT count as Work for an Amish person, obviously.
Even BEFORE the Amish and the Luddites and even BEFORE the Industrial Revolution however, another group of Religious Fanatics foreswore against Progress at any Cost, and they pretty much stopped their development in the 7th Century. Today, we know this group of people as Muslims, the followers of Islam and their Prophet Mohammed. The result of this for them was that as Western Society progressed through the Enlightenment and developed Industrialization, they got stuck with being the perpetual Have Nots in the world that came to be.
Even once Industrialization took serious hold on the world and the Muslims found themselves sitting on top of the world’s biggest supply of the Lifeblood Oil of Industrial civilization, they chose not to Industrialize. Rather, they simply sold off the resource to the Western Illuminati, which allowed the Ruling Class of Islamic society to become immensely wealthy while the general population remained mired in deep poverty and eventual Dependency.
Further to the East in Asia, another path was taken very late in the Industrialization Game, where the basically Agrarian populations became Industrial level Slaves in order to hopefully partake of the “benefits” of industrialization. For the most part, coming in a Day Late and a Yuan Short here to this game, the main Benefit they got was an extremely Polluted environment and massive Population Overshoot. A few Chinese Oligarchs running this very large Slave Labor paradigm also became immensely Wealthy, but they now have the same problem the M.E. Sheiks have, which is a HUGE population of the Underclass which will Revolt when they have nothing left to lose, since they are going to be Starving in the Economic sense, unable to Buy Food they no longer produce themselves.
For the populations of the First World, for the moment they still remain in the Catbird Seat, as long as they are able to keep the Oil flowing into the Industrial Food apparatus centered in the heart of the best Ag Land left on the Planet, which is the Grain Belt of the Midwestern FSofA. However, the fact said Oil for the most part has to be Imported from areas of the world where as we speak many people are already facing Economic Starvation means that keeping said Oil flowing will be increasingly more difficult, and even if managed through War and Genocide it still has an eventual termination date not that far into the future. So eventually and likely sooner rather than later the very same problems of feeding the population 3rd world countries currently have will also hit the 1st World countries.
In ALL the cases, 1st World and 3rd World (whatever happened to 2nd World?), Power Down is Coming Soon to their Theatres. The only real choices now are in how that Power Down is managed, or in the more likely case, NOT managed but rather fought against until the battle is inevitably lost. In Part II of ths series, I was accused as “favoring” a Holocaust by having the temerity to suggest that we should make such systems as HVAC (an example I gave as a highly energy dependent system we need to lose) Illegal. I maintain precisely the opposite is the case. By utilizing remaining energy resources in this manner, we condemn FAR more people to near term DEATH than we do if we utilize that energy to maintain our Food Supply as long as possible. Like the Amish and like the Luddites, I believe in the value of Human Labor and I think that becoming Dependent on Fossil Fuels to do our work for us is the proximal cause for the current collapse of our civilization, now in progress and rapidly accelerating. I look for ways we could transition back to a lower energy footprint with the least amount of Human Suffering possible. That there will be IMMENSE suffering is without question, mostly it now is a question of who will suffer the most and whether a few people will continue to live high on the hog while MANY people suffer immensely; or whether we can distribute out the pain so that all people only suffer as much as is necessary to suffer in order to REVERSE ENGINEER to a lower energy footprint on the planet.
Might it have been different had we not made the Discoveries we did resulting from the Enlightenment, leading to Industrialization? Yes and No. Yes in the sense that we never would have gone so far into Population Overshoot as we have gone now. No in the sense that even just with Agriculture as it was practiced through to 1750, eventually the Grain belt of the FSofA would have suffered the same fate the Ag Land did down in the “Fertile Crescent” of the Middle East, where Civilization of the Ag Sense began. Eventual depletion of the resource over a few millennia. Prior to the “discovery” of the New World by the Europeans in the 15th Century, the Old World had already reached a Maxima, with Plagues and Famines taking down the population and keeping it relatively steady state at around 500M for that land mass. Completely populating the New World under the same paradigm, perhaps we might have grown to 800M before running into similar problems. However, under that paradigm, that 800M would have lasted a whole lot longer than the 6.3B that EXPLODED onto the surface of the Earth once the Thermodynamic Energy of Fossil Fuels was accessed.
It is of course true that regardless of the paradigm, Homo Sapiens and in fact all life on this planet faces a Termination Date, when the Sun goes Red Giant and fries the planet to a crisp. On the assumption its better to live a longer life than a short one though, better Stewardship of the Planet and its resources would have enabled a longer lifespan than we will get as a result of walking down the path of Industrialization, and in fact Agriculture as well. Perhaps God designed us as a species to Burn Brightly for a brief period, to “Live Fast, Die Young and Leave a Good Looking Corpse” as the saying goes. If that is so, then following along the paradigm here we have engaged in will most certainly follow God’s Plan. It did not HAVE to be this way though, and it still does not, although making the choices necessary to allow for a more lengthy inhabitance of this planet are unlikely to be made at this point on the aggregate level of Global society. Individually however, you still have the choice available here to attempt to extend out your OWN life and that of your progeny somewhat, by attempting to avoid the worst of the near term dislocations likely to occur as the Conduits of Industrial society fall into failure mode. Some of you have more ability than others to attempt that, if you’re more economically well off and have not already fallen off the economic cliff. I pass out my advice here on how to do that, advice I follow myself for the most part so it is not hypocrisy to do that. Your choice to follow this advice or not. You may not like the Message I deliver of Impending Doom in the relatively near future, you may think I am wrong and so not choose to follow the advice, again this is your choice. I am not forcing anyone to read my stuff or to follow the advice. I am just calling it as I see it.
See You on the Other Side.
RE
Yojimbo says:
RE et al
This is an excellent summation of the history of the world’s major cultures vis-a-vis industrialization. It is also one of the few articles of yours I’ve fully read from beginning to end.
You have a perspective you’ve obviously developed for many years, and when you combine it with brevity you elevate your writing.
Kudos.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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30th January 2011 at 7:46 pm
Iowan says:
RE – You might be interested in this blog: http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com/
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30th January 2011 at 7:56 pm
Reverse Engineer says:
Thanks Yojimbo.
I think the difference is the Pictures, the last time I did a Multi Media post in a Tale of Two Depressions http://www.theburningplatform.com/?p=9281, people who complain about the length of my prose like Stuck read that one through also. Its no shorter than usual, but the pictures make it seem so I think.
Anyhow, yes I have been thinking about this stuff for quite a number of years, though it really began to crystallize for me in 2007 after Bear Stearns collapsed. Since then I have been engaged in MANY debates on these topics, mostly on the pages of Peak Oil for the first year or so. I know just about all the arguments people will present now to try and hold up their personal view/hope that we can continue living the technological life, and I have counter arguments for all of them.
As I see it, we will either power down or go extinct. Homo Industrialis is going the way of the Dinosaur.
RE
Hot debate. What do you think?
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30th January 2011 at 7:57 pm
Kill Bill says:
My purpose in writing on TBP and Reverse Engineering is to look at the driving forces which underpin the choices that we make as individuals and as a society -RE
Okay, one step at a time. First, lets reverse engineer the statement.
What choices is it that you write of that we make as individuals.
What choices is it that you write of that we make as a society.
Often these are diametrically opposed.
IE the underpinning driving forces will also be opposed. For instance you have moved to a remote region, as a personal choice, to avoid choices of society, which you have basically left behind other than to engage it from afar.
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30th January 2011 at 8:26 pm
Iowan says:
RE –
You also leave out the 1st (Modern) Agricultural Revolution. While there would inevitably be some loss in N. American farm output after the prairies were subjugated, the crop rotation system devised in the 1700′s in Europe really helped out feeding people. Not that it can feed as many people as the current fossil-fueled agricultural system, but the fossil-fueled system also wastes a lot of energy on producing large quantities of animal biomass. If smaller, less energy intensive protein was our goal it would be easy to support more people. I would expect the total harvest to drop back to pre-Green Revolution levels with the loss of fossil fuels, which would be around 1/5 of the current level.
Though I can’t say what total yield loss will be when the pumps stop pumping the Ogallala Aquifer. Agriculture is pretty hard-scrabble when you get west of a N/S line crossing near Lincoln, Nebraska, which can be taken as the line where to the east you have rain-fed ag and to the west, fossil water extraction to support yields in dry years.
The biggest worry in post-fossil fueled ag will be loss of soil, since soil holds your nutrients like Phosphorus and Potassium. These are much harder to replace than Nitrogen, since the air is 79% nitrogen, and N is fixed by bacteria associated with beans and other legumes. The smart farmer would spend his capital now while the fossil fuel is cheap to put in terraces where his land is rolling.
Of course the biggest problem will be to distribute the population out of the big cities to the farmland…
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30th January 2011 at 8:30 pm
Reverse Engineer says:
Absolutely there is opposition between the personal choice to move away as far as possible from the denter of collapse and the choices the society as a whole is making which COME from the center, since this is a centrally controlled paradigm. The whole nation-state concept is a centrally controlled idea.
Now, if you’re on a Beach in Indonesia, and you see the water on the beach recede a half a mile in the course of a few minutes, are you going to hang around on the beach to see what comes after that? Only if you are a fucking idiot would you do that. The Beach is Ground Zero for the oncoming Tsunami!
So, if you see Oil receding from the shorelines of NYC, Boston and Philadelphia, are you going to hang around in the Big Shitty to see what comes down the pipe when the sewage treatment plants go off line and the lights go out? Only if you are a fucking idiot would you do that.
I am not fucking idiot. I see the waterline receding, RAPIDLY. I did not wait around for the Tsunami. Common fucking sense.
RE
Hot debate. What do you think?
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30th January 2011 at 8:36 pm
Reverse Engineer says:
@Iowan
As I said in a prior post, I am all for dropping Beef/Pig farming and feed lots for Shrimp Aquaculture and Earthworm Farms for animal protein sources at a much lower energy input cost. I also think with intensive permaculture farming that soil depletion problems can be minimized and this paradigm could be made to run for a very long time while the population shrank gradually down to supportable levels on a pay as you go basis. What the absolute number of people is that we can feed without gradual depletion is I do not know, but I am quite sure its nowhere near the 6.3B currently living on the planet.
The goal here would be to manage the power down and equitably distribute out remaining resources so that we minimize the dislocation people will suffer and hopefully let them live out their natural lives, although clearly at a lower standard of living than people in the 1st World have been used to. The issue is First Worlders don’t want to give up the SUVs and McMansions and Jet Skis and HVAC and live like Afghani Peasants and Tribesmen. So in order to maintain this lifestyle, we just gotta have their Oil and they can’t afford to buy Food. This will not fly for long.
RE
Hot debate. What do you think?
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30th January 2011 at 8:48 pm
Kill Bill says:
Doomer: Everyone move to the frontier to survive!
Gloomer: Move to the frontier and I will shoot your ass!
Now, I propose to look at the underpinning of societal choices
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30th January 2011 at 9:21 pm
Reverse Engineer says:
@KB
The deal there is one of timing. Trying to Head for the Hills post-collapse is a whole heck of a lot harder than heading out pre-collapse. You need time to make connections and friends with the locals. Post-collapse outsiders will be viewed with suspicion.
Anyhow, since you propose to look at the underpininning of societal choices, I am curious as to what you think they are and how they reflect on your personal choices.
RE
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30th January 2011 at 9:29 pm
LLPOH says:
As the words keep flowing, this has become standard issue in the lower 48:
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30th January 2011 at 9:31 pm
Reverse Engineer says:
LLPOH at a recent Tea Bagger rally:
RE
Hot debate. What do you think?
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30th January 2011 at 9:39 pm
Kill Bill says:
No, RE, you claimed to be looking at those underpinnings, not I.
The burden of proof is in your court.
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30th January 2011 at 9:39 pm
flash says:
Worm might make nice snack , but for satisfying meal….Um..Um..
BTW, good post RE.
And with enough pics to aid Stuck-wad in reading along.
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30th January 2011 at 9:39 pm
Kill Bill says:
Anyhow, since you propose to look at the underpininning of societal choices -RE
WITF?
YOU said that is your reason to post here.
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30th January 2011 at 9:42 pm
LLPOH says:
RE responds to news that capitalism has not succumbed to his tirades:
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30th January 2011 at 9:42 pm
LLPOH says:
Punk weighs in to the argument:
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30th January 2011 at 9:44 pm
Reverse Engineer says:
@KB
The Societal Choice would be between a conscious Power Down v. trying to keep the Industrialized model sputtering along. Read for comprehension there buddy.
RE
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30th January 2011 at 9:46 pm
Reverse Engineer says:
LLPOH’s pigged out cat
RE
Well-loved. Like or Dislike:
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30th January 2011 at 9:49 pm
LLPOH says:
Smokey is tied up but sends his regards:
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30th January 2011 at 9:49 pm
Kill Bill says:
LLPOH, IMO, is a true capitalist in that he gives a good wage and produces a good product and hires as many as he can without greed.
I agree with that.
Those that call themselves capitalists that create innovative and complex wording to a piece of paper to extract wealth from others, without actually creating jobs, is NOT capitalism.
Well-loved. Like or Dislike:
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30th January 2011 at 9:50 pm
Reverse Engineer says:
@Stuck
Yea, I notice you like my posts a lot more when I add Pictures. Same length post, but you don’t complain if I sprinkle in the pics. LOL.
RE
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30th January 2011 at 9:51 pm
The Watchdog says:
Good post.
Completely agree that population overshoot has exceeded the carrying capacity of the planet.
Also agree that the laws of Thermodynamics will dicatate our future of greater simplicity and lower energy consumption. Fossil fuel reserves were a one time deal that is half over.
Out of sheer necessity, we will migrate to a “pay as you go” system of energy consuption based on renewables sources which will be a fraction of our current consumption.
Still hoping we can manage our descent on an individual basis to avoid the Mad Max scenario, but only time will tell.
Live each day to the fullest. We are all on borrowed time independent of the peak oil phenomenon.
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30th January 2011 at 9:51 pm
Reverse Engineer says:
Got the model KB. Goes like this:
RE
Hot debate. What do you think?
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30th January 2011 at 9:53 pm
Kill Bill says:
The Societal Choice would be between a conscious Power Down v. trying to keep the Industrialized model sputtering along. Read for comprehension there buddy. -RE
As a member of society I would do neither.
You type quickly, but fail at wearing others shoes.
I suggest slowing down for qualities sake.
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30th January 2011 at 9:53 pm
Reverse Engineer says:
@LLPOH
My Condolences on the Death of your Philosophy
RE
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30th January 2011 at 9:57 pm
Reverse Engineer says:
@KB
You have a 3rd option here?
RE
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30th January 2011 at 9:58 pm
Kill Bill says:
Got the model KB. Goes like this: -RE
Clearly some words have lost their definition
The cartoon you posted, as true as it is in regards to today, is not capitalism in the true sense of the word. That, I say, is robber baronism.
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30th January 2011 at 9:58 pm
LLPOH says:
Which system would you rather have, this:
or this:
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30th January 2011 at 10:01 pm
Reverse Engineer says:
RE
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30th January 2011 at 10:01 pm
Kill Bill says:
@KB You have a 3rd option here?
Capitalism didnt die it was replaced by a system of accounting entries being debt and credit.
IE overleveraging where small bits of capital have backed credit it cannot possibly support. Its like an inverted pyramid.
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30th January 2011 at 10:03 pm
Reverse Engineer says:
RE
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30th January 2011 at 10:05 pm
LLPOH says:
May we merely direct your attention to Smurf Village, where everyone shares everything, wears similar utilitarian clothing, battles Gargamel and his turn-Smurfs-to-gold get rich quick schemes and obeys the dictates of a bearded, red hat-wearing, benevolent authority figure. Quoth Comrade Papa: “From each according to his abilities, to each according to his needs.”
Smurf Village – RE’s utopia:
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30th January 2011 at 10:06 pm
Reverse Engineer says:
@KB
No a 3rd option to Power Down or trying to prop up the Industrial Model.
RE
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30th January 2011 at 10:07 pm
Kill Bill says:
No a 3rd option to Power Down or trying to prop up the Industrial Model. -RE
I dont need a third option. You do.
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30th January 2011 at 10:10 pm
Reverse Engineer says:
REs Utopia
RE
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30th January 2011 at 10:11 pm
Kill Bill says:
What is your third option RE?
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30th January 2011 at 10:11 pm
Reverse Engineer says:
@KB
No I don’t. I am fine with Power down. It is you that wrote you will “choose neither”. Thus you must have a 3rd option.
RE
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30th January 2011 at 10:12 pm
LLPOH says:
RE tries to save his manuscript from another discerning critic:
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30th January 2011 at 10:17 pm
Reverse Engineer says:
RE
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30th January 2011 at 10:17 pm
Kill Bill says:
No I don’t. I am fine with Power down. It is you that wrote you will “choose neither”. Thus you must have a 3rd option. -RE
You wrote about it earlier.
D E A T H
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30th January 2011 at 10:18 pm
Reverse Engineer says:
RE
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30th January 2011 at 10:20 pm
Kill Bill says:
Capitalism in the true sense is fine, but when wealth gets involved in government it becomes something else, that which our forefathers sought to be free from.
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30th January 2011 at 10:22 pm
Reverse Engineer says:
@KB
So you would choose to walk into the Great Beyond? Fair enough, I am just trying to avoid that for a bit longer.
RE
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30th January 2011 at 10:22 pm
Reverse Engineer says:
RE
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30th January 2011 at 10:24 pm
Kill Bill says:
I did not say that was my choice it was a third thing YOU wrote of RE
See you on the other side, as you say
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30th January 2011 at 10:26 pm
Reverse Engineer says:
LLPOH’s Utopia
RE
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30th January 2011 at 10:28 pm
LLPOH says:
What RE will get if he has his way:
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30th January 2011 at 10:29 pm
Reverse Engineer says:
@KB
No, I presented only 2 choices, no third option. You said you would choose neither, which implies a third option. Then you articulated that option is Death.
RE
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30th January 2011 at 10:30 pm
LLPOH says:
Capitalism:
RE’s future:
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30th January 2011 at 10:32 pm
Reverse Engineer says:
@LLPOH
We already have that. Its called Detroit. Result of the failure of the industrial model. QED.
RE
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30th January 2011 at 10:33 pm
Reverse Engineer says:
Schools under Capitalism
RE’s Classroom
RE
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30th January 2011 at 10:39 pm
Kill Bill says:
No, I presented only 2 choices, no third option. You said you would choose neither, which implies a third option. Then you articulated that option is Death -RE
I do not imply, if I had meant a third option I would have typed it. I didnt.
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30th January 2011 at 10:41 pm
Reverse Engineer says:
@KB
In the case where you choose neither, you get the default option of what is chosen for you.
RE
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30th January 2011 at 10:43 pm
Kill Bill says:
You do not get to decide what my default option is.
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30th January 2011 at 10:49 pm
Reverse Engineer says:
@KB
I didn’t say I did. I just said that is what you will get. If you don’t choose, somebody chooses for you. You either come up with another solution or you live with the results of the solution that is chosen by others, There is no other choice there. Besides Death, which you mentioned.
RE
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30th January 2011 at 10:55 pm
Smokey says:
Goddamn, between RE and Kill Bill, you two stupid assholes have spent longer arguing about nothing than any other post in TBP history.
What fucking mongoloid douches.
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30th January 2011 at 11:30 pm
LLPOH says:
Smokey – I hope I got your message to RE correct. I tried to be exact, and convey not only the words but your intention, too.
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30th January 2011 at 11:40 pm
Smokey says:
llpoh—-Absolutely correct. I laughed my ass off.
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30th January 2011 at 12:22 am
eugend66 says:
Erasing 500 yrs of human history and going back into the Dark Age is not a solution.
Maybe the mankind will be able to change course.
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30th January 2011 at 3:56 am
Reader says:
A stupid article. What did you say about Muslims?
you are really dumb. Just another dumb idiot American.
What the f do you know about History you ignorant dumb-ass?
Just like your government, you are a stupid jackass.
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30th January 2011 at 4:38 am
old buck says:
Is there a part lV ? Next up “Q” featured article
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30th January 2011 at 8:20 am
Reverse Engineer says:
@E66
Its actually more like 300 years if you just predate the invention of the Steam Engine, putting you around 1711, which is a good deal after the Dark Ages.
Far as it not being a solution, if you like you could call it more of a consequence than a solution, but regardless of the terminology, it does address the problem of living with a lower energy footprint. Regardless of the course change we take, unless we come up with Cold Fusion or some other miraculous stick save in the very near future, the only possible solution is to use much less energy globally. Of course, if you knock down the population sufficiently, the remaining people might continue fairly high per capita usage for sometime.
RE
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30th January 2011 at 1:27 pm
Reverse Engineer says:
@OB
Yah, I have written another article, however it drifted far enough off the original Topic that it’s not going to be titled Last Crusade IV. I’m titling it “Dr. Jekyll & Mr. Hyde: The Two Faces of Capitalism.
I won’t be publishing it here today, since whenever JimQ posts up a new Feature Article you have to wait for the discussion on that to peter out before other topics will be discussed. I’ll probably publish it on Reverse Engineering today though.
http://tech.groups.yahoo.com/group/reverseengineering/
RE
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30th January 2011 at 1:37 pm