DATELINE: Innisfail, Queensland 7:47 AM
Again!
From the Bureau of Meteorology site:
“THIS IMPACT IS LIKELY TO BE MORE LIFE THREATENING THAN ANY EXPERIENCED DURING
RECENT GENERATIONS.
The Cyclone has now reached CATEGORY 5 and will continue to move in a
west-southwesterly direction during today.”
(aka “be very afraid”.)
Mt. Stuart radar, Topwnsville
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR211.loop.shtml#skip
Cyclone Yasi track map:
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ65002.shtml
Don’t ya just love extreme weather porn?
Here’s the thing: I’d been here in Qld. just over two years when Cyclone Larry hit in 2006. Ground zero, Innisfail. There’s still evidence of that one.
According to the BoM then, it was upgraded to Category 5 several hours before it hit. Now, the talking heads are claiming Larry was only a low four.
Our village is across from Palm Island (famous as the place where an Aboriginal in custody can fall up the stairs several times and kill himself.) We were in the second zone of heavy wind, and one gust of 150 k,. recorded right here.
My phone rang shortly after midnight, with a different ring tone. Alert! Evacuate.
Yes, well, with a Cat 5 pushing a high tidal surge, go where? Last time people were evacuated to the Showgrounds in Ingham, it ended up a foot under water. I haven’t had the TV on yet, so have been spared the wisdom of Premier Anna BlighT.
Funny thing about the satellite TV weather channel back in 2006. The evening before, “stay tuned throughout the night for live coverage.” By 4 am, the tape replay was still on Cat 4 and the official call had already been upgraded. Why lie when you get caught out so easily?!
Given past history, I would not be surprised to lose power before the day is over. Updates contingent on that.
Punk in Drublic says:
Whoa dude… Be careful.
Category five Cyclone Yasi has knocked out the weather bureau’s radar system on Willis Island, about 450 kilometers east of Cairns in far north Queensland.
The weather bureau’s radar and wind speed measurements on the island failed just before 9am (AEST).
The bureau says the maximum wind speed recorded before the equipment went down was 185 kilometers an hour.
Three weather observers and a technician left the island yesterday.
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1st February 2011 at 9:33 pm
Administrator says:
Tens of thousands flee Queensland as ‘deadly’ cyclone approaches
Incoming storm threatens to be as strong as Hurricane Katrina
By Kathy Marks in Sydney
Wednesday, 2 February 2011
Tens of thousands of people fled towns and tourist resorts in north Queensland yesterday and military helicopters evacuated hospital patients as a cyclone rivalling Hurricane Katrina roared towards the heavily populated coast.
Cyclone Yasi is forecast to make landfall late today or early tomorrow, with winds of up to 175mph and triggering storm surges and potentially deadly flash floods.
While residents in Cairns, the main jumping-off point for the Great Barrier Reef, have been warned to expect a direct hit, nearly a quarter of a million people – in towns and cities along the coast and possibly hundreds of miles inland – are in its path.
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The authorities warned residents and visitors in low-lying areas that yesterday was the last chance to get out safely. All aircraft leaving north Queensland – one of Australia’s most popular tourist destinations – were full last night, and airlines laid on extra flights to help with the exodus. With the state still reeling from last month’s record floods, which killed 35 people, the premier, Anna Bligh, said: “I know many of us will feel that Queensland has already borne about as much as it can bear when it comes to disasters and storms, but more is being asked of us.”
Yasi – expected to be a severe category four (on a five-point scale) when it hits land – was “huge and life-threatening,” she warned.
While the tropical north of the state is regularly buffeted by cyclones, forecasters fear that Yasi – which was picking up speed and intensity yesterday as it crossed the Coral Sea – could be Queensland’s worst ever.
The mayor of Cairns, Val Schier, said: “There’s a lot of fear and trepidation about it. There hasn’t been a cyclone of this size in anyone’s lifetime. It’s quite scary, to be honest, and the fact it’s heading straight towards us is cause for great worry.”
Much of Cairns is predicted to be flooded as the storm – which has a front of up to 600 miles – causes tidal surges of up to 8ft (2.4m). There are similar warnings for the city of Townsville; even the mining town of Mount Isa, 600 miles inland, has been placed on alert. “Make no mistake: this storm is a deadly event,” said Queensland’s disaster co-ordinator, Deputy Police Commissioner Ian Stewart.
Tourist resorts on the coast and on the Whitsunday Islands, famed for their white beaches and luxury accommodation, emptied yesterday as holidaymakers fled. The military airlifted hundreds of patients from two waterfront hospitals in Cairns to Brisbane, the state capital, and the elderly were also evacuated from care homes. Supermarkets reported panic buying, and long queues formed at petrol stations.
While flood-devastated areas are expected to escape the worst of the cyclonic rains, other parts of the state will be saturated, with Yasi forecast to dump 3ft of rain. Urging people to be sensible in the face of the cyclone’s “display of awesome power,” Ms Bligh warned: “We could see very powerful flash flooding that will be dangerous and potentially deadly.”
Queensland’s last severe storm, Cyclone Larry, ruined the sugar crop, flattened the town of Innisfail and wreaked A$1.5bn worth of damage in 2006. Ms Bligh said Yasi was “significantly larger” than Larry – so big that its eye could take an hour to pass over a single point. Katrina, which devastated New Orleans in 2005, generated winds of up to 125mph.
Queensland police have been given emergency powers to move people forcibly out of danger zones. In the small tourist town of Mission Beach, which was also levelled by Larry, one resident, Elvira Montgomery, said yesterday: “It’s a beautiful day today, but all of the tourists have now gone, and we’re just preparing everything for the cyclone.”
Yasi is another blow for the state’s coalmining industry, already facing huge losses as a result of the floods. At least one major mine closed temporarily yesterday, and rail and port operations were suspended.
The floods inundated about 30,000 homes and triggered an “inland tsunami” that destroyed small farming towns west of Brisbane.
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1st February 2011 at 9:56 pm
Administrator says:
Novista
Don’t you live right on the coast?
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1st February 2011 at 9:58 pm
llpoh says:
Having been in a hurricane or two, may I suggest this as a viable course of action? Flee. Do not pass go, but go directly to get the fuck out of dodge.
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1st February 2011 at 10:00 pm
newsjunkie says:
I have been through many hurricanes, only left for one and will NEVER do that again. Extreme weather porn is the perfect terminology to describe it. They love to generate fear – I guess it’s good for ratings.
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1st February 2011 at 10:03 pm
llpoh says:
This seems to be no ordinary storm. The bastard is the size of the US, with 200 mph winds. This is a link to an article I found. Whoa, baby.
Newsjunkie, I suspect you are often right, but have a look at this sumbitch.
http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/floodrelief/how-cyclone-yasi-compares-around-the-world/story-fn7ik2te-1225998762870
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1st February 2011 at 10:44 pm
llpoh says:
They are talking about over 3 feet of rain, and a storm the size of the US. If this sucker hit Bangladesh or somewhere similar it would be all over red rover. A category 5 they are calling it. Most of the hurricanes get called a 4 and end up a 3 or 2. This one seems to be growing. If this one went up the Mississipi, you could forget about rebuilding New Orleans. It would be the modern day Atlantis.
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1st February 2011 at 10:47 pm
Novista says:
2:12 pm AEST
Four hours ago, the overcast cleared, the sun shone, a light balmy breeze. If you didn’t know what lurked offshore, you wouldn’t know.
About an hour ago, full overcast again, an erratic wind sprang up. A half hour later, intermittent light rain. The expectation is 400 mm. in 12 hours, once Yasi makes landfall.
The eye is 100 km. across! The radius is 400 km., thus a good portion of the coast will be affected. Winds of 300 km. are expected and Yasi may continue inland still as a significant cyclone.
And yes, Jim, I’m on the coast. About five minutes walk to the beach from my Queenslander (highset, house on steel poles.)
There’s a medium high tide just before Yasi arrives, which means a big storm surge.
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1st February 2011 at 11:15 pm
Administrator says:
Novista
Shouldn’t you be running like hell? Do you have a death wish?
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1st February 2011 at 11:18 pm
Teila says:
Hang in there Novista ..hhhm, more appropritely, hang on
Seriously, stay safe and keep us updated xx
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1st February 2011 at 11:50 pm
Novista says:
Jim
My first cyclone of note was Larry in 2006. After a number I can’t even remember of hurricanes in Florida, you just take it in stride. I used to help my dad deliver milk, and a hurricane, so what, life goes on and people want their breakfast cereal or else! LOL.
I remember him one year, the hurricane had ripped off some of the tarpaper on a two-story house. He’d gone to get a few rolls and by the time the eye crossed, there he was, rolling and hammering. Finished that, came down, and the wind picked up again. Timing is everything.
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1st February 2011 at 12:16 am
ragman says:
Bullshit! You don’t take something like Andrew(’92) “in stride”.
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1st February 2011 at 8:02 am
Administrator says:
Tropical Cyclone Yasi, with winds stronger than Hurricane Katrina that hit New Orleans, is forecast to reach Australia’s coastline tonight as residents of the northeast city of Cairns packed into shelters.
People are being told to remain indoors as Yasi intensifies as a “catastrophic” category 5 storm with landfall due at midnight and winds expected to peak in excess of 290 kilometers (180 miles) per hour, the Bureau of Meteorology said. Thousands of people have evacuated low-lying areas of Cairns and Townsville, 341 schools are closed and more than 200 hospital patients have been airlifted to Brisbane.
“The next 24 hours are going to be very, very tough ones for everybody,” Queensland Premier Anna Bligh told reporters in Brisbane, the state capital, today. “Without doubt we are set to confront scenes of devastation and heartbreak.”
The cyclone, coming just weeks after Brisbane was hit by the worst flooding since 1974, is “likely to be more life threatening than any experienced during recent generations,” according to the weather bureau.
It’s forecast to be more severe than category 4 Cyclone Larry, which wiped out most of Australia’s banana crop and devastated sugar cane fields almost five years ago. Hurricane Katrina, which devastated New Orleans in Aug. 2005, had winds of as much as 175 miles per hour.
Prime Minister Julia Gillard said Yasi is the worst cyclone Australia has seen and that locals face “many dreadful, frightening hours ahead.”
Barrier Reef
Some 10,680 people are being sheltered in more than 20 evacuation centers along the coast to avoid a storm surge that is forecast to trigger flooding, Bligh said.
Five evacuation centers in Cairns are now full and turning away late arrivals, the Cairns Post reported on its website. The city of more than 120,000 people, about 1,700 kilometers north of Brisbane, is a tourist destination and gateway to the Great Barrier Reef.
Yasi was 165 kilometers east-southeast of Cairns at 8 p.m. local time, moving west-southwest at 26 kilometers per hour, the weather bureau said. The storm may affect more than 900 kilometers of coastline between Cape Flattery and Sarina, and the core is expected to cross the coast between Cairns and Ingham close to midnight.
The last category 5 cyclone to strike the Queensland coast was in 1918, Bligh said. The storm could take at least 24 hours to weaken after it makes landfall, senior bureau forecaster Gordon Banks told the Australian Broadcasting Corp.
“There’s still potential for it to become stronger,” he said. “As a strong category 5 we could see wind gusts in excess of 320 kilometers per hour, which is just horrific.”
Recovery Effort
More than 3,000 people in north Queensland have lost power, Brisbane’s Courier Mail reported on its website.
Coastal residents were warned of “an extremely dangerous” storm tide as the cyclone approaches, the Queensland government said in a statement. “The sea is likely to steadily rise up to a level which will be very dangerously above the normal tide, with extremely damaging waves, strong currents and flooding of low-lying areas extending some way inland.”
Queensland is beginning a recovery effort estimated to cost at least A$5 billion ($5 billion) as its economy prepares for slower growth because of flooding since November, Bligh said Jan. 28. The state contributes about 19 percent of Australia’s economic output, producing 80 percent of the country’s coking coal, Treasurer Wayne Swan said last month.
Cyclone Yasi will have a “huge impact” on the economy of Cairns and surrounding areas, which have only just started to rebound from a slump in international tourism following the global financial crisis, Mayor Val Schier told reporters today.
‘Extremely Worried’
“I am extremely worried,” Bligh said. “This is an event outside of anything this region has experienced.”
As many as 30,000 homes may be affected by a storm surge in Townsville, where about 5,000 dwellings were cleared today, the local city council said on its website.
Tourists in Cairns, the Whitsundays and Townsville, popular centers for cruises to the Great Barrier Reef, rushed to board flights late yesterday before airports were closed.
Losses to the sugar cane industry in the region, which accounts for about a third of Australian production, may be A$500 million, Steve Greenwood, chief executive officer of industry group Canegrowers, said in an e-mail today.
Bananas, Zinc
Banana plantations in the region, which account for 85 percent of national production, face “catastrophic” losses while a fifth of the state’s A$3.3 billion cattle herd may be wiped out, the National Farmers’ Federation said in an e-mailed statement today.
“We are anticipating a lot of damage to the main production area, and it just remains to be seen how devastating the winds will be,” Australian Banana Growers’ Council chief executive officer Jonathan Eccles said today by phone.
Century, the world’s second-largest zinc mine, is slowing operations because of the cyclone, Bruce Loveday, a spokesman for Minmetal Resources Ltd.’s MMG unit, said today by phone. Kagara Ltd. shut its Mt. Garnet zinc mine and treatment plant, Chairman Kim Robinson said by phone.
Rio Tinto Group and Xstrata Plc closed coal mines, while ports and rail lines are shut. At least 32 coal ships have headed out to sea after Hay Point harbor and the Abbot Point export terminal were closed, according to North Queensland Bulks Ports Corp. and Dalrymple Bay Coal Terminal Pty.
Tropical Cyclone Larry crossed the north Queensland coast near Innisfail, south of Cairns, in 2006. It caused an estimated A$500 million of damage to infrastructure and crops, damaging about 10,000 homes and disrupting road and rail access for several days, the weather bureau said on its website.
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1st February 2011 at 9:27 am
Administrator says:
Watch the monster live.
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDE00902.loop.shtml
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1st February 2011 at 9:29 am
MuckAbout says:
The killing power of a hurricane is in two things:
1. storm surge. Especially where there is a lot of shallow water ahead of the hurricane and the shore line. Most casualties of hurricanes die from drowning in the storm surge.
2. tornadoes. A hurricane is a series of spiraling bands of storms spinning counter-clockwise. Within these spinning bands are significant thunderstorms with tops above 50 thousand feet that generate tornados from the rapid (relatively) spin of the storm and the inrush of atmospheric air into the bottom of the eye.
Flooding from rain can be significant if you are in a flood prone area or flood plain of a natural drainage domain. If you take 3 feet of rain broadcast generally over the landscape and channel it all down to a dozen creeks and rivers before it empties into the ocean, those creeks and rivers will rise to awesome proportions at flash flood speeds and one had best not be in the way. Or try an cross one.
A note on wind speed. The winds usually quoted by weather porn broadcasters is that detected by and computed from doppler radar at significant altitudes. The storm wind itself is much lower the closer to the ground you go due to friction over geological features and vegetation. At 5,000 feet the wind may indeed be Cat 4 while at ground level, they may only be 75 to 100 MPH.
Novi: Been to Queensland several times and I know what your home looks like as far as elevated off the grade. Stay dry and hope for minimal flying debris. And the best of good luck, cobber..
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1st February 2011 at 1:56 pm
MuckAbout says:
Sorry, make that “clockwise”..
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1st February 2011 at 1:59 pm
Novista says:
*sigh* Old news is less than a footnote in history. But I hate to leave a job unfinished.
When the power failed on Wednesday before the cyclone, at 4:12 pm, I made pen on paper notes over the next six days. How quaint. So, for the record:
Wednesday — the water had gone off about 11 a.m. Once the power went, anticipation is boring. I took a short nap, then finished reading “Secret Weapons of World War Two”. Turned on the transistor radio to the ABC-NQ; had a candlelight dinner. Had turned on the Primus battery/fluro charged on Monday, but dead. Effing Chinese junk!
7 p.m. — wind up, sheets of rain blowing diagonally. Watching the big tree (in neighbor’s yard at back corner, knowing “it’s gonna come down.” 50-ft. of hazard, oh well.
8 p.m. — went to bed, not that I would sleep. Three hours later, wind had peaked up, rain was so noisy. Suspect landfall earlier than predicted.
1:20 a.m. — rain and wind eased off a lot, assume the eye (which was 100 km. across) and the calm lasted about 20 minutes (thus we were on the south edge.) I have a covered verandah, due to a room at either end, and the French doors were kept opn throughout, equalizing the pressure. Also some windows, a bit. When the eye passed, the wind shifted as I expected, and I had to close a small sliding window on the NE wall of the bedroom.
The onset of the trailing edge of Yasi brought the biggest impact thus far. Later, I found out what caused the biggest resonance of the structure.
Over the next few hours, I was cognizant of the rhythm, like the cyclone was an onion. One layer, extreme winds and rain, then slacks off, and repeats. Gusts of wind sometimes impacted on about a 2 hz. pulse, generally four strokes. I actually did catnap during the remainder of darkness.
6:20 a.m. — Rain eased off a lot. Opened the back door to the landing and … the crown of that 50-ft. tree filled the stairs! It had fallen parallel with the fence line — a deviation either way would have wiped out a corner of this house or the one next. Surveyed the yard, lemon tree and avocado rather twisted. Lots of foliage around but little damage. Other than fence. A long night’s day.
8:14 — slight break in the overcast, rain down, hint of sunlight. A few minutes later, ABC reports “no fatalities yet.”
8:25 — Heavy tropical downpour, diagnoal rain. When it eased, I went down to get a bucket of water from the rainwater tank. Rain sez ‘gotcha!’ Oh well.
9:02 — rain ceased, but winds at 100 km according to ABC. ABC a few minutes later, Allan BlighT explains “no info:” from various places. An unconfirmed report that 100 people in Cardwell “evaded evacuation”, out of 2,000. Neighbor had gone to Ingham early arvo on Wed. Said police told him, “Can’t go back, not safe.” Stayed in pub, door blew open, window, ended up in staircase through night. Safe? Yes.
The storm surge predicted for the previous night, only a 1.8 m tide, now, oh! there’s a 3.2 m tide about now. Beware! As if I didn’t know but it sure seemed a surprise to TPTB. ABC: “Tully was devastated.” “Townsville — evacuation centers will remain in lockdown mode.” ! (?)
9:34 — ABC: Cairns, no major effects. Tully 1 in 3 houses lost offing. Cardwell, significant damage. Ingham, significant flood event. NQ high voltage towers intact but power lines down , various places. Ingham, no power at all. (I learned later it failed at 9 p.m. Wed. That’s where our feed comes from.) Bruce Highway, trees down, some flooding. Three-fourth’s of Qld banana crop destroyed.
10:01 — Cardwell area, 285 km winds at peak. 100K homes without power in the region.
10:13 — whoa! rain like several hous ago. With wind.
ABC, noon — Flood cut several parts of Bruce Highway. Townsville water treatment plant out of action, wat will cease by tomorrow. (Many villagers fled here for the security of Tvl. ha!) Tully, Cardwell, Mission Beach may be out of water for a month. Mt. Isa will likely experience the tail end of Yasi.
2:10 p.m. — More heavy rain, “should cease this arvo.”
4 p.m. Neighbors next door surfaced, they’d stuck it out downstairs, Gave them a 2 5 ltr. container of rainwater (toilets, ya know?) Mostly quiet evening.
Friday — spent 3 hrs. with hand tools cutting bits of tree to clear the back steps. Yard cleanup. The only “disaster recovery teams” were us locals working together. Two blokes with utes gathered the tree rubbish we put out on our street. Same happening all around the village and the shire functionaries nowhere to be seen. More on that in a bit.
Saturday — more tree snipping, more yard cleaning. Water back on about 12:30 p.m.
Sunday — although I did not listen 24/7 to the ABC, I had it on a lot.
6:31 p.m. — “Forrest Beach state school will not be open Monday.” This was on a regional list — and the first mention I heard of here.
7:10 p.m. — the FIRST advisory from Hinchibrook Shire Council. “Contrary to popular belief, our water is safe! But boil it anyway.”
Monday — the local convenience store got ice for the first time. Yay! Phones and mobiles still out.
2:25 p.m. — Ergon Energy spokesman says “Forrest Beach could be out ‘a while’ … ”
3:25 p.m. — caller to ABC from Crystal Creek: “~they~ can’t find us on the system anywhere. We have water but no power, can’t treat my nursery plants.”
4:36 p.m. — First mention on radio about danger of asbestos …
5:57 p.m. — ABC in Ingham with our shire council mayor. Repeat of water story and a lot of other useless shit.
Thus endeth the notes.
Yasi, the retrospective:
On the Thursday, ABC radio had a plea: “Does anyone know the whereabouts of the may or Hinchinbrook or any of the councillors? No one has heard from them for two days.” Of course not. Pino the pinhead sent the council staff home, “Come back when it’s all over.” It was five days before I heard any mention of Forrest Beach, and that was the school closing.
From the onset, all the radio had to report was “the Bruce Highway is cut off in several areas, trees and powerlines down, no one can get through.” The SES wasn’t game to head for Tully or Mission Beach “because it might be unsafe.” Yet, ABD had callers who told the facts: how to get out of Townsville by the Hervey Range development road; a bloke who had a friend with a private plane had overflown the highway and reported it passable beyond Innisfail. People here wanting to get north had been turned back at the edge of town by police. And two hours later, the Bruce Highway was magically open.
On the Saturday morning, I saw a convoy of five APCs leaving the village. Why were they here? Survey? Who knows. Did they do anything? No one saw it.
The first council activity I saw was the crew picking up half the beach from the park and roadway next. And taking it to the dump. So when someone here says, “we lost half the beach.” No, it’s stored at the dump, see? Duh!
Phones were on for some people late Tuesday, and power for some about 5 p.m. As of this morning, the main street still had enormous piles
I’m told the recorded gust in the village was 228 km. Yahoo!
The consensus of most people I’ve talked to is that the government and the media (a) play the scare card and (b) say nothing anyone can trust. Their ‘Disaster Management Plan’ is a farce, they’ve learned nothing from past events and the next time will be more of the same.
Well-loved. Like or Dislike:
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1st February 2011 at 6:53 am
eugend66 says:
Those are some sad news. Best wishes for you and all the Aussies.
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1st February 2011 at 7:02 am
Administrator says:
Novista
Great story. I’m glad you made it through. I think you nailed it. When the SHTF, the government will be nowhere to be found. It will be up to each person to help their neighbors.
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1st February 2011 at 7:25 am
ecliptix543 says:
I spent about 3 months in Tvl in 2006, somehow managed to leave a week before Larry hit. Now I live in FL and wouldn’t even want to think about the peasant’s reaction to such a storm here. A few would make it, most would run screaming to the gov’t and get screwed. Good on ya Novista!
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1st February 2011 at 8:09 am