A COUPLE FASCINATING HOURS WITH NEIL HOWE

I had the pleasure of spending two hours with Neil Howe today. On his way back to Washington DC from a meeting with a client in NYC he stopped at 30th Street Station and we grabbed a bite to eat and chatted for a couple hours. Neil’s background is fascinating. His grandfather was astronomer Robert Julius Trumpler. His father was a physicist and his mother was a professor of occupational therapy. I know there has been a dominant opinion on this site that liberal arts degrees are worthless. I don’t think any college degree is worthless. I realize we need more engineers and scientists, but many people are not wired for these professions. We need writers, historians, and thinkers too. Neil Howe is a perfect example. His undergraduate degree from Berkley was in literature. He then earned graduate degrees in economics and history. His well rounded education has given him a much broader view of the world. And he’s a Boomer. Proof that all Boomers aren’t bad.

I had never met Neil. We have had occasional email correspondence and he was the star of Generation Zero, in which I had tiny part. He is a famous man. He’s written or co-written 15 books.  He runs a very successful company called Lifecourse Associates. Based on my two hours in his acquantance you would never know he was a famous person. He is extremely down to earth. He is a nice guy. I never felt intimidated, even though his brain power is out of my league. He was actually interested in my background and my opinions.

But enough small talk. You want to know what he thinks about our current Fourth Turning. He was proud that some distinguished institutions had agreed with the Strauss & Howe dating definitions for Boomers, Xers, and Millenials. His starting point for this Fourth Turning is 2007. We are only four years into this Turning and haven’t reached regeneracy yet. I asked him why regeneracy had begun in the last two Fourth Turnings by year four, but hasn’t begun yet. He said that each Turning has its own flow. We agreed that something huge would need to happen in order to create a regeneracy in this country. It could be an economic collapse or it could be war.

He believes the situation which has the biggest potential to blow up the world is Iran. He thinks people are underestimating the implications of a conflict with Iran. He thinks Israel will act unilaterally to keep Iran from getting a nuclear bomb. I asked him if he thinks there will be a world war during this Fourth Turning. He doesn’t think it will be a world war. He expects regional conflicts in the Middle East.

I asked him why the Boomers didn’t seem to be supporting and leading the Millenial generation. He said that within families Boomers and Millenials are very close. This will ultimately exhibit itself. He thinks Boomers will eventually choose to sacrifice some of their entitlements in order to give Millenials a fighting chance at a future. We discussed the upcoming presidential election. He had some nice things to say about Ron Paul. He has been surprised by Newt Gingrich’s rise in the polls. Neil has known Gingrich for 20 years since he has worked on public policy in DC. He believes his past will come back to haunt him. He thinks Romney is likely to win the Republican nomination by default. If the economy stays in the dumper, Romney will be our next President. He is a Prophet/Boomer leader. Neil doesn’t think Bloomberg could win as a 3rd party candidate because of his association with Wall Street. Anyone associated with Wall Street is toxic.

His opinion about OWS was interesting. He says that the movement is made up of 50% Millenials. He thinks the creators of the movement are actually anarchist Boomers trying to use the Millenials for their own purposes. He thinks the movement has a lot of passion but not a lot of depth. His firm has done surveys and he found that most Millenials don’t even know there is an OWS movement. I asked him whether libertarians are likely to be happy with this Fourth Turning. He said that libertarians have an impact early in a Fourth Turning (Ron Paul, Tea Party), but once the regeneracy occurs people rally around the central authority and government is likely to take on more power and control. Not a happy thought.

Neil lamented what a great opportunity was missed in early 2009 by Barack Obama. The situation in the country was awful. He had both Houses in Congress. His popularity was at its peak. He could have done anything. The country could have accepted short term pain and began to fix our structural problems. He could have had an orderly liquidation of the Wall Street banks. He could have combined short term stimulus with a long term fix for our entitlement programs. But instead he rolled over for Wall Street and dished out Keynesian pork to his supporters. A once in a lifetime chance was missed.

He believes the Federal Reserve policies are disastrous. Zero percent interest rates have sucked the vitality from our economy. The policies are exacerbating our debt problems. People have no incentive to save with zero interest rates. I told him that TBP members are anxious to know what happens next. Here’s where you’ll be disappointed. Neil doesn’t make predictions of events. There will always be dramatic events as time passes, but it is how generations react to those events that matter. There is no doubt that it will take a dramatic event to create a regeneracy of spirit in this country. The triggers for this Crisis were clearly visible in 1997 when Strauss and Howe wrote their classic book – debt, civic decay, and global disorder. The toxic combination is still roiling the world. We can only guess at the timing and specific events that will push us into the next phase of this Crisis. 

I told Neil that I end many of my posts these days with, “Fourth Turnings sure are interesting.” He thought that was funny. With Neil’s train due to arrive in a few minutes we got up to say our goodbyes. We agreed that we are living in interesting times. He joked that at least we know how this will end, which is more than most people. He is going to revive his Fourth Turning blog and asked if I would contribute articles. I told him I’d be honored.

All in all, it was a fascinating and enlightening two hours having a great discussion with a brilliant man.

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Dragline
Dragline

Wow, that was great. You sure got more out of him that we see on his website!

“Neil lamented what a great opportunity was missed in early 2009 by Barack Obama. The situation in the country was awful. He had both Houses in Congress. His popularity was at its peak. He could have done anything. The country could have accepted short term pain and began to fix our structural problems. He could have had an orderly liquidation of the Wall Street banks. He could have combined short term stimulus with a long term fix for our entitlement programs. But instead he rolled over for Wall Street and dished out Keynesian pork to his supporters. A once in a lifetime chance was missed.”

This may be the biggest political tragedy of our lifetimes. The opportunity to deal with the banks and ponzi financiers was wasted and now we are all going to suffer. Financial institutions will only get politically stronger under Obamney.

His take on OWS was very interesting too. I keep thinking everything will die down after the next election and the explode again in another year or two. But as he says, its not good to be in the prediction business.

“A man’s gotta know his limitations . . .”

I still think the shit hits the fan when Iran starts being able to fly drones.

But I’m just an Xer working on my Honor, Liberty and SURVIVAL, dammit.

Thinker

Wow. Sounds like a fascinating few hours. You would really have enjoyed Bill Strauss. He always reminded me of Carl Sagan.

2007, eh? That’s a couple years after where I would place it. Just means we’re not as far along as we’d like to be. Agree with him on Obama, but every 4T needs its Buchanan/Hoover. Bush just would have fit the job description better.

Fascinating about no “total war.” It would be nice to get out of this 4T without one, but I just don’t see that happening. He’s right; at least we know how it all turns out. Did you get a chance to ask about Advancement/Atonement theory?

Looking forward to hearing more from him on his blog, but I can only imagine how busy he must be.

Thinker

Dragline, are you going to let the people over at the 4TF know about this piece? I’m inclined not to…

howard in nyc

thanks, admin. that is great.

i admit, i clung tightly to the hope that the newly elected president would recognize 1) the dire historical moment for this country when he stepped to the fore; 2) the immense wave of popularity and euphoria that accompanied his inauguration combined to provide an amazing opportunity to really help the country. i gave it a one in ten shot he would give it a go.

the naming of geithner, and the sticking by geithner after his tax cheating became known and admitted killed off half my hope. his tepid speech after he was sworn in killed the other half.

he even teased, that he was studying fdr’s ‘the only thing we have to fear is fear itself’ address.

the path was so clear, so obvious. and he shit the bed. i guess i can’t blame him, since he still has about 45% of the electorate conned.

i am gratified a distinguished thinker and writer as neil howe saw the opportunity as well.

fdr laid it all out for him: http://www.americanrhetoric.com/speeches/fdrfirstinaugural.html

“…(P)rimarily, this is because the rulers of the exchange of mankind’s goods have failed, through their own stubbornness and their own incompetence, have admitted their failure, and have abdicated. Practices of the unscrupulous money changers stand indicted in the court of public opinion, rejected by the hearts and minds of men.

True, they have tried. But their efforts have been cast in the pattern of an outworn tradition. Faced by failure of credit, they have proposed only the lending of more money. Stripped of the lure of profit by which to induce our people to follow their false leadership, they have resorted to exhortations, pleading tearfully for restored confidence. They only know the rules of a generation of self-seekers. They have no vision, and when there is no vision the people perish.

Yes, the money changers have fled from their high seats in the temple of our civilization. We may now restore that temple to the ancient truths. The measure of that restoration lies in the extent to which we apply social values more noble than mere monetary profit.

Happiness lies not in the mere possession of money; it lies in the joy of achievement, in the thrill of creative effort. The joy, the moral stimulation of work no longer must be forgotten in the mad chase of evanescent profits. These dark days, my friends, will be worth all they cost us if they teach us that our true destiny is not to be ministered unto but to minister to ourselves, to our fellow men.”

dd
dd

genuinely awed by this piece, Admin. thank you. Colma has me going on this 4th Turning concept and i am buying into alot of it, even after only excerpts and thus a very basic understanding (the book is incoming).

seriously Admin, all BS and garbage talk aside from my other posts, this was was so money and as you said, fascinating.

Wyoming Mike
Wyoming Mike

I’m fascinated that he thinks Obamao means well. No opportunity was missed by any stretch of the imagination, rather, it was an opportunity avoided.

Steve Hogan
Steve Hogan

One look at Obama’s campaign contributors for 2008 is all you need to know why the opportunity to do the right thing was not taken.

Fuck the bankers.

howard in nyc

steve, that was yet another side of this travesty. obama defeated hillary with millions of small donations from individual contributors. he collected more money than the clinton money machine. he won.

after he got the nomination, it made sense to use the party fund-raising resources to the fullest. including wall street, pharma and other corporate money.

but his primary campaign proved that he could raise enough money to win the presidency from individual donors. he proved that you could win w/o huge corporate money. as a populist incumbent president, it would’ve been a cakewalk to collect every dollar he needed for re-election from the people.

obama sidestepped the traditional money raising pattern in the primary. and he won. and he could’ve done the same now. but he didn’t trust the people. he trusted the bankers. what a maroon.

Colma Rising
Colma Rising

That is so frickin BADASS!!!

I can’t wait to see something new on the 4T blog… especially from Admin. I might even comment, and yes, I’ll cash the furious douschebaggery, saving it only for TBP.

Admin… you’re not telling the whole story… I can feel it in my gut.

No less, in all truth, I can’t argue about education. After all, what’s the Ph in PhD? Oh yeah… Philosophy… the love of wisdom.

Obama was elected precisely for the reasons he so foolishly passed by… Had this been the depression era, however, we wouldn’t realize it. Communications, childrens, communications. Not so long ago the concept of TBP would, at best, be a book or series with fan mail and lectures. Many of the contributed posts would be pamphlets circulated in a quasi-clandestine manner. In the last 4th turning, Obama’s voice would be mesmerizing through the radio.

I only wish I could share the optimism of “regional conflict”…

As for OWS, the Tea Party or any seemingly political movement… I only wish one could have sit in some classes I took. Not for the subject matter, but for the sight: People are waking the fuck up. Vocational or philosophical… people are waking the fuck up. Not to demonstrating, not to political action… but to talking to one another. Hard to describe… I’ve tried before and failed miserably by my own assesment. I can only say that if indeed these were “planned”, the concoctors’ mix will not be what they expect…

AKAnon
AKAnon

Admin-Once again, thanks.

Novista

Kudos, Jim!

It will be interesting watching the new venue.

DavosSherman

Awesome!!!!

flash
flash

Thanks of the insight into the unknown, JQ.
Interesting read.
For what it’s worth , I see no regeneracy happening without restructuring the entire financial and political system and we both know that ain’t going to a happen sans a very painful process.

flash
flash

Are the Millennials gettign a bad rap here?

http://www.pnj.com/article/20111207/NEWS01/112070323/Martial-arts-master-says-people-under-35-too-spoiled-learn?odyssey=tab|topnews|text|FRONTPAGE

Martial arts master says people under 35 too spoiled to learn

Safakhoo, 53, has been teaching martial arts for decades. He teaches a Persian combat art called Nabard at his studio, Nabard Combat/Fitness on Schwab Drive in Pensacola, said he has grown tired of whining from younger students who always seem to need a pat on the head.

“I am doing this because I am very disappointed in America’s younger generations who seem to expect instant gratification in lieu of hard work and who think they can demand respect without first giving respect,” he announced on his website last week. “I will no longer waste my time and energy on anyone who wants something for nothing — results without effort — reward without sacrifice.”

Generation Y or Millennials — those born between 1979 and 2002 — have been widely labeled by employers and some sociologists as the “trophy generation” with self-esteem to spare and a sense of entitlement.

And Safakhoo said the characterization is correct.

An instructor in Pensacola for 30 years, he said he has noticed a disturbing trend in the past 10 years: Many 15- to 30-year-olds commit to be students, then quit within a month.

Young people can’t face that they’re uncoordinated, out of shape, undisciplined and have no respect for themselves or others because they’ve always been told they’re wonderful and accomplished, he said.

“If they’re fat, I tell them they’re fat,” Safakhoo said. “They don’t benefit from lies. They can make a change and be healthy, but it is not a quick fix. This is raw, natural fitness.”

Instead of feeling happy to discover and work on themselves, they feel embarrassed, he said. Then, because they’ve never truly experienced discipline or hard work, they give up. Five people quit just last month, he said.

llpoh
llpoh

Nice, Admin. Good job.

Re OWS, here I have been thinking it is a movement of a bunch of lazy, dirty out of work hippies, while in reality it is just a bunch of anarchists. Thank Christ I was wrong!

newsjunkie
newsjunkie

Are you more or less optimistic today after your meeting with him?

VickiS
VickiS

Thanks for writing about your meeting with Neil Howe. I’m a big fan of Strauss and Howe, having read Generations and The Fourth Turning. With regard to the topics covered in your meeting, I would have to agree with Mr. Howe’s insights on Iran, OWS, and (sadly) greater government power and control becoming a reality in the not-so-distant future. I’m not adding anything original here…just appreciate what you shared and want to say thank you again.

newsjunkie
newsjunkie

He knows at least one of them now.

dd
dd

Novista, you should switch from TBP to twitter, 140 character limit and inanity is encouraged. perfect for you.

Shadows
Shadows

Howe says that during a Fourth Turning, individuals rally around the state and their community. I agree with this, in the sense that people rally around and make sacrifices for their family, group, or movement, but I think that it’s an oversimplification to assume that means that we will see, for instance, a larger and more powerful government on the way out. Consider the American Revolution. Americans rallied around SOME institutions and communities, that is, their towns, their colonies, the new American revolutionary government, but certainly not the faraway Parliament in London. This Fourth Turning, people could, just to throw out one random example, rally around a new revolutionary libertarian state, or new interim nationalist military state that dismantles large parts of the welfare state as being detrimental to the health of the nation. In summary, just because Americans certainly WILL discover their larger community, DOES NOT mean they will determine the existing regime in Washington to be that community. They might, for another example, decide their race or ethnic group is their paramount loyalty, and make great sacrifices to win a race war. Just some thoughts.

Colma Rising
Colma Rising

Boomer Anarchists, llpoh, Boomer anarchists.

TeresaE
TeresaE

Thank you so much for sharing.

I’m glad he is optimistic, I truly hope that it ends up being well founded.

Thanks again.

Mary Malone

Really fascinating stuff, Admin.

Was really surprised to hear Howe thinks Romney is the next Prez. Thought that he may predict Ron Paul instead.

Were you surprised at this too?

And..

Howe:: “The only thing that is predictable with any accuracy are the reactions of the generations to the events.”

It always comes down to that, doesn’t it? We have the power to influence the outcome – really depends on us…

Mary Malone

Admin: Fourth Turnings are driven by massive government intervention and control. He thinks Ron Paul is a good man but his smaller government message doesn’t fit the likely Fourth Turning scenario.

Very interesting…I’ve learned about Fourth Turning from you. It was your piece on Market Oracle that brought me to TBP. I think it’s time I buy The Fourth Turning book (from TBP Amazon link, of course) and learn more.

Stucky

So …

… OWS is a lot of passion but not very deep. In other words, ineffective.

…. Ron Paul is a nice guy with no chance.

…. Romney the ultimate rich guy Insider will win the Presidency by default.

…. and this “regeneration” thingy will result in a bigger and more powerful government.
.
.
.
Jeezus Fucking Krist. Should I kill myself now or later?

TeresaE
TeresaE

Administrator says:

Stuck

Fourth Turnings generally suck

That would look great on a Tshirt or mug, right next to TBP.com

TeresaE
TeresaE

Stucky, unless it hurts bad, choose later. We haven’t seen “hurts bad” yet.

Besides, I, for one, would miss ya’.

Stucky

Thanks Teresa.

Well, since we just bought a 5K watt generator this very morning at Lowe’s, I shall postpone my Hari Kari. (Anyways …. I’ll probably electrocute my fat ass first time I need to use it.)

Colma Rising
Colma Rising

Hey Admin… so did he want to be looking in the distance or thumbing through a book?…

The titanic Strauss and Howe statues, that is?

Novista

dd

Money in America, Part One

Is that long enough for you, you fucking cur? I was right about hubris, your words reek of it.

However, you have someone here who will have a dialogue with you.

llpoh
llpoh

Colma – fiffty percent boomer anarchists and fifty percent gullible millenials. Great. Just fucking great. If he is right I do not think there will be a real positive out of that movement. But maybe it will generate.some continuing debate. At least that would be something.

Admin – I expected you to light me up for being so sarcastic. You are growing soft – i haven’t seen a good shitstorm in days.

Dd – you are gonna get reamed if you keep it up. Novista is a long termer around here and that alone demands some respect.

Colma Rising
Colma Rising

Admin: So thumbing through a book with a furled brow it is….

LLPOH: Not half boomer, just half millennial. Anyway… it doesn’t take much to wonder who and come up with a probable answer.

Certainly not the folks Beck thinks… I’ll leave it at that.

Colma Rising
Colma Rising

Admin:

I can’t find (or summon the patience to find) the post you did a while back… the S&H interview from back in the day…

You know what I’m talking about?

Colma Rising
Colma Rising

Admin:

Thanks…

(I’ve never contended that I’m not a moron.)

Hotrod
Hotrod

I believe that OWS is easy to explain. We most likely will have to choose the bought and paid for Obama or the bought and paid for Romney with no other real alternatives (that have any chance making it through TPTB gauntlet). They realize that this is no choice whatsoever. After watching the GOP hopefuls try to outdo each other kissing the ass of the Zionists a few nights ago I realized we will again be at war before long. The GOP will openly support the Wall Street criminals. The Dems will covertly support the Wall Street criminals. OWS is pure frustration at having no viable political choice any more. And not knowing what the hell to do about it.

Colma Rising
Colma Rising

I am a little perplexed….

A group of boomers using millennials for their ends seems quite “4th Turningish”…

Would this be a situation where the nomad tempers the moralistic push of the elder prophets?

Colma Rising
Colma Rising

Anyone want to light up some old articles on N.H’s blog with comments?

Until Admin gets his work up there, anyway?

Saintpaulia
Saintpaulia

I am an archetypal Boomer (1948) and I read the 4th Turning years ago. So I’m all set. Thing is I still cannot figure out why I chose to be born just in time to be a witness to this Crisis. So far I am not very sanguine. I suppose I must have had some good reason to incarnate for this Big Show, but I am still in the dark.

I will agree however, that my sons, both Millenials, and I are very much on the same wavelength. Whereas their mother, 9 years my junior, seems to be clueless.

Smoke Jensen
Smoke Jensen

Great post Admin. You get to hang out with all of the cool kids.

B Lever
B Lever

Admin- Which entitlements do I need to give up to a minnie? I didn’t know I was receiving any.

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