Below is a post from Mike Shedlock showing that gasoline and petroleum usage in the United States is plunging. This is completely counter to what you would expect if employment is growing dramatically and the economy is recovering strongly as proclaimed by the government and their media mouthpieces. If more people have jobs, there should be more cars on the road driving to those jobs. Auto sales are supposedly booming as the annual rate of sales is above 14 million versus below 10 million in 2009. My own eyes confirms the plunge in gasoline usage. Anyone who has been reading this blog for the last three years knows I’ve regularly complained about my shitty commute. Well, over the last three months my commute isn’t so shitty anymore. My regular commute was often an hour or more. Now my regular commute is always under 50 minutes. I’m travelling at the same time on the same roads. My drive home at night is particularly pleasant, with me getting home in 45 minutes on a regular basis. There are clearly less vehicles on the road. The economic recovery story is a crock of shit. The 243,000 added jobs in January is a lie. Do you believe you eyes or the government reported lies?
Huge Plunge In Petroleum and Gasoline Usage
Inquiring minds are watching a plunge in Petroleum Distillates and Gasoline usage.
Reader Tim Wallace writes
Hello Mish
As I have been telling you recently, there is some unprecedented data coming out in petroleum distillates, and they slap me in the face and tell me we have some very bad economic trends going on, totally out of line with such things as the hopium market – I mean stock market.
This past week I actually had to reformat my graphs as the drop off peak exceeded my bottom number for reporting off peak – a drop of ALMOST 4,000,000 BARRELS PER DAY off the peak usage in our past for this week of the year.
I have added a new graph to my distillates report, a “Graph of Raw Data” to which I have added a polynomial trendline. You can easily see that the plunge is accelerating and more than rivals 2008/09 and in gasoline is greatly exceeding the rate.
An amazing thing to note is that in two out of the last three weeks gasoline usage has dropped below 8,000,000 barrels per day.
The last time usage fell that low was the week of September 21, 2001! And you know what that week was! Prior to that you have to go back to 1996 to have a time period truly consistently below 8,000. We have done it two out of the last three weeks.
The second graph once again shows the year on year change in usage of distillates. The Obama “stimulus” package and Fed monetary actions masked the underlying systemic problems.
The third and final graph shows the changes in usage off the peak year of 2007. Once again you can see the effect of the stimulus and how now we are heading below 2008/09 in an accelerating fashion.
Looking at these numbers I believe we are about to have a surge in unemployment – by the end of April latest, possibly as early as beginning of March.
Tim
Petroleum Distillates and Gasoline Usage in Barrels per Day
Note that on a best curve fit, petroleum usage is back to 1997 level and gasoline usage is back to 2001 level. Moreover, as Wallace points out, two out of the last three weeks gasoline usage has dropped below 8,000,000 barrels per day.
Year-Over-Year Petroleum and Gasoline Usage (Compared to Peak Usage)
Note the trough of the recent recession, the rebound, and now a sudden plunge in gasoline and petroleum usage once again.
Decline from Peak Usage
A mild winter can explain part of the drop in petroleum usage (heating oil), but it does not explain the declines in gasoline usage or the overall trends.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Nonanonymous says:
And the anomaly of central planning continues, until it doesn’t.
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6th February 2012 at 12:40 pm
AWD says:
Excellent reference point, and indisputable by the criminals in Washington who are still crowing about our “economic recovery”. There aren’t as many jobs, period. They’re gone, baby, gone, and aren’t coming back. This data signifies economic contraction, period. The question I have is how much can our economy contract?
#34 Back in the year 2000, more than 20 percent of all jobs in America were manufacturing jobs. Today, only about 5 percent of all jobs in America are manufacturing jobs.
#32 According to author Clyde Prestowitz, China’s number one export to the U.S. is computer equipment. According to an article in U.S. News & World Report, during 2010 the number one U.S. export to China was “scrap and trash”.
#35 Between December 2000 and December 2010, 38 percent of the manufacturing jobs in Ohio were lost, 42 percent of the manufacturing jobs in North Carolina were lost and 48 percent of the manufacturing jobs in Michigan were lost.
#40 According to U.S. Representative Betty Sutton, an average of 23 manufacturing facilities a day closed down in the United States during 2010.
#41 Overall, more than 56,000 manufacturing facilities in the United States have shut down since 2001.
#42 According to Professor Alan Blinder of Princeton University, 40 million more U.S. jobs could be sent out of the country over the next two decades.
We could lose 40 million more jobs in the coming years. The trends are mind boggling, and not likely to improve, no matter how much bullshit spin Obama puts on it. The government has to continue lying to the population, or else there might be a revolt. Or, just continue to print new money and give away free everything to millions more people, or pay them a $75,000 bonus to give away more free shit.
Admin, people don’t have to drive or commute to go to their “McJobs”, or their “service economy” jobs. With direct deposit unlimited unemployment, Welfare, SNAP, and all the other government socialist hand-outs, who needs to drive anywhere?
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6th February 2012 at 1:37 pm
Stucky says:
This morning I heard on the radio that gas prices will — without a doubt — be in the $4/gal range by summer …. and that’s NOT considering a conflict with Iran. Four bucks a gallon IF everything goes well!! Damn.
My Caddy froze up on me last week. Only 110,000 miles. Piece of shit. It’s going to the salvage yard this week … to be recycled as a few hundred cans of coka-cola.
Spent all weekend looking for a good (errr, cheap) deal. Supposedly, I will be getting a call from an Audi dealership … a customer is trading in their 1997 Toyota Camry, 64,000 miles, one owner and in mint condition, price is just $1,900. Seems like a damn nice deal to me. Get’s about 50% better gas mileage than the Caddy so even if gas goes to $5 buck a gallon I’ll still break even.
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6th February 2012 at 1:39 pm
Robmu1 says:
Admin – it could be that your commute just seems like it is easier due to the new, svelte, happier Admin.
Nah. The recovery is bullshit.
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6th February 2012 at 2:12 pm
AKAnon says:
The drop in gasoline sales has nothing to do with unemployment. It is just all those Chevy Volt commuters. On the bright side, does this push out the point of peak cheap oil?
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6th February 2012 at 2:12 pm
Persnickety says:
Yes, this sort of thing should delay Peak Oil by at least a couple weeks, maybe a month or two.
Oh, wait, Peak Oil occurred back in 2006, we’re already on the downslope. This will ever so slightly flatten the downslope curve. THREE CHEERS!
Doesn’t anyone see the obvious explanation? The american auto fleet magically became more efficient in the last few weeks. It’s probably the power of positive thinking. Obamao has a mandatory new book about this. The preamble was written by the Dear Leader Kim himself, may he RIP.
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6th February 2012 at 2:35 pm
Colma Rising says:
Well, I see less traffic and work is kinda slacking too…
Must be those damned speculators again, right?
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6th February 2012 at 2:47 pm
Goldorack says:
in the other hand, gasoline sales could surge the day Molotov cocktails become mainstream.
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6th February 2012 at 2:50 pm
Administrator says:
Stuck
That sounds like a steal. You’ll get another 64,000 miles out of that Camry.
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6th February 2012 at 2:51 pm
Administrator says:
Robmu1
Read my new article and see if I’m happier.
Bah Humbug
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6th February 2012 at 2:53 pm
Administrator says:
Goldie
You always seem to find the silver lining in a dark cloud.
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6th February 2012 at 3:20 pm
Goldorack says:
I try to do my best to lift spirit of people…I just watched “The Road”. It filled me with joy and love
this world is a lunatic asylum. I’m not always sure it has to be saved
determined to save my ass, yes. as for the rest, well…
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6th February 2012 at 3:42 pm
KaD says:
As someone said: “I can’t save the world, but I don’t have to participate in its destruction either”.
Not only has the Baltic Dry Index tanked recently but the situation is SO bad the shipping rates have gone negative. Yes, the ship will pay YOU to hire them to run cargo. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/shipping-rates-go-negative
Globalization is beginning to fray around the edges. Eventually it will fall apart. Relocalization will commence out of necessity; especially for the food supply.
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6th February 2012 at 4:07 pm
Stucky says:
The Camry deal didn’t work out. The salesman told me the customer brought in the car and right then and there, within 5 minutes, someone bought the car. Oh, well.
But ol’ Stucky had a backup.
I bought another car this evening. This used car dealer has a “contract” with a nursing home in town — he gets virtually all the cars these old geezers sell. Mine is a one owner … owned by a lady who is now 92 years old. I hope she didn’t drive it too hard. lol Looks like it just came out of the showroom.
Anyway, my new baby is here below;
http://autos.yahoo.com/used-cars/buick-century-cars4656899215768171526?sortcol=mileage&sortdir=down&page=100&modelyearub=1997&modelyearlb=1994&askpriceub=any&askpricelb=any&deliverymileageub=any&deliverymileagelb=any&listingtype=used&model=century&make=buick&distance=any
Whaddya think?
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6th February 2012 at 10:22 pm
Stucky says:
I would like to put in a plug for the dealer from whom I bought my new baby. Maybe it well help people looking for a good deal. I believe they ship all over the country. My salesguy and the owner are really a hoot …. no nonsense, no bullshit …. just the truth. Refreshing.
They have over 200 cars under $2,000.
The main site is here;
http://www.marlboromotors.com/
The salesguy told me they just got in a 1993 Camry ….. with just 22,000 miles!! I doubt it last long. Here it is;
http://www.autotrader.com/dealers/dda/inventory.jsp?dealership_view_name=marlboro&dealer_id=86399&advanced=&default_sort=&resultCar=null&make=TOYOTA&make2=&model=&start_year=1981&end_year=2013&min_price=&max_price=&search_type=both&transmission=&engine=&drive=&doors=&fuel=&max_mileage=&color=&keywordsrep=&keywordsfyc=&keywords_display=&sort_type=priceDESC&suppressStyle=null&x=51&y=9
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6th February 2012 at 10:37 pm
Administrator says:
Stuck
You are going to be a chick magnet with those wheels. Is that a K car?
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6th February 2012 at 7:31 am
Goldorack says:
it seems that gas isn’t that expensive when I see these cars…
same car in Europe, NOT USING DIESEL, and you can sell a kidney to buy gas for holidays.
coming soon to a theater near you.
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6th February 2012 at 7:34 am
Goldorack says:
Stuckenmeister, your car will trigger a war with Iran.
you should be ashamed.
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6th February 2012 at 7:37 am
flash says:
@ Stuck…Made me remember Springsteen on Used Cars..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_zYf9Uw-6Ak&feature=related
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6th February 2012 at 7:55 am
Stucky says:
Jim,
It’s a Buick CENTURY — so named because the only chicks I can pick up with that car will be 100 years old, or so.
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6th February 2012 at 3:43 pm
AWD says:
Stuckenmeister buying an American car? Did the world come off it’s axis or something?
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6th February 2012 at 4:13 pm