Interesting that the ICE has instituted trading curbs on trading oil beginning on APRIL 1.
How fascinating. Why April 1?
Coincidence? Why not institute the curbs starting today? Why not May 1?
Another Dot?
1001 Moonless Kinetic Nights: Presenting The Windows Of Opportunity For An Iranian Attack
Following last Friday’s majority vote by the Israel Security Council authorizing Iranian “action” when required, answering the “if“, the only open question remains “when.” As it turns out, based on the following analysis by Rapidan Group, there are only 10 or so distinct 10 day New Moon windows for the remainder of 2012. If one removes the sandstorm prone months of April, July and September, there are 7 periods in which a military strike is realistic. Also CVN 65 is moving at a snail’s pace and is just now approaching the Straits of Gibraltar. Since any action will likely not take place unless 3 aircraft carriers are in the vicinity, and because the ICE yesterday instituted ultra-short term trading spike curbs in crude, starting April 1, one can likely eliminate the immediately proximal March 17-27 window. Which leaves six. Our advice would be to buy up OTM calls in Brent in the days just ahead of the start of any such window, as any “surprise” attack will have a uplifting impact on all combustible assets, doubly so for levered ones.
From Rapidan Group
Timing Considerations
Based on press reports, officials see high odds of an attack sometime between 2Q12 and the end of the year, with most pointing to 2Q or 3Q.
If Israel elects to conduct a conventional military strike, the optimal conditions would be moonless and cloudless nights. “Operation Orchard,” Israel’s attack on Syria’s reactor at Al-Kibar on Sep 6, 2007, took place 5 days before the new moon. This suggests windows starting about 5 days before a new moon and ending five days after – see the table below. Low humidity is also ideal, but not required.
Attackers would want to avoid sandstorms, which have afflicted Iran in April, July, and September in recent years. Last year, a large sandstorm in mid-April hit 20 provinces, forcing the shutdown of schools and businesses. Sandstorms are visible and predictable, however, and would be taken into account by planners.
For non-kinetic options, climate is not a consideration to our knowledge. Presumably, they would be tried before kinetic ones and only after leaders were convinced Iran had not yet felt enough pain to compel it to freeze enrichment.
And here is the latest naval update from Stratfor. Keep your eye on CVN 65. It should be well inside the Mediterranean within a few days.
sensetti says:
The war drums get louder every day.
US Lawmaker: Iran May Have Hezbollah Operatives in US
The Republican chairman of the House Homeland Security Committee, Peter King, said the Iranian-backed militant group Hezbollah may have hundreds of operatives based in the United States
“Now, as Iran moves closer to nuclear weapons, and there is increasing concern over war between Iran and Israel, we must also focus on Iran’s secret operatives and their number one terrorist proxy force, Hezbollah, which we know is in America,” said King.
King said there are 84 Iranian diplomats in New York at the United Nations and in Washington, some of whom he said are likely to be spies
http://www.voanews.com/english/news/usa/143709036.html
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21st March 2012 at 10:32 pm
Stucky says:
A LOT of people … on one side or the other …. are gonna look real STUPID on April 1st.
I will go on record as saying that there won’t be Jack Shit happening on April 1st … other than the normal horseshit that happens in this country and around the world.
We shall soon see if I’m the stupid one. Or, someone else. lol
Oh .. and if some shit happens on April 2nd … that doesn’t count!! Stick to your guns, man!!
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21st March 2012 at 12:12 am
sensetti says:
stuck
If they wanna go in on a dark night April one would be out. It’s either tomorrow or the next window is April 21
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21st March 2012 at 1:27 am
Reverse Engineer says:
Birdman of the Netherlands: Daedelus LIVES!
OK folks, of all the Wild Science stuff out there of late, this one is the BEST.
Jarno Smeets, a Dutch Engineer claims to have finally achieved the legendary Bird Style Human Powered Flight of Daedelus. Rumours are flying its fake CGI.
Looks real to me. I’m taking a Poll on DD to see how many people think this is for real. Check out the video, its AMAZING if its for real.
http://www.doomsteaddiner.org/forum/index.php?topic=111.0
RE
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21st March 2012 at 1:51 am
Zara says:
RE, this video explains how it works. Looks authentic to me. The guy uses a couple of wii controllers to initiate movement.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=KgD0fYAaLq4
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21st March 2012 at 2:43 am
Reverse Engineer says:
I agree Zara, not a total “fake”. Its definitely not completely Human Powered though, there is supplemental power input here. Still pretty impressive stuff.
RE
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21st March 2012 at 3:08 am
Zara says:
Its not supplemental power, the motors do all the work. There are no mechanical linkages, all he does is move his arms. It can’t have much battery life. This is a demonstration craft entirely. I’m still not sure how it works as the wings should rotate as well as flap. It it is a hoax, it’s one someone put a lot of effort into.
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21st March 2012 at 3:21 am
Reverse Engineer says:
If you watch his Arm Movements, they time perfectly with the wing flaps. So even though the motors may be providing most of the power, his arm motions are definitely adding some power into the wing movements. What the actual contribution is can’t be discerned, but there has to be some contribution. I don;t think he is waving his arms just for visual effect. Even if it just helps to overcome inertia for the motors in changing the movement from up0 to down, that is a big contribution. He’s also pretty clearly out of breath at the end, so I think he was working pretty hard.
At the very least, if it all works as claimed, it would provide a means for a much lower energy usage flight system than typical out of internal combustion or jet enegines.
RE
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21st March 2012 at 3:35 am
Zara says:
RE, you don’t understand. He is holding a wii controller in each hand. That’s why it’s so coordinated.
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21st March 2012 at 3:40 am
Reverse Engineer says:
No, I get he has a Wii controller in each hand. But WHY bother doing the Pec/Deltoid action with the arms? Just for SHOW? He can oeprate the Wii controllers with his FINGERS. He wouldn;t need to move his whole ARM for that. But he does. You think that is just for show purposes?
RE
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21st March 2012 at 3:48 am
Zara says:
I don’t know enough about how wii works to have an opinion. My guess is that the sensitivity is based on the programming. Full arm movements would allow for a much greater range of control than if you simply flicked the controller up and down.
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21st March 2012 at 3:53 am
Reverse Engineer says:
Just have to wait and see as more info comes out. Jarno has certainly got a lot of publicity here, and its pretty obvious Myth Busters will take a crew out to see what is up there. They do pretty good debunking in a Pop Science sort of manner.
RE
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21st March 2012 at 3:59 am
stan says:
They are keeping all negative or critical comments in a data base, along with your name, DOB, SS# address and phone number for future reference. At the appointed time, all persons who have ever made derogatory remarks against the government or anyone in the government, especially King Obama, will be rounded up and shipped to prisons- never to return.
This will happen in the next few years. So, say what you want, type what you want, express your opinions freely. But know this: They are watching. They are listening. They are keeping records. And they have no human feelings or conscience. They would not give it a thought to kill you and shit on your grave.
Remember the White Rose in Nazi Germany?
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21st March 2012 at 5:23 am
Yojimbo says:
I would like to hear more from Muck About regarding his predictions for the near term future. I respect his acumen and, as a layman, I rely on him.
Any thoughts you wish to share, Muck?
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21st March 2012 at 7:59 am
newsjunkie says:
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21st March 2012 at 9:14 am
Muck About says:
@Yojimbo: With the weapon systems available today, the blather about “dark of the moon”, “no sandstorms” et al only hold water if men are making a move on the ground. If men move, you need darkness so only sophisticated detection systems could see them and fire on them. Not a lot of sophistication in the ME.
I have adopted a ‘wait and see’ attitude now that others have started paying attention to the not so subtile movements required by war.
I’ll stand by my call short of something really nasty happening elsewhere that would delay it. Sadly, as you look at the big picture there are very few pieces of the puzzle that need to be put into place (if any).
Thanks for the complement, and Old Muck will be quiet unless something else comes up of import that applies to the situation.
MA
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21st March 2012 at 11:01 am
Thinker says:
Has anyone determined if the rumors of a Chinese coup are valid or not?
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21st March 2012 at 11:08 am
Celtic Tiger says:
An awful lot of momentous events have happened on April 19th. I see that is in the middle of the first window.
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21st March 2012 at 11:28 am
Obama's hemorrhoids says:
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21st March 2012 at 11:45 am
Administrator says:
China, Russia Voice “US In Iran” Ire
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/22/2012 14:39 -0400
In a number of stories in China’s top newspapers today, the US has been slammed for its moves to restrict Iran’s oil trade which could see Chinese banks sanctioned. As The People’s Daily noted, Hong Lei (a Foreign Ministry spokesperson) warned such unilateral action was not only wrong but could exacerbate the stand-off over Iran’s nuclear program. Arguing that China ‘imports oil based on its economic development needs’ without violating relevant resolutions of the UN Security Council and undermining the third party’s and international community’s interests, he noted China will not accept the practice of saddling unilateral sanctions on the third country. Adding to this, China Daily notes the typical UN blah-dom of Wang Min’s comments of the “more pragmatic importance to be firmly committed to dialogue and negotiations in order to properly solve the Iranian nuclear issue”. While China is clearly ‘disappointed’ in the US efforts, Russia turns the dial to 11 with its comments that the US efforts are inflaming, as Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Tuesday, “Scientists in nearly all countries….are convinced that strikes may slow down the Iranian nuclear program. But they will never cancel it, close it down or eliminate it” warning that Iran will have no option but to develop nuclear weapons should the US strike. Well you can’t please all the people all the time eh? Just ask Ben.
Strikes May Force Iran To Develop Nuclear Weapons
MOSCOW – Strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites may force it to develop nuclear weapons and trigger more risks to the non-proliferation regime, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Tuesday.
“Scientists in nearly all countries….are convinced that strikes may slow down the Iranian nuclear program. But they will never cancel it, close it down or eliminate it,” Lavrov said in an interview with the radio Kommersant FM.
He warned that Iran may have no option but to develop nuclear weapons in response to the strikes.
“Even the CIA and other US agencies admit now there is no information to confirm the political decision of the Iranian administration to produce nuclear weapons. I am almost confident that such a decision will be made after strikes on Iran,” Lavrov said.
“Actually, this aggressiveness creates more risks to the non-proliferation regime than strengthens it,” he said.
Russia has called for the resumption of negotiations between Iran and major mediators including Russia, US, France, Britain, China and Germany.
China Legally Imports Iranian Oil
BEIJING, March 21 (Xinhua) — China legally imports oil from Iran through normal channels in a reasonable and fair manner, a Foreign Ministry spokesman said on Wednesday.
Spokesman Hong Lei said China imports oil based on its economic development needs without violating relevant resolutions of the UN Security Council and undermining the third party’s and international community’s interests.
“China opposes any country implementing unilateral sanctions on the other country according to its domestic law,” the spokesman said, adding that China will not accept the practice of saddling unilateral sanctions on the third country.
Hong made the remark at a daily press briefing when asked to comment on Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s announcement on Iran sanctions.
Clinton issued a statement on Tuesday saying that the U.S. will initially exempt Japan and 10 European nations from its new tough sanctions on Iran, saying these countries have “significantly” reduced their oil imports from the Islamic republic, according to reports.
Clinton said she would report to Congress that sanctions will not apply to the financial institutions in these countries for a renewable period of 180 days.
The 10 European beneficiaries are Belgium, Britain, the Czech Republic, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland and Spain.
Twelve countries including China, India and the Republic of Korea should reduce oil imports from Iran before the end of July or face sanctions, according to reports.
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21st March 2012 at 4:28 pm