Jimmy is in fine form this morning, obliterating Kudlow, oil company whore Yergin, Obama and Romney. The energy racket is in his wheelhouse and he never fails to knock it out of the park.
Unthinkable
By James Howard Kunstler
on April 2, 2012 9:29 AM
In the drunken, drug-crazed twilight of its run as Leader of the Free World, America’s collective imagination swerves from one breakdown lane to the other while the highway patrol throws a donuts-and-porn party down at headquarters and the news media searches the gutter on hands-and-knees looking for the spot where it dropped its brains.
The other day, Larry Kudlow, the king popinjay at CNBC, told viewers that the US has over a trillion barrels of oil waiting to be drill-drill-drilled on our way to “energy independence.” This is the kind of malarkey that America thrives on these days, the way yeasts thrive on sugary mash. It’s a complete falsehood, of course, but the working dead over at The New York Times said substantially the same thing in a front-page story the week before. The Timespersons have only one source for their stories: Daniel Yergin, chief public relations pimp for the oil industry, because he makes it so easy for them by providing all the information they will ever need. The oil and gas companies would like to direct the fire-hose of loose and easy money out there into their stock prices – building to the magic moment when, Mozillo-like, the executives can dump shares, cut, and run for the far hills where no SEC officer or DOJ attorney will ever think to look. This is just another racket in an all-rackets society.
The fantasy of energy independence therefore takes shape as a “settled matter” as we lurch toward elections. The arch-moron Mitt Romney will inveigh against Obama for holding the oil dogs back while Obama pretends to spank the oil companies for gouging the public on that alleged Niagara flow of new oil. None of them understands the true situation, which is that the USA is enjoying one last gulp of a very expensive oil cocktail with the last few dollars it can prestidigitate out of the central bank’s magic box, and then there is no more even notional surplus wealth to blow on more drinks.
And it isn’t even much of a gulp. US production of “all liquids” – which includes methane gas drippings, ethanol, etc – went from 7.2 million barrels a day in 2004 to about 7.7 in 2011. We use about 19 million barrels a day, down about a million from peak US consumption before the financial crash of 2008. The reason it’s down: Americans are going broke, one household and one small business at a time. Shale oil production is approaching half a million barrels a day. That’s about 45 minutes of daily go-power. It might go up to an hour-and-a-half before production of shale oil permanently crashes on the combination of fast-depleting wells and a lack of capital to keep drilling new ones at $8 million per well.
The story for shale gas is similar, except that initial production was so exorbitant that it drove the price down to nearly nothing (the $2 range), and the bust from that Ponzi will be even more spectacular than the shale oil. Everyone from Mr. Obama to the chiselers who run Citigroup maintain that there is a one hundred year supply of gas in the USA. They are going to be very disappointed. The public, on the other hand, will not even remember what they said as they burn down the cornfields in anguish.
I met a guy at the pumps last week who was filling up a pickup truck at least twice the size of mine a few yards away. I asked him how things were going fuel-wise with that monster Ram-Charger he was feeding. At more than $100 a fill-up, it was killing him he said. His line-of-work required him to drive all over the county incessantly. His reality was a bit different from the oil company execs promising limitless horizons of oil to CNBC-watching retirees desperate for some “yield” on investment in the face of ZIRP bond rates. The price of oil (and gasoline) may well crash again, but when it does, there will be fewer business reasons for anyone to drive around the county all the live-long day, and that guy’s Ram-Charger could fall into the hands of the re-po goon squad. He may never be able to get another one, either. No more money for truck loans. Capital shortage. Sorry.
This oil and gas thing cuts so many ways that the public will feel like it is gargling Gillette blue blades. Just add up the total tonnage of steel necessary to keep this Ponzi going and you would reach a discouraging conclusion: this thing has nowhere to go but swift and implacable contraction. The ultimate destination of “energy independence” will be a nation with no cars and trucks to run. We’ll get there, you’ll see. But that is speaking the unthinkable.
Ron says:
I think jims full of crap.His message of doom gets old.
Between NG and actually trying to get oil out of the ground i dont see a shortage in my life time.Now if i can afford it?thats anouther thing.
I enjoy reading about how much oil is left,like the folks who know how many fish are in the ocean.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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2nd April 2012 at 11:37 am
Persnickety says:
@ Ron:
http://www.lmgtfy.com/?q=how+many+fish+are+left+in+the+ocean
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2nd April 2012 at 12:18 pm
Stucky says:
@Snicky
OMG. That is hilarious!! I’ve never seen that website before. Well done.
.
@Ron
One does NOT need to count every barrel of oil to very accurately know how much of the crushed dinosaurs remain. One does NOT need to count every little fishy to very accurately know how many fishies are left.
You might want to google — now that Snicky has shown you the way — “statistical sampling”.
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2nd April 2012 at 12:40 pm
AWD says:
Amazing, even people that come on TBP are complete dumbshits. We use 19 million barrels of oil a day. 19 million. It’s not even comprehensible. The sheep and idiots like Ron think there’s an endless supply, enough for the chinks and dot heads and us and everyone else. Saudi has a finite supply, Venezuela has a finite supply. Our planet has a finite supply. The Chinese are now buying more oil from Saudi than we are. Every “real American” has a monster pick-up getting 12 miles to the gallon, requiring a Ben Franklin to fill up. It’s not going to end well.
FYI:
Popinjay may refer to:
* Old-fashioned term for a parrot (cf. German Papagei)
* A dandy or foppish person
* Popinjay (sport), a shooting sport that can be performed with either rifles or archery equipment
inveigh:
Verb: Speak or write about (something) with great hostility.
Synonyms: vituperate – abuse
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2nd April 2012 at 12:50 pm
Stucky says:
JKES
Stock prices are at a multi-year all time high.
Obamacare will LIBERATE another $17 TRILLION into the economy.
Dems are now saying if Obamacare is defeated it will actually help him win re-election.
We are locking up lawbreakers all over the country as police arrest everyone ASAP — even 10 year olds who steal a fucking tricycle.
Obama’s Green Initiative will save or create 39,541,247 jobs.
Kunstler better jump on the Gravy Train before it’s too late.
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2nd April 2012 at 1:25 pm
Stan says:
80 million barrels a day is a lot Takes more and more to get it
Out. When you see them drilling 5 miles below the ocean surface
That is a clue.
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2nd April 2012 at 1:40 pm
Mr. Happy says:
Whenever one reads an article by James Howard Kuntsler, do keep in mind his exceptional insight and interpretation relating to the last election. No, he didn’t support Ron Paul.
And here’s what James Howard said 48 hours before the election in 2008.
http://www.comicbookgalaxy.com/blog/labels/end%20of%20the%20world%20watch.html
‘Have you had enough yet? If not, how much further does your nation need to fall? If so, get out tomorrow and start working to make up for all that we’ve sat back and allowed to happen. If Barack Obama doesn’t take possession of the White House on January 20th, then there really is no hope left for peaceful change in the United States, and nothing left to talk about. We can take action by voting tomorrow, or we can condemn ourselves to a much more violent and lengthy period of change, one from which there never will really be a hope of recovery. I’m hoping we can do it in a day, and my wife and I will be up before dawn to do our part.
How about you?’
And here he is again in 24 Hour Gold on January 21, 2012.
‘I’ve had enough of Obama, though I voted for him in 2008′
In my humble opinion, James Howard Kuntsler is the Thomas Freidman of ‘peak oil’.
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2nd April 2012 at 1:40 pm
Doppel-Ron says:
@ Stan: “Takes more and more to get it Out. When you see them drilling 5 miles below the ocean surface”
Those people are a bunch of morons. When I want gas I just buy it at a gas station. Why on earth would I go drilling under the ocean for it? Those oil company guys must be a bunch of dimwitted Elmer Fudd types, just want their meat raw instead of getting it at the grocery store where it’s made fresh daily.
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2nd April 2012 at 2:09 pm
JESUS CHRISTY says:
Papa gonna fuck you americans.
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2nd April 2012 at 2:13 pm
flash says:
JHK ” This oil and gas thing cuts so many ways that the public will feel like it is gargling Gillette blue blades. ”
heh…heh…heh…
So much for HZK’s poke about B-12 shots turning JHK into Richard Simmons .
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2nd April 2012 at 3:55 pm
Kill Bill says:
One does NOT need to count every barrel of oil to very accurately know how much of the crushed dinosaurs remain -Stucco
The La Brea tar pits have two trillion barrels of oil! We need to siphon here siphon now!
=)
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2nd April 2012 at 4:00 pm