The MSM, politicians and Wall Street keep spinning, but it ain’t working. Consumer confidence is dropping. Contracts for home sales have fallen for four straight months. Consumers have stopped using their debit cards because there is no cash left in their bank accounts to debit. Obama is shitting his pants as the economy is clearly back in recession. It should be painfully obvious even to a dimwit like Jim Cramer or one of the other airheaded CNBC bimbos by November that the U.S. is in recession. By then the stock market should be down another 20%.
Three pieces of info this morning further confirm what John Hussman has been saying for a couple months. Unemployment claims are rising. How can this be if millions of jobs are being created as Obama has been declaring? Tomorrow the unemployment rate will drop because another million people left the workforce. If we can just get another 20 million people to leave the workforce, we’ll have full employment and a rate of 0%. Congress will not help Obama with any more bullshit stimulus solutions. His re-election will now depend on him using the race card or creating a fake international crisis to distract the ignorant masses.
The government is great at revising numbers after the fact. The revisions always seem to go the same way – worse. GDP for the first quarter was revised down to 1.9%. That is pretty horrific considering the great winter weather and the fact we are supposedly in the 3rd year of an economic recovery. But, it is much worse than reported by the government drones at the BEA. They use a fake inflation number to calculate GDP. The real GDP in the 1st quarter was -2%. We’ve been in recession. Anyone living in the real world knows it, but they want to believe the spin.
I consider Kohls one of the best run retailers in the U.S. They appeal to the middle class because their prices are reasonable, they’ve got a good selection, and their stores are conveniently located. Their same store sales are in decline. Their customers are the ones struggling. The gig is up. The consumer has hit the wall. The country has more retailers than consumers have money. This will be ugly.
Lastly, the 10 Year Treasury bond now sits at 1.59%. This is a 66 year low. If the economy was recovering and jobs were being created, why would interest rates be plummeting to all time lows? For comparison, the lowest it fell during the worst of the 2008/2009 crisis was 2.1%. One year ago the rate was 3.23%. How can the nimrods in the MSM spin this as a positive? How can Bernanke begin a QE3 with a straight face when interest rates are at all-time lows?
Spin does not pay the bills. The bills are coming due and the shit is about to hit the fan. Get ready.
Weekly U.S. jobless claims jump 10,000 to 383,000
By Jeffry Bartash
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) – The number of Americans who filed requests for jobless benefits climbed by 10,000 last week to 383,000, the highest level in five weeks, the U.S. Labor Department said Thursday. Claims from two weeks ago were revised up to 373,000 from 370,000. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had projected claims would fall to a seasonally adjusted 370,000 in the week ended May 26. The average of new claims over the past four weeks, meanwhile, rose by 3,750 to 374,500. Continuing claims decreased by 36,000 to a seasonally adjusted 3.24 million in the week ended May 19, the Labor Department said. Continuing claims are reported with a one-week lag. About 6.14 million people received some kind of state or federal benefit in the week ended May 12, down 30,753 from the prior week. Total claims are reported with a two-week lag.
U.S. Q1 GDP revised down to 1.9% annual rate
By Greg Robb
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) – The U.S. economy expanded at a 1.9% annual rate in the first quarter, slower than the 2.2% gain estimated a month ago, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The revisions to real gross domestic product were largely due to lower inventory building and trade. Economists were predicting a revision to about 1.8% rate. The economy expanded at a 3.0% rate in the fourth quarter. Consumer spending rose 2.7% in the first quarter, down from the prior estimate of a 2.9% gain. A key measure of inflation, the personal consumption expenditure price index, rose a revised 2.5%, compared with the initial estimate of a 2.4% gain. Corporate profits before-tax rose 13.2% in the quarter, up from a 0.4% decline in the fourth quarter. Over the past year, corporate profits were up 14.9%.
Kohl’s Corporation Reports May Comparable Store Sales
MENOMONEE FALLS, Wis., May 31, 2012 (BUSINESS WIRE) — Kohl’s Corporationreported today that for the four-week month ended May 26, 2012 total sales decreased 2.6 percent and comparable store sales decreased 4.2 percent from the four-week month ended May 28, 2011.
For the year-to-date period, total sales increased 0.8 percent and comparable store sales decreased 0.9 percent.
Kevin Mansell, Kohl’s chairman, president and chief executive officer, commented, “May sales were lower than our expectations and, as a result, we now expect second quarter comparable store sales to be modestly negative. From a line of business perspective, we saw strength in Accessories. Our Men’s and Women’s businesses also outperformed the company average. The South Central and West were the strongest regions. We made some progress in building our inventory levels, but continue to expect lower units to hinder our sales until the Back-to-School season.”
ragman says:
Play the race card to what end? The race card is tapped out too. Black on White crime is totally out of control and the sheeple are starting to wake up. A guaranteed increase(this summer) in Negro flash-mob attacks, Negro zombie face eatings(I just made that up), and just-plain black shitty attitudes will be the final nails in Obongo’s coffin. Negro fatigue is setting in, big time.
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31st May 2012 at 9:33 am
Administrator says:
Albert Edwards Has Some Words Of Discouragement: Welcome To S&P 500 Hell
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/31/2012 09:25 -0400
It seems that it was only 4 months ago that Albert Edwards was channeling Dante when he advised clients that “All Hope Must Be Crushed For A True Bull Market To Emerge.” It would appear that the SocGen strategist still has some bullish friends he wants to lose because he just released the follow up.
“As 30y German Bund yields slide below 2% and rapidly converge towards Japanese rates, we have a taster of what is to come in the US and UK in the months ahead. We still see US 10y yields – even now making new all-time lows – falling below 1% as hard landings occur in China and the US. The secular equity valuation bear market began in 2000 and renewed global recession will be the trigger to catalyse the third and hopefully final, gut-wrenching phase of valuation de-rating. Expect the S&P500 to decline decisively below its March 2009, 666 intraday low. All hope will be crushed.”
We have long said that excess “hope” remained a major impediment to the end of this equity bear market and we believe there is still too much of it about. There won’t be by the time this is over. Investors will lose all hope, most particularly in their belief that policy makers have any idea what they are doing. We saw the same in Japan. As the investors now see the full-frontal naked impotence of their last two supposed saviours 1) the China growth story and 2) the Fed, there will be savage market retribution. In the words of George W Bush, “This sucker’s going down”.
And just in case someone missed the message:
A word on the China stimulus package: amid the mounting evidence of a hard landing – that word is FUTILE.
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31st May 2012 at 9:43 am
Administrator says:
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31st May 2012 at 10:11 am
ThePessimisticChemist says:
Well, its pretty obvious our country never went into recovery mode. I just wonder when it will “officially” slip into a double-dip recession.
This summer? Early fall? Or will it hold off until Obamney takes office next year and then promptly go to hell in a hand basket.
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31st May 2012 at 10:13 am
Administrator says:
TPC
We’re in recession today. The government will admit it 6 months from now.
Chicago PMI Plunges To 52.7, Lowest Print Since September 2009
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/31/2012 09:47 -0400
The latest economic data point comes out, which is the Chicago PMI, not to be confused with the meaninglessly duplicate MarkIt ISM Manufacturing PMI which was released earlier this month, and sure enough it confirms once again we are on a full glideslope to more QE. At 52.7, it collapsed from the prior print of 56.8, and missing expectations of 56.2. This was the lowest print since September of 2009. And scene. NEW QE is now 100% assured.
Digging through the numbers:
•Production and New Orders lowest since September 2009
•Prices Paid lowest since September 2010, Employment rate of growth has slowed
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31st May 2012 at 10:18 am
ThePessimisticChemist says:
September 2009 brought on some of the toughest times me and my wife ever had to endure. Luckily we are prepared for round two.
The rich bankers can bite me, if I didn’t have to use a bank I wouldn’t. Why can’t businesses pay in cash?
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31st May 2012 at 10:24 am
Bob says:
It looks like the trend has switched to down, and will stay that way for some time. There will be some upward, countertrend spikes. But unless the trend is slow in developing, I will have to change my mind about projecting the election.
Obama will lose to Romney if the markets continue to fall between now and November. This would complicate things for those who want to see the socialist, free shit movement discredited. It would mean the destruction of the mainstream Republican party, and the center of the political spectrum. It would leave the freedom advocates on one side, and the free shitters on the other, fighting it out for control of the country’s destiny. Perhaps that was what to expect all along.
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31st May 2012 at 10:36 am
Tampa Gold says:
Businesses can’t pay in cash because then our masters can not control us. It’s all about control.
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31st May 2012 at 12:40 pm
platoplubius says:
Admin said,
“Congress will not help Obama with any more bullshit stimulus solutions.”
In an “emergency” does Obama need the support of Congress let alone their permission?
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31st May 2012 at 12:45 pm
platoplubius says:
@ThePessimisticChemist
“Why can’t businesses pay in cash?”
Because, then, you might be considered a “terrorist” or involved with the Mexican Drug Cartels!!! LOL!
Anyone dealing with a lot of cash is supposed to be reported!
Just check out this 8 minute video hosted by renknowned Denver Broncos Quarterback John Elway and paid for by the Dept of Homeland Security and State of Colorado. How many of the 8 signs that you might be a terrorist do you practice or exhibit?!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=–bgb2SMpZo
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31st May 2012 at 12:51 pm
DaveL says:
Admin says: “How can this be if millions of jobs are being created as Obama has been declaring?”
Because they can always go back to jobs SAVED if just created doesn’t fit anymore. That will sell to the majority of the electorate. The saved meme just doesn’t help if you bring it up while discussing Bain.Capital/Romney. Just like when Romney was Governor of MA and was 47th in job creation during his term. If you tell people that unemployment in MA went from 5.7% (lower than US average)to 4.6% (same as US average) during his 4 years, that wouldn’t look as bad. It’s hard to be high on the list of job creation if you didn’t have many unemployed people to begin with. And no, I don’t support Romney.
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31st May 2012 at 1:06 pm
ron says:
Considering the non performance of congress.It dosent matter who is president. 16 trillion means your broke and fcked. The lack of common sense support for Ron Paul is anouther example of how screwed we are.
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31st May 2012 at 1:19 pm
Tim says:
Ron,
Ron Paul has more support that the MSM would like us to believe. Everything is controlled. The financial markets, the media, our elections. Everything.
It’s very likely that we’ll see a decrease in U-3 tomorrow morning, but only because more Americans have dropped out of the work force. Yet most Americans will believe the BLS propaganda machine. Obama will be sure to mention the decrease in U-3 in his next campaign stop, and the eveving news will show him surrounded by patriotic Americans waving “Obama 2012″ signs.
Tim
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31st May 2012 at 1:33 pm
ThePessimisticChemist says:
@Plato –
I’m a scientist, this fact alone means I’m “terrorist” material. Add in the fact that I’m both a chemist AND a microbiologist and its a wonder I haven’t been picked up under NDA authority.
I understand that businesses would rather not keep the massive amounts of cash on hand it would take to pay their entire employee base, but banks aren’t fee these days. I don’t like that it costs me money just to access the money that I’ve earned the old fashioned way. Thats one step away from paying us in “coupons” that are only redeemable at the company’s general store they conveniently bought for the employees.
History repeats itself. This whole situation is just disgusting. People keep trying to make the up and coming election about Mormons vs. Blacks, they don’t see what is actually happening.
Gonna stop now. My e-rage is growing even as we speak.
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31st May 2012 at 2:04 pm
Kill Bill says:
Five Spiral Crash -GWB
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31st May 2012 at 3:48 pm
Kill Bill says:
People keep trying to make the up and coming election about Mormons vs. Blacks, they don’t see what is actually happening. -TPC
The Sparkle Box of Intentional Ignorance does that to its viewers.
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31st May 2012 at 4:09 pm
Muck About says:
I do not normally tout a book, but I’m reading Peter Schiff’s new book (2012) “The Real Crash : America’s Coming Bankruptcy” and I’d like to recommend it to everyone (Admin: It’s gotta go on the recommended list right at the top in BOLD LETTERS!).
He has hit the ball out of the park both the obligatory mini-history of why we are here right through the most clearly thought out ways to solve the problems I ever had the pleasure of reading. It is a must read.
The trouble is that it is so all encompassing that you are left with the quite correct feeling that without a “man on a white horse” or some such miraculous happening, there is no way under the sun that the combination of fixes and policy changes, proper fiscal actions and elimination of non-Constitutional Governmental departments can ever be done. To fix this country, put it back on the track we all know it needs to be and salvage the situation from a complete collapse, a whole slew of things have to happen at once or in very short order and I’m not sure we will ever see a leader of such magnetism and power to be able to do it all (short of a munificent and idealistic dictator who has but one thing he will do: Fix it all and then bow out and go fishing).
I won’t give more away about the book – but I’ve never read a better one and he deserves some kind of award for his efforts! You can give him a little one by buying the book!
MA
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31st May 2012 at 6:17 pm
Administrator says:
Muck
Did I ever tell you the story of Peter Schiff and Avalon? At this year’s Minyanville Festivus we were sitting directly across the table from Peter Schiff and his young honey while we listened to the U2 cover band. He was pretty loaded. Avalon was also loaded. She desperately wanted to chit chat with Peter and ask him if he read TBP. I had to keep her from making a scene. Then I held her up as we staggered 20 blocks back to our hotel.
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31st May 2012 at 7:24 pm
Kill Bill says:
So did Schiff talk about anything of import at this festivus?
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31st May 2012 at 7:33 pm
Avalon says:
Omg..lol…need to explain myself here. I had just enjoyed the BEST chicken wings I ever ate in my life, and I felt like Peter would have loved them too. Jim thought I would embarass him and wouldn’t let me offer any. It was too loud to chitchat but I did manage to ask him if he and the other guy he was with were brothers. Ahhh, good times with Peter Schiff.
Peter if you are reading this, Ii hope you got to try those wings, let me know!
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31st May 2012 at 7:37 pm
Colma Rising says:
PSEC
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31st May 2012 at 8:15 pm