Let’s see how accurate these bozos are this year. They’ve been warning about terrible hurricanes for the last four years due to global warming and their forecasts have been duds. When they can accurately tell me what will happen tomorrow, I might start paying attention to their long range forecasts. How much do you want to bet that Mitt Romney’s advisors are cheering for two or three Category 4 hurricanes entering the Gulf of Mexico this summer and fall? They would love for oil to spike up to $120 per barrel just before the election.
NOAA raises hurricane season prediction despite expected El Niño
Updated outlook calls for near- or above-normal Atlantic season
August 9, 2012
Satellite image of Hurricane Ernesto taken on Aug. 7, 2012 in the Gulf of Mexico.
(Credit: NOAA)
This year’s Atlantic hurricane season got off to a busy start, with 6 named storms to date, and may have a busy second half, according to the updated hurricane season outlook issued today by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service. The updated outlook still indicates a 50 percent chance of a near-normal season, but increases the chance of an above-normal season to 35 percent and decreases the chance of a below-normal season to only 15 percent from the initial outlook issued in May.
Across the entire Atlantic Basin for the season – June 1 to November 30 – NOAA’s updated seasonal outlook projects a total (which includes the activity-to-date of tropical storms Alberto, Beryl, Debbie, Florence and hurricanes Chris and Ernesto) of:
- 12 to 17 named storms (top winds of 39 mph or higher), including:
- 5 to 8 hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher), of which:
- 2 to 3 could be major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of at least 111 mph)
The numbers are higher from the initial outlook in May, which called for 9-15 named storms, 4-8 hurricanes and 1-3 major hurricanes. Based on a 30-year average, a normal Atlantic hurricane season produces 12 named storms, six hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
“We are increasing the likelihood of an above-normal season because storm-conducive wind patterns and warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures are now in place in the Atlantic,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at the Climate Prediction Center. “These conditions are linked to the ongoing high activity era for Atlantic hurricanes that began in 1995. Also, strong early-season activity is generally indicative of a more active season.”
However, NOAA seasonal climate forecasters also announced today that El Niño will likely develop in August or September.
“El Niño is a competing factor, because it strengthens the vertical wind shear over the Atlantic, which suppresses storm development. However, we don’t expect El Niño’s influence until later in the season,” Bell said.
“We have a long way to go until the end of the season, and we shouldn’t let our guard down,” said Laura Furgione, acting director of NOAA’s National Weather Service. “Hurricanes often bring dangerous inland flooding as we saw a year ago in the Northeast with Hurricane Irene and Tropical Storm Lee. Even people who live hundreds of miles from the coast need to remain vigilant through the remainder of the season.”
“It is never too early to prepare for a hurricane,” said Tim Manning, FEMA’s deputy administrator for protection and national preparedness. “We are in the middle of hurricane season and now is the time to get ready. There are easy steps you can take to get yourself and your family prepared. Visit www.ready.gov to learn more.”
bluestem says:
Bring them on, we need the rain. John
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10th August 2012 at 11:58 am
TeresaE says:
Scientists continue to believe that words, formulas and currently in vogue biased research, gives them the ability to control the uncontrollable.
Just like pharmaceuticals and other chemical manufacturers.
They all need to go back are re-read Jurassic Park.
Chaos theory is just about the only theory I still subscribe blindly too.
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10th August 2012 at 12:16 pm
Bruce says:
“We have a long way to go until the end of the season, and we shouldn’t let our guard down,” said Laura Furgione, acting director of NOAA’s National Weather Service. “Hurricanes often bring dangerous inland flooding ”
Laura has finally concluded that Hurricanes can be dangerous and can cause flooding. I’m so glade she let us in on that piece of little known yet important information.
“It is never too early to prepare for a hurricane,” said Tim Manning, FEMA’s deputy administrator for protection and national preparedness. “We are in the middle of hurricane season and now is the time to get ready. There are easy steps you can take to get yourself and your family prepared.”
But if you follow Tim’s easy preparation steps you are defined as a “domestic terrorist”. Your neighbors are being indoctrinated by slogans at WalMart to turn you in. That means if someone at FEMA or DHS says so your going to FEMA camp where you may have to wait for 70 or 80 years before you can talk to your lawyer.
With these Government agency’s larger than ever, more numerous than ever, more convoluted than ever and more redundant then ever all coordinated by communications and logistical systems designed by civil servants when they aren’t watching porn and miss-allocating money what could go wrong?
People who get hit by a monster hurricane are so fucking Doomed they’d probably be better off if the boy scouts were in charge and trained specifically to hand out free yellow rubber ducky flotation devices made in China.
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10th August 2012 at 12:39 pm
Hope@ZeroKelvin says:
We will have biblical rain and flooding because I just spend $8K upgrading my sprinkler system AND I won 10 free car detailings in a raffle recently.
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10th August 2012 at 1:35 pm
TPC says:
I should have been a weatherman.
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10th August 2012 at 3:28 pm
Muck About says:
Hurricane forecasting is like trying to time bodily functions a week before you need to go.
You’re gonna miss it by three steps or get there three step to soon no matter what you do..
It’s called “Too many variables!” and the models only have a very rough grip on reality.
MA
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10th August 2012 at 4:29 pm
IndenturedServant says:
“When they can accurately tell me what will happen tomorrow, I might start paying attention to their long range forecasts.”
I’m not even sure I could trust them then. In my area I have heard them inaccurately describe what happened yesterday and even totally fuck up the “current” weather! I shit you not!
One morning when I was still a cement mason, I lived approximately 20 blocks from what is generally accepted to be the best network weather news in our area. I got out of bed before dawn. The curtains were all drawn closed as I went about getting ready to go to work. I had the TV on to catch the weather report. Mr. Expert weather forecaster was cheerfully describing the beautiful day in store for us. As I walked out the door it was pouring rain and had been doing so for sometime. The entire sky was socked in. If Mr. Expert had just stuck his head out the window he might have noticed this. Before noon that day we experienced rain, high wind, sleet and a hail storm. That was about ten years ago and I have not watched a local weather report since then.
I_S
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10th August 2012 at 12:48 pm
DaveL says:
“TPC says:
I should have been a weatherman.”
Then you could be a friend of Obama, like Bill Ayers.
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10th August 2012 at 9:24 pm