The CEOs of the largest companies in the country have spoken. In the last six months, their expectations about the economy have plunged by 32% and are now at levels from 2009. Remember 2009? The economy was a shambles. These same CEOs and their fellow executives are selling their company stock at panic levels. If you thought small businesses were optimistic, you’d be wrong. Their index is at recessionary levels.
So if you exclude large businesses and small businesses, then everything is just great. The MSM, Obama and the Wall Street shysters are telling you to buy stocks. All is well.
America’s CEOs Sharply Reduce Expectations for U.S. Economy
Policy Uncertainty Drives Weak Outlook on Sales, Hiring, Capital Spending and GDP
Washington – The results of Business Roundtable’s(BRT) third quarter CEO Economic Outlook Survey for 2012 show a further downturn in CEOs’ expectations for sales, capital spending and hiring for the next six months. The Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Survey Index decreased to 66.0 in the third quarter of 2012 from 89.1 in the second quarter of 2012, the lowest reading since the third quarter of 2009 and the third largest single quarter drop in the survey’s history.
“CEOs foresee slower overall economic growth for 2012 and have lower expectations for sales, capital expenditures and hiring compared to last quarter,” said Jim McNerney, Chairman of Business Roundtable and Chairman, President and CEO of The Boeing Company. “The downshift in quarterly sentiment reflects continuing concern about the strength of the recovery, including uncertainty over the approaching fiscal cliff and accompanying debates about the tax code, sequestration and the debt ceiling.”
Survey Results
The survey’s key findings from this quarter and the second quarter of 2012 include:
In terms of the overall U.S. economy, Business Roundtable members estimate real GDP will grow by 1.9 percent in 2012, down from last quarter’s estimate of 2.1 percent.
Third Quarter 2012 CEO Economic Outlook Survey Index
The Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Survey Index – a composite index of CEO expectations for the next six months of sales, capital spending and employment – trended downward to 66.0 in the third quarter of 2012 from 89.1 in the second quarter of 2012. This marks the lowest point for the index since the third quarter of 2009.
Business Roundtable’s CEO Economic Outlook Survey, conducted quarterly since the fourth quarter of 2002, provides a forward-looking view of the economy by BRT member CEOs.
The survey was completed between August 30 and September 14, 2012. Responses were received from 138 member CEOs, 65 percent of the total BRT membership. The percentages in some categories may not equal 100 due to rounding. Results of this and all previous surveys can be found at http://www.brt.org/ceo_survey.
Business Roundtable (BRT) is an association of chief executive officers of leading U.S. companies with more than $7.3 trillion in annual revenues and nearly 16 million employees. BRT member companies comprise nearly a third of the total value of the U.S. stock market and invest more than $150 billion annually in research and development – equal to 61 percent of U.S. private R&D spending. Our companies pay $182 billion in dividends to shareholders and generate nearly $500 billion in sales for small and medium-sized businesses annually.
It’s Time to Take Money Off the Table: Here’s Where to Begin
Back on June 5, when fear was palpable following a sharp market
retreat, I suggested here at Minyanville that is was a good time to buy stocks.
back then, and you’ve enjoyed the upside. Now, however, it’s time to take some money off the table. How so? After all, Europe seems to be stabilizing, and the Fed just announced another round of quantitative easing, or QE3. All of this is reassuring, right? Maybe, but I see four solid reasons for a pullback here. 1) Insiders are turning decidedly bearish. 2) Investors are turning much more bullish, a contrarian signal. Technical indicators support this, suggesting that the market is toppy. 3) Third quarter earnings will show a lot more weakness than many investors expect. 4) The same market strategist who made the bullish call back in June has turned bearish — Michael Painchaud of Market Profile Theorems, who has a decent record at calling market turns. “We are now in a distribution phase,” he maintains.
Few Positive Signs for Future, Little Change Likely Long Term
Despite a disappointing jobs report, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index gained 1.7 points, rising to 92.9, in August. The Index showed some positive signs; employment indicators for the fourth quarter improved substantially, as did plans for capital outlays and expectations for business conditions. However, few employers continue to think the current period is a good time to expand. The percent of owners viewing the current period as a bad time to expand due to political uncertainty reached a new record high for this business cycle at 22%.
Thinker says:
This is why the MSM will be talking only about consumer outlook surveys — they’re all “improving” due to manipulation or as a result of the positive propaganda of the last month.
Well-loved. Like or Dislike:
7 
0
2nd October 2012 at 9:50 pm
Chronic Agitator says:
Yep, as hard as I try to increase sales by allotting more funds to advertising, marketing and sales staff, gross revenues are shrinking faster this year than ever before. I do not understand the reasons for this. I have shut down all the manufacturing machinery and let all production staff go to (hopefully) find other jobs —we are living on built up inventory. Sold some major machine tools to pay toward the building mortgage. More machines to go.. There is no mood to buy more equipment here.
I am sad for the staff and families who have had to leave. We had a nice 20 year run.
It’s a fubar situation our world is in
Well-loved. Like or Dislike:
10 
0
2nd October 2012 at 10:14 pm
Dave Doe says:
Yes, but dimished corporate expectations and diminished corporate performance will not cause reduced CEO pay. That would be tying pay to performance which is only for little people:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-02/top-1-got-93-of-income-growth-as-rich-poor-gap-widened.html
Well-loved. Like or Dislike:
8 
0
2nd October 2012 at 10:43 pm
printmemoney says:
I don’t bet on stocks because I can’t parlay them like NFL football games, but if I could I would definitely be down for a FB/GM parlay. See GM is going to sell cars to everyone in the world with the Fed buying the subprime loans…..and they’ll use all that extra money to advertise on Facebook. Don’t be surprised to see my analysis on CNBC tomorrow.
Like or Dislike:
3 
0
2nd October 2012 at 11:21 pm
Stan says:
http://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/mob-hijackings-continue-police-powerless-we-own-this-now_10032012
A gang of 40 negros moved into a convenience store and just took it over!!
Obama said he would bring us together and damned if he didn’t!
Like or Dislike:
4 
1
2nd October 2012 at 6:46 am
Chronic Agitator says:
Dave Doe says:
“Yes, but dimished corporate expectations and diminished corporate performance will not cause reduced CEO pay. That would be tying pay to performance which is only for little people:”
Dave, I understand what you are saying about CEO compensation but to clarify some points, there are thousands of Mom & Pop corporations that are managed by Pop, CEO/President and Mom, Secretary/Treasurer (or vice versa) who are not getting well compensated for their efforts.
How does a person who is unfamiliar with company names know which is the larger, Monsanto, Inc or Joe’s Corner Market, Inc? Surely someone has developed terminology to instantly discern the differences in corporation sizes so we can be on the same page at all times.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
2nd October 2012 at 4:15 pm