Below is the blaring MSM headline about the plunge in unemployment claims this morning. The talking heads on CNBC and the rest of the worthless journalists paid by the MSM dutifully reported that this confirms last week’s fake unemployment report. One little problemo. The Dept of Labor mentioned that one large state did not report their data. Only California is big enough. This isn’t a little statistical anomaly. It’s a fucking mistake. California, with 2 million people unemployed out of the 12 million in the whole country, accounts for 17% of all the claims in the country. If they don’t report their data properly, the whole press release is a sham. Isn’t it convenient that this little anomaly happens three weeks before the election. Must be another one of those coincidences.
Jobless claims plunge to four-year low
Claims fall 30,000 to 339,000, well below expectations
By Greg Robb, MarketWatch
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The number of U.S. workers who filed new applications for unemployment benefits dropped sharply, by 30,000, last week to 339,000, the lowest level in more than four years, the Labor Department reported Thursday in what may have been the result of a statistical fluke.
Economists polled by MarketWatch had expected initial claims in the week of Oct. 6 to rise 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 368,000. Last week’s number was revised up by 2,000 to 369,000.
The four-week average of new claims, meanwhile, dropped 11,500 to 364,000, the lowest level since late March. The moving average is considered a more accurate barometer of employment trends because it smooths out quirks in the weekly data.
Today’s data seemingly fit with the improvement in the labor market seen in the latest monthly jobs report, issued last Friday. The U.S. added 114,000 net jobs in September and the unemployment rate fell below 8% for the first time since President Barack Obama took office. Read more on payrolls report.
“Maybe the unemployment rate drop wasn’t a fluke?” said Robert Brusca, chief economist at FAO Economics.
A Department of Labor analyst said that a single large state was responsible for most of the drop in claims.
“This suggests that the plunge in seasonally adjusted claims likely overstates some recent labor market progress, though we continue to note that trends in claims are looking more positive,” said Gennadiy Goldberg, an interest rate strategist at TD Securities.
Added Stephen Stanley of Pierpont Securities: “The formula for the size of a claimant’s benefit check is derived based on an average of their last few quarters of pay (the more you were earning before being laid off, the bigger your unemployment check would be). Thus, in many cases, it pays for a laid-off worker to game the formula by waiting until the beginning of the next calendar quarter to file (if they can wait that long), as they may have been getting paid more in the quarter when they were laid off than in the quarter that rolls out of the equation if they wait.”
“As a result, there is an accumulation of claims that are likely submitted over a period of several weeks but not processed until the turn of the quarter. Apparently, the state in question (and it pretty much has to be California to account for anything close to 30,000) forgot to include that stockpile of unprocessed claims in their tally for this week (which is the first week of a new calendar quarter). Since the seasonal factors expected an unadjusted surge of almost 20% in the period to account for the quarterly filing pattern, failure to adhere to that pattern in the raw data (unadjusted claims were only up 8.6%) creates a big drop seasonally adjusted.”
U.S. stocks (SNC:SPX) were stronger Thursday after the report. Read Market Snapshot.
In the week of Sept. 29, the number of people who continued to receive benefits under state unemployment programs declined 15,000 to a seasonally adjusted 3.27 million. The four-week average of continuing claims fell by 7,750 to 3.28 million.
About 5 million people received some kind of state or federal benefit in the week ended Sept. 22, down 43,970 from the prior week. Total claims are reported with a two-week lag. There were 6.8 million people receiving benefits in the same week in 2011.
In a separate report, the government said that the trade gap widened in August to $44.2 billion as exports declined for the third straight month.
Hollow man says:
Yes, the cooking of the books can get a lot worse. No one can get to the truth to fix accountability. Chaos reins, one more goal attained. It is who, which party, can convince a bunch of deadbeats they get get what they want. the other voting block is the very rich. They have bought and paid for both parties.
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11th October 2012 at 2:19 pm
bluestem says:
So Admin, you think Obama called in a favor from Gov. Brown? John
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11th October 2012 at 2:29 pm
Administrator says:
John
I don’t know what to believe. But I certainly don’t believe anything being shoveled at me by the Fed gov’t or the MSM at this point.
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11th October 2012 at 2:31 pm
Eddie says:
Shut up and believe what you’re told, you damn rabble rousers. Or you’ll be pepper sprayed.
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11th October 2012 at 3:24 pm
Jimi d says:
This “unemployment numbers game” is a NON EVENT ! If you have fallen off the ‘back end’ of the unemployment compensation roles but you remain unemployed – YOU ARE STILL UNEMPLOYED ! The numbers reported are a fucking sham – I realised this in the early 1990′s ! Not to mention the people who found a job working in a convenience store for 32 hours per week that just a few years ago were making 100K. How do you ‘report’ on that issue ? FUCK IT !
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11th October 2012 at 3:42 pm
DaveL says:
Now you know why Omammy was is California earlier this week.
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11th October 2012 at 5:07 pm
DaveL says:
Correction: That should read Obammy.
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11th October 2012 at 5:08 pm
Kil Bill says:
Embrace Enron Accounting
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11th October 2012 at 8:27 pm
Dave Doe says:
Does Shadow Stats unravel the unemployment claims ?
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11th October 2012 at 9:13 pm
Dave Doe says:
Mish Reports that California forgot to report 30,000. Whoops – no bias there.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/10/so-much-for-todays-surprising-drop-in.html
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11th October 2012 at 9:39 pm
Leobeer says:
From Dave in Denver: http://truthingold.blogspot.com/
Will The Real Jobless Benefit Claims Number Please Step Forward?
There’s no B.S. like the b.s. from the BLS – My name is Dave In Denver and I approve this blog post
The headline report from all the news services reads: “Jobless Claims Plunge To New Four-Year Low,” among other misleading statements. That is also the headline report that will be reported to the hoi polloi who watch their local nightly news rather than stay current with what’s going on with Snooki. That is also the headline that will be read by those who actually pick up a newspaper tomorrow (the dwindling few in our society who actually try to keep up with the news).
But, alas, just like all the other economic reporting by the Government, this jobless claims headline is complete bullshit. The BLS itself, in post-report comments, states that “a single large state was responsible for most of the drop in claims.” As it turns out, this “large” unidentified State is thought to be California:
As a result, there is an accumulation of claims that are likely submitted over a period of several weeks but not processed until the turn of the quarter. Apparently, the state in question (and it pretty much has to be California to account for anything close to 30,000) forgot to include that stockpile of unprocessed claims in their tally for this week (which is the first week of a new calendar quarter). Since the seasonal factors expected an unadjusted surge of almost 20% in the period to account for the quarterly filing pattern, failure to adhere to that pattern in the raw data (unadjusted claims were only up 8.6%) creates a big drop seasonally adjusted (LINK)
Once again, the Government leaves out facts in reporting the headlines and most of the financial media analysts choose to debate the headline number, which is clearly a false number, rather than dig for and discuss the truth. Although, I’m told that Steve Liesman, CNBC’s obsequiously ubiquitous apologist for all headline economic reports, was uncharacteristically speechless over this headline report. Liesman is one of those guys with whom it is apparent that his brains fell out of head along with his hair.
Interestingly, the “unadjusted” claims number for the reporting week showed an increase of 25,990 claims vs. the previous week. I would argue that the unadjusted number would be a lot more relevant since the headline number did not include from California a big piece of data that is used for the “seaonal adjustments” calculation and we have no earthly idea how the BLS calculates its “seasonal adjustments” OR even if the theories underlying the calculations for these adjustments make any rational sense. Here’s the BLS report: LINK
I’ve been dragging this article around from the Washington Post so I decided to post it today. It discusses the degree to which members of Congress have – on average – managed to increase their wealth by a substantial amount over the last 8 years, while the 99% class in this country has seen its wealth decline and the its average personal income decline. This article alone explains in economic terms why it doesn’t matter which Party is in control of the White House OR Congress: LINK
Despite that article, I still can’t figure out how Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, a Mormon from Nevada, managed to go from being pretty much penniless to worth several million dollars since his first term in the Senate commenced in 1987. Here’s a guy who’s law practice was in shambles and who barely had a pot in which to piss and now he’s part of the .5%’ers (point five percenters). Anyone got any explanation for that? I don’t and neither do the people I know who have lived in Nevada their whole life. I will say, I wonder if Reid will secretly support his faith and vote for his Brother Romney in November…
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11th October 2012 at 12:22 am
Administrator says:
California Demands Business Insider Retract False Story On Jobless Claims Misreporting; Business Insider Refuses
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/12/2012 09:24 -0400
After yesterday Zero Hedge first reported the reason for the surprising plunge in the past week’s initial claims, which as the BLS explained was due to “a state” (whose identity despite all tabloid speculation to the contrary is still unknown) not reporting “some” figures, assorted blogs picked up on what has since been confirmed to be an incorrect report by Business Insider’s Henry Blodget claiming that “Well, we’re glad to say that we’ve finally gotten to the bottom of what happened” and that the state in question is none other than California (supposedly as opposed to Illinois to shut up those wacky conspiracy theorists). Turns out the site known best for its slideshow presentations (which will soon double down as advertisements) may have once again fibbed just a little, following an official demand by none other than California state Employment Development Department direct, Pam Harris, that BI retract its article. To wit: “Reports that California failed to fully report data to the U.S. Department of Labor, as required, are incorrect and irresponsible… It’s unfortunate this ‘reporter’ and others who repeated the article’s erroneous statements chose to speculate rather than report, failing to confirm this information with EDD.” Sure enough, the ‘reporter’ in question replied, and it appears that Business Insider is better informed than California when it comes to matters such as these, and has refused to retract.
From California:
SACRAMENTO – California Employment Development Department Director Pam Harris today issued the following statement in response to an un-sourced and unsubstantiated media report from Business Insider that erroneously asserts the state failed to fully and properly report unemployment insurance weekly claims data – also known as the jobless claims report – to the U.S. Department of Labor.
“Reports that California failed to fully report data to the U.S. Department of Labor, as required, are incorrect and irresponsible. The California Employment Development Department, which administers the Unemployment Insurance (UI) program in the state, has reported all UI claims data and submitted the data on time.
The original article also erroneously claims that there is a backlog of UI claims in California. California continues to file UI claims on a timely basis. Data on UI claim activity is required to be reported to the Labor Department every week and California has fully complied with the weekly reporting deadlines.
It’s unfortunate this ‘reporter’ and others who repeated the article’s erroneous statements chose to speculate rather than report, failing to confirm this information with EDD. We demand an immediate retraction and encourage writers to verify these ‘stories’ before publishing them.”
Cue Business Insider’s response:
In response to our story, California’s Employment Development Director issued a statement saying the state “has reported all UI claims data and submitted the date on time.” A spokesperson for the department also offered an alternative explanation for the drop in California’s unemployment claims: “Our weather has been unusually warm which has had some typical seasonal patterns in employment delayed.”
The California spokesperson also demanded a “retraction” of what the Labor Department told us. We accurately reported what the Labor Department told us, so we stand by our story. In a follow-up exchange, we asked the spokesperson how California could be sure it had submitted all of its claims on time. The spokesperson did not respond to the question. She simply reiterated that the Labor Department analyst we spoke to was “wrong.”
Leave it up to “reporters” to determine what data is right and wrong, even after being chastised by those who actually do know and are not pressured by Series ZZ investors for page views.
Ironically this brings up two amusing side effects. One is that the state which actually is exposed as being responsible for this misreporting will be seen as politically in bed with the administration. Which would then beg the question: why? Is said state so desperate for a Federal bail out that it would do anything to perpetuate the current administration, even if it means being responsible for misreported critical economic data. And heaven forbid the state is found to be Illinois…
Or, worse, the BLS did get California claims data, and simply chose to ignore it, which in turn will make allegations that the BLS is purposefully manipulating jobs data which it claims it does not have yet turns out it has, even louder, and most likely result with precisely what Darrell Issa is contemplating: a hearing on the accuracy and validity of economic data in a pre-election context, which if nothing else, will confirm that the US economic reporting apparatus is just as broken as that of other banana republics of which everyone enjoys making fun day in and day out, such as China, yet which are merely doing just what the US has been doing for years.
Because remember: grand conspiracies never exist. Libor-gate (as a very recent example) aside of course.
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11th October 2012 at 10:26 am