“In foreign affairs, America’s initial Fourth Turning instinct will be to look away from other countries and focus total energy on the domestic birth of a new order. Later, provoked by real or imagined outside provocations, the society will turn newly martial. America will become more isolationist than today in its unwillingness to coordinate its affairs with other countries but less isolationist in its insistence that vital national interests not be compromised. The Crisis mood will dim expectations that multilateral diplomacy and expanding global democracy can keep the world out of trouble. Even before any conflicts arise, people will feel less anxiety over the prospect of casualties. Old Unraveling-era strategies (flexibility, stealth, elite expertise, stand-off weaponry, and surgical goals) will be replaced by new Crisis-era strategies (mass, intimidation, universal conscription, frontal assault, and total victory) more suitable to a fight for civic survival. By then, people will will look back on the Unraveling as the time when America evolved from a postwar to a prewar era.”
“The Boomers’ old age will loom, exposing the thinness in private savings and the unsustainability of public promises. The 13ers will reach their make or break peak earning years, realizing at last that they can’t all be lucky exceptions to their stagnating average income. Millenials will come of age facing debts, tax burdens, and two tier wage structures that older generations will now declare intolerable.”
“This might result in a Great Devaluation, a severe drop in the market price of most financial and real assets. This devaluation could be a short but horrific panic, a free-falling price in a market with no buyers. Or it could be a series of downward ratchets linked to political events that sequentially knock the supports out from under the residual popular trust in the system. As assets devalue, trust will further disintegrate, which will cause assets to devalue further, and so on.”
Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning
prtrb'd says:
The great re-set continues. These things can go longer than anyone believes possible, at least until they don’t anymore. “Residual popular trust” is still with us, stronger than ever. Why else would our greatest inflation producing president be handed another term? Ignoramus Americanus is still going strong, at least until they don’t anymore.
This Crisis period will continue till 2025? So, I guess that means that this guy, in his next four years, will drive this formerly great land to it’s knees, and the next one in line will finish it off, bullet in the back of the head as it were. So much to look forward to!
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8th November 2012 at 8:27 am
Eddie says:
Could it possibly be the case that the events of 9-11 and the wars of occupation have fulfilled the “war” aspect of the 4th Turning?
That, in essence, the war came first,before the economic and spiritual aspects of the turning?
I believe that some kind of reset must occur to asset values..and my personal view is that it will be driven largely by demographics. That there will be more sellers than buyers in all the asset markets, as boomers cash out their meager holdings, and no one is in line to buy their stocks and bonds and real estate. So that last quote above, I find especially powerful and believable.
I’m never surprised by our willingness to jump into a war, though, when it can be trumped up as an invasion or a threat to something American…like a threat to our gas tanks, for instance.
But surely most of us Americans are tired of war at the moment…we’ve seen enough artificial limbs on 22 year old vets…and we know we spent the inheritance of future generations. I’m wondering how it will go down…this big war that generational historians are calling for..What could motivate us to dig the fiscal hole any deeper?
Just thinking out loud this morning.
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8th November 2012 at 8:39 am
Administrator says:
Eddie
I don’t think so. Fourth Turning wars are conclusive and final. That is why WWI happened in the 3rd Turning. It settled nothing. It led to the conclusive WWII.
Revolutionary War had a clear winner and loser.
Civil War had a clear winner and loser.
The War on Terror and these proxy wars in the Middle East decide nothing. They just linger on and eventually subside into nothingness with no resolution.
We will not escape a major world conflict that has winners and losers. And there are no guarantees we win.
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8th November 2012 at 8:50 am
GoldenTool says:
Boy I hope there isn’t a devaluation. The die is cast for inflation, which I think is necessary until wages inflate. Anything else will cause deflation, which will make the 30′s depression look like one of my daughters tea parties. Some are ready for this, banks (though fed backdoor), soros and other high net worth individuals, but really I hope it doesn’t happen because “they” will probably be the only financial survivors having bought up all hard assets by those forced to sell, not having a choice because of lack of money. Why do you think Brother O went in promising to change everything and couldn’t. It would all blow up… The chance to change was during Bush now it is too late. This is also why Brother Ben looks so afraid. Deflation will solve the problems but it will be hell on the bottom 90%, riots anarchy. Once again a choice of lesser evils. TPTB seem to be very good at giving only the lesser of evil options and no I don’t blame it on stupidity or ignorance. Way to many smart people out there…
operari sequitur esse
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8th November 2012 at 9:02 am
ThePessimisticChemist says:
Perhaps I’m being callous (or even mildly sociopathic)….but letting those die who refused to care for themselves seems to be our only way out of this mess.
SS and Medicare need to be phased out starting immediately.
For those who jump on my ass for this assertion, I also say that we should greatly reduce our military spending and start selling off older hardware as well.
Both of these shouldn’t be immediately ended (the shock to the economy would be tremendous) but starting a 10 year plan to reach those goals today would be a start down the right road.
While I’m at the wishing well, can I get few million dollars worth of gold?
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8th November 2012 at 9:25 am
Eddie says:
The hardest thing to get your mind around is that inflation and deflation are BOTH happening right now, and will continue to happen simultaneously to greater and lesser degrees in different geographic locales and different asset classes.
We have surging inflation in the prices of things we USE, like food and fuel.
But asset values in the things we own, like real estate and (sorry) even gold and silver, have been teetering on the brink of a large devaluation since 2008. It has only been delayed, not permanently avoided.
I see no way to avoid a reset. It’s just a question of how bad, and which classes of assets will weather the storm the best. My opinion is that stocks and bonds are inferior to real assets like metals and farm real estate in the kind of scenario we are facing.
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8th November 2012 at 9:29 am
sangell says:
After the Napoleonic wars, the British Empire became the global hegemon. It was almost always at war someplace around the periphery of its empire. There were some pretty big dust-ups too that involved other major powers but for that century long Pax Brittania no ‘total wars’ outside the American Civil War involving nations capable of waging ‘total war’ because the British Empire was strong enough to broker a peace before things got ‘existential’.
Then WW2 that left the US the dominant power and in control of 3 of the 4 regions of the world where the means to wage modern war could be produced. There was a Cold War because the US did not control the 4th industrial zone that comprised the Soviet Bloc but the world reverted back to the 19th century pattern of the hegemon being more or less involved in constant warfare along the periphery of the Empire with only a few flare-ups between lesser nations.
More recently the world has developed a 5th zone where the sinews of military power can be assembled as China has lept to the top of the world’s economic and industrial rankings to join the traditional North Asian, North American, Western and Eastern European zones. India and Brazil may soon lay claim to the same autonomous ability to build and deploy military forces capable of confronting any of the other zones. While the new zones are not yet fully the equal of the traditional zones it is only a matter of time before their capabilities achieve parity. This is very destabilizing as these new zones are not integrated into the American hegemons security sphere but are capable of independent actions that could draw in the other zones. Basically how WW1 started. It is also possible, if not inevitable, there will emerge a challenge to the current hegemon by one or more of the other zones as the number of independent actors increase and the relative power of the current hegemon declines.
How this takes place will tell the tale. I do not see anymore WW2 type total war scenarios. Modern technology precludes such long drawn out struggles. Zones can only fight with the arsenals they have on hand when hostilities begin. There are no more geographic barriers behind which a zone can shelter while it builds its forces up. No more oceans or strategic withdrawals are possible. Precision guided munitions will also quickly take out the industrial facilities from which modern weapons are made. Infrastructure will be similiarly destroyed or paralyzed within hours of hostilities breaking out. Unfortunately this argues for pre-emptive strikes because he who lands the first blow is likely to prevail.
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8th November 2012 at 10:18 am
Roysyl says:
There will be no Forth Turning, only a Final or last “Turning”. We have reached the limits of many things, mainly economic growth and population. The Lords are in effect building their “Noah’s Ark” by buying out the Serfs with the serfs own money, (QE1 2 and3). You delay collapse by printing “legal tender” and buying real assets. Monetary inflation is being offset by labor deflation.
The way you avoid inflation is with labor deflation. Sir James Goldsmith warned of this in “The Trap” as did Ross Perot in the great sucking sound. The so called “free trade” set up labor arbitrage where Corporations could lower labor and regulatory costs as well as FSA support costs by moving productive activity overseas. Non productive activities (government) will expand until the parasites destroy the host. The Lords will be the last man standing owning the means of production with many serfs reduced to indentured servitude.
Emigration doesn’t hold much hope as there are few places that are not infested with lawyers, bureaucrats, administrators, accountants, psychologists sociologists, bankers, politicians, public relations turds, publicists and other to numerous to name parasites.
Have a nice day -Roy
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8th November 2012 at 10:45 am
Ron says:
While many would like the torture to be over.The guvment can keep the ship afloat for awhile.Just imagine having a credit card with no limit.
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8th November 2012 at 11:13 am
Kill Bill says:
“In foreign affairs, America’s initial Fourth Turning instinct will be to look away from other countries and focus total energy on the domestic birth of a new order.”
Jeebus in a fun house mirror.
It will be a while before the US starts closing down its 700 some odd bases on foreign soil, IMO.
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8th November 2012 at 11:27 am
Bob says:
Strauss & Howe make the argument for a deflationary depression more effectively than I could. I agree that any wars that happen will probably be serious and final, settling old scores. I believe most of them will focus inwardly, and we will see the breakup of most of the mega-countries. It will make a great deal of difference where you live, and whether your values jibe with those of the prevailing majoity in your area.
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8th November 2012 at 12:15 pm
Dorkus Maximus says:
“There are no more geographic barriers behind which a zone can shelter while it builds its forces up” Sangnell
I don’t completely agree with this. The geography of Iraq was extremely challenging to the greatest superpower in history with the greatest logistical skills in history, and we had to mortgage our future to do it.
I don’t think we will see a superpower the likes of early milleneum USA again in our lifetimes.
Some entity will always be the most powerful, maybe its china maybe usa or germany, but the ability to project power without regard to geography seems out of reach.
The only way I can see it is cyberwar combined with drones – maybe technology will leap forward to enable this.
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8th November 2012 at 12:45 pm
Stucky says:
America the Blind
by LINH DINH
So Americans have voted for more of the same, not because they reelected Obama, but because they went to the polls at all. As expected, the two corporate and eternal war candidates got nearly all of the votes, with the Libertarian’s, not even 1%, and the Green Party’s, less than a quarter of 1%. Through no faults of their own, alternative candidates got almost no media exposure and little funding, but their extremely poor showing will be painted by the corporate media as reflective of the negligible value of their ideas.
Once again, the world has witnessed the passion and faith American voters have for war criminals and protectors of banksters. It is remarkable, really, the continuity of the American looting and mass murdering project. The US military has turned the Persian Gulf into its own bloody bath tub, in fulfillment of the Carter Doctrine. Democratic Carter cited the Soviet threat, but he was also aiming to keep the Arabs in line, to prevent another oil boycott that would cripple this country. It doesn’t take much of a gas disruption to sow chaos here, as shown by Hurricane Sandy. A gas junkie will kill and rob to feed his habit, then become even more apeshit should his supply run dry. He’ll shoot you before, during and after, and call it love for you, god and democracy.
According to the corporate shill that’s the US President, America is well on its way towards energy independence, though gas is up, up and up, and we’re wringing oil from rocks and brewing it from maize, neither one a cheap or energy efficient proposition, but don’t worry, just keep driving those SUVs and pack the NASCAR grandstands as the sea rises to your neck.
As we enter de yo mama of all depressions, partly caused by the job outsourcing started by the Democratic Clinton, the corporate shill du epoque is also promising more jobs, but where will these be found in this deliberately de-industrialized nation? We make nothing anymore except guns, corndogs, bombers and pornography, so well endowed guys and gals with strip mall implants can still go down, strut or pole dance for a few years, before they get on food stamps like a record number of their fellow citizens. That or joining the “services.”
The college basketball season will open with a game on an aircraft carrier, I kid you not, and one in an Air Force hangar in Germany. Hoopsters will wear camouflaged uniforms designed by Nike. The militarized corporate monster has infiltrated every aspect of American life, so don’t be surprised if you wake up tomorrow next to traumatized and amputated hero, or corpse, or a million corpses. Millions of corpses.
Most Americans are blind to corpses, however. They don’t see any corpses, not even those draped under their own flag. Ask people you know how many American soldiers have been killed in Iraq, for example, and I’d be very surprised if one in ten could chance into a close guess. Do you know? Ask these same people the number on Kobe’s jersey, the record of the New England Patriots or the birth year of Lady Gaga.
Education is the answer, Obama and Romney both stressed, especially higher education, though more than half of recent American college graduates can’t find work, though most are burdened with life-wrecking debts. Our banks, universities and bank-run government have colluded to jack up tuitions to unconscionable levels. As with the national debt itself, we’re eating our young.
Or maybe education isn’t the answer. From the mouth of a two-degreed librarian at a Midwestern university, “We don’t really need industries, since we’re a financial service and information economy now.” A California professor, “The world will go on financing our debts, since it’s in their interest to do so.” Another educator from same university, “Fascism?! Who’s talking about Fascism?!” And a PhD candidate at UPenn, “Obama has done all he could. He’s trying.” If that’s smart, who needs brain dead?
Unlike the last Depression, this one has been more hidden, so far, thanks to food stamps. The bread lines are inside the supermarkets now. With suffering not in plain view, many Americans can still subscribe to the recovery jingle, especially during the campaign season, when false hope percolated in many brain pans and boiling pots of possum. This morning, many wake up feeling giddy because they have managed to accomplish something together. As in every four years, they have once again say “I do” to their own rapist.
They are now represented, they think, by someone looking out for their own interests, but it can be said, quite seriously, that America does not have a representative democracy. If you vote for someone for his rhetoric and promises, which he promptly ignores after the election, then you’re not being represented, I’m sorry, though with your votes, you’ve just sanctioned him to go on abusing you and the rest of the world. Ignoring his kill list, undeclared wars and other violations of justice, you’ve chosen to swallow whole his sound bites, so you will fully deserve what’s coming to you, though it’s unfortunate that so many other victims will have to suffer also.
American democracy is like a restaurant with only two items on the menu, and no matter which one you order, ass or pachyderm, you’re served a toxic and bloody mess. Dissatisfied, you must wait four years to order again, only to receive, once more, a toxic and bloody mess. Bon appetit!
.
http://www.counterpunch.org/2012/11/07/america-the-blind/
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8th November 2012 at 1:08 pm
BUCKHED says:
Hmmm…a first strike could decide the winner. Could this be the reason that the Soviets have had subs in our waters recently. I know that they’ve been in our waters many times based on tales from my squid buddies but…?
Eddie I’ve been saying the same thing that you did as to an inflation/deflation scenario. Food etc will be expensive as hell in the future and with Monsanto and ADM creating hybrid seeds you’ll need to buy from them to grow your own food. On a plus side I just had a hand pump well installed at the farm…got water now…plenty of food…lots of ammo….let the fun begin !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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8th November 2012 at 1:09 pm
Eddie says:
Eddie,
How does one know the value of anything when value is measured in terms of manipulated markets of vacillating fiat currency conjured by phoney wizards behind curtains, molested by deviant satanic bankers, backed by hot air and pegged to illusion?
The attempt to discover true value using magic banker fiat is probably not very accurate and always subject to spastic gyrations and notifications that “it’s gone”. Even the value of tangible things in relationship to other tangible things is distorted and unreliable by the values devised in mischief and deception and assigned by wacky paper and digital smoke dollars.
You are right in what to hold. We do know that gold, farm land, real estate (unless the FSA burns it down), guns, food, tools etc. are not things that will return to the vapor they were born in like paper assets. If it can’t be vaporized short of an atomic blast then it’s better than fiat money or paper that may be rehypothecated and backed by fractional amounts of fiat paper backed by nothing that might not even exist in the first place. If what you have can be defended rife in hand better still.
In a world run by diabolical morons with red buttons and digital printing press’s who preside over massive hoards demanding institutionalized beggars, rabid predatory malcontents, intellectuals with grand delusions, math challenged social thinkers, shock value entertainers, politically correct minded nitwits, murderous zealot’s, offensive opportunists, idiots in designer athletic shoes, and lots of just plain angry unhappy people the attempt at having a good day today might be the best investment value anyone can make.
You can prepare and get ready and that’s about it. We are Doomed. And we’re not talking about ordinary Doom we are talking about Multiple Direct Hit F5 Triple Dog Doom.There’s no sure hedge against that.
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8th November 2012 at 3:38 pm
Eddie says:
I don’t know who said that, but you are probably correct, and you said it better than I could have. So I won’t bitch about the doppel.
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8th November 2012 at 4:29 pm
Bruce says:
Sorry about the doppel Eddie, I forgot to fill out the damn name box again.
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8th November 2012 at 8:20 pm