The Anatomy of a Breakdown
This article has been generously contributed by Tess Pennington of Ready Nutrition. After joining the Dallas chapter of the American Red Cross in 1999 Tess worked as an Armed Forces Emergency Services Center specialist and is well versed in emergency and disaster management & response. You can follow her regular updates on Preparedness, Homesteading, and a host of other topics at www.readynutrition.com.
If we can all agree on one thing, it’s that the government and disaster organizations alike grossly underestimate how dependent the majority of the population is on them during and after a disastrous event takes place. We need not look any further than the last major disasters that have occurred to find our answers: the Haitian earthquake that occurred in 2010, Hurricane Katrina in 2005, the 2011 super tornado of Joplin, MO, and even as recently as Hurricane Sandy.
As preppers are well aware, when the needs of the population cannot be met in an allotted time frame, a phenomena occurs and the mindset shifts in people. They begin to act without thinking and respond to changes in their environment in an emotionally-based manner, thus leading to chaos, instability and a breakdown in our social paradigm.
When you take the time to understand how a breakdown behaves and how it progresses, only then can you truly prepare for it.
The Anatomy of a Breakdown
This glimpse into a systemic breakdown is based on an isolated, limited disaster or event where emergency responders have been deployed. I must emphasize that all bets are off if the event is wide spread, affecting multiple tens of millions of people simultaneously.
Phase 1: The Warning
Although disasters such as earthquakes and tornadoes can come on so quickly that timely warnings are not always given, for the most part, governments typically provide adequate time to get a population ready in advance. Local governments even go as far as to err on the side of caution and sternly warn the citizens to evacuate.
For one reason or another, there will be a select group that stays behind. Some of these citizens are prepared and ready for what may come and may feel the need to stay to defend what is rightfully theirs but the majority of the population will not be ready for what they are about to endure. Those that are in this unprepared majority who choose to ride out the disaster do so because they are either unaware of how to fully prepared for disasters, have become complacent or numb to the heeds of warning from the local government and news media, or are overly confident.
This is the point in this cycle where herds of people go to the grocery stores frantically grabbing supplies. Most grocery stores will not be able to meet the demand of the people’s need for supplies, and many could go home empty handed.
Bracing for the disaster, the prepared and unprepared will be hoping for the best outcome. What many do not realize is the hardest part of this event is soon to be upon them. Within days, the descent into the breakdown will begin.
Phase 2: Shock and Awe (1-2 Days)
After the initial shock wears off of the disaster, many will have difficulty in coping and adapting to what has just occurred. As they are trying to wrap their thoughts around the severity of the disaster, their losses and what their future holds, local government leaders are scrambling for answers and trying to assess the situation.
At this point, the unprepared survivors will be expecting organizations and local government to step in to meet their immediate needs at any moment. The reality of the situation becomes more bleak when they realize that due to downed power lines or debris blocking roadways and access points, emergency organizations, emergency response and distribution trucks supplying food, water, fuel and other pertinent resources will be unable to get to the area. Once the realization hits that resources are scarce and the government leaders are incapable of helping them in a timely fashion, desperate citizens will take action into their own hands.
The breakdown has begun.
Phase 3: The Breakdown (3-7 Days)
Have you ever heard the saying, “We’re three days away from anarchy?” In the wake of a disaster, that’s all you have is three days to turn the crazy train around before crime, looting and chaos ensue. In reports during the aftermath of hurricane Sandy, residents from Staten Island were pleading for help from elected officials, begging for gasoline, food and clothing.
“We’re going to die! We’re going to freeze! We got 90-year-old people!” Donna Solli told visiting officials. “You don’t understand. You gotta get your trucks down here on the corner now. It’s been three days!”
Similar stories of looting occurred during the tornado in Joplin, MO of 2011. This time, the looting occurred from national guard soldiers patrolling the area.
“The night of the tornado, as emergency responders rushed from one shattered home to the next, Steve Dixon sat outside his father’s destroyed house with a baseball bat. They wouldn’t see me sitting here in my chair, I was in the dark,” he told NPR. “I’d turn my bright spotlight on them and tell them they needed to move on. Then when the police came by, I’d tell them which way they went.”
Multiple factors contribute to societal breakdowns including failure of adequate government response, population density, citizens taking advantage of the grid being down and overwhelmed emergency response teams.
For whatever reason, 3-5 days following a disaster is the bewitching hour. During this short amount of time, the population slowly becomes a powder keg full of angry, desperate citizens. A good example is the chaos that ensued in New Orleans following the absence of action from the local government or a timely effective federal response in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. In such troubled times, people were forced to fend for themselves and their families, by any means necessary. This timeline of Hurricane Katrina effectively illustrates “the breakdown,” and within three days, the citizens of New Orleans descended into anarchy, looting and murder (Source).
If this scenario isn’t bad enough, at the end of this time frame, there will be an increase in illnesses due to cramped living quarters from emergency shelters, sanitation-related illness, compromised water sources and exposure to natural elements. In the aftermath of the Haitian earthquake, sanitation- related epidemics became a large concern for the disaster victims. In fact, the outbreak erupted into the world’s largest cholera epidemic despite a huge international mobilization still dealing with the effects of the Jan. 12, 2010, earthquake (Source).
Victims from Hurricane Sandy are also beginning to see their share of illnesses. Due to the horrible weather plaguing the area, many of the evacuation shelters in Brooklyn were closed last week for sterilizing due to a vicious viral outbreak that struck.
Phase 4: Recovery (8-30+ Days)
Despite what we want to believe, most recoveries are slow and difficult in progression and require long-term planning. On average it takes a city around 1-2 weeks after the event took place to start this phase of the cycle. Every disaster is different and the length of recovery efforts vary greatly on the nature of the incident.
7 years after Hurricane Katrina leveled parts of Louisiana, the state is still in the recovery phase.. ”We are in a process of long-term rebuilding,” said Christina Stephens, Spokeswoman for the Louisiana Recovery Authority. “There is at least another 10 years of recovery.” (Source)
Within this recovery phase, essential goods and resources could will still be hard to come by, thus forcing local officials to implement the rationing of resources to ensure there is enough for the population. We are seeing this right now with the gasoline rationing in New York.
It could be months before the destruction caused by Hurricane Sandy is cleaned up. Damaged communities are coming to terms with the devastation that delivered an unprecedented punch to the region’s economy, causing more than an estimated $50 billion in losses and forcing hundreds of thousands to rebuild their lives. (Source)
Don’t Be Another Statistic
Now that you understand what we’re dealing with, there are ways you can use this information to prepare for the next event so that you will be a part of the population that is ready for what may come.
Trust yourself. Learn to be self-sufficient and rely on yourself. When it is all said and done, you are the only one who can care for yourself and your family the best. You will be the one who has your family’s best intentions at heart. Having a stock of your family’s favorite canned or dry goods, a supply of water and a simple medical kit can maintain your basic needs for a short-lived disaster. This simple preparedness supply could set you apart from the unprepared.
If you live in a highly populated area, understand that resources will diminish quickly, so preparing beforehand can circumvent this. You can always start out with the basic 10 preparedness items you will need to skirt through a disaster:
- Food and alternative ways to cook food
- Water
- Fuel for generators, cooking stoves and mantels, charcoal for outdoor grills
- Batteries
- Generator
- Emergency lighting
- Ice
- Medical supply
- Baby formula
- Sanitation supplies
Or, if you want a more comprehensive supply, take a look at the 52-Weeks to Preparedness series.
Educate yourself. Learn from the disasters, folks! Each time there is a disaster, the same pattern occurs: the warning, shock and awe, the breakdown and recovery. Study the effects of disasters that effect your area and what items you will need to get through the event. Further, find the weak points in your preparedness supply and correct them. Supply inventories twice a year can do wonders in this area.
Get into the mindset. Learning what to do in the face of a disaster or how to care for your family during extended grid-down emergencies can put you well ahead of the race. The more prepared you are, the faster you are at adapting to the situation. You can learn anything as long as you research, gather and apply the information. For example, while many on the East coast were still in shock from Hurricane Sandy and were sitting in their homes panicking and watching their perishable food items go bad, those that had learned how to survive in off-grid, cold environments were well prepared for this type of disaster, and had already begun packing their perishable items in the snow to preserve them. It’s that simple!
Practice makes perfect. Practice using your skills, your preps and prepare emergency menus based around your stored foods. The more you practice surviving an off-grid disaster, the more efficient you will be when and if that event occurs. Moreover, these skills will keep you alive! For a list of pertinent skills to know during times of disaster, click here.
Further, to make your family or group more cohesive, cross-train members so they can compensate for the other during a disaster.
In summation, only until we see the cycle for what it is and the effects it has on society will we be able to learn from it. There is always a breakdown in some form or fashion after a disaster. If you can prepare for this, you will be able to adapt more quickly to what is going on around you.
The cycle is there and we can’t look past it. Prepare accordingly and do not overlook ensuring you have your basic preps accounted for.
This article has been contributed by Tess Pennington of Ready Nutrition. Subscribe to Tess’ Get Prepped Weekly Newsletter for more emergency preparedness tips, homesteading ideas, and insights. As a subscriber to her free newsletter you’ll receive the latest updates from her 52 Weeks to Preparedness Emergency Preparedness and Disaster Planning Series. It’s well worth your time, and oh, did we mention it’s totally free?
Hope@ZeroKelvin says:
This is actually a great web site for prepping. I’ve learned a lot of great things from Tess over the years.
Since things seem to be heating up to a hot Civil War, I would advise you all to read through her stuff and take it to heart.
Yes, I am prepared, for the most part. Will re-inventory this weekend for clothing and household items.
Would like to have a bigger network of like-minded people but I worry about the OPSEC.
Also Mr. HZK is convinced he needs a Swarovski scope for his 7 mag and I would rather get some milk goats. Ahh, priorities.
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13th November 2012 at 2:25 pm
AWD says:
I can say I’m ready. I bought another 2 cords of firewood, and should have enough to heat my home for two winters. Food, ammo, crossbow, water, you name it. 98% of the population are complete imbeciles, looking for their next meal and McShit’s burger. They’ll be fighting each other over the ding-dongs and coke at the store, especially if their SNAP cards quit working.
Every once in awhile, it actually happens. “The computers are down” around here, and SNAP quits working. They put huge signs in the windows “Link (name for SNAP here) is down”. People go ape-shit. A well placed computer virus, into the SNAP system, would result in anarchy here, literally. If SNAP was down for a week or two, there’d be looting and murders across the U.S. Wouldn’t take much. Maybe I need some more ammo. Damn.
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13th November 2012 at 2:38 pm
Eddie says:
Milk will get you through times of no scope better than scope will get you through times of no milk. LOL.
I wish I was better prepped. I’m okay for a Katrina, but not for an Armageddon. Nobody is, at least not completely. Not even John Wesley Rawles.
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13th November 2012 at 2:54 pm
harry p. says:
AWD, glad you are ready. we are in a fairly good position but not to the point I don’t think about atleast once a day.
i expect it to be like fatherhood, you can never actually be truly “ready”, you can only be kinda ready which will give you enough time to think thru the unexpected issues that will assuredly arise. If you are even only in the process of getting yourself ready you will be in better shape than 75% of the dipshits out there.
I would also add that being ready isn’t enough, you have to disguise your readiness. i am/will be willing to help close friends and family but not in a manner that would jeopardize my family. when the zombie hordes coming a-looting it won’t matter how much firepower you have.
for instance, i saw a nice piece of property for sale but it was too close to a main road so I told my wife i wouldn’t even consider it just for that reason. Don’t want to be visible to desperate people who might run out of fuel on a heavily traveled road.
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13th November 2012 at 2:59 pm
AWD says:
Harry,
You can be completely ready. You must be able to eat, drink, piss/defecate, keep yourself warm/cool, and protect yourself. Everything else is for comfort, and comfort is good. Being “ready” is more a mental thing than a physical thing, that is, as long as you already have everything you’ll need. I look forward to staying home, smoking cigars, and picking off zombies with my sniper rifle. If a horde comes, I’ll have my AR15, barring that, 9mm and 12 gauge with rifled slugs and magnum 00 buck. If that fails, hatchets, swords, knives. If that fails, then I won’t have to worry, I’ll be dead.
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13th November 2012 at 3:08 pm
JIMSKI says:
I am ready with one very slight exception. I have been unable to loose enough weight to get off blood pressure medication.
I know I know big no no for a serious prepper but then again I am not that sure I am a serious prepper. I basically did everything for my family. My son is 19 and is in school right now 2 hours away. The prepping included teaching him how to identify when it is time to come home.
I hope NONE of the things we have done are needed. I used to think it was a 50-50 chance. Now I think it is 100% of Something I just do not know how bad.
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13th November 2012 at 3:11 pm
youcanthavemyglock says:
hey AWD, consider using #1 and 0 buck loads for self defense
http://www.chuckhawks.com/home_defense_shotgun_ammo.htm
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13th November 2012 at 3:26 pm
IndenturedServant says:
We had an ice storm years back and I remember a news crew interviewing a woman who was bitching about not having any hot meals for a week. The dumb ass was standing right next to her gas grill on the porch!
The article mentions ice. If you are already prepared before a disaster, go to the store and get dry ice. Lots of it! Few people will be looking for it and if you know where to buy it ahead of time, you’ll likely be first in line to buy it. Used properly, you can keep a fridge cold for days and freezer or coolers, frozen solid as long as the dry ice lasts. If you get too much, give it to your neighbors.
Another option for having 110v power is to have a special alternator installed in your car that puts out 110vac. I’m not sure what the amperage or wattage capacity might be but some 110v power might be better than none!
If you do find yourself in a situation where you have to evacuate, you had better be prepped for that well ahead of time! Don’t forget important documents including insurance policies, birth/death/military/titles/deeds/monthly bills/checks and irreplaceable photos etc. Make a list of everything you need to take then spend a weekend getting it all together. Spend the next weekend whittling the pile down to what you can actually transport. You might be shocked at how little you can reasonably transport.
I_S
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13th November 2012 at 4:26 pm
AKAnon says:
Harry-good thinking. What’s that saying about real estate? Location, location, location.
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13th November 2012 at 5:03 pm
Kill Bill says:
What happens after a year or so when the preppers run out of food?
Loony War!
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13th November 2012 at 5:25 pm
sangell says:
I remember they tried to evacuate Houston a few years ago when a hurricane approached. If was a total fiasco. I don’t think it is really feasible to evacuate a large metro area so, if you think your house is vulnerable to wind, flood or surge, getting a room in a reinforced concrete/steel frame hotel is an alternative and a better one than a public shelter. You don’t want to be in close proximity to the underclass and that is who is likely to be in public shelters. You will also be first back in to secure your property because if you do evacuate getting gasoline to go back will be difficult and that’s if the roads are open. It is also the case that if a city is evacuated, only the people will be gone. Most of what you need will still be on store shelves. Not saying you have to loot it, I imagine the civil authorities would make it available to the citizenry as happened in New Orleans after Katrina.
If you stop and think about it an evacuated big city might well have more supplies on hand than whatever small towns evacuees passed through on their way out. While grocery store shelves in an evacuated city might be threadbare what is in the backrooms and not on display will still be there to say nothing of central grocery warehouses. Even if gas stations are down there is still plenty of fuel in cars left behind. One thing that amazed me in the Sandy situation was people did not seem to have siphons. That could be the wisest $5 you spend for your emergency kit.
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13th November 2012 at 5:30 pm
Hope@ZeroKelvin says:
@AWD:
LOL, “complete imbeciles”. I always giggle when I read that. It brings to mind this:
Hot debate. What do you think?
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13th November 2012 at 5:33 pm
Roysyl says:
When the peppers run out of food they will turn into one large Donner Party which will work until the last cannibal dies of starvation.
If you are not able to live like Danial Boone or the Amish or Mennonites you will join the Donner Party. Many of my Mennonite neighbors have strayed from the old ways that worked for hundreds of years. One day I ran into a group of young Mennonite men and asked how many
could sheaf grain with a scythe and cradle. I got a bunch of blank looks.
I believe much of the prepping is over preparing for the wrong thing. I believe people are preparing for an event of non permanent duration. I went through two combat aircrew member survival schools and my widowed Grandmother and relatives were old order Mennonites. I feel I have a better feel for what is necessary to emerge among the remnant. I feel many of these “How To” books fall into the same category Dr. Peter put These, “The movement of old bones from one graveyard to another.”
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13th November 2012 at 6:09 pm
Roysyl says:
“These” is supposed to be Thesis. I misspelled it and spell check correctly spelled another word.
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13th November 2012 at 6:15 pm
Storm Clean up & Preparedness | New Milford, CT says:
[...] Are You Ready? [...]
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13th November 2012 at 7:19 pm
Storm Preparedness & Clean Up | THE GOOD WORD: BETHEL, CT says:
[...] Are You Ready? [...]
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13th November 2012 at 7:53 pm
Storm Preparedness & Clean Up | BROOKFIELD, CT says:
[...] Are You Ready? [...]
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13th November 2012 at 7:57 pm
Storm Preparedness & Clean Up | THE GOOD WORD: RIDGEFIELD, CT says:
[...] Are You Ready? [...]
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13th November 2012 at 8:05 pm
Alex says:
Living in Los Angeles is knowing all this will come one day, with zero warning. It’s not a pleasant feeling. I’ve stocked what I can but god only knows, my whole house could collapse down a hill. I’ve also made friends with the Thai family down the street who run a restaurant and have a garage full of food at all times. And trust me, that house is ARMED. They remember the Korean stores being looted in the riots and they’re not having it. This city is made up of hordes of dirt-poor dependent immigrants, various hoodlums, an ultra-rich class on the Westside living behind gates, and whiny spoiled babies who will be crying for FEMA non-fat lattes. Will not be pretty.
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13th November 2012 at 9:07 pm
fool on the hill says:
Ready?
Probably cause I hit all the silhouettes in Trainfire until I made expert ………….the perk was a three day pass.
Then I stood up and shot from the hip and got one more hit.
The lane grader asked why I did that?
I don’t want to go into the infantry was my reply.
I do live in a wooded setting on the side of a mountain.
Am I a prepper? Not really since I have been here since 1977.
I want to be in charge of my own destiny and found a way to do it that works for me.
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13th November 2012 at 9:18 pm
Ron says:
Even if you think your ready,your not.
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13th November 2012 at 2:40 am
DaveL says:
“Heck of a job Brown boy.”
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13th November 2012 at 3:01 pm
ARE YOU READY? « The Burning Platform | Surviving The Collapse says:
[...] this article: ARE YOU READY? « The Burning Platform ← McGrath: There Is a Disaster Coming. Get Ready for [...]
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13th November 2012 at 10:23 am
Individuals Requiring Additional Assistance in a Disaster: Sandy Reminds us to Think Beyond the Emergency Kit | Preparedness For All says:
[...] Are You Ready? (theburningplatform.com) Share this:TwitterFacebookLike this:LikeBe the first to like this. This entry was posted in Accessibility, Preparedness and tagged accessibility, at-risk populations, Disability, Emergency evacuation, Emergency management, Hurricane Sandy, Madeleine Peters, New Jersey, New York City, Physical disability, preparedness, University of Delaware. Bookmark the permalink. ← UMASS Medical School, Online Course: Individuals Requiring Additional Assistance [...]
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13th November 2012 at 10:03 am