Evergreen
Submitted by Bruce Krastingon 11/22/2012 15:15 -0500
I live not too far from a 100 year-old dam that’s part of NYC’s water supply. There’s a roadway that runs over the top. For years, the locals used the dam as the quick-way to town.
That ended a few days after 911 when some SWAT guys showed up. The thinking was that maybe the terrorists would hit the water supply next. That lasted a few months; then the SWAT guys left, and were replaced with NYS prison guards (a nasty lot). The guard guys hung out in a hut, smoked cigarettes and talked on cell phones.
Two years of guard duty (and a ton of OT) went by with no attack, so the Home Land Security folks brought in a few big rocks, and a heavy cable to keep things safe, sort of.
Things stayed like that for another five years, all the time people complaining that they had to drive miles out of the way, and the kids were stuck on buses for hours and it wasn’t safe as fire, police and ambulance had to go up the side road.
So finally push came to shove, and there was a big meeting, and the folks at the DHLS worked out a deal with the County. The dam roadway would be reopened; but only after the national threat alert went to green.
Green?
American won’t see a “Green” alert level for another fifty years. What kind of answer is that? It’s a lie.
I thought of this story after reading the comments from the Swiss National Bank’s Vice-Chair, Danthine. He set a time frame for how long the SNB would maintain the 1.2000 peg against the Euro. His words:
SNB can keep 1.20 cap as long as needed
As long as needed? That’s about as open-ended as it can get. This language could be interpreted as meaning 1-2 years, it could just as easily mean ten-years (forever). Danthine is describing an inflexible policy that has no defined ending. I think of this as “Evergreen” monetary policy.
Evergreen policies are evident at all of the big CBs today. The ECB’s, Mario Draghi, has used the word “Unlimited” when describing the scope of his willingness to intervene in the capital markets. He has also used the word “Forever” when describing the duration of the fixed exchange rate regime in the EU.
Forever + Unlimited = Evergreen
Japan has been Evergreen for years. Is it ten rounds of QE that the BOJ has done so far? And today, in what I find to be an extraordinary development, there is a promise that Evergreen will be taken to the next level. In less than a month, Japan will have an election, the outcome will mark the end of the concept of an “Independent Central Bank”. The leading candidate, Abe, has promised that if elected, he will force the BOJ to conduct money printing monetary policies that would have no bounds.
I think of this as if the government was handing out cyanide pills. The markets disagree. The Nikkei has been on a tear ever since the national elections were called:
Why is it that the promise of more printing always brings with it a ramp up in equity prices? After ten failed attempts, one would think that investors finally “get it”. QE does not work, it just distorts.
The Mother of all Central Banks is, of course, the Federal Reserve. Ben Bernanke, his cohorts at the Fed and the usual suspects in the press have been preparing the markets for the coming QE4.
Janet Yellen spoke a week ago, she talked Evergreen:
The three elements of forward guidance that were adopted by the FOMC in September 2012 would have been unthinkable in 1992 and greatly surprising in 2002, but they have, in my view, become a centerpiece of appropriate monetary policy.
Right. What was, not so long ago, “unthinkable”, is now the “centerpiece”. These people are actually proud of this “accomplishment”.
Then Bernanke spoke, Evergreen was his message too:
we expect that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the economic recovery strengthens.
In other words, there is no scenario for an end to printing.
And finally, today, the WSJ’s ace reporter, Jon Hilsenrath, has an interview with Federal Reserve President John Williams. The message? More Evergreen talk.
Conceptually you could imagine some upper limit to this but I don’t think we’re getting anywhere near it.
On whether the Fed could stop monetizing any time soon?
Stopping or scaling back would be “counterproductive” for the economy.
The US is at a tipping point on monetary policy. Operation Twist ends in December. The mind numbing reality is that if the Fed were to allow Twist to just end, it would be contractionary.
Traditionally, monetary policy could be either Restrictive, Accommodative, or Neutral. In 2012, Neutral is equal to Contraction. There is no longer a middle ground. Either the Fed adds more to the system every month for eternity, or else.
And that is exactly what will happen in December. The Fed will do QE#4, it will result in an additional $40+B per month of Fed buys. Along with QE#3, that means the Fed will be monetizing debt to the tune of $85B a month ($2mm a minute, 24/7). When QE#3 and #4 is ending, we will have QE#s 5 and 6.
Bernanke has said many times that all of his efforts are just temporary. That the big balance sheet of the Fed can be reduced with no problems at all when ever it might be needed. Ben’s lying. He’s fibbing in the same way as suggesting my roadway might reopen someday soon. America is never going to have a Green Terror Alert status again. The answer to the question, “When’s the shortcut gonna open again?” is, “Never”. The Fed is no different. They are committed to an Evergreen approach. They have no other alternative.
The major economies of the world are faced with Print or Die. So print it will be. I do wish the monetary overlords would acknowledge that what is being done is irreversible, and that the consequences will be felt for years. What was once unthinkable, is now permanent.
Yojimbo says:
An open request to all regulars:
I need some help with preserving wealth. My wife had a life insurance policy that was partially invested in stocks, and had a cash-out value. I told her the stock market was a dangerous place to be (based on readings here, especially Hussman), so she cashed it out, and replaced it with a SBLI policy level term policy.
The check will soon come in the mail. I’m telling her to keep it in cash for now, and then when the stock market crashes, she can buy stocks, or whatever she likes then.
But, of course, I’ve been telling her the stock market will imminently crash for years now, and it has gone up over those years.
This is non-401K money, so there are no restrictions how it can be used. I’m thinking when the market crashes, gold and silver will crash also, and it would be a good time to buy, but everything I expect will happen never happens because of all the tricks the Fed can pull.
What are people’s thoughts? What are the next likely events in this collapse? How can this go on and on?
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23rd November 2012 at 9:32 am
Buckhed says:
Yo..buy physical gold or silver if you don’t have any . Guns,food and ammo would be good too.
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23rd November 2012 at 9:44 am
backwardsevolution says:
Karl Denninger quotes a new study:
“The solution to weak economic growth may be higher interest rates.
That seemingly paradoxical remedy can apply if the cause of the slump is a confidence shock that cheap borrowing costs are failing to reverse, two Columbia University economists said in a report published this week. In such a situation, ultra-easy monetary policy risks making fears of deflation a self-fulfilling prophecy as spenders sit tight.”
Karl says:
“So did the Federal Government increase spending to stimulate the economy and did The Fed (which existed, I remind you) cut rates?
Nope.
Exactly the opposite.
The Federal Reserve increased rates and The Federal Government balanced the budget.
The over-levered went bankrupt.
But the market cleared, and 18 months later the economy was back to full employment.
You never hear this deflationary recession talked about in economics class, although you should. The only reason it was not called “A Depression” is that it didn’t last long enough to qualify.
There are many lessons in history; lowering interest rates and deficit spending in fact don’t work. At their best they can manage to substitute false government-fed demand for a while and blow an even bigger bubble than existed before. But frequently they fail entirely and you get the 1930s or the last two decades in Japan.
On the other hand, if you stop the deficit spending (and thus the debasement of people’s capital — their savings) that comes with it, and you refuse to feed an overlevered lending market with ever-cheaper credit, history says the market clears and then the economy recovers.”
Perhaps their motive is not a recovery, but to maintain asset prices; in other words, an “artificial” economy.
http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=214204
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23rd November 2012 at 12:07 pm
backwardsevolution says:
The above Marketticker article pertained to the 1920-21 financial collapse.
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23rd November 2012 at 12:09 pm
a cruel accountant says:
Yo
My guess is half of what I say here you will have already done. I am starting with the basics. I also do not know your financial situation so again the basics
1) Emergency fund some say 3-6 months. I have a whole year.
2)Pay off debt. Credit card debt first (I doubt you have credit card debt).
3) disability insurance. Your ability to work is 99 times out of 100 your biggest asset.
I have to comment on this one because I have seen several people become severely disabled mostly cancer and now have large medical bills with their income cut in half or worse, It not a good situation.
If you have taken care of these three you better off than most people.
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23rd November 2012 at 12:11 pm
a cruel accountant says:
Back
Government studies have shown that we have reached the point where more debt has a negative impact on the economy. The more the government spends and borrows the worse the economy gets. We have actually reached the point where paying off debt actually improves the economy.
Individuals have figured this out and they are decreasing debt. Personal debt is actually flat or declining in nominal amounts. However this is being achieved mostly thru bankruptcy as admin has pointed out many times.
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23rd November 2012 at 12:19 pm
efarmer says:
Yo,
Serious problem indeed. I use farmland, but even that is starting to act like a bubble.
Kyle Bass talks about it. http://kylebassblog.blogspot.com/
He also says war is inevitable.
EF
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23rd November 2012 at 12:32 pm
Eddie says:
My response to Bruce Krasting:
Can you say quadrillion?
My response to Yohimbo:
For the moment, the dollar may fare pretty well as a hedge. Keep most of it in cash for buying opportunities. In fact, keep some in cash cash…i.e. greenbacks. At least what you normally spend in a month. You never know.
Put some into gold and or silver physical now. Prices aren’t bad. Could we have a “liquidity event” that drives the price down? Yes, so just establish a stake, maybe 20% of your investment.
I know I will be attacked here for saying this, but I personally would put 3 to 5 percent into very long out-of-the-money SLV options. Speculative? Very, very, very. But if the metals break out, you could reap some extremely substantial gains.
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23rd November 2012 at 12:39 pm
sangell says:
@Eddie
I agree in principle with gold, cash and currency for the time being but they are far from risk free assets. Nothing is anymore and that is the problem. Central Banks no longer backstop the banking system as was their original purpose, they backstop their governments and the governments are broke. Worse, in the case of the US government , it is in the hands of a coalition of parasites, public employees and academics like Bernanke. Only a small majority of Republicans in the House stops these fools from beginning a reckless and radical search for revenue. If gold prices soar as a result of their monetary insanity count on them to institute a windfall profits or some such to capture any profit you might make. If, as is quite possible, they begin the great experiment of GNP/inflation targeting and breaking the ZLB to prevent their policies from spiralling into a deflationary hell of their own making, count on them to institute capital controls to surround your money and issue new bills to force you to surrender any cash you have ‘hoarded’. Expect the IRS to tax any amount they determine is ‘excessive’. Desperate governments will do desperate things and printing is only phase one of desperation.
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23rd November 2012 at 1:14 pm
Eddie says:
sangell
There is no more “risk free” anything. At some point, all the negatives you mentioned could happen. I’d be the first to agree with that. I hope I don’t live to see it.
Some days I’m tempted to just cash out and buy a big boat, while I still can. They are getting cheaper, too!
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23rd November 2012 at 1:22 pm
ecliptix543 says:
Yojimbo – My suggestion is to make a very honest, very serious assessment of your family’s skills independent of the fraud and fantasy economy we now live in. Think about the spread between what is most likely to happen, and what is the worst that could happen. Then, invest in yourselves accordingly. This only works if you set aside all the fluff and ego, and be totally honest about what you can do and what you can’t. PM’s, cash, durable supplies, etc are all excellent suggestions as well. Just be sure that you’re achieving the highest practical value for your investments, whatever they may be.
Exercise and fitness can be essentially free. A high quality, lower quantity diet ends up being cheaper in the long run. Building a rain catch can provide you with chemically unmolested water – better than tap water and exponentially cheaper than bottled. All of these sorts of ideas have been gone over in great detail here and on other sites, of course, and you know how to find info on them. Plus, you’ll see tremendous benefits whether this whole thing crashes or not. Investing in your self and your family responsibly includes so much more than just financial products…
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23rd November 2012 at 1:37 pm
Stucky says:
The biggest most damaging lies are the lies we tell OURSELVES. That is always true.
Here’s some truth for all of us;
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23rd November 2012 at 2:29 pm
Ron says:
A paid for place in the country.A reliable vehicle that has fresh tires(and spares)I would consider an suv.(says the guy with a mini van) A small greenhouse with an aquaponics setup.Raise quail for eggs and meat.FOOD.
But you have to look forward to what you can see yourself needing.An example,many power hungry types want AR15 type weapons.Im happy with my shotgun and buckshot.
Theres much writing here about gold.I well admit that its better than paper money.But i wouldnt put all my cash in it.Physical gold would be the only way i would own it.The value of whatever gold you have,how easy would it be to use?Silver would be better to me.
Consider a future where everything you take for granted now,most likely wont be there.
Anouther less talked about future,would just be a more militerized police state.And less available things on shelves.
Im not wealthy enough to be much help with stocks,but i get a gut feeling one morning people well see some really bad news and folks well be killing themselves over it.The market is a gamble and controlled by people with inside information and very fast computers.Its all manipulated.
I tell all to make peace with God.
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23rd November 2012 at 2:55 pm
ecliptix543 says:
I’m not too sure I’d characterize people who choose AR15′s to be power hungry. Now, the people that are ISSUED an AR15/M4 might qualify as power hungry… especially if their costumes have “SWAT” stitched or stenciled on them. I do agree that at present, the most likely near to intermediate term future is a metastasized militant police state.
I’ve said it before and I’ll repeat it again: Good quality shoes. Lots of them. A few pairs of dry, temperate weather walking/running type shoes, a few pairs of colder weather waterproof or at least water resistant boots that fit properly. Of all the SHTF and survivalist type websites I’ve seen, I can’t recall anybody who’s pointed out that once your feet are fucked, your life starts to be measured in hours. Seriously, how many people out there could fabricate sufficient footwear from local materials? I certainly can’t. Virtually everything is made overseas somewhere, particularly socks. Modern shoes are primarily glued together synthetics and not repairable. Most of them don’t last very long. Find what fits you best and is made of good materials, then buy up a few extras and toss ‘em in the closet.
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23rd November 2012 at 4:52 pm
Roysyl says:
Yojimbo – We are entering a new paradigm with the decline of cheap, plentiful energy. The worlds population has always been limited by the number of people it can feed. The Industrial Revolution increased food production and freed up people for other activities as fewer were needed to produce the food to feed the population. The hunter gathers expended one calorie of energy to produce ten calories of food, same for non fossil fuel agriculture. Modern Industrial agriculture now requires ten or more calories to produce one calorie of food. The world hit max per capita oil in 1979/80. You can see where this is headed.
We do not have money, we have Legal Tender enforced at gun point by the government. Check any Federal Reserve Note it says “THIS NOTE IS LEGAL TENDER FOR ALL DEBTS PUPLIC AND PRIVATE”. We would be better off if they made horseshit legal tender because it would limit the “money” supply and increase the number of horses, a literal money making machine. We will need horses to replace the internal combustion industrial machinery as liquid fuels decline.
Money has three functions: store of value, unit of account, median of exchange. Real money is incompatible with government on the store of value issue. If you bake ten loaves of bread and only need one presently and sell the rest for government legal tender you may be able to buy five loaves as any time “money” changes hands government takes an increasing larger cut. In a free market you would be able to get nine loaves. This free market is called the underground economy, the black market or barter and cuts out the middleman. Politicians and the media never address the ethics or morality of confiscating one’s property and giving it to another after charging a handling fee but the debate is always over disposition of the pillage.
Gold and silver could become money for international transactions only without central banking as Adam Smith outlined in his Real Bills doctrine. Otherwise you would be better off with items you could barter. If you have or buy gold or silver always take physical position as there is a difference between ownership and control. People thought they had ownership with MFGlobal and PGFBest but JP Morgan chase had control. You see how that worked out.
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23rd November 2012 at 8:11 pm
Thunderbird says:
Yojimbo: It all depends on what you want to do with the rest of your life. Right now anyone with a stash can get out of this rat race called “Control,” if the desire for something other than control is wanted.
Those who have control of the money, water, energy, food, control the masses of humanity that live in the urban world; 75% of us.
The masses are fed the above at the discretion of the controllers. We are nothing and consequently made into something by the controllers who are only using us to their end, by making endless promises based in hope while withholding the very thing we base our hope on.
Basically, this is what life is all about. Is it not about being used by the controllers for the controllers? We are nothing. This is what America turned into. Go all over the country and you will find the same pattern; controlling interests feeding off the masses. Weather it be local government, old money, unions, political parties, large corporations and their outlets, it is all the same game of feeding off the masses.
The masses are mass collectives like schools of fish; with one difference, fish are caught out of these schools for food to be physically eaten, while people are harvested as psychological food for use in industry and war. We are nothing else. We are educated for the use of the controllers.
That is the basic mode of operation for life on earth. We are really one collective organism thinly spread across the face of the planet.
Now about the cash out of your stash…
Why not use it to find out who is really behind the curtain in your consciousness.
Welcome to Dirt!
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23rd November 2012 at 9:03 pm
AKAnon says:
Ecliptix-Good point about footgear. Being the cheap bastard that I am, most of my boots (most of which are cold weather-go figure) come from garage sales and thrift stores. I thought I had plenty of pairs, but now that you mention it, a few more pairs wouldn’t hurt.
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23rd November 2012 at 9:13 pm
Reverse Engineer says:
@AKanon
Don’t forget the GLOVES!
On Sale Today at Walmart EXCELLENT Chinese Made gloves @ $10/pair, I bought 10 pairs in a variety of sizes
Long lasting, durable, compact and easily stored fungible barter Item! Not real valuable down in FL, but here they are PRICELESS when the temps drop. Worth at least 5lb of Smoked Salmon each IMHO when TSHTF.
RE
http://doomsteaddiner.org
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23rd November 2012 at 10:27 pm
AKAnon says:
Roysil-Nice distinction between “ownership” and “control”. Possession is 9/10ths of the law, right? With PMs, I’d say essentially 100%. If you can’t grab it and take it with you on a moment’s notice, maybe you don’t really own it. Someone else will take if if they have the opportunity.
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23rd November 2012 at 10:29 pm
AKAnon says:
RE-I have many pairs of mittens and gloves myself. Maybe not enough for barter, tho.
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23rd November 2012 at 10:30 pm
Reverse Engineer says:
@AKanon
I got two pairs of KILLER Mittens, one set is Red Fox Fur, the other set Rabbit fur go all the way up the Forearm. I got the Red Fox Mittens in trade from a local trapper here in the Mat Valley, the Rabbit ones I bought at the AK State Fair in 2009 from a furrier there after a bit of dickering for $80. Both sets are solid for days out in the Bush with no fire. I got leather driving gloves to wear under them so I can yank them off quick and still shoot without exposing my skin. Good combo to 50 below easy. They should last me the rest of my life if I can hold onto them.
All the rest of the Gloves I buy now are either for personal convenience of having EXACTLY the right glove for the given temperature or for Barter. I have about 100 different ones, some little Sockgloves, Work Gloves, you name it. I am a Gloves NUT. LOL. Freezing Fingers is not pleasant,and I got no desire to lose them from frostbite.
RE
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23rd November 2012 at 10:50 pm
ecliptix543 says:
‘Tis true, gloves for coping with an arctic wilderness scenario here in FL aren’t at the top of my list, but I still have friends and some extended family members in TN, and it does get cold enough for frostbite occasionally up there. The largest contingent of gloves I own are blue latex chemical-resistant, followed by suede mechanic’s type, then two pairs of nomex fire-resistant pilot’s gloves. Somewhere in my spare room lives a pair of lined leather gloves that are good down to about 20°F – acceptable performance for short duration use here on the two or three nights per year we actually get below freezing. My coat/jacket selection is similar, with most being light to medium duty windbreakers and rain gear. I picked up a recent production M65 field jacket with the liner in case I have to be outside in 30′s or below for extended periods. I’ll probably look around for a surplus ECWS jacket if I can find a good price.
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23rd November 2012 at 2:23 am
AKAnon says:
I have lots of mittens-synthetic, wool, leather & fur. But the ones I use most, by a longshot, are the old leather palm, green canvas and fake fur Army surplus choppers. I have a couple pairs, one 20+ years old and still going strong. Big enough to wear light to moderately thick gloves inside, and if things get really cold, drop a heat pack in each one. I string them so the cuff is up, so I can use the heat packs, but if you deal with a lot of snow, better for them to hang cuff down. I’ve used them to 60+ below back in my dog mushing days. Never froze a finger, but I’ve frozen the ends of a couple toes. Didn’t lose the toes, but they are a little funny shaped. So how did this thread go from the gov’t lying to mittens & frostbitten toes?
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23rd November 2012 at 4:13 am
Stan says:
JR Ewing sleeps wid da fishes.
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23rd November 2012 at 7:34 am
Stucky says:
Stories on Drudge today (Saturday)
In Japan …. adult diapers outsell baby diapers.
In Maine ….. man gets jailed for assaulting his ex-wide with ………… his penis.
Please discuss. lol
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23rd November 2012 at 11:10 am
Reverse Engineer says:
“So how did this thread go from the gov’t lying to mittens & frostbitten toes?”
Thread Hijacking Lite.
RE
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23rd November 2012 at 11:33 am
Stucky's main squeeze says:
Stucky, I love you, mittens or not. Please come back to me, I’m twitching for your manhood and moobs. Please let me have back the Stuckensalami, I need it. We were made for each other, please come back to me!
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23rd November 2012 at 11:48 am
Biggy Mofo says:
ah forgot ’bout you crackers fo’ awhile. Me an’ da homies gots been too busy smoking buds, drinking 40′s an’ jungle juice, an’ firing up some fine roxors. we’s've been celebrating bitchez! Our main nigga Barack won ag’in, an’ he’s gonna be handing out mo’ free sheeit fo’ us black folks than you can imagine.
Looks like yo’ taxes is going up, up, up. Tough sheeit, you honkie fucks. we’s an’ da Mexicans is gonna gots four mo’ years o’ watching Jerry, hanging out in our free cribs, an’ running down ta da swapmeet wif our EBT/SNAP cards ta git all da finer things in life.
You dum crackers bettah git yo’ whitey asses ta werk, you gonna be paying an’ paying. Welfare iz going up, an’ we’s be making shorties faster than fat po-po can eat donuts. You dum crackers aren’t ever gonna git yourselves another prezident, we’s own yo’ asses now an’ forever. Enjoy working yo’ asses off in da coming years. we’s'll drink some malt colt 45 an’ smoke uh blunt in yo’ honor! brace yo’self foo’!
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23rd November 2012 at 11:59 am
Thunderbird says:
Reverse Engineer: How did this thread go from government lying to mittens? Simple, it’s called bait & switch. It is a tactic to change the subject. Maybe the subject is to hot to talk about?
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23rd November 2012 at 12:14 pm
Thunderbird says:
Reverse Engineer: Like this goof ball above Biggy Mofo talking his retarded rant.
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23rd November 2012 at 12:17 pm
Kill Bill says:
“….the other set Rabbit fur go all the way up the Forearm” ~RE
Uh huh. Do you also have a tiara to wear with that?
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23rd November 2012 at 3:59 pm
Reverse Engineer says:
No tiara, but matching Mukluks for the Rabbit Fur Mittens. Haven’t been able to acquire a matching pair of Mukluks for the Red Fox Fur Mittens as of yet. Wicked expensive and I am no longer teaching the daughter of the trapper who traded me the Red Fox ones, so I gotta buy ‘em if I am gonna have ‘em. Best price quoted by the Anchorage furrier on this so far is $700. Too much for Mukluks, sorry.
RE
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23rd November 2012 at 8:48 pm
Kill Bill says:
I am no longer teaching the daughter of the trapper -RE
You should, IMO, gloves or not.
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23rd November 2012 at 8:50 pm
Reverse Engineer says:
Oh, also the Rabbit Fur stuff is a complete set, I also have a matching Rusike Style hat in Rabbit Fur that Matches the Mittens and Mukluks. I bought it on Canal Street in NYC more than 30 years ago.
RE
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23rd November 2012 at 8:55 pm